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At least 397 records · Page 22

Circuit complexity and functionality: A statistical thermodynamics perspective

Circuit complexity, defined as the minimum circuit size required for implementing a particular Boolean computation, is a foundational concept in computer science. Determining circuit complexity is believed to be a hard computational problem. Recently, in the context of black holes, circuit complexity has been promoted to a physical property, wherein the growth of complexity is reflected in the time evolution of the Einstein-Rosen bridge (“wormhole”) connecting the two sides of an anti-de Sitter “eternal” black hole. Here, we are motivated by an independent set of considerations and explore links between complexity and thermodynamics for functionally equivalent circuits, making the physics-inspired approach relevant to real computational problems, for which functionality is the key element of interest. In particular, our thermodynamic framework provides an alternative perspective on the obfuscation of programs of arbitrary length—an important problem in cryptography—as thermalization through recursive mixing of neighboring sections of a circuit, which can be viewed as the mixing of two containers with “gases of gates.” This recursive process equilibrates the average complexity and leads to the saturation of the circuit entropy, while preserving functionality of the overall circuit. The thermodynamic arguments hinge on ergodicity in the space of circuits which we conjecture is limited to disconnected ergodic sectors due to fragmentation. The notion of fragmentation has important implications for the problem of circuit obfuscation as it implies that there are circuits of same size and functionality that cannot be connected via a polynomial number of local moves. Furthermore, we argue that fragmentation is unavoidable unless the complexity classes NP and coNP coincide, a statement that implies the collapse of the polynomial hierarchy of computational complexity theory to its first level.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Development of control quality factor for HVAC control loop performance assessment I—Methodology (ASHRAE RP-1587)

This article is the second paper from the ASHRAE research project RP-1587, focusing on the methodology of obtaining a control quality factor (CQF). This article presents a development of two CQFs for assessing the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) control loop performance. Both CQFs are able to detect whether the control loop is able to maintain the setpoint and identify the loop's ability to handle disturbances. In addition, the reversal behaviors are assessed as well. The first CQF (CQF-Harris) is proposed based on the normalized Harris index using the recursive least squares method. This recursive least squares method is selected because of its computational efficiency compared with the maximum likelihood estimation method. The second CQF (CQF-EWMA) is based on the exponentially weighted moving average of the error ratio. The assessment scale of excellent, good, fair, bad, and failed, which indicates the quality of the HVAC control loops, is established as well. The sensitivity analysis for both CQFs is also conducted, and it provides insights on choosing the appropriate parameters to compute such CQFs. Such parameters include the sampling frequency, the length of the moving window, and the variance of the unmeasured disturbance. The field evaluations and tests of the proposed CQFs for simulated control loops and real control loops can be found in the companion paper with the title 'Development of Control Quality Factor for HVAC Control Loop Performance Assessment - III: Field Testing and Results (ASHRAE RP-1587).'

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Multi-layer hydrostatic equilibrium of planets and synchronous moons: theory and application to Ceres and to solar system moons

The hydrostatic equilibrium of multi-layer bodies lacks a satisfactory theoretical treatment despite its wide range of applicability. Here we show that by using the exact analytical potential of homogeneous ellipsoids we can obtain recursive analytical solutions and an exact numerical method for the hydrostatic equilibrium shape problem of multi-layer planets and synchronous moons. The recursive solutions rely on the series expansion of the potential in terms of the polar and equatorial shape eccentricities, while the numerical method uses the exact potential expression. These solutions can be used to infer the interior structure of planets and synchronous moons from their observed shape, rotation, and gravity. When applied to the dwarf planet Ceres, we show that it is most likely a differentiated body with an icy crust of equatorial thickness 30-90 km and a rocky core of density 2.4-3.1 g cm{sup –3}. For synchronous moons, we show that the J {sub 2}/C {sub 22} ≅ 10/3 and the (b – c)/(a – c) ≅ 1/4 ratios have significant corrections of order Ω{sup 2}/(πGρ), with important implications for how their gravitational coefficients are determined from fly-by radio science data and for how we assess their hydrostatic equilibrium state.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Effective field theory of dark energy: a dynamical analysis

The effective field theory (EFT) of dark energy relies on three functions of time to describe the dynamics of background cosmology. The viability of these functions is investigated here by means of a thorough dynamical analysis. While the system is underdetermined, and one can always find a set of functions reproducing any expansion history, we are able to determine general compatibility conditions for these functions by requiring a viable background cosmology. In particular, we identify a set of variables that allows us to transform the non-autonomous system of equations into an infinite-dimensional one characterized by a significant recursive structure. We then analyze several autonomous sub-systems, obtained truncating the original one at increasingly higher dimension, that correspond to increasingly general models of dark energy and modified gravity. Furthermore, we exploit the recursive nature of the system to draw some general conclusions on the different cosmologies that can be recovered within the EFT formalism and the corresponding compatibility requirements for the EFT functions. The machinery that we set up serves different purposes. It offers a general scheme for performing dynamical analysis of dark energy and modified gravity models within the model independent framework of EFT; the general results, obtained with this technique, can be projected into specific models, as we show in one example. It also can be used to determine appropriate ansätze for the three EFT background functions when studying the dynamics of cosmological perturbations in the context of large scale structure tests of gravity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The positive orthogonal Grassmannian and loop amplitudes of ABJM

Herein we study the combinatorics associated with the positive orthogonal Grassmannian OG k and its connection to ABJM scattering amplitudes. We present a canonical embedding of OG k into the Grassmannian Gr( k , 2 k ), from which we deduce the canonical volume form that is invariant under equivalence moves. Remarkably the canonical forms of all reducible graphs can be converted into reduced ones with products of d log forms. Unlike super Yang–Mills, here the Jacobian plays a crucial role to ensure the d log form of the reduced representation. Furthermore in the positive region, we identify the functional map that arises from the triangle equivalence move as a 3-string scattering S -matrix which satisfies the tetrahedron equations by Zamolodchikov, implying (2 + 1)-dimensional integrability. We discuss the solution to the BCFW recursion relation for loop amplitudes, and demonstrate the presence of all physical singularities as well as the absence of all spurious ones. The on-shell diagram solution to the loop recursion relation exhibits manifest two-site cyclic symmetry and reveals that, to all loop, four and six-point amplitudes only have logarithmic singularities.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Quantum Simulation of the First-Quantized Pauli-Fierz Hamiltonian

We provide an explicit recursive divide-and-conquer approach for simulating quantum dynamics and derive a discrete first-quantized nonrelativistic QED Hamiltonian based on the many-particle Pauli-Fierz Hamiltonian. We apply this recursive divide-and-conquer algorithm to this Hamiltonian and compare it to a concrete simulation algorithm that uses qubitization. Our divide-and-conquer algorithm, using lowest-order Trotterization, scales for fixed grid spacing as O ~ ( Λ N 2 η 2 t 2 / ϵ ) for grid size N , η particles, simulation time t , field cutoff Λ , and error ϵ . Our qubitization algorithm scales as O ~ ( N ( η + N ) ( η + Λ 2 ) t log ( 1 / ϵ ) ) . This shows that even a naive partitioning and low-order splitting formula can yield, through our divide-and-conquer formalism, superior scaling to qubitization for large Λ . We compare the relative costs of these two algorithms on systems that are relevant for applications such as the spontaneous emission of photons and the photoionization of electrons. We observe that for different parameter regimes, one method can be favored over the other. Finally, we give new algorithmic and circuit-level techniques for gate optimization, including a new way of implementing a group of multicontrolled- X gates that can be used for better analysis of circuit cost. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Mukhopadhyay, Priyanka (ORCID:0000000164639100)↗

Real Time Effective Impedance Estimation for Power System State Estimation

Here, we introduce two tools-the Effective Impedance State Estimator (EISE), and the Real Time Effective Impedance Estimator (RTEIE). The EISE is novel in that it is an entirely data-driven state estimator, and does not require a network model. Thus, the EISE is well suited for applications in which an accurate network model is not available. Instead of using a network impedance model, the EISE uses an effective impedance network model that is learned online by the RTEIE. The RTEIE recursively estimates the effective impedance network model using phasor measurement unit (PMU) measurements. The mathematical reasoning for using an effective impedance model, rather than a full network impedance model, is given. The recursive estimation framework allows the RTEIE to take the entire history of phasor measurements into account to produce a model estimate, while still adjusting to changes in the network impedance due to external factors such as topology changes and temperature. The merits of the RTEIE and EISE are demonstrated by comparing the accuracy of the EISE with a conventional state estimator on a toy network.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Organ sample generator for expected treatment dose construction and adaptive inverse planning optimization

Purpose: To create an organ sample generator (OSG) for expected treatment dose construction and adaptive inverse planning optimization. The OSG generates random samples of organs of interest from a distribution obeying the patient specific organ variation probability density function (PDF) during the course of adaptive radiotherapy. Methods: Principle component analysis (PCA) and a time-varying least-squares regression (LSR) method were used on patient specific geometric variations of organs of interest manifested on multiple daily volumetric images obtained during the treatment course. The construction of the OSG includes the determination of eigenvectors of the organ variation using PCA, and the determination of the corresponding coefficients using time-varying LSR. The coefficients can be either random variables or random functions of the elapsed treatment days depending on the characteristics of organ variation as a stationary or a nonstationary random process. The LSR method with time-varying weighting parameters was applied to the precollected daily volumetric images to determine the function form of the coefficients. Eleven h and n cancer patients with 30 daily cone beam CT images each were included in the evaluation of the OSG. The evaluation was performed using a total of 18 organs of interest, including 15 organs at risk and 3 targets. Results: Geometric variations of organs of interest during h and n cancer radiotherapy can be represented using the first 3 {approx} 4 eigenvectors. These eigenvectors were variable during treatment, and need to be updated using new daily images obtained during the treatment course. The OSG generates random samples of organs of interest from the estimated organ variation PDF of the individual. The accuracy of the estimated PDF can be improved recursively using extra daily image feedback during the treatment course. The average deviations in the estimation of the mean and standard deviation of the organ variation PDF for h and n cancer radiotherapy were less than 2 and 1 mm, respectively, for most organs after the second week of treatment. After the first three weeks of treatment, the mean discrepancy of the dose estimation accuracy was within 1% for most of organs, the corresponding standard deviation was within 2.5% for parotids, the brain stem and the cochleae, and within 1% for other organs. Conclusions: A patient specific OSG is feasible and can be used to generate random samples of organs of interest for the expected treatment dose construction and adaptive inverse planning. The accuracy of the OSG can be improved continuously and recursively during the adaptive treatment course using daily volumetric image feedback.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

WE-E-17A-06: Assessing the Scale of Tumor Heterogeneity by Complete Hierarchical Segmentation On MRI

Purpose: In many cancers, intratumoral heterogeneity exists in vascular and genetic structure. We developed an algorithm which uses clinical imaging to interrogate different scales of heterogeneity. We hypothesize that heterogeneity of perfusion at large distance scales may correlate with propensity for disease recurrence. We applied the algorithm to initial diagnosis MRI of rhabdomyosarcoma patients to predict recurrence. Methods: The Spatial Heterogeneity Analysis by Recursive Partitioning (SHARP) algorithm recursively segments the tumor image. The tumor is repeatedly subdivided, with each dividing line chosen to maximize signal intensity difference between the two subregions. This process continues to the voxel level, producing segments at multiple scales. Heterogeneity is measured by comparing signal intensity histograms between each segmented region and the adjacent region. We measured the scales of contrast enhancement heterogeneity of the primary tumor in 18 rhabdomyosarcoma patients. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we explored the influence of heterogeneity parameters on relapse-free survival (RFS). To compare with existing methods, fractal and Haralick texture features were also calculated. Results: The complete segmentation produced by SHARP allows extraction of diverse features, including the amount of heterogeneity at various distance scales, the area of the tumor with the most heterogeneity at each scale, and for a given point in the tumor, the heterogeneity at different scales. 10/18 rhabdomyosarcoma patients suffered disease recurrence. On contrast-enhanced MRI, larger scale of maximum signal intensity heterogeneity, relative to tumor diameter, predicted for shorter RFS (p=0.05). Fractal dimension, fractal fit, and three Haralick features did not predict RFS (p=0.09-0.90). Conclusion: SHARP produces an automatic segmentation of tumor regions and reports the amount of heterogeneity at various distance scales. In rhabdomyosarcoma, RFS was shorter when the primary tumor exhibited larger scale of heterogeneity on contrast-enhanced MRI. If validated on a larger dataset, this imaging biomarker could be useful to help personalize treatment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Coronary artery analysis: Computer-assisted selection of best-quality segments in multiple-phase coronary CT angiography

Purpose: The authors are developing an automated method to identify the best-quality coronary arterial segment from multiple-phase coronary CT angiography (cCTA) acquisitions, which may be used by either interpreting physicians or computer-aided detection systems to optimally and efficiently utilize the diagnostic information available in multiple-phase cCTA for the detection of coronary artery disease. Methods: After initialization with a manually identified seed point, each coronary artery tree is automatically extracted from multiple cCTA phases using our multiscale coronary artery response enhancement and 3D rolling balloon region growing vessel segmentation and tracking method. The coronary artery trees from multiple phases are then aligned by a global registration using an affine transformation with quadratic terms and nonlinear simplex optimization, followed by a local registration using a cubic B-spline method with fast localized optimization. The corresponding coronary arteries among the available phases are identified using a recursive coronary segment matching method. Each of the identified vessel segments is transformed by the curved planar reformation (CPR) method. Four features are extracted from each corresponding segment as quality indicators in the original computed tomography volume and the straightened CPR volume, and each quality indicator is used as a voting classifier for the arterial segment. A weighted voting ensemble (WVE) classifier is designed to combine the votes of the four voting classifiers for each corresponding segment. The segment with the highest WVE vote is then selected as the best-quality segment. In this study, the training and test sets consisted of 6 and 20 cCTA cases, respectively, each with 6 phases, containing a total of 156 cCTA volumes and 312 coronary artery trees. An observer preference study was also conducted with one expert cardiothoracic radiologist and four nonradiologist readers to visually rank vessel segment quality. The performance of our automated method was evaluated by comparing the automatically identified best-quality segments identified by the computer to those selected by the observers. Results: For the 20 test cases, 254 groups of corresponding vessel segments were identified after multiple phase registration and recursive matching. The AI-BQ segments agreed with the radiologist’s top 2 ranked segments in 78.3% of the 254 groups (Cohen’s kappa 0.60), and with the 4 nonradiologist observers in 76.8%, 84.3%, 83.9%, and 85.8% of the 254 groups. In addition, 89.4% of the AI-BQ segments agreed with at least two observers’ top 2 rankings, and 96.5% agreed with at least one observer’s top 2 rankings. In comparison, agreement between the four observers’ top ranked segment and the radiologist’s top 2 ranked segments were 79.9%, 80.7%, 82.3%, and 76.8%, respectively, with kappa values ranging from 0.56 to 0.68. Conclusions: The performance of our automated method for selecting the best-quality coronary segments from a multiple-phase cCTA acquisition was comparable to the selection made by human observers. This study demonstrates the potential usefulness of the automated method in clinical practice, enabling interpreting physicians to fully utilize the best available information in cCTA for diagnosis of coronary disease, without requiring manual search through the multiple phases and minimizing the variability in image phase selection for evaluation of coronary artery segments across the diversity of human readers with variations in expertise.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Solvers for $\mathcal{O} (N)$ Electronic Structure in the Strong Scaling Limit

Here we present a hybrid OpenMP/Charm\tt++ framework for solving the $\mathcal{O} (N)$ self-consistent-field eigenvalue problem with parallelism in the strong scaling regime, $P\gg{N}$, where $P$ is the number of cores, and $N$ is a measure of system size, i.e., the number of matrix rows/columns, basis functions, atoms, molecules, etc. This result is achieved with a nested approach to spectral projection and the sparse approximate matrix multiply [Bock and Challacombe, SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 35 (2013), pp. C72--C98], and involves a recursive, task-parallel algorithm, often employed by generalized $N$-Body solvers, to occlusion and culling of negligible products in the case of matrices with decay. Lastly, employing classic technologies associated with generalized $N$-Body solvers, including overdecomposition, recursive task parallelism, orderings that preserve locality, and persistence-based load balancing, we obtain scaling beyond hundreds of cores per molecule for small water clusters ([H${}_2$O]${}_N$, $N \in \{ 30, 90, 150 \}$, $P/N \approx \{ 819, 273, 164 \}$) and find support for an increasingly strong scalability with increasing system size $N$.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Limited-Memory Multiple Shooting Method for Weakly Constrained Variational Data Assimilation

Maximum-likelihood-based state estimation for dynamical systems with model error raises computational challenges in memory usage due to the much larger number of free variables when compared to the perfect model case. To address this challenge, we present a limited-memory method for maximum-likelihood-based estimation of state space models. We reduce the memory storage requirements by expressing the optimal states as a function of checkpoints bounding a shooting interval. All states can then be recomputed as needed from a recursion stemming from the optimality conditions. The matching of states at checkpoints is imposed, in a multiple shooting fashion, as constraints on the optimization problem, which is solved with an augmented Lagrangian method. We prove that for nonlinear systems under certain assumptions the condition number of the Hessian matrix of the augmented Lagrangian function is bounded above with respect to the number of shooting intervals. Hence the method is stable for increasing time horizon. The assumptions include satisfying the observability conditions of the linearized system on a shooting interval. We also propose a recursion-based gradient evaluation algorithm for computing the gradient, which in turn allows the algorithm to proceed by storing at any time only the checkpoints and the states on a shooting interval. We demonstrate our findings with simulations in different regimes for Burgers' equation.

Xu, Wanting↗

HykSort: a new variant of hypercube quicksort on distributed memory architectures. In: ICS '13 Proceedings of the 27th international ACM conference on International conference on supercomputing

In this paper, we present HykSort, an optimized comparison sort for distributed memory architectures that attains more than 2× improvement over bitonic sort and samplesort. The algorithm is based on the hypercube quicksort, but instead of a binary recursion, we perform a k-way recursion in which the pivots are selected accurately with an iterative parallel select algorithm. The single-node sort is performed using a vectorized and multithreaded merge sort. The advantages of HykSort are lower communication costs, better load balancing, and avoidance of O(p)-collective communication primitives. We also present a staged communication samplesort, which is more robust than the original samplesort for large core counts. We conduct an experimental study in which we compare hypercube sort, bitonic sort, the original samplesort, the staged samplesort, and HykSort. We report weak and strong scaling results and study the effect of the grain size. It turns out that no single algorithm performs best and a hybridization strategy is necessary. As a highlight of our study, on our largest experiment on 262,144 AMD cores of the CRAY XK7 "Titan" platform at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory we sorted 8 trillion 32-bit integer keys in 37 seconds achieving 0.9TB/s effective throughput.

Sundar, Hari↗

Defense strategies and expected capacity of high performance computing infrastructures

We consider high performance computing infrastructures consisting of multiple sites connected over a wide-area network. These sites house heterogeneous computing systems, network elements and local-area connections, and the wide-area network plays a critical, asymmetric role of providing the vital connectivity between them. We model this infrastructure as a recursive system of systems, wherein the basic systems at the finest levels are composed of discrete cyber and physical components. These components may be disabled by cyber and physical disruptions, and their reinforcements protect against them albeit at a cost. We utilize results from a game formulation based on (i) characterizing the disruptions between systems at each level of recursion using aggregate failure correlation functions, and within basic systems using the multiplier functions, and (ii) using utility functions expressed in terms of the number of basic system components attacked and reinforced. At Nash Equilibrium, we derive expressions for the expected capacity of the infrastructure given by the number of computing nodes that are operational and connected to the network.

Rao, Nageswara↗

Modeling, Real-Time Estimation, and Identification of UWB Indoor Wireless Channels

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are used to model ultrawideband (UWB) indoor wireless channels. We show that the impulse responses for time-varying indoor wireless channels can be approximated in a mean-square sense as close as desired by impulse responses that can be realized by SDEs. The state variables represent the inphase and quadrature components of the UWB channel. The expected maximization and extended Kalman filter are employed to recursively identify and estimate the channel parameters and states, respectively, from online received signal strength measured data. Both resolvable and nonresolvable multipath received signals are considered and represented as small-scaled Nakagami fading. The proposed models together with the estimation algorithm are tested using UWB indoor measurement data demonstrating the method’s viability and the results are presented.

Olama, Mohammed M.↗

PV Generation and Load Forecasting for Adjuntas PR Community Microgrids

Existing frameworks to forecast time-series photovoltaic (PV) output power and consumer load for microgrid operations and controls assume a near-continuous availability of real-time input features from the field assets such as PV inverters, energy meters, and weather station. These incoming data points are used to periodically retrain models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window, be it one hour-ahead, one-day ahead, or one-week ahead. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. Hence, there is a need for programs that assume no availability of real-time microgrid asset data and still make reliable forecasts that can be used for decision-making. Such programs would be apt to function in extreme weather events such as hurricanes and would use lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance and ambient temperature, then compute PV power from those forecasts, as well as independently forecast consumer load. The codebase performs forecasting for the scenario of when the microgrid does not have a reliable access to forecasts or real-time observations of solar irradiance (I) and ambient temperature (AT) and load (Load) to be able to adequately forecast, in real-time, the PV power production or a business' load. In this case, using historical values of PV power and load, a univariate forecasting of generation and consumption are respectively made. The use-case in particular has two sub-scenarios: one, a normal 7-day ahead forecast where the unavailability of real-time data is assumed due to infrastructure issues such as loss of communication or sensor maintenance or service downtimes. Whereas a hurricane-caused unavailability of real-time data requires a second model trained specifically on historical hurricane days to be able to capture the extreme day behavior of generation in particular, and load if applicable. A gradient boosted regression tree comprises an ensemble of additive models that map between the input of historical values (be it irradiance, temperature, or load) and their corresponding output forecasts of a given horizon such that the individual learner predictions are summed up over the total number of such learners in the ensemble to produce an aggregate forecast. A weighting mechanism is applied to the training data in each iteration, where actual and forecast values are compared to penalize incorrect forecasts by increasing the weight and reducing it to reward correct forecasts. The code's benefits are that it: (a) accounts for a contingency where communication loss renders newly measured real-time data unavailable for model tuning and snapshot updates; (b) presents blind forecasting that recursively determines the next time-step value in a horizon using the forecast of the same attribute from a prior step; and (c) employs lightweight models that, once trained, can reliably generalize for different horizons, which make them suitable for enhancing the resilience of field microgrids prone to extreme events that encounter disruptions to data availability.

Sundararajan, Aditya [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

Hybrid quantum-classical algorithms for approximate graph coloring

We show how to apply the recursive quantum approximate optimization algorithm (RQAOA) to MAX- k -CUT, the problem of finding an approximate k -vertex coloring of a graph. We compare this proposal to the best known classical and hybrid classical-quantum algorithms. First, we show that the standard (non-recursive) QAOA fails to solve this optimization problem for most regular bipartite graphs at any constant level p : the approximation ratio achieved by QAOA is hardly better than assigning colors to vertices at random. Second, we construct an efficient classical simulation algorithm which simulates level- 1 QAOA and level- 1 RQAOA for arbitrary graphs. In particular, these hybrid algorithms give rise to efficient classical algorithms, and no benefit arising from the use of quantum mechanics is to be expected. Nevertheless, they provide a suitable testbed for assessing the potential benefit of hybrid algorithm: We use the simulation algorithm to perform large-scale simulation of level- 1 QAOA and RQAOA with up to 300 qutrits applied to ensembles of randomly generated 3 -colorable constant-degree graphs. We find that level- 1 RQAOA is surprisingly competitive: for the ensembles considered, its approximation ratios are often higher than those achieved by the best known generic classical algorithm based on rounding an SDP relaxation. This suggests the intriguing possibility that higher-level RQAOA may be a potentially useful algorithm for NISQ devices.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Analysis of Random Forest Modeling Strategies for Multi-Step Wind Speed Forecasting

Although the random forest (RF) model is a powerful machine learning tool that has been utilized in many wind speed/power forecasting studies, there has been no consensus on optimal RF modeling strategies. This study investigates three basic questions which aim to assist in the discernment and quantification of the effects of individual model properties, namely: (1) using a standalone RF model versus using RF as a correction mechanism for the persistence approach, (2) utilizing a recursive versus direct multi-step forecasting strategy, and (3) training data availability on model forecasting accuracy from one to six hours ahead. These questions are investigated utilizing data from the FINO1 offshore platform and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) C1 site, and testing results are compared to the persistence method. At FINO1, due to the presence of multiple wind farms and high inter-annual variability, RF is more effective as an error-correction mechanism for the persistence approach. The direct forecasting strategy is seen to slightly outperform the recursive strategy, specifically for forecasts three or more steps ahead. Finally, increased data availability (up to ~8 equivalent years of hourly training data) appears to continually improve forecasting accuracy, although changing environmental flow patterns have the potential to negate such improvement. We hope that the findings of this study will assist future researchers and industry professionals to construct accurate, reliable RF models for wind speed forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗