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At least 397 records · Page 22

Pull Force Evaluation of CCS Insulated End Caps

Insulated end caps installed on DC pins of Combined Charging System (CCS) inlets have been identified as potential debris sources within electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) connectors, increasing the risk of electric shock and fire hazards. Although standards such as IEC 62196-1:2022 specify mechanical pull-force requirements for these end caps, it remains unclear whether these requirements provide adequate robustness under real-world conditions. To address this concern, the National Charging Experience (ChargeX) Consortium's Hardware Task Force conducted evaluations of insulated end caps used in OEM CCS inlets. This study assesses the performance of insulated end caps used in OEM CCS inlets, specifically those installed on DC pins, using the procedures defined in IEC 62196-1:2022 (Section Sign) 26.7 and SAE J3400, supplemented by additional experimental conditioning. To ensure relevance to real-world conditions, NLR collaborated with charging network operators (CNOs) to guide the selection of charging inlet samples. Material analyses of the insulated end cap samples were conducted to confirm that the tested materials reflected the types and properties commonly observed in the field. The selected samples underwent temperature and humidity conditioning followed by pull-force testing to evaluate the end-cap integrity. Although SAE J3400 inlets were not directly tested due to limited diversity in available field data, the underlying end-cap principles between CCS and SAE J3400 are comparable, allowing the study's insights to be relevant to both technologies. Overall, this study provides a structured evaluation framework to inform potential refinements to mechanical pull-force requirements in charging standards.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Consequence analyses of sabotage-induced radiological releases in high-temperature helium-cooled prismatic microreactors

Here, this study analyzes the radiological dose consequences of sabotage-induced accidents at three high-temperature helium-cooled prismatic microreactors (HTPMs) with thermal power ratings of 1, 10, and 50 MWt. Each HTPM employs uranium oxycarbide tristructural isotropic fuel enriched to 19.75 wt% high-assay low-enriched uranium. Simulations were conducted to estimate reactor core inventory at the point of fuel discharge––when the effective multiplication factor reduced to less than 1––representing peak radionuclide inventory. Postulated sabotage scenarios leading to reactor shutdown were analyzed at two intervals: immediately post-shutdown (0 h) and 3 days after shutdown using the SCALE code for radionuclide inventories and the RASCAL tool for dose consequences. Results show that although HTPMs benefit from inherent safety features and robust fuel design, radiological consequences scale with reactor power because of increased source term inventories. Smaller microreactors exhibited proportionally lower dose consequences. To support the economic and regulatory feasibility of microreactor deployment, this study emphasizes the value of a risk-informed, performance-based approach, as supported by regulations like 10 CFR Parts 100 and 53 in the United States. Microreactor developers should perform site-specific assessments of potential sabotage or low-probability, high-consequence events, especially when considering minimal on-site or full off-site emergency response.

Consequence↗

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Important Roles of Thiols in Methylmercury Uptake and Translocation by Rice Plants

We report the bioaccumulation of the neurotoxin methylmercury (MeHg) in rice is a significant concern due to its potential risk to humans. Thiols have been known to affect MeHg bioavailability in microorganisms, but how thiols influence MeHg accumulation in rice plants remains unknown. Here, we investigated effects of common low-molecular-weight thiols, including cysteine (Cys), glutathione (GSH), and penicillamine (PEN), on MeHg uptake and translocation by rice plants. Results show that rice roots can rapidly take up MeHg, and this process is influenced by the types and concentrations of thiols in the system. The presence of Cys facilitated MeHg uptake by roots and translocation to shoots, while GSH could only promote MeHg uptake, but not translocation, by roots. Conversely, PEN significantly inhibited MeHg uptake and translocation to shoots. Using labeled 13 Cys assays, we also found that MeHg uptake was coupled with Cys accumulation in rice roots. Moreover, analyses of comparative transcriptomics revealed that key genes associated with metallothionein and SULTR transporter families may be involved in MeHg uptake. These findings provide new insights into the uptake and translocation of MeHg in rice plants and suggest potential roles of thiol attributes in affecting MeHg bioavailability and bioaccumulation in rice.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of survival estimates generated from tracking downstream migrating juvenile sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) with a miniature acoustic telemetry tag

Fish that undertake juvenile migration pass through habitats that vary in mortality risk. The ability to identify regions of persistently low survival would improve fishery management. We conducted a field study combined with predictive modeling of survival in downstream migrating juvenile sea lamprey using a new micro-acoustic telemetry tag designed for implantation into small, slender-bodied fishes. Detection data were collected from eight receivers placed across a coastal riverine–wetland–lake complex. Juvenile sea lamprey initiated downstream movement near nautical twilight, stopped frequently, and were more likely to move during high river discharge. Estimated survival was highest in the riverine reach, declined through the river–wetland complex, and dropped precipitously in the drowned rivermouth lake. However, the high transmission rate and resulting short battery life of the microtransmitters (as configured) likely resulted in missed detections in the lower reaches. Simulation analyses suggested survival estimation could be improved by increasing the number of tagged lamprey and staggering release locations. We offer practical recommendations for the use of this new transmitter in field studies with small anguilliform fish.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Locus coeruleus catecholamines link neuroticism and vulnerability to tau pathology in aging

Higher neuroticism is a risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD), and is implicated in disordered stress responses. The locus coeruleus (LC)-catecholamine system is activated during perceived threat and is a centerpiece of developing models of the pathophysiology of AD, as it is the first brain region to develop abnormal tau. We examined relationships among the "Big 5" personality traits, LC catecholamine synthesis capacity measured with [ 18 F]Fluoro-m-tyrosine PET, and tau burden measured with [ 18 F]Flortaucipir PET in cognitively normal older adults (n = 47). β-amyloid (Aβ) status was determined using [ 11 C]Pittsburgh compound B PET (n = 14 Aβ positive). Lower LC catecholamine synthesis capacity was associated with higher neuroticism, more depressive symptoms as measured by the Geriatric Depression Scale, and higher amygdala tau-PET binding. Exploratory analyses with other personality traits revealed that low trait conscientiousness was also related to both lower LC catecholamine synthesis capacity, and more depressive symptoms. A significant indirect path linked both high neuroticism and low conscientiousness to greater amygdala tau burden via their mutual association with low LC catecholamine synthesis capacity. Together, these findings reveal LC catecholamine synthesis capacity to be a promising marker of affective health and pathology burden in aging, and identifies candidate neurobiological mechanisms for the effect of personality on increased vulnerability to dementia.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Source Contributions to Fine Particulate Matter and Attributable Mortality in India and the Surrounding Region

Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is a leading mortality risk factor in India and the surrounding region of South Asia. This study evaluates the contribution of emission sectors and fuels to PM 2.5 mass for 29 states in India and 6 surrounding countries (Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar) by combining source-specific emission estimates, stretched grid simulations from a chemical transport model, high resolution hybrid PM 2.5 , and disease-specific mortality estimates. We find that 1.02 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.78-1.26) million deaths in South Asia attributable to ambient PM 2.5 in 2019 were primarily from three leading sectors: residential combustion (28%), industry (15%), and power generation (12%). Solid biofuel is the leading combustible fuel contributing to the PM 2.5 -attributable mortality (31%), followed by coal (17%), and oil and gas (14%). State-level analyses reveal higher residential combustion contributions (35%-39%) in states (Delhi, Uttar-Pradesh, Haryana) with high ambient PM 2.5 (>95 µg/m 3 ). The combined mortality burden associated with residential combustion (ambient) and household air pollution (HAP) in India is 0.72 million (95% CI:0.54-0.89) (68% attributable to HAP, 32% attributable to residential combustion). Our results illustrate the potential to reduce PM 2.5 mass and improve population health by reducing emissions from traditional energy sources across multiple sources in South Asia.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Database of pharmacokinetic time-series data and parameters for 144 environmental chemicals

Time courses of compound concentrations in plasma are used in chemical safety analysis to evaluate the relationship between external administered doses and internal tissue exposures. This type of experimental data is rarely available for the thousands of non-pharmaceutical chemicals to which people may potentially be unknowingly exposed but is necessary to properly assess the risk of such exposures. In vitro assays and in silico models are often used to craft an understanding of a chemical’s pharmacokinetics; however, the certainty of the quantitative application of these estimates for chemical safety evaluations cannot be determined without in vivo data for external validation. To address this need, we present a public database of chemical time-series concentration data from 567 studies in humans or test animals for 144 environmentally-relevant chemicals and their metabolites (187 analytes total). All major administration routes are incorporated, with concentrations measured in blood/plasma, tissues, and excreta. We also include calculated pharmacokinetic parameters for some studies, and a bibliography of additional source documents to support future extraction of time-series. In addition to pharmacokinetic model calibration and validation, these data may be used for analyses of diferential chemical distribution across chemicals, species, doses, or routes, and for meta-analyses on pharmacokinetic studies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Convergence of Public-Private Benefits in Denver: Surveys and Analyses to Inform Urban Mobility-, Energy-, Infrastructure- and Behavior-Related Innovation: Preprint

Cities, public transit agencies, and new private ride hailing services seek to understand emerging traveler dynamics, the shifting demographics of urban travelers,and new energy-efficient mobility opportunities. This includes exploring how new infrastructure investments, public and private mobility services, and smart-phone mobility apps are reshaping behaviors, demands (e.g. mobility-on-demand services), travel experiences and energy-efficient urban travel preferences. Currently, cities and metropolitan regions are providing and experimenting with many new mobility options, technologies, and personalized information services at the intersection of urban mobility, energy, and infrastructure systems (e.g., new commuter rail). To date, technology alone has not been able to crack the nut of 'creating faster trip times, less congestion, safer streets, and cleaner air for its citizens through fewer cars on the road'. This paper focuses on this gap by offering new concepts and potential for integrated approaches. Accommodating more vehicles miles traveled in cities, without increases in person miles traveled (PMT), could be costly, generating: 1) tremendous demands for new infrastructure, land, road space, materials, and energy; 2) higher traffic fatality risks; and 3) worsening air quality. Therefore, this study focuses on reducing single occupancy vehicle use by enhancing integrated mobility, helping transit and ridehailing increase occupancy in ways that also reduce energy use, and improve quality of life for urban travelers and communities. This study focuses on a survey of urban travelers in Denver, as a representative case study for metropolitan regions experiencing rapid growth, ageing populations, increased urban sprawl, traffic-related delays, and inefficient energy use per PMT.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Development and Demonstration of a Risk-Informed Approach to the Regulatory Required Fuel Reload Safety Analysis

The United States (U.S.) nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to maintain regulatory-required levels of safety while ensuring economic competitiveness to stay in business. Safety remains a key parameter for all aspects related to the operation of light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) and can be achieved more economically by using a risk-informed ecosystem such as that being developed by the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. The LWRS Program is promoting a wide range of research and development (R&D) activities with the goal to maximize both the safety and economically efficient performance of NPPs through improved scientific understanding, especially given that many plants are considering second license renewal. The RISA Pathway has two main goals: (1) the deployment of methodologies and technologies that enable better representation of safety margins and the factors that contribute to cost and safety; and (2) the development of advanced applications that enable cost-effective plant operation. The plant reload optimization framework development project aims to build an artificial intelligence, i.e., Genetic Algorithm (GA), based reactor core designing tool taking into account reactor safety and fuel performance analyses.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are exploring hidden geothermal resources in the U.S.A. and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many processes and parameters control geothermal exploration and energy production from geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions. Sparse and multi-scale characteristics of these datasets prohibit properly leveraging these datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. To address these necessities, ML-based geothermal resources exploration and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tools have been developed. The exploration tool is called GeoThermalCloud and EGS design tool is called GeoDT-ML. GeoThermalCloud (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. Also, it enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. Alternatively, GeoDT-ML (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS) is an ML-based alternative to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast, simplified multi-physics solver to evaluate EGS project designs in uncertain geologic systems. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. It is a faster and simpler version of GeoDT. To make this project a success, we used capabilities of LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing. We analyzed eight datasets of the U.S.A. using GeothermalCloud and demonstrated potential highly prospective geothermal resources and identified key factors defining highly prospective sites. The first data set includes 44 locations in southwest New Mexico and 18 geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, geothermal, geochemical attributes. We defined low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems and discovered a new highly prospective site. The second data set analyzed 18 shallow water chemistry attributes at 14,342 locations in the Great Basin. It demarcated modestly, moderately, and highly prospective sites including key attributes for each type of prospectivity. The third data set analyzed Utah FORGE data including satellite (InSAR), geophysical (gravity, seismic), geochemical, and geothermal attributes. Here, we performed prospectivity analysis to identify future drilling locations using geological, geochemical, and geophysical attributes. Maps of temperature at depth and heat flow are constructed based on the available data. Prospectivity maps were generated, and drilling locations were proposed for future geothermal field exploration. The fourth data set analyzed 21 attributes at 120 locations in Tularosa Basin, New Mexico; data comes from past play fairway analyses in this region. ML analyses identified geothermal signatures associated with modestly, moderately, and highly hydrothermal systems. We also defined dominant attributes and spatial distribution of the geothermal signatures. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth datasets include Tohatchi Springs, New Mexico, Hawaii, Brady site, Nevada, and EGS Collab, respectively. Moreover, we coupled GeothermalCloud and magnetotellurics data to pinpoint drilling locations for developing geothermal projects in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. GeothermalCloud found potential prospective locations for geothermal resources near White Sands Missile Range and McGregor Range at Fort Bliss. Magnetotellurics data determined the potential depth (~1800m) of geothermal prospects at McGregor Range based on apparent resistivity structures/layers in the subsurface. The McGregor Range consists of three resistivity layers and two resistivity structures. Magnetotellurics data also helps identify that the western portion of the McGregor Range has thick and low-resistivity earth materials. The low resistivity to the west is most likely for a fault system. Assuming temperature is consistent with a geothermal reservoir, the west-central part of the McGregor Range has the highest geothermal potential because of the increase in porosity and associated permeability attributed to the interpreted fault system. Also, we devised a coupling strategy between a process model and GeothermalCloud to characterize hydrogeological conditions and geothermal conditions, respectively. The process model characterizes hydrogeological and geothermal conditions on highly prospective geothermal sites provided by GeothermalCloud. We developed a physics-informed neural network (PINN) version of the Burns equation that can be easily coupled with GeothermalCloud. Furthermore, we performed an optimal design decision maximizing the economic value of an EGS power plant. This study optimized the range of well spacing between injection and production wells maximizing net present value in dollars (NPV). For this task, we used the GeoDT to simulate the Utah FORGE EGS development cycle from the initial well design to the end of production. Next, we accomplished another crucial task, which is predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs. Predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs is a non-trivial task because of huge computational runtime of simulation and lack of measurements. To avoid these limitations, we used easy-to-measure chemical concentrations in the subsurface as measurement data and convolutional neural network based ML model of a high-fidelity model. Next, we predicted permeability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We found that Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation predicts permeability with a high certainty if the prediction zone in the simulation area has chemical concentration data. Finally, we analyzed the DOE funded INGENIOUS and GeoDAWN projects data. For discovering hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin, the INGENIOUS project accumulated old data, collected new data, and released them in 2022. The dataset includes a total of 24 geological, geophysical, and geochemical attributes. Data resolution and scale significantly vary prohibiting an appropriate usage. To avoid such limitations, we brought all data in the same resolution and scale by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique for predicting data in unsampled locations. Subsequently, we analyzed LiDAR data of the GeoDAWN project. We received data in tiles format. The DOE’s overarching goal is to use ML on LiDAR data for finding favorable geological structures (e.g., step up faults in Brady, Nevada). To serve the purpose, we need to label favorable geologic structures that correspond to LiDAR data. We wrote an algorithm to label the LiDAR data with the favorable geologic structures.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Effects of canopy midstory management and fuel moisture on wildfire behavior

Abstract Increasing trends in wildfire severity can partly be attributed to fire exclusion in the past century which led to higher fuel accumulation. Mechanical thinning and prescribed burns are effective techniques to manage fuel loads and to establish a higher degree of control over future fire risk, while restoring fire prone landscapes to their natural states of succession. However, given the complexity of interactions between fine scale fuel heterogeneity and wind, it is difficult to assess the success of thinning operations and prescribed burns. The present work addresses this issue systematically by simulating a simple fire line and propagating through a vegetative environment where the midstory has been cleared in different degrees, leading to a canopy with almost no midstory, another with a sparse midstory and another with a dense midstory. The simulations are conducted for these three canopies under two different conditions, where the fuel moisture is high and where it is low. These six sets of simulations show widely different fire behavior, in terms of fire intensity, spread rate and consumption. To understand the physical mechanisms that lead to these differences, detailed analyses are conducted to look at wind patterns, mean flow and turbulent fluxes of momentum and energy. The analyses also lead to improved understanding of processes leading to high intensity crowning behavior in presence of a dense midstory. Moreover, this work highlights the importance of considering fine scale fuel heterogeneity, seasonality, wind effects and the associated fire-canopy-atmosphere interactions while considering prescribed burns and forest management operations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Clean Energy Co-Benefits: Air Quality, Health and Just Energy Transitions

Outdoor air pollution is a leading environmental risk factor and contributes to public health concerns. With assistance from the Department of State, NREL researchers supported the expansion of the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP) to Global InMAP model. This model offers a new approach to estimating the human health impacts caused by air pollutant emissions and how those impacts are distributed across populations around the world. Further research sponsored by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and executed by NREL and the University of Minnesota applied the Global InMAP Model for the first time in a study of the effects of renewable electricity deployment on air quality and human health in Southeast Asia. This brief details the inception, application, and novel approach of the Global InMAP model, and more broadly NREL's capabilities for air quality modeling and health effects co-benefits analyses in the context of just energy transitions.

air quality↗

Exploration of a Potential DOOR Endpoint for Hospital-acquired Bacterial Pneumonia and Ventilator-associated Bacterial Pneumonia Using Six Registrational Trials for Antibacterial Drugs

Abstract Background Desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) is an innovative approach to clinical trial design and analysis that uses an ordinal ranking system to incorporate the overall risks and benefits of a therapeutic intervention into a single measurement. Here we derived and evaluated a disease-specific DOOR endpoint for registrational trials for hospital-acquired bacterial pneumonia and ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia (HABP/VABP). Methods Through comprehensive examination of data from nearly 4000 participants enrolled in six registrational trials for HABP/VABP submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) between 2005 and 2022, we derived and applied a HABP/VABP specific endpoint. We estimated the probability that a participant assigned to the study treatment arm would have a more favorable overall DOOR or component outcome than a participant assigned to comparator. Results DOOR distributions between treatment arms were similar in all trials. DOOR probability estimates ranged from 48.3% to 52.9% and were not statistically different. There were no significant differences between treatment arms in the component analyses. Although infectious complications and serious adverse events occurred more frequently in ventilated participants compared to non-ventilated participants, the types of events were similar. Conclusions Through a data-driven approach, we constructed and applied a potential DOOR endpoint for HABP/VABP trials. The inclusion of syndrome-specific events may help to better delineate and evaluate participant experiences and outcomes in future HABP/VABP trials and could help inform data collection and trial design.

Immunology↗

Identifying Adversarial Cyber-Activity in Operational Technology Environments Using Bayesian Networks

Critical infrastructure and other operational technology (OT) environments face increasing cybersecurity risks from adversarial behavior. This paper describes the development of a risk model using a Bayesian network to enhance the comprehension of observable cyber events caused by malicious activity in OT environments. The core of the Bayesian network is a process model that describes the stages of adversary behavior. The remainder of the model is based on the MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems (ICS) taxonomy, which includes tactics and techniques that may be used by the adversary. The observables provide evidence for adversary behavior through the intermediary technique and tactic nodes. One challenge in constructing this model is a lack of open-source data from cyber-attacks on OT systems. This paper discusses learning from limited data, the elicitation of expert opinion to construct the conditional probability tables when data is scarce, and the refinement of the most difficult conditional probabilities tables using several forms of sensitivity analyses. Finally, the Bayesian network is demonstrated using two historical case studies: the DarkSide ransomware attack on the Colonial Pipeline and the destructive cyberattack targeting the ThyssenKrupp blast furnace. Index Terms—Cybersecurity, industrial control systems, operational technology

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Towards A Geo-Data Science Method for Assessing Rare Earth Element and Critical Mineral Occurrences in Coal and Other Sedimentary Systems

While preliminary analyses of data from open-source resources (Ekmann, 2012) show promising concentrations of REE in individual coal samples from a number of sites and basins in the U.S., other sparse data for REE in domestic coal-related strata suggest that many occurrences are low, “subeconomic” concentrations. At present, there is no method for systematically assessing potential sedimentary occurrences of REE. However, the geologic processes responsible for REE occurrences in coal-related strata are systematic; the unpredictability of REE resources in coal-related strata is due to poorly quantified spatial resource trends and the lack of an exploration method tailored to these resources. Thus, there exists a need for a systematic assessment approach that incorporates knowledge of geological variation in the mechanisms of REE enrichment within coal basins to help minimize geologic uncertainty and reduce commercial exploration risk.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗