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DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Sparse Gaussian Process for Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Large-Scale Power System with Dynamic PVs and Loads

This work proposes a physics-informed sparse Gaussian process (SGP) for probabilistic stability assessment of large-scale power systems in the presence of uncertain dynamic PVs and loads. The differential and algebraic equations considering uncertainties from dynamic PVs and loads are reformulated to a nonlinear mapping relationship that allows the application of SGP. Thanks to the nonparametric characteristic of Gaussian process, the proposed framework does not require distributions of uncertain inputs and this distinguishes it from existing approaches. As the original Gaussian process is not scalable to large-scale systems with high dimensional uncertain inputs, this paper develops the SGP with a stochastic variational inference technique. It leads to approximately two orders of complex reduction. A data pre-processing step is also introduced to tackle the coexistence of stable and unstable cases by sample clustering and constructing separate SGPs. The probabilistic transient stability index is analyzed to assess system stability under different uncertain dynamics loads and PVs. Comparisons are performed with the sampling-based, the polynomial chaos expansion-based, and traditional Gaussian process-based methods on the modified IEEE 118-bus and Texas 2000-bus systems under various scenarios, including different levels of uncertainties and the existence of nonlinear correlations among dynamic PVs. The impacts of data quality and quantity issues are also investigated. It is shown that the proposed SGP achieves significantly improved computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy with a limited number of data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrating HPC, AI, and Workflows for Scientific Data Analysis: Report from Dagstuhl Seminar 23352

The Dagstuhl Seminar 23352, titled “Integrating HPC, AI, and Workflows for Scientific Data Analysis,” held from August 27 to September 1, 2023, was a significant event focusing on the synergy between High-Performance Computing (HPC), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and scientific workflow technologies. The seminar recognized that modern Big Data analysis in science rests on three pillars: workflow technologies for reproducibility and steering, AI and Machine Learning (ML) for versatile analysis, and HPC for handling large data sets. These elements, while crucial, have traditionally been researched separately, leading to gaps in their integration. The seminar aimed to bridge these gaps, acknowledging the challenges and opportunities at the intersection of these technologies. The event highlighted the complex interplay between HPC, workflows, and ML, noting how ML has increasingly been integrated into scientific workflows, thereby enhancing resource demands and bringing new requirements to HPC architectures, like support for GPUs and iterative computations. The seminar also addressed the challenges in adapting HPC for large-scale ML tasks, including in areas like deep learning, and the need for workflow systems to evolve to leverage ML in data analysis fully. Moreover, the seminar explored how ML could optimize scientific workflow systems and HPC operations, such as through improved scheduling and fault tolerance. A key focus was on identifying prestigious use cases of ML in HPC and understanding their unique, unmet requirements. The stochastic nature of ML and its impact on the reproducibility of data analysis on HPC systems was also a topic of discussion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic finite volume method for uncertainty quantification of transient flow in gas pipeline networks

We develop a weakly intrusive framework to simulate the propagation of uncertainty in solutions of generic hyperbolic partial differential equation systems on graph-connected domains with nodal coupling and boundary conditions. The method is based on the Stochastic Finite Volume (SFV) approach and can be applied for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the dynamical state of fluid flow over actuated transport networks. The numerical scheme has specific advantages for modeling intertemporal uncertainty in time-varying boundary parameters, which cannot be characterized by strict upper and lower (interval) bounds. We describe the scheme for a single pipe, and then formulate the controlled junction Riemann problem (JRP) that enables the extension to general network structures. In conclusion, we demonstrate the method's capabilities and performance characteristics using a standard benchmark test network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distribution System Segmented Model Simplification with Independent Dynamically Changing End-Use Loads

With more emerging technologies in power distribution systems, to support quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulation over short time frames, accurately modeling the dynamic behavior of end-use load under various conditions is im- portant. However, time and cost can be a burden for the QSTS simulation of thousands of houses representing dynamic load behaviors on large distribution feeders. There are two main contributions of this paper in order to reduce the QSTS simulation complexity. First, the paper presents a method to stochasti- cally model the dynamic behavior of end-use load for QSTS simulations. Second, using the stochastically modeled load behavior as an input to a distribution sys- tem, and building on our previous QSTS simulation simplification/acceleration method that relies on uniform load behavior, this paper presents a segment substitution approach for the simplification of distribution system models with independent dynamically changing end-use loads. Our numerical results show that compared to GridLAB-D, a software tool that simulates end-use load be- havior through physical models, the proposed stochastic modeling approach achieved an 89.3% simulation time reduction for end-use loads, while accurately capturing the temporally changing total load behavior. Moreover, the QSTS simulation of a large test distribution system through OpenDSS showed that the proposed simplification method decreased the feeder simulation time by a factor of three at less than 0.3% voltage error. Compared to our previous method with independent dynamic loads, the voltage error is reduced by a factor of four.

Power distribution system modeling, stochastic pro↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic and deterministic processes shape bioenergy crop microbiomes along a vertical soil niche

Abstract Sustainable biofuel cropping systems aim to address climate change while meeting energy needs. Understanding how soil and plant‐associated microbes respond to these different cropping systems is key to promoting agriculture sustainability and evaluating changes in ecosystem functions. Here, we leverage a long‐term biofuel cropping system field experiment to dissect soil and root microbiome changes across a soil‐depth gradient in poplar, restored prairie and switchgrass to understand their effects on the microbial communities. High throughput amplicon sequencing of the fungal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and prokaryotic 16S DNA regions showed a common trend of root and soil microbial community richness decreasing and evenness increasing with depth. Ecological niche (root vs. soil) had the strongest effect on community structure, followed by depth, then crop. Stochastic processes dominated the structuring of fungal communities in deeper soil layers while operational taxonomic units (OTUs) in surface soil layers were more likely to co‐occur and to be enriched by plant hosts. Prokaryotic communities were dispersal limited at deeper depths. Microbial networks showed a higher density, connectedness, average degree and module size in deeper soils. We observed a decrease in fungal‐fungal links and an increase of bacteria–bacteria links with increasing depth in all crops, particularly in the root microbiome.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Comprehensive Scheduling Framework using SP-ADMM for Residential Demand Response with Weather and Consumer Uncertainties

This paper presents a comprehensive scheduling framework for residential demand response (DR) programs considering both the day-ahead and real-time electricity markets. In the first stage, residential customers determine the operating status of their responsive devices such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and electric water heaters (EWHs), while the distribution system operator (DSO) computes the amount of electricity to be purchased in the day-ahead electricity market. In the second stage, the DSO purchases insufficient (or sells surplus) electricity in the real-time electricity market to maintain the supply-demand balance. Due to its computational complexity and data privacy issues, the proposed model cannot be directly solved in a centralized manner, especially with a large number of uncertain scenarios. Therefore, this paper proposes a combination of stochastic programming (SP) and the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm, called SP-ADMM, to decompose the original model and then solve each sub-problem in a distributed manner while considering multiple uncertain scenarios. The simulation study is performed on the IEEE 33-bus system including 121 residential houses. Here, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for large-scale residential DR applications under weather and consumer uncertainties.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

A stochastic solver based on the residence time algorithm for crystal plasticity models

Abstract The deformation of crystalline materials by dislocation motion takes place in discrete amounts determined by the Burgers vector. Dislocations may move individually or in bundles, potentially giving rise to intermittent slip. This confers plastic deformation with a certain degree of variability that can be interpreted as being caused by stochastic fluctuations in dislocation behavior. However, crystal plasticity (CP) models are almost always formulated in a continuum sense, assuming that fluctuations average out over large material volumes and/or cancel out due to multi-slip contributions. Nevertheless, plastic fluctuations are known to be important in confined volumes at or below the micron scale, at high temperatures, and under low strain rate/stress deformation conditions. Here, we develop a stochastic solver for CP models based on the residence-time algorithm that naturally captures plastic fluctuations by sampling among the set of active slip systems in the crystal. The method solves the evolution equations of explicit CP formulations, which are recast as stochastic ordinary differential equations and integrated discretely in time. The stochastic CP model is numerically stable by design and naturally breaks the symmetry of plastic slip by sampling among the active plastic shear rates with the correct probability. This can lead to phenomena such as intermittent slip or plastic localization without adding external symmetry-breaking operations to the model. The method is applied to body-centered cubic tungsten single crystals under a variety of temperatures, loading orientations, and imposed strain rates.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble cure kinetics network (ECK-Net): A method to derive cure kinetics of thermosetting resin

This paper introduces an Ensemble Cure Kinetics Network (ECK-Net), a neural network (NN)–based framework for modeling the cure kinetics of thermosetting resins within a phenomenological context. ECK-Net replaces traditional analytic models, which require extensive chemical insight and multiple isothermal/non-isothermal experiments, with a data-driven surrogate that maps nonlinear relationships between temperature, degree of cure, and reaction rate from differential scanning calorimetry data. The proposed approach predicts input-dependent kinetic coefficients of a generalized nth-order reaction equation rather than reaction rates directly, enabling a single unified model to represent various epoxy systems without relying on iso-conversional analysis or predefined functional forms. To ensure robustness, multiple independently trained networks under different random initializations are blended through an ensemble strategy, effectively mitigating the stochastic variability inherent to neural networks. The framework is validated using experimental datasets from multiple resin systems, including aerospace-grade materials (Toray 3900-2, Cycom 5320-1, and Hexcel 8552) and a windmill-grade resin (RIMR 035c). The model accurately reproduces the temporal evolution of the degree of cure under manufacturers’ recommended cure cycles across all tested resins systems, yielding Pearson’s correlation coefficients of 0.992, 0.994, 0.993, 0.997, respectively. To demonstrate process-level applicability, the trained network was implemented within the Abaqus environment to simulate out-of-autoclave (OOA) curing process of the CFRP panel composed of Toray T830H-6K/3900-2D prepreg. The simulation results showed excellent agreement with experimental temperature response (maximum peak temperature, simulation: 189.6 °C, experiment: 188.5 °C) and the final degree of cure (simulation: 0.948, experiment: 0.960 ± 0.013), confirming ECK-Net’s capability as a reliable alternative to conventional cure kinetics modeling methods.

Composite curing↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reinforcement Learning-based Output Structured Feedback for Distributed Multi-Area Power System Frequency Control

Load frequency control (LFC) is a key factor to maintain the stable frequency in multi-area power systems. As the modern power systems evolve from centralized to decentralized paradigm, LFC needs to consider the decentralized scheme that considers limited information from the information-exchange graph for the generator control of each interconnected area. This paper aims to solve a data-driven constrained LQR problem with mean-variance risk constraints and output structured feedback, and applies this framework to solve the LFC problem in multi-area power systems. By reformulating the constrained optimization problem into a minimax problem, the stochastic gradient descent max-oracle (SGDmax) algorithm with zero-order policy gradient (ZOPG) is adopted to find the optimal feedback gain from the learning, while guaranteeing the convergence. In addition, to improve the adaptation of the proposed learning method to new or varying models, we construct an emulator grid that approximates the dynamics of a physical grid and performs training based on this model. Once the feedback gain is obtained from the emulator grid, it is applied to the physical grid with a robustness test to check whether the controller from the approximated emulator applies to the actual system. Numerical tests show that the obtained feedback controller can successfully control the frequency of each area, while mitigating the uncertainty from the loads, with reliable robustness that ensures the adaptability of the obtained feedback gain to the actual physical grid.

Kwon, Kyung-bin↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the Verification of Deep Reinforcement Learning Solution for Intelligent Operation of Distribution Grids

Capabilities of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in obtaining fast decision policies in high dimensional and stochastic environments have led to its extensive use in operational research, including the operation of distribution grids with high penetration of distributed energy resources (DER). However, the feasibility and robustness of DRL solutions are not guaranteed for the system operator, and hence, those solutions may be of limited practical value. This paper proposes an analytical method to find feasibility ellipsoids that represent the range of multi-dimensional system states in which the DRL solution is guaranteed to be feasible. Empirical studies and stochastic sampling determine the ratio of the discovered to the actual feasible space as a function of the sample size. In addition, the performance of logarithmic, linear, and exponential penalization of infeasibility during the DRL training are studied and compared in order to reduce the number of infeasible solutions

Hosseini, Mohammad Mehdi↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian inference of structured latent spaces from neural population activity with the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model

The brain produces diverse functions, from perceiving sounds to producing arm reaches, through the collective activity of populations of many neurons. Determining if and how the features of these exogenous variables (e.g., sound frequency, reach angle) are reflected in population neural activity is important for understanding how the brain operates. Often, high-dimensional neural population activity is confined to low-dimensional latent spaces. However, many current methods fail to extract latent spaces that are clearly structured by exogenous variables. This has contributed to a debate about whether or not brains should be thought of as dynamical systems or representational systems. Here, we developed a new latent process Bayesian regression framework, the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model (OSLMM) which introduces an orthogonality constraint amongst time-varying mixture coefficients, and provide Markov chain Monte Carlo inference procedures. We demonstrate superior performance of OSLMM on latent trajectory recovery in synthetic experiments and show superior computational efficiency and prediction performance on several real-world benchmark data sets. We primarily focus on demonstrating the utility of OSLMM in two neural data sets: μ ECoG recordings from rat auditory cortex during presentation of pure tones and multi-single unit recordings form monkey motor cortex during complex arm reaching. We show that OSLMM achieves superior or comparable predictive accuracy of neural data and decoding of external variables (e.g., reach velocity). Most importantly, in both experimental contexts, we demonstrate that OSLMM latent trajectories directly reflect features of the sounds and reaches, demonstrating that neural dynamics are structured by neural representations. Together, these results demonstrate that OSLMM will be useful for the analysis of diverse, large-scale biological time-series datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A reinforcement learning approach to long-horizon operations, health, and maintenance supervisory control of advanced energy systems

In this work, we develop a Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach to the supervisory control problem for advanced energy systems, such as novel nuclear reactors and other demand-driven, mission-critical, and component-health-sensitive energy plants. The inclusive problem landscape considered captures the stochastic confluence of plant performance, component health evolution, power demand from the grid, diverse maintenance actions, and operator-defined goals and constraints, all considered over meaningfully long-enough reasoning horizons. Key aspects of the proposed approach are a receding horizon control-inspired technique dictating time- or event-triggered supervisory policy (re-)constructions, as well as additional capability-enabling contributions such as timescale compression, to handle long reasoning horizons and uncertainty in parts of the problem, and practical yet demonstrably-effective handling of hybrid action spaces with continuous and discrete decision variables. The resulting algorithm consists of a simulation-based RL agent constructing stochastic supervisory control policies over nontrivial action spaces and for long horizons, applying the learned policy to the system for a much shorter interval, and perpetually repeating, to construct the next long-horizon policy. That next policy will only be applied, again, for a short interval, yet originally far-in-time events move progressively closer, their associated uncertainty decreases, and new events and aspects enter the reasoning horizon. The proposed methodology bridges fundamental receding horizon concepts with the unequivocally stronger and more scalable reasoning of contemporary RL. Numerical examples using Soft Actor–Critic Deep RL illustrate the operation and efficacy of the proposed technique for a power plant tasked with health-aware load following missions in a dynamic electricity market landscape.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Extracting and Generating PV Soiling Profiles for Analysis, Forecasting, and Cleaning Optimization

The identification and prediction of the daily soiling profiles of a photovoltaic site is essential to plan the optimal cleaning schedule. In this article, we analyze and propose various methods to extract and generate photovoltaic soiling profiles, in order to improve the analysis and the forecast of the losses. New soiling rate extraction methods are proposed to reflect the seasonal variability of the soiling rates and, for this reason, are found to identify the most convenient cleaning day with the highest accuracy for the investigated sites. Also, we present an approach that could be used to predict future soiling losses through the implementation of stochastic weather generation algorithms whose ability to identify in advance the best cleaning schedule is also successfully tested. The methods presented in this article can optimize the operation and maintenance schedule and could make it possible, in the future, to predict soiling losses through analysis based only on environmental parameters, such as rainfall and particulate matter, without the need of long-term soiling data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bottom-Up Simulation, Reconstruction, and Quantification of Macromolecule Sequences from Experimental Polymerizations

Motivated by the canonical sequence–structure–function paradigm, tools to characterize chemical patterning in natural biomacromolecules, from proteins to nucleic acids, have grown exponentially in recent years. However, analogous strategies for synthetic macromolecules remain in nascent stages, complicated by sequence polydispersity and analytical limitations. To address this, we have developed a comprehensive and open-source Python package, PRISM (polymer rate insights and sequence modeling), an end-to-end workflow that provides a path from experimental kinetics measurements to quantitative and qualitative metrics for describing chemical patterning in stochastic polymers. First, a numerical integration strategy was constructed to simulate and fit experimental data from reversible addition–fragmentation chain transfer (RAFT) polymerization kinetics, enabling the facile estimation of relevant reactivity ratios. These ratios were then used in a mechanism-specific stochastic kinetic simulation strategy to simulate sequence ensembles corresponding to model systems spanning experimental copolymers, classes of statistical polymers (e.g., alternating, block, and gradient), and multiblock copolymers. Lastly, inspired by sequence homology metrics from bioinformatics, we introduce visualization strategies and quantitative metrics to facilitate comparisons of different sequence ensembles. As the sequence–structure–function paradigm becomes increasingly central in de novo design of synthetic macromolecules, this toolkit provides a first step toward accurate and representative sequence description and featurization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improved Cross Section Generation Capability of Griffin in FY22

The Griffin code is a Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) based reactor multiphysics analysis application jointly developed by Idaho National Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory. The code includes a variety of deterministic steady-state transport solvers for fixed source, k-eigenvalue, adjoint, and subcritical multiplication as well as transient solvers for spatial dynamics with the improved quasi-static method. Griffin uses cross section data in the ISOXML format generated from external deterministic or Monte Carlo cross section generation codes. In recent years, the MC 2 -3 modules have been added to Griffin for fast reactor cross section generation, and the self-shielding application programming interface (SSAPI) was implemented in the ISOXML module for thermal reactor cross section generation. The on-the-fly slowing down method and double-heterogeneity treatment have been implemented to SSAPI and verified against particulate fuel-bearing graphite-moderated thermal reactor problems with high accuracy. This year, work has been focused on improving the cross section generation capability of ISOXML and streamlining the cross section generation procedures. In addition, the form function data were added to ISOXML in order to support the pin power reconstruction capability that was newly implemented in Griffin in this fiscal year. To facilitate the cross section generation using MC 2 -3 and SSAPI in Griffin, the cross section generation workflows have been set up for both fast and thermal spectrum reactors. The MOOSE action system tool was devised for fast spectrum problems, and the MOOSE stochastic tool was adopted to the branch calculation procedure for thermal spectrum problems. Meanwhile, to ensure the accuracy of group-constants, the thermal up-scattering kernel calculator accounting for resonance scattering was implemented in ISOXML, demonstrating the accurate computation of a Doppler-broadened scattering kernel of any Legendre order within a reasonable timescale. Other aspects of ISOXML, such as deletion solver and data, documentation, ISOXML file management, and the interface for Mixture, were improved as well.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Global stochastic optimization of stellarator coil configurations

In the construction of a stellarator, the manufacturing and assembling of the coil system is a dominant cost. These coils need to satisfy strict engineering tolerances, and if those are not met the project could be cancelled as in the case of the National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) project. Therefore, our goal is to find coil configurations that increase construction tolerances without compromising the performance of the magnetic field. In this paper, we develop a gradient-based stochastic optimization model which seeks robust stellarator coil configurations in high dimensions. In particular, we design a two-step method: first, we perform an approximate global search by a sample efficient trust-region Bayesian optimization; second, we refine the minima found in step one with a stochastic local optimizer. To this end, we introduce two stochastic local optimizers: BFGS applied to the sample average approximation; and Adam, equipped with a control variate for variance reduction. Numerical simulations performed on a W7-X-like coil configuration demonstrate that our global optimization approach finds a variety of promising local solutions at less than 0.1% of the cost of previous work, which considered solely local stochastic optimization.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic Vector Techniques in Ground-State Electronic Structure

Herein we review a suite of stochastic vector computational approaches for studying the electronic structure of extended condensed matter systems. These techniques help reduce algorithmic complexity, facilitate efficient parallelization, simplify computational tasks, accelerate calculations, and diminish memory requirements. While their scope is vast, we limit our study to ground-state and finite temperature density functional theory (DFT) and second-order many-body perturbation theory. More advanced topics, such as quasiparticle (charge) and optical (neutral) excitations and higher-order processes, are covered elsewhere. We start by explaining how to use stochastic vectors in computations, characterizing the associated statistical errors. Next, we show how to estimate the electron density in DFT and discuss effective techniques to reduce statistical errors. Finally, we review the use of stochastic vectors for calculating correlation energies within the second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory and its finite temperature variational form. Example calculation results are presented and used to demonstrate the efficacy of the methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Methodology to Evaluate the Grid Reliability Impact of Oscillations Induced by Large Loads

The rapid growth of hyperscale AI data centers is bringing renewed attention to the reliability risk that sustained forced oscillations pose to bulk power systems, with cyclic computational workloads emerging as a new forcing source. Unlike the broadband, stochastic disturbances from traditional industrial loads such as arc furnaces, AI training and inference facilities can inject large active power swings concentrated at specific frequencies over extended durations - characteristics that existing grid planning practices do not account for. While the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has recognized this gap and called for system-level studies of large load interconnections, no standardized methodology exists to screen, simulate, and quantify these risks at the planning stage. This report presents the Risk Assessment Tool for Large Load-induced Events (RATLLE), a Python-based, publicly available script suite developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate bulk power system reliability risks from data center-induced oscillations. RATLLE implements a three-module workflow: a screening module that identifies vulnerable interconnection locations and excitable system modes; a simulation module that models cyclic data center load behavior using a commercial positive sequence simulation platform; and an analysis module that computes risk metrics and generates interactive visualization dashboards. The risk metrics, formulated around simulation observables, map oscillation impacts to a three-stage severity scale spanning latent equipment fatigue through imminent cascading failure. The methodology is demonstrated on two Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system models: a publicly available 240-bus reduced representation and a detailed 2031 Heavy Winter planning case. Case studies illustrate that even modest 50 MW forced oscillations at resonant frequencies can produce wide-area power swings, N-1 security constraint violations, and cascading generator trips through protection actions - outcomes that would not occur under normal operating conditions without oscillations present. The results underscore the need for standardized oscillation impact assessment in large load interconnection studies and provide a reproducible, extensible framework for utilities to adopt or customize within their existing planning workflows.

Biswas, Shuchismita↗