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DOE OSTI2025

Multitaper Magnitude‐Squared Coherence for Time Series With Missing Data: Understanding Oscillatory Processes Traced by Multiple Observables

To explore the hypothesis of a common source of variability in two time series, observers may estimate the magnitude-squared coherence (MSC), which is a frequency-domain view of the cross correlation. For time series that do not have uniform observing cadence, MSC can be estimated using Welch's overlapping segment averaging. However, multitaper has superior statistical properties to Welch's method in terms of the tradeoff between bias, variance, and bandwidth. The classical multitaper technique has recently been extended to accommodate time series with underlying uniform observing cadence from which some observations are missing. This situation is common for solar and geomagnetic data sets, which may have gaps due to breaks in satellite coverage, instrument downtime, or poor observing conditions. We demonstrate the scientific use of missing-data multitaper magnitude-squared coherence by detecting known solar mid-term oscillations in simultaneous, missing-data time series of solar Lyman α flux and geomagnetic Disturbance Storm Time index. Due to their superior statistical properties, we recommend that multitaper methods be used for all heliospheric time series with underlying uniform observing cadence.

Astro-statistics techniques (1886)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Detecting hidden transient events in noisy nonlinear time-series

The information impulse function (IIF), running Variance, and local Hölder Exponent are three conceptually different time-series evaluation techniques. These techniques examine time-series for local changes in information content, statistical variation, and point-wise smoothness, respectively. Using simulated data emulating a randomly excited nonlinear dynamical system, this study interrogates the utility of each method to correctly differentiate a transient event from the background while simultaneously locating it in time. Computational experiments are designed and conducted to evaluate the efficacy of each technique by varying pulse size, time location, and noise level in time-series. Our findings reveal that, in most cases, the first instance of a transient event is more easily observed with the information-based approach of IIF than with the Variance and local Hölder Exponent methods. While our study highlights the unique strengths of each technique, the results suggest that very robust and reliable event detection for nonlinear systems producing noisy time-series data can be obtained by incorporating the IIF into the analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multigrid reduction in time with Richardson extrapolation

The advent of exascale computing will leave many users with access to more computational resources than they can simultaneously use, e.g., billion-way parallelism. In particular, this is true for time-dependent simulations that limit parallelism to the spatial domain. One method to add parallelism in time to existing simulation codes and thus take advantage of ever larger compute resources is Multigrid Reduction in Time (MGRIT). The goal is to achieve a smaller time-to-solution through parallelism in time. In this paper, MGRIT is enhanced with Richardson extrapolation in a cost-efficient way to produce a parallel-in-time method with improved accuracy. Overall, this leads to a large improvement in the accuracy per computational cost of MGRIT.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Localized Exponential Time Differencing Method for Shallow Water Equations: Algorithms and Numerical Study

Here, we explore the performance of the exponential time differencing (ETD) method applied to the rotating shallow water equations. Comparing with explicit time stepping of the same order accuracy in time, the ETD algorithms could reduce the computational time in many cases by allowing the use of large time step sizes while still maintaining numerical stability. To accelerate the ETD simulations, we propose a localized approach that synthesizes the ETD method and overlapping domain decomposition. By dividing the original problem into many subdomain problems of smaller sizes and solving them locally, the proposed approach could speed up the calculation of matrix exponential vector products. Several standard test cases for shallow water equations of one or multiple layers are considered. The results show great potential of the localized ETD method for high-performance computing because each subdomain problem can be naturally solved in parallel at every time step.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Real-time estimation of the electron temperature profile in DIII-D by leveraging neural-network surrogate models

Control of both the magnitude and the shape of tokamak profiles will be necessary to achieve stable, high-performance plasmas. In order to reject disturbances in real time, feedback-control algorithms rely on accurate real-time knowledge of the plasma state. When diagnostics alone are insufficient, either because they are limited in number or their measurements are too noisy, observers can be used to combine diagnostic data with a response model to provide a better estimation of different plasma properties. An observer has been developed to estimate the electron temperature profile in real time using both diagnostic data from the Thomson scattering system and a model based on the electron heat transport equation describing the evolution of the electron temperature profile. Here, neural network surrogate models are leveraged to help improve the overall model prediction while staying within computation time constraints for real-time use. The observer algorithm is shown in offline tests to produce smooth profiles that are consistent with both the diagnostic data and the electron heat transport equation. When implemented into the real-time plasma control system, this observer will provide valuable information on the electron temperature profile to many potential feedback-control applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Multigrid Reduction-in-Time for Method-of-Lines Discretizations of Linear Advection

Parallel-in-time methods for partial differential equations (PDEs) have been the subject of intense development over recent decades, particularly for diffusion-dominated problems. It has been widely reported in the literature, however, that many of these methods perform quite poorly for advection-dominated problems. In this report we analyze the particular iterative parallel-in-time algorithm of multigrid reduction-in-time (MGRIT) for discretizations of constant-wave-speed linear advection problems. We focus on common method-of-lines discretizations that employ upwind finite differences in space and Runge-Kutta methods in time. Using a convergence framework we developed in previous work, we prove for a subclass of these discretizations that, if using the standard approach of rediscretizing the fine-grid problem on the coarse grid, robust MGRIT convergence with respect to CFL number and coarsening factor is not possible. This poor convergence and non-robustness is caused, at least in part, by an inadequate coarse-grid correction for smooth Fourier modes in space-time known as characteristic components. We propose an alternative coarse-grid operator that provides a better correction of these modes. This coarse-grid operator is related to previous work and uses a semi-Lagrangian discretization combined with an implicitly treated truncation error correction. Theory and numerical experiments show the proposed coarse-grid operator yields fast MGRIT convergence for many of the method-of-lines discretizations considered, including for both implicit and explicit discretizations of high order. Parallel results demonstrate speed-up over sequential time-stepping.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of soil radon ( 222 Rn) and thoron ( 220 Rn) time series

In this paper, we present results of Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) of soil Radon ( 222 Rn) and Thoron ( 220 Rn) time series to examine the scaling and multifractal features. Data consists of 15,692 measurements taken each over forty-minute interval. RTM 1688-2, 222 Rn/ 220 Rn electronic device has been used for measurement purposes. Seasonal periodicities have been removed from the data and MF-DFA was employed on de-seasonalized data. Original 222 Rn and 220 Rn time series have been converted into surrogate and shuffled time series. MFDFA has also been applied to the surrogate and shuffled series to examine the multifractality nature. Results of the study show that $^{222}_{Orig}Rn$, $^{222}_{Surr}Rn$ and $^{220}_{Orig}Rn$, $^{220}_{Surr}Rn$ time series are longrange positively correlated and an increase or decrease in either of radionuclide concentrations will be followed by another increase or decrease of concentrations in future measurements. The $^{220}_{Shuff}Rn$ time series has an independent or short-range dependent structure called white noise and the shuffled time series exhibit a very weak multifractality.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spatial resolution of different discretizations over long-time for the Dirac equation with small potentials

In this report we compare the long-time error bounds and spatial resolution of finite difference methods with different spatial discretizations for the Dirac equation with small electromagnetic potentials characterized by $\varepsilon \in (0, 1]$ a dimensionless parameter. We begin with the simple and widely used finite difference time domain (FDTD) methods, and establish rigorous error bounds of them, which are valid up to the time at $O(1/\varepsilon)$. In the error estimates, we pay particular attention to how the errors depend explicitly on the mesh size $h$ and time step $\tau$ as well as the small parameter $\varepsilon$. Based on the results, in order to obtain "correct" numerical solutions up to the time at $O(1/\varepsilon)$, the $\varepsilon$-scalability (or meshing strategy requirement) of the FDTD methods should be taken as $h = O(\varepsilon^{1/2})$ and $\tau = O(\varepsilon^{1/2})$. To improve the spatial resolution capacity, we apply the Fourier spectral method to discretize the Dirac equation in space. Error bounds of the resulting finite difference Fourier pseudospectral (FDFP) methods show that they exhibit uniform spatial errors in the long-time regime, which are optimal in space as suggested by the Shannon's sampling theorem. Extensive numerical results are reported to confirm the error bounds and demonstrate that they are sharp.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Neural-based time series forecasting of loss of coolant accidents in nuclear power plants

During the last few years, deep learning in neural networks has demonstrated impressive successes in the areas of computer vision, speech and image recognition, text generation, and many others. However, sensitive engineering areas such as nuclear engineering benefited less from these efficient techniques. In this work, deep learning expert systems are utilized to model and predict time series progression of a design-basis nuclear accident, featuring a loss of coolant accident. Two major findings are accomplished in this work. First, the ability to train expert systems with high accuracy, which could help nuclear power plant operators to figure out plant responses during the accident. Second, building fast, efficient, and accurate deep models to simulate nuclear phenomena, which could be valuable to nuclear computational science. In this work, large amount of time series data is obtained from simulation tools by simulating different conditions of the base-case/nominal accident scenario. Four critical outputs/responses are monitored during the accident (e.g. temperature, pressure, break flow rate, water level). Two approaches are adopted in this work. The first approach is to use feedforward deep neural networks (DNN) to fit all time steps and outputs in a single model. The second approach is to use long short-term memory (LSTM) to fit all time steps together for each reactor response separately. Both DNN and LSTM demonstrate very good performance in predicting the test and base-case scenarios, with accuracy as low as 92% and as high as 99%, where these test scenarios are unknown to the expert systems and are not included in the model training. In addition, both approaches demonstrate a significant reduction in computational costs, as the deep expert system is able to accurately predict the accident 100,000 times faster than the original simulation tool. Given sufficient data, the methodology adopted in this study demonstrates that DNN/LSTM expert systems can be used as a decision support system to model advanced time series phenomena within nuclear power plants with high accuracy and negligible computational costs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Parallelized real-time physics codes for plasma control on DIII-D

A real-time safe multi-threading library was developed on the DIII-D plasma control system to optimize the real-time TORBEAM and real-time STRIDE physics codes. These physics codes are crucial for future fusion power plant operation as they provide information about electron cyclotron wave propagation and heating as well as inform about ideal plasma stability limits. The real-time TORBEAM code executed consistently in under 20 ms while the real-time STRIDE code computes in 100 ms. The multi-threading library developed in this work can be applied to other real-time physics-based codes that will be crucial for the next generation of fusion devices.

DIII-D↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bridging the gap: Deploying AI-based Models in Real-Time Fusion Plasma Control Systems

Achieving reliable real-time control in fusion plasma experiments requires strict timing guarantees across entire control algorithms. In earlier work by Abbate et al. (2023), we demonstrated the feasibility of neural-network-based control algorithms on the DIII-D tokamak using the internally developed open-source Keras2C library for model conversion into C (Conlin et al. (2021)). However, the initial implementations relied on data buffering and branching logic outside the neural network code, causing variability in execution times. Subsequent deployments on DIII-D and KSTAR—including the RTCAKENN algorithm for kinetic profile reconstruction—proved that minimizing branching and buffering throughout the pipeline yields consistent millisecond-level cycle times under real experimental conditions (Shousha et al. (2023)). However, keeping pace with rapidly evolving AI frameworks (e.g. PyTorch) is challenging. Finally, we, therefore, propose a community-driven open-source effort to expand the tool, enabling real-time deployment across diverse systems that require strictly bounded execution times.

AI-based models↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Feynman-Kac based numerical method for the exit time probability of a class of transport problems

The exit time probability, which gives the likelihood that an initial condition leaves a prescribed region of the phase space of a dynamical system at, or before, a given time, is arguably one of the most natural and important transport problems. In this work, we present an accurate and efficient numerical method for computing this probability for systems described by non-autonomous (time-dependent) stochastic differential equations (SDEs) or their equivalent Fokker-Planck partial differential equations. The method is based on the direct approximation of the Feynman-Kac formula that establishes a link between the adjoint Fokker-Planck equation and the forward SDE. The Feynman-Kac formula is approximated using the Gauss-Hermite quadrature rules and piecewise cubic Hermite interpolating polynomials, and a GPU accelerated matrix representation is used to compute the entire time evolution of the exit time probability using a single pass of the algorithm. The method is unconditionally stable, exhibits second order convergence in space, first order convergence in time, and it is straightforward to parallelize. Applications are presented to the advection diffusion of a passive tracer in a fluid flow exhibiting chaotic advection, and to the runaway acceleration of electrons in a plasma in the presence of an electric field, collisions, and radiation damping. Benchmarks against analytical solutions as well as comparisons with explicit and implicit finite difference standard methods for the adjoint Fokker-Planck equation are presented.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scale-dependent spatial variabilities of hydrological exchange flows and transit time in a large regulated river

Hydrological exchange flows (HEF) across the river-aquifer interface and the associated residence time of river water in the aquifer have important implications for contaminant plume migration and biogeochemical processes in the river corridor. HEFs and residence time are influenced by both subsurface physical features and hydrologic forcing related to the transport process, which can exhibit complex spatial and temporal variations. In this study, we used a massively parallel subsurface flow model and a particle-tracking model to study the influences of different control factors on spatial variability of HEFs and residence time distributions (RTD) in the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River in Washington State. A total number of 100M particles were randomly injected in time and space and then tracked in a model domain that covers a 51-km 2 area (15.1M model cells). We used hourly river stages and groundwater levels to drive the model to provide dynamic velocity fields for the particle tracking in the simulation period that was longer than 2 years. The groundwater flow simulation and particle-tracking results provide the first comprehensive assessment of the spatial distribution of HEFs and residence time in large complex river corridors. Overall, our results show that the aquifer hydrogeological structure has the strongest correlation with the extent and magnitude of exchange flux. The residence time exhibits complex patterns that are impacted by all the river geomorphologic, hydrodynamic, and hydrogeologic factors and are strongly correlated with the downwelling ratio of exchange flux. The new insights gained through this study can be used to support the development of reduced-order models of HEFs and RTDs for large complex river systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Necessary and sufficient conditions for quadratic stabilizability of switched systems on non-uniform time domains

In this paper, we consider the quadratic stabilizability via state feedback for a particular class of switched systems that evolve on a non-uniform time domain by introducing time scales theory. The system considered switches between a continuous-time subsystem with variable lengths and a discrete-time subsystem with variable discrete step sizes. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived to guarantee the quadratic stability of this class of switched systems via a switching state feedback law based on the existence of a common positive definite matrix satisfying the quadratic stabilizability condition by considering that the two subsystems are unstable. By state feedback, we mean that the switching among subsystems depends on the system states. Current results for this kind of state switching feedback control are derived only for switched systems evolving on a continuous time domain or a discrete time domain with fixed step’s size. These results are not applicable for the particular class of switched systems where there is a mixing between the continuous and discrete dynamics. This motivates the derivation of a new and more general state feedback control law for switched systems in this work. Here, a numerical example illustrating the results is presented.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Photocathode characterisation for robust PICOSEC Micromegas precise-timing detectors

The PICOSEC Micromegas detector is a precise-timing gaseous detector based on a Cherenkov radiator coupled with a semi-transparent photocathode and a Micromegas amplifying structure, targeting a time resolution of tens of picoseconds for minimum ionising particles. Initial single-pad prototypes have demonstrated a time resolution below σ = 25 ps, prompting ongoing developments to adapt the concept for High Energy Physics applications, where sub-nanosecond precision is essential for event separation, improved track reconstruction and particle identification. The achieved performance is being transferred to robust multi-channel detector modules suitable for large-area detection systems requiring excellent timing precision. To enhance the robustness and stability of the PICOSEC Micromegas detector, research on robust carbon-based photocathodes, including Diamond-Like Carbon (DLC) and Boron Carbide (B 4 C), is pursued. Results from prototypes equipped with DLC and B 4 C photocathodes exhibited a time resolution of σ ≈ 32 ps and σ ≈ 34.5 ps, respectively. Efforts dedicated to improve detector robustness and stability enhance the feasibility of the PICOSEC Micromegas concept for large experiments, ensuring sustained performance while maintaining excellent timing precision.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Storm Surge Modeling as an Application of Local Time-Stepping in MPAS-Ocean

This paper presents the first practical application of local time-stepping (LTS) schemes in the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Ocean (MPAS-O). We use LTS schemes in a single-layer, global ocean model that predicts the storm surge around the eastern coast of the United States during Hurricane Sandy. The variable-resolution meshes used are of unprecedentedly high resolution in MPAS-O, containing cells as small as 125 m wide in Delaware Bay. It is shown that a particular, third-order LTS scheme (LTS3) produces sea-surface height solutions that are of comparable quality to solutions produced by the classical four-stage, fourth-order Runge-Kutta method (RK4) with a uniform time step on the same meshes. Furthermore, LTS3 is up to 35% faster in the best cases considered, where the number of cells using the coarse time-step relative to those using the fine time-step is as low as 1:1. This shows that LTS schemes are viable for use in MPAS-O with the added benefit of substantially less computational cost. The results of these performance experiments inform us of the requirements for efficient mesh design and configuration of LTS regions for LTS schemes. In particular, we see that for LTS to be efficient on a given mesh, it is important to have enough cells using the coarse time-step relative to those using the fine time-step, typically at least 1:5 to see an increase in performance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Time-series forecasting using manifold learning, radial basis function interpolation, and geometric harmonics

We address a three-tier numerical framework based on nonlinear manifold learning for the forecasting of high-dimensional time series, relaxing the “curse of dimensionality” related to the training phase of surrogate/machine learning models. At the first step, we embed the high-dimensional time series into a reduced low-dimensional space using nonlinear manifold learning (local linear embedding and parsimonious diffusion maps). Then, we construct reduced-order surrogate models on the manifold (here, for our illustrations, we used multivariate autoregressive and Gaussian process regression models) to forecast the embedded dynamics. Finally, we solve the pre-image problem, thus lifting the embedded time series back to the original high-dimensional space using radial basis function interpolation and geometric harmonics. The proposed numerical data-driven scheme can also be applied as a reduced-order model procedure for the numerical solution/propagation of the (transient) dynamics of partial differential equations (PDEs). In conclusion, we assess the performance of the proposed scheme via three different families of problems: (a) the forecasting of synthetic time series generated by three simplistic linear and weakly nonlinear stochastic models resembling electroencephalography signals, (b) the prediction/propagation of the solution profiles of a linear parabolic PDE and the Brusselator model (a set of two nonlinear parabolic PDEs), and (c) the forecasting of a real-world data set containing daily time series of ten key foreign exchange rates spanning the time period 3 September 2001–29 October 2020.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Time-resolved Auger–Meitner spectroscopy of the photodissociation dynamics of CS 2

The photodissociation dynamics of UV excited CS 2 are investigated using time-resolved Auger–Meitner (AM) spectroscopy. AM decay is initiated by inner-shell ionisation with a femtosecond duration x-ray (179.9 eV) probe generated by the FERMI free electron laser. The time-delayed x-ray probe removes an electron from the S(2p) orbital leading to secondary emission of a high energy electron through AM decay. We monitor the electron kinetic energy of the AM emission as a function of pump-probe delay and observe time-dependent changes in the spectrum that correlate with the formation of bound, excited-state CS 2 molecules at early times, and CS + S fragments on the picosecond timescale. The results are analysed based on a simplified kinetic scheme that provides a time constant for dissociation of approximately 1.2 ps, in agreement with previous time-resolved x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy measurements (Gabalski, et al 2023 J. Phys. Chem. Lett. 14 7126–7133).

Auger spectroscopy↗