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At least 397 records · Page 22

Stochastic nature of Landsat MSS data

A multiple series generalization of the ARIMA models is used to model Landsat MSS scan lines as sequences of vectors, each vector having four elements (bands). The purpose of this work is to investigate if Landsat scan lines can be described by a general multiple series linear stochastic model and if the coefficients of such a model vary as a function of satellite system and target attributes. To accomplish this objective, an exploratory experimental design was set up incorporating six factors, four representing target attributes - location, cloud cover, row (within location), and column (within location) - and two factors representing system attributes - satellite number and detector bank. Each factor was included in the design at two levels and, with two replicates per treatment, 128 scan lines were analyzed. The results of the analysis suggests that a multiple AR(4) model is an adequate representation across all scan lines. Furthermore, the coefficients of the AR(4) model vary with location, particularly changes in physiography (slope regimes), and with percent cloud cover, but are insensitive to changes in system attributes.

Labovitz, M. L.↗

Numerical studies of dilute and dense spray characteristics

Several issues involving the improvement of physical submodels and the computational efficiency in modeling dilute and dense spray combustion are discussed. First, the implementations of a dispersion width approach accounting for turbulent dispersion within each computational parcel is discussed. This is essentially a statistical transport model and the testings of this model confirm the capability of accurately representing dispersion in nearly-homogeneous and inhomogeneous turbulent flows with improved efficiency over the delta function stochastic separated flow model. To account for the dense spray effects, an existing drop collision and coalescence model and a Taylor analogy breakup (TAB) model were employed. These models were incorporated into a state-of-the-art multiphase all-speed transient flow solution procedure. Several examples including nonevaporating, evaporating, and burning dense spray cases were studied. The numerical results show reasonably good comparisons with available experimental data in terms of spray penetration, drop sizes, and overall configuration of a spray flame.

Kim, Y. M.↗

Frequency domain approach for evaluation of stochastic control of elastic spacecraft

An attempt is made to develop a reduced-order filter for an elastic spacecraft. The frequency-domain approach is resorted to both for arriving at an appropriate ROF and for evaluating the resulting stochastic flight controller. The frequency-domain approach employed is contrasted to the time-domain approach previously utilized by the authors. A linearized deterministic dynamical model of a solar electric propulsion spacecraft is analyzed. Flexibility modes were incorporated profitably into the ROF model, and the stochastic controllers exhibit notching of structural resonances reminiscent of classical notch filters. Accurate estimates of modal parameters (damping, natural frequency) are deemed crucial, and use of worst-case values in the ROF design is recommended.

Larson, V.↗

A Eulerian-Lagrangian Model to Simulate Two-Phase/Particulate Flows

Figure 1 shows a snapshot of liquid fuel spray coming out of an injector nozzle in a realistic gas-turbine combustor. Here the spray atomization was simulated using a stochastic secondary breakup model (Apte et al. 2003a) with point-particle approximation for the droplets. Very close to the injector, it is observed that the spray density is large and the droplets cannot be treated as point-particles. The volume displaced by the liquid in this region is significant and can alter the gas-phase ow and spray evolution. In order to address this issue, one can compute the dense spray regime by an Eulerian-Lagrangian technique using advanced interface tracking/level-set methods (Sussman et al. 1994; Tryggvason et al. 2001; Herrmann 2003). This, however, is computationally intensive and may not be viable in realistic complex configurations. We therefore plan to develop a methodology based on Eulerian-Lagrangian technique which will allow us to capture the essential features of primary atomization using models to capture interactions between the fluid and droplets and which can be directly applied to the standard atomization models used in practice. The numerical scheme for unstructured grids developed by Mahesh et al. (2003) for incompressible flows is modified to take into account the droplet volume fraction. The numerical framework is directly applicable to realistic combustor geometries. Our main objectives in this work are: Develop a numerical formulation based on Eulerian-Lagrangian techniques with models for interaction terms between the fluid and particles to capture the Kelvin- Helmholtz type instabilities observed during primary atomization. Validate this technique for various two-phase and particulate flows. Assess its applicability to capture primary atomization of liquid jets in conjunction with secondary atomization models.

Apte, S. V.↗

The structure of evaporating and combusting sprays: Measurements and predictions

The structure of particle-laden jets and nonevaporating and evaporating sprays was measured in order to evaluate models of these processes. Three models are being evaluated: (1) a locally homogeneous flow model, where slip between the phases is neglected and the flow is assumed to be in local thermodynamic equilibrium; (2) a deterministic separated flow model, where slip and finite interphase transport rates are considered but effects of particle/drop dispersion by turbulence and effects of turbulence on interphase transport rates are ignored; and (3) a stochastic separated flow model, where effects of interphase slip, turbulent dispersion and turbulent fluctuations are considered using random sampling for turbulence properties in conjunction with random-walk computations for particle motion. All three models use a k-e-g turbulence model. All testing and data reduction are completed for the particle laden jets. Mean and fluctuating velocities of the continuous phase and mean mixture fraction were measured in the evaporating sprays.

Shuen, J. S.↗

Biophysics Representation of the Two-Hit Model of Alzheimer's Disease for the Exploration of Late CNS Risks from Space Radiation

A concern for long-term space travel outside the Earth s magnetic field is the late effects to the central nervous system (CNS) from galactic cosmic ray (GCR) or solar particle events (SPE). Human epidemiology data is severely limited for making CNS risk estimates and it is not clear such effects occur following low LET exposures. We are developing systems biology models based on biological information on specific diseases, and experimental data for proton and heavy ion radiation. A two-hit model of Alzheimer s disease (AD) has been proposed by Zhu et al.(1), which is the framework of our model. Of importance is that over 50% of the US population over the age of 75-y have mild to severe forms of AD. Therefore we recommend that risk assessment for a potential AD risk from space radiation should focus on the projection of an earlier age of onset of AD and the prevention of this possible acceleration through countermeasures. In the two-hit model, oxidative stress and aberrant cell cycle-related abnormalities leading to amyloid-beta plaques and neurofibrillary tangles are necessary and invariant steps in AD. We have formulated a stochastic cell kinetics model of the two-hit AD model. In our model a population of neuronal cells is allowed to undergo renewal through neurogenesis and is susceptible to oxidative stress or cell cycle abnormalities with age-specific accumulation of damage. Baseline rates are fitted to AD population data for specific ages, gender, and for persons with an apolipoprotein 4 allele. We then explore how low LET or heavy ions may increase either of the two-hits or neurogenesis either through persistent oxidative stress, direct mutation, or through changes to the micro-environment, and suggest possible ways to develop accurate quantitative estimates of these processes for predicting AD risks following long-term space travel.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Modeling Uncertainty in Large Natural Resource Allocation Problems

The productivity of the world's natural resources is critically dependent on a variety of highly uncertain factors, which obscure individual investors and governments that seek to make long-term, sometimes irreversible investments in their exploration and utilization. These dynamic considerations are poorly represented in disaggregated resource models, as incorporating uncertainty into large-dimensional problems presents a challenging computational task. This study introduces a novel numerical method to solve large-scale dynamic stochastic natural resource allocation problems that cannot be addressed by conventional methods. The method is illustrated with an application focusing on the allocation of global land resource use under stochastic crop yields due to adverse climate impacts and limits on further technological progress. For the same model parameters, the range of land conversion is considerably smaller for the dynamic stochastic model as compared to deterministic scenario analysis. The scenario analysis can thus significantly overstate the magnitude of expected land conversion under uncertain crop yields.

Cai, Yongyang↗

A probabilistic fracture mechanics approach for structural reliability assessment of space flight systems

A probabilistic fracture mechanics approach for predicting the failure life distribution due to subcritical crack growth is presented. A state-of-the-art crack propagation method is used in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate a distribution of failure lives. The crack growth failure model expresses failure life as a function of stochastic parameters including environment, loads, material properties, geometry, and model specification errors. A stochastic crack growth rate model that considers the uncertainties due to scatter in the data and mode misspecification is proposed. The rationale for choosing a particular type of probability distribution for each stochastic input parameter and for specifying the distribution parameters is presented. The approach is demonstrated through a probabilistic crack growth failure analysis of a welded tube in the Space Shuttle Main Engine. A discussion of the results from this application of the methodology is given.

Sutharshana, S.↗

Wheat forecast economics effect study

A model to assess the value of improved information regarding the inventories, productions, exports, and imports of crop on a worldwide basis is discussed. A previously proposed model is interpreted in a stochastic control setting and the underlying assumptions of the model are revealed. In solving the stochastic optimization problem, the Markov programming approach is much more powerful and exact as compared to the dynamic programming-simulation approach of the original model. The convergence of a dual variable Markov programming algorithm is shown to be fast and efficient. A computer program for the general model of multicountry-multiperiod is developed. As an example, the case of one country-two periods is treated and the results are presented in detail. A comparison with the original model results reveals certain interesting aspects of the algorithms and the dependence of the value of information on the incremental cost function.

Mehra, R. K.↗

Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression

The operation of cyber-physical-human (CPH) systems is subject to various epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Overall trustworthiness of CPH systems relies on the trustworthiness of its components and their interactions. It is important that computational models comprising the cyber component of CPH provide predictions accompanied by a measure of confidence in model outcomes. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation are especially important in safety critical CPH systems. Gradient-boosted trees is a modeling approach capable both of learning the dynamics of a system and performing UQ. In this paper, we devise a method for using gradient boosting to learn the dynamics of a second order differential equation and estimate uncertainty at the same time. We do this by creating a custom loss function that trains the model to approximate the second derivative of a noisy time series, and to penalize based on a parameter that corresponds to the desired quantile. The resulting gradient boosting model can simulate stochastic trajectories of the system given a single starting point, that is, it can estimate both the expected trajectory and its uncertainty. We show that the uncertainty estimation is well calibrated and that the model can learn the dynamics even in the presence of noise. We demonstrate the approach on a simple cartpole system.

Autonomous systems↗

Performance evaluation of automated manufacturing systems using generalized stochastic Petri Nets

The main objective of this research is to develop a generic modeling methodology with a flexible and modular framework to aid in the design and performance evaluation of integrated manufacturing systems using a unified model. After a thorough examination of the available modeling methods, the Petri Net approach was adopted. The concurrent and asynchronous nature of manufacturing systems are easily captured by Petri Net models. Three basic modules were developed: machine, buffer, and Decision Making Unit. The machine and buffer modules are used for modeling transfer lines and production networks. The Decision Making Unit models the functions of a computer node in a complex Decision Making Unit Architecture. The underlying model is a Generalized Stochastic Petri Net (GSPN) that can be used for performance evaluation and structural analysis. GSPN's were chosen because they help manage the complexity of modeling large manufacturing systems. There is no need to enumerate all the possible states of the Markov Chain since they are automatically generated from the GSPN model.

Al-Jaar, Robert Y.↗

Probabilistic Prediction of Lifetimes of Ceramic Parts

ANSYS/CARES/PDS is a software system that combines the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) software with a modified version of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) Version 6.0 software. [A prior version of CARES/Life was reported in Program for Evaluation of Reliability of Ceramic Parts (LEW-16018), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 20, No. 3 (March 1996), page 28.] CARES/Life models effects of stochastic strength, slow crack growth, and stress distribution on the overall reliability of a ceramic component. The essence of the enhancement in CARES/Life 6.0 is the capability to predict the probability of failure using results from transient finite-element analysis. ANSYS PDS models the effects of uncertainty in material properties, dimensions, and loading on the stress distribution and deformation. ANSYS/CARES/PDS accounts for the effects of probabilistic strength, probabilistic loads, probabilistic material properties, and probabilistic tolerances on the lifetime and reliability of the component. Even failure probability becomes a stochastic quantity that can be tracked as a response variable. ANSYS/CARES/PDS enables tracking of all stochastic quantities in the design space, thereby enabling more precise probabilistic prediction of lifetimes of ceramic components.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

Quantum-Assisted Variational Segmentation for Image-to-Image Wildfire Detection Using Satellite Data

The quantum computing community has been searching for suitable applications to demonstrate the potential of near-term quantum devices. Quantum machine learning is a potential candidate, particularly using models that cannot be efficiently simulated with classical computers [1, 2]. This work focuses on a transition phase of quantum computers where the quantum machine learning model is still simulable classically but projected not to be simulable as the size of the model grows. Ultimately quantum computers may have advantages for high-dimensional real-world problems. Due to the limited number of qubits in current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices, the direct application of quantum computers in high dimensional data is not feasible. To remedy this problem, an encoder-decoder architecture can be utilized. The encoder model would transform the high-dimensional data into a compact representation, to a level that small quantum computers can be used today (or in the near future), and the decoder would take the quantum processed outputs back to the high-dimensional space. Addressing the two challenges of quantum machine learning, this work investigates a hybrid supervised generative model with a quantum Ising Born machine embedded as the latent distribution. The model contains four main parts (Figure 1.a.): (1) a U-NET architecture responsible for learning segmentation flow, (2) a Prior network responsible for learning an encoded latent distribution of the input data, (3) a Born machine which represents the latent distribution, and (4) a Posterior network in charge of learning the joint encoded latent distribution of inputs and target data. The initial model, proposed by [3], is optimized by (1) maximizing the overlap of the prior and posterior latent distributions, and (2) minimizing the segmentation loss. The proposed model is designed to be investigated in a simulation environment applied to the real-world application of wildfire segmentation. Specifically, the model is designed to solve the patchy wildfire segmentations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) by taking the MODIS observations and using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite’s (VIIRS) consistent wildfire product as the target. The model solves patchy wildfire segmentations and provides insight into the epistemic errors sourced from model variation. The model utilizes the Born machine as a QUBO solver to represent the latent space as a Bernoulli distribution. The proposed configuration allows the variational segmentation model to leverage the true quantum probabilistic nature and derive a more expressive latent configuration, increasing the model performance in describing wildfire segmentations. The quantum probabilistic information of the Born machine is directly incorporated in the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss in the prior and posterior distributions, forcing the Bernoulli latent distribution to maximize the overlap of input and joint input-target distributions. The proposed model is then trained and compared with a baseline only consisting of direct Bernoulli latent distribution with no Born machine representing the latent space. The models are evaluated based on the segmentation metrics, such as precision, recall, intersect of union, with uncertainty boundaries accounting for the stochastic nature of the model. Our findings show that even in low latent-dimensional space (due to the limit in computational power of the classical quantum simulator), we are able to effectively capture the latent representation and hence the model performs better than the baseline. The findings are a projection for scaling the model into higher dimensional latent space with the Born machine surpassing the baseline performance. Figure 1. Sub-figure (a) demonstrates the architecture for the training phase. The model consists of a Prior and Posterior network that encode inputs and joint input-target data into compact representations, respectively. The Born machine represents the latent distribution, and the U-NET branch learns the segmentation patterns of the data. The stochasticity is introduced to the U-NET through its last layer to create meaningful but stochastic segmentations. Sub-figure (b) represents the inference phase where the model takes the stochastic behavior from the prior network and injects that into the U-NET. Each attempt of inference will generate different but similar segmentations from the same distribution of the wildfire event. REFERENCES [1] Coyle, B., Mills, D., Danos, V., & Kashefi, E. (2020). The Born supremacy: quantum advantage and training of an Ising Born machine. npj Quantum Information, 6(1), 1-11. [2] Liu, J. G., & Wang, L. (2018). Differentiable learning of quantum circuit born machines. Physical Review A, 98(6), 062324. [3] Kohl, S., Romera-Paredes, B., Meyer, C., De Fauw, J., Ledsam, J. R., Maier-Hein, K., ... & Ronneberger, O. (2018). A probabilistic u-net for segmentation of ambiguous images. Advances in neural information processing systems, 31.

quantum machine learning↗

Forecasts of the 500 mb height using a dynamically oriented statistical model

The forecast skill of a simple dynamically inspired statistical model of the Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height field is evaluated in spectral and physical space for a variety of forecast lead times (1-32 days) and predictand averaging times (1-32 days). The model includes viscous damping, wave propagation, climatology and implicit stochastic forcing. The largest model skill was found for forecasts of the zonal flow and the largest waves. In general, the largest forecast skills were also associated with the largest forecast error, there being a slight geographic phase shift of the skill with respect to the error. Model skills for climate (time-averaged) forecasts are greater when using instantaneous rather than time averages to forecast time averages. Analysis of model errors suggests areas for improvement in representing forcing terms and model physics. However, the model error fields are largely 'white noise' which suggests that global forecast skills substantially larger than those obtained here are unlikely to be achieved by more sophisticated models.

Roads, J. O.↗

Use of LANDSAT images of vegetation cover to estimate effective hydraulic properties of soils

The estimation of the spatially variable surface moisture and heat fluxes of natural, semivegetated landscapes is difficult due to the highly random nature of the vegetation (e.g., plant species, density, and stress) and the soil (e.g., moisture content, and soil hydraulic conductivity). The solution to that problem lies, in part, in the use of satellite remotely sensed data, and in the preparation of those data in terms of the physical properties of the plant and soil. The work was focused on the development and testing of a stochastic geometric canopy-soil reflectance model, which can be applied to the physically-based interpretation of LANDSAT images. The model conceptualizes the landscape as a stochastic surface with bulk plant and soil reflective properties. The model is particularly suited for regional scale investigations where the quantification of the bulk landscape properties, such as fractional vegetation cover, is important on a pixel by pixel basis. A summary of the theoretical analysis and the preliminary testing of the model with actual aerial radiometric data is provided.

Eagleson, Peter S.↗

Evaluation of computing systems using functionals of a Stochastic process

An intermediate model was used to represent the probabilistic nature of a total system at a level which is higher than the base model and thus closer to the performance variable. A class of intermediate models, which are generally referred to as functionals of a Markov process, were considered. A closed form solution of performability for the case where performance is identified with the minimum value of a functional was developed.

Meyer, J. F.↗

Analysis of Terminal Deletions using a Generalized Time-Dependent Model of Radiation-Induced Formation of Chromosomal Aberrations

We have developed a model that can simulate different types of radiation induced chromosomal aberrations (CA's) and can provide predictions on the frequency and size of chromosomes with terminal deletions. Chromosomes with terminal deletions lack telomeres and this can elicit sister chromatid unions and the prolonged breakage/fusion/bridge (B/F/B) cycles that have been observed in mammalian tumors. The loss of a single telomere has been shown to cause extensive genomic instability through the B/F/B cycle process. Our model uses a stochastic process of DNA broken end joining, in which a realistic spectrum of CA's is created from improperly joined DNA free ends formed by DNA double strand breaks (DSBs). The distribution of the DNA free ends is given by a mechanistic model that takes into account the chromatin structure and track structure for high-LET radiation. The model allows for DSB clustering from high-LET radiation and simulates the formation of CA's in stages that correspond to the actual time after radiation exposure. The time scale for CA formation is derived from experimental data on DSB repair kinetics. At any given time a nucleus may have intact chromosomes, CA's, and/or unrepaired fragments, some of which are defined as terminal deletions, if they are capped by one telomere. The model produces a spectrum of terminal deletions with their corresponding probabilities and size distributions for different heavy ions exposures for the first division after exposure. This data provides valuable information because there is limited experimental data available in the literature on the on the actual size of terminal deletions. We compare our model output to the available experimental data and make a reasonable extrapolation on the number of chromosomes lacking telomeres in human lymphocytes exposed to heavy ions. This model generates data which may lead to predictions on the rate of genomic instability in cells after exposure to high charge and energy nuclei affecting astronauts during space missions.

Ponomarev, Artem L.↗

Assessing Effects of Climate and Technology Uncertainties in Large Natural Resource Allocation Problems

The productivity of the world's natural resources is critically dependent on a variety of highly uncertain factors, which obscure individual investors and governments that seek to make long-term, sometimes irreversible, investments in their exploration and utilization. These dynamic considerations are poorly represented in disaggregated resource models, as incorporating uncertainty into large-dimensional problems presents a challenging computational task. In this paper, we apply the SCEQ algorithm (Cai and Judd, 2023) to solve a large-scale dynamic stochastic global land resource use problem with stochastic crop yields due to adverse climate impacts and limits on further technological progress. For the same model parameters and bounded shocks, the range of land conversion is considerably smaller for the dynamic stochastic model than for deterministic scenario analysis.

numerical methods↗