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DOE OSTI2024

Small-Scale Irrigation: Improving Food Security under Changing Climate and Water Resource Conditions in Ethiopia

We develop a new systems modeling tool that integrates knowledge from hydrology, agriculture, and economics to understand the effect of small-scale irrigation on food security and groundwater sustainability in Ethiopia. Irrigation is an effective tool to mitigate climate impacts and improve agricultural yields. Small-scale irrigation, such as decentralized groundwater irrigation, is well suited for developing countries where smallholder farming communities are widely dispersed and can only afford small infrastructure investment. We study the underlying interdependencies between food and water systems in Ethiopia, where small-holder agriculture is the foundation of the nation’s economy and climate variability has led to great challenges to its food security. Our coupled market and crop model with groundwater module captures the interdependencies of climate, water availability (including irrigation), crop yield, farmland allocation, crop production, transport and consumption based on a system approach across multiple spatial scales. We study the implication of small-scale irrigation to Ethiopia’s food security and water resource conditions as a “what-if” question by comparing an irrigation scenario to the calibrated baseline in 2015, a year of significant drought and crop failure over a large portion of Ethiopia. Our model offers fresh insights into geographic disparities in outcomes that are driven by baseline climate variability, soil fertility, and market conditions. In general, we find that small-scale irrigation can potentially improve food security through increases in food consumption, but it requires policy support to direct the increases of production to domestic consumption while maintaining a sustainable groundwater condition. By using Ethiopia as an example, we show the strength of our model to study how water infrastructure resources support critical functions and service in water and food systems.

Zhang, Ying↗
DOE OSTI2021

Argonne Leadership Computing Facility: 2021 Operational Assessment Report

This Operational Assessment Report describes how the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) met or exceeded every one of its goals for calendar year (CY) 2021 as an advanced scientific computing center. In CY 2021, the ALCF operated its production resource, Theta, an Intel-based Cray XC40 system (11.7-petaflops) augmented with 24 NVIDIA DGX A100-based nodes (3.9-petaflops) that supports diverse workloads, integrating data analytics with artificial intelligence (AI) training and learning in a single platform. In 2021, we began deploying Polaris, our newest 40- petaflops system, and augmented this powerful testbed system with an additional 28 nodes to support the integration of real-time experiments and HPC resources. We also deployed our two largest storage systems yet, named Grand and Eagle, that will bring new services to our users and will power data-driven research for years to come. Last year, Theta delivered a total of 20.8 million node-hours to 16 Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (INCITE) projects and 7.2 million node-hours to ASCR Leadership Computing Challenge (ALCC) projects (32 awarded during the 2020–2021 ALCC year and 17 awarded during the 2021–2022 ALCC year), as well as substantial support to Director’s Discretionary (DD) projects (5.5 million node-hours). As Table ES.1 shows, Theta performed exceptionally well in terms of overall availability (95.1 percent), scheduled availability (99.4 percent), and utilization (98.1 percent; Table 2.1). As of the submission date of this document, ALCF’s user community has published 249 papers in high-quality, peer-reviewed journals and technical proceedings. At the 2021 International Conference for High Performance Computing, Networking, Storage and Analysis (SC’21), Argonne researchers won two HPCwire Readers’ Choice Awards and were part of a Gordon Bell Prize finalist team recognized for developing an AI-enabled, multi-resolution simulation framework for studying complex biomolecular machines. Their framework was used to observe the SARS-CoV-2 replication-transcription machinery in action, by directly integrating experimental data. ALCF also provided a comprehensive program of high-performance computing (HPC) support services to help our community make productive use of the facility’s diverse and growing collection of resources. We are now entering the exascale era, with exascale machines being planned for national laboratories across the country, including Aurora at Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) in 2023. ALCF researchers have been leading and guiding numerous strategic activities that will push the boundaries of what’s possible in computational science and engineering and allow us to deliver science on day one.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulated hydrological dynamics and coupled iron redox cycling impact methane production in an Arctic soil: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication "Simulated hydrological dynamics and coupled iron redox cycling impact methane production in an Arctic soil" in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences. We simulated biogeochemical cycling in arctic soils using the PFLOTRAN geochemical model combined with measurements from previous NGEE Arctic incubations of polygonal permafrost soils in northern Alaska (Zheng et al., 2018). Simulated iron cycling, carbon dioxide production, and methane production were compared with incubation measurements and the parameterized model was then used to simulate coupled iron and carbon cycling over repeated oxic-anoxic cycles at different levels of carbon substrate availability and pH. The most recent data version (2.0) in the archive incorporates changes to the model and simulations as suggested by reviewers during the manuscript review process. These changes include an updated parameterization of the model; a new set of simulations omitting the iron cycle for direct evaluation of how iron cycle processes affect modeled outcomes; and a set of simulations testing different scenarios of carbon substrate availability in addition to scenarios of initial soil pH. This archive contains simulation code, model output, and analysis code for PFLOTRAN simulations. All scripts are python except the batch script for submitting multiprocessor jobs. Note that the model also requires compiled versions of the Alquimia interface and the NGEE Arctic fork of the PFLOTRAN geochemical simulator (see the README_INSTALL document for basic instructions). The Output directory contains eight data files in netCDF format generated by the model. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 10-year research effort (2012-2022) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Do Agrivoltaics Improve Public Support for Solar Photovoltaic Development? Survey Says: Yes!

Agrivoltaic systems allow for the simultaneous production of solar-generated electricity and agriculture. As the climate change related impacts of conventional energy and food production intensify, finding strategies to increase the deployment of solar photovoltaic systems, preserve agricultural land, and minimize competing land uses is urgent. Given the proven technical, economic, and environmental advantages provided by agrivoltaic systems, increased proliferation is anticipated, which necessitates accounting for the nuances of community resistance to solar development on farmland. Minimizing siting conflict and addressing agricultural communities’ concerns will be key in promoting public support for agrivoltaics, as localized acceptance of solar is a critical determinant of project success. This survey study assessed if public support for solar development increases when energy and agricultural production are combined in an agrivoltaic system. Results show that 81.8% of respondents would be more likely to support solar development in their community if it combined the production of both energy and agriculture. This increase in support for solar given the agrivoltaic approach highlights a development strategy that can improve local social acceptance and the deployment rate of solar photovoltaics. Survey respondents prefer agrivoltaic projects that a) are designed to provide economic opportunities for farmers and the local community b) are located on private property or existing agricultural land c) do not threaten local interests and d) ensure fair distribution of economic benefits. Proactively identifying what the public perceives as opportunities and concerns related to agrivoltaic development can help improve the design, business model, and siting of systems in the U.S.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Column separation of tetravalent cerium fission products from trivalent rare earth radio-isotopes

Rapid and efficient isolation of individual rare earth element (REE) radioisotopes from complex mixtures is necessary to support the fields of nuclear forensics, medical isotope production and nuclear physics measurements. The separations must be robust and generate sufficiently high purity samples for subsequent radiological analysis. Current methodologies utilize a laborious two step Ce(IV)-iodate precipitation followed by Ce(IV)-nitrate di-(2-ethylhexyl)phosphoric acid/n-heptane extraction. This work reports an alternative method to isolate Ce fission product isotopes equilibrated with milligrams of cold carrier, from the remaining REE’s using a Ce(IV)/LN-resin (Eichrom Technologies) based separation. Optimization of Ce(IV) loading, REE(III) elution volume and subsequent Ce(III) stripping step utilized 166m Ho tracer. Mixed fission product experiments provided a further test of this LN-resin method, with analysis of purified 141/144 Ce, 147 Nd and 91 Y. Overall, while decontamination factors were lower for the LN-resin method, (vs. the combined precipitation/extraction) the simplicity of the technique and the satisfactory fission product analysis results point to the efficacy of this method.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2024

Narrowing lab–to–market gaps: Device innovations in fuel generation, solar–cell, and photodetection

Academic translational research efforts to industry are often an underlying sought–after goal among various researchers. Through the interchanges of research endeavors between academia–industry, great innovations can/has been achieved that cater to the real–world application by bridging “industrially relevant” problem solving with pursuing fundamental studies. It is pertinent that most of the studies from university–level research works may not translate into demonstrable market products due to various reasons. Funding support, individual researcher goals, socioeconomic factors, and most importantly the technical know–how of generating revenue strategies for startups, are a few of the factors that have slowed the pace of collaborative efforts. However, we believe that the most crucial component is the identification of the critical parameters that solve long–standing problems that hinder the scale–up of the lab scale research into marketable products considering the techno–economic analysis. Here, to illustrate this, we take the three most relevant examples of devices for fuel generation, devices to utilize solar radiation, and devices for detection and other related applications. In this perspective, we provide an in–depth case study of each of these critical parameters to comment on the direction of research avenues that can serve as step–stones for the commercialization of university–level lab research studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A life cycle analysis (LCA) primer for the agricultural community

Consumer demand for sustainably produced agricultural products is increasing. One approach that can be used to evaluate and compare product sustainability is to conduct a life cycle analysis (LCA). The term LCA is broadly used to describe a suite of analytical resources and standardized methods. Life cycle analyses are a transdisciplinary tool which can and are used by all professions but work best when conducted by teams with diverse skills and backgrounds. The objective of this paper is to provide a primer on LCAs for the agricultural community and for LCA practitioners unfamiliar with agronomy. Agricultural LCAs can differ greatly because agricultural products have multiple end uses, complex socio-economic and environmental trade-offs, and can be generated using a variety of different practices, resources, and production systems. Through worldwide agricultural marketing, intricate agronomic supply chains and support systems have been developed to produce, store, and distribute agricultural products. In many situations, the production practices are not linked to the products consumers purchase. This limitation can be partially overcome by conducting an LCA, which is a systematic summation of the multiple environmental impacts associated with the production, use, and disposal of a product. However, the large number and types of analyses can make it difficult for non-practitioners and decision-makers to use and interpret LCA results. Finally, it is important for members of the agricultural community to be aware of these analyses and how they can be used and how they affect product markets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Life Cycle Analysis of Renewable Natural Gas and Lactic Acid Production from Waste Feedstocks

Producing fuels and chemicals from waste is considered economically favorable, due to low feedstock cost, and environmentally favorable, due to avoided emissions from conventional waste management practices. In this study, we evaluate the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction benefits of renewable natural gas (RNG) and lactic acid (LA) production from four types of wet waste feedstocks (wastewater sludge, food waste, swine manure, and fats, oil, and grease [FOG]) via anaerobic digestion (AD) and LA fermentation, respectively. RNG can be used as an alternative to fossil natural gas, while LA from waste feedstocks can displace conventional LA production pathways (mainly from corn via fermentation). Providing comprehensive life cycle GHG emissions of the combinations of waste feedstocks and products through different routes helps identify the GHG hotspots and show where emissions savings come from. The results show that the carbon intensities (CIs) of waste-derived RNG and LA are much lower than those of their counterparts. We estimated the life cycle GHG emissions for RNG to be between -146 and 27 g carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e)/MJ, much lower than the CI of fossil fuels. Waste-derived LA pathways also show substantially lower CIs, ranging from -4.2 to -1.4 kgCO2e/kg LA, compared to the CIs of LA from corn and corn stover (1.2 and 0.3 kgCO2e/kg LA, respectively). We will also discuss that the low CIs of waste-derived products can come from low yields leading to high emission credits. Thus, life cycle analysis results presented per weight of treated waste can be used to support decisions about which waste feedstocks and products are to be used for sustainable waste valorization. In addition, we found that monetary emission reduction credits can play an important role in driving waste valorization.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Isolated Single Metal Atoms Supported on Silica for One Step Non-Oxidative Methane Upgrading to Hydrogen and Value-Added Hydrocarbons

Natural gas in the United States offers substantial economic opportunities due to its abundance but its transportation is challenging because its primary component, methane (CH 4 ), does not liquefy at ambient temperature and typical pressures. As a result, a significant portion of natural gas is either used for heat, flared in remote locations, or remains unutilized, presenting a lost economic opportunity and an environmental harm. Converting natural gas to larger hydrocarbons in an economically competitive manner would enable transportation of products and further boost the economy and reduce environmental footprint. Our research goal is to enable efficient non-oxidative methane conversion (NMC) via catalyst innovation to convert CH 4 in one-step to olefins and aromatics and hydrogen (H 2 ) co-product. The catalysts are made of supported single metal atoms and operated at medium-high temperatures. The single metal atoms achieve methane activation by heterogeneous surface dehydrogenation to generate a hydrocarbon pool and importantly limit coke formation. The integration of novel single atom catalysts in a short contact time microreactor enable unprecedented NMC performance that could lead to economically-feasible, distributed natural gas upgrading by advanced manufacturing and process intensification. Our innovated catalyst and reactor technology promise to tap into previously uneconomic natural gas resources, such as stranded, vented, and flared methane.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reproductive Responses to Increased Shoot Density and Global Change Drivers in a Widespread Clonal Wetland Species, Schoenoplectus americanus

The expansion of many wetland species is a function of both clonal propagation and sexual reproduction. The production of ramets through clonal propagation enables plants to move and occupy space near parent ramets, while seeds produced by sexual reproduction enable species to disperse and colonize open or disturbed sites both near and far from parents. The balance between clonal propagation and sexual reproduction is known to vary with plant density but few studies have focused on reproductive allocation with density changes in response to global climate change. Schoenoplectus americanus is a widespread clonal wetland species in North America and a dominant species in Chesapeake Bay brackish tidal wetlands. Long-term experiments on responses of S. americanus to global change provided the opportunity to compare the two modes of propagation under different treatments. Seed production increased with increasing shoot density, supporting the hypothesis that factors causing increased clonal reproduction (e.g., higher shoot density) stimulate sexual reproduction and dispersal of genets. The increase in allocation to sexual reproduction was mainly the result of an increase in the number of ramets that flowered and not an increase in the number of seeds per reproductive shoot, or the ratio between the number of flowers produced per inflorescence and the number of flowers that developed into seeds. Seed production increased in response to increasing temperatures and decreased or did not change in response to increased CO2 or nitrogen. Results from this comparative study demonstrate that plant responses to global change treatments affect resource allocation and can alter the ability of species to produce seeds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neutronic Safety Analysis of Pu-238 Production at Idaho National Laboratory

This analysis was completed to support the irradiation of plutonium fuel services (PFS) targets in the NEFT in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) as a part of the campaign to restart domestic production of plutonium-238 used in radioisotope power systems (RPS) by the National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) and Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Nuclear Infrastructure Program (NE-3). Referred to as the PFS-ATR-GEN1-NEFT experiment, the assembly was designed to hold 46 PFS targets in the NEFT. The scope of this paper is to outline the MOPY method used to calculate the heat generation rates (HGRs), flux, fission density, and quantify the viability of the target design for Pu-238 production in ATR.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Voluntary Renewable Energy Procurement Programs in Regulated Utility Markets

Multinational corporations are increasingly purchasing renewable energy (RE) to fulfill international commitments, reduce supply chain emissions, limit environmental impact, and secure stable and affordable electricity. The potential scale of global corporate RE purchasing has been estimated to be nearly 100 GW and growing; however, many markets still lack supportive enabling environments for corporations to access RE through on-site project development or private sector transactions. Even where allowed by law, on-site generation may be insufficient due to space and technical constraints, introducing additional challenges. Utility green pricing and utility green tariff programs backed by renewable energy certificates (RECs), referred to as utility green procurement programs (GPPs) in this report, offer powerful market-based solutions to utilities, regulators, and policymakers to provide corporate and other consumers with RE product options while generating revenue to support RE development. As RE markets expand around the globe, GPPs have proven to be effective mechanisms in market regimes, ranging from fully integrated state-owned utilities to broadly liberalized power markets. GPPs utilize RECs, which are a type of energy attribute certificate and closely resemble guarantees of origin, to track and ultimately monetize RE attributes that corporations and other buyers must procure to demonstrate progress against their RE commitments and make public claims of RE use. Time-tested and transparent REC accounting mechanisms provide market confidence, while at the same time offering flexibility to utilities, regulators, and customers for a range of applications. RECs are used in all types of electricity market structures, as indicated in Figure 1, but REC-based program designs and supporting components differ depending on the type of market. Liberalized markets allow for customers to contract directly with generators for electricity and RECs, while traditionally regulated markets with vertically integrated utility structures may have greater restrictions on generation asset ownership and electricity sales. RE markets can be further defined as being either mandatory or voluntary. Mandatory markets require suppliers to deliver specified amounts of RE to grid customers, such as under a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), while voluntary markets involve no legal mandates, but demand is driven by self-imposed customer goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Defining Intermediates of Nitrogenase MoFe Protein during N 2 Reduction under Photochemical Electron Delivery from CdS Quantum Dots

Coupling the nitrogenase MoFe protein to light-harvesting semiconductor nanomaterials replaces the natural electron transfer complex with Fe protein and ATP and provides low potential photoexcited electrons for photocatalytic N 2 reduction. A central question is how direct photochemical electron delivery from nanocrystals to MoFe protein is able to support the multi-electron ammonia production reaction. In this study, low photon flux conditions were used to identify the initial reaction intermediates of CdS quantum dot (QD):MoFe protein nitrogenase complexes under photochemical activation. Illumination of CdS QD:MoFe protein complexes led to redox changes in the MoFe protein active site FeMo-co observed as the gradual decline in E0 resting state intensity that was accompanied by an increase in intensity of a new “g eff = 4.5” EPR signal. The magnetic properties of the g eff = 4.5 signal support assignment as a reduced S = 3/2 state, and reaction modeling was used to define it as a two-electron reduced “E 2 ” intermediate. Use of a MoFe protein variant, ß-188 Cys , which poises the P cluster in the oxidized P + state, demonstrated the P cluster can function as a site of photoexcited electron delivery from CdS to MoFe protein. Overall, the results establish the initial steps for how photoexcited CdS delivers electrons into MoFe protein during reduction of N 2 to ammonia, and the role of electron flux in the photochemical reaction cycle.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Collaboration Website for Muon Catalyzed Fusion and Muon Beam Production

This project sets up a website to support the nascent Muon Catalyzed Fusion collaboration including development of particle accelerators and transport beamlines for muon beams. The website is envisioned as having the general public information pages and private pages for collaboration members. Multimedia elements like images, text animations, and video lectures, covering a broad spectrum of topics will populate the educational site, covering muon facilities, to comprehensive explorations and seminal documents that define the science of Muon Catalyzed Fusion, Acceleration, Applications, Instrumentation, Beamline Design, and beam dynamics design codes. Ensuring compatibility across devices and operating systems, it also features integration with Google Docs for collaboration, a code repository (GitHub), a blog platform with comments (WordPress), the potential for ChatGPT integration and interactive graph plotting with Python Plotty to enhance data visualization. This project will maintain public and protected private pages, due to the proprietary nature of the work or research in progress. The public sections will be built to foster dissemination of information and highlight recent work within the NK Labs collaboration, including lectures, published papers, and regular blog posts with open commenting. The private section will support unpublished or nonpublic research, by facilitating collaborative efforts through integrated Google Docs and Python Plotty for shared graphing work. Ultimately, this project strives to make complex scientific knowledge more accessible to the public, foster enhanced collaboration, and serve as a platform for sharing cutting-edge research in Muon Catalyzed Fusion and Accelerators.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Production of light (anti)nuclei in pp collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $=13 TeV

Understanding the production mechanism of light (anti)nuclei is one of the key challenges of nuclear physics and has important consequences for astrophysics, since it provides an input for indirect dark-matter searches in space. In this paper, the latest results about the production of light (anti)nuclei in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV are presented, focusing on the comparison with the predictions of coalescence and thermal models. For the first time, the coalescence parameters B 2 for deuterons and B 3 for helions are compared with parameter-free theoretical predictions that are directly constrained by the femtoscopic measurement of the source radius in the same event class. A fair description of the data with a Gaussian wave function is observed for both deuteron and helion, supporting the coalescence mechanism for the production of light (anti)nuclei in pp collisions. This method paves the way for future investigations of the internal structure of more complex nuclear clusters, including the hypertriton.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A New Process for Small-Batch Purification of the Medical Isotope Molybdenum-99: Non-Technical Overview

The U.S. medical community depends on a reliable supply of the radioisotope molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) for nuclear medical diagnostic procedures. Mo-99's decay product, technetium-99m (Tc-99m), is used in over 40,000 medical procedures in the United States each day to diagnose heart disease and cancer, to study organ structure and function, and to perform other important medical applications. For example, patients undergoing a common procedure—the cardiac “stress test”—likely have benefited from Tc-99m. Historically, Mo-99 was primarily produced through the fission of uranium-235, in the form of highly enriched uranium (HEU) targets irradiated in research and test reactors. HEU is a proliferation-sensitive material that, if diverted or stolen, could be used as a component of a nuclear weapon. NNSA’s Office of Material Management and Minimization (M3) manages the Molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) Program as part of its mission to minimize the use of HEU in civilian applications. The Mo-99 Program assists global Mo-99 production facilities in converting to non-HEU processes and supports the establishment of domestic supplies of Mo-99 without the use of proliferation-sensitive HEU. As part of this program, M3 funds U.S. national laboratories to provide non-proprietary technical support to U.S. companies working to establish non-HEU-based Mo-99 production capabilities. The results of this research are published on OSTI.gov for the benefit of the Mo-99 community and the public. However, it can be difficult for readers without a scientific background to understand and interpret these publications. In order to increase public understanding of the work being done in M3’s Mo-99 Program, this paper aims to provide an overview of a key, recent national laboratory technical publication in terms that can be understood by readers without a technical background. To accomplish this, the paper first explains key scientific concepts—primarily related to chemistry—that provide a foundation for understanding research in this area. This includes chromatography, absorption vs. adsorption, dissolution and precipitation, and liquid-liquid extraction. Drawing on these concepts, the paper then provides an explanation for non-technical audiences of the Argonne National Laboratory publication entitled Recovery of High Specific Activity Molybdenum-99 from Accelerator-Induced Fission on Low-Enriched Uranium for Technetium-99m Generators (Brown, M.A. et al., 2021) and related article Separation and Purification of Mo-99 Produced from Natural U3O8 Targets via Photo-Fission (Brown, M.A. et al., 2021).

Stamler, Bradley↗
DOE OSTI2020

Supporting Bioproducts Industry Growth with a System Dynamics Decision-Support Tool

A bio-based economy requires chemical products as well as fuels to be produced from biomass. Although a variety of universities, government agencies, start-ups and established firms have engaged in bioproduct development, many projects have failed to reach the point of commercialization and commercialized bioproducts struggle to capture and maintain market share. To date, there has been no general research into the factors that contribute to bioproduct failure or success. This work presents the Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) system dynamics model, a decision-support tool that simulates the bioproduct development process from pre-piloting research through construction of the first commercial-scale plant, as well as the processes of obtaining funding from investors and government agencies. The core of the BTD is a feedback loop between bioproduct developers and funders, which relates development progress measured with indicators such as net present value to funders’ decisions to continue investing. External factors such as feedstock prices, market size and growth, and the existence of bioproduct consumers also influence a development project’s chances of receiving follow-on funding. Virtually any bioproduct can be represented with the BTD: direct replacements, performance-advantaged products, niche and commodity markets can all be modeled. The goal of the BTD project is to inform decisions made by developers in both established firms and start-ups, investors, government agencies, and other stakeholders interested in growing the nascent U.S. bioproducts industry. This talk will cover the general structure and functionality of the BTD, and present results from an analysis performed with the BTD to demonstrate its use as a decision-support tool and the insights it can provide. The goal of the analysis is to identify the most critical factors that lead to direct replacement and performance-advantaged bioproduct projects emerging successfully from the “Valley of Death”, and to determine if these factors differ between the two bioproduct types.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Infrastructure and DFLAW Support at Hanford - 20443

Manhattan Project era infrastructure systems are degrading at an accelerated pace across the Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Management complex. Revitalizing, rejuvenating and right-sizing these systems to ensure reliability for ongoing cleanup missions is a major focus at the 580-square- mile Hanford Site in southeast Washington State. The push to complete construction, commissioning, startup, and operation of facilities and systems in the Direct-Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) program at Hanford by 2023 requires considerable coordination among site contractors and a significant investment in infrastructure. The passage of time also poses a challenge. It has been about 75 years since facilities were first operated at the site, and approximately 40 years of plutonium production created a legacy of unidentified active and abandoned underground obstacles and waste sites that must be avoided when building and upgrading the infrastructure. Converting infrastructure systems originally built to support plutonium production from the 1940's to the 1980's and upgrading those systems to optimize technology is an ever-changing balance of funding profiles, available resources and execution strategies. The DOE Richland Operations Office (RL) has long recognized the need for increased investment in Hanford Site infrastructure to support the future processing of approximately 56 million gallons of waste currently stored in large underground tanks. When DFLAW is fully operational, safe and reliable infrastructure systems will be needed to ensure continuity of operations around the clock, 365 days a year. These include roadways, water, power, sewer, information technology systems and facilities. To ensure the readiness of Hanford's infrastructure to support treating tank waste in the next three years, 15 projects were identified with a combined value of $133.8 million. Through calendar year 2019, 7 infrastructure projects have been substantially completed and the remaining 8 projects, with a remaining value of $103.8 million, are scheduled to be completed by December 2023. RL and its site services/infrastructure contractor, Mission Support Alliance (MSA), regularly evaluate the needs of the DFLAW program and other Hanford Site missions to ensure the highest priority systems are addressed. In addition to a fast-approaching deadline for round-the-clock treatment operations, RL and MSA face another significant infrastructure challenge. As cleanup is being completed in a 220-square-mile area called the River Corridor, most of the cleanup operations going forward will occur in a 20-square-mile area in the center of the Hanford Site, known as the Central Plateau. Infrastructure systems are becoming more congested in an already overcrowded area. This paper/presentation will outline some of the challenges Hanford faces while executing infrastructure reliability projects. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗