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At least 397 records · Page 22

The Modulation of Tropical Storm Activity in the Western North Pacific by the Madden-Julian Oscillation in GEOS-5 AGCM Experiments

This study examines the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on tropical storm (TS) activity in the western North Pacific, using observations and GEOS-5 simulations at 50-km horizontal resolution. While GEOS-5 produces an MJO of faster propagation and weaker amplitude, it nevertheless reproduces the observed modulation of TS activity by the MJO with the highest TS genesis and increased track density in the active phases of MJO. The study suggests that the simulation of the sub-seasonal variability of TS activity could be improved by improving the simulations of the MJO in climate models.

AGCM↗

Photovoltaic array for Martian surface power

Missions to Mars will require electric power. A leading candidate for providing power is solar power produced by photovoltaic arrays. To design such a power system, detailed information on solar-radiation availability on the Martian surface is necessary. The variation of the solar radiation on the Martian surface is governed by three factors: (1) variation in Mars-Sun distance; (2) variation in solar zenith angle due to Martian season and time of day; and (3) dust in the Martian atmosphere. A major concern is the dust storms, which occur on both local and global scales. However, there is still appreciable diffuse sunlight available even at high opacity, so that solar array operation is still possible. Typical results for tracking solar collectors are also shown and compared to the fixed collectors. During the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer the isolation is relatively high, 2-5 kW-hr/sq m-day, due to the low optical depth of the Martian atmosphere. These seasons, totalling a full terrestrial year, are the likely ones during which manned mission will be carried out.

Appelbaum, J.↗

Photovoltaic arrays for Martian surface power

Missions to Mars will require electric power. A leading candidate for providing power is solar power produced by photovoltaic arrays. To design such a power system, detailed information on solar-radiation availability on the Martian surface is necessary. The variation of the solar radiation on the Martian surface is governed by three factors: (1) variation in Mars-sun distance; (2) variation on solar zenith angle due to Martian season and time of day; and (3) dust in the Martian atmosphere. A major concern is the dust storms, which occur on both local and global scales. However, there is still appreciable diffuse sunlight available even at high opacity, so that solar array operation is still possible. Typical results for tracking solar collectors are also shown and compared to the fixed collectors. During the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer the isolation is relatively high, 2-5 kW-hr/sq m-day due to the low optical depth of the Martian atmosphere. These seasons, totalling a full terrestrial year, are the likely ones during which manned mission will be carried out.

Appelbaum, Joseph↗

Synoptic and Mesoscale Cloud Tracking

The papers in this section include: 1)'Wind Derivation from Geostationary Satellites'; 2) 'The Operational Processing of Wind Estimates from Cloud Motions: Past, Present, and Future'; 3) 'Intercomparision of SMS Wind Sets: A Study Using Rapid Scan Imagery'; 4) 'Mesoscale Wind Fields for a Severe Storm Situation Determined from SMS Cloud Observations'; 5) 'Moisture Convergence Using Satellite-Derived Wind Fields: A Severe Local Storm Case Study'

Wilson, G.↗

A Total Lightning Perspective of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma Supercell

In the early afternoon of 20 May 2013, a storm initiated to the west‐southwest of Newcastle, Oklahoma. This storm would rapidly intensify into the parent supercell of the tornado that struck the city of Moore, Oklahoma. This article describes what contributions total lightning observations from the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array could provide to operational forecasters had these observations been available in real‐time. This effort includes a focus on the GOES‐R pseudo‐geostationary lightning mapper demonstration product as well as the NASA SPoRT / Meteorological Development Laboratory's total lightning tracking tool. These observations and tools identified several contributions. Two distinct lightning jumps at 1908 and 1928 UTC provided a lead time of 19 minutes ahead of severe hail and 26 minutes ahead of the Moore, Oklahoma tornado's touchdown. These observations provide strong situational awareness to forecasters, as the lightning jumps are related to the rapid strengthening of the storm's updraft and mesocyclone and serve as a precursor to the stretching of the storm vortex ahead severe weather.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗

Evaluation of Bogus Vortex Techniques with Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation

The effectiveness of techniques for creating "bogus" vortices in numerical simulations of hurricanes is examined by using the Penn State/NCAR nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) and its adjoint system. A series of four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4-D VAR) experiments is conducted to generate an initial vortex for Hurricane Georges (1998) in the Atlantic Ocean by assimilating bogus sea-level pressure and surface wind information into the mesoscale numerical model. Several different strategies are tested for improving the vortex representation. The initial vortices produced by the 4-D VAR technique are able to reproduce many of the structural features of mature hurricanes. The vortices also result in significant improvements to the hurricane forecasts in terms of both intensity and track. In particular, with assimilation of only bogus sea-level pressure information, the response in the wind field is contained largely within the divergent component, with strong convergence leading to strong upward motion near the center. Although the intensity of the initial vortex seems to be well represented, a dramatic spin down of the storm occurs within the first 6 h of the forecast. With assimilation of bogus surface wind data only, an expected dominance of the rotational component of the wind field is generated, but the minimum pressure is adjusted inadequately compared to the actual hurricane minimum pressure. Only when both the bogus surface pressure and wind information are assimilated together does the model produce a vortex that represents the actual intensity of the hurricane and results in significant improvements to forecasts of both hurricane intensity and track.

Pu, Zhao-Xia↗

Analysis and Forecast of Two Storms Characterized by Extreme Deepening Rates

Between 25 and 27 December 1999 two very intense cyclones, named Lothar and Martin, swept across northern and western France causing substantial life and property loss. In this work, the finite volume general circulation model and data assimilation system (fvDAS) developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA Goddard Space and Flight Center is being used to investigate these storms. In the first part of this article the dynamics of the storms is analyzed, and some important mechanisms are unveiled. The second part describes a set of eleven data assimilation experiments to study the impact of different data types on the automated analyses. Cloud-track winds provided by EUMETSAT and surface winds from QuikSCAT are being used. These data are assimilated with a range of different parameter settings of the forecast error covariance model. The results show that generally the additional wind data set have positive impacts on the analyses: particularly, the analysis of Lothar can be slightly improved by using the Eumetsat winds, and the analysis of Martin can be strongly improved by using the full-resolution QuikSCAT winds with a more localized influence. The third part of this article is focused on the forecast of Lothar which is very well predicted in the 1-5 day range by the fvDAS system.

Reale, Oreste↗

Observations of Deep Ionospheric F-Region Density Depletions with FPMU Instrumentation and their Relationship with the Global Dynamics of the June 22-23, 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

The magnetic storm that commenced on June 22, 2015 was one of the largest storms in the current solar cycle, resulting from an active region on the Sun that produced numerous coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and associated interplanetary shock waves. On June 22 at 18:36 UT the magnetosphere was impacted by the leading-edge shock wave and a sheath carrying a large and highly variable interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with values ranging from +25 to -40 nT. During the subsequent interval from 0000 to 0800 UT, there was a second intensification of the geomagnetic storm resulting from the impact of the CME. We present dramatic responses of simultaneous particle measurements from the high-altitude Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) at high altitudes in the magnetosphere (approx. 9-12 Re) and from the low-altitude (F-region) Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) on board the International Space Station (ISS). We analyze potential causes of these dramatic particle flux dropouts by putting them in the context of storm-time electrodynamics, and support our results with numerical simulations of the global magnetosphere and ionosphere. During the sheath phase of the storm, the MMS spacecraft in the near-earth equatorial plane observed a rapid reconfiguration of the magnetic field near 1923 UT. Initially in the warm plasmasheet, particle flux dropouts were observed as they tracked the plasma-sheet to lobe transitions with the stretching and thinning of the plasmasheet. Anti-sunward flowing O+ ions of ionospheric origin were also measured during this period, confirming that the MMS spacecraft temporarily was in a lobe.

Coffey, Victoria↗

Power Operations of the Mars Exploration Rovers

The rovers of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) project, Spirit (MER-A) and Opportunity (MER-B), safely landed on the surface of Mars three weeks apart during January 2004. Spirit and Opportunity were built and operated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), which is managed by the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) for NASA. Spirit landed at Gusev Crater, 14.8 degrees south of the equator, and operated continuously on the surface of Mars from January 4, 2004 until last contact from Spirit on March 22, 2010. Opportunity landed at Meridiani Planum, a location 2.5 degrees south of the Martian equator. Opportunity operated continuously on the Martian surface from January 25, 2004 until the last received transmission from Opportunity on June 10, 2018. The goal of the MER project was to determine if Mars ever had a habitable environment, in particular, if it ever had water. During their missions, both Spirit and Opportunity found evidence that liquid water once flowed on the surface of Mars. Both Spirit and Opportunity used a 1.33 m2 triple-junction solar array as their power sources. Based on observations of the original Mars rover, the Sojourner rover of the Mars Pathfinder mission that landed on Mars on July 4, 1997, the expectation was that the Martian dust would rapidly accumulate on the solar arrays of Spirit and Opportunity, and that the rovers would not have enough energy to continue operations after 90 Martian days (sols). Instead, due in part to lower dust accumulation rates than expected and numerous dust cleaning events, the Spirit and Opportunity rovers continued to operate on the Martian surface for over 2000 sols (MER-A) and 5000 sols (MER-B), respectively. During this time, the rovers experienced multiple Martian winters and several dust storms. Because the sources of solar array energy loss were known, the solar array energy output offered a method to scientifically estimate the loading and aeolian removal of dust from the solar arrays each sol. The MER Power operations team called this value that they calculated the solar array Dust Factor (DF). Dust Factor was defined as the fraction of sunlight that penetrates the accumulated dust on the surface of the solar array. A Dust Factor of 1.0 would indicate that the solar array was perfectly clean. A Dust Factor of 0.6 would indicate that only 60% of the available sunlight was able to penetrate the accumulated dust on the solar arrays. The MER Power subsystem operations team used the Multi-Mission Power Analysis Tool (MMPAT) to perform these Dust Factor calculations. The MMPAT software tool modeled the behavior of the solar arrays and the batteries as they interacted with the spacecraft power loads over the mission timeline. MMPAT also had knowledge (through telemetry and user inputs) of telemetered Power subsystem voltages and currents, atmospheric opacity (Tau), rover surface location, rover attitude, the planetary tilt and distance of Mars from the sun based on day of year, the instantaneous elevation of the sun based on time of day, temperatures (internal and external), terrain masking, and shadowing (due to the camera mast and antennas). Once all of the known sources of array energy loss are accounted, the remaining difference between the expected array energy and the actual array energy determines the solar array Dust Factor. The assumptions made while determining the Dust Factor are 1) that the single measured atmospheric opacity value (Tau) is constant over the course of the entire sol, 2) there is no measurable solar cell degradation, 3) there are no shorted strings and therefore, 4) all unexpected solar array energy losses are due to accumulated dust on the solar array. Although it cannot provide an absolute measure of dust loading, the determination of solar array Dust Factor provides a useful way of tracking dust accumulation and aeolian dust removal trends on Martian spacecraft. Any spacecraft on the Martian surface is vulnerable to dust, especially solar-powered spacecraft. The Spirit and Opportunity rovers were operational on the Martian surface for much longer than expected due in part to aeolian removal of dust from their solar arrays. The first few dust removal events were a pleasant surprise to the MER operations teams; however, over time a pattern began to arise. In over three Mars Years on the surface, the Power operations team tracked the solar array Dust Factor at Gusev Crater (location of MER-A) and observed that there were several significant dust removal and deposition events in Mars Year (MY) 27, even in the absence of a large dust storm. In MY 28 at Gusev Crater, the large atmospheric opacity (Tau) increase lagged significant dust removal events. Overall at Gusev Crater, there was a pattern of steady dust accumulation on the solar arrays, with a small number of significant dust cleaning events. At Meridiani Planum, where Opportunity rover operated for over seven Mars Years (late MY 26 to mid MY 34), a clear and consistent pattern of dust movement emerged. Meridiani Planum had a predictable, seasonally dependent pattern of gradual and continuous dust accumulation and removal. In summary, this paper explains the reasons for the development of the solar array Dust Factor and how it was used in mission operations. In particular, this paper describes the MMPAT software package, how it models array energy, including the important assumptions, model inputs and sources of error. And finally, this paper will show how the calculated solar array Dust Factor was used at Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum to predict dust accumulation rates and weather patterns, and the importance of this generated data set for current and future solar- powered missions to Mars, such as the InSight lander and the planned Mars Sample Return rover.

Chin, Keith B.↗

Viking radio occultation measurements of the atmosphere and topography of Mars - Data acquired during 1 Martian year of tracking

The results of one Martian year of radio occultation measurements of the atmosphere and topography of Mars obtained using the Viking Orbiters are briefly summarized. Determinations of the vertical distribution of tropospheric gas refractivity and ionospheric electron density obtained from atmospheric Doppler frequency perturbations of the S and X band radio tracking frequencies indicate large meteorological variations, with near-surface temperatures ranging from 150 to 250 K, 5-km atmospheric pressure ranging from 3.5 to 4.8 mbar, inversion layers over the polar caps and dust storms, and seasonal pressure variations. Double- and single-layered upper atmospheric electron density profiles were observed on the sunlit and dark sides of the planet, respectively. A topographic map of the Martian surface, obtained from the limb diffraction effects observed at ingress and egress, is found to agree well with the elevation contours of US Geological survey map M 25M 3 RMC, with the exception of the south polar and Alba Patera regions.

Lindal, G. F.↗

Observations of Deep Ionospheric F-Region Density Depletions with FPMU Instrumentation and Their Relationship with the Global Dynamics of the June 22-23, 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

The magnetic storm that commenced on June 22, 2015 was one of the largest storms in the current solar cycle, resulting from an active region on the Sun that produced numerous coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and associated interplanetary shock waves. On June 22 at 18:36 UT the magnetosphere was impacted by the leading-edge shock wave and a sheath carrying a large and highly variable interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with values ranging from +25 to -40 nT. During the subsequent interval from 0000 to 0800 UT, there was a second intensification of the geomagnetic storm resulting from the impact of the CME. We present dramatic responses of simultaneous particle measurements from the high-altitude Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) at high altitudes in the magnetosphere (approx. 9-12 Re) and from the low-altitude (F-region) Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) on board the International Space Station (ISS). We analyze potential causes of these dramatic particle flux dropouts by putting them in the context of storm-time electrodynamics, and support our results with numerical simulations of the global magnetosphere and ionosphere. During the sheath phase of the storm, the MMS spacecraft in the near-earth equatorial plane observed a rapid reconfiguration of the magnetic field near 1923 UT. Initially in the warm plasma sheet, particle flux dropouts were observed as they tracked the plasma-sheet to lobe transitions with the stretching and thinning of the plasma sheet. Anti-sunward flowing O+ ions of ionospheric origin were also measured during this period, confirming that the MMS spacecraft temporarily was in a lobe.

Coffey, Victoria↗

Analysis of A Severe Dust Storm and Its Impact on Air Quality Conditions Using Wrf-Chem Modeling, Satellite Imagery, and Ground Observations

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of an extreme dust event recorded in the Arabian Peninsula and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) between 31 March and 3 April 2015. Simulations of the dust event with the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Chemistry module (WRF-Chem) were analyzed and verified using MSG-SEVIRI imagery and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the recent 1-km Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm for MODIS Terra/Aqua. Data from the National Centers for Atmospheric Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the upper-air radiosonde observations were used to understand the synoptic of the event. In addition, the impact of the event on atmospheric and air quality conditions is investigated. The Air Quality Index (AQI) was calculated prior, during, and after the event to assess the degradation of air quality conditions. Simulated temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and surface radiation were compared to observations at six monitoring stations in the UAE giving R2 values of 0.84, 0.63, 0.60, and 0.84, respectively. From 1 to 2 April 2015, both observations and simulations showed an average drop in temperature from 33 to 26 °C and radiance reduction from about 950 to 520 Wm−2. The AOD modeled by WRF-Chem showed a good correlation with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements in the UAE with R2 of 0.83. The AQI over the UAE reached hazardous levels during the peak of the dust event before rapidly decreasing to moderate–good air quality levels. This work is the first attempt to demonstrate the potential of using WRF-Chem to estimate AQI over the UAE along with two satellite products (MODIS-MAIAC and MSG-SEVIRI) for dust detection and tracking.

dust storm↗

CO Signatures in Subtropical Convective Clouds and Anvils during CRYSTAL-FACE: An Analysis of Convective Transport and Entrainment using Observations and a Cloud-Resolving Model

Convective systems are an important mechanism in the transport of boundary layer air into the upper troposphere. The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) campaign, in July 2002, was developed as a comprehensive atmospheric mission to improve knowledge of subtropical cirrus systems and their roles in regional and global climate. In situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapor (H2Ov), and total water (H2Ot) aboard NASA's WB-57F aircraft and CO aboard the U.S. Navy's Twin Otter aircraft were obtained to study the role of convective transport. Three flights sampled convective outflow on 11, 16 and 29 July found varying degrees of CO enhancement relative to the free troposphere. A cloud-resolving model used the in situ observations and meteorological fields to study these three systems. Several methods of filtering the observations were devised here using ice water content, relative humidity with respect to ice, and particle number concentration as a means to statistically sample the model results to represent the flight tracks. A weighted histogram based on ice water content observations was then used to sample the simulations for the three flights. In addition, because the observations occurred in the convective outflow cirrus and not in the storm cores, the model was used to estimate the maximum CO within the convective systems. In general, anvil-level air parcels contained an estimated 20-40% boundary layer air in the analyzed storms.

Lopez, Jimena P.↗

CO Signatures in Subtropical Convective Clouds and Anvils During CRYSTAL-FACE: An Analysis of Convective Transport and Entertainment Using Observations and a Cloud-Resolving Model

Convective systems are an important mechanism in the transport of boundary layer air into the upper troposphere. The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) campaign, in July 2002, was developed as a comprehensive atmospheric mission to improve knowledge of subtropical cirrus systems and their roles in regional and global climate. In situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapor (H20v), and total water (H20t) aboard NASA's . WB-57F aircraft and CO aboard the U.S. Navy's Twin Otter aircraft were obtained to study the role of convective transport. Three flights sampled convective outflow on 11, 16 and 29 July found varying degrees of CO enhancement relative to the fiee troposphere. A cloud-resolving model used the in situ observations and meteorological fields to study these three systems. Several methods of filtering the observations were devised here using ice water content, relative humidity with respect to ice, and particle number concentration as a means to statistically sample the model results to represent the flight tracks. A weighted histogram based on ice water content observations was then used to sample the simulations for the three flights. In addition, because the observations occurred in the convective outflow cirrus and not in the storm cores, the model was used to estimate the maximum CO within the convective systems. In general, anvil-level air parcels contained an estimated 20-40% boundary layer air in the analyzed storms.

Lopez, Jimena P.↗

Representation of Tropical Storms by the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2

This study examines the veracity of the tropical cyclone (TC) statistics estimated from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) global atmospheric reanalysis, focusing on the climatological-mean genesis regions, tracks and their lifetime maximum intensity, as well as the interannual and intraseasonal variations in TC activity. The results are validated against the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data for 1980-2016. MERRA-2 represents the spatial distribution of the TC genesis location and the tracks realistically well over all main development regions (MDRs), but with notable discrepancies including too weak TC activity over the Arabian Sea and the South China Sea and too strong activity over the North Indian Ocean. Over the western North Pacific and the North Atlantic, MERRA-2 underestimates recurving TCs steered by background westerlies in the mid-latitudes and thereby exaggerates northwestward moving TCs, resulting in an overestimate of the landfall probability in East Asia and North America. Excessive development of TCs over the Bay of Bengal also tends to exaggerate the landfall probability in India. In spite of the discrepancies in the annual TC number, the seasonal variation of TC genesis is realistic in MERRA-2. MERRA-2 also captures the TC intensity relationship between the minimum pressure and the maximum surface wind speed at the mature stage, although the maximum intensity is weaker than in the observations. While MERRA-2 tends to reproduce the interannual variations of the observed TC number and the power dissipation index (PDI), the level of accuracy depends on the region. MERRA-2 describes the changes in the TC genesis region and tracks realistically according to the different phases of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), although it is less realistic over the North Indian Ocean.

International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewa↗

The Remarkable 2024 North Atlantic Mid‐Season Hurricane Lull

Abstract The 2024 North Atlantic (hereafter Atlantic) hurricane season started quickly, with the earliest Category 5 on record (Beryl) and three hurricanes forming through 14 August. Following Ernesto's dissipation on 20 August, the Atlantic hurricane season became extremely quiet during the climatological peak of hurricane season, with only one Category 2 hurricane (Francine) and one tropical storm through 23 September. Several environmental factors likely contributed to this unexpected, prolonged lull. During mid‐to‐late August, subseasonal conditions were broadly favorable for Atlantic hurricanes, but a northward shift in African easterly wave emergence latitude yielded fewer tropical cyclone seed disturbances that also traversed unfavorably cool ocean water. During early‐to‐mid September, subseasonal variability driven by the Madden‐Julian oscillation was less conducive to hurricane activity, with several bouts of increased vertical wind shear across the central Atlantic. Throughout most of the lull, the tropical Atlantic was anomalously dry and subsident, suppressing hurricane formation chances. Plain Language Summary The 2024 North Atlantic (hereafter Atlantic) hurricane season was anticipated to be extremely active, with seasonal forecasts calling for a potentially historic season. Following a busy start including the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record (Beryl), the season became very quiet between 20 August–23 September, with only one Category 2 hurricane (Francine) and one tropical storm forming. Following the lull, the Atlantic became extremely busy again, with seven hurricanes forming from 25 September through the end of the season–the most on record for this period. This paper focuses on the surprising lull and attributes it to several different factors, including a late‐August northward shift in African easterly wave tracks (organized thunderstorm complexes spanning thousands of kilometers that often serve as Atlantic hurricane seeds). This northward shift brought these systems out over colder water and into a drier airmass, suppressing their hurricane formation chances. During the first 3 weeks of September, a large‐scale tropical phenomenon known as the Madden‐Julian oscillation, resulted in increased sinking motion, drier mid‐levels and increased vertical wind shear–all of which typically reduce Atlantic hurricane activity. Overall, the lull demonstrates how seed disturbances and other environmental factors can strongly modulate aggregate seasonal tropical cyclone activity. Key Points Following an active start, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane was quiet during the climatological peak with only 1 tropical storm and 1 hurricane The lull was not anticipated by seasonal forecasting agencies, which called for an extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season Factors reducing storm count included a northward shift in African easterly waves, broad‐scale subsidence, and reduced mid‐level moisture

Klotzbach, P J↗

Impact of CAMEX-4 Data Sets for Hurricane Forecasts using a Global Model

This study explores the impact on hurricane data assimilation and forecasts from the use of dropsondes and remote-sensed moisture profiles from the airborne Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) system. We show that the use of these additional data sets, above those from the conventional world weather watch, has a positive impact on hurricane predictions. The forecast tracks and intensity from the experiments show a marked improvement compared to the control experiment where such data sets were excluded. A study of the moisture budget in these hurricanes showed enhanced evaporation and precipitation over the storm area. This resulted in these data sets making a large impact on the estimate of mass convergence and moisture fluxes, which were much smaller in the control runs. Overall this study points to the importance of high vertical resolution humidity data sets for improved model results. We note that the forecast impact from the moisture profiling data sets for some of the storms is even larger than the impact from the use of dropwindsonde based winds.

Kamineni, Rupa↗

The Origin and Evolution of Saturn's 2011-2012 Stratospheric Vortex

The planet-encircling springtime storm in Saturn's troposphere (December 2010-July 2011, Fletcher, L.N. et al. [2011]. Science 332, 1413-1414; Sánchez-Lavega, A. et al. [2011]. Nature 475, 71-74; Fischer, G. et al. [2011]. Nature 475, 75-77) produced dramatic perturbations to stratospheric temperatures, winds and composition at mbar pressures that persisted long after the tropospheric disturbance had abated. Thermal infrared (IR) spectroscopy from the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS), supported by ground-based IR imaging from the VISIR instrument on the Very Large Telescope and the MIRSI instrument on NASA's IRTF, is used to track the evolution of a large, hot stratospheric anticyclone between January 2011 and March 2012. The evolutionary sequence can be divided into three phases: (I) the formation and intensification of two distinct warm airmasses near 0.5 mbar between 25 and 35degN (B1 and B2) between January-April 2011, moving westward with different zonal velocities, B1 residing directly above the convective tropospheric storm head; (II) the merging of the warm airmasses to form the large single 'stratospheric beacon' near 40degN (B0) between April and June 2011, disassociated from the storm head and at a higher pressure (2 mbar) than the original beacons, a downward shift of 1.4 scale heights (approximately 85 km) post-merger; and (III) the mature phase characterised by slow cooling (0.11 +/- 0.01 K/day) and longitudinal shrinkage of the anticyclone since July 2011. Peak temperatures of 221.6 +/- 1.4 K at 2 mbar were measured on May 5th 2011 immediately after the merger, some 80 K warmer than the quiescent surroundings. From July 2011 to the time of writing, B0 remained as a long-lived stable stratospheric phenomenon at 2 mbar, moving west with a near-constant velocity of 2.70 +/- 0.04 deg/day (24.5 +/- 0.4 m/s at 40degN relative to System III longitudes). No perturbations to visible clouds and hazes were detected during this period. With no direct tracers of motion in the stratosphere, we use thermal windshear calculations to estimate clockwise peripheral velocities of 200-400 m/s at 2 mbar around B0. The peripheral velocities of the two original airmasses were smaller (70-140 m/s). In August 2011, the size of the vortex as defined by the peripheral collar was 65deg longitude (50,000 km in diameter) and 25deg latitude. Stratospheric acetylene (C2H2) was uniformly enhanced by a factor of three within the vortex, whereas ethane (C2H6) remained unaffected. The passage of B0 generated a new band of warm stratospheric emission at 0.5 mbar at its northern edge, and there are hints of warm stratospheric structures associated with the beacons at higher altitudes (p < 0.1 mbar) than can be reliably observed by CIRS nadir spectroscopy. Analysis of the zonal windshear suggests that Rossby wave perturbations from the convective storm could have propagated vertically into the stratosphere at this point in Saturn's seasonal cycle, one possible source of energy for the formation of these stratospheric anticyclones.

evolution↗