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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Studies for Advanced Reactor Using RAVEN

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is used extensively to evaluate the risks associated with complex engineering systems like Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Current PSA models are based on the Event-Tree/Fault-Tree (ET/FT) methodology. ET and FT models are static and are based on Boolean logic approaches. In the past, concerns have been raised in the literature regarding the capability of the traditional static modelling approaches to adequately account for the impact of process, hardware, software, firmware and human interactions on the stochastic system behaviour. To overcome the limitations of the traditional approach to PSA, several dynamic PSA methodologies have been proposed. One of the dynamic PSA methodologies used for dynamic evaluations is Dynamic Event Tree (DET) framework which can be used to assess the impact of the parameter variability and scenario dynamics on the PSA model for the initiating event. The DET framework couples the stochastic model (number of component/trains that start on demand, operator action timing, etc.) with a Thermal-Hydraulic (TH) model of the plant. This paper explores the use of DET along with a case study on advanced reactor. The initiating event selected for the study was Class IV power supply failure event. The TH analysis considering uncertainty in various parameters was performed using RELAP5 and Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment (RAVEN) tool. Based on the uncertainty analysis, it is concluded that the peak clad temperatures (PCT) are within the limits in all the code runs implying a high-degree of safety margin. However, variation in time to reach the PCT was observed among the code runs and the mean time to reach the PCT was found to be around 8590sec (approximately 2.4 hours). Hence, sufficient time margin is available for human intervention and the operator might have a relatively stress-free state during such an accident scenario. Due to the static nature of the traditional PSA models, the safety margin available was lesser, whereas, with the help of dynamic PSA models, one can demonstrate that the actual available safety margin is more in the present case study and is valuable input from the design point of view.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic Adaptive Droop Control in Frequency Regulation of Power Systems With Intermittent Generators

Modern power systems (MPSs), including microgrids (MGs), are increasingly incorporating multiple renewable energy sources (RESs) such as wind and solar power, as well as battery storage and controllable loads. While environmentally beneficial, these sources pose challenges for control and management due to their intermittent and stochastic nature, especially in maintaining frequency stability with multiple interconnected generators of varying capacities. Traditional droop control methods are effective in systems with generators that are dispatchable and have fixed generation capacities, but they fall short when applied to systems with RESs, where generation capacities are dynamic and affected by unpredictable environmental conditions. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel stochastic adaptive droop control (SADC) method for load frequency control (LFC). The proposed method adapts droop coefficients in real time, based on the measured stochastic data of power generation capacities, enabling more effective frequency regulation in systems with variable and intermittent power generation. Unlike traditional adaptive control methods, which assume constant or slowly-varying system parameters, this approach accounts for stochastic processes by modeling them as Markov chains, enabling robust performance under highly dynamic and unpredictable conditions. The key contributions of this work include the development of real-time droop coefficient adaptation algorithms, derivation of their stability and convergence properties, and the demonstration of the advantages of the method through simulations. Case studies highlight the improved performance of frequency regulation, particularly in addressing the impact of stochastic weather conditions and the benefits of reducing dependence on battery reserves in dealing with intermittency of RESs. Finally, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical foundations of the method, as well as practical implementation insights for future power systems with high penetration of RESs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Framework to Project the Permafrost Fate With Explicit Quantification of Soil Property and Future Climate Uncertainties

This study develops a novel general framework to project the permafrost fate with rigorous uncertainty quantification to assess dominant sources. Borehole temperature records from three sites in the Russian western Arctic are used to constrain the uncertainty of a high‐fidelity freeze‐thaw model. Projections from 9 Global Climate Models (GCM) are stochastically downscaled to generate future trajectories of surface ground heat flux. Under the two emission scenarios SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, the projected average thawing depths by 2100 vary from 0.4 to 14.4 m or 2.1 to 17.7 m, and the increase in the top 10 m average temperature from 2015 to 2100 is 1.2–2.7°C or 1.9–3.0°C. The results show that the freeze‐thaw model uncertainty can sometimes dominate over that of GCM outputs, calling for site‐specific information to improve model accuracy. The framework is applicable for understanding permafrost degradation and related uncertainties at larger scales.

Bayesian downscaling↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distributionally robust facility location problem under decision-dependent stochastic demand

While the traditional facility location problem considers exogenous demand, in some applications, locations of facilities could affect the willingness of customers to use certain types of services, e.g., carsharing, and therefore they also affect realizations of random demand. Moreover, a decision maker may not know the exact distribution of such endogenous demand and how it is affected by location choices. In this paper, we consider a distributionally robust facility location problem, in which we interpret the moments of stochastic demand as functions of facility-location decisions. We reformulate a two-stage decision-dependent distributionally robust optimization model as a monolithic formulation, and then derive exact mixed-integer linear programming reformulation as well as valid inequalities when the means and variances of demand are piecewise linear functions of location solutions. We conduct extensive computational studies, in which we compare our model with a decision-dependent deterministic model, as well as stochastic programming and distributionally robust models without the decision-dependent assumption. Here, the results show superior performance of our approach with remarkable improvement in profit and quality of service under various settings, in addition to computational speed-ups given by formulation enhancements. These results draw attention to the need of considering the impact of location decisions on customer demand within this strategic-level planning problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

A generative modeling approach to reconstructing 21 cm tomographic data

Abstract Analyses of the cosmic 21 cm signal are hampered by astrophysical foregrounds that are far stronger than the signal itself. These foregrounds, typically confined to a wedge-shaped region in Fourier space, often necessitate the removal of a vast majority of modes, thereby degrading the quality of the data anisotropically. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel deep generative model based on stochastic interpolants to reconstruct the 21 cm data lost to wedge filtering. Our method leverages the non-Gaussian nature of the 21 cm signal to effectively map wedge-filtered 3D lightcones to samples from the conditional distribution of wedge-recovered lightcones. We demonstrate how our method is able to restore spatial information effectively, considering both varying cosmological initial conditions and astrophysics. Furthermore, we discuss a number of future avenues where this approach could be applied in analyses of the 21 cm signal, potentially offering new opportunities to improve our understanding of the Universe during the epochs of cosmic dawn and reionization. Code, pre-trained models, and scripts for making plots in this paper can be found here .

Sabti, Nashwan (ORCID:000000027924546X)↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Machine Learning Assisted Development of a Model for the Populations of Convective and Stratiform Clouds

Abstract Traditional parameterizations of the interaction between convection and the environment have relied on an assumption that the slowly varying large‐scale environment is in statistical equilibrium with a large number of small and short‐lived convective clouds. They fail to capture nonequilibrium transitions such as the diurnal cycle and the formation of mesoscale convective systems as well as observed precipitation statistics and extremes. Informed by analysis of radar observations, cloud‐permitting model simulation, theory, and machine learning, this work presents a new stochastic cloud population dynamics model for characterizing the interactions between convective and stratiform clouds, with the goal of informing the representation of these interactions in global climate models. Fifteen wet seasons of precipitating cloud observations by a C‐band radar at Darwin, Australia are fed into a machine learning algorithm to obtain transition functions that close a set of coupled equations relating large‐scale forcing, mass flux, the convective cell size distribution, and the stratiform area. Under realistic large‐scale forcing, the derived transition functions show that, on the one hand, interactions with stratiform clouds act to dampen the variability in the size and number of convective cells and therefore in the convective mass flux. On the other, for a given convective area fraction, a larger number of smaller cells is more favorable for the growth of stratiform area than a smaller number of larger cells. The combination of these two factors gives rise to solutions with a few convective cells embedded in a large stratiform area, reminiscent of mesoscale convective systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Uncertainty in Stochastic Economic Dispatch considering Wind Power Penetration

The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources in power systems, represented as random processes, converts the traditional deterministic economic dispatch problem into a stochastic one. To estimate the uncertainty in this stochastic economic dispatch problem for forecasting purposes, the conventional Monte-Carlo method is prohibitively time-consuming for practical applications. To overcome this problem, here we propose a novel Gaussian-process-emulator-based approach to quantify the uncertainty in the stochastic economic dispatch considering wind power penetration. Facing high-dimensional real-world data representing the correlated uncertainties from wind generation, a manifold-learning-based Isomap algorithm is proposed to efficiently represent the low-dimensional hidden probabilistic structure of the data. In this low-dimensional latent space, with Latin hypercube sampling as the computer experimental design, a Gaussian-process emulator is used, for the first time, to serve as a nonparametric, surrogate model for the original complicated stochastic economic dispatch model. This reduced-order representative allows us to evaluate the economic dispatch solver at sampled values with a negligible computational cost while maintaining a desirable accuracy. Simulation results conducted on the IEEE 118-bus test system reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Calculation of Dynamical Response Functions Using a Bound-State Method

Abstract We investigate a method to extract response functions (dynamical polarisabilities) directly from a bound-state approach applied to calculations of perturbation-induced reactions. The use of a square-integrable basis leads to a response in the form of a sum of $$\delta $$ δ functions. We integrate this over energy and fit a smooth function to the resulting stepwise-continuous one. Its derivative gives the final approximation to the physical response function. We show that the method reproduces analytical results where known, and analyse the details for a variety of models. We apply it to some simple models, using the stochastic variational method as the numerical method. Albeit we find that this approach, and other numerical techniques, have some difficulties with the threshold behavior in coupled-channel problems with multiple thresholds, its stochastic nature allows us to extract robust results even for such cases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characteristics of locational uncertainty marginal price for correlated uncertainties of variable renewable generation and demands

With the rapid increase of variable renewable energy sources in power systems, how to manage and price the uncertainty of renewable resources’ power outputs is becoming an urgent issue. Current market designs considering the uncertainties are mainly based on the probabilistic scenario set of demand and renewable energy resources power outputs. This consideration makes market designs vulnerable to three significant challenges when put into practice. First, the accurate probability distribution of renewable generation is hard to obtain in real-time. Second, it is challenging to clear the market timely with many scenarios to guarantee accuracy. Third, generation cost recovery cannot be guaranteed for some scenarios. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a locational uncertainty marginal price model to price the uncertainty explicitly based on a scenario-free stochastic market-clearing model. Instead of using the probabilistic scenario set, the uncertainty of renewable energy sources and loads is modeled with distributionally-robust chance constraints. The correlation of uncertainties can be endogenously modeled in both the market-clearing and the locational uncertainty marginal price formation. Furthermore, this paper proves that generation cost recovery, revenue adequacy, and partial market equilibrium can be achieved using the locational uncertainty marginal price model. Numerical results from both the small and large systems simulations validate that the generation cost recovery is maintained no matter the generation participates in uncertainty mitigation or not. The transmission congestion surplus is also allocated appropriately among loads, renewable energy sources, and financial transmission right owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Growing grasses in unprofitable areas of US Midwest croplands could increase species richness

The US has large potential to grow perennial energy crops, but because these crops are rarely grown in current agricultural landscapes, it is unclear how biodiversity may be affected. Over time, as agriculture has increased, many grassland species have declined. In addition, not all agricultural land is profitable for growing annual crops. Unprofitable areas were responsible for a loss of approximately $110 million USD per year from 2013 to 2016. Based on this, we want to know how converting less-profitable portions of agricultural fields to switchgrass, a native prairie grass, would influence species occurrence. To address this question, we developed an alternative landscape in which clustered corn/soy acres with a low return on investment (ROI) were replaced with grassland. We also developed and validated species distribution models to predict changes in species occurrence for 28 avian species in Iowa in response to landscape management. Furthermore, we compared results for three different models: Random forest (RF), Stochastic gradient boosting (GBM), and Neural network (Nnet) and found that all models performed well and predicted similar species distribution. Predicted species richness increased by 3.66% (RF), 2.79% (GBM), and 7.51% (Nnet) when we simulated a change in management for ~3% of Iowa's low ROI corn/soybean areas to grassland. If harvested, these areas could generate approximately 7.6 million dry tons/year of switchgrass for bioenergy, thereby increasing farmers earnings. Unprofitable areas tended to occur along streams, which suggest that incorporating partially harvested riparian buffers can benefit avian biodiversity, while improving water quality and reducing unnecessary costs for farmers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tutorial: Langevin Dynamics methods for aerosol particle trajectory simulations and collision rate constant modeling

The Langevin Dynamics (LD) method (also known in the literature as Brownian Dynamics) is routinely used to simulate aerosol particle trajectories for transport rate constant calculations as well as to understand aerosol particle transport in internal and external fluid flows. This tutorial intends to explain the methodological details of setting up a LD simulation of a population of aerosol particles and to deduce rate constants from an ensemble of classical trajectories. We discuss the applicability and limitations of the translational Langevin equation to model the combined stochastic and deterministic motion of particles in fields of force or fluid flow. The drag force and stochastic “diffusion” force terms that appear in the Langevin equation are discussed elaborately, along with a summary of common forces relevant to aerosol systems (electrostatic, gravity, van der Waals, …); a commonly used first order and a fourth order Runge-Kutta time stepping schemes for linear stochastic ordinary differential equations are presented. A MATLAB® implementation of a LD code for simulating particle settling under gravity using the first order scheme is included for illustration. Scaling analysis of aerosol transport processes and the selection of timestep and domain size for trajectory simulations are demonstrated through two specific aerosol processes: particle diffusion charging and coagulation. Fortran® implementations of the first order and fourth order time-stepping schemes are included for simulating the 3D motion of a particle in a periodic domain. Lastly, potential applications and caveats to the usage of LD are included as a summary.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison between mirror Langmuir probe and gas-puff imaging measurements of intermittent fluctuations in the Alcator C-Mod scrape-off layer

Statistical properties of the scrape-off layer plasma fluctuations are studied in ohmically heated plasmas in the Alcator C-Mod tokamak. For the first time, plasma fluctuations as well as parameters that describe the fluctuations are compared across measurements from a mirror Langmuir probe (MLP) and from gas-puff imaging (GPI) that sample the same plasma discharge. This comparison is complemented by an analysis of line emission time-series data, synthesized from the MLP electron density and temperature measurements. The fluctuations observed by the MLP and GPI typically display relative fluctuation amplitudes of order unity together with positively skewed and flattened probability density functions. Such data time series are well described by an established stochastic framework that models the data as a superposition of uncorrelated, two-sided exponential pulses. The most important parameter of the process is the intermittency parameter, $γ=τ_d/τ_w$, where τd denotes the duration time of a single pulse and $τ_w$ gives the average waiting time between consecutive pulses. In this study we show, using a new deconvolution method, that these parameters can be consistently estimated from different statistics of the data. We also show that the statistical properties of the data sampled by the MLP and GPI diagnostic are very similar. Finally, a synthetic GPI signal using only plasma parameters sampled by the MLP shows qualitatively different fluctuation statistics from the measured GPI signal.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Composition of Catalytic Coprocessing Products from Molecular Beam Mass Spectra

Demand for the development of an automated and integrated refining process for biofuels has increased in recent years due to the lack of generalized process inspection tools. In bio-oil upgrading processes, all process variables are maintained based on the offline specification of intermediates and products. A lack of real-time product specifications in batch-wise monitoring can cause process failure and wasted resources. Therefore, there is a need for a fast and accurate intermediates/product specification tool that can be used for real-time specification to reduce waste and mitigate the risk of process failure. Here, to address this gap, we developed a machine learning (ML) model for predicting speciated bio-oil composition, including paraffin, iso-paraffins, olefins, naphthene, and aromatics. The model is trained using the mass spectra from upgraded products collected in the vapor phase before condensation and predicts the composition of the condensed product. Training ML models using raw mass spectra is challenging due to numerous overlapped peaks originating from different parent compounds. With this in mind, we propose a protocol that (i) transforms raw mass spectra to chemistry-inspired predefined features and (ii) trains decision tree-based models using these features. Our results show that the random forest model was robust against overfitting and had the highest accuracy compared to other models. Moreover, a stochastic ablation method determined the eight most significant features while maximizing the accuracy. Our protocol facilitates real-time compositional analysis of upgraded bio-oils and thus real-time process monitoring. Additionally, this protocol enables the rational design of efficient catalysts and the determination of optimal process conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Benchmarking quantum logic operations relative to thresholds for fault tolerance

Contemporary methods for benchmarking noisy quantum processors typically measure average error rates or process infidelities. However, thresholds for fault-tolerant quantum error correction are given in terms of worst-case error rates—defined via the diamond norm—which can differ from average error rates by orders of magnitude. One method for resolving this discrepancy is to randomize the physical implementation of quantum gates, using techniques like randomized compiling (RC). In this work, we use gate set tomography to perform precision characterization of a set of two-qubit logic gates to study RC on a superconducting quantum processor. We find that, under RC, gate errors are accurately described by a stochastic Pauli noise model without coherent errors, and that spatially correlated coherent errors and non-Markovian errors are strongly suppressed. We further show that the average and worst-case error rates are equal for randomly compiled gates, and measure a maximum worst-case error of 0.0197(3) for our gate set. Our results show that randomized benchmarks are a viable route to both verifying that a quantum processor’s error rates are below a fault-tolerance threshold, and to bounding the failure rates of near-term algorithms, if—and only if—gates are implemented via randomization methods which tailor noise.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Microgrid Scheduling With Chance‐Constrained Resilience Consideration

Traditionally, it is assumed that microgrids transition seamlessly from grid‐connected operation to islanded mode in the event of sudden main grid outages. In reality, the islanding process, especially unintentional islanding, is rarely seamless. Instead, it is subject to voltage and frequency fluctuations caused by the instantaneous disconnection of the point of common coupling (PCC) switch, variations in loads and renewable generation output and even the protection tripping of distributed energy resources (DERs). To mitigate these fluctuations and facilitate a smooth islanding process, we propose a stochastic microgrid scheduling model that incorporates chance‐constrained resilience measures. Specifically, the resilience measure is defined as the probability of successful islanding (PSI), that is, the probability that a microgrid can mitigate the generation‐demand imbalance caused by the disconnection of the PCC switch, variations in load and renewable generation and DER tripping. This measure is modelled using chance constraints. Unlike existing reliability and resilience indices, which typically neglect the possibility of microgrid/DER failure under extreme events and assume their survival while primarily focussing on reducing impact duration or magnitude, the proposed PSI‐based framework explicitly addresses microgrid and DER survival during the islanding transition. The formulated nonlinear chance constraints are approximated using a multiinterval approach and equivalently represented as a mixed‐integer linear programming (MILP) formulation. Case study results validate the proposed method, showing that the PSI estimation error is reduced to less than 8%, compared to approximately 28% with existing methods. Various sensitivity analyses on the DER tripping rate and PSI settings were performed to validate the robustness of the proposed method. In particular, the necessity of accounting for DER tripping in the PSI calculation was demonstrated.

chance constrained optimization↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantum to classical parton evolution in the QGP

We study the time evolution of the density matrix of a high energy quark in the presence of a dense QCD background that is modeled as a stochastic Gaussian color field. At late times, we find that only the color singlet component of the quark’s reduced density matrix survives the in-medium evolution and that the density matrix becomes asymptotically diagonal in both transverse position and momentum spaces. In addition, we observe an accelerated entropy growth due to the larger phase space being explored by the quark and that the quantum and classical quark entropies converge at late times. We further observe that the quark state loses all memory of the initial condition. Combined with the fact that the reduced density matrix satisfies Boltzmann-diffusion transport, we conclude that the quark reduced density matrix can be interpreted as a classical phase space distribution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic machine learning via sigma profiles to build a digital chemical space

This work establishes a different paradigm on digital molecular spaces and their efficient navigation by exploiting sigma profiles. To do so, the remarkable capability of Gaussian processes (GPs), a type of stochastic machine learning model, to correlate and predict physicochemical properties from sigma profiles is demonstrated, outperforming state-of-the-art neural networks previously published. The amount of chemical information encoded in sigma profiles eases the learning burden of machine learning models, permitting the training of GPs on small datasets which, due to their negligible computational cost and ease of implementation, are ideal models to be combined with optimization tools such as gradient search or Bayesian optimization (BO). Gradient search is used to efficiently navigate the sigma profile digital space, quickly converging to local extrema of target physicochemical properties. While this requires the availability of pretrained GP models on existing datasets, such limitations are eliminated with the implementation of BO, which can find global extrema with a limited number of iterations. A remarkable example of this is that of BO toward boiling temperature optimization. Holding no knowledge of chemistry except for the sigma profile and boiling temperature of carbon monoxide (the worst possible initial guess), BO finds the global maximum of the available boiling temperature dataset (over 1,000 molecules encompassing more than 40 families of organic and inorganic compounds) in just 15 iterations (i.e., 15 property measurements), cementing sigma profiles as a powerful digital chemical space for molecular optimization and discovery, particularly when little to no experimental data is initially available.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reliable photometric membership (RPM) of galaxies in clusters – I. A machine learning method and its performance in the local universe

ABSTRACT We introduce a new method to determine galaxy cluster membership based solely on photometric properties. We adopt a machine learning approach to recover a cluster membership probability from galaxy photometric parameters and finally derive a membership classification. After testing several machine learning techniques (such as stochastic gradient boosting, model averaged neural network and k-nearest neighbours), we found the support vector machine algorithm to perform better when applied to our data. Our training and validation data are from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey main sample. Hence, to be complete to $M_r^* + 3$, we limit our work to 30 clusters with $z$phot-cl ≤ 0.045. Masses (M200) are larger than $\sim 0.6\times 10^{14} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$ (most above $3\times 10^{14} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$). Our results are derived taking in account all galaxies in the line of sight of each cluster, with no photometric redshift cuts or background corrections. Our method is non-parametric, making no assumptions on the number density or luminosity profiles of galaxies in clusters. Our approach delivers extremely accurate results (completeness, C $\sim 92{\rm{ per\ cent}}$ and purity, P $\sim 87{\rm{ per\ cent}}$) within R200, so that we named our code reliable photometric membership. We discuss possible dependencies on magnitude, colour, and cluster mass. Finally, we present some applications of our method, stressing its impact to galaxy evolution and cosmological studies based on future large-scale surveys, such as eROSITA, EUCLID, and LSST.

Lopes, Paulo A. A.↗