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DOE OSTI2019

Total Measurement Uncertainty in Neutron Coincidence Multiplicity Analysis

Neutron multiplicity analysis is a widely used technique in international safeguards and is most commonly applied to the assay of product and scrap materials in the production of mixed oxide fuel. The typical neutron multiplicity analysis applies only a crude, almost cursory, uncertainty analysis limited to propagation of statistical errors in the derived singles, doubles, and triples count rates through the point source model. While these analyses do not account for uncertainties in basic detector parameters (e.g., efficiency or gate utilization factors), nuclear data, or covariances between any of these values, measurement uncertainties are often quoted in the range of 1–2% of the resulting mass values. In this work, we examined the impact of the nuclear data and instrumentation uncertainties on the multiplicity assay result for various counting regimes using the point-model equations as the basis for discussion. Potential biases introduced by the current nuclear data set on the measurement and the need for a more complete error treatment when we progress beyond empirical calibrations based on highly representative items will be discussed.

Mcelroy Jr, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2021

A new generation of uranium coincidence fast neutron collars for assay of LWR fresh fuel assemblies

The active uranium neutron coincidence collar provides a means of non-destructively assaying the fissile linear density of Light Water Reactor fresh fuel assemblies containing low enriched uranium. These neutron collars can operate in two modes: a thermal and a fast mode. In fast mode, a neutron collar has an added cadmium (Cd) liner in the sample cavity of the detector to reduce the impact of the burnable poison (thermal neutron absorber) on the detector signal (doubles). The main advantage for operating in fast mode is a detected signal that is less dependent of the burnable neutron poison content and thus less dependent on facility operator declarations. The drawback is that operating in fast mode requires a longer measurement time (~hour vs tens of minutes for thermal mode) to achieve the statistically needed precision in the measurements. The trend in the modern reactor fuel assemblies is moving to higher burnup by using higher initial enrichment and, consequently, a higher number of burnable poison rods to compensate the initial neutron reactivity. The increase of the burnable poison loading has motivated the development of a new generation of high efficiency fast neutron collars to allow practical measurements in-field by nuclear inspectors. This paper describes the development and performance evaluation of a new generation of neutron collars, for both boiling water reactor (BWR) and pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuels, jointly developed between the US Department of Energy, through Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the Euratom Safeguards Directorate of the European Commission. In this work, we present here calibrations with reference fuel assemblies at Los Alamos National Laboratory as well as the results of in-field measurement campaigns in fuel fabrication plants with modern commercial fuel assemblies. The experimental results show that a typical PWR verification can be made in a total time of 30 min with an uncertainty in the measured mass of 2% at one standard deviation (1σ). A BWR verification can be made in 47 min with an uncertainty in the measured mass of 1.9% at 1σ, or a total time of 20 min with 1σ uncertainty in the measured mass of 2.5%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advanced Intra-Cycle Detection of Pre-Ignition Events through Phase-Space Transforms of Cylinder Pressure Data

The widespread adoption of boosted, downsized SI engines has brought pre-ignition phenomena into greater focus, as the knock events resulting from pre-ignitions can cause significant hardware damage. Much attention has been given to understanding the causes of pre-ignition and identify lubricant or fuel properties and engine design and calibration considerations that impact its frequency. This helps to shift the pre-ignition limit to higher specific loads and allow further downsizing but does not fundamentally eliminate the problem. Real-time detection and mitigation of pre-ignition would thus be desirable to allow safe engine operation in pre-ignition-prone conditions. This study focuses on advancing the time of detection of pre-ignition in an engine cycle where it occurs. Furthermore, phase space transforms through time-delay embedding of cylinder pressure and principal component analysis were applied to same-cycle detection of pre-ignition and shown to enable detection on the order of a crank degree earlier than deviation in cylinder pressure can be identified through direct statistical observation of the pressure data. Additionally, it appears that the deviation of the trajectory in phase space may offer the opportunity to extend this method to further extend the detection window and allow more time for mitigation actions to occur.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Validation of the Scientific Program for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) was designed to conduct a survey covering 14,000 deg$^{2}$ over 5 yr to constrain the cosmic expansion history through precise measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO). The scientific program for DESI was evaluated during a 5 month survey validation (SV) campaign before beginning full operations. This program produced deep spectra of tens of thousands of objects from each of the stellar Milky Way Survey (MWS), Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS), luminous red galaxy (LRG), emission line galaxy (ELG), and quasar target classes. These SV spectra were used to optimize redshift distributions, characterize exposure times, determine calibration procedures, and assess observational overheads for the 5 yr program. In this paper, we present the final target selection algorithms, redshift distributions, and projected cosmology constraints resulting from those studies. We also present a One-Percent Survey conducted at the conclusion of SV covering 140 deg$^{2}$ using the final target selection algorithms with exposures of a depth typical of the main survey. The SV indicates that DESI will be able to complete the full 14,000 deg$^{2}$ program with spectroscopically confirmed targets from the MWS, BGS, LRG, ELG, and quasar programs with total sample sizes of 7.2, 13.8, 7.46, 15.7, and 2.87 million, respectively. These samples will allow exploration of the Milky Way halo, clustering on all scales, and BAO measurements with a statistical precision of 0.28% over the redshift interval z < 1.1, 0.39% over the redshift interval 1.1 < z < 1.9, and 0.46% over the redshift interval 1.9 < z < 3.5.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Galaxy assembly bias and large-scale distribution: a comparison between IllustrisTNG and a semi-analytic model

In this work, we compare large scale structure observables for stellar mass selected samples at z = 0, as predicted by two galaxy models, the hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG and the Santa-Cruz semi-analytic model (SC-SAM). Although both models have been independently calibrated to match observations, rather than each other, we find good agreement between the two models for two-point clustering and galaxy assembly bias signatures. The models also show a qualitatively similar response of occupancy and clustering to secondary halo parameters other than mass, such as formation history and concentration, although with some quantitative differences. Thus, our results demonstrate that the galaxy–halo relationships in SC-SAM and TNG are quite similar to first order. However, we also find areas in which the models differ. For example, we note a strong correlation between halo gas content and environment in TNG, which is lacking in the SC-SAM, as well as differences in the occupancy predictions for low-mass haloes. Moreover, we show that higher order statistics, such as cumulants of the density field, help us to accurately describe the galaxy distribution and discriminate between models that show degenerate behaviour for two-point statistics. Our results suggest that SAMs are a promising cost-effective and intuitive method for generating mock catalogues for next generation cosmological surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Snowmass 2021 Scintillating Bubble Chambers: Liquid-noble Bubble Chambers for Dark Matter and CE$\nu$NS Detection

The Scintillating Bubble Chamber (SBC) Collaboration is developing liquid-noble bubble chambers for the quasi-background-free detection of low-mass (GeV-scale) dark matter and coherent scattering (CE$\nu$NS) of low-energy (MeV-scale) neutrinos. The first physics-scale demonstrator of this technique, a 10-kg liquid argon bubble chamber dubbed SBC-LAr10, is now being commissioned at Fermilab. This device will calibrate the background discrimination power and sensitivity of superheated argon to nuclear recoils at energies down to 100 eV. A second functionally-identical detector with a focus on radiopure construction is being built for SBC's first dark matter search at SNOLAB. The projected spin-independent sensitivity of this search is approximately $10^{-43}$ cm$^2$ at 1 GeV$/c^2$ dark matter particle mass. The scalability and background discrimination power of the liquid-noble bubble chamber make this technique a compelling candidate for future dark matter searches to the solar neutrino fog at 1 GeV$/c^2$ particle mass (requiring a $\sim$ton-year exposure with non-neutrino backgrounds sub-dominant to the solar CE$\nu$NS signal) and for high-statistics CE$\nu$NS studies at nuclear reactors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Informed total-error-minimizing priors: Interpretable cosmological parameter constraints despite complex nuisance effects

While Bayesian inference techniques are standard in cosmological analyses, it is common to interpret resulting parameter constraints with a frequentist intuition. This intuition can fail, for example, when marginalizing high-dimensional parameter spaces onto subsets of parameters, because of what has come to be known as projection effects or prior volume effects. We present the method of informed total-error-minimizing (ITEM) priors to address this problem. An ITEM prior is a prior distribution on a set of nuisance parameters, such as those describing astrophysical or calibration systematics, intended to enforce the validity of a frequentist interpretation of the posterior constraints derived for a set of target parameters (e.g., cosmological parameters). Our method works as follows. For a set of plausible nuisance realizations, we generate target parameter posteriors using several different candidate priors for the nuisance parameters. We reject candidate priors that do not accomplish the minimum requirements of bias (of point estimates) and coverage (of confidence regions among a set of noisy realizations of the data) for the target parameters on one or more of the plausible nuisance realizations. Of the priors that survive this cut, we select the ITEM prior as the one that minimizes the total error of the marginalized posteriors of the target parameters. As a proof of concept, we applied our method to the density split statistics measured in Dark Energy Survey Year 1 data. We demonstrate that the ITEM priors substantially reduce prior volume effects that otherwise arise and that they allow for sharpened yet robust constraints on the parameters of interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

ASPIRES: Airport Shuttle Planning and Improved Routing Event-driven Simulation

Most of the existing traffic simulation packages require significant calibration work to be able to reflect reality. To evaluate special operations including emerging technologies, a microscopic simulation that tracks detailed interactions of all the elements of the traffic systems is usually needed. This type of simulation is usually computationally demanding. This work developed an Airport Shuttle Planning and Improved Routing Event-driven Simulation (ASPIRES) package to simulate and evaluate current, potential, and future airport shuttle operations. Here, the simulation was driven by data and thus did not require much calibration effort. The discrete-event simulation nature of ASPIRES makes the simulation computationally efficient. Simulating 1 day of shuttle operations takes less than 2s. The study site of this work is the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport in the U.S. The shuttle service that connects the five terminals of the airport and the rental car center was studied. Travel times, dwell times, and passenger arrivals were simulated using empirical distributions derived mainly from real data to capture the stochastic nature of the rental car center shuttle bus operations. Data on bus miles traveled, bus energy consumption, passenger wait times, and passengers left behind at stops were collected to study the trade-off between energy use and passenger experience. Electric bus and on-demand bus operations were also included. The simulation outputs can show passengers statistics at terminals, shuttles statistics, and charging station statistics. ASPIRES cannot be used to model a generic traffic system but is well-suited for fleet systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A measurement of the Hubble constant from Type II supernovae

ABSTRACT Progressive increases in the precision of the Hubble-constant measurement via Cepheid-calibrated Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have shown a discrepancy of ∼4.4σ with the current value inferred from Planck satellite measurements of the cosmic microwave background radiation and the standard $\Lambda $cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmological model. This disagreement does not appear to be due to known systematic errors and may therefore be hinting at new fundamental physics. Although all of the current techniques have their own merits, further improvement in constraining the Hubble constant requires the development of as many independent methods as possible. In this work, we use SNe II as standardisable candles to obtain an independent measurement of the Hubble constant. Using seven SNe II with host-galaxy distances measured from Cepheid variables or the tip of the red giant branch, we derive H$_0= 75.8^{+5.2}_{-4.9}$ km s−1 Mpc−1 (statistical errors only). Our value favours that obtained from the conventional distance ladder (Cepheids + SNe Ia) and exhibits a difference of 8.4 km s−1 Mpc−1 from the Planck + ΛCDM value. Adding an estimate of the systematic errors (2.8 km s−1 Mpc−1) changes the ∼1.7σ discrepancy with Planck +ΛCDM to ∼1.4σ. Including the systematic errors and performing a bootstrap simulation, we confirm that the local H0 value exceeds the value from the early Universe with a confidence level of 95 per cent. As in this work, we only exchange SNe II for SNe Ia to measure extragalactic distances, we demonstrate that there is no evidence that SNe Ia are the source of the H0 tension.

de Jaeger, T.↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Cross-matching of High Proper-motion Stars in Gaia DR2 and Photometric Metallicities for ∼1.7 million K and M Dwarfs

We present a Bayesian method to cross-match 5,827,988 high proper-motion Gaia sources (μ > 40 mas yr{sup −1}) to various photometric surveys: Two Micron All Sky Survey, AllWISE data release from the Wide-field Infrared Explorer (WISE) mission, Galaxy Evolution Explorer, Radial Velocity Experiment, Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS). To efficiently associate these objects across catalogs, we develop a technique that compares the multidimensional distribution of all sources in the vicinity of each Gaia star to a reference distribution of random field stars obtained by extracting all sources in a region on the sky displaced 2′. This offset preserves the local field stellar density and magnitude distribution, allowing us to characterize the frequency of chance alignments. The resulting catalog with Bayesian probabilities >95% has a marginally higher match rate than current internal Gaia data release 2 (DR2) matches for most catalogs. However, a significant improvement is found with Pan-STARRS, where ∼99.8% of the sample within the Pan-STARRS footprint is recovered, as compared to a low ∼20.8% in Gaia DR2. Using these results, we train a Gaussian process regressor to calibrate two photometric metallicity relationships. For dwarfs of 3500 < T{sub eff} < 5280 K, we use metallicity values of 4378 stars from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment and Hejazi et al. to calibrate the relationship, producing results with a 1σ precision of 0.12 dex and few systematic errors. We then indirectly infer the metallicity of 4018 stars with 2850 < T{sub eff} < 3500 K, which are wide companions of primaries whose metallicities are estimated with our first regressor, to produce a relationship with a 1σ precision of 0.21 dex and significant systematic errors. Additional work is needed to better remove unresolved binaries from this second sample to reduce these systematic errors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2019

Development of the Barrel Calorimeter Reconstruction and Measurement of the Beam Asymmetry (S) for Photoproduced π 0 and η Mesons with the GlueX Experiment

The GlueX experiment is located in Hall D at Jefferson Lab with the primary goal of mapping out the spectrum of hybrid mesons. GlueX features a nearly-4π hermetic detector capable of measuring neutral and charged particles produced by a 9 GeV linearly polarized photon beam incident on a liquid hydrogen target. A description of the detector is presented to give an overview of the experiment. A lot of effort has been put forth into analyzing the data recorded by the detector. Here I discuss improving the performance of the Barrel Calorimeter subdetector by calibrating the gains and improving the reconstruction software. The immediate physics goal of GlueX is to measure observables of known particles, especially those that are expected to be decay particles of hybrid mesons, such as π 0 and η. To understand the photoproduction mechanism of these two particles the beam asymmetry (S) observable is measured. The measurements of Σ are obtained as a function of the four-momentum transfer squared, -t, in the photon energy range of 8.2 GeV to 8.8 GeV in the three dominant decay modes of the η meson and in the dominant decay mode of the π 0 meson. These are the first results for the η meson at this beam energy in multiple decay modes. The results agree with previously published GlueX results for η and π 0 and are made with significantly higher statistical precision. There is also agreement between theory predictions and the results which indicates that the resonance production mechanisms of the π 0 and η mesons are dominated by natural parity exchange.

McGinley, William Edmund↗

DOE OSTI2021

Planck constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio

In this work, we present constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r using Planck data. We use the latest release of Planck maps (PR4), processed with the NPIPE code, which produces calibrated frequency maps in temperature and polarization for all Planck channels from 30 GHz to 857 GHz using the same pipeline. We computed constraints on r using the BB angular power spectrum, and we also discuss constraints coming from the TT spectrum. Given Planck's noise level, the TT spectrum gives constraints on r that are cosmic-variance limited (with $\sigma$ r = 0.093), but we show that the marginalized posterior peaks towards negative values of r at about the 1.2$\sigma$ level. We derived Planck constraints using the BB power spectrum at both large angular scales (the 'reionization bump') and intermediate angular scales (the 'recombination bump') from $\ell$=2 to 150, and find a stronger constraint than that from TT, with $\sigma$ r = 0.069. The Planck BB spectrum shows no systematic bias, and is compatible with zero, given both the statistical noise and the systematic uncertainties. The likelihood analysis using B modes yields the constraint r < 0.158 at 95% confidence using more than 50% of the sky. This upper limit tightens to r < 0.069 when Planck EE, BB, and EB power spectra are combined consistently, and it tightens further to r < 0.056 when the Planck TT power spectrum is included in the combination. Finally, combining Planck with BICEP2/Keck 2015 data yields an upper limit of r < 0.044.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

J-PLUS: Systematic impact of metallicity on photometric calibration with the stellar locus

Here, we present the photometric calibration of the twelve optical passbands for the Javalambre Photometric Local Universe Survey (J-PLUS) second data release (DR2), comprising 1088 pointings of two square degrees, and study the systematic impact of metallicity on the stellar locus technique. The [Fe/H] metallicity from the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) for 146 184 high-quality calibration stars, defined with signal-to-noise ratio larger than ten in J-PLUS passbands and larger than three in Gaia parallax, was used to compute the metallicity-dependent stellar locus (ZSL). The initial homogenization of J-PLUS photometry, performed with a unique stellar locus, was refined by including the metallicity effect in colors via the ZSL. The variation of the average metallicity along the Milky Way produces a systematic offset in J-PLUS calibration. This effect is well above 1% for the bluer passbands and amounts 0.07, 0.07, 0.05, 0.03, and 0.02 mag in u, J0378, J0395, J0410, and J0430, respectively. We modeled this effect with the Milky Way location of the J-PLUS pointing, also providing an updated calibration for those observations without LAMOST information. The estimated accuracy in the calibration after including the metallicity effect is at 1% for the bluer J-PLUS passbands and below for the rest. Photometric calibration with the stellar locus technique is prone to significant systematic bias in the Milky Way for passbands bluer than λ = 4500 Å. The calibration method for J-PLUS DR2 reaches 1–2% precision and 1% accuracy for 12 optical filters within an area of 2176 square degrees.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Active learning emulators for nuclear two-body scattering in momentum space

In this work we extend the active learning emulators for two-body scattering in coordinate space with error estimation, recently developed by Maldonado et al. [Phys. Rev. C 112, 024002], to coupled-channel scattering in momentum space. Our full-order model (FOM) solver is based on the Lippmann-Schwinger integral equation for the scattering t-matrix as opposed to the radial Schrödinger equation. We use (Petrov-)Galerkin projections and high-fidelity calculations at a few snapshots across the parameter space of the interaction to construct efficient reduced-order models (ROMs), trained by a greedy algorithm for locally optimal snapshot selection. Both the FOM solver and the corresponding ROMs are implemented efficiently in Python using Google's JAX library. We present results for emulating scattering phase shifts in coupled and uncoupled channels and cross sections, and assess the accuracy of the developed ROMs and their computational speedup factors. We also develop emulator error estimation for both the t-matrix and the total cross section. The software framework for reproducing and extending our results is publicly available. Together with our recent advances in developing active-learning emulators for three-body scattering, these emulator frameworks set the stage for full Bayesian calibrations of chiral nuclear interactions and optical models against scattering data with quantified emulator errors.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Stochastic Study of Flow Anisotropy and Channelling in Open Rough Fractures

The quantification of fluid flow in rough fractures is of high interest for reservoir engineering, especially for deep geothermal applications. Herein, rough self-affine fractures are stochastically generated with incremental shear displacement and geometrically described by two aperture definitions, the vertical aperture a vert and the effective aperture a eff . In order to compare their effect on fracture flow, such as anisotropy and channelling, Local Cubic Law (LCL) model-based 2D fluid flow is simulated. The particularity of this approach is the combination of a stochastic generation of self-affine fractures with a statistical analysis (560 individual realizations) of the impact of the LCL’s aperture constraint on fracture flow. The results show that aperture definition affects the quantitative interpretation of flow anisotropy and channeling as well as the aperture distribution of the fractures with shearing. Higher values of mean aperture for a given fracture are found using a vert , whereas the aperture standard deviation is larger with a eff . In addition, flow anisotropy is significantly sensitive to aperture definition for small shear displacements and shows a relative higher dispersion with a eff . Thus, LCL prediction models based on a vert are expected to lead to higher dispersion of anisotropy results with a higher uncertainty (factor ~ 2). Realizations based on avert lead to an enhanced clustering of high flow rates for higher shearing displacements. This channeling development results in higher total flow rates for these simulations. Finally, these findings support the direct calibration of pre-existing LCL anisotropy simulations based on avert towards more representative results using a eff .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Inferring Viral Transmission Time from Phylogenies for Known Transmission Pairs

When the time of an HIV transmission event is unknown, methods to identify it from virus genetic data can reveal the circumstances that enable transmission. We developed a single-parameter Markov model to infer transmission time from an HIV phylogeny constructed of multiple virus sequences from people in a transmission pair. Our method finds the statistical support for transmission occurring in different possible time slices. We compared our time-slice model results to previously described methods: a tree-based logical transmission interval, a simple parsimony-like rules-based method, and a more complex coalescent model. Across simulations with multiple transmitted lineages, different transmission times relative to the source’s infection, and different sampling times relative to transmission, we found that overall our time-slice model provided accurate and narrower estimates of the time of transmission. We also identified situations when transmission time or direction was difficult to estimate by any method, particularly when transmission occurred long after the source was infected and when sampling occurred long after transmission. Applying our model to real HIV transmission pairs showed some agreement with facts known from the case investigations. We also found, however, that uncertainty on the inferred transmission time was driven more by uncertainty from time calibration of the phylogeny than from the model inference itself. Encouragingly, comparable performance of the Markov time-slice model and the coalescent model—which make use of different information within a tree—suggests that a new method remains to be described that will make full use of the topology and node times for improved transmission time inference.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗