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An overview of the Energy Modeling Forum 33rd study: Assessing large-scale global bioenergy deployment for managing climate change

Previous studies have projected a significant role for bioenergy in decarbonizing the global economy and helping realize international climate goals such as limiting global average warming to 2°C or 1.5°C. However, with significant variability in bioenergy results and significant concerns about potential environmental and social implications, greater transparency and dedicated assessment of the underlying modeling and results and more detailed understanding of the potential role of bioenergy are needed. Stanford University’s Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) initiated a 33rd study (EMF-33) to explore the viability of large-scale bioenergy as part of a comprehensive climate management strategy. This special issue presents the papers of the EMF-33 study—a multi-year inter-model comparison project designed to understand and assess global, long-run, biomass supply and bioenergy deployment potentials and related uncertainties. Using a novel scenario design with independent biomass supply and bioenergy demand protocols, EMF-33 separately elucidates and explores the modeling of biomass feedstock supplies and bioenergy technologies and their deployment—revealing, comparing, and assessing the modeling that is suggesting that bioenergy could be a key climate containment strategy. This introduction provides an overview of the EMF-33 study design and the overview, thematic, and individual modeling team papers and types of insights that make up this special issue. By providing enhanced transparency and new detailed insights, we hope to inform policy dialogue about the potential role of bioenergy and facilitate new research.

Rose, Steven K.↗

A Preliminary Study of Ice-Accretion Scaling for SLD Conditions

Proposed changes to aircraft icing certification rules are being considered by European, Canadian, and American regulatory agencies to include operation in super-cooled large droplet conditions (SLD). This paper reports results of an experimental study in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) to evaluate how well scaling methods developed for Appendix C conditions might apply to SLD conditions. Until now, scaling studies have been confined to the FAA FAR-25 Appendix C envelope of atmospheric cloud conditions. Tests were made in which it was attempted to scale to a droplet MVD of 50 microns from clouds having droplet MVDs of 175, 120, 100, and 70 microns. Scaling was based on the Ruff method with scale velocities found either by maintaining constant Weber number or by using the average of the velocities obtained by maintaining constant Weber number and constant Reynolds number. Models were unswept NACA 0012 wing sections. The reference model had a chord of 91.4 cm. Scale models had chords of 91.4, 80.0, and 53.3 cm. Tests were conducted with reference airspeeds of 100 and 150 kt (52 and 77 m/s) and with freezing fractions of 1.0, 0.6, and 0.3. It was demonstrated that the scaled 50-micron cloud simulated well the non-dimensional ice shapes accreted in clouds with MVD's of 120 microns or less.

Anderson, David N.↗

Comparisons of Instantaneous TRMM Ground Validation and Satellite Rain Rate Estimates at Different Spatial Scales

This study provides a comprehensive inter-comparison of instantaneous rain rates observed by the two rain sensors aboard the TRMM satellite with ground data from two regional sites established for long-term ground validation: Kwajalein Atoll and Melbourne, Florida. The satellite rain algorithms utilize remote observations of precipitation collected by the TRMM microwave imager (TMI) and the Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the TRMM satellite. Three standard Level I1 rain products are generated from operational applications of the TMI, PR and Combined (COM) rain algorithms using rain information collected from the TMI and the PR along the orbital track of the TRMM satellite. In the first part of the study, 0.25 x 0.25 instantaneous rain rates obtained from the TRMM 3668 product were analyzed and compared to instantaneous GV rain rates gridded at a scale of 0.5deg x 0.5. In the second part of the study, TMI, PR, COM and GV rain rates were spatio-temporally matched and averaged at the scale of TMI footprint (- 150 sq km). This study covered a six-year period 1999-2004 and consisted of over 50,000 footprints for each GV site. In the first analysis our results showed that all of the respective rain rate estimates agree well, with some exceptions. The more salient differences were associated with heavy rain events in which one or more of the algorithms failed to properly retrieve these extreme events. Also, it appears that there is a preferred mode of precipitation for TMI rain rates at or near 2 mm/hr over the ocean. This mode was noted over ocean areas of Kwajalein and Melbourne and has been observed in TRMM tropical-global ocean areas as well.

Wolff, David B.↗

Feedback systems and multiple time-scales

A study is conducted of feedback design for systems with multiple time-scale structure uncovering an intrinsic time-scale structure for a state feedback system with full state output. From this a multiple time-scale asymptotic observer and a system with state feedback via a two time-scale asymptotic observer is considered. Finally more general results for a restricted class of systems are obtained.

Silva-Madriz, R.↗

A Parametric Study of Fine-scale Turbulence Mixing Noise

The present paper is a study of aerodynamic noise spectra from model functions that describe the source. The study is motivated by the need to improve the spectral shape of the MGBK jet noise prediction methodology at high frequency. The predicted spectral shape usually appears less broadband than measurements and faster decaying at high frequency. Theoretical representation of the source is based on Lilley's equation. Numerical simulations of high-speed subsonic jets as well as some recent turbulence measurements reveal a number of interesting statistical properties of turbulence correlation functions that may have a bearing on radiated noise. These studies indicate that an exponential spatial function may be a more appropriate representation of a two-point correlation compared to its Gaussian counterpart. The effect of source non-compactness on spectral shape is discussed. It is shown that source non-compactness could well be the differentiating factor between the Gaussian and exponential model functions. In particular, the fall-off of the noise spectra at high frequency is studied and it is shown that a non-compact source with an exponential model function results in a broader spectrum and better agreement with data. An alternate source model that represents the source as a covariance of the convective derivative of fine-scale turbulence kinetic energy is also examined.

Khavaran, Abbas↗

Study of large-scale mixing in developing wakes behind streamlined bodies

Heat-tagging and conditional sampling techniques were used to study the large scale mixing process in the developing wake behind a streamlined body. The results were used to understand the manner in which the large eddy length scale evolves from a value appropriate to a boundary layer to that appropriate to the asymptotic far-wake.

Ramaprian, B. R.↗

Lagrangian conditional statistics and flow topology in edge plasma turbulence

Lagrangian statistics and particle transport in edge plasma turbulence are investigated using the Hasegawa–Wakatani model and its modified version. The latter shows the emergence of pronounced zonal flows. Different values of the adiabaticity parameter are considered. The main goal is to characterize the role of coherent structures, i.e., vortices and zonal flows, and their impact on the Lagrangian statistics of particles. Computationally intensive long time simulations following ensembles of test particles over hundreds of eddy turnover times are considered in statistically stationary turbulent flows. The flow topology is characterized using the Lagrangian Okubo–Weiss criterion in order to split the flow into topologically different domains. In elliptic and hyperbolic regions, the probability density functions (PDFs) of the residence time have self-similar algebraic decaying tails. However, in the intermediate regions, the PDFs exhibit exponentially decaying tails. Topologically conditioned PDFs of the Lagrangian velocity, and acceleration and density fluctuations are likewise computed. The differences between the classical Hasegawa–Wakatani system and its modified version are assessed, and the role of zonal flows is highlighted. Here, the density flux spectrum, which characterizes the contributions of different length scales, is studied, and its inertial scaling is found to be in agreement with predictions based on dimensional arguments. Analyzing the angular change of particle tracers at different time scales, corresponding to coarse grained curvature, completes the study, and these multiscale geometric statistics quantify the directional properties of the particle motion in different flow regimes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Developing Scaling Relationships for Molecular Electrocatalysis through Studies of Fe-Porphyrin-Catalyzed O 2 Reduction

The oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) is a multiproton/multielectron transformation in which dioxygen (O 2 ) is reduced to water or hydrogen peroxide and serves as the cathode reaction in most fuel cells. The ORR (O 2 + 4e – + 4H + → 2H 2 O) involves up to nine substrates and thus requires navigating a complicated reaction landscape, typically with several high-energy intermediates. Many catalysts can perform this reaction, though few operate with fast rates and at low overpotentials (close to the thermodynamic potential). Attempts to optimize these parameters, both in homogeneous and heterogeneous electrocatalytic systems, have focused on modifying catalyst design and understanding kinetic/thermodynamic relationships between catalytic intermediates. One such method for analyzing and predicting catalyst reactivity and efficiency has been the development of “molecular scaling relationships”. In this work, we share our experience deriving and utilizing molecular scaling relationships for soluble, iron-porphyrin-catalyzed O 2 reduction in organic solvents. These relationships correlate turnover frequencies (TOF max ) and effective overpotentials (η eff ), properties uniquely defined for homogeneous catalysts. Following a general introduction of scaling relationships for both homogeneous and heterogeneous electrocatalysis, we describe the components of such scaling relationships: (i) the overall thermochemistry of the reaction and (ii) the rate and rate law of the catalyzed reaction. We then show how connecting these thermodynamic and kinetic parameters reveals multiple molecular scaling relationships for iron-porphyrin-catalyzed O 2 reduction. For example, the log(TOF max ) responds steeply to changes in ηeff that result from different catalyst reduction potentials (18.5 decades in TOF max /V in η eff ) but much less dramatically to changes in η eff that arise from varying the pKa of the acid buffer (5.1 decades in TOF max /V in η eff ). Thus, a single scaling relationship is not always sufficient for describing molecular electrocatalysis. This is particularly evident when the catalyst identity and reaction conditions are coupled. Using these multiple scaling relationships, we demonstrate that the metrics of turnover frequency and effective overpotential can be predictably tuned to achieve faster rates at lowered overpotentials. This Account uses a collection of related stories describing our research on soluble iron-porphyrin-catalyzed ORR to show how molecular scaling relationships can be derived and used for any electrocatalytic reaction. Such scaling relationships are powerful tools that connect the thermochemistry, mechanism, and rate law for a catalytic system. We hope that this collection shows the utility and simplicity of the molecular scaling approach for understanding catalysis, for enabling direct comparisons between catalyst systems, and for optimizing catalytic processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DESI mock challenge: constructing DESI galaxy catalogues based on FastPM simulations

Together with larger spectroscopic surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), the precision of large-scale structure studies and thus the constraints on the cosmological parameters are rapidly improving. Therefore, one must build realistic simulations and robust covariance matrices. We build galaxy catalogues by applying a halo occupation distribution (HOD) model upon the FastPM simulations, such that the resulting galaxy clustering reproduces high-resolution N-body simulations. While the resolution and halo finder are different from the reference simulations, we reproduce the reference galaxy two-point clustering measurements – monopole and quadrupole – to a precision required by the DESI Year 1 emission line galaxy sample down to non-linear scales, i.e. $k\lt 0.5\, h\, \mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ or $s\gt 10\, \mathrm{Mpc}\, h^{-1}$. Furthermore, we compute covariance matrices based on the resulting FastPM galaxy clustering – monopole and quadrupole. We study for the first time the effect of fitting on Fourier conjugate (e.g. power spectrum) on the covariance matrix of the Fourier counterpart (e.g. correlation function). We estimate the uncertainties of the two parameters of a simple clustering model and observe a maximum variation of 20 per cent for the different covariance matrices. Nevertheless, for most studied scales the scatter is between 2 and 10 per cent. Consequently, using the current pipeline we can precisely reproduce the clustering of N-body simulations and the resulting covariance matrices provide robust uncertainty estimations against HOD fitting scenarios. We expect our methodology will be useful for the coming DESI data analyses and their extension for other studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cost-optimized energy storage operation for a grid-connected solar PV system at community and individual scales

This study provides a comparative analysis of grid-connected PV-integrated battery storage at individual and community scales. The paper addresses the challenge of managing energy demand-generation mismatch by using a battery energy storage optimization algorithm, which minimizes operational costs while accounting for battery degradation. Also, this work introduces a broader evaluation basis that includes seasonal variability, grid exchange smoothness, and scalability across different battery capacities. Results show that community-scale storage more effectively dampens grid exchange power fluctuations and reduces system costs, particularly with moderate price differences between electricity buying and selling prices and low battery capacities. The paper also analyzes the impacts of static control versus cost-optimized battery system management. Here, it is shown that the gap in system costs between the cost-optimized and static control scenarios widens as the price difference increases.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Full-Scale Wind-Tunnel Studies of F/A-18 Tail Buffet

Tail buffet studies were conducted on a full-scale, production F/A-18 fighter aircraft in the 80 by 120 ft Wind Tunnel at NASA Ames Research Center. The F/A-18 was tested over an angle-of-attack range of 18-50 deg, and at wind speeds of up to 168 ft/s, corresponding to a Reynolds number of 12.3x10(exp 6) based on mean aerodynamic chord and a Mach number of 0.15. The port, vertical tail fin was instrumented and the aircraft was equipped with a removable leading-edge extension (LEX) fence. Time-averaged, power-spectral analysis results are presented for the tail fin bending moment derived from the integrated pressure field, for the zero side-slip condition, both with and without the LEX fence. The LEX fence significantly reduces the magnitude of the rms pressures and bending moments. Scaling issues are addressed by comparing full-scale results for pressures at the 60%-span and 45%-chord location with small-scale, F/A-18 tail-buffet data. The comparison shows that the tail buffet frequency scales very well with length and velocity. Root-mean-square pressures and power spectra do not scale as well. The LEX fence is shown to reduce tail buffet loads at all model scales.

Meyn, Larry A.↗

Observational and Model Studies of Large-Scale Mixing Processes in the Stratosphere

The following is the final technical report for grant NAGW-3442, 'Observational and Model Studies of Large-Scale Mixing Processes in the Stratosphere'. Research efforts in the first year concentrated on transport and mixing processes in the polar vortices. Three papers on mixing in the Antarctic were published. The first was a numerical modeling study of wavebreaking and mixing and their relationship to the period of observed stratospheric waves (Bowman). The second paper presented evidence from TOMS for wavebreaking in the Antarctic (Bowman and Mangus 1993). The third paper used Lagrangian trajectory calculations from analyzed winds to show that there is very little transport into the Antarctic polar vortex prior to the vortex breakdown (Bowman). Mixing is significantly greater at lower levels. This research helped to confirm theoretical arguments for vortex isolation and data from the Antarctic field experiments that were interpreted as indicating isolation. A Ph.D. student, Steve Dahlberg, used the trajectory approach to investigate mixing and transport in the Arctic. While the Arctic vortex is much more disturbed than the Antarctic, there still appears to be relatively little transport across the vortex boundary at 450 K prior to the vortex breakdown. The primary reason for the absence of an ozone hole in the Arctic is the earlier warming and breakdown of the vortex compared to the Antarctic, not replenishment of ozone by greater transport. Two papers describing these results have appeared (Dahlberg and Bowman; Dahlberg and Bowman). Steve Dahlberg completed his Ph.D. thesis (Dahlberg and Bowman) and is now teaching in the Physics Department at Concordia College. We also prepared an analysis of the QBO in SBUV ozone data (Hollandsworth et al.). A numerical study in collaboration with Dr. Ping Chen investigated mixing by barotropic instability, which is the probable origin of the 4-day wave in the upper stratosphere (Bowman and Chen). The important result from this paper is that even in the presence of growing, unstable waves, the mixing barriers around

Bowman, Kenneth P.↗

Numerical study of the small scale structures in Boussinesq convection

Two-dimensional Boussinesq convection is studied numerically using two different methods: a filtered pseudospectral method and a high order accurate Essentially Nonoscillatory (ENO) scheme. The issue whether finite time singularity occurs for initially smooth flows is investigated. The numerical results suggest that the collapse of the bubble cap is unlikely to occur in resolved calculations. The strain rate corresponding to the intensification of the density gradient across the front saturates at the bubble cap. We also found that the cascade of energy to small scales is dominated by the formulation of thin and sharp fronts across which density jumps.

Weinan, E.↗

Acoustic Studies of the Large Scale Ocean Circulation

Detailed knowledge of ocean circulation and its transport properties is prerequisite to an understanding of the earth's climate and of important biological and chemical cycles. Results from two recent experiments, THETIS-2 in the Western Mediterranean and ATOC in the North Pacific, illustrate the use of ocean acoustic tomography for studies of the large scale circulation. The attraction of acoustic tomography is its ability to sample and average the large-scale oceanic thermal structure, synoptically, along several sections, and at regular intervals. In both studies, the acoustic data are compared to, and then combined with, general circulation models, meteorological analyses, satellite altimetry, and direct measurements from ships. Both studies provide complete regional descriptions of the time-evolving, three-dimensional, large scale circulation, albeit with large uncertainties. The studies raise serious issues about existing ocean observing capability and provide guidelines for future efforts.

Menemenlis, Dimitris↗

Landing impact studies of a 0.3-scale model air cushion landing system for a Navy fighter airplane

An experimental study was conducted in order to determine the landing-impact behavior of a 0.3-scale, dynamically (but not physically) similar model of a high-density Navy fighter equipped with an air cushion landing system. The model was tested over a range of landing contact attitudes at high forward speeds and sink rates on a specialized test fixture at the Langley aircraft landing loads and traction facility. The investigation indicated that vertical acceleration at landing impact was highly dependent on the pitch angle at ground contact, the higher acceleration of approximately 5g occurring near zero body-pitch attitude. A limited number of low-speed taxi tests were made in order to determine model stability characteristics. The model was found to have good pitch-damping characteristics but stability in roll was marginal.

Leland, T. J. W.↗

Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers

Fire is a powerful ecological and evolutionary force that regulates organismal traits, population sizes, species interactions, community composition, carbon and nutrient cycling and ecosystem function. It also presents a rapidly growing societal challenge, due to both increasingly destructive wildfires and fire exclusion in fire–dependent ecosystems. As an ecological process, fire integrates complex feedbacks among biological, social and geophysical processes, requiring coordination across several fields and scales of study. Here, we describe the diversity of ways in which fire operates as a fundamental ecological and evolutionary process on Earth. We explore research priorities in six categories of fire ecology: (a) characteristics of fire regimes, (b) changing fire regimes, (c) fire effects on above–ground ecology, (d) fire effects on below–ground ecology, (e) fire behaviour and (f) fire ecology modelling. We identify three emergent themes: the need to study fire across temporal scales, to assess the mechanisms underlying a variety of ecological feedbacks involving fire and to improve representation of fire in a range of modelling contexts. As fire regimes and our relationships with fire continue to change, prioritizing these research areas will facilitate understanding of the ecological causes and consequences of future fires and rethinking fire management alternatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

components for the MuMMI software release

The Department of Energy and the National Cancer Institute have developed new software for conducting multi-scale simulations of complex systems. This software, called the Multiscale Machine-Learned Modeling Infrastructure (MuMMI), couples simulations on three spatial scales to study slow, large-scale reorganizations of biomolecular systems with the speed of continuum and coarse-grained models while revealing selected interactions at full atomic precision. In these simulations, coarse-to-fine model conversions are used to spawn relevant fine-scale simulations along chosen order parameters, and fine-to-coarse feedback is used to iteratively improve the accuracy and multi-scale consistency of coarse-scale and continuum simulations. The complete MuMMI framework will be reviewed and released as open-source software by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. This review covers a subset of the MuMMI components that were developed exclusively at the Los Alamos National Laboratory.

Neale, Christopher↗

Spatial Fluctuations in the Diffuse Cosmic X-Ray Background

The bright, essentially isotropic, X-ray sky flux above 2 keV yields information on the universe at large distances. However, a definitive understanding of the origin of the flux is lacking. Some fraction of the total flux is contributed by active galactic nuclei and clusters of galaxies, but less than one percent of the total is contributed by the or approximately 3 keV band resolved sources, which is the band where the sky flux is directly observed. Parametric models of AGN (quasar) luminosity function evolution are examined. Most constraints are by the total sky flux. The acceptability of particular models hinges on assumptions currently not directly testable. The comparison with the Einstein Observatory 1 to keV low flux source counts is hampered by spectral uncertainties. A tentative measurement of a large scale dipole anisotropy is consistent with the velocity and direction derived from the dipole in the microwave background. The impact of the X-ray anisotropy limits for other scales on studies of large-scale structure in the universe is sketched. Models of the origins of the X-ray sky flux are reviewed, and future observational programs outlined.

Shafer, R. A.↗