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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Ensemble‐Based Assimilation of Satellite All‐Sky Microwave Radiances Improves Intensity and Rainfall Predictions for Hurricane Harvey (2017)

Abstract Ensemble‐based data assimilation of radar observations across inner‐core regions of tropical cyclones (TCs) in tandem with satellite all‐sky infrared (IR) radiances across the TC domain improves TC track and intensity forecasts. This study further investigates potential enhancements in TC track, intensity, and rainfall forecasts via assimilation of all‐sky microwave (MW) radiances using Hurricane Harvey (2017) as an example. Assimilating Global Precipitation Measurement constellation all‐sky MW radiances in addition to GOES‐16 all‐sky IR radiances reduces the forecast errors in the TC track, rapid intensification (RI), and peak intensity compared to assimilating all‐sky IR radiances alone, including a 24‐hr increase in forecast lead‐time for RI. Assimilating all‐sky MW radiances also improves Harvey's hydrometeor fields, which leads to improved forecasts of rainfall after Harvey's landfall. This study indicates that avenues exist for producing more accurate forecasts for TCs using available yet underutilized data, leading to better warnings of and preparedness for TC‐associated hazards in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variability of Snow and Rainfall Partitioning Into Evapotranspiration and Summer Runoff Across Nine Mountainous Catchments

Abstract Understanding the partitioning of snow and rain contributing to either catchment streamflow or evapotranspiration (ET) is of critical relevance for water management in response to climate change. To investigate this partitioning, we use endmember splitting and mixing analyses based on stable isotope ( 18 O) data from nine headwater catchments in the East River, Colorado. Our results show that one third of the snow partitions to ET and 13% of the snowmelt sustains summer streamflow. Only 8% of the rainfall contributes to the summer streamflow, because most of the rain (67%) partitions to ET. The spatial variability of precipitation partitioning is mainly driven by aspect and tree cover across the sub‐catchments. Catchments with higher tree cover have a higher share of snow becoming ET, resulting in less snow in summer streamflow. Summer streamflow did not contain more rain with higher rainfall sums, but more rain was taken up in ET.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Environmental Controls on MCS Lifetime Rainfall Over Tropical Oceans

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute a majority of rainfall over tropical oceans. However, our understanding of the environmental controls on tropical oceanic MCS precipitation remains incomplete. Using 20‐year of satellite observations, reanalysis data, and MCS tracking, we found that MCSs initiating in a mesoscale environment with enhanced lower‐free‐tropospheric moisture, warmer middle troposphere, stronger low‐level ascent, and stronger deep‐layer (surface‐400 hPa) wind shear tend to produce more precipitation during their lifetimes. While most of these environmental factors are correlated with one another, the deep‐layer shear is not. A rapid pickup in MCS lifetime rainfall is found when the lower‐free‐tropospheric specific humidity exceeds 10 g kg −1 . This nonlinearity is mostly dominated by the nonlinear increase in MCS area. On the other hand, both MCS area and rain rate increase quasi‐linearly with the deep‐layer shear. The increase in rain rate is related to the enhancement of heavy precipitating convective activity with deep‐layer shear.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Emergence of seasonal delay of tropical rainfall during 1979–2019

Fundamental to Earth’s climate, tropical rainfall marks a dominant annual cycle characterized by its amplitude and phase, representing the range between wet and dry seasons and their onset timing, respectively. Under global warming, previous studies revealed enhanced amplitude of rainfall annual cycle over ocean and delayed phase over land in the tropics, underpinned by solid theories. It is unclear however whether these changes have already emerged in the observational records. Here, we report a robust delay of 3.02 and 3.43 days over the northern tropical land and Sahel respectively during 1979-2018 based on five observation datasets. Furthermore, most of the delay is captured by multiple ensemble simulations driven by external forcings, with greenhouse gases (GHG) more important over the northern tropical land and anthropogenic aerosols (AER) more important over the Sahel. Both GHG and AER delay the annual cycle of regional precipitation similarly by producing a moister and more ocean-like atmosphere, thus increasing its lag in response to seasonal solar forcing. Our findings provide new evidence of the human footprints on Earth’s hydrological cycle at continental and regional scales. As GHG and AER continue to increase and decrease respectively, these seasonal delays will be further amplified in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Mediterranean grassland soil C–N compound turnover is dependent on rainfall and depth, and is mediated by genomically divergent microorganisms

Soil microbial activity drives the carbon and nitrogen cycles and is an important determinant of atmospheric trace gas turnover, yet most soils are dominated by microorganisms with unknown metabolic capacities. Even Acidobacteria, among the most abundant bacteria in soil, remain poorly characterized, and functions across groups such as Verrucomicrobia, Gemmatimonadetes, Chloroflexi and Rokubacteria are understudied. Here, we have resolved 60 metagenomic and 20 proteomic data sets from a Mediterranean grassland soil ecosystem and recovered 793 near-complete microbial genomes from 18 phyla, representing around one-third of all microorganisms detected. Importantly, this enabled extensive genomics-based metabolic predictions for these communities. Acidobacteria from multiple previously unstudied classes have genomes that encode large enzyme complements for complex carbohydrate degradation. In contrast, most microorganisms encode carbohydrate esterases that strip readily accessible methyl and acetyl groups from polymers like pectin and xylan, forming methanol and acetate, the availability of which could explain the high prevalence of C 1 metabolism and acetate utilization in genomes. Microorganism abundances among samples collected at three soil depths and under natural and amended rainfall regimes indicate statistically higher associations of inorganic nitrogen metabolism and carbon degradation in deep and shallow soils, respectively. This partitioning decreased in samples under extended spring rainfall, indicating that long-term climate alteration can affect both carbon and nitrogen cycling. As a whole, by leveraging natural and experimental gradients with genome-resolved metabolic profiles, we link microorganisms lacking prior genomic characterization to specific roles in complex carbon, C 1 , nitrate and ammonia transformations, and constrain factors that impact their distributions in soil.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Altered rainfall patterns increase forb abundance and richness in native tallgrass prairie

Models predict that precipitation variability will increase with climate change. We used a 15-year precipitation manipulation experiment to determine if altering the timing and amount of growing season rainfall will impact plant community structure in annually burned, native tallgrass prairie. The altered precipitation treatment maintained the same total growing season precipitation as the ambient precipitation treatment, but received a rainfall regime of fewer, larger rain events, and longer intervals between events each growing season. Although this change in precipitation regime significantly lowered mean soil water content, overall this plant community was remarkably resistant to altered precipitation with species composition relatively stable over time. However, we found significantly higher forb cover and richness and slightly lower grass cover on average with altered precipitation, but the forb responses were manifest only after a ten-year lag period. Thus, although community structure in this grassland is relatively resistant to this type of altered precipitation regime, forb abundance in native tallgrass prairie may increase in a future characterized by increased growing season precipitation variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics

This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Lastly, results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-time attribution of the influence of climate change on extreme weather events: a storyline case study of Hurricane Ian rainfall

Abstract As the Earth continues to warm due to human greenhouse gas emissions, there is a growing need to efficiently communicate the effect that global warming has on individual extreme weather events. Using a storyline approach, we present a rapid attribution of the increase in rainfall over Florida during Hurricane Ian in 2022 due to climate change as a case study. We find that extreme accumulated rainfall amounts associated with Hurricane Ian increased by 18%, far in excess of what would be expected by Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. The study offers a blueprint for rapid operational climate change attribution statements about extreme storms and other very rare weather events.

Reed, Kevin A. (ORCID:0000000337417080)↗
DOE OSTI2018

Orbital precession modulates interannual rainfall variability, as recorded in an Early Pleistocene speleothem

Interannual variability of African rainfall impacts local and global communities, but its past behavior and response in future climate projections are poorly understood. This is primarily due to short instrumental records and a lack of long high-resolution palaeoclimate proxy records. Here we present an annually resolved 91,000 year Early Pleistocene record of hydroclimate from the early hominin-bearing Makapansgat Valley, South Africa. Changes in speleothem annual band thickness are dominated by precession over four consecutive orbital cycles with strong millennial-scale periodicity. The frequency of interannual variability (2.0–6.5 yr oscillations) does not change systematically, yet its amplitude is modulated by the orbital forcing. These long-term characteristics of interannual variability are reproduced with transient climate model simulations of water balance for South Africa from the Late Pleistocene to Recent. Based on these results, we suggest that the frequency of interannual variations in southern African rainfall is likely to be stable under anthropogenic warming, but that the size of year-to-year variations may increase. We see an orbitally forced increase in the amplitude of interannual climate variability between 1.8 Ma and 1.7 Ma coincident with the first evidence for the Acheulean stone tool technology.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2015

The Rainfall Sensitivity of Tropical Net Primary Production in CMIP5 Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Simulations

In this study, the authors used the relationship between mean annual rainfall (MAR) and net primary production (NPP) (MAR–NPP) observed in tropical forests to evaluate the performance (twentieth century) and predictions (twenty-first century) of tropical NPP from 10 earth system models (ESMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Over the tropical forest domain most of the CMIP5 models showed a positive correlation between NPP and MAR similar to observations. The GFDL, CESM1, CCSM4, and Beijing Normal University (BNU) models better represented the observed MAR–NPP relationship. Compared with observations, the models were able to reproduce the seasonality of rainfall over areas with long dry seasons, but NPP seasonality was difficult to evaluate given the limited observations. From 2006 to 2100, for representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) (and most RCP4.5 simulations) all models projected increases in NPP, but these increases occurred at different rates. By the end of the twenty-first century the models with better performance against observed NPP–MAR projected increases in NPP between ~2% (RCP4.5) and ~19% (RCP8.5) relative to contemporary observations, representing increases of ~9% and ~25% relative to their historical simulations. When climate and CO 2 fertilization are considered as separate controls on plant physiology, the current climate yields maximum productivity. Yet, as future climate changes become detrimental to productivity, CO 2 fertilization becomes the dominant response, ending in an overall increase in NPP toward the end of the twenty-first century. Thus, the way in which models represent CO 2 fertilization affects their performance. Additional studies addressing the individual and simultaneous effect of other climate variables on NPP are needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Detecting Humanity's Imprint on Rainfall Patterns: An S&TR Preprint

It's the perfect storm. At a time when global demand for water is rising rapidly due to population growth, urbanization, industrial activities, and expanded use of crop irrigation systems, climate change may be altering the timing, location, and amount of rain and snow that fall on large swaths of the planet. Computational models indicate that increases in global surface temperatures will redistribute rainfall in two ways. First, warmer air, which holds more water vapor, will intensify existing precipitation and drought conditions. That is, more rain will fall in wet areas, and evaporation will increase in drier areas. Second, shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns will push storm paths and subtropical dry zones toward the poles. Worldwide changes to rainfall patterns could magnify existing problems with water scarcity, food shortage, and possibly even political instabilities, thereby transforming an environmental concern into a global security issue. Confirming that the predicted changes are occurring and determining whether human-induced (anthropogenic) forces, such as greenhouse-gas emissions and ozone depletion, or naturally occurring fluctuations are causing the pattern shifts may help policy makers develop strategies for mitigating or adapting to the changes. However, extracting this information from global precipitation data can be challenging.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

STREAM II-V8: Revision for STREAM II-V7 to Include Spatially Variable Radar Derived Rainfall

STREAM II is the aqueous transport model of the Weather Information and Display System (WINDS). It is used to calculate downstream transport in the event of a radiological or chemical spill into the waterways on the Savannah River Site during emergency operations. Improvements were made to the code to include spatially variable radar derived rainfall to improve the accuracy of model estimates of watershed runoff and flow values. In addition, watershed runoff curves for low rainfall values (<1 inch) were improved to provide better stream flow estimates.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disastrous Flash Floods Triggered by Moderate to Minor Rainfall Events. Recent Cases in Coastal Benguela (Angola)

The present work focuses on two recent flash floods in coastal Benguela (Angola), both triggered by moderate rainfall but which had disastrous consequences for local populations (namely 71 deaths in 2015 and 17 in 2019). The research involved a regional survey to establish the effects of these floods combined with a geomorphological and socio-economic analysis of the most affected areas to understand the main forcing factors. The two flash floods produced major damage in restricted sectors within very small coastal catchments (<16 km2). The prevalence of fine-grained sedimentary rocks, relatively steep hills, thin soil cover, and vegetation scarcity are natural factors that promote surface runoff. However, socio-economic conditions are most likely the main reasons of flood damage. Namely, rapid population growth with poor planning and making use of low-quality construction materials, the high waste yields that are not properly managed and the absence of flood risk awareness. In the small valleys around the fast-growing cities of coastal Benguela, hazardous flash floods occur recurrently, even after moderate precipitation. Most affected areas are determined by local conditions that compromise drainage at the time of the rainfall event, being very difficult to predict.

Dinis, Pedro A. (ORCID:0000000175587369)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Strong temporal variation in treefall and branchfall rates in a tropical forest is related to extreme rainfall: results from 5 years of monthly drone data for a 50 ha plot

Abstract. A mechanistic understanding of how tropical-tree mortality responds to climate variation is urgently needed to predict how tropical-forest carbon pools will respond to anthropogenic global change, which is altering the frequency and intensity of storms, droughts, and other climate extremes in tropical forests. We used 5 years of approximately monthly drone-acquired RGB (red–green–blue) imagery for 50 ha of mature tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to quantify spatial structure; temporal variation; and climate correlates of canopy disturbances, i.e., sudden and major drops in canopy height due to treefalls, branchfalls, or the collapse of standing dead trees. Canopy disturbance rates varied strongly over time and were higher in the wet season, even though wind speeds were lower in the wet season. The strongest correlate of monthly variation in canopy disturbance rates was the frequency of extreme rainfall events. The size distribution of canopy disturbances was best fit by a Weibull function and was close to a power function for sizes above 25 m2. Treefalls accounted for 74 % of the total area and 52 % of the total number of canopy disturbances in treefalls and branchfalls combined. We hypothesize that extremely high rainfall is a good predictor because it is an indicator of storms having high wind speeds, as well as saturated soils that increase uprooting risk. These results demonstrate the utility of repeat drone-acquired data for quantifying forest canopy disturbance rates at fine temporal and spatial resolutions over large areas, thereby enabling robust tests of how temporal variation in disturbance relates to climate drivers. Further insights could be gained by integrating these canopy observations with high-frequency measurements of wind speed and soil moisture in mechanistic models to better evaluate proximate drivers and with focal tree observations to quantify the links to tree mortality and woody turnover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

On the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: An application to West African rainfall

Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall~variability. Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso multivariate regression, and dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that modulate Sahel rainfall. As a result, these relationships fall into two categories: well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, such as the relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and putative links, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, that invite further research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Panama Rainforest Changes with Experimental Drought (PaRChED): Initial Effects of Partial Throughfall Exclusion on Soil Dynamics in Lowland Forests Across Variation in Rainfall and Soil Fertility

Changes in rainfall are predicted across tropical regions, with effects on nutrient, water, and carbon cycling. This chapter summarizes results from the first two years of a throughfall exclusion experiment in four lowland Panamanian forests that span a 1,000-mm change in rainfall and variation in soil fertility. Soil respiration (i.e., soil carbon dioxide [CO2 ] flux) declined with throughfall exclusion, with a site*season interaction, and the radiocarbon age of respired carbon was older in exclusion versus control plots. The decline in soil CO2 flux could be related to reduced fine root production and soil microbial biomass. Microbial community composition also changed with throughfall exclusion in infertile soils, and soil nutrients accumulated more in exclusion versus control plots during the dry season. The net effects on soil carbon storage will depend on the relative strengths of these effects over time. Continued research could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks with changes in precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Cumulative time statistics of surface-point rainfall rates

Statistics on rainfall rates near and above the earth's surface are needed in order to estimate the percentage of time of absorption, or scattering of radio waves that affect radio system design and electrospace management. The most useful averaging time for computing such rates is on the order of 1 min or less. This paper extrapolates excessive short-duration precipitation data to provide such statistics from data routinely reported by the National Weather Service. For the 8766 h in an average year, and for a median or random location in any part of the world, the model described here estimates the fraction of time during which t-minute average rainfall rates exceed any given value.

Rice, P. L.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Possible rainfall reduction through reduced surface temperatures due to overgrazing

Surface temperature reduction in terrain denuded of vegetation (as by overgrazing) is postulated to decrease air convection, reducing cloudiness and rainfall probability during weak meteorological disturbances. By reducing land-sea daytime temperature differences, the surface temperature reduction decreases daytime circulation of thermally driven local winds. The described desertification mechanism, even when limited to arid regions, high albedo soils, and weak meteorological disturbances, can be an effective rainfall reducing process in many areas including most of the Mediterranean lands.

Otterman, J.↗