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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2001

Overview of Probabilistic Risk Assessment at NASA: Past, Present and Future

PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) adds the "probability" dimension to the traditional "deterministic" dimension of engineering and safety analyses. Although PRA, as a discipline, has been the evolutionary product of only the last couple of decades, much of the underlying methodology has been in use for a long time. In fact, the concept of probability for describing the likelihood that rare events happen is ancient and dates from Ancient Greece. Our vision is for NASA to achieve world-class state-of-the-art capability in performing and using PRA in technical and management decisions. Since NASA is a leader in many technical fields in which it is involved, we hope, before long, to see NASA become a leader in this field also.

Stamatelatos, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Development of the J-2X Engine for the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle and the Ares V Cargo Launch Vehicle: Building on the Apollo Program for Lunar Return Missions

The United States (U.S.) Vision for Space Exploration has directed NASA to develop two new launch vehicles for sending humans to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. In January 2006, NASA streamlined its hardware development approach for replacing the Space Shuttle after it is retired in 2010. Benefits of this approach include reduced programmatic and technical risks and the potential to return to the Moon by 2020 by developing the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) propulsion elements now, with full extensibility to future Ares V Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV) lunar systems. The Constellation Program selected the Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne J-2X engine to power the Ares I Upper Stage Element and the Ares V Earth Departure Stage (EDS). This decision was reached during the Exploration Systems Architecture Study and confirmed after the Exploration Launch Projects Office performed a variety of risk analyses, commonality assessments, and trade studies. This paper narrates the evolution of that decision; describes the performance capabilities expected of the J-2X design, including potential commonality challenges and opportunities between the Ares I and Ares V launch vehicles; and provides a current status of J-2X design, development, and hardware testing activities. This paper also explains how the J-2X engine effort mitigates risk by testing existing engine hardware and designs; building on the Apollo Program (1961 to 1975), the Space Shuttle Program (1972 to 2010); and consulting with Apollo era experts to derive other lessons learned to deliver a human-rated engine that is on an aggressive development schedule, with its first demonstration flight in 2012.

Greene, WIlliam↗

NASA NTRS2013

Why an Eye Limiting Display Resolution Matters

Many factors affect the suitability of an out-the-window simulator visual system. Contrast, brightness, resolution, field-of-view, update rate, scene content and a number of other criteria are common factors often used to define requirements for simulator visual systems. For the past 7 years, NASA has worked with the USAF on the Operational Based Vision Assessment Program. The purpose of this program has been to provide the USAF School of Aerospace Medicine with a scientific testing laboratory to study human vision and testing standards in an operationally relevant environment. It was determined early in the design that current commercial and military training systems wern't well suited for the available budget as well as the highly research oriented requirements. During various design review meetings, it was determined the OBVA requirements were best met by using commercial-off-the-shelf equipment to minimize technical risk and costs. In this paper we will describe how the simulator specifications were developed in order to meet the research objectives and the resulting architecture and design considerations. In particular we will discuss the image generator architecture and database developments to meet eye limited resolution.

Kato, Kenji Hiroshi↗

NASA NTRS2016

Why an Eye Limiting Display Resolution Matters and How to Achieve It

Many factors affect the suitability of an out-the-window simulator visual system. Contrast, brightness, resolution, field-of-view, update rate, scene content and a number of other criteria are common factors often used to define requirements for simulator visual systems. Since 2008, NASA has worked with the USAF on the Operational Based Vision Assessment Program. The purpose of this program has been to provide the USAF School of Aerospace Medicine with a scientific testing laboratory to study human vision and testing standards in an operationally relevant environment. It was determined early in the design that current commercial and military training systems weren't well suited for the available budget as well as the highly research oriented requirements. During various design review meetings, it was determined the OBVA requirements were best met by using commercial-off-the-shelf equipment to minimize technical risk and costs. In this paper we will describe how the simulator specifications were developed in order to meet the research objectives and the resulting architecture and design considerations. In particular we will discuss the image generator architecture, database developments to meet eye limited resolution, and future reusablity in other projects.

flight simulator↗

DOE OSTI2020

FutureGen 2.0 Technical Data

This is a comprehensive collection of all original surface and subsurface technical data, as well as various derivative subsurface models, collected from the FutureGen 2.0 project. This collection of data has been vetted for confidential or sensitive documents.

CCUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Towards Resolving the Risk of Turbine Collision on Fish: FY21-22 Seedling Report Phase I

The most important concern for permitting tidal and river turbines is the collision risk of marine animals with the turbine blades. Our understanding of the risk to individual fish from colliding with turbine blades is poor; if these collisions were to occur, it is unknown whether fish will sustain recoverable injuries or be killed. Equally unknown is the impact these collisions might have on populations, particularly for threatened, endangered, or commercially managed fish species. In addition to observations of interactions of fish with turbines, numerical models need to be developed or expanded to predict impacts on fish populations. These models could replace expensive and technically challenging monitoring programs in high energy, often murky, tidal or river waters. In this project, a multi-pronged approach was taken to understand the state of knowledge for collision risk of fish with turbines and build a pathway forward. This approach included a workshop with experts, a literature review of modeling and empirical studies, the development of a research framework, and the identification of case studies to address through future work. This project is a first step towards the future development of effective and robust numerical models for assessing the collision risk of fish around turbines. This will achieve a balanced and improved estimate of the severity of collision risk to fish at the population scale.

Garavelli, Lysel↗

NASA NTRS2011

SOFIA Program SE and I Lessons Learned

Once a "Troubled Project" threatened with cancellation, the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) Program has overcome many difficult challenges and recently achieved its first light images. To achieve success, SOFIA had to overcome significant deficiencies in fundamental Systems Engineering identified during a major Program restructuring. This presentation will summarize the lessons learn in Systems Engineering on the SOFIA Program. After the Program was reformulated, an initial assessment of Systems Engineering established the scope of the problem and helped to set a list of priorities that needed to be work. A revised Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) was written to address the new Program structure and requirements established in the approved NPR7123.1A. An important result of the "Technical Planning" effort was the decision by the Program and Technical Leadership team to re-phasing the lifecycle into increments. The reformed SOFIA Program Office had to quickly develop and establish several new System Engineering core processes including; Requirements Management, Risk Management, Configuration Management and Data Management. Implementing these processes had to consider the physical and cultural diversity of the SOFIA Program team which includes two Projects spanning two NASA Centers, a major German partnership, and sub-contractors located across the United States and Europe. The SOFIA Program experience represents a creative approach to doing "System Engineering in the middle" while a Program is well established. Many challenges were identified and overcome. The SOFIA example demonstrates it is never too late to benefit from fixing deficiencies in the System Engineering processes.

Ray, Ronald J.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States

The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force, jointly convened by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Ocean Council (NOC), began its work in August 2015. The Task Force has focused its efforts on three primary tasks: 1) updating scenarios of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise, 2) integrating the global scenarios with regional factors contributing to sea level change for the entire U.S. coastline, and 3) incorporating these regionally appropriate scenarios within coastal risk management tools and capabilities deployed by individual agencies in support of the needs of specific stakeholder groups and user communities. This technical report focuses on the first two of these tasks and reports on the production of gridded relative sea level (RSL, which includes both ocean-level change and vertical land motion) projections for the United States associated with an updated set of GMSL scenarios. In addition to supporting the longer-term Task Force effort, this new product will be an important input into the USGCRP Sustained Assessment process and upcoming Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) due in 2018. This report also serves as a key technical input into the in-progress USGCRP Climate Science Special Report (CSSR).

Sweet, William V.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guide for States

The Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guide for States provides state energy offices, public utility commissions, and partner organizations with a structured framework for integrating cyber-resilient engineering practices into energy planning, grantmaking, interconnection processes, and workforce development. As grid digitalization and the adoption of distributed energy resources accelerate, states face expanding cyber-physical risks that traditional cybersecurity measures alone cannot fully address. CIE offers a proactive, consequence-focused engineering methodology that emphasizes eliminating or mitigating high-impact failure modes through design, physical controls, and operational safeguards. The guide outlines the 12 core CIE principles, demonstrates their application through state-focused use cases—including grant evaluation rubrics, interconnection reviews, allow-list development, and training programs—and provides practical tools such as scoring frameworks, impact assessment methods, and implementation checklists. It also highlights pathways for state–utility collaboration and opportunities for technical assistance from national laboratories. By adopting CIE, states can enhance grid reliability, reduce lifecycle costs, strengthen supply-chain assurance, and foster a security-aware engineering culture that aligns with broader resilience and modernization goals. November 2025

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guide for States

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1971

Orbiting propellent depot safety. Volume 2: Technical discussion

The results of a study assessing the gross requirements and concomitant safety hazards associated with the operation of several configurations of orbiting propellant depots (OPD) are presented. The major structural and operational aspects of the integral, semimodular, and modular concepts are described. The concepts are evaluated to determine their safety hazards, and emphasis is placed on propellant transfer to and from the OPD. The study indicates that a modular mode of depot resupply is desirable regardless of the OPD configuration. This resupply mode requires no flow transfer to resupply either the semimodular or modular OPD. Of the three concepts, the semimodular appears to provide the best operational advantage and lowest safety risk.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2023

Status Report on Regulatory Criteria Applicable to the Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)

Although the interest in the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in nuclear energy is increasing rapidly, at present their implementation is limited. This rapid increase in interest is not surprising considering that implementing AI and ML technology would allow for continuous monitoring, facilitate the implementation of predictive maintenance with optimized staffing plans, enable automation and autonomy opportunities that could drastically reduce fixed operation and maintenance costs, and provide training for operations and maintenance. Other industries are using AI for construction, and in the nuclear arena AI could provide great benefit in decommissioning activities. The ability of AI and ML to operate in real time vastly increases their potential impact. Before AI can be used in design, operations, or as a regulatory tool, the specifics on the regulations applicable to the use of AI for nuclear power applications need to be established. The difficulty is that the specific use cases will dictate the applicability of regulations. For example, even within the application domain associated with operations, the regulations might vary if the AI is used to create a virtual reference for plant operations or is used for training, optimization of maintenance intervals, prioritization of maintenance activities, etc. Different still is if the AI is to be used for design or setting technical specifications, which will introduce additional requirements. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing reviews are based on an applicant’s design meeting its performance assessment based on (1) safety goals and objectives, (2) deterministic and/or probabilistic analysis of accident scenarios, and (3) quantitative assessment of design alternatives against the safety goals and objectives using accepted engineering tools, methodologies, and performance criteria. The current regulatory framework does not explicitly address AI or autonomous control. However, as implementing AI technology will require the use of a digital platform, it must meet the requirements of an instrumentation and control (I&C) system. The regulatory requirements for AI, which will be incorporated into the I&C system, will be very dependent on how it is used (i.e., its functionality, safety classification, etc.). The licensing process is primarily risk-based with the identification of components and systems as nonsafety, important to safety, or safety related. A risk-informed approach allows further gradation of components and systems based on risk metrics such as core damage frequency or large early release fractions. Thus, the use cases and the risk categorization of impacted systems and components will determine the regulatory requirements. Regardless of how AI is used it presents new opportunities for risk-informing operating, maintenance, and regulatory decisions. Trustworthiness, transparency, and the ability to validate and verify the results will be paramount in showing that the systems and plant still meet their performance requirements. This report describes the results of research to identify regulatory implications of AI technologies and their uses. Specifically, this report reviews current regulatory guidance relevant to the application of AI for design (including design changes or new designs including advanced reactors), construction, operations, training, maintenance, research, testing, and as a regulatory tool. AI can be automated at different levels from purely informative purposes to autonomous controls. The focus of this review included determination of constraints on the application of AI technology, identification of any regulatory gaps or uncertainties, and clarification of anticipated technical basis information likely to be important for regulatory acceptance of these technologies. Currently, any use of AI at nuclear power plants is focused on nonsafety-related applications. The NRC and other regulatory bodies are evaluating providing guidance to address gaps rather than create new regulations to address the use of AI and ML. This approach seems to be the best to encourage AI development without adding regulatory uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2010

GN and C Design Overview and Flight Test Results from NASA's Max Launch Abort System (MLAS)

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) designed, developed and flew the alternative Max Launch Abort System (MLAS) as risk mitigation for the baseline Orion spacecraft launch abort system (LAS) already in development. The NESC was tasked with both formulating a conceptual objective system (OS) design of this alternative MLAS as well as demonstrating this concept with a simulated pad abort flight test. The goal was to obtain sufficient flight test data to assess performance, validate models/tools, and to reduce the design and development risks for a MLAS OS. Less than 2 years after Project start the MLAS simulated pad abort flight test was successfully conducted from Wallops Island on July 8, 2009. The entire flight test duration was 88 seconds during which time multiple staging events were performed and nine separate critically timed parachute deployments occurred as scheduled. Overall, the as-flown flight performance was as predicted prior to launch. This paper provides an overview of the guidance navigation and control (GN&C) technical approaches employed on this rapid prototyping activity. This paper describes the methodology used to design the MLAS flight test vehicle (FTV). Lessons that were learned during this rapid prototyping project are also summarized.

Dennehy, Cornelius J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LIS-Hydro: Authoritative Source for OCONUS Hydro-Intelligence

U.S. military forces are often tasked to participate in a variety of transboundary water-related decision-making activities, including humanitarian assistance operations through Department of State tasking, support of in-country infrastructure development activities that help develop or improve diplomatic relationships, and support of transboundary water treaty negotiations or disputes to reduce risk of conflict caused by water security issues. The U.S. intelligence communities have identified the coordination over shared water resources as an area of significant concern to U.S. national security (U.S. National Defense Strategy, 2018). Such transboundary water issues are projected to intensify in the future under increasingly complex population dynamics, political tensions due to parallel issues, and a changing climate. A 2017 joint NASA, USACE/RDC, and U.S. Air Force co-sponsored workshop revealed a lack of sufficient decision support tools and access to timely technical and contextual information needed to assess and respond to potential water-related threats around the world. The need for an integrated operational service, with the capacity to combine and synthesize hydrological modeling, assimilation, forecasting, and visualization capabilities across the U.S. Government, was highlighted as a key recommendation. In direct response, a subset of the U.S. Department of Defense, National Intelligence Community, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory are collaborating on the development of a fully integrated hydro-modeling and streamflow prediction system (i.e., LIS-Hydro). Completion of the project and sustainment of the operational capability by Air Force Weather will establish a national asset to assist federal agencies implement government-wide strategies around water resources (U.S. Global Water Strategy, 2017). The hydrological products and services will, for the very first time, establish a routinely available authoritative source of global water intelligence information supporting war-fighters, planners, and decision makers at all echelons and services of the U.S. military, Federal government, and intelligence community. A summary of the interagency scientific collaboration in addressing some of the key gaps and needs identified during the 2017 workshop will be presented.

Land Information System↗

DOE OSTI2020

Technical Resilience Navigator

The Technical Resilience Navigator (TRN) is a systematic approach to identifying vulnerabilities with energy and water systems, and prioritizing solutions that reduce risk. The ultimate outcome of the TRN is a set of actionable resilience solutions that address the site's most important gaps in resilience and enhance the ability to maintain mission continuity. The TRN is designed to step users through this planning process, providing a framework to: assign roles and responsibilities; collect and document information and data; document key inputs and outputs for each of the TRN modules (Site Level Planning, Baseline Development, Risk Assessment, Solution Development, and Solution Prioritization); document prioritized list of resilience solutions; and track progress through the entire process. Currently "software as a service" at the listed website.

Rotondo, Julia↗

NASA NTRS2008

Review of NASA's Exploration Technology Development Program: An Interim Report

NASA requested that a committee under the auspices of the National Research Council's Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board carry out an assessment of NASA's Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP). Organizationally, this program functions under the direction of NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate and is charged with developing new technologies that will enable NASA to conduct future human and robotic exploration missions, while reducing mission risk and cost. The Committee to Review NASA's Exploration Technology Development Program has been tasked to examine how well the program is aligned with the stated objectives of the President's Vision for Space Exploration (VSE), to identify gaps in the program, and to assess the quality of the research. The full statement of task is given in Appendix A. The committee consists of 25 members and includes a cross section of senior executives, engineers, researchers, and other aerospace professionals drawn from industry, universities, and government agencies with expertise in virtually all the technical fields represented within the program.

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sizing and Performance Analysis of a MW-Class Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (Eap) System for A Parallel Hybrid Turboprop Concept

Aircraft electrification has emerged as a pivotal research and development focus in the 21st century, gaining international momentum as a strategic approach to curtail fuel consumption and emissions in the civil aviation sector. Under the Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration (EPFD) project, NASA and industry partners are raising the technical readiness, addressing integration challenges and gathering data for future standards and regulations for demonstrate Megawatt (MW) class Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) systems which can be utilized on regional turboprop or single aisle transports. With the rapid emergence of novel EAP concepts, risk reduction efforts are focused on developing the capabilities to evaluate the impacts of electrification at the conceptual design level where high variability in the EAP system architecture must be accounted for. This paper details an integrated, approach to parametric sizing of multi-MW EAP systems with the primary goal of assessing vehicle-level performance sensitivities to variations in electrical system component-level performance metrics. The focus of this work is to investigate the degree to which EAP component parameters such as specific power, efficiency, and energy density impact range and overall fuel savings.

EAP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sizing and Performance Analysis of a MegaWatt-Class Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) System for a Parallel Hybrid Turboprop Concept

EAP↗