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At least 397 records · Page 22

I’ll have the Porter: Interactively Visualizing the Results of Statistical Maneuver Analysis

Mission design and navigation relies on statistical maneuver analysis and Monte Carlo simulations when evaluating candidate mission trajectories. Engineers must analyze large quantities of data to optimize mission safety and propellant margins, but currently rely on static text files and dense PDF slide decks to review simulation results. This approach is time-intensive, non-interactive, and difficult to share or coordinate with other mission designers. To improve this process, we present Porter: a web-based interactive mission analysis tool. This work describes Porter’s user-centered design process, its processing pipeline for importing and processing LAMBIC simulation data, core interactive features, and preliminary user feedback.

Ramaswamy, Basak Alper↗

Modeling the Stochastic Response of Fiber Reinforced Composites with Varied Representative Volume Element Sizes

Fiber reinforced composites are desirable in applications where low weight and high strength are needed, but are susceptible to variability and flaws during manufacturing, making failure predictions difficult. These flaws may occur at the microscale where mechanical properties vary locally due to regions of fiber clusters and matrix pockets. In this study, a multiscale approach was taken to model 3-point bend, 4-point bend, and tensile experiments of a unidirectional composite from only having microstructure scans of these samples and constituent properties from literature. These scans were sampled with different sized windows, and statistically equivalent microstructures were generated, then simulated for stiffness, strength, and fracture toughness using a reduced order micromechanical model and NASA’s Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT). Mesoscale models were created with equivalent element sizes to microstructures and properties sampled from microscale simulation results. Results showed how microscale size affects certain mechanical properties. Also shown is how well mesoscale models agree to experiments when using stochastic element properties and varying element size.

microstructure↗

Design of an Adsorption Bed for Exploration Trace Contaminant Control

The state-of-the-art in long mission duration spacecraft trace contaminant control processes relies on physical and chemical adsorption for contaminant removal. Target species for adsorption include low and semivolatile organic compounds while chemisorption is utilized for metabolic ammonia control. When adsorption is employed in conjunction with a high temperature oxidation process, a complementary impact on cabin air quality may be realized. The adsorption bed also serves to guard the downstream oxidation catalyst from foulants and potential poisons which may decrease its lifetime and activity. To this end, a packed adsorption guard-bed was sized to control a statistical contaminant load model over a simulated Mars transit mission duration. The updated load model incorporates flight air-quality data and contemporary metabolic source emission literature. The guard-bed was operated in tandem with an exploration prototype thermal catalytic oxidizer. The exploration guard-bed prototype included design considerations from recent flight technology demonstrations and changes intended to improve compatibility with enriched oxygen exploration cabin environments as compared to the prior-art of contaminant control system design.

Trace Contaminant Control↗

Experimental analysis of computer system dependability

This paper reviews an area which has evolved over the past 15 years: experimental analysis of computer system dependability. Methodologies and advances are discussed for three basic approaches used in the area: simulated fault injection, physical fault injection, and measurement-based analysis. The three approaches are suited, respectively, to dependability evaluation in the three phases of a system's life: design phase, prototype phase, and operational phase. Before the discussion of these phases, several statistical techniques used in the area are introduced. For each phase, a classification of research methods or study topics is outlined, followed by discussion of these methods or topics as well as representative studies. The statistical techniques introduced include the estimation of parameters and confidence intervals, probability distribution characterization, and several multivariate analysis methods. Importance sampling, a statistical technique used to accelerate Monte Carlo simulation, is also introduced. The discussion of simulated fault injection covers electrical-level, logic-level, and function-level fault injection methods as well as representative simulation environments such as FOCUS and DEPEND. The discussion of physical fault injection covers hardware, software, and radiation fault injection methods as well as several software and hybrid tools including FIAT, FERARI, HYBRID, and FINE. The discussion of measurement-based analysis covers measurement and data processing techniques, basic error characterization, dependency analysis, Markov reward modeling, software-dependability, and fault diagnosis. The discussion involves several important issues studies in the area, including fault models, fast simulation techniques, workload/failure dependency, correlated failures, and software fault tolerance.

Iyer, Ravishankar, K.↗

Broken Ergodicity in MHD Turbulence in a Spherical Domain

Broken ergodicity (BE) occurs in Fourier method numerical simulations of ideal, homogeneous, incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence. Although naive statistical theory predicts that Fourier coefficients of fluid velocity and magnetic field are zero-mean random variables, numerical simulations clearly show that low-wave-number coefficients have non-zero mean values that can be very large compared to the associated standard deviation. In other words, large-scale coherent structure (i.e., broken ergodicity) in homogeneous MHD turbulence can spontaneously grow out of random initial conditions. Eigenanalysis of the modal covariance matrices in the probability density functions of ideal statistical theory leads to a theoretical explanation of observed BE in homogeneous MHD turbulence. Since dissipation is minimal at the largest scales, BE is also relevant for resistive magnetofluids, as evidenced in numerical simulations. Here, we move beyond model magnetofluids confined by periodic boxes to examine BE in rotating magnetofluids in spherical domains using spherical harmonic expansions along with suitable boundary conditions. We present theoretical results for 3-D and 2-D spherical models and also present computational results from dynamical simulations of 2-D MHD turbulence on a rotating spherical surface. MHD turbulence on a 2-D sphere is affected by Coriolus forces, while MHD turbulence on a 2-D plane is not, so that 2-D spherical models are a useful (and simpler) intermediate stage on the path to understanding the much more complex 3-D spherical case.

Shebalin, John V.↗

Constraining the Statistics of Population III Binaries

We perform a cosmological simulation in order to model the growth and evolution of Population III (Pop III) stellar systems in a range of host minihalo environments. A Pop III multiple system forms in each of the ten minihaloes, and the overall mass function is top-heavy compared to the currently observed initial mass function in the Milky Way. Using a sink particle to represent each growing protostar, we examine the binary characteristics of the multiple systems, resolving orbits on scales as small as 20 AU. We find a binary fraction of approx. 36, with semi-major axes as large as 3000 AU. The distribution of orbital periods is slightly peaked at approx. < 900 yr, while the distribution of mass ratios is relatively flat. Of all sink particles formed within the ten minihaloes, approx. 50 are lost to mergers with larger sinks, and 50 of the remaining sinks are ejected from their star-forming disks. The large binary fraction may have important implications for Pop III evolution and nucleosynthesis, as well as the final fate of the first stars.

Statistics↗

Vorticity and divergence in the solar photosphere

We have studied an outstanding sequence of continuum images of the solar granulation from Pic du Midi Observatory. We have calculated the horizontal vector flow field using a correlation tracking algorithm, and from this determined three scalar field: the vertical component of the curl; the horizontal divergence; and the horizontal flow speed. The divergence field has substantially longer coherence time and more power than does the curl field. Statistically, curl is better correlated with regions of negative divergence - that is, the vertical vorticity is higher in downflow regions, suggesting excess vorticity in intergranular lanes. The average value of the divergence is largest (i.e., outflow is largest) where the horizontal speed is large; we associate these regions with exploding granules. A numerical simulation of general convection also shows similar statistical differences between curl and divergence. Some individual small bright points in the granulation pattern show large local vorticities.

Wang, YI↗

The Effects of Sensor Field-of-View on the Geometrical Characteristics of Sea Ice Leads and Implications for Large-Area Heat Flux Estimates

The release of heat from sea ice fractures ('leads') is an important component of the heat budget in the Arctic, but their impact on regional scale climate is difficult to assess without more information on their distribution in both space and time. Remote sensing of leads using satellite data, specifically AVHRR thermal and Landsat visible-band imagery, is examined empirically with respect to lead width, orientation, and area fraction. The geometrical aspects of the sensor are simulated so that the effect of sensor field-of-view on retrieved lead width statistics can be assessed. This is done using Landsat data and simulated lead networks degraded to AVHRR pixel sizes. The analyses illustrate how leads of sufficiently high contrast tend to 'grow' with increasing pixel size and how small or low contrast leads disappear. The relationship between lead contrast and the width/field-of-view ratio is also examined in order to determine the limits of lead detectability, and illustrates the multivalued nature of the problem of lead width retrieval. To help quantify the importance of changes in lead statistics, turbulent heat flux is calculated as a function of lead width and lead fraction. It is shown that pixel size has a substantial effect on estimates of turbulent heat transfer from leads to the atmosphere.

Key, J.↗

Simulation and study of small numbers of random events

Random events were simulated by computer and subjected to various statistical methods to extract important parameters. Various forms of curve fitting were explored, such as least squares, least distance from a line, maximum likelihood. Problems considered were dead time, exponential decay, and spectrum extraction from cosmic ray data using binned data and data from individual events. Computer programs, mostly of an iterative nature, were developed to do these simulations and extractions and are partially listed as appendices. The mathematical basis for the compuer programs is given.

Shelton, R. D.↗

Approximate statistics of random vector magnitudes

Simple, rough approximations are presented for the mean and 99% values for random vectors of up to three independent elements. The accuracy of the provided approximate expressions has been investigated with the aid of Monte Carlo simulations involving 15 different combinations of the three statistical parameters. The results of this investigation are discussed.

Hagar, H., Jr.↗

Scale Dependence of Multiplier Distributions for Particle Concentration, Enstrophy, and Dissipation in the Inertial Range of Homogeneous Turbulence

Turbulent flows preferentially concentrate inertial particles depending on their stopping time or Stokes number, which can lead to significant spatial variations in the particle concentration. Cascade models are one way to describe this process in statistical terms. Here, we use a direct numerical simulation (DNS) dataset of homogeneous, isotropic turbulence to determine probability distribution functions (PDFs) for cascade multipliers, which determine the ratio by which a property is partitioned into subvolumes as an eddy is envisioned to decay into smaller eddies. We present a technique for correcting effects of small particle numbers in the statistics. We determine multiplier PDFs for particle number, flow dissipation, and enstrophy, all of which are shown to be scale dependent. However, the particle multiplier PDFs collapse when scaled with an appropriately defined local Stokes number. As anticipated from earlier works, dissipation and enstrophy multiplier PDFs reach an asymptote for sufficiently small spatial scales. From the DNS measurements, we derive a cascade model that is used it to make predictions for the radial distribution function (RDF) for arbitrarily high Reynolds numbers, Re, finding good agreement with the asymptotic, infinite Re inertial range theory of Zaichik and Alipchenkov [New J. Phys. 11, 103018 (2009)]. We discuss implications of these results for the statistical modeling of the turbulent clustering process in the inertial range for high Reynolds numbers inaccessible to numerical simulations.

turbulent flows↗

Statistical fluctuations in Monte Carlo calculations

The time counter and modified Nanbu simulation techniques are analyzed, with emphasis placed on the convergence of the calculations to a steady macroscopic state. Such variables as translational and rotational temperature, and flow velocity, sampled at several points in the flowfield, are considered. Both macroscopic averages and molecular distribution functions are analyzed. The calculation of inelastic collisions, in which transfer of energy between translational and internal energy modes is performed, is achieved through the use of the Larsen-Borgnakke phenomenological model. It is noted that, with reference to translational temperature, the time counter method shows less statistical scatter than that found with the modified Nanbu simulation technique.

Boyd, I. D.↗

Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

A statistical investigation of the single-point pdf of velocity and vorticity based on direct numerical simulations

Vorticity plays a fundamental role in turbulent flows. The dynamics of vorticity in turbulent flows and the effect on single-point closure models were investigated. The approach was to use direct numerical simulations of turbulent flows to investigate the pdf of velocity and vorticity. The preliminary study of homogeneous shear flow has shown that the expectation of the fluctuating pressure gradient, conditioned with a velocity component, is linear in the velocity component, and that the coefficient is independent of velocity and vorticity. In addition, the work shows that the expectation of the pressure gradient, conditioned with a vorticity component, is essentially zero.

Mortazavi, M.↗

Development of Monte Carlo Capability for Orion Parachute Simulations

Parachute test programs employ Monte Carlo simulation techniques to plan testing and make critical decisions related to parachute loads, rate-of-descent, or other parameters. This paper describes the development and use of a MATLAB-based Monte Carlo tool for three parachute drop test simulations currently used by NASA. The Decelerator System Simulation (DSS) is a legacy 6 Degree-of-Freedom (DOF) simulation used to predict parachute loads and descent trajectories. The Decelerator System Simulation Application (DSSA) is a 6-DOF simulation that is well suited for modeling aircraft extraction and descent of pallet-like test vehicles. The Drop Test Vehicle Simulation (DTVSim) is a 2-DOF trajectory simulation that is convenient for quick turn-around analysis tasks. These three tools have significantly different software architectures and do not share common input files or output data structures. Separate Monte Carlo tools were initially developed for each simulation. A recently-developed simulation output structure enables the use of the more sophisticated DSSA Monte Carlo tool with any of the core-simulations. The task of configuring the inputs for the nominal simulation is left to the existing tools. Once the nominal simulation is configured, the Monte Carlo tool perturbs the input set according to dispersion rules created by the analyst. These rules define the statistical distribution and parameters to be applied to each simulation input. Individual dispersed parameters are combined to create a dispersed set of simulation inputs. The Monte Carlo tool repeatedly executes the core-simulation with the dispersed inputs and stores the results for analysis. The analyst may define conditions on one or more output parameters at which to collect data slices. The tool provides a versatile interface for reviewing output of large Monte Carlo data sets while preserving the capability for detailed examination of individual dispersed trajectories. The Monte Carlo tool described in this paper has proven useful in planning several Crew Exploration Vehicle parachute tests.

Moore, James W.↗

Shielding Effectiveness in a Two-Dimensional Reverberation Chamber Using Finite-Element Techniques

Reverberation chambers are attaining an increased importance in determination of electromagnetic susceptibility of avionics equipment. Given the nature of the variable boundary condition, the ability of a given source to couple energy into certain modes and the passband characteristic due the chamber Q, the fields are typically characterized by statistical means. The emphasis of this work is to apply finite-element techniques at cutoff to the analysis of a two-dimensional structure to examine the notion of shielding-effectiveness issues in a reverberating environment. Simulated mechanical stirring will be used to obtain the appropriate statistical field distribution. The shielding effectiveness (SE) in a simulated reverberating environment is compared to measurements in a reverberation chamber. A log-normal distribution for the SE is observed with implications for system designers. The work is intended to provide further refinement in the consideration of SE in a complex electromagnetic environment.

Bunting, Charles F.↗

Effects of wall curvature on turbulence statistics

A three-dimensional, time-dependent, direct numerical simulation of low-Reynolds number turbulent flow in a mildly curved channel was performed, and the results examined to determine the mechanism by which curvature affects wall-bounded turbulent shear flows. A spectral numerical method with about one-million modes was employed, and no explicit subgrid scale model was used. The effects of curvature on this flow were determined by comparing the concave and convex sides of the channel. The observed effects are consistent with experimental observations for mild curvature. The most significant difference in the turbulence statistics between the concave and convex sides is in the Reynolds shear stress. This is accompanied by significant differences in the terms of the Reynolds shear stress balance equations. In addition, it was found that stationary Taylor-Goertler vortices were present and that they had a significant effect on the flow by contributing to the mean Reynolds shear stress, and by enhancing the difference between the wall shear stresses.

Moser, R. D.↗

The Development of Design Tools for Fault Tolerant Quantum Dot Cellular Automata Based Logic

We are developing software to explore the fault tolerance of quantum dot cellular automata gate architectures in the presence of manufacturing variations and device defects. The Topology Optimization Methodology using Applied Statistics (TOMAS) framework extends the capabilities of the A Quantum Interconnected Network Array Simulator (AQUINAS) by adding front-end and back-end software and creating an environment that integrates all of these components. The front-end tools establish all simulation parameters, configure the simulation system, automate the Monte Carlo generation of simulation files, and execute the simulation of these files. The back-end tools perform automated data parsing, statistical analysis and report generation.

Armstrong, Curtis D.↗