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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Monitoring and prediction of porosity in laser powder bed fusion using physics-informed meltpool signatures and machine learning

In this work we accomplished the monitoring and prediction of porosity in laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing process. This objective was realized by extracting physics-informed meltpool signatures from an in-situ dual-wavelength imaging pyrometer, and subsequently, analyzing these signatures via computationally tractable machine learning approaches. Porosity in LPBF occurs despite extensive optimization of processing conditions due to stochastic causes. Hence, it is essential to continually monitor the process with in-situ sensors for detecting and mitigating incipient pore formation. In this work a tall cuboid-shaped part (10 mm × 10 mm × 137 mm, material ATI 718Plus) was built with controlled porosity by varying laser power and scanning speed. This test caused various types of porosity, such as lack-of-fusion and keyhole formation, with varying degrees of severity in the part. The meltpool was continuously monitored using a dual-wavelength imaging pyrometer installed in the machine. Physically intuitive process signatures, such as meltpool length, temperature distribution, and ejecta (spatter) characteristics, were extracted from the meltpool images. Subsequently, relatively simple machine learning models, e.g., K-Nearest Neighbors, were trained to predict both the severity and type of porosity as a function of these physics-informed meltpool signatures. These models resulted in a prediction accuracy exceeding 95% (statistical F1-score). The same analysis was carried out with a complex, black-box deep learning convolutional neural network which directly used the meltpool images instead of physics-informed features. The convolutional neural network produced a comparable F1-score in the range of 89–97%. Finally, these results demonstrate that using pragmatic, physics-informed meltpool signatures within a simple machine learning model is as effective for flaw prediction in LPBF as using a complex and computationally demanding black-box deep learning model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of Expert Vocabulary Usage Patterns Between Mental Health and Nonmental Health Clinicians When Diagnosing Pediatric Anxiety Disorders

Objective: To compare the utilization patterns of expert vocabulary (EVo) in diagnosing pediatric anxiety between mental health and non-mental health clinical notes from electronic health records to understand the role of Evo in informing classification and decision-making in anxiety diagnoses. Study design: We conducted a retrospective study using a cohort less than age 25 from Cincinnati Children's Hospital including 897 685 patients with 61 586 446 notes. We analyzed EVo, collected from mental health clinicians, in both mental and nonmental health notes. We compared classification accuracy using EVo-based patient-level embedding from all clinical notes, mental-health notes, and nonmental health notes for 2 tasks: 1) pre-vs postdiagnosis anxiety patients, and 2) prediagnosis anxiety vs nonanxiety patients. Results: EVo usage was highest in prediagnosis anxiety, lower in nonanxiety, and lowest in post-diagnosis. Classification models using EVo features from all, mental-health, and non-mental health notes showed similar F1 scores for prediagnosis anxiety (0.70 ± 0.2 for 2 categories). For anxiety vs nonanxiety classification, all clinical and nonmental health notes had better F1 scores than mental-health notes (above 0.90 for 3 categories). There was a notable difference in class-wise performance across both tasks. Conclusions: There are significant differences in anxiety EVo use between mental health and nonmental health clinicians. Despite less anxiety-specific terminology, non-mental health notes still captured key aspects of patient presentations, emphasizing the importance of including all clinicians' notes in analysis. EVo's utility for anxiety classification is most effective in prediagnostic phases, suggesting the need for a dedicated diagnostic lexicon and further study before incorporating EVo into classification models.

feature engineering↗

DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid numerical and machine learning framework for evaluating the performance of a 780 cm 2 aqueous organic redox flow battery

Aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB) is a promising cost-competitive technology for large-scale energy storage. Among existing work, the dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based AORFB has demonstrated high energy density and low capacity degradation in 10 cm2 cells during lab tests. However, its commercial-scale performance in more complex environments remains unknown, posing a barrier for commercialization. To address this gap, this work presents a comprehensive performance evaluation of a 780 cm 2 DHP-based AORFB by combining physics-based numerical model, machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models, and ML-derived sensitivity quantification. Specifically, we first select 12 key battery parameters that include 10 physicochemical quantities and 2 operation quantities, then select 6 performance metrics that include energy efficiency (EE), discharging capacity, charging energy, and power losses due to concentration, activation, and ohmic over-potentials. With such selection, 12800 combinations of the 12 parameters are subsequently generated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. These combinations, together with 38 pre-defined State of Charge, are then integrated to a validated AORFB model developed in COMSOL to compute the performance metrics. With both input parameters and performance metrics, 60 deep neural network (DNN) surrogate models are then trained to approximate the relationship between the 10 physicochemical quantities and 6 performance metrics at each flow rate and current density. Sensitivity scores are then calculated based on the DNN models. Two additional sensitivity analysis tools, i.e., MARS, and SHAP, are also used to cross-validate the sensitivity scores from the DNN. The results demonstrate that 1) the standard potential ranks the first in controlling EE and charging energy, 2) the membrane conductivity is most critical for power loss and EE, and 3) specific area and reaction rate control activation power loss.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the effectiveness of M-AMBI with other biotic indexes in a temperate estuary

Need for a scalable and widely applicable index has been increasingly important. This study evaluates the applicability of the M-AMBI, a potential comprehensive index, at small spatial scales. M-AMBI was compared to regional indices (EMAP-E and GOM B-IBI), assessing response to natural environmental gradients and low oxygen stress. Results indicate poor agreement between indices with M-AMBI and GOM B-IBI showing positive correlation but significant disagreement in habitat condition. EMAP-E had no agreement. Indices showed similar patterns of better habitat scores in higher salinities. M-AMBI also showed a negative relationship with sediment organic matter and total nitrogen. DO influenced all indices with M-AMBI the most sensitive. However, mismatches between DO and index score were observed further calibration may be needed before adoption into programs. Altogether, the M-AMBI demonstrates potential at smaller, local scales, but additional studies are needed to validate its performance in different coastal environments and under different conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Combined effects of horizontal and vertical resolution on reliable turbulence prediction at tidal energy sites: A systematic study in the Salish Sea, WA

Predicting turbulence characteristics with coastal ocean models is essential for tidal energy converter deployment. While large eddy simulation provides a detailed turbulence representation, computational limitations restrict its use to smaller domains. We systematically evaluate whether well-configured coastal models can provide reliable turbulence prediction through progressive refinement of 3D model representation. We implemented four model configurations (Levels 1–4) using terrain-following coordinates, isolating the impacts of horizontal resolution, vertical resolution, and layer distribution. We validated all configurations against field measurements from the Salish Sea, WA. Results show that tidal current velocity predictions remain unchanged regarding model configuration, but turbulence properties are sensitive to resolution refinement. Increasing vertical resolution alone proved insufficient; even with vertical sigma-levels rising from 11 to 41, significant underprediction persisted until finer horizontal resolution better captured bathymetric variations. The Level 4 configuration, incorporating geometric sigma-levels distribution, achieved turbulence prediction skill scores exceeding 0.90. Turbulence closure comparison revealed Mellor- Yamada 2.5 outperformed k-epsilon in TKE prediction (skill scores 0.84–0.94 versus 0.72–0.81) due to better boundary layer parameterization. This study shows that well-configured coastal models effectively bridge the gap between simplified tools and costly high-fidelity modeling, offering the tidal energy industry practical and cost-effective turbulence data at commercially relevant scales.

Marine Energy↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating wind speed and power forecasts for wind energy applications using an open-source and systematic validation framework

Building on the verification and validation work developed under the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project, this work exhibits the value of a consistent procedure to evaluate wind power forecasts. We established an open-source Python code base tailored for wind speed and wind power forecast validation, WE-Validate. The code base can evaluate model forecasts with observations in a coherent manner. To demonstrate the systematic validation framework of WE-Validate, we designed and hosted a forecast evaluation benchmark exercise. We invited forecast providers in industry and academia to participate and submit forecasts for two case studies. We then evaluated the submissions with WE-Validate. Our findings suggest that ensemble means have reasonable skills in time series forecasting, whereas they are often inferior to single ensemble members in wind ramp forecasting. Adopting a voting scheme in ramp forecasting that allows ensemble members to detect ramps independently leads to satisfactory skill scores. Throughout this document, we also emphasize the importance of using statistically robust and resistant metrics as well as equitable skill scores in forecast evaluation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Learning From User Behavior: A Survey-Assist Algorithm for Longitudinal Mobility Data Collection

GPS-based travel surveys are widely used in mobility studies to gather crucial qualitative data, like purpose, transportation mode and replaced mode. However, survey response still poses a burden to users, especially in long-term mobility studies, leading to response fatigue. We explore a survey-assist strategy to ease this burden by a novel, user-level modeling approach that leverages past responses from each user to predict responses for new trips, without relying on external data sources like GIS data. We investigate three main algorithms for predicting responses: (i) clustering trips and extrapolating responses for similar trips, (ii) using random forest classification, and (iii) clustering that uses a hybrid algorithm to determine spatial structure, which is then fed as input to a classic random forest classifier. The clustering approach can flexibly predict responses for even complex qualitative survey questions; it achieved F-scores of 65%. The random forest pipeline uses architecture that restricts it to predicting three predetermined survey questions: trip purpose, mode, and replaced mode. However, it achieved F-scores of 78%. While the survey-assist approach has been implemented by several proprietary systems, to our knowledge, this is the first exploration in the academic literature. It follows that this is also the first rigorous evaluation of multiple algorithms that can implement the approach. The evaluation uses a large scale, publicly available, longitudinal dataset consisting of ~ 92k trips from 235 users over a period of roughly one and a half years. With this approach, travel surveys can be pre-filled with the predicted responses for each trip, thus streamlining the survey process for users. Combined with an active learning system that requests user input on low-confidence predictions, models can be updated and improved over time to better support the long-term collection of longitudinal qualitative data.

clustering↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of the molecular determinants for furin cleavage of the spike protein S1/S2 site in defined strains of the prototype coronavirus murine hepatitis virus (MHV)

We analyzed the spike protein S1/S2 cleavage of selected strains of a prototype coronavirus, mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) by the cellular protease furin, in order to understand the structural requirements underlying the sequence selectivity of the scissile segment. The probability of cleavage of selected MHV strains was first evaluated from furin cleavage scores predicted by the ProP computer software, and then cleavage was measured experimentally with a fluorogenic peptide cleavage assay consisting of S1/S2 peptide mimics and purified furin. We found that in vitro cleavability varied across MHV strains in line with predicted results—but with the notable exception of MHV-A59, which was not cleaved despite a high score predicted for its sequence. Using the known X-Ray structure of furin in complex with a substrate-like inhibitor as an initial structural reference, we carried out molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to learn the modes of binding of the peptides in the furin active site, and the suitability of the complex for initiation of the enzymatic cleavage. We identified the 3D structural requirements of the furin active site configuration that enable bound peptides to undergo cleavage, and the way in which the various strains tested experimentally are fulfilling these requirements. We find that despite some flexibility in the organization of the peptide bound to the active site of the enzyme, the presence of a histidine at P2 of MHV-A59 fails to properly orient the sidechain of His194 of the furin catalytic triad and therefore produces a distortion that renders the peptide/complex structural configuration in the active site incompatible with requirements for cleavage initiation. The Ser/Thr in P1 of MHV-2 and MHV-S has a similar effect of distorting the conformation of the furin active site residues produced by the elimination of the canonical salt-bridge formed by arginine in P1 position. This work informs a study of coronavirus infection and pathogenesis with respect to the function of the viral spike protein, and suggests an important process of viral adaptation and evolution within the spike S1/S2 structural loop.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Supercomputer-Based Ensemble Docking Drug Discovery Pipeline with Application to Covid-19

In this work, we present a supercomputer-driven pipeline for in silico drug discovery using enhanced sampling molecular dynamics (MD) and ensemble docking. Ensemble docking makes use of MD results by docking compound databases into representative protein binding-site conformations, thus taking into account the dynamic properties of the binding sites. We also describe preliminary results obtained for 24 systems involving eight proteins of the proteome of SARS-CoV-2. The MD involves temperature replica exchange enhanced sampling, making use of massively parallel supercomputing to quickly sample the configurational space of protein drug targets. Using the Summit supercomputer at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, more than 1 ms of enhanced sampling MD can be generated per day. We have ensemble docked repurposing databases to 10 configurations of each of the 24 SARS-CoV-2 systems using AutoDock Vina. Comparison to experiment demonstrates remarkably high hit rates for the top scoring tranches of compounds identified by our ensemble approach. We also demonstrate that, using Autodock-GPU on Summit, it is possible to perform exhaustive docking of one billion compounds in under 24 h. Finally, we discuss preliminary results and planned improvements to the pipeline, including the use of quantum mechanical (QM), machine learning, and artificial intelligence (AI) methods to cluster MD trajectories and rescore docking poses.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

CyProduct: A software tool for accurately predicting the byproducts of human cytochrome P450 metabolism

In silico metabolism prediction is a cheminformatic task of autonomously predicting the set of metabolic byproducts produced from a specified molecule and a set of enzymes or reactions. Here we describe a novel machine-learned in silico cytochrome P450 (CYP450) metabolism prediction suite, called CyProduct, that accurately predicts metabolic byproducts for a specified molecule and a human CYP450 isoform. It includes three modules: (1) CypReact, a tool that predicts if the query compound reacts with a given CYP450 enzyme; (2) CypBoM, a tool that accurately predicts the “bond site” of the reaction (i.e., which specific bonds within the query molecule react with the CYP isoform); and (3) MetaboGen, a tool that generates the metabolic byproducts based on CypBoM’s bond-site prediction. CyProduct predicts metabolic biotransformation products for each of the nine most important human CYP450 enzymes. CypBoM uses an important new concept called “Bond of Metabolism” (BoM), which extends the traditional “Site of Metabolism" (SoM) by specifying the information about the set of chemical bonds that is modified or formed in a metabolic reaction (rather than the specific atom). We created a BoM database for 3487 CYP450-mediated Phase I reactions, then used this to train the CypBoM Predictor to predict the reactive bond locations on substrate molecules. CypBoM Predictor’s cross-validated Jaccard score for reactive bond prediction ranged from 0.380 to 0.452 over the nine CYP450 enzymes. Over variants of a test set of 72 known CYP450 substrates and 30 non-reactants, CyProduct outperformed the other packages -- including ADMET Predictor, BioTransformer and GLORY -- by an average of 200% (wrt Jaccard score) in terms of predicting metabolites. The CyProduct suite and the datasets are freely available at https://bitbucket.org/wishartlab/cyproduct/src/master/.

Machine learning, Cytochrome P450, Metabolism pred↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pose Classification Using Three-Dimensional Atomic Structure-Based Neural Networks Applied to Ion Channel–Ligand Docking

The identification of promising lead compounds showing pharmacological activities toward a biological target is essential in early stage drug discovery. With the recent increase in available small-molecule databases, virtual high-throughput screening using physics-based molecular docking has emerged as an essential tool in assisting fast and cost-efficient lead discovery and optimization. However, the best scored docking poses are often suboptimal, resulting in incorrect screening and chemical property calculation. We address the pose classification problem by leveraging data-driven machine learning approaches to identify correct docking poses from AutoDock Vina and Glide screens. To enable effective classification of docking poses, we present two convolutional neural network approaches: a three-dimensional convolutional neural network (3D-CNN) and an attention-based point cloud network (PCN) trained on the PDBbind refined set. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed classifiers on multiple evaluation data sets including the standard PDBbind CASF-2016 benchmark data set and various compound libraries with structurally different protein targets including an ion channel data set extracted from Protein Data Bank (PDB) and an in-house KCa3.1 inhibitor data set. Our experiments show that excluding false positive docking poses using the proposed classifiers improves virtual high-throughput screening to identify novel molecules against each target protein compared to the initial screen based on the docking scores.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Autogenerating a Domain-Specific Question-Answering Data Set from a Thermoelectric Materials Database to Enable High-Performing BERT Models

We present a method for autogenerating a large domain-specific question-answering (QA) dataset from a thermoelectric materials database. We show that a small language model, BERT, once fine-tuned on this automatically generated dataset of 99,757 QA pairs about thermoelectric materials, affords better performance in the field of thermoelectric materials compared to a BERT model fine-tuned on the generic English-language QA data set, SQuAD-v2. We further show that mixing the two data sets (ours and SQuAD-v2), which have significantly different syntactic and semantic scopes, allows the BERT model to achieve even better performance. The best-performing BERT model fine-tuned on the mixed data set outperforms the models fine-tuned on the other two data sets by scoring an exact match of 67.93% and an F1 score of 72.29% when evaluated on our test data set. This has important implications as it demonstrates the ability to realize high-performing small language models, with modest computational resources, empowered by domain-specific materials data sets which can be generated according to our method.

biological databases↗

DOE OSTI2025

Beyond Optimization: Exploring Novelty Discovery in Autonomous Experiments

Autonomous experiments (AEs) are transforming how scientific research is conducted by integrating artificial intelligence with automated experimental platforms. Current AEs primarily focus on the optimization of a predefined target; while accelerating this goal, such an approach limits the discovery of unexpected or unknown physical phenomena. Here, we introduce a novel framework, INS 2 ANE (Integrated Novelty Score−Strategic Autonomous Non-Smooth Exploration), to enhance the discovery of novel phenomena in autonomous microscopy experimentation. Our method integrates two key components: (1) a novelty scoring system that evaluates the uniqueness of experimental results and (2) a strategic sampling mechanism that promotes exploration of under-sampled regions even if they appear less promising by conventional criteria. We validate this approach on a preacquired data set with a known ground truth comprising of image−spectral pairs. We further implement the process on autonomous scanning probe microscopy experiments. INS 2 ANE significantly increases the diversity of explored phenomena in comparison to conventional optimization routines, enhancing the likelihood of discovering previously unobserved phenomena. These results demonstrate the potential for autonomous microscopy experiments to enhance the scientific discovery by navigating complex experimental spaces to uncover novel phenomena.

Materials↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Power of Many: An Ensemble Approach to Spectral Similarity

Quantifying the similarity between two mass spectra─a known reference mass spectrum and an unidentified sample mass spectrum─is at the heart of compound identification workflows in gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The reference spectrum most like the sample is assigned as its identification (provided some quantitative similarity threshold is met, e.g., 80%) and thus accurately measuring similarity is essential. Significant research has gone toward developing metrics for this purpose, each of which has attempted to improve upon existing methods by incorporating GC-MS-specific information (e.g., peak ratios or retention times) or adopting various statistical and algorithmic frameworks. While this active development has led to a plethora of similarity metrics with demonstrated value across different contexts, the unfortunate consequence has been confusion surrounding which metric should be used as a global standard. No such metric is currently accepted as the standard method because different metrics have demonstrated optimal performance in different contexts. In this work, we propose an ensemble approach to spectral similarity scoring that combines the collective information from across existing similarity metrics to form an improved, globally representative similarity metric as a step toward establishing a global standard method. In conclusion, the resulting ensemble metrics are evaluated on over 88,000 spectra of varying complexity and demonstrate improved abilities to accurately rank the correct reference spectrum as the top-matching candidate for a sample relative to the rankings generated by individual similarity scores.

Carbohydrates↗

DOE OSTI2020

Grain Size Variations in the Murray Formation: Stratigraphic Evidence for Changing Depositional Environments in Gale Crater, Mars

The lowermost exposure of the Murray formation in Gale crater, Mars, was interpreted as sediment deposited in an ancient lake based on data collected by the Curiosity rover. Constraining the stratigraphic extent and duration of this environment has important implications for the paleohydrology of Gale. Insights into early Martian environments and paleofluid flow velocity can be obtained from grain size in rocks. Visual inspection of grain size is not always available for rocks investigated at field sites on Mars due to limited image coverage. But grain sizes can also be estimated from the Gini Index Mean Score, a grain-size proxy that uses point-to-point chemical variations in ChemCam Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy data. Here, new Gini Index Mean Score results indicate that the Murray formation is dominated by mudstones with grains smaller than the spatial resolution of all rover cameras. Intervals of fine to coarse sandstone also are present, some of which are verified using observations of grain size and sedimentary structures in associated images. Overall, results demonstrate that most of the Murray consists of mudstone, suggesting settling of grains from suspension in low energy depositional environments such as lakes. Some of the mudstones contain desiccation cracks indicating periods of drying with a lowering of lake water level. However, beds and lenses of cross-bedded sandstones are common at specific intervals, suggesting episodes of fluvial and possibly eolian deposition. The persistence of lacustrine deposits interspersed with fluvial deposits suggests that liquid water was sustained on the Martian surface for tens of thousands to millions of years.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pyrocumulonimbus Events Over British Columbia in 2017: An Ensemble Model Study of Parameter Sensitivities and Climate Impacts of Wildfire Smoke in the Stratosphere

Abstract The Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events over British Columbia in 2017 were observed in the lower stratosphere for about 8–10 months after the smoke injections. Several previous studies used global climate models to investigate the physical parameters for the 2017 pyroCb events, but the conclusions show strong model dependency. In this study, we use the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and complete an ensemble of runs exploring three injection parameters: smoke aerosol mass, the percentage of black carbon within the smoke aerosols, and plume injection height. Additionally, we consider the heterogeneous reaction of ozone and primary organic matter. According to the satellite daily observed aerosol optical depth (AOD), we find that the best ensemble member is the simulation with 0.4 Tg of smoke, 3% of which is black carbon, a 13.5 km smoke injection height, and a 10 −5 probability factor of the heterogeneous reaction. Besides AOD, we examine the ensemble score based on the metrics used in previous studies: the metrics of the extinction coefficient at 18 km altitude and the maximum plume height. The conclusion of the best estimate of the injection parameters for 2017 pyroCb events shows strong not only model but also evaluation metric dependency. We use the Random Forest machine learning technique to quantify the relative importance of each parameter in accurately simulating the 2017 pyroCb events and find that the injection height is the most critical feature, no matter which metric is used to score the ensemble members.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Systematic Validation of Ensemble Cloud-Process Simulations using Polarimetric Radar Observations and Simulator over the NASA Wallops Flight Facility

The BiLateral Operational Storm-Scale Observation and Modeling (BLOSSOM) project was initiated to establish a long-term supersite to improve understanding of cloud physical states and processes as well as to support satellite and climate model programs over the WFF site via a bilateral approach of storm-scale observations and process modeling. This study highlights a noble systematic validation framework of the BLOSSOM ensemble cloud-process simulations through mixed-phase, light-rain, and deep-convective precipitation cases. The framework consists of creating a domain-shifted ensemble of large-scale forcing datasets, and configuring and performing cloud-process simulations with three different bulk microphysics schemes. Validation uses NASA S-band dual-POLarimetric radar (NPOL) observations in the form of statistical composites and skill scores via a polarimetric radar simulator and newly developed CfRad Data tool (CfRAD). While the simulations capture the overall structures of the reflectivity composites, polarimetric signals are still poorly simulated, mainly due to a lack of representation of ice microphysics diversity in shapes, orientation distributions, and their complex mixtures. Despite the limitation, this new ensemble-based validation framework demonstrates that 1) no particular forcing or microphysics scheme outperforms the rest and 2) the skill scores of coarse- and fine-resolution ensemble simulations with different domain-shifted forcing and microphysics schemes are highly correlated with each other with no clear improvement. On the other hand, this suggests that coarse-resolution ensemble simulations are relevant for selecting the best meteorological forcing and microphysics scheme before conducting computationally demanding large eddy simulations (LESs) in support of aircraft and satellite instrument development as well as cloud-precipitation-convection parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗