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At least 397 records · Page 22

Technoeconomic analysis for near-term scale-up of bioprocesses

Growing the bioeconomy requires products and pathways that are cost-competitive. Technoeconomic analyses (TEAs) aim to predict the long-term economic viability and often use what are known as n th plant cost and performance parameters. However, as TEA is more widely adopted to inform everything from early-stage research to company and investor decision-making, the n th plant approach is inadequate and risks being misused to inform the early stages of scale-up. Some methods exist for conducting first-of-a-kind/pioneer plant cost analyses, but these receive less attention and have not been critically evaluated. This article explores TEA methods for early-stage scale-up, critically evaluates their applicability to biofuels and bioproducts, and recommends strategies for producing TEA results better suited to guiding prioritization and successful scale-up of bioprocesses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Unlocking the Microbiome of the International Space Station

With the start of human occupation more than 22 years ago, the microbiome of International Space Station (ISS) has been monitored to assess risk to both crew and craft. Historically, this monitoring has been achieved through onboard culture and ground-based analyses. Data spanning this timeframe are descriptive of a semi-closed, human occupied environment with associations to crew changes and process escapes within the environmental control and life support systems. While this approach has served to provide alerts to anomalies and overall confidence in the controls in place, the data are limited to the media type and growth conditions used. The bias toward the detection of culturable organisms has depicted an overall lack in biodiversity. As NASA leaves the ISS to focus on exploration, it is critical to fully understand its microbiome and its possible association to the noted positive influence on crew and vehicle health. The implementation of culture-independent, nanopore sequencing-based studies, both onboard the ISS and with returned ground samples, is revealing a more thorough depiction of the microbiome. As noted with pervious culture-based data, there is a common core microbiome across time and location, but key distinct areas of greater diversity exist. Through further investigation, these areas are emerging as unique ecological niches, potentially resulting in environmentally driven microbial selection. Moreover, the presence of some noted taxa within these unique locations has implications for crew health, planetary protection, and controls used in future spacecraft systems. The ability to perform in situ profiling of the ISS microbiome is transforming how NASA assesses risk and is a critical tool towards monitoring the establishment of the environmental microbiome in exploration spacecraft.

Sarah Stahl-Rommel↗

Use of Potassium Citrate to Reduce the Risk of Renal Stone Formation During Spaceflight

Introduction: NASA s Vision for Space Exploration centers on exploration class missions including the goals of returning to the moon and landing on Mars. One of NASA s objectives is to focus research on astronaut health and the development of countermeasures that will protect crewmembers during long duration voyages. Exposure to microgravity affects human physiology and results in changes in the urinary chemical composition favoring urinary supersaturation and an increased risk of stone formation. Nephrolithiasis is a multifactorial disease and development of a renal stone is significantly influenced by both dietary and environmental factors. Previous results from long duration Mir and short duration Shuttle missions have shown decreased urine volume, pH, and citrate levels and increased calcium. Citrate, an important inhibitor of calcium-containing stones, binds with urinary calcium reducing the amount of calcium available to form stones. Citrate inhibits renal stone recurrence by preventing crystal growth, aggregation, and nucleation and is one of the most common therapeutic agents used to prevent stone formation. Methods: Thirty long duration crewmembers (29 male, 1 female) participated in this study. 24-hour urines were collected and dietary monitoring was performed pre, in, and postflight. Crewmembers in the treatment group received two potassium citrate (KCIT) pills, 10 mEq/pill, ingested daily beginning 3 days before launch, all inflight days and through 14 days postflight. Urinary biochemical and dietary analyses were completed. Results: KCIT treated subjects exhibited decreased urinary calcium excretion and maintained the levels of calcium oxalate supersaturation risk at their preflight levels. The increased urinary pH levels in these subjects reduced the risk of uric acid stones. Discussion: The current study investigated the use of potassium citrate as a countermeasure to minimize the risk of stone formation during ISS missions. Results suggest that supplementation with potassium citrate decreases the risk of stone formation during and immediately after spaceflight.

Whitson, P. A.↗

Renal Stone Risk during Spaceflight: Assessment and Countermeasure Validation

NASA's Vision for Space Exploration centers on exploration class missions including the goals of returning to the moon and landing on Mars. One of NASA's objectives is to focus research on astronaut health and the development of countermeasures that will protect crewmembers during long duration voyages. Exposure to microgravity affects human physiology and results in changes in the urinary chemical composition favoring urinary supersaturation and an increased risk of stone formation. Nephrolithiasis is a multifactorial disease and development of a renal stone is significantly influenced by both dietary and environmental factors. Previous results from long duration Mir and short duration Shuttle missions have shown decreased urine volume, pH, and citrate levels and increased calcium. Citrate, an important inhibitor of calcium-containing stones, binds with urinary calcium reducing the amount of calcium available to form stones. Citrate inhibits renal stone recurrence by preventing crystal growth, aggregation, and nucleation and is one of the most common therapeutic agents used to prevent stone formation. Methods: Thirty long duration crewmembers (29 male, 1 female) participated in this study. 24-hour urines were collected and dietary monitoring was performed pre-, in-, and postflight. Crewmembers in the treatment group received two potassium citrate (KCIT) pills, 10 mEq/pill, ingested daily beginning 3 days before launch, all in-flight days and through 14 days postflight. Urinary biochemical and dietary analyses were completed. Results: KCIT treated subjects exhibited decreased urinary calcium excretion and maintained the levels of calcium oxalate supersaturation risk at their preflight levels. The increased urinary pH levels in these subjects reduced the risk of uric acid stones. Discussion: The current study investigated the use of potassium citrate as a countermeasure to minimize the risk of stone formation during ISS missions. Results suggest that supplementation with potassium citrate decreases the risk of stone formation during and immediately after spaceflight.

Whitson, Peggy A.↗

Risk of Performance and Behavioral Health Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, and Psychosocial Adaptions within a Team

The Risk of Performance and Behavioral Health Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, Communication, and Psychosocial Adaptation within a Team (the Team Risk) is primarily performance-focused, with a secondary emphasis on behavioral health outcomes resulting from team performance and interpersonal interactions. Monitoring tools, measures, and countermeasures are aimed at enhancing team processes and team composition configurations to optimize team performance and functioning. Long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs) will include major challenges that could affect team performance, including social isolation, physical confinement, a small and diverse crew, communication delays between crew and ground, limited or no crew rotation or evacuation options, limited or no resupply, and a high-consequence environment. Each of these conditions will affect the crew’s coordination, cooperation, psychological well-being, and performance. Although the International Space Station (ISS) remains important for studies that require spaceflight testing and validation, the current conditions on the ISS do not adequately mimic the exploration environment that is required for National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) teams research, and thus access to terrestrial or ground-based analogs of LDEM conditions is paramount. The emphasis on analogs for research is reflected in this updated evidence review of the Team Risk, and includes data from studies conducted at isolated, confined, extreme (ICE) environments (e.g., Antarctic stations), and from several mission simulation analogs such as the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) (HERA Experiment Information Package, 2014), also known as isolated, confined, controlled (ICC) environments. These studies have characterized many team factors regarding LDEMs, and the Team Risk has now matured from risk characterization to focusing more on countermeasure development. Because spaceflight evidence for team-level research is lacking, no reliable data is available to quantify the impact of team-level variables on individual and team-level outcomes during spaceflight missions. Until recently, no systematic attempt had been undertaken to measure the performance effects of team cohesion, team composition, team training, or team-related psychosocial adaptation during spaceflight. The Team Risk is a relatively young research area for NASA, with substantial growth only since the 2000s, and with limited access to spaceflight performance data. As a result, spaceflight evidence is lacking to identify specifically what team composition, level of training, amount of cohesion, or quality of psychosocial adaptation is necessary to reduce the risk of performance errors in space. However, astronaut journals and interviews and reports from spaceflight subject matter experts (SMEs) provide testimonies that team performance during spaceflight is important for mission success and to maintain crew health. Team spaceflight data is now being collected as part of the Spaceflight Standard Measures task (Clement, 2021)—a set of core measurements related to many human spaceflight risks that are collected from astronauts before, during, and after long-duration missions. The team-related standard measures focus on team cohesion, team performance, group living, team climate, and team processes. Collection of standard measures data is ongoing and published data is not yet available. Finally, although spaceflight evidence is lacking, evidence gleaned from ground studies and spaceflight analog studies will help close the gaps outlined in the Team Risk. Ground-based studies provide quantitative evidence for team functioning in ICE environments. Academic research on teams has produced dozens of meta-analyses that can be used to understand the general relationships among team inputs (e.g., team member characteristics and skills, job context), team processes, and emergent states (e.g., coordination, communication, cooperation, cohesion, trust, shared cognition), and team outcomes (e.g., effectiveness, errors, adaptation). Teams are complex, incorporating individual characteristics of team members, but also existing at a level that is greater than the sum of its parts. Therefore, the Team Risk must be integrated with other individual-focused NASA Human Research Program (HRP) risks, including Behavioral Medicine (BMed), Sleep, and Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA), and emerging research indicates more integration may needed between the Team Risk and the physiologically oriented risks. Much of this integration occurs through the Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB). A lack of team functioning may be a stressor in some circumstances, but the team often acts as a countermeasure. For example, support for team leaders and teammates can facilitate individual functioning and encourage psychological and physically healthy behaviors and attitudes. However, more research is needed regarding teams during LDEMs and the remaining gaps in the research are described in the current report.

Lauren Blackwell Landon↗

Changing temperature profiles and the risk of dengue outbreaks

As temperatures change worldwide, the pattern and competency of disease vectors will change, altering the global distribution of both the burden of infectious disease and the risk of the emergence of those diseases into new regions. To evaluate the risk of potential summer dengue outbreaks triggered by infected travelers under various climate scenarios, we develop an SEIR-type model, run numerical simulations, and conduct sensitivity analyses under a range of temperature profiles. Our model extends existing theoretical frameworks for studying dengue dynamics by introducing temperature dependence of two key parameters: the mosquito extrinsic incubation period and the lifespan of mosquitoes, which empirical data suggests are both highly temperature dependent. We find that changing temperature significantly alters dengue risk in an inverted U-shape, with temperatures in the range 27-31°C producing the highest risk. As temperatures increase beyond 31°C, the determinants of dengue risk begin to shift from mosquito biting rate and carrying capacity to the duration of the human infectious period, suggesting that changing temperatures not only alter dengue risk but also the potential efficacy of control measures. To illustrate the role of spatial and temporal temperature heterogeneity, we select five US cities where the primary dengue vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti , has been observed, and which have had dengue cases in the past: Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix. Our analysis suggests that an increase of 3°C leads to an approximate doubling of the risk of dengue in Los Angeles and Houston, but a reduction of risk in Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix due to extreme heat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A High-Speed High-Power-Density Non-Heavy Rare-Earth Permanent Magnet Traction Motor

There has been a global push for higher torque density and lower cost traction motors. The use of non-heavy rare-earth (non-HRE) permanent magnet materials in traction motors are being investigated for the sustainability, profitability and affordability of electric vehicles and to broaden their adoption. A 20,000-rpm permanent magnet traction motor using non-HRE magnet materials is proposed. A dual three-phase winding configuration driven by a segmented dual three-phase drive is proposed to reduce the current ripple, and as a result, the DC Link capacitor, as well as to ease the voltage constraint at high speed and eliminate any risk of uncontrolled regeneration. Furthermore, the dual winding configuration enables a fault tolerant design which is useful for reliability. The paper presents comprehensive electromagnetic, thermal and mechanical designs and analyses using an integrated approach. The results have shown that the design is robust against demagnetization and confirmed its thermal and mechanical viability.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

What Happened, and Why: Toward an Understanding of Human Error Based on Automated Analyses of Incident Reports

The objective of the Aviation System Monitoring and Modeling project of NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program was to develop technologies to enable proactive management of safety risk, which entails identifying the precursor events and conditions that foreshadow most accidents. Information about what happened can be extracted from quantitative data sources, but the experiential account of the incident reporter is the best available source of information about why an incident happened. In Volume I, the concept of the Scenario was introduced as a pragmatic guide for identifying similarities of what happened based on the objective parameters that define the Context and the Outcome of a Scenario. In this Volume II, that study continues into the analyses of the free narratives to gain understanding as to why the incident occurred from the reporter s perspective. While this is just the first experiment, the results of our approach are encouraging and indicate that it will be possible to design an automated analysis process guided by the structure of the Scenario that can achieve the level of consistency and reliability of human analysis of narrative reports.

Ferryman, Thomas A.↗

High-Throughput Microbial Community Analyses to Establish a Natural Fungal and Bacterial Consortium from Sewage Sludge Enriched with Three Pharmaceutical Compounds

Emerging and unregulated contaminants end up in soils via stabilized/composted sewage sludges, paired with possible risks associated with the development of microbial resistance to antimicrobial agents or an imbalance in the microbial communities. An enrichment experiment was performed, fortifying the sewage sludge with carbamazepine, ketoprofen and diclofenac as model compounds, with the aim to obtain strains with the capability to transform these pollutants. Culturable microorganisms were obtained at the end of the experiment. Among fungi, Cladosporium cladosporioides, Alternaria alternata and Penicillium raistrickii showed remarkable degradation rates. Population shifts in bacterial and fungal communities were also studied during the selective pressure using Illumina MiSeq. These analyses showed a predominance of Ascomycota (Dothideomycetes and Aspergillaceae) and Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria, suggesting the possibility of selecting native microorganisms to carry out bioremediation processes using tailored techniques.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Restrictive spirometry pattern among construction trade workers

Spirometry-based studies of occupational lung disease have mostly focused on obstructive or mixed obstructive/restrictive outcomes. We wanted to determine if restrictive spirometry pattern (RSP) is associated with occupation and increased mortality. Study participants included 18,145 workers with demographic and smoking data and repeatable spirometry. The mortality analysis cohort included 15,445 workers with known vital status and cause of death through December 31, 2016. Stratified analyses explored RSP prevalence by demographic and clinical variables and trade. Log-binomial regression models explored RSP risk factors while controlling for important confounders such as smoking, obesity, and comorbidities. Cox regression models explored mortality risk by spirometry category. Prevalence of RSP was very high (28.6%). Mortality hazard ratios for RSP were 1.50 for all causes, 1.86 for cardiovascular diseases, 2.31 for respiratory diseases, and 1.66 for lung cancer. All construction trades except painters, machinists, and roofers had significantly elevated risk for RSP compared to our internal reference group. RSP was significantly associated with both parenchymal and pleural changes seen by chest X-ray. Construction trade workers are at significantly increased risk for RSP independent of obesity. Individuals with RSP are at increased risk for all-cause mortality as well as mortality attributable to respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and lung cancer. RSP deserves greater attention in occupational medicine and epidemiology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems

Abstract Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are also subject to numerous uncertainties that prevent the direct application of simulation models for prediction and planning, particularly when extrapolating past behavior to a nonstationary future. Recent studies have developed a combination of methods to characterize, attribute, and quantify these uncertainties for both single‐ and multi‐sector systems. Here, we review challenges and complications to the idealized goal of fully quantifying all uncertainties in a multi‐sector model and their interactions with policy design as they emerge at different stages of analysis: (a) inference and model calibration; (b) projecting future outcomes; and (c) scenario discovery and identification of risk regimes. We also identify potential methods and research opportunities to help navigate the tradeoffs inherent in uncertainty analyses for complex systems. During this discussion, we provide a classification of uncertainty types and discuss model coupling frameworks to support interdisciplinary collaboration on multi‐sector dynamics (MSD) research. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for best practices to ensure that MSD research can be properly contextualized with respect to the underlying uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MACCS Theory Manual

This report describes the models of the MACCS computer code as presented in MACCS Version 3.10.0. The purpose of MACCS is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. From a given release of radioactive material into the atmosphere, MACCS estimates the extent and magnitude of radiological contamination, offsite doses, protective actions, socioeconomic impacts and costs, and health effects. Since the weather at the time of an accident is not predictable, MACCS supports various sampling options to run a representative set of simulations to evaluate weather variability. MACCS simulates atmospheric transport with a straight-line Gaussian plume segment model. From the estimated air and ground concentrations, MACCS models dose projections through several dose exposure pathways. These exposures can be offset by protective actions during the emergency response and long-term recovery of the accident. MACCS users directly specify the evacuation and sheltering area, while other protective actions (e.g., relocation, farmland restrictions, decontamination) are based on user-specified dose or concentration limits. While protective actions help reduce dose accumulation, they also cause social and economic impacts. MACCS models the extent of displaced individuals and land contamination, and the cost of offsite property damage, economic disruptions, and various accident expenditures caused by protective actions. Finally, from the dose accumulation, MACCS estimates early and stochastic health effects according to dose-response models. The purpose of consequence analyses is to be able to understand and estimate the impact of nuclear accidents. Consequence analysis is an essential tool to inform determinations of adequate protection of the public, to understand nuclear power hazards, to measure the value of regulations, and to help us appreciate the importance of nuclear safety. As such, MACCS has a variety of regulatory uses including environmental analyses (10 CFR 51.53, 52.47), regulatory cost-benefit analyses, backfit analyses (10 CFR 50.109), consequence analysis studies such as SOARCA (NUREG-1935), Level 3 PRA studies, and risk-informing of emergency planning (10 CFR 50 App. E and 50.47). This report updates the previous MACCS theory manual (NUREG/CR-4691 Vol. 2; Chanin, Sprung, Ritchie, & Jow, 1990) and accompanies the MACCS User's Guide (SAND-2021-1588) that describes the use and input requirements of the graphical user interface of MACCS known as WinMACCS. The MACCS User's Guide is also a reference guide that describes data input file formats, describes various software components in the MACCS code suite, and provides a set of example tutorials for running WinMACCS. Also, soon to be published is a MACCS input parameter guidance report (NUREG/CR-7270) that provides technical bases for commonly used MACCS input values. This page left blank

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Use of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Data to Support Severe Accident Consequence Analysis at Locations Without Onsite Meteorological Data

Certain regulatory actions under 10 CFR Parts 50, 52, or the proposed part 53 require the assessment of the potential off-site consequence risks to public safety and the environment from a hypothetical severe accident. As an important part of these analyses, atmospheric transport and dispersion (ATD) modeling relies heavily on the prevailing weather patterns of a site. When considering future deployment of new reactor designs in areas where historical onsite meteorological data is not available,

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reliability-Based Design of a Safety-Critical Automation System: A Case Study

In 1986, NASA funded a project to modernize the NASA Ames Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnels, including the replacement of obsolescent controls with a modern, automated distributed control system (DCS). The project effort on this system included an independent safety analysis (ISA) of the automation system. The purpose of the ISA was to evaluate the completeness of the hazard analyses which had already been performed on the Modernization Project. The ISA approach followed a tailoring of the risk assessment approach widely used on existing nuclear power plants. The tailoring of the nuclear industry oriented risk assessment approach to the automation system and its role in reliability-based design of the automation system is the subject of this paper.

Carroll, Carol W.↗

Characterization of microbial and chemical composition of shuttle wet waste with permanent gas and volatile organic compound analyses

Solid-waste treatment in space for Advanced Life Support, ALS, applications requires that the material can be safely processed and stored in a confined environment. Many solid-wastes are not stable because they are wet (40-90% moisture) and contain levels of soluble organic compounds that can contribute to the growth of undesirable microorganisms with concomitant production of noxious odors. In the absence of integrated Advanced Life Support systems on orbit, permanent gas, trace volatile organic and microbiological analyses were performed on crew refuse returned from the volume F "wet" trash of three consecutive Shuttle missions (STS-105, 109, and 110). These analyses were designed to characterize the short-term biological stability of the material and assess potential crew risks resulting from microbial decay processes during storage. Waste samples were collected post-orbiter landing and sorted into packaging material, food waste, toilet waste, and bulk liquid fractions deposited during flight in the volume F container. Aerobic and anaerobic microbial loads were determined in each fraction by cultivation on R2A and by acridine orange direct count (AODC). Dry and ash weights were performed to determine both water and organic content of the materials. Experiments to determine the aerobic and anaerobic biostability of refuse stored for varying periods of time were performed by on-line monitoring of CO2 and laboratory analysis for production of hydrogen sulfide and methane. Volatile organic compounds and permanent gases were analyzed using EPA Method TO15 by USEPA et al. [EPA Method TO15, The Determination of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) in Ambient Air using SUMMA, Passivated Canister Sampling and Gas Chromatographic Analysis,1999] with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry and by gas chromatography with selective detectors. These baseline measures of waste stream content, labile organics, and microbial load in the volume F Shuttle trash provide data for waste subsystem analysis and atmospheric management within the ALS Project. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

NASA Center KSC↗

The NASA Juncture Flow Experiment: Goals, Progress, and Preliminary Testing (Invited)

NASA has been working toward designing and conducting a juncture flow experiment on a wing-body aircraft configuration. The experiment is planned to provide validation-quality data for CFD that focuses on the onset and progression of a separation bubble near the wing-body juncture trailing edge region. This paper describes the goals and purpose of the experiment. Although currently considered unreliable, preliminary CFD analyses of several different configurations are shown. These configurations have been subsequently tested in a series of "risk-reduction" wind tunnel tests, in order to help down-select to a final configuration that will attain the desired flow behavior. The risk-reduction testing at the higher Reynolds number has not yet been completed (at the time of this writing), but some results from one of the low-Reynolds-number experiments are shown.

Rumsey, Christopher L.↗

Uncertainty quantification in MELCOR Safety analysis of ARIES reactor designs

MELCOR-TMAP is a combined thermal-hydraulics and tritium tracking code developed to simulate severe accident scenarios in fission and fusion power plants. Here, we demonstrate the results of MELCOR-TMAP analyses on historical ARIES program reference designs. By coupling MELCOR-TMAP with the open source RAVEN probabilistic risk analysis framework’s Bayesian UQ capabilities, we also demonstrate key uncertainties in material properties with the highest impact on tritium inventory and plant risk.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Evaluating and Addressing Potential Hazards of Fuel Tanks Surviving Atmospheric Reentry

In order to ensure reentering spacecraft do not pose an undue risk to the Earth's population it is important to design satellites and rocket bodies with end of life considerations in mind. In addition to considering the possible consequences of deorbiting a vehicle, consideration must also be given to the possible risks associated with a vehicle failing to become operational or reach its intended orbit. Based on recovered space debris and numerous reentry survivability analyses, fuel tanks are of particular concern in both of these considerations. Most spacecraft utilize some type of fuel tank as part of their propulsion system. These fuel tanks are most often constructed using stainless steel or titanium and are filled with potentially hazardous substances such as hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide. For a vehicle which has reached its scheduled end of mission the contents of the tanks are typically depleted. In this scenario the use of stainless steel and titanium results in the tanks posing a risk to people and property do to the high melting point and large heat of ablation of these materials leading to likely survival of the tank during reentry. If a large portion of the fuel is not depleted prior to reentry, there is the added risk of hazardous substance being released when the tank impact the ground. This paper presents a discussion of proactive methods which have been utilized by NASA satellite projects to address the risks associated with fuel tanks reentering the atmosphere. In particular it will address the design of a demiseable fuel tank as well as the evaluation of off the shelf designs which are selected to burst during reentry.

Kelley, Robert L.↗