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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Observations of Solar Wind-Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling and Its Impact on Equatorial Ionospheric Electrodynamics During the March and April 2023 Geomagnetic Storms

The low-latitude ionosphere is effectively shielded from the high latitude convection electric field during geomagnetic quiet times because region-2 field-aligned currents associated with the partial ring current act to oppose the convection electric field associated with region-1 field-aligned currents. However, the low-latitude ionosphere can be directly coupled to the enhanced magnetospheric electric field through prompt penetration of convection electric field during periods of strong solar wind-magnetosphere interaction. The mechanisms that lead to the generation of prompt penetration electric field during enhanced solar wind-magnetosphereionosphere coupling are complex and not fully understood. We study the evolution of field-aligned currents and the equatorial electrojet during the March and April 2023 geomagnetic storm to understand the processes involving solar wind disturbances interacting with the magnetosphere and coupling into the polar ionosphere, and how the low-latitude ionosphere responded to the enhanced magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. We will present the observations in the solar windmagnetosphere-ionosphere system, in particular, field-aligned currents at high latitude ionosphere by Swarm and the equatorial electrojet by Swarm and ground-based magnetometers.

Guan Le↗

NASA NTRS2008

Collection of Infrasonic Sound From Sources of Military Importance

Extreme Endeavors is collaborating with NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) in the development, testing and analysis of infrasonic detection system under a Space Act Agreement. Acoustic studies of atmospheric events like convective storms, shear-induced turbulence, acoustic gravity waves, microbursts, hurricanes, and clear air turbulence (CAT) over the past thirty years have established that these events are strong emitters of infrasound. Recently NASA Langley Research Center has designed and developed a portable infrasonic detection system which can be used to make useful infrasound measurements at locations where it was not possible previously, such as a mountain crag, inside a cave or on the battlefield. The system comprises an electret condenser microphone, having a 3-inch membrane diameter, and a small, compact windscreen. Extreme Endeavors will present the findings from field testing using this portable infrasonic detection system. Field testing of the infrasonic detection system was partly funded by Greer Industries and support provided by the West Virginia Division of Natural Resources. The findings from this work illustrate the ability to detect structure and other information about the contents inside the caves. The presentation will describe methodology for utilizing infrasonic to locate and portray underground facilities.

Masterman, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2007

Midweek Increase in U.S. Summer Rain and Storm Heights, Suggests Air Pollution Invigorates Rainstorms

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data show a significant midweek increase in summertime rainfall over the southeast U.S., due to afternoon intensification. TRMM radar data show a significant midweek increase in rain area and in the heights reached by afternoon storms. Weekly variations in model-reanalysis wind patterns over the region and in rain-gauge data are consistent with the satellite data. A midweek decrease of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic is also seen. EPA measurements of particulate concentrations show a midweek peak over much of the U.S. These observations are consistent with the theory that anthropogenic air pollution suppresses cloud-drop coalescence and early rainout during the growth of thunderstorms over land, allowing more water to be carried above the 0 C isotherm, where freezing yields additional latent heat, invigorating the storms--most dramatically evidenced by the shift in the midweek distribution of afternoon-storm heights--and producing large ice hydrometeors. The enhanced convection induces regional convergence, uplifting and an overall increase of rainfall. Compensating downward air motion suppresses convection over the adjacent ocean areas. Pre-TRMM-era data suggest that the weekly cycle only became strong enough to be detectable beginning in the 1980's. Rain-gauge data also suggest that a weekly cycle may have been detectable in the 1940's, but with peak rainfall on Sunday or Monday, possibly explained by the difference in composition of aerosol pollution at that time. This "weekend effect" may thus offer climate researchers an opportunity to study the regional climate-scale impact of aerosols on storm development and monsoon-like circulation.

Bell, Thomas L.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Numerical Study of Hurricane Erin (2001): Model Verification and Storm Evolution - Part 1

The Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model MM5 is used to simulate Hurricane Erin (2001) at high resolution (4-km spacing) from its early development as a tropical depression on 7 September 2001, through a period of rapid intensification into a strong hurricane (8-9 September), and finally into a stage during which it maintains its intensity on 10 September. These three stages of development, intensification, and maintenance in the simulation are in good agreement with the observed evolution of Erin. The simulation shows that during the development and early portions of the intensification stages, intensification is favored because the environmental wind shear is weak and the system moves over a warm tongue of water. As Erin intensifies, the wind'shear gradually increases with the approach of an upper-level trough and strengthening of a low-level high pressure system. By 10 September, the wind shear peaks and begins to decrease, the storm moves over slightly cooler waters, and the intensification ends. Important structural changes occur at this time as the outer precipitation shift from the northeastern and eastern sides to the western side of the eye and precipitation begins to surround the entire eye to initiate the development of a secondary wind maximum and an outer eyewall. The simulation is used to investigate the role of vertical wind shear in the changes of the precipitation structure that took place between 9-10 September by examining the effects of both storm-relative flow changes and changes in the shear-induced tilt. Qualitative agreement is found between the divergence pattern and advection of vorticity by the relative flow with convergence (divergence) generally associated with asymmetric inflow (outflow) in the eyewall region. The shift in the outer precipitation is consistent with a shift in the low-level relative inflow from the northeastern to the northwestern side of the storm. The changes in the relative flow are associated with changes in the winds as the hurricane moves relative to the upper tough and the low-level high pressure system. Examination of the shear-induced tilt of the vortex shows that the change in the tilt direction is greater than that of the shear direction as the tilt shifts from a northerly orientation to northwesterly. Consistent with theory for adiabatic vortices, the maximum low-level convergence and upper-level divergence (and the maximum upward motion) occurs in the direction of tilt. Consequently, both mechanisms may play roles in the changes in the precipitation pattern.

Wu, Liquang↗

NASA NTRS1979

Viking Orbiter imaging observations of dust in the Martian atmosphere

More than 20 local Martian dust clouds and two global dust storms were observed with the Viking Orbiter camera. Sixteen of the local clouds were imaged in two colors or were observed with other instruments confirming their identification as dust clouds. These Viking results are compared with earth-based observations of Martian dust storms and with Mariner 9 data. Most of the dust activity seen by Viking occurred during southern hemisphere spring and early summer, when Mars was near perihelion and insolation was near maximum. About half the local clouds occurred near the edge of the southern polar cap, where winds are presumably enhanced by a strong regional temperature gradient. The other half occurred mainly in the southern hemisphere near regions where circulation models incorporating topography predict positive vertical velocities. Although dust clouds observed from earth show a similar partial correlation with models, some ambiguity exists concerning interpretation of regions near Hellespontus that have spawned the most spectacular Martian dust storms on record.

Briggs, G. A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Strong temporal variation in treefall and branchfall rates in a tropical forest is related to extreme rainfall: results from 5 years of monthly drone data for a 50 ha plot

Abstract. A mechanistic understanding of how tropical-tree mortality responds to climate variation is urgently needed to predict how tropical-forest carbon pools will respond to anthropogenic global change, which is altering the frequency and intensity of storms, droughts, and other climate extremes in tropical forests. We used 5 years of approximately monthly drone-acquired RGB (red–green–blue) imagery for 50 ha of mature tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to quantify spatial structure; temporal variation; and climate correlates of canopy disturbances, i.e., sudden and major drops in canopy height due to treefalls, branchfalls, or the collapse of standing dead trees. Canopy disturbance rates varied strongly over time and were higher in the wet season, even though wind speeds were lower in the wet season. The strongest correlate of monthly variation in canopy disturbance rates was the frequency of extreme rainfall events. The size distribution of canopy disturbances was best fit by a Weibull function and was close to a power function for sizes above 25 m2. Treefalls accounted for 74 % of the total area and 52 % of the total number of canopy disturbances in treefalls and branchfalls combined. We hypothesize that extremely high rainfall is a good predictor because it is an indicator of storms having high wind speeds, as well as saturated soils that increase uprooting risk. These results demonstrate the utility of repeat drone-acquired data for quantifying forest canopy disturbance rates at fine temporal and spatial resolutions over large areas, thereby enabling robust tests of how temporal variation in disturbance relates to climate drivers. Further insights could be gained by integrating these canopy observations with high-frequency measurements of wind speed and soil moisture in mechanistic models to better evaluate proximate drivers and with focal tree observations to quantify the links to tree mortality and woody turnover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Parameterization of the Elevated Convection With a Unified Convection Scheme (UNICON) and Its Impacts on the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation

To improve the simulation of nocturnal precipitation, we develop a parameterization for the elevated convection that is launched from the level of maximum grid-mean moist static energy, when grid-mean vertical flow is upward at the launching interface. The parameterized elevated convection is forced by both cold pool-driven and partially resolved external mesoscale organized flows. Properties of the external mesoscale flow are estimated from grid-mean vertical velocity and three dimensional advection tendencies of temperature and moisture. The new parameterization is implemented into a unified convection scheme (UNICON) and tested for both the single-column case at the Southern Great Plain (SGP) site in US and in global simulations. At the SGP site, the parameterized elevated convection strengthens nocturnal convection, increases nocturnal precipitation, and better simulates the observed diurnal cycle of precipitation. It appears that the elevated and surface-based convections interact with each other by stabilizing the atmospheric column, which affects subsequent convection. Global simulation shows that the elevated convection mostly occurs over the continents during the night, and also over the oceanic mid-latitude warm air advection and storm track regions during summer. Without degrading global mean climate, the elevated convection improves the simulation of nocturnal precipitation in the mid-US but simulates somewhat strong nocturnal precipitation in northeastern Asia. It seems that a key to simulate observed nocturnal precipitation is to appropriately parameterize the impacts of external organized flow on the elevated convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The High Latitude Ionospheric Response to the Major May 2024 Geomagnetic Storm: A Synoptic View

Abstract The high latitude ionospheric evolution of the May 10‐11, 2024, geomagnetic storm is investigated in terms of Total Electron Content and contextualized with Incoherent Scatter Radar and ionosonde observations. Substantial plasma lifting is observed within the initial Storm Enhanced Density plume with ionospheric peak heights increasing by 150–300 km, reaching levels of up to 630 km. Scintillation is observed within the cusp during the initial expansion phase of the storm, spreading across the auroral oval thereafter. Patch transport into the polar cap produces broad regions of scintillation that are rapidly cleared from the region after a strong Interplanetary Magnetic Field reversal at 2230UT. Strong heating and composition changes result in the complete absence of the F2‐layer on the eleventh, suffocating high latitude convection from dense plasma necessary for Tongue of Ionization and patch formation, ultimately resulting in a suppression of polar cap scintillation on the eleventh.

Themens, David R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Diurnal urban rainfall anomalies across different landscapes

Urbanization influences regional climates and extreme weather. While previous research has documented urban-induced precipitation for specific cities or storm cases, diurnal urban precipitation anomalies across different landscapes remain poorly understood. Analyzing diurnal and seasonal variations of urban precipitation anomalies across 175 US cities, we found strong urban effects on precipitation especially during summer afternoons. Large, inland cities can receive 10% more summer afternoon rainfall, and the pattern varies with urban heat islands and wind conditions. Coastal cities, under the influence of sea-land breeze, experience three times amplified daily urban precipitation enhancements than inland cities. Urban impacts are also noted for mountain cities, affecting their topography-dominated precipitation patterns. With increasing thresholds of extreme precipitation, most US cities experience more intense rainfall compared to their rural backgrounds. This study enhances our understanding of hitherto poorly documented diurnal aspects of urban rainfall through geographically distributed, landscape-specific rainfall anomalies.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

NASA NTRS1999

Wintertime East Asian Jet Stream and its Association with the Asian-Pacific-American Climate

The wintertime upper-tropospheric westerly jet stream over subtropical East Asia and western Pacific, often referred to as East Asian Jet (EAJ), is an important atmospheric circulation system in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) region. It is characterized by variabilities on a wide range of time scales and exerts a strong impact on the weather and climate of the region. On the synoptic scale, the jet is closely linked to many phenomena such as cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, blocking, storm track activity, and the development of other atmospheric disturbances. On the seasonal time scale, the variation of the EAJ determines many characteristics of the seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulation over Asia. The variabilities of the jet on these time scales have been relatively well documented (e.g., Yeh et al. 1959, Palmen and Newton 1969; Zeng 1979). It has also been understood that the inter-annual variability of the EAJ is associated with many climate signals in the APA region. These signals include the persistent anomalies of the East Asian winter monsoon and the changes in diabatic heating and in the Hadley circulation (Bjerknes 1966; Chang and Lau 1980; Huang and Gambo 1982; Kang and Held 1986; Tao and Chen 1987; Lau et al. 1988; Yang and Webster 1990; Ding 1992; Webster and Yang 1992; Dong et al. 1999). However, many questions remain for the year-to-year variabilities of the jet and their relation to the APA climate. For example, what is the relationship between the EAJ and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Will the jet and ENSO play different roles in modulating the APA climate? How is the jet linked to North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern? In this study, we address several issues related to the wintertime EAJ with a focus on interannual time scales. We will examine the association between the jet core and ENSO, which has always been overshadowed by the relationship between ENSO and the upper-tropospheric winds over northern extratropics of the central Pacific. We will investigate the linkage of the jet to variabilities of the Asian winter monsoon, tropical convection, and upper tropospheric wave patterns. We will also explore the relationship between the jet core and extratropical S ST with an aim at providing helpful information for improving our understanding of the connection of the EAJ to surface boundary conditions. The analysis is expected to provide information that is helpful for improving regional climate predictions.

Yang, Song↗

NASA NTRS1995

Obliquity Experiments with a Mars General Circulation Model

We have simulated the seasonal variation of the general circulation on Mars for obliquities of 0deg and 60deg. These obliquities represent the minimum and maximum values the planet has experienced during the past 10(exp 7) years (e.g., Laskar and Robutel, 1993, Nature, 361, 608-614). The model we use is the NASA/Ames Mars General Circulation Model (Pollack et al., 1993, J. Geophys. Res. 98, 3149-3181). We vary only the obliquity; all other model parameters are as in Pollack et al. At high obliquity, the model shows dramatic seasonal variations in the polar caps and in the structure and intensity of the circulation. At the solstices the winter cap extends to the equator. Thus, surface temperatures throughout the entire winter hemisphere are fixed at the CO2 frost point. During summer surface temperatures at the poles reach 269K in the north and 295K in the south. The most notable changes to the circulation at solstice compared to our standard runs are a general weakening of the winter westerlies, a Hadley cell of greater latitudinal extent, and the development of very strong, possibly unstable, low-level jets in midlatitudes of the summer hemisphere. Surface stresses associated with these jets are sufficient to raise dust continuously. Thus, dust storms should be frequent features of the high obliquity climate. This result is independent of any desorbed regolith CO2 which would raise mean surface pressures. At zero obliquity the structure of the circulation resembles that of present day equinox conditions modulated by the varying insolation associated with orbital eccentricity. Notable features include equatorial superrotation, asymmetric Hadley cells, and stronger poleward heat fluxes in the northern hemisphere. Since the poles do not receive solar energy at any time of year, permanent caps form which extend to about 70deg in each hemisphere. However, the north permanent cap is growing at a rate 40% faster than the south cap. This is due to the differences in topography, albedo, emissivity, and heat transport in each hemisphere. Thus the zero obliquity climate system appears to be evolving toward a state in which the north cap is the dominant cap.

Harberle, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Simulation of the October-November 2003 solar proton event in the CMAM GCM: Comparison with observations

The FTS instrument on SciSat-I observed a very large NO(x) anomaly in mid February of 2004 near 80 N in the lower mesosphere. It has been proposed that the most likely origin of the lower mesosphere anomaly in February is transport, from the lower thermosphere or upper mesosphere, of high levels of NO(x) associated with high levels of solar activity in 0ct.-Nov. 2003. There was no major solar flare activity during January and February to cause ionization in the mesosphere. Using a middle atmosphere GCM we investigate whether the NO(x) produced directly by the 0ct.-Nov. 2003 solar flares or indirectly via enhanced auroral ionization as a result of magnetospheric precipitation can explain the ACE observations. We find that the solar proton events associated with the solar explosions in 0ct.-Nov. 2003 produce insufficient amounts of NO(x), in the mesosphere and thermosphere (less than 2 ppm at 90 km) to give rise to the observed anomaly. However. there is evidence that intense aurorae caused by the 0ct.-Nov. 2003 solar storms produced thermospheric values of NO(x) reaching hundreds of ppm. The NO(x) created by the auroral particles appears to have lasted much longer than the immediate period of the 0ct.-Nov. 2003 solar storms. It appears that NO(x) rich air experienced confined polar night descent into the middle mesosphere during November and December, prior to the onset of the strong mesospheric vortex in January 2004.

Semeniuk, K.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Seasonal Variability of Saturn's Atmosphere

The seasonal variability of Saturn's clouds and weather layer, currently displaying a variety of phenomena (convective storms, planetary waves, giant storms and lightning-induced events, etc.) is not yet fully understood. Variations of Saturn's radiance at 5.2 microns, a spectral region dominated by thermal emission in an atmospheric window containing weak gaseous absorption, contain a strong axisymmetric component as well as large discrete features at low and mid-latitudes that are several degrees colder than the planetary average and uncorrelated with features at shorter wavelengths that are dominated by reflected sunlight (Yanamandra-Fisher et al., 2001. Icarus, Vol. 150). The characterization of several fundamental atmospheric properties and processes, however, remains incomplete, namely: How do seasons affect (a) the global distribution of gaseous constituents and aerosols; and (b) temperatures and the stability against convection and large scale-atmospheric transport? Do 5-micron clouds have counterparts at other altitude levels? What changes occur during the emergence of Great White Storms? Data acquired at the NASA/IRTF and NAOJ/Subaru from 1995 - 2011; since 2004, high-resolution multi-spectral and high-spatial imaging data acquired by the NASA/ESA Cassini mission, represents half a Saturnian year or two seasons. With the addition of detailed multi-spectral data sets acquired by amateur observers, we study these dramatic phenomena to better understand the timeline of the evolution of these events. Seasonal (or temporal) trends in the observables such as albedo of the clouds, thermal fields of the atmosphere as function of altitude, development of clouds, hazes and global abundances of various hydrocarbons in the atmosphere can now be modeled. We will present results of our ongoing investigation for the search and characterization of periodicities over half a Saturnian year, based on a non-biased a priori approach and time series techniques (such as Principal Component Analysis, PCA and Lomb-Scargle periodograms, LSP).

Yanamandra-Fisher, Padma A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Impact of the 8–10 March 2012 Geomagnetic Storm on Inner Zone Protons as Measured by Van Allen Probes

The Relativistic Electron Proton Telescope (REPT) instrument on the Van Allen Probes observed a double-peaked inner zone proton population throughout the 7 year lifetime of the mission. M. Hudson et al. (2023) showed that a strong SEP event accompanied by a CME-shock in early March 2012 provided the Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) source for the higher L trapped proton population, which then diffused radially inward to be observed by REPT at L = 2. The study followed trajectories of SEP protons launched isotropically from a sphere at 7 Re for 2.5 hr in fields calculated by the LFM-RCM global MHD model, which includes electric fields needed to model the transport and trapping of the protons by the shock, and then a radial diffusion simulation was run for 2 years using the result from the test-particle simulation as the initial condition. The simulation result was compared with REPT measurement in November 2013 and showed reasonable agreement. However, the simulation overestimated the Phase Space Density by a factor of four due to lack of field line curvature scattering during the storm in the model. In this study, a test-particle simulation is performed for 2 days following the injection and trapping of protons in March 2012 using TS05 fields to simulate the field line curvature scattering of the trapped SEP due to the buildup of the ring current during the geomagnetic storm. The resulting sample distribution was then weighted using the flux at the end of the two-hour MHD-test particle simulation. A radial diffusion simulation is then run using the initial profile that included the loss effect, with improved comparison with REPT measurements after 2 years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2022

Atmospheric Energy Spectra in Global Kilometre-Scale Models

Eleven 40-day long integrations of five different global models with horizontal resolutions of less than 9 km are compared in terms of their global energy spectra. The method of normal-mode function decomposition is used to distinguish between balanced (Rossby wave; RW) and unbalanced (inertia-gravity wave; IGW) circulation. The simulations produce the expected canonical shape of the spectra, but their spectral slopes at mesoscales, and the zonal scale at which RW and IGW spectra intersect differ significantly. The partitioning of total wave energies into RWs an IGWs is most sensitive to the turbulence closure scheme and this partitioning is what determines the spectral crossing scale in the simulations, which differs by a factor of up to two. It implies that care must be taken when using simple spatial filtering to compare gravity wave phenomena in storm-resolving simulations, even when the model horizontal resolutions are similar. In contrast to the energy partitioning between the RWs and IGWs, changes in turbulence closure schemes do not seem to strongly affect spectral slopes, which only exhibit major differences at mesoscales. Despite their minor contribution to the global (horizontal kinetic plus potential available) energy, small scales are important for driving the global mean circulation. Our results support the conclusions of previous studies that the strength of convection is a relevant factor for explaining discrepancies in the energies at small scales. The models studied here produce the major large-scale features of tropical precipitation patterns. However, particularly at large horizontal wavenumbers, the spectra of upper tropospheric vertical velocity, which is a good indicator for the strength of deep convection, differ by factors of three or more in energy. High vertical kinetic energies at small scales are mostly found in those models that do not use any convective parameterisation.

DYAMOND↗

DOE OSTI2015

Penetration of magnetosonic waves into the plasmasphere observed by the Van Allen Probes

During the small storm on 14–15 April 2014, Van Allen Probe A measured a continuously distinct proton ring distribution and enhanced magnetosonic (MS) waves along its orbit outside the plasmapause. Inside the plasmasphere, strong MS waves were still present but the distinct proton ring distribution was falling steeply with distance. We adopt a sum of subtracted bi-Maxwellian components to model the observed proton ring distribution and simulate the wave trajectory and growth. MS waves at first propagate toward lower L shells outside the plasmasphere, with rapidly increasing path gains related to the continuous proton ring distribution. The waves then gradually cross the plasmapause into the deep plasmasphere, with almost unchanged path gains due to the falling proton ring distribution and higher ambient density. These results present the first report on how MS waves penetrate into the plasmasphere with the aid of the continuous proton ring distributions during weak geomagnetic activities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Understanding the Relationships Between Lightning, Cloud Microphysics, and Airborne Radar-derived Storm Structure During Hurricane Karl (2010)

This study explores relationships between lightning, cloud microphysics, and tropical cyclone (TC) storm structure in Hurricane Karl (16 September 2010) using data collected by the NASA DC-8 and Global Hawk (GH) aircraft during NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment. The research capitalizes on the unique opportunity provided by GRIP to synthesize multiple datasets from two aircraft and analyze the microphysical and kinematic properties of an electrified TC. Five coordinated flight legs through Karl by the DC-8 and GH are investigated, focusing on the inner-core region (within 50km of the storm center) where the lightning was concentrated and the aircraft were well coordinated. GRIP datasets are used to compare properties of electrified and nonelectrified inner-core regions that are related to the noninductive charging mechanism, which is widely accepted to explain the observed electric fields within thunderstorms. Three common characteristics of Karl's electrified regions are identified: 1) strong updrafts of 10-20ms21, 2) deep mixed-phase layers indicated by reflectivities.30 dBZ extending several kilometers above the freezing level, and 3) microphysical environments consisting of graupel, very small ice particles, and the inferred presence of supercooled water. These characteristics describe an environment favorable for in situ noninductive charging and, hence, TC electrification. The electrified regions in Karl's inner core are attributable to a microphysical environment that was conducive to electrification because of occasional, strong convective updrafts in the eyewall.

Cloud mircophysics↗

DOE OSTI2019

Atmospheric Blocking and Other Large-Scale Precursor Patterns of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the North Pacific: A CESM2 Study

Atmospheric rivers, narrow channels of strong winds carrying abundant moisture and spanning thousands of kilometers, often result in flooding. The broader weather patterns that precede atmospheric river formation can determine which regions the storms will impact, but our understanding of such processes remains insufficient. In this study, atmospheric river events in the North Pacific region are identified, and their precursor weather patterns are examined in observational data sets and within a global climate model. The analysis shows that when a large area of high pressure forms over Alaska and far eastern Siberia, the preferred path of storms crossing the North Pacific is diverted toward the south. The southward-shifted storms, some of which develop into atmospheric rivers, guide moist air toward the U.S. west coast and can produce extreme precipitation. The climate model performs reasonably well at representing atmospheric rivers and their associated precursor weather patterns. These results highlight important connections between atmospheric rivers and the large-scale weather patterns than can precede them by more than a week. Knowledge of such patterns has the potential to improve predictions of damaging wind and extreme precipitation events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗