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At least 397 records · Page 22

Decision rules for unbiased inventory estimates

An efficient and accurate procedure for estimating inventories from remote sensing scenes is presented. In place of the conventional and expensive full dimensional Bayes decision rule, a one-dimensional feature extraction and classification technique was employed. It is shown that this efficient decision rule can be used to develop unbiased inventory estimates and that for large sample sizes typical of satellite derived remote sensing scenes, resulting accuracies are comparable or superior to more expensive alternative procedures. Mathematical details of the procedure are provided in the body of the report and in the appendix. Results of a numerical simulation of the technique using statistics obtained from an observed LANDSAT scene are included. The simulation demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique in computing accurate inventory estimates.

Argentiero, P. D.↗

Statistical evaluation of vibration analysis techniques

An evaluation methodology is presented for a selection of candidate vibration analysis techniques applicable to machinery representative of the environmental control and life support system of advanced spacecraft; illustrative results are given. Attention is given to the statistical analysis of small sample experiments, the quantification of detection performance for diverse techniques through the computation of probability of detection versus probability of false alarm, and the quantification of diagnostic performance.

Milner, G. Martin↗

Slow crack growth in spinel in water

Magnesium aluminate spinel was tested in a water environment at room temperature to establish its slow crack-growth behavior. Ring specimens with artificial flaws on the outside surface were loaded hydraulically on the inside surface. The time to failure was measured. Various precracking techniques were evaluated and multiple precracks were used to minimize the scatter in the static fatigue tests. Statistical analysis techniques were developed to determine the strength and crack velocities for a single flaw. Slow crack-growth rupture was observed at stress intensities as low as 70 percent of K sub c. A strengthening effect was observed in specimens that had survived long-time static fatigue tests.

Schwantes, S.↗

How May the Choice of Downscaling Techniques and Meteorological Reference Observations Affect Future Hydroclimate Projections?

Abstract We present an intercomparison of a suite of high‐resolution downscaled climate projections based on a six‐member General Circulation Model (GCM) ensemble from Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs have been downscaled using dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques based on two meteorological reference observations over the conterminous United States. We use the regional climate model, RegCM4, for dynamical downscaling, double bias correction constructed analogs method for statistical downscaling, and Daymet and Livneh datasets as the reference observations for statistical training and bias‐correction. We evaluate the performances of downscaled data in both historical and future periods under the SSP585 scenario. While dynamical downscaling improves the simulation of some performance evaluation indices, it adds an extra bias in others, highlighting the need for statistical correction before its use in impact assessments. Downscaled datasets after bias‐correction compare exceptionally well with observations. However, the choice of downscaling techniques and the underlying reference observations influence the hydroclimate characteristics of downscaled data. For instance, the statistical downscaling generally preserves the GCMs climate change signal but overestimates the frequency of hot extremes. Similarly, simulated future changes are sensitive to the choice of reference observations, particularly for precipitation extremes that exhibit a higher projected increase in the ensembles trained and/or corrected by Daymet than Livneh. Overall, these results demonstrate that multiple factors, including downscaling techniques and reference observations, can substantially influence the outcome of downscaled climate projections and stress the need for a comprehensive understanding of such method‐based uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative Study of Differentially Private Data Synthesis Methods

When sharing data among researchers or releasing data for public use, there is a risk of exposing sensitive information of individuals in the data set. Data synthesis is a statistical disclosure limitation technique for releasing synthetic data sets with pseudo individual records. Traditional data synthesis techniques often rely on strong assumptions of a data intruder’s behaviors and background knowledge to assess disclosure risk. Differential privacy (DP) formulates a theoretical approach for a strong and robust privacy guarantee in data release without having to model intruders’ behaviors. Efforts have been made aiming to incorporate the DP concept in the data synthesis process. Here, we examine current DIfferentially Private Data Synthesis (DIPS) techniques for releasing individual-level surrogate data for the original data, compare the techniques conceptually and evaluate the statistical utility and inferential properties of the synthetic data via each DIPS technique through extensive simulation studies. Our work sheds light on the practical feasibility and utility of the various DIPS approaches, and suggests future research directions for DIPS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

WE-A-201-00: Anne and Donald Herbert Distinguished Lectureship On Modern Statistical Modeling

Chris Marshall: Memorial Introduction Donald Edmonds Herbert Jr., or Don to his colleagues and friends, exemplified the “big tent” vision of medical physics, specializing in Applied Statistics and Dynamical Systems theory. He saw, more clearly than most, that “Making models is the difference between doing science and just fooling around [ref Woodworth, 2004]”. Don developed an interest in chemistry at school by “reading a book” - a recurring theme in his story. He was awarded a Westinghouse Science scholarship and attended the Carnegie Institute of Technology (later Carnegie Mellon University) where his interest turned to physics and led to a BS in Physics after transfer to Northwestern University. After (voluntary) service in the Navy he earned his MS in Physics from the University of Oklahoma, which led him to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore to pursue a PhD. The early death of his wife led him to take a salaried position in the Physics Department of Colorado College in Colorado Springs so as to better care for their young daughter. There, a chance invitation from Dr. Juan del Regato to teach physics to residents at the Penrose Cancer Hospital introduced him to Medical Physics, and he decided to enter the field. He received his PhD from the University of London (UK) under Prof. Joseph Rotblat, where I first met him, and where he taught himself statistics. He returned to Penrose as a clinical medical physicist, also largely self-taught. In 1975 he formalized an evolving interest in statistical analysis as Professor of Radiology and Head of the Division of Physics and Statistics at the College of Medicine of the University of South Alabama in Mobile, AL where he remained for the rest of his career. He also served as the first Director of their Bio-Statistics and Epidemiology Core Unit working in part on a sickle-cell disease. After retirement he remained active as Professor Emeritus. Don served for several years as a consultant to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and may be remembered for his critique of the National Academy of Sciences BEIR III report (stating that their methodology “imposes a Delphic quality to the .. risk estimates”.) This led to his appointment as a member of the BEIR V committee. Don presented refresher courses at the AAPM, ASTRO and RSNA meetings and was active in the AAPM as a member or chair of several committees. He was the principal author of AAPM Report 43, which is essentially a critique of established clinical studies prior to 1992. He was co-editor of the Proceedings of many symposia on Time, Dose and Fractionation held in Madison, Wisconsin. He received the AAPM lifetime Achievement award in 2004. Don’s second wife of 46 years, Ann, predeceased him and he is survived by daughters Hillary and Emily, son John and two grandsons. Don was a true gentleman with a unique and erudite writing style illuminated by pithy quotations. If he had a fault it was, perhaps, that he did not realize how much smarter he was than the rest of us. This presentation draws heavily on a biography and video interview in the History and Heritage section of the AAPM website. The quote is his own. Andrzej Niemierko: Statistical modeling plays an essential role in modern medicine for quantitative evaluation of the effect of treatment. This session will feature an overview of statistical modeling techniques used for analyzing the many types of research data and an exploration of recent advances in new statistical modeling methodologies. Learning Objectives: To learn basics of statistical modeling methodology. To discuss statistical models that are frequently used in radiation oncology To discuss advanced modern statistical modeling methods and applications.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

WE-A-201-01: Memorial Introduction

Chris Marshall: Memorial Introduction Donald Edmonds Herbert Jr., or Don to his colleagues and friends, exemplified the “big tent” vision of medical physics, specializing in Applied Statistics and Dynamical Systems theory. He saw, more clearly than most, that “Making models is the difference between doing science and just fooling around [ref Woodworth, 2004]”. Don developed an interest in chemistry at school by “reading a book” - a recurring theme in his story. He was awarded a Westinghouse Science scholarship and attended the Carnegie Institute of Technology (later Carnegie Mellon University) where his interest turned to physics and led to a BS in Physics after transfer to Northwestern University. After (voluntary) service in the Navy he earned his MS in Physics from the University of Oklahoma, which led him to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore to pursue a PhD. The early death of his wife led him to take a salaried position in the Physics Department of Colorado College in Colorado Springs so as to better care for their young daughter. There, a chance invitation from Dr. Juan del Regato to teach physics to residents at the Penrose Cancer Hospital introduced him to Medical Physics, and he decided to enter the field. He received his PhD from the University of London (UK) under Prof. Joseph Rotblat, where I first met him, and where he taught himself statistics. He returned to Penrose as a clinical medical physicist, also largely self-taught. In 1975 he formalized an evolving interest in statistical analysis as Professor of Radiology and Head of the Division of Physics and Statistics at the College of Medicine of the University of South Alabama in Mobile, AL where he remained for the rest of his career. He also served as the first Director of their Bio-Statistics and Epidemiology Core Unit working in part on a sickle-cell disease. After retirement he remained active as Professor Emeritus. Don served for several years as a consultant to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and may be remembered for his critique of the National Academy of Sciences BEIR III report (stating that their methodology “imposes a Delphic quality to the .. risk estimates”.) This led to his appointment as a member of the BEIR V committee. Don presented refresher courses at the AAPM, ASTRO and RSNA meetings and was active in the AAPM as a member or chair of several committees. He was the principal author of AAPM Report 43, which is essentially a critique of established clinical studies prior to 1992. He was co-editor of the Proceedings of many symposia on Time, Dose and Fractionation held in Madison, Wisconsin. He received the AAPM lifetime Achievement award in 2004. Don’s second wife of 46 years, Ann, predeceased him and he is survived by daughters Hillary and Emily, son John and two grandsons. Don was a true gentleman with a unique and erudite writing style illuminated by pithy quotations. If he had a fault it was, perhaps, that he did not realize how much smarter he was than the rest of us. This presentation draws heavily on a biography and video interview in the History and Heritage section of the AAPM website. The quote is his own. Andrzej Niemierko: Statistical modeling plays an essential role in modern medicine for quantitative evaluation of the effect of treatment. This session will feature an overview of statistical modeling techniques used for analyzing the many types of research data and an exploration of recent advances in new statistical modeling methodologies. Learning Objectives: To learn basics of statistical modeling methodology. To discuss statistical models that are frequently used in radiation oncology To discuss advanced modern statistical modeling methods and applications.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

WE-A-201-02: Modern Statistical Modeling

Chris Marshall: Memorial Introduction Donald Edmonds Herbert Jr., or Don to his colleagues and friends, exemplified the “big tent” vision of medical physics, specializing in Applied Statistics and Dynamical Systems theory. He saw, more clearly than most, that “Making models is the difference between doing science and just fooling around [ref Woodworth, 2004]”. Don developed an interest in chemistry at school by “reading a book” - a recurring theme in his story. He was awarded a Westinghouse Science scholarship and attended the Carnegie Institute of Technology (later Carnegie Mellon University) where his interest turned to physics and led to a BS in Physics after transfer to Northwestern University. After (voluntary) service in the Navy he earned his MS in Physics from the University of Oklahoma, which led him to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore to pursue a PhD. The early death of his wife led him to take a salaried position in the Physics Department of Colorado College in Colorado Springs so as to better care for their young daughter. There, a chance invitation from Dr. Juan del Regato to teach physics to residents at the Penrose Cancer Hospital introduced him to Medical Physics, and he decided to enter the field. He received his PhD from the University of London (UK) under Prof. Joseph Rotblat, where I first met him, and where he taught himself statistics. He returned to Penrose as a clinical medical physicist, also largely self-taught. In 1975 he formalized an evolving interest in statistical analysis as Professor of Radiology and Head of the Division of Physics and Statistics at the College of Medicine of the University of South Alabama in Mobile, AL where he remained for the rest of his career. He also served as the first Director of their Bio-Statistics and Epidemiology Core Unit working in part on a sickle-cell disease. After retirement he remained active as Professor Emeritus. Don served for several years as a consultant to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and may be remembered for his critique of the National Academy of Sciences BEIR III report (stating that their methodology “imposes a Delphic quality to the .. risk estimates”.) This led to his appointment as a member of the BEIR V committee. Don presented refresher courses at the AAPM, ASTRO and RSNA meetings and was active in the AAPM as a member or chair of several committees. He was the principal author of AAPM Report 43, which is essentially a critique of established clinical studies prior to 1992. He was co-editor of the Proceedings of many symposia on Time, Dose and Fractionation held in Madison, Wisconsin. He received the AAPM lifetime Achievement award in 2004. Don’s second wife of 46 years, Ann, predeceased him and he is survived by daughters Hillary and Emily, son John and two grandsons. Don was a true gentleman with a unique and erudite writing style illuminated by pithy quotations. If he had a fault it was, perhaps, that he did not realize how much smarter he was than the rest of us. This presentation draws heavily on a biography and video interview in the History and Heritage section of the AAPM website. The quote is his own. Andrzej Niemierko: Statistical modeling plays an essential role in modern medicine for quantitative evaluation of the effect of treatment. This session will feature an overview of statistical modeling techniques used for analyzing the many types of research data and an exploration of recent advances in new statistical modeling methodologies. Learning Objectives: To learn basics of statistical modeling methodology. To discuss statistical models that are frequently used in radiation oncology To discuss advanced modern statistical modeling methods and applications.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Field Penetration in a Rectangular Box Using Numerical Techniques: An Effort to Obtain Statistical Shielding Effectiveness

This paper emphasizes the application of numerical methods to explore the ideas related to shielding effectiveness from a statistical view. An empty rectangular box is examined using a hybrid modal/moment method. The basic computational method is presented followed by the results for single- and multiple observation points within the over-moded empty structure. The statistics of the field are obtained by using frequency stirring, borrowed from the ideas connected with reverberation chamber techniques, and extends the ideas of shielding effectiveness well into the multiple resonance regions. The study presented in this paper will address the average shielding effectiveness over a broad spatial sample within the enclosure as the frequency is varied.

Bunting, Charles F.↗

Power flow as a complement to statistical energy analysis and finite element analysis

Present methods of analysis of the structural response and the structure-borne transmission of vibrational energy use either finite element (FE) techniques or statistical energy analysis (SEA) methods. The FE methods are a very useful tool at low frequencies where the number of resonances involved in the analysis is rather small. On the other hand SEA methods can predict with acceptable accuracy the response and energy transmission between coupled structures at relatively high frequencies where the structural modal density is high and a statistical approach is the appropriate solution. In the mid-frequency range, a relatively large number of resonances exist which make finite element method too costly. On the other hand SEA methods can only predict an average level form. In this mid-frequency range a possible alternative is to use power flow techniques, where the input and flow of vibrational energy to excited and coupled structural components can be expressed in terms of input and transfer mobilities. This power flow technique can be extended from low to high frequencies and this can be integrated with established FE models at low frequencies and SEA models at high frequencies to form a verification of the method. This method of structural analysis using power flo and mobility methods, and its integration with SEA and FE analysis is applied to the case of two thin beams joined together at right angles.

Cuschieri, J. M.↗

Excluding Benchmark Statistical Outliers in Nuclear Criticality Safety Validation: A Comparison Study of Upper Subcritical Limits for Plutonium Systems using Whisper-1.1

Neutron transport methods used to establish subcriticality require validation by comparison to critical experiments considered to be benchmarks. Whisper is a sensitivity/uncertainty analysis tool developed to assist with the task of validation in nuclear criticality safety. Details on the Whisper methodology can be found in References 1-3 on the MCNP® reference collection website at https://mcnp.lanl.gov. During the process of validation there can be cases where a benchmark experiment may be found to be a statistical outlier, in which the calculated k-effective value and the experiment k-effective value differ by an amount atypical for similar experiments. A methodology optionally employed by Whisper is the exclusion of statistical outliers based upon the iterative diagonal chi-squared statistical rejection technique. Alternatively, there is an option to include all benchmarks in the Whisper library collection, even those benchmarks found to be statistical outliers, when computing the bias, bias uncertainty and margin of subcriticality (MOS) leading to establishment of the baseline upper subcritical limit (USL). A comparison study has been done to compute USLs with and without statistical outliers in the Whisper benchmark collection to determine what effect rejection of statistical outliers has on the recommended USL. The results show little overall difference in the recommended baseline USLs developed by Whisper when excluding statistical outliers. Additionally, there does not appear to be a clear trend in predicting whether the baseline USL will be higher or lower when rejecting statistical outliers from the benchmark critical experiment collection used for validation.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble-Based Estimates of Solvation Free Energies

This paper applies the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) statistical ensemble technique to estimate small molecule solvation free energies. There is a wide range methods for predicting solvation free energies, ranging from empirical statistical models to {\it ab initio} quantum mechanical approaches. Each of these methods are based on a set of conceptual assumptions that can affect a method's predictive accuracy and transferability. Using an iterative statistical process, we have selected and combined solvation energy estimates using an ensemble of 17 diverse methods from the SAMPL4 blind prediction study to form a single, aggregated solvation energy estimate. The ensemble design process evaluates the statistical information in each individual method as well as the performance of the aggregate estimate obtained from the ensemble as a whole. Methods that possess minimal or redundant information are pruned from the ensemble and the evaluation process repeats until aggregate predictive performance can no longer be improved. We show that this process results in a final aggregate estimate that outperforms all individual methods by reducing estimate errors by as much as 91% to 1.2 kcal/mol accuracy. We also compare our iterative refinement approach to other statistical ensemble approaches and demonstrate that this iterative process reduces estimate errors by as much as 61%. This work provides a new approach for accurate solvation free energy prediction and lays the foundation for future work on aggregate models that can balance computational cost with predictive accuracy.

solvation, Bayesian model averaging, Electrostatic↗

Comparison of transform coding methods with an optimal predictor for the data compression of digital elevation models

Statistical encoding techniques enable the reduction of the number of bits required to encode a set of symbols, and are derived from their probabilities. Huffman encoding is an example of statistical encoding that has been used for error-free data compression. The degree of compression given by Huffman encoding in this application can be improved by the use of prediction methods. These replace the set of elevations by a set of corrections that have a more advantageous probability distribution. In particular, the method of Lagrange Multipliers for minimization of the mean square error has been applied to local geometrical predictors. Using this technique, an 8-point predictor achieved about a 7 percent improvement over an existing simple triangular predictor.

Lewis, Michael↗

Estimation of elastic moduli of graphene monolayer in lattice statics approach at nonzero temperature

For the aim of the crystal temperature control the computational-statistical approach to studying thermo-mechanical properties for finite sized crystals is presented. The approach is based on the combination of the high-performance computational techniques and statistical analysis of the crystal response on external thermo-mechanical actions for specimens with the statistically small amount of atoms (for instance, nanoparticles). The heat motion of atoms is imitated in the statics approach by including the independent degrees of freedom for atoms connected with their oscillations. We obtained that under heating, graphene material response is nonsymmetric.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Remote sensing of atmospheric water vapor, liquid water and wind speed at the ocean surface by passive microwave techniques from the Nimbus-5 satellite

The microwave brightness temperature measurements for Nimbus-5 electrically scanned microwave radiometer and Nimbus E microwave spectrometer are used to retrieve the atmospheric water vapor, liquid water and wind speed by a quasi-statistical retrieval technique. It is shown that the brightness temperature can be utilized to yield these parameters under various weather conditions. Observations at 19.35 GHz, 22.235 GHz and 31.4 GHz were input to the regression equations. The retrieved values of these parameters for portions of two Nimbus-5 orbits are presented. Then comparison between the retrieved parameters and the available observations on the total water vapor content and the surface wind speed are made. The estimated errors for retrieval are approximately 0.15 g/sq cm for water vapor content, 6.5 mg/sq cm for liquid water content and 6.6 m/sec for surface wind speed.

Chang, A. T. C.↗