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NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainty Assessment of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) Dataset

The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset is comprised of downscaled climate projections that are derived from 21 General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and across two of the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Each of the climate projections includes daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for the periods from 1950 through 2100 and the spatial resolution is 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km by 25 km). The GDDP dataset has received warm welcome from the science community in conducting studies of climate change impacts at local to regional scales, but a comprehensive evaluation of its uncertainties is still missing. In this study, we apply the Perfect Model Experiment framework (Dixon et al. 2016) to quantify the key sources of uncertainties from the observational baseline dataset, the downscaling algorithm, and some intrinsic assumptions (e.g., the stationary assumption) inherent to the statistical downscaling techniques. We developed a set of metrics to evaluate downscaling errors resulted from bias-correction ("quantile-mapping"), spatial disaggregation, as well as the temporal-spatial non-stationarity of climate variability. Our results highlight the spatial disaggregation (or interpolation) errors, which dominate the overall uncertainties of the GDDP dataset, especially over heterogeneous and complex terrains (e.g., mountains and coastal area). In comparison, the temporal errors in the GDDP dataset tend to be more constrained. Our results also indicate that the downscaled daily precipitation also has relatively larger uncertainties than the temperature fields, reflecting the rather stochastic nature of precipitation in space. Therefore, our results provide insights in improving statistical downscaling algorithms and products in the future.

general circulation model (GCM)↗

NASA NTRS1975

Wave theory of turbulence in compressible media (acoustic theory of turbulence)

The generation and the transmission of sound in turbulent flows are treated as one of the several aspects of wave propagation in turbulence. Fluid fluctuations are decomposed into orthogonal Fourier components, with five interacting modes of wave propagation: two vorticity modes, one entropy mode, and two acoustic modes. Wave interactions, governed by the inhomogeneous and nonlinear terms of the perturbed Navier-Stokes equations, are modeled by random functions which give the rates of change of wave amplitudes equal to the averaged interaction terms. The statistical framework adopted is a quantum-like formulation in terms of complex distribution functions. The spatial probability distributions are given by the squares of the absolute values of the complex characteristic functions. This formulation results in nonlinear diffusion-type transport equations for the probability densities of the five modes of wave propagation.

Kentzer, C. P.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Analysis of low altitude atmospheric turbulence data measured in flight

All three components of turbulence were measured simultaneously in flight at each wing tip of a Beech D-18 aircraft. The flights were conducted at low altitude, 30.5 - 61.0 meters (100-200 ft.), over water in the presence of wind driven turbulence. Statistical properties of flight measured turbulence were compared with Gaussian and non-Gaussian turbulence models. Spatial characteristics of the turbulence were analyzed using the data from flight perpendicular and parallel to the wind. The probability density distributions of the vertical gusts show distinctly non-Gaussian characteristics. The distributions of the longitudinal and lateral gusts are generally Gaussian. The power spectra compare in the inertial subrange at some points better with the Dryden spectrum, while at other points the von Karman spectrum is a better approximation. In the low frequency range the data show peaks or dips in the power spectral density. The cross between vertical gusts in the direction of the mean wind were compared with a matched non-Gaussian model. The real component of the cross spectrum is in general close to the non-Gaussian model. The imaginary component, however, indicated a larger phase shift between these two gust components than was found in previous research.

Ganzer, V. M.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Application of information theory to the design of line-scan imaging systems

Information theory is used to formulate a single figure of merit for assessing the performance of line scan imaging systems as a function of their spatial response (point spread function or modulation transfer function), sensitivity, sampling and quantization intervals, and the statistical properties of a random radiance field. Computational results for the information density and efficiency (i.e., the ratio of information density to data density) are intuitively satisfying and compare well with experimental and theoretical results obtained by earlier investigators concerned with the performance of TV systems.

Huck, F. O.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Large-scale sea surface temperature variability from satellite and shipboard measurements

A series of satellite sea surface temperature intercomparison workshops were conducted under NASA sponsorship at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Three different satellite data sets were compared with each other, with routinely collected ship data, and with climatology, for the months of November 1979, December 1981, March 1982, and July 1982. The satellite and ship data were differenced against an accepted climatology to produce anomalies, which in turn were spatially and temporally averaged into two-degree latitude-longitude, one-month bins. Monthly statistics on the satellite and ship bin average temperatures yielded rms differences ranging from 0.58 to 1.37 C, and mean differences ranging from -0.48 to 0.72 C, varying substantially from month to month, and sensor to sensor.

Bernstein, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Determination of inverted-V stability from Dynamics Explorer satellite data

The longevity of a number of inverted-V electron precipitation events was measured by comparing electron distributions acquired from the two Dynamics Explorer spacecraft during close proximity passes through the southern auroral zone. Common events were identified in the two data sets for time separations up to 18 min. The maximum energy attained within an inverted-V sometimes varied between observations indicating growth or decay of the event. The number of events increasing in energy was roughly equal to those exhibiting decreasing energy, suggesting similar time scales for growth and decay. Observations closely spaced in time (minutes) had some events not in common, implying either a sudden cessation of the event or a limited spatial extent precluding observation by one of the two spacecraft due to its orbital displacement. A statistical study of 28 close proximity passes showed that the number of matched inverted-V events exceeded those which were unmatched. This was not true for comparisons of random pairs of electron distribution plots for the two spacecraft. This implies that the close proximity events observed by both spacecraft were not just random coincidences.

Thieman, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Large-scale sea surface temperature variability from satellite and shipboard measurements

Bernstein, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Analysis of wind profile measurements from an instrumented aircraft

The results of an experimental program to determine the capability of measuring wind profiles on support of STS operations with an instrumented aircraft are discussed. These results are a compilation of the flight experiments and the statistical data comparing the quality of the aircraft measurements with quasi-simultaneous and quasi-spatial overlapping Jimsphere measurements. An instrumented aircraft was chosen as a potential alternative to the Jimsphere/radar system for expediting the wind profile calculation by virtue of the ability of an aircraft to traverse the altitudes of interest in roughly 10 minutes. The two aircraft which participated in the study were F-104 and ER-2.

Paige, Terry S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The thermal engine of Venus: Implications from the impact crater distribution

Questions concerning the state of Venus' volcanological activity are currently under investigation. These questions were raised by the imaging radar and altimetric data obtained by the Magellan spacecraft, which began mapping Venus in Sept. 1990. Clues about the answers to these questions are provided by the nature and distribution of impact craters on the surface of Venus. Statistical tests show that the distribution of craters on Venus cannot be distinguished from a completely spatially random population. Further, the majority of craters look relatively pristine; only about 5 percent of the observed craters appear to be embayed or flooded by lavas. The simplest interpretation of these observations is a model in which the impact craters lie on a surface that has been undisturbed by volcanological and tectonic processes since the time the surface was formed. Counting up the number of craters and estimating the rate at which meteoroids strike the surface then gives an age for the venusian surface of 500 million years; in this model the volcanic activity since that time has been essentially nil. This scenario is described as a 'production' model, or perhaps more appropriately, a 'catastrophic' model.

Phillips, Roger J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Stellar density enhancements associated with IRAS sources in L1641

We obtained H and K' images of 59 Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) sources associated with dense molecular gas in L1641. Some of the sources were also imaged in narrow-band L and M. Using these near-IR images and photometry, we are able to identify the near-IR counterparts for most of the IRAS sources. The spectral energy distributions of the sources suggest that all of them are young stellar objects (class I and II sources). Most importantly, we find in this study that 14 IRAS sources are associated with small (but statistically significant) groupings of bright near-IR sources defined as stellar density enhancements (SDEs). The spatial distribution of young stars in the Orion A molecular cloud can be characterized by a range of stellar densities, from the Trapezium Cluster, to the SDEs, to individual stars. We conjecture that the SDEs are regions of continuous star formation within or around dense molecular cores and that they may represent an important mode of star formation in L1641. If true, adjustments to the standard star formation model may be required.

Chen, Hua↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Transfer Function Model as a Tool to Study and Describe Space Weather Phenomena

The Transfer Function Model (TFM) is a semi-analytical, linear model that is designed especially to describe thermospheric perturbations associated with magnetic storms and substorm. activity. It is a multi-constituent model (N2, O, He H, Ar) that accounts for wind induced diffusion, which significantly affects not only the composition and mass density but also the temperature and wind fields. Because the TFM adopts a semianalytic approach in which the geometry and temporal dependencies of the driving sources are removed through the use of height-integrated Green's functions, it provides physical insight into the essential properties of processes being considered, which are uncluttered by the accidental complexities that arise from particular source geometrie and time dependences. Extending from the ground to 700 km, the TFM eliminates spurious effects due to arbitrarily chosen boundary conditions. A database of transfer functions, computed only once, can be used to synthesize a wide range of spatial and temporal sources dependencies. The response synthesis can be performed quickly in real-time using only limited computing capabilities. These features make the TFM unique among global dynamical models. Given these desirable properties, a version of the TFM has been developed for personal computers (PC) using advanced platform-independent 3D visualization capabilities. We demonstrate the model capabilities with simulations for different auroral sources, including the response of ducted gravity waves modes that propagate around the globe. The thermospheric response is found to depend strongly on the spatial and temporal frequency spectra of the storm. Such varied behavior is difficult to describe in statistical empirical models. To improve the capability of space weather prediction, the TFM thus could be grafted naturally onto existing statistical models using data assimilation.

Porter, Hayden S.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Jet Noise Physics and Modeling Using First-principles Simulations

An extensive analysis of our jet DNS database has provided for the first time the complex correlations that are the core of many statistical jet noise models, including MGBK. We have also for the first time explicitly computed the noise from different components of a commonly used noise source as proposed in many modeling approaches. Key findings are: (1) While two-point (space and time) velocity statistics are well-fitted by decaying exponentials, even for our low-Reynolds-number jet, spatially integrated fourth-order space/retarded-time correlations, which constitute the noise "source" in MGBK, are instead well-fitted by Gaussians. The width of these Gaussians depends (by a factor of 2) on which components are considered. This is counter to current modeling practice, (2) A standard decomposition of the Lighthill source is shown by direct evaluation to be somewhat artificial since the noise from these nominally separate components is in fact highly correlated. We anticipate that the same will be the case for the Lilley source, and (3) The far-field sound is computed in a way that explicitly includes all quadrupole cancellations, yet evaluating the Lighthill integral for only a small part of the jet yields a far-field noise far louder than that from the whole jet due to missing nonquadrupole cancellations. Details of this study are discussed in a draft of a paper included as appendix A.

Freund, Jonathan B.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Characterization of Transport Errors in Chemical Forecasts from a Global Tropospheric Chemical Transport Model

We propose a new methodology to characterize errors in the representation of transport processes in chemical transport models. We constrain the evaluation of a global three-dimensional chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) with an extended dataset of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations obtained during the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft campaign. The TRACEP mission took place over the western Pacific, a region frequently impacted by continental outflow associated with different synoptic-scale weather systems (such as cold fronts) and deep convection, and thus provides a valuable dataset. for our analysis. Model simulations using both forecast and assimilated meteorology are examined. Background CO concentrations are computed as a function of latitude and altitude and subsequently subtracted from both the observed and the model datasets to focus on the ability of the model to simulate variability on a synoptic scale. Different sampling strategies (i.e., spatial displacement and smoothing) are applied along the flight tracks to search for systematic model biases. Statistical quantities such as correlation coefficient and centered root-mean-square difference are computed between the simulated and the observed fields and are further inter-compared using Taylor diagrams. We find no systematic bias in the model for the TRACE-P region when we consider the entire dataset (i.e., from the surface to 12 km ). This result indicates that the transport error in our model is globally unbiased, which has important implications for using the model to conduct inverse modeling studies. Using the First-Look assimilated meteorology only provides little improvement of the correlation, in comparison with the forecast meteorology. These general statements can be refined when the entire dataset is divided into different vertical domains, i.e., the lower troposphere (less than 2 km), the middle troposphere (2-6 km), and the upper troposphere (greater than 6 km). The best agreement between the observations and the model is found in the lower and middle troposphere. Downward displacements in the lower troposphere provide a better fit with the observed value, which could indicate a problem in the representation of boundary layer height in the model. Significant improvement is also found for downward and southward displacements in the upper troposphere. There are several potential sources of errors in our simulation of the continental outflow in the upper troposphere which could lead to such biases, including the location and/or the strength of deep convective cells as well as that of wildfires in Southeast Asia.

Bey, I.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Statistical Considerations of Data Processing in Giovanni Online Tool

The GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Infrastructure (Giovanni) is a web-based interface for the rapid visualization and analysis of gridded data from a number of remote sensing instruments. The GES DISC currently employs several Giovanni instances to analyze various products, such as Ocean-Giovanni for ocean products from SeaWiFS and MODIS-Aqua; TOMS & OM1 Giovanni for atmospheric chemical trace gases from TOMS and OMI, and MOVAS for aerosols from MODIS, etc. (http://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov) Foremost among the Giovanni statistical functions is data averaging. Two aspects of this function are addressed here. The first deals with the accuracy of averaging gridded mapped products vs. averaging from the ungridded Level 2 data. Some mapped products contain mean values only; others contain additional statistics, such as number of pixels (NP) for each grid, standard deviation, etc. Since NP varies spatially and temporally, averaging with or without weighting by NP will be different. In this paper, we address differences of various weighting algorithms for some datasets utilized in Giovanni. The second aspect is related to different averaging methods affecting data quality and interpretation for data with non-normal distribution. The present study demonstrates results of different spatial averaging methods using gridded SeaWiFS Level 3 mapped monthly chlorophyll a data. Spatial averages were calculated using three different methods: arithmetic mean (AVG), geometric mean (GEO), and maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). Biogeochemical data, such as chlorophyll a, are usually considered to have a log-normal distribution. The study determined that differences between methods tend to increase with increasing size of a selected coastal area, with no significant differences in most open oceans. The GEO method consistently produces values lower than AVG and MLE. The AVG method produces values larger than MLE in some cases, but smaller in other cases. Further studies indicated that significant differences between AVG and MLE methods occurred in coastal areas where data have large spatial variations and a log-bimodal distribution instead of log-normal distribution.

Suhung, Shen↗

NASA NTRS1995

On the Feasibility of Satellite Altimeter Tomography

The time-varying field of sea surface height (SSH) reflects a large number of dynamical processes including a broad range of baroclinic waves. Inertia-gravity (IG) and Rossby waves (RW) are readily detected in power spectra F(k) of SSH spatial variations, as well as in wavenumber-frequency spectral, ,k), and autocorrelation functions W(). these statistical characteristics contain information on dynamical processes in the upper thermocline. We show that the well-known 3-segment shape of 1-d spectra (based on SSH variations along satellite tracks) is determined by the Internal Rossby radius of deformation and by the degree of nonlinearity of baroclinic IG waves. Analyzing altimeter-based spectra of SSH variations in the light of a recently proposed theory for IG wave turbulence, we demonstrate that baroclinic IG waves are typically highly nonlinear. For a number of mid- and high-latitude regions, the internal Rossby radius and the wave nonlinearity are estimated from T/P data and shown to agree with expected values. The degree of the wave nonlinearity is of great practical interest. In particular, it tells us about the intensity of internal wave breaking. Furthermore, estimating the velocity of baroclinic RW we derive additional information on the upper layer stratification. These experiments point to the feasibility of using observed SSH field statistics (such F(k) and W()) to monitor properties of and dynamical processes in the upper mixed layer of the ocean.

Satellite Altimeter↗

NASA NTRS2017

Nominal 30-M Cropland Extent Map of Continental Africa by Integrating Pixel-Based and Object-Based Algorithms Using Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 Data on Google Earth Engine

A satellite-derived cropland extent map at high spatial resolution (30-m or better) is a must for food and water security analysis. Precise and accurate global cropland extent maps, indicating cropland and non-cropland areas, is a starting point to develop high-level products such as crop watering methods (irrigated or rainfed), cropping intensities (e.g., single, double, or continuous cropping), crop types, cropland fallows, as well as assessment of cropland productivity (productivity per unit of land), and crop water productivity (productivity per unit of water). Uncertainties associated with the cropland extent map have cascading effects on all higher-level cropland products. However, precise and accurate cropland extent maps at high spatial resolution over large areas (e.g., continents or the globe) are challenging to produce due to the small-holder dominant agricultural systems like those found in most of Africa and Asia. Cloud-based Geospatial computing platforms and multi-date, multi-sensor satellite image inventories on Google Earth Engine offer opportunities for mapping croplands with precision and accuracy over large areas that satisfy the requirements of broad range of applications. Such maps are expected to provide highly significant improvements compared to existing products, which tend to be coarser in resolution, and often fail to capture fragmented small-holder farms especially in regions with high dynamic change within and across years. To overcome these limitations, in this research we present an approach for cropland extent mapping at high spatial resolution (30-m or better) using the 10-day, 10 to 20-m, Sentinel-2 data in combination with 16-day, 30-m, Landsat-8 data on Google Earth Engine (GEE). First, nominal 30-m resolution satellite imagery composites were created from 36,924 scenes of Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 images for the entire African continent in 2015-2016. These composites were generated using a median-mosaic of five bands (blue, green, red, near-infrared, NDVI) during each of the two periods (period 1: January-June 2016 and period 2: July-December 2015) plus a 30-m slope layer derived from the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) elevation dataset. Second, we selected Cropland/Non-cropland training samples (sample size 9791) from various sources in GEE to create pixel-based classifications. As supervised classification algorithm, Random Forest (RF) was used as the primary classifier because of its efficiency, and when over-fitting issues of RF happened due to the noise of input training data, Support Vector Machine (SVM) was applied to compensate for such defects in specific areas. Third, the Recursive Hierarchical Segmentation (RHSeg) algorithm was employed to generate an object-oriented segmentation layer based on spectral and spatial properties from the same input data. This layer was merged with the pixel-based classification to improve segmentation accuracy. Accuracies of the merged 30-m crop extent product were computed using an error matrix approach in which 1754 independent validation samples were used. In addition, a comparison was performed with other available cropland maps as well as with LULC maps to show spatial similarity. Finally, the cropland area results derived from the map were compared with UN FAO statistics. The independent accuracy assessment showed a weighted overall accuracy of 94, with a producers accuracy of 85.9 (or omission error of 14.1), and users accuracy of 68.5 (commission error of 31.5) for the cropland class. The total net cropland area (TNCA) of Africa was estimated as 313 Mha for the nominal year 2015.

Cropland mapping; cropland areas; 30-m; Landsat-8;↗

NASA NTRS2019

Deep Mapping of Small Solar System Bodies with Galactic Cosmic Ray Secondary Particle Showers

We will investigate the use of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) secondary particles to probe the deep interiors of small solar system bodies (SSBs), including comets, asteroids, and geologic structures on the surfaces of airless bodies. Applications include solar system science, planetary defense, and resource utilization. Our Phase I study demonstrated that muons, the long-range charged component of GCR showers, can penetrate SSBs up to a km in diameter, providing information on their interior structure. Muons produced in Earth’s atmosphere have been applied to image the interior of large objects for science and engineering. In Phase I, we found that the production of muons in the solid surfaces of airless bodies is much smaller than in Earth’s atmosphere. Nevertheless, the flux of transmitted muons is sufficient to detect inclusions within an asteroid or comet in a reasonable amount of time, ranging from hours to weeks, depending on the size of the SSB and the density contrast, position and size of the inclusion. For asteroids and comets, large density variations (e.g., porous soil or ice versus solid rock) are relatively easy to detect. The intrinsic spatial resolution of muon radiography (“muography”) is on the scale of a few meters. The spatial resolution that can be achieved in practice depends on signal intensity and integration time (counting statistics), the angular resolution of the muon tracker (hodoscope) and details of data reduction and analysis methodology. Our Phase II project will assess remaining unknowns for the application of muography to determining the interior structure of SSBs, assess risks for implementation, and provide a roadmap for development of SSB muography beyond the NIAC program. To achieve our objectives, we will focus on four interrelated tasks: Task1) Signal and background characterization: Characterize the production and transmission of muons and secondary particle backgrounds made by cosmic ray showers in SSBs; and near-surface features from radiographic and tomographic data; Task2) Imaging studies: Develop methods to determine the density structure of SSB interiors and near-surface features from radiographic and tomographic data; Task3) Instrument design: Using simulations and bench-top laboratory experiments, investigate specific concepts for the design of compact hodoscopes and components; Task4) Synthesis: Combine the results of the first three tasks to determine the range of applicability of the method, identify the steps needed for maturation of the concept, and explore concepts for a pilot muography mission.

Prettyman, Thomas H.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Recent Developments in Tolerancing Methods for Imaging Spectrometers

We discuss detailed tolerancing methods developed for imaging spectrometers at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology using the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) imaging spectrometer as an illustrative example. We tolerance five metrics simultaneously: along-track response function, cross-track response function, spectral response function, spectral centroid uniformity, and spatial centroid uniformity. A method to calculate tolerancing sensitivities for each metric directly, a method to statistically combine Monte Carlo files from multiple tolerancing runs, and an example summary error budgets that communicate the key and driving tolerances for each metric are discussed. These methods facilitate rapid and semi-automated assessment of the predicted performance of imaging spectrometer systems from design through to assembly and launch life cycle, using metrics that are directly relevant to the extraction of accurate spectroscopic data from these instruments.

Mouroulis, Pantazis↗