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DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the impact of climate change on rainfall-triggered landslides: a case study in California

Landslides are widespread natural hazards which take a heavy toll on lives, property, and infrastructure each year. In January 2023 and 2024, widespread landslides occurred in California as a result of extreme winter precipitation. Estimating the regional evolution of landslide hazard in a changing climate is essential for adaptation planning and risk mitigation efforts. The complex effects of climate change on landslide hazard, however, are poorly understood. Here, we use climate and landslide observations to develop a novel data-driven approach for landslide susceptibility assessment under historical and future climate conditions. We apply this framework to investigate the evolution of landslide susceptibility in California and its impacts on the roadway system based on downscaled climate projections under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. On average, the results indicate an increase in landslide susceptibility through 2100 in regions where historical susceptibility is moderate to very high. Although the spatio-temporal variations in landslide susceptibility are sensitive to climate model uncertainties in predicting extreme rainfall, the direst impacts are largely circumvented in lower emission scenarios.

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effects of slope steepness and cross-slope wind speed on fire spreading behavior for various vegetation

Wildland fire behavior is significantly influenced by environmental factors such as slope steepness, wind speed, and fuel type. Understanding these interactions is critical for improving predictive models and fire management. This study explores how slope steepness and cross-slope wind speed influence fire spread dynamics in various fuel bed types. Simulations are conducted using a physics-based wildland fire model, HIGRAD/FIRETEC, across six slope angles (0–50 %), four cross-slope wind speeds (4–10 m s –1 ), and three fuel bed types (grass, shrubland, and forest). Representative cases are additionally compared with FARSITE fireline evolution. Fire behavior is categorized into distinct propagation types based on spread characteristics and analyzed. The fire propagation angle, which indicates deviation from the wind direction, generally increases with steeper slopes and decreases with stronger cross-slope winds. Secondary upslope propagation is observed in shrubland under moderate slopes, while secondary downwind propagation occurs in all fuel beds at higher wind speeds. These findings highlight fire spread characteristics that differ from predictions by traditional models like Rothermel’s. By capturing complex propagation patterns and dynamics, this study demonstrates the value of a physics-based, atmosphere-fire coupled model for accurate wildland fire prediction. Incorporating secondary propagations and the influence of fuel bed complexities into predictive models can improve the accuracy of fire spread forecasts, enabling more effective fire management and risk mitigation efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Innovations in underground hydrogen storage with multiphysics simulations, optimization, and monitoring: A review

Underground Hydrogen Storage (UHS) is a promising solution for large-scale energy storage and a critical component in advancing low-carbon energy system. Ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS necessitates a comprehensive understanding of multiphysical interactions driven by cyclic pore fluid pressure fluctuations and coupled physicochemical processes. Here, this review examines the key geomechanical responses in UHS, including rock property variations under cyclic loading, fracture evolution and propagation, reservoir stress sensitivity, and fault stability. It also explores the impact of geochemical and microbial reactions on geomechanical characteristics. We provide an in-depth analysis of Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical-Chemical (THMC) coupled numerical simulations, highlighting their potential for future multi-scale modeling. Limitations of current machine learning (ML) approaches in addressing UHS challenges are highlighted, emphasizing the need for innovative ML-based methodologies. Operational strategies for hydrogen injection and production are reviewed, focusing on safety, efficiency, and economic viability. The necessity for multi-objective optimization (MOO) to balance storage efficiency, risk mitigation, and cost-effectiveness is also discussed. Current monitoring technologies are evaluated to ensure safe and efficient UHS operations. Finally, this review identifies critical knowledge gaps and underscores the importance of advancing geomechanical understanding under multiphysics-coupling. We highlight the need for ML-driven multiphysics theories, enhanced modeling techniques, and robust optimization strategies to improve UHS performance. This study serves as a comprehensive reference for future research and the large-scale implementation of UHS systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Networked Microgrid Topology Reconfiguration to Promote Fairness in Proactive Load Shedding

Increasing occurrences of natural disasters and grid emergency events consistently challenge the safe and reliable operations of power systems. During such emergency situations, system operators may proactively shed load to mitigate risks. However, uncoordinated implementation of load shedding may disrupt electricity supply and even lead to cascading failures. Meanwhile, it is crucial to address potential biases affecting different customers when executing load shedding. This paper addresses the dynamic topology reconfiguration problem for networked microgrids with distributed energy resources under emergency conditions. Specifically, we propose a novel rolling-horizon optimization model that integrates fairness-aware constraints into the networked microgrid topology reconfiguration. Unlike existing approaches that focus solely on efficiency or apply fairness considerations in static settings, our method explicitly incorporates temporal fairness constraints to restrict repeated or excessive load curtailment for load blocks. Moreover, the fairness-aware constraints are specifically developed for the context of dynamic networked microgrid topology reconfiguration, and are designed to be convex or amenable to linear reformulations, which offers a more tractable alternative to traditional models with non-convex formulations. Numerical studies on a modified IEEE 13-bus system and a larger-sized SMART-DS networked microgrid system demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm towards more fairness-aware networked microgrid topology reconfiguration decision-making.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Disruption modelling for engineering and physics design of ST-E1 fusion power plant

Plasma disruptions represent a critical challenge for high-performance tokamak operations, as they can compromise machine integrity and reduce operational availability. Although future fusion devices essentially need to incorporate strategies to minimise disruption occurrence, complete avoidance remains unattainable. Consequently, assessing and characterising unmitigated disruption consequences is fundamental for the design and qualification of next-generation fusion power plants. This work supports the pre-conceptual design of ST-E1, a low aspect-ratio Tokamak Fusion Power Plant developed by Tokamak Energy Ltd., by presenting a comprehensive disruption modelling approach applied across different design stages. The methodology integrates both physics and engineering considerations to evaluate the impact of disruptions on machine performance and structural integrity. From an engineering perspective, several ST-E1 layout options were analysed to investigate the electromagnetic response of key components under disruption-induced loads, enabling comparison between alternative design solutions. On the physics side, a broad set of disruption scenarios was explored, scanning operational space parameters, plasma-material interactions, and associated thermal loads. Furthermore, the study examined variations in disruption behaviour arising from different reference equilibria, focusing on a range starting from Double Null to Single Null configurations, reflecting the increasing up-down asymmetry consequences. The results reveal significant contrasts in plasma dynamics and structures electromagnetic behaviour between configurations, highlighting the importance of disruption modelling in guiding design choices. These analyses have proven instrumental in shaping ST-E1 development, offering critical insights for mitigating risks and optimising future fusion power plant designs.

Borowiec, Katarzyna [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000335911739↗

DOE OSTI2022

Opportunities and data requirements for data-driven prognostics and health management in liquid hydrogen storage systems

During the past decade, Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) has become an important set of tools in various areas of industry and academic reliability engineering. PHM consists of a variety of mathematical and computational methods used to support data-driven decision-making to increase the safety, availability, and reliability of complex engineering systems. In particular, PHM can provide crucial insight into reliability and safety design improvements for developing technologies where historical performance and failure data are limited. This is the case of hydrogen fueling and storage technologies. This work presents a high-level approach for designing data-driven PHM applications for bulk liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ) storage systems for hydrogen fueling stations. This paper addresses core aspects of the design, development, and implementation of data-driven PHM applications that can improve the reliability assessment of hydrogen components. The analysis focuses on the relationship between data availability and diagnostic/prognostic capabilities; potential challenges; and integration schemes for current risk mitigation measures. We identify potential condition-monitoring data sources for key components in an LH 2 storage system, including storage tanks, piping, and pumps. Further, we determine that the short-term goals for the implementation of data-driven models in PHM frameworks in hydrogen systems should focus on developing adequate data collection and analysis strategies, as well as exploring the effect on reliability, safety, and regulations for hydrogen systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Initial design concepts for solid boron injection in ITER

As part of ITER’s consideration to change its first wall material from beryllium to tungsten, the ITER Organization has proposed studying the feasibility of real-time solid boron injection (SBI) into the plasma to coat the walls and divertor to supplement glow discharge boronization (GDB). Boron deposits getter oxygen and reduce sputtering of tungsten from plasma facing components (PFCs). Particularly in areas with significant plasma wall interactions, boron coatings are expected to be short-lived under high performance plasma conditions. The proposed SBI system aims to maintain boron layers in these areas to avoid excessive radiation from tungsten in the plasma as a risk mitigation to ensure ITER will be able to reach and sustain Q = 10 conditions. The system will be used sparingly, as redeposition of boron can lead to significant tritium retention, which must be minimized in ITER to comply with nuclear safety concerns. SBI is proposed to limit and precisely control the amount of boron injected in real-time during plasma operation. Here, some of the design requirements and initial concepts for an SBI system in ITER are presented based on previous results carried out with SBI systems on a number of tokamaks and stellarators around the world. Previous results using SBI systems installed by PPPL have injected boron particles from 5 µm–2 mm diameter at calibrated rates of 2–200 mg/s in real-time during plasma operation on AUG, DIII-D, EAST, KSTAR, LHD, TFTR, WEST, and W7-X, leading to improved wall conditions with reduced plasma impurity concentrations and radiated power and improved plasma performance. The boron is ionized in the plasma edge and then deposited on plasma-wetted surfaces. On AUG, EAST and WEST reduced tungsten sputtering sources were observed following several discharges with SBI. Extrapolation of these SBI results are presented to estimate the amount of boron needed for wall conditioning in ITER. Real-time SBI control requirements and plasma operation scenarios for ITER are also described.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Subscale maturation of advanced reactor technologies (SMART): A path forward for nuclear thermal propulsion fuel and reactor development

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) systems are actively being developed for future crewed missions to Mars. NTP systems excel in missions where both high thrust and high specific impulse are required, but modern NTP systems currently do not have a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) high enough for use in crewed space exploration. TRLs are used to demonstrate the level of rigor with which a component/system has been tested/demonstrated for its intended use. While space systems technology in general must be qualified as a unit, nuclear technology must be first demonstrated to meet qualification level requirements both at the fuel (component) level and the reactor (subsystem) level. Here, in this paper, historic NTP development programs are surveyed to identify a testing and development strategy that can be effectively implemented to allow for NTP reactor development. Based on this strategy, required facilities to enable such activities are identified. Current domestic experimental capabilities to support NTP qualification are limited to separate effects testing of individual components. Separate effects testing is found extensively in historic NTP development efforts but is not sufficient for full fuel and reactor qualification. Combined effects testing allows for an accurate assessment of fuel performance but is not achievable for NTP conditions in existing facilities. Assessment of historic development programs suggests that an intermediate, subscale test facility is necessary to advance NTP TRLs. A solution to meet this need is proposed, namely the Subscale Maturation of Advanced Reactor Technologies (SMART) facility. SMART will mitigate risk to NTP development by enabling performance and reactor physics demonstrations of NTP subsystems. A SMART facility could be built by modifying existing nuclear test facilities, which may potentially enable schedule and cost savings. To pursue reactor qualification beyond the subscale, a new ground test facility will be necessary. This ground test facility should be developed concurrently with SMART to allow for the facility to be operational in time for expedited NTP engine demonstration.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Applying U.S. metal fuel experience to new fuel designs for fast reactors

With the increasing interest in small modular reactors or microreactors, developers are working to design and submit licensing approval requests of U–10Zr-fueled fast reactors. The developers and their proponents cite prior metal fuel experience (worldwide, but U.S. experience in particular for many developers) as the motivation and justification for their reactor concepts. The experience with metal fuel deployment in sodium-cooled fast reactors as well as the underlying irradiation testing database, provide a suitable basis for analytically justifying the use of metal fuel in new reactors. The evolution of metal fuel design and capability illustrates the importance of key fuel design parameters to consider in new applications of the prior experience: fuel smeared density, plenum-to-fuel volume ratio, the ratio of cladding radius to thickness, fuel composition, and cladding and duct materials. In-service operating and deployment conditions to be considered include fuel linear heat generation rate, fuel temperature, cladding temperature, peak burnup and peak fast fluence. Fuel designs and in-service conditions that are bounded by the database and experience are most easily addressed, but deviations from those previous parameters and conditions can be addressed by considering impacts on previously established behavior and applying other mitigating conservatisms, as appropriate. Here, the authors recommend any new deployment proceed with fuel surveillance and monitoring to mitigate risk, application of conservative measures to address uncertainties, and a fuel qualification program that addresses a range of in-service operating conditions with production fuel. The work reported should be of interest to students and regulators unfamiliar with metal fuel in fast reactors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Process and environmental safety of thermochemical conversion of biomass

Biomass presents a promising opportunity for converting waste into valuable energy, fuels, and chemicals through various thermochemical processes, including hydrothermal carbonization, hydrothermal liquefaction, pyrolysis, gasification, and combustion. However, these processes operate under extreme conditions, introducing significant safety hazards that necessitate meticulous management to prevent accidents. This review discusses potential hazards, risk mitigation strategies, and safety management practices, emphasizing the importance of integrated safety measures into the design and operation of these processes. It also highlights the critical need for robust safety engineering and environmental management strategies tailored to each thermo-chemical process. As these processes transition from laboratory to industrial scale, there is an imperative to develop a clear and concise pathway for emerging industries to achieve regulatory compliance, achieve safety certification, and enable effective stewardship of potential fugitive emissions. By addressing safety and environmental concerns, stakeholders can optimize economic benefits, rural development, and achieve sustained domestic energy generation benefits offered by biomass conversion technologies. Further research on plant design optimization, operational safety, environmental evaluation standardization, and innovative waste management solutions will support the safe and effective scaling of these technologies, ultimately contributing to sustainable management and resource recovery.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Factors influencing recent trends in retail electricity prices in the United States

This study analyzes the primary drivers of recent state-level trends in U.S. retail electricity prices. We summarize pricing trends, explore descriptive relationships, and employ regression models to quantify the influence of various factors. Although the recent national rise in retail prices has largely tracked inflation, state-level trends vary widely. We identify a number of factors that explain trends in subsets of states. States with the greatest price increases typically exhibited shrinking customer loads—partially linked to growth in net metered behind-the-meter solar—and had renewables portfolio standards (RPS) in concert with relatively costly incremental renewable energy supplies. By contrast, recent utility-scale wind and solar deployment that occurred outside RPS programs (but that benefited from tax incentives) had no discernible impact on increased retail prices. Hurricanes, storms and wildfires also contributed to sizable price increases in some states, most notably in California, where wildfire risk mitigation and liability insurance were major cost drivers. Fluctuations in natural gas prices—particularly following the onset of the Ukraine-Russia war—further contributed to sharp price increases through 2022–2023 in many states, with moderation in 2024. The relative influence of these factors varies across states and over time, and relationships may change in the future. Nonetheless, the findings underscore the diverse set of price determinants and highlight the need for continued research to inform effective policy and ensure customer affordability.

Customer load↗

DOE OSTI2025

Antimicrobial Peptides Can Facilitate Whole Blood Safety from Bacteria: A Proof of Concept

With continuous improvements to blood donor deferrals and the availability of sensitive tests for donation screening for infectious agents, bacterial contamination of whole blood (WB) and blood components stored for transfusion is a rare event. Nonetheless, it still occurs and remains a transfusion-associated risk in terms of septic transfusion reactions (STRs) and transfusion-transmitted bacterial infections with morbidity and mortality outcomes. One of the risk mitigation strategies for bacterial contamination is to implement treatment with currently available proactive pathogen reduction technologies (PRTs) for these transfusion products. Here, as a proof of concept, we tested two recently developed unique cationic antimicrobial peptides (AMPs; D-CONGA and D-CONGA-Q7) for WB safety from bacterial contamination. In this study, WB was inoculated with Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus epidermidis and treated with the two peptides to evaluate their bactericidal efficacy. The results demonstrated that D-CONGA and D-CONGA-Q7 exhibit potent inhibitory activity against the bacteria with a minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) range of 4–8 and 1–8 μM, respectively, depending on the bacterial species tested. Time-kill kinetics further confirmed that the peptides exhibit bactericidal efficacy at 8 μM by achieving a 5-log 10 reduction (99.999%) of the bacterial load in WB with a time-dependent killing profile. Furthermore, even at 20 μM, the AMPs did not negatively impact hemolysis or hemostatic properties. We have further demonstrated using a cationic exchange resin that the cationic AMPs can be separated and removed from WB after the peptide treatments. During 35-day WB storage at 2–8 °C, 4 μM D-CONGA-Q7 one-time treatment prevented S. epidermidis growth and preserved WB quality and integrity. Overall, the results described here provide the first proof of concept that certain AMPs, such as D-CONGA and D-CONGA-Q7, can facilitate WB safety from bacteria during storage.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Rapid Mineral Precipitation During Shear Fracturing of Carbonate-Rich Shales

Target subsurface reservoirs for emerging low-carbon energy technologies and geologic carbon sequestration typically have low permeability and thus rely heavily on fluid transport through natural and induced fracture networks. Sustainable development of these systems requires deeper understanding of how geochemically mediated deformation impacts fracture microstructure and permeability evolution, particularly with respect to geochemical reactions between pore fluids and the host rock. Here, a series of triaxial direct shear experiments was designed to evaluate how fractures generated at subsurface conditions respond to penetration of reactive fluids with a focus on the role of mineral precipitation. Calcite-rich shale cores were directly sheared under 3.5 MPa confining pressure using BaCl 2 -rich solutions as a working fluid. Experiments were conducted within an X-ray computed tomography (xCT) scanner to capture 4-D evolution of fracture geometry and precipitate growth. Three shear tests evidenced nonuniform precipitation of barium carbonates (BaCO 3 ) along through-going fractures, where the extent of precipitation increased with increasing calcite content. Precipitates were strongly localized within fracture networks due to mineral, geochemical, and structural heterogeneities and generally concentrated in smaller apertures where rock:water ratios were highest. The combination of elevated fluid saturation and reactive surface area created in freshly activated fractures drove near-immediate mineral precipitation that led to an 80% permeability reduction and significant flow obstruction in the most reactive core. While most previous studies have focused on mixing-induced precipitation, this work demonstrates that fluid–rock interactions can trigger precipitation-induced permeability alterations that can initiate or mitigate risks associated with subsurface energy systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Can Restoring Tidal Wetlands Reduce Estuarine Nuisance Flooding of Coasts Under Future Sea‐Level Rise?

Wetland restoration is an increasingly popular nature‐based method for flood risk mitigation in coastal communities. In this study, we present a novel method using hydrodynamic modeling and harmonic analysis to quantify wetlands' ability to reduce future nuisance flooding. The method leverages a hydrodynamic model calibrated to present day data and was run for a range of future sea‐level rise (SLR) and wetland restoration scenarios to quantify changes to tidal harmonic amplitudes and phases. The harmonic constituents are used to generate water surface elevations over a time period of interest (e.g., one year) and compared to critical exceedance thresholds such as levee elevations. Then, changes to nuisance flooding are calculated by counting the number of hours critical thresholds are exceeded under different SLR and wetland restoration scenarios. We applied the method to Coos Bay, Oregon, USA as a test case. We found restoration reduces the number of hours nuisance flooding occurs in downtown Coos Bay from 15 hr (present day conditions) to 0 hr (fully restored condition) under median SLR (82 cm by 2100). Restoration had spatially variable impacts on reducing peak flood elevations with minimal impacts near the estuary mouth and greatest impact 32 km inland. The effectiveness of restoration was heavily dependent on future SLR. Restoration was maximally effective in 2050 under all SLR scenarios, less effective in 2100 under median SLR, and not effective under high SLR. Modeling results suggest increased tidal prism and accommodation space are driving restoration‐associated reductions in tidal amplitudes.

Brand, Matthew W. [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Ro↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nutrient Replenishment by Turbulent Mixing in Suspended Macroalgal Farms

Abstract This study uses large eddy simulations to investigate nutrient transport and uptake in suspended macroalgal farms. Various farm configurations and oceanic forcing conditions are examined, with the farm base located near the nutricline depth. We introduce the Damkohler number Da to quantify the balance between nutrient consumption by macroalgae uptake and supply by farm‐enhanced nutrient transport. Most cases exhibit low Da , indicating that farm‐generated turbulence drives sufficient upward nutrient fluxes, supporting macroalgae growth. High Da and starvation may occur in fully grown farm blocks, a configuration that generates the weakest turbulence, particularly when combined with densely planted macroalgae or weak flow conditions. Flow stagnation within the farm due to macroalgae drag may constrain the uptake efficiency and further increase the starvation risk. Mitigation strategies involve timely harvesting, avoiding dense macroalgae canopies, and selecting farm locations with robust ocean currents and waves. This study provides insights for sustainable macroalgal farm planning.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Lithium inventory tracking as a non-destructive battery evaluation and monitoring method

Tracking the active lithium (Li) inventory in an electrode shows the true state of a Li battery, akin to a fuel gauge for an engine. However, non-destructive Li inventory tracking is currently unavailable. Here, in this work, we used the theoretical capacity of a transition metal oxide to convert capacity into a Li inventory analysis. The Li inventory in electrodes was tracked reliably to show how battery formulations and test methods affect performance. Contrary to capacity, Li inventory tracking reveals stoichiometric variations near the electrode–electrolyte interface. Verifiable results rationalized differences in measurements, clarifying and reducing interferences from cell formulations and experimental manipulations. By tracing four variables from formation to end-of-life, we characterize electrode and cell performance with a thermodynamic framework. Accurate rationalization of subtle differences in Li inventory utilization promises precise battery engineering, evaluation, failure analysis and risk mitigation. The method could be applicable from cell design optimization and fabrication to battery management, improving battery performance and reliability.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cell degradation quantification—a performance metric-based approach

A safe and reliable battery operation needs effective diagnostic tools. A quantitative failure analysis (FA) to enable cell qualification and quantify its effectiveness for reliable and safe operation of rechargeable Li batteries (RLB) is shown here. The method can identify and quantify potential failure based on the state of charge (SOC) under any operating conditions. A precise and accurate electrochemical analytic diagnosis (eCAD) of 14 rechargeable Li || NMC622 cells of the same build are used as an example. The FA by eCAD can quantitatively decipher good, bad and ugly cells in cycle aging. The cell qualification is based on thermodynamic SOC, not experimental conditions. The method provides a quantitative failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to reveal diverse “dead Li” formation that affects the reversibility of the Li anode and charge retention in the cell. This cell qualification method highlights the potential to improve cell quality for safe operation, with strong implications for early fault detection, FA, risk mitigation, state estimation and life prediction for reliable and safe RLB operations

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven background model for the CUORE experiment

Here, we present the model we developed to reconstruct the CUORE radioactive background based on the analysis of an experimental exposure of 1038.4 kg yr. The data reconstruction relies on a simultaneous Bayesian fit applied to energy spectra over a broad energy range. The high granularity of the CUORE detector, together with the large exposure and extended stable operations, allow for an in-depth exploration of both spatial and time dependence of backgrounds. We achieve high sensitivity to both bulk and surface activities of the materials of the setup, detecting levels as low as 10 nBq kg −1 and 0.1 nBq cm −2 , respectively. We compare the contamination levels we extract from the background model with prior radio-assay data, which informs future background risk mitigation strategies. The results of this background model play a crucial role in constructing the background budget for the CUPID experiment as it will exploit the same CUORE infrastructure.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗