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At least 397 records · Page 22

Global energy spectrum of the general oceanic circulation

Abstract Advent of satellite altimetry brought into focus the pervasiveness of mesoscale eddies $${{{{{{{\bf{{{{{{{{\mathcal{O}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}({100})$$ O ( 100 ) km in size, which are the ocean’s analogue of weather systems and are often regarded as the spectral peak of kinetic energy (KE). Yet, understanding of the ocean’s spatial scales has been derived mostly from Fourier analysis in small "representative” regions that cannot capture the vast dynamic range at planetary scales. Here, we use a coarse-graining method to analyze scales much larger than what had been possible before. Spectra spanning over three decades of length-scales reveal the Antarctic Circumpolar Current as the spectral peak of the global extra-tropical circulation, at ≈ 10 4 km, and a previously unobserved power-law scaling over scales larger than 10 3 km. A smaller spectral peak exists at ≈ 300 km associated with mesoscales, which, due to their wider spread in wavenumber space, account for more than 50% of resolved surface KE globally. Seasonal cycles of length-scales exhibit a characteristic lag-time of ≈ 40 days per octave of length-scales such that in both hemispheres, KE at 10 2 km peaks in spring while KE at 10 3 km peaks in late summer. These results provide a new window for understanding the multiscale oceanic circulation within Earth’s climate system, including the largest planetary scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes

Abstract Climate change can alter wetland extent and function, but such impacts are perplexing. Here, changes in wetland characteristics over North America from 25° to 53° North are projected under two climate scenarios using a state-of-the-science Earth system model. At the continental scale, annual wetland area decreases by ~10% (6%-14%) under the high emission scenario, but spatiotemporal changes vary, reaching up to ±50%. As the dominant driver of these changes shifts from precipitation to temperature in the higher emission scenario, wetlands undergo substantial drying during summer season when biotic processes peak. The projected disruptions to wetland seasonality cycles imply further impacts on biodiversity in major wetland habitats of upper Mississippi, Southeast Canada, and the Everglades. Furthermore, wetlands are projected to significantly shrink in cold regions due to the increased infiltration as warmer temperature reduces soil ice. The large dependence of the projections on climate change scenarios underscores the importance of emission mitigation to sustaining wetland ecosystems in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sea ice and atmospheric circulation shape the high-latitude lapse rate feedback

Abstract Arctic amplification of anthropogenic climate change is widely attributed to the sea-ice albedo feedback, with its attendant increase in absorbed solar radiation, and to the effect of the vertical structure of atmospheric warming on Earth’s outgoing longwave radiation. The latter lapse rate feedback is subject, at high latitudes, to a myriad of local and remote influences whose relative contributions remain unquantified. The distinct controls on the high-latitude lapse rate feedback are here partitioned into “upper” and “lower” contributions originating above and below a characteristic climatological isentropic surface that separates the high-latitude lower troposphere from the rest of the atmosphere. This decomposition clarifies how the positive high-latitude lapse rate feedback over polar oceans arises primarily as an atmospheric response to local sea ice loss and is reduced in subpolar latitudes by an increase in poleward atmospheric energy transport. The separation of the locally driven component of the high-latitude lapse rate feedback further reveals how it and the sea-ice albedo feedback together dominate Arctic amplification as a coupled mechanism operating across the seasonal cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using multiple high-resolution datasets to benchmark the energy exascale earth system model (E3SM) for renewable resource assessment

The United States is accelerating its shift toward a renewable energy system. However, renewable resources, which harness energy from the Earth system, are susceptible to both present-day climate variability and future climate change. For example, variations in regional climate can alter renewable energy production patterns and site viability. The use of high-resolution climate model projections can therefore facilitate and may be critical to long-term planning of renewable energy investments. However, climate models must first be validated for renewable resource assessment. This research employs multiple high-spatiotemporal-resolution datasets to assess the capability of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 North American Regionally Refined Model (E3SMv2-NARRM) for predicting multi-year climatological values of solar and wind energy capacity factors in the continental U.S., with a focus on regional and seasonal variability. Present-day E3SMv2-NARRM simulations are compared with reported utility-scale production data obtained from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). In addition, E3SMv2-NARRM data are evaluated against non-climate benchmark models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, including the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit and the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), as well as three wind energy datasets from PLUSWIND. Our analysis indicates that solar capacity factors from E3SM closely match those from the NSRDB dataset. However, both datasets tend to overestimate values by 10% in comparison to EIA data. Furthermore, biases in wind capacity factors within E3SM are notably pronounced in the West Coast regions, where the seasonal cycle diverges from EIA data.

Energy forecasting, Capacity factor, Renewable ene↗

Iowa’s agriculture is losing its Goldilocks climate

The Iowa landscape is endowed with rich, deep, dark soils that have high water-holding capacity. Because most of the state’s land is flat or gently rolling, agriculture can be practiced with large, efficient machinery. Historically, Iowa’s average climate is characterized by a growing season of about five to six months with favorable sunshine and warm temperatures. Its crop-dormant season has low enough temperatures to prevent overwintering of detrimental pests and pathogens. The seasonal cycle of precipitation has a spring–summer maximum and a winter minimum that generally provide a sufficient and timely supply of water to support high crop densities without the need for irrigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal Zinc Storage and a Strategy for Its Use in Buds of Fruit Trees

Bud dormancy allows deciduous perennial plants to rapidly grow following seasonal cold conditions. Although many studies have examined the hormonal regulation of bud growth, the role of nutrients remains unclear. Insufficient accumulation of the key micronutrient zinc (Zn) in dormant buds affects the vegetative and reproductive growth of perennial plants during the subsequent year, requiring the application of Zn fertilizers in orchard management to avoid growth defects in fruit trees. However, the mechanisms of seasonal Zn homeostasis in perennial plants remain poorly understood. Here, we provide new insights into Zn distribution and speciation within reproductive and vegetative buds of apple (Malus domestica) and four other deciduous fruit trees (peach [Amygdalus persica], grape [Vitis vinifera], pistachio [Pistacia vera], and blueberry [Vaccinium spp.]) using microscopic and spectroscopic characterization techniques comprising synchrotron-based x-ray fluorescence and x-ray absorption near-edge-structure analyses. By establishing a link between bud development and Zn distribution, we identified the following important steps of Zn storage and use in deciduous plants: Zn is preferentially deposited in the stem nodes subtending apical and axillary buds; Zn may then be sequestered as Zn-phytate prior to dormancy; in spring, Zn effectively releases for use during budbreak and subsequent meristematic growth. The mechanisms of Zn homeostasis during the seasonal cycles of plant growth and dormancy described here will contribute to improving orchard management, and to selection and breeding of deciduous perennial species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Surrogate Model for Distribution Networks Influenced by Weather

Here, we propose a method for generating reduced representations of time series and for constructing low dimensional surrogate models for time dependent calculations of power and voltage in distribution networks. We employ Fourier polynomials. The surrogate model strategy is aimed at reducing the computational cost of time dependent simulations, albeit, at the expense of fidelity. The reduced representation is achieved by identifying a small and most consequential subset of degrees of freedom. In power and voltage distribution networks dynamics that are heavily influenced by strong cyclic weather events, e.g., the hourly, diurnal and seasonal cycles, the weather/climate time series spectrum exposes these most energetic components. Once the degrees of freedom are identified their amplitudes are optimized using training data. The key challenge in using spectral methods in power network surrogates is addressing the computation of quotients. For this we propose a numerically-stable deconvolution strategy.

Weather events↗

Global cascade of kinetic energy in the ocean and the atmospheric imprint

Here, we present an estimate for the ocean's global scale transfer of kinetic energy (KE), across scales from 10 to 40,000 km. Oceanic KE transfer between gyre scales and mesoscales is induced by the atmosphere’s Hadley, Ferrel, and polar cells, and the intertropical convergence zone induces an intense downscale KE transfer. Upscale transfer peaks at 300 gigawatts across mesoscales of 120 km in size, roughly one-third the energy input by winds into the oceanic general circulation. Nearly three quarters of this “cascade” occurs south of 15°S and penetrates almost the entire water column. The mesoscale cascade has a self-similar seasonal cycle with characteristic lag time of ≈27 days per octave of length scales; transfer across 50 km peaks in spring, while transfer across 500 km peaks in summer. KE of those mesoscales follows the same cycle but peaks ≈40 days after the peak cascade, suggesting that energy transferred across a scale is primarily deposited at a scale four times larger.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AWARE: The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment

The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) performed comprehensive meteorological and aerosol measurements and ground-based atmospheric remote sensing at two Antarctic stations using the most advanced instrumentation available. A suite of cloud research radars, lidars, spectral and broadband radiometers, aerosol chemical and microphysical sampling equipment, and meteorological instrumentation was deployed at McMurdo Station on Ross Island from December 2015 through December 2016. A smaller suite of radiometers and meteorological equipment, including radiosondes optimized for surface energy budget measurement, was deployed on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet between 4 December 2015 and 17 January 2016. AWARE provided Antarctic atmospheric data comparable to several well-instrumented high Arctic sites that have operated for many years and that reveal numerous contrasts with the Arctic in aerosol and cloud microphysical properties. These include persistent differences in liquid cloud occurrence, cloud height, and cloud thickness. Antarctic aerosol properties are also quite different from the Arctic in both seasonal cycle and composition, due to the continent’s isolation from lower latitudes by Southern Ocean storm tracks. Antarctic aerosol number and mass concentrations are not only non-negligible but perhaps play a more important role than previously recognized because of the higher sensitivities of clouds at the very low concentrations caused by the large-scale dynamical isolation. Antarctic aerosol chemical composition, particularly organic components, has implications for local cloud microphysics. The AWARE dataset, fully available online in the ARM Program data archive, offers numerous case studies for unique and rigorous evaluation of mixed-phase cloud parameterization in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Benchmarking Simulated Precipitation in Earth System Models

Earth system models (ESMs) bridge observationally based and theoretical understanding of the Earth system. They are among the most often used tools to study a variety of questions related to variability and changes in Earth’s climate. For many applications, ESMs must realistically simulate observed large-scale precipitation patterns and seasonal cycles that have a multitude of societal and national security implications. Despite steady improvement in the simulation of precipitation, model errors in many aspects of precipitation characteristics limit the use of ESMs both in understanding Earth system variability and change and for decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Insights into ENSO Diversity from an Intermediate Coupled Model. Part II: Role of Nonlinear Dynamics and Stochastic Forcing

Abstract In this study, we investigate how a single leading linear El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode, as studied in Part I, leads to the irregular coexistence of central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, a phenomenon known as ENSO spatiotemporal diversity. This diversity is fundamentally generated by deterministic nonlinear pathways to chaos via the period-doubling route and, more prevailingly, the subharmonic resonance route with the presence of a seasonally varying basic state. When residing in the weakly nonlinear regime, the coupled system sustains a weak periodic oscillation with a mixed CP/EP pattern as captured by the linear ENSO mode. With a stronger nonlinearity effect, the ENSO behavior experiences a period-doubling bifurcation. The single ENSO orbit splits into coexisting CP-like and EP-like ENSO orbits. A sequence of period-doubling bifurcation results in an aperiodic oscillation featuring irregular CP and EP ENSO occurrences. The overlapping of subharmonic resonances between ENSO and the seasonal cycle allows this ENSO irregularity and diversity to be more readily excited. In the strongly nonlinear regime, the coupled system is dominated by regular EP ENSO. The deterministic ENSO spatiotemporal diversity is thus confined to a relatively narrow range corresponding to a moderately unstable ENSO mode. Stochastic forcing broadens this range and allows ENSO diversity to occur when the ENSO mode is weakly subcritical. A close relationship among a weakened mean zonal temperature gradient, stronger ENSO activity, and more (fewer) occurrences of EP (CP) ENSO is noted, indicating that ENSO–mean state interaction may yield ENSO regime modulations on the multidecadal time scale.

Geng, Licheng↗

Characterizing Spatial and Temporal Variability of California’s Coastal Upwelling Using a Satellite-Derived CUTI Index

Ocean upwelling off California is a wind-driven coastal process with complex interactions between spatial wind patterns and sea surface temperatures. Large-scale spatial and temporal upwelling characterizations are traditionally based on numerical models, while quantifying upwelling with direct observations is not straightforward. To complement model-based upwelling characterizations, here we use satellite estimates of winds, sea surface temperatures, and ocean currents along the California coast to calculate the coastal upwelling transport index (CUTI), originally calculated from a numerical ocean model. The CUTI framework accounts for both Ekman and geostrophic offshore-directed ocean transport, the latter of which is often neglected in satellite-based upwelling assessments. The approach yields the CUTI over a 30-yr period at a daily temporal and 0.25° spatial resolution to analyze upwelling patterns, with focus on potential Morro Bay and Humboldt wind energy areas. Morro Bay (CUTI median of 0.63 m 2 s −1 ) exhibits stronger, more consistent upwelling throughout the year, whereas Humboldt (CUTI median of 0.45 m 2 s −1 ) exhibits a pronounced seasonal cycle with strongest upwelling in the summer and occasional downwelling in winter. The cluster analysis of 1993–2022 satellite maps of CUTI identifies four characteristic spatial upwelling patterns along the coast, corresponding to distinct spatial distributions of sea surface temperature anomalies, Ekman transport, and geostrophic ocean water transport. This dataset provides an observation-based foundation for characterizing natural coastal upwelling off the California coast, showing good agreement with the original model CUTI while being based on satellite data and offering increased spatial resolution.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Model estimates of dissolved organic carbon, runoff, snowmelt, and snow water equivalent from 1981-2010 across the western Arctic

This dataset contains estimates of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) yield (mg C m-2), runoff (mm day-1), snow water equivalent (SWE, mm day-1), and snowmelt (mm day-1) from a simulation of the Permafrost Water Balance Model (PWBM v4). The simulation effectively quantifies snowpack accumulation and melt, runoff, and DOC leaching, and broadly capture the seasonal cycle in DOC concentration and mass loadings. Daily air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) were used for meteorological forcings. The model outputs are organized by grid and day of the month in gzipped ASCII text files contained within each archived ZIP file. No special software is required to work with these data. The basin and domain information files are also ASCII text. The gridded estimates are most useful for analyses of the spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial hydrology and leachate DOC concentrations and loadings across parts of the western Arctic. A manuscript describing the data and associated analysis has been accepted for publication in Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences (Rawlins et al., 2021).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Secondary Aerosol Formation in an Arctic Oil Field (Campaign Report)

Atmospheric aerosols contribute significantly to arctic warming, yet significant differences in aerosol concentration levels and seasonal cycles often exist between models and observations. Recent studies of cloud properties across the North Slope of Alaska show the significant, regional influence of oil field emissions. Development across the Arctic motivates the need to characterize these oilfield emissions to further predict their roles in changing future arctic climate. Our previous August-September 2016 Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility field campaign resulted in improved understanding of atmospheric particles emitted within the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) oil fields, as well as the aging of sea spray aerosol. Following Polar Sunrise during arctic spring, chlorine chemistry is active, and we hypothesize that oxidation of oil field hydrocarbons by chlorine atoms (Cl) generates oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) leading to springtime arctic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Marine Shallow Cloud Adjustments to the Presence of Shortwave-Absorbing Aerosols: Advancing Understanding Through a Combined Analysis of Lasic Datasets and Process Modeling (Final Report)

This is a final report for this award, whose purpose was to support the analysis of data emanating from the LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interaction with Clouds) campaign. (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds) is a strategy to improve our understanding of aged carbonaceous aerosol, its seasonal evolution, and the mechanisms by which clouds adjust to the presence of the aerosol. The observational strategy centers on deploying the AMF1 cloud, aerosol, and atmospheric profiling instrumentation to Ascension Island, located within the trade-wind shallow cumulus regime (14.50W, 80S) 3000 km offshore of continental Africa. The location is within the latitude zone of the maximum outflow of aerosol, with the deepening boundary layer known to entrain free-tropospheric smoke. The primary activities for LASIC are: 1) to improve current knowledge on aged biomass burning aerosol and its radiative properties as a function of the seasonal cycle; 2) to use surface-based remote sensing to sensitively interrogate the atmosphere for the relative vertical location of aerosol and clouds; 3) to improve our understanding of the cloud adjustments to the presence of shortwave-absorbing aerosol within the vertical column, both through aerosol-radiation and through aerosol-cloud interactions; 4) to aid low cloud parameterization efforts for climate models. This award serves to further these activities and includes a sub-award to Dr. Pablo Saide at UCLA for activities 3) and 4).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

EPCAPE Radar b1 Data Processing: Corrections, Calibrations, and Processing Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility recently deployed its First ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1) to La Jolla, California as part of the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) campaign. Some of the goals behind EPCAPE were to characterize the diurnal and seasonal cycles of stratocumulus clouds and to investigate the cloud-aerosol-radiation interactions and feedbacks in the area. The deployment of the AMF1 for a full year from 15 February 2023 to 14 February 2024 aided in addressing these scientific questions. While AMF1 collected data year-round, enhanced measurements were taken during two intensive operational periods (IOPs). The first IOP occurred from April to June and focused on the chemistry of low clouds (EPCAPE_Chem), while the second IOP occurred from July to September and was focused on the radiation of high clouds (EPCAPE_Radiation). Several cloud radars were deployed with AMF1 to collect valuable data on cloud properties that will help users address key science objectives. As in past ARM campaigns, a1-level radar data is extensively analyzed and calibration techniques are performed to generate b1-level data (Matthews et al. 2023, Feng et al. 2024). Radar data at the b1-level are of the highest quality and thus can be used to examine scientific questions. The status of the a1-level data and the a1-to-b1 process for the EPCAPE radars is subsequently detailed in this document.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding Aitken Mode Aerosol Variability over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica: Insights from Cloud Condensation Nuclei Data

Aitken mode aerosol particles play an important role influencing cloud properties and sustenance, acting as a reservoir of potential cloud condensation nuclei against precipitation scavenging. However, there is limited data on Aitken mode aerosols. In this study, we develop a method to estimate Aitken mode aerosol concentrations and size distribution using cloud condensation nuclei measurements (CCN) and κ-Köhler theory. The performance of this method is evaluated using scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) data from recent field campaigns to demonstrate its skills and applicability. The method reasonably estimates Aitken- and accumulation-mode aerosol concentrations, achieving correlations of 0.7–0.9 with only modest biases (mean fractional bias within ±23% for Aitken mode and ±34% for accumulation-mode). This method is further applied to measurements collected over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica in recent years from multiple platforms, including ground sites, aircraft, and ships, to derive Aitken and accumulation-mode aerosol concentrations. Using the derived data, we examine the seasonal cycle, latitudinal variations, and vertical distribution of aerosols. Aitken mode aerosol concentrations are elevated over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica during the austral summer similar to the accumulation mode. In the austral summer, the free troposphere has more Aitken mode aerosols and fewer accumulation mode aerosols than the boundary layer, and thus likely serves as an important source of cloud-forming aerosol while also diluting the accumulation mode.

Kang, Litai [University of Washington] (ORCID:0000↗

Ten Years of VIIRS Land Surface Temperature Product Validation

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Land Surface Temperature (LST) has been operationally produced for a decade since the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) launched in October 2011. A comprehensive evaluation of its accuracy and precision will be helpful for product users in climate studies and atmospheric models. In this study, the VIIRS LST is validated with ground observations from multiple high-quality radiation networks, including six stations from the Surface Radiation budget (SURFRAD) network, two stations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), and 13 stations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) network, to evaluate its performance over various land-cover types. The VNP21A1 LST was validated against the same ground observations as a reference. The results yield a close agreement between the SNPP VIIRS LST and ground LSTs with a bias of -0.4 K and a RMSE of 1.96 K over six SURFRAD sites; a bias of -0.2 K and a RMSE of 1.93 K over two BSRN sites; and a bias of -0.1 K and a RMSE of 1.7 K over the 13 ARM sites. The time series of the LST errors over individual sites indicate seasonal cycles. The data anomaly over the BSRN site in Cabauw and the SURFRAD site in Desert Rock is revealed and discussed in this study. In addition, a method using Landsat-8 data is applied to quantify the heterogeneity level of each ground station and the results provide promising insights. The validation results demonstrate the maturity of the JPSS VIIRS LST products and their readiness for various application studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗