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At least 397 records · Page 22

Operation Optimization using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework

In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Stochastic Look-Ahead Commitment: A Case Study in MISO

This paper introduces the Stochastic Look Ahead Commitment (SLAC) software prototyped and tested for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) look ahead commitment process. SLAC can incorporate hundreds of wind, load, and net scheduled interchange (NSI) uncertainty scenarios. It uses a progressive hedging method to solve a novel two-stage stochastic unit commitment. The first stage commitment decisions, made only for those generators whose decision to commit or not in each time period cannot be deferred, can cover the uncertainties within the next three hours. The second stage includes both the dispatch for each of the scenarios and the commitment decisions that can be deferred. Study results on 15 MISO production days show that SLAC may bring economic and reliability benefits under uncertainty.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Simulation-based assessment on stochastic load scheduling for building cooling systems

Here, to fill knowledge gaps related to stochastic load scheduling, we performed a comprehensive evaluation of the stochastic load scheduling for building cooling systems. Specifically, we studied the common uncertain variables in the load scheduling process for building cooling systems and categorized those variables based on their dynamic patterns. We then developed a generic stochastic load scheduling framework and applied it to building cooling systems that served a simulated community. This community consists of 100 heterogeneous houses and serves as a virtual testbed for evaluating the performance of stochastic load scheduling. In this evaluation, we considered representatives of uncertain variables with different dynamic patterns and included 100 realizations of the considered uncertainty in the evaluation to better catch the probability distribution of the control performance. The evaluation results suggest that deterministic load scheduling can reduce the operating energy cost by 18% but its performance can be affected by uncertainty. Stochastic load scheduling can further decrease the operating energy cost under uncertainty compared to deterministic load scheduling. We also found that the effectiveness of stochastic load scheduling in handling uncertainty is not directly associated with the number of uncertainty scenarios that are considered in its formulation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An Intelligent Distributed Ledger Construction Algorithm for IoT

Blockchain is the next generation of secure data management that creates near-immutable decentralized storage. Secure cryptography created a niche for blockchain to provide alternatives to well-known security compromises. However, design bottlenecks with traditional blockchain data structures scale poorly with increased network usage and are extremely computation-intensive. This made the technology difficult to combine with limited devices, like those in Internet of Things networks. In protocols like IOTA, replacement of blockchain's linked-list queue processing with a lightweight dynamic ledger showed remarkable throughput performance increase. However, current stochastic algorithms for ledger construction suffer distinct trade-offs between efficiency and security. This work proposed a machine-learning approach with a multi-arm bandit that resolved these issues and was designed for auditing on limited devices. This algorithm was tested in a reinforcement-learning environment simulating the IOTA ledger's construction with a decision tree. This study showed through regret analysis and experimentation that this approach was secure against impulse manipulation attacks while remaining energy-efficient. Although the IOTA protocol was a pioneer for lightweight distributed ledgers, it is expected that future blockchain protocols will adopt techniques similar to those presented in this work.

multi-arm bandit↗

Robustness of the Stochastic Parameterization of Subgrid-Scale Wind Variability in Sea Surface Fluxes

Abstract High-resolution numerical models have been used to develop statistical models of the enhancement of sea surface fluxes resulting from spatial variability of sea surface wind. In particular, studies have shown that flux enhancement is not a deterministic function of the resolved state. Previous studies focused on single geographical areas or used a single high-resolution numerical model. This study extends the development of such statistical models by considering six different high-resolution models, four different geographical regions, and three different 10-day periods, allowing for a systematic investigation of the robustness of both the deterministic and stochastic parts of the data-driven parameterization. Results indicate that the deterministic part, based on regressing the unresolved normalized flux onto resolved-scale normalized flux and precipitation, is broadly robust across different models, regions, and time periods. The statistical features of the stochastic part of the model (spatial and temporal autocorrelation and parameters of a Gaussian process fit to the regression residual) are also found to be robust and not strongly sensitive to the underlying model, modeled geographical region, or time period studied. Best-fit Gaussian process parameters display robust spatial heterogeneity across models, indicating potential for improvements to the statistical model. These results illustrate the potential for the development of a generic, explicitly stochastic parameterization of sea surface flux enhancements dependent on wind variability.

Endo, Kota↗

Process Optimization

Process optimization is the discipline of adjusting a process to optimize a specified set of parameters without violating engineering constraints. This article reviews data-driven optimization methods based on genetic algorithms and stochastic models and demonstrates their use in powder-bed fusion and directed energy deposition processes. In the latter case, closed-loop feedback is used to control melt pool temperature and cooling rate in order to achieve desired microstructure.

Sprayberry, Michael↗

Physics-Informed Sparse Gaussian Process for Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Large-Scale Power System with Dynamic PVs and Loads

This work proposes a physics-informed sparse Gaussian process (SGP) for probabilistic stability assessment of large-scale power systems in the presence of uncertain dynamic PVs and loads. The differential and algebraic equations considering uncertainties from dynamic PVs and loads are reformulated to a nonlinear mapping relationship that allows the application of SGP. Thanks to the nonparametric characteristic of Gaussian process, the proposed framework does not require distributions of uncertain inputs and this distinguishes it from existing approaches. As the original Gaussian process is not scalable to large-scale systems with high dimensional uncertain inputs, this paper develops the SGP with a stochastic variational inference technique. It leads to approximately two orders of complex reduction. A data pre-processing step is also introduced to tackle the coexistence of stable and unstable cases by sample clustering and constructing separate SGPs. The probabilistic transient stability index is analyzed to assess system stability under different uncertain dynamics loads and PVs. Comparisons are performed with the sampling-based, the polynomial chaos expansion-based, and traditional Gaussian process-based methods on the modified IEEE 118-bus and Texas 2000-bus systems under various scenarios, including different levels of uncertainties and the existence of nonlinear correlations among dynamic PVs. The impacts of data quality and quantity issues are also investigated. It is shown that the proposed SGP achieves significantly improved computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy with a limited number of data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Calibration verification for stochastic agent-based disease spread models

Accurate disease spread modeling is crucial for identifying the severity of outbreaks and planning effective mitigation efforts. To be reliable when applied to new outbreaks, model calibration techniques must be robust. However, current methods frequently forgo calibration verification (a stand-alone process evaluating the calibration procedure) and instead use overall model validation (a process comparing calibrated model results to data) to check calibration processes, which may conceal errors in calibration. In this work, we develop a stochastic agent-based disease spread model to act as a testing environment as we test two calibration methods using simulation-based calibration, which is a synthetic data calibration verification method. The first calibration method is a Bayesian inference approach using an empirically-constructed likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, while the second method is a likelihood-free approach using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Simulation-based calibration suggests that there are challenges with the empirical likelihood calculation used in the first calibration method in this context. These issues are alleviated in the ABC approach. Despite these challenges, we note that the first calibration method performs well in a synthetic data model validation test similar to those common in disease spread modeling literature. We conclude that stand-alone calibration verification using synthetic data may benefit epidemiological researchers in identifying model calibration challenges that may be difficult to identify with other commonly used model validation techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Stochastic fracture generation and thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling in an equivalent continuum framework for enhanced geothermal systems

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) involve fracturing low permeability material to establish well connectivity and then injecting and circulating fluid into the fractured subsurface for geothermal power production. Changes in fracture aperture from contraction of the cooling matrix rock may alter network connectivity and risk thermal short-circuiting. Thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models are a useful tool to study these processes. However, as fracture networks are complex, and data may be limited, fracture networks in THM models are often stochastically generated. Given reliance on stochastic fracture networks and THM modeling to represent the subsurface and assess productivity of EGS, increased understanding of the influence of such statistically derived fracture networks on flow and heat transport in THM models is needed. Here, a new fracture process model is developed in the reactive transport code PFLOTRAN to stochastically generate fracture families and simulate changes in fracture aperture over time due to temperature changes of the rock matrix. Sixty-four different fracture networks ranging from well to poorly-connected, are modeled in PFLOTRAN with and without mechanical processes (THM vs TH). Results indicate that for well-connected fracture networks, thermal short-circuiting is less of a concern due to the abundance of available alternative flowpaths. For poorly-connected fracture networks, inclusion of mechanical processes showed steep thermal drawdown coincident with increase in fracture aperture along developing colder flowpaths, demonstrating the risk of thermal short-circuiting. Simulations with additional, larger fractures engineered to establish connectivity in a poorly-fractured subsurface, indicate that while stochastic variation of fracture orientation of the background network had limited influence, such variation in the engineered fractures significantly affected flow and heat transport.

Discrete fracture networks (DFN)↗

Stochastic Vector Techniques in Ground-State Electronic Structure

Herein we review a suite of stochastic vector computational approaches for studying the electronic structure of extended condensed matter systems. These techniques help reduce algorithmic complexity, facilitate efficient parallelization, simplify computational tasks, accelerate calculations, and diminish memory requirements. While their scope is vast, we limit our study to ground-state and finite temperature density functional theory (DFT) and second-order many-body perturbation theory. More advanced topics, such as quasiparticle (charge) and optical (neutral) excitations and higher-order processes, are covered elsewhere. We start by explaining how to use stochastic vectors in computations, characterizing the associated statistical errors. Next, we show how to estimate the electron density in DFT and discuss effective techniques to reduce statistical errors. Finally, we review the use of stochastic vectors for calculating correlation energies within the second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory and its finite temperature variational form. Example calculation results are presented and used to demonstrate the efficacy of the methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Integrated Strategies for Overcoming Resolution Limits in Electron Beam Lithography of Chemically Amplified Resists

Electron beam lithography (EBL) of chemically amplified resists (CARs) faces fundamental challenges, including stochastic electron scattering and acid diffusion, that limit resolution and reproducibility. Using SU-8 as a model CAR, this study systematically investigated complementary strategies to address these challenges, combining multipass exposure, proximity effect correction (PEC) with midrange correction factors, base quencher incorporation, and post-exposure bake (PEB) suppression. Monte Carlo simulations and calibrated PEC modeling revealed that extending the point spread function to include a midrange scattering component significantly improved critical dimension (CD) control across varying pattern densities, correcting deviations that conventional two-term PEC failed to capture. Multipass exposure, particularly 4-pass writing with a 25% offset, redistributed the dose to average stochastic beam and scattering fluctuations, reducing line-width roughness by more than 50% and yielding more uniform nanoscale features. Photoacid confinement was investigated by adding urea as a base quencher, which successfully reduced acid diffusion but introduced substantial sensitivity penalties without improving ultimate resolution or Z-factor performance, underscoring the trade-offs of chemical versus physical confinement. Suppressing PEB most directly minimized acid diffusion, resulting in improved Z-factors and reproducible 30 nm half-pitch dense line/space patterns. Overall, these results demonstrated that PEC with midrange correction, multipass strategies, quencher additives, and PEB-free processing addresses different aspects of the EBL process window and that their integration provides a comprehensive framework for managing stochastic scattering, diffusion, and chemical amplification effects. This framework advances dense nanoscale patterning in CARs and establishes guiding principles for optimizing resist design and process strategies in high-resolution EBL and potentially other advanced lithographies, such as extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Classical shadows for quantum process tomography on near-term quantum computers

Quantum process tomography is a powerful tool for understanding quantum channels and characterizing the properties of quantum devices. Inspired by recent advances using classical shadows in quantum state tomography [H.-Y. Huang, R. Kueng, and J. Preskill, .], we have developed ShadowQPT, a classical shadow method for quantum process tomography. We introduce two related formulations with and without ancilla qubits. ShadowQPT stochastically reconstructs the Choi matrix of the device allowing for an classical evaluation of the device on arbitrary inputs with respect to arbitrary outputs. Using shadows, we then show how to compute overlaps, generate all k -weight reduced processes, and perform reconstruction via Hamiltonian learning. These latter two tasks are efficient for large systems as the number of quantum measurements needed scales only logarithmically with the number of qubits. A number of additional approximations and improvements are developed, including the use of a pair-factorized Clifford shadow and a series of postprocessing techniques that significantly enhance the accuracy for recovering the quantum channel. We have implemented ShadowQPT using both Pauli and Clifford measurements on the IonQ trapped ion quantum computer for quantum processes up to n = 4 qubits, and we achieved good performance. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Levy, Ryan (ORCID:0000000349527156)↗

Real Space Imaging of Field-Driven Decision-Making in Nanomagnetic Galton Boards

A possible spintronic route to hardware implementation for decision-making involves injecting a domain wall into a bifurcated magnetic nanostrip resembling a Y-shaped junction. A decision is made when the domain wall chooses a particular path through the bifurcation. Recently, it was shown that a structure like a nanomagnetic Galton board, which is essentially an array of interconnected Y-shaped junctions, produces outcomes that are stochastic and therefore relevant to artificial neural networks. However, the exact mechanism leading to the robust nature of randomness is unknown. Here, in this study, we directly image the decision-making process in nanomagnetic Galton boards using Lorentz transmission electron microscopy. We identify that the stochasticity in nanomagnetic Galton boards arises as a culmination of (1) the topology of the injected domain wall, (2) dissimilarly sized vertices, and (3) the strength of the applied field. Our results pave the way to a detailed understanding of stochasticity in nanomagnetic networks.

lorentz microscopy↗

Electromagnetic turbulence simulation of tokamak edge plasma dynamics and divertor heat load during thermal quench

Abstract The edge plasma turbulence and transport dynamics, as well as the divertor power loads during the thermal-quench phase of tokamak disruptions, are numerically investigated with BOUT++’s flux-driven six-field electromagnetic turbulence model. Here, transient yet intense particle and energy sources are applied at the pedestal top to mimic the plasma power drive at the edge induced by a core thermal collapse, which flattens the core temperature profile. Interesting features, such as surging of divertor heat load (up to 50 times) and broadening of heat-flux width (up to four times) on the outer-divertor target plate, are observed in the simulation, in qualitative agreement with experimental observations. The dramatic changes in divertor heat load and width are due to the enhanced plasma turbulence activities inside the separatrix. Two cross-field transport mechanisms, namely, the E × B turbulent convection and the stochastic parallel advection/conduction, are identified to play important roles in this process. First, an elevated edge pressure gradient drives instabilities and subsequent turbulence in the entire pedestal region. The enhanced turbulence not only transports particles and energy radially across the separatrix via the E × B convection, which causes the initial divertor heat-load burst, but it also induces amplified magnetic fluctuation B ˜ . Once themagnetic fluctuation is large enough to break the magnetic flux surface, magnetic flutter effect provides an additional radial transport channel. In the late stage of our simulation, | B ˜ r / B 0 | reaches to 10 −4 level that completely breaks magnetic flux surfaces such that stochastic field lines are directly connecting pedestal top plasma to the divertor target plates or first wall, further contributing to the divertor heat-flux width broadening.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Functional Traits Resolve Mechanisms Governing the Assembly and Distribution of Nitrogen-Cycling Microbial Communities in the Global Ocean

Microorganisms drive much of the marine nitrogen (N) cycle, which jointly controls the primary production in the global ocean. However, our understanding of the microbial communities driving the global ocean N cycle remains fragmented. Focusing on “who is doing what, where, and how?”, this study draws a clear picture describing the global biogeography of marine N-cycling microbial communities by utilizing the Tara Oceans shotgun metagenomes. The marine N-cycling communities are highly variable taxonomically but relatively even at the functional trait level, showing clear functional redundancy properties. The functional traits and taxonomic groups are shaped by the same set of geo-environmental factors, among which, depth is the major factor impacting marine N-cycling communities, differentiating mesopelagic from epipelagic communities. Latitudinal diversity gradients and distance-decay relationships are observed for taxonomic groups, but rarely or weakly for functional traits. The composition of functional traits is strongly deterministic as revealed by null model analysis, while a higher degree of stochasticity is observed for taxonomic composition. Integrating multiple lines of evidence, in addition to drawing a biogeographic picture of marine N-cycling communities, this study also demonstrated an essential microbial ecological theory—determinism governs the assembly of microbial communities performing essential biogeochemical processes; the environment selects functional traits rather than taxonomic groups; functional redundancy underlies stochastic taxonomic community assembly.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation of turbulent inflow specification in Euler–Lagrange simulations of mid-field spray

The process of atomization of a liquid jet by a parallel high-speed gas stream results in a spray, whose downstream development is of considerable interest to several applications. The round jet spray can be spatially divided into (i) a near-field (near-nozzle) region of liquid atomization and (ii) a downstream mid-field region of fully-dispersed droplets. In order to accurately model mid-field droplet dispersion, this work aims at developing a rigorous and robust injection model for Euler–Lagrange spray simulations. Results from experiments are used to obtain the relevant droplet number density, size distribution, and mean and standard deviation velocity distributions of the injection model, systematically in a step-by-step process. Two-phase large eddy simulations are performed by stochastically generating the Lagrangian droplets at the inlet of the mid-field region. Number flux, diameter distribution, mean velocity, and other time-averaged statistics at several downstream locations are shown to agree well with the corresponding experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NRAP-Open-IAM Analytical Reservoir Model: Development and Testing

Geological carbon sequestration (GCS) is a key technology for reducing global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Over the last decade, the U.S. Department of Energy has invested in understanding the science base, developing practical implementation methods, and demonstrating secure GCS technologies to mitigate the environmental impacts associated with the atmospheric release of CO 2 . As part of the National Risk Assessment Partnership, a systems-level risk assessment tool, called the NRAP-Open-IAM, has been developed to conduct risk assessment and enable safe operations at a GCS site. The current NRAP-Open-IAM contains a simple reservoir model component that calculates the evolution of CO 2 saturation and fluid pressure in a storage reservoir during CO 2 injection operations. This report presents the development and testing of a new analytical reservoir reduced-order model (ROM), which is extended from an existing semi-analytical model for estimation of CO 2 and brine leakage along legacy wells, and enhances the capability of the NRAP-Open-IAM to simulate more types of reservoir conditions. The developed model is validated against three reference studies, and the results indicate that the new ROM predicts the behavior of the two-phase fluids (brine and injected CO 2 ) well and is applicable to different reservoir simulation boundary conditions (i.e., constant pressure boundary and infinite-acting boundary) without a priori user specification of the boundary type. Sensitivity analysis for a set of model parameters is performed using 4,000 synthetic cases prepared via a fully automated process and using machine-learning-based feature selection. The stochastic analysis identifies gravitational number (i.e., ratio of gravitational forces to viscous force) and distance between the injection well and observation location as the most impactful parameters for matching the pressure and CO 2 saturation, respectively, between the numerical simulations and the ROM. This report details the possible ROM uncertainties and serves as a guide for users to understand the use and limitations of this ROM. The code implementation of the model will be released as a module within the NRAP-Open-IAM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗