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NASA NTRS2019

Global Carbon Budget 2019

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E(FF)) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (E(LUC)), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S(OCEAN)) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S(LAND)) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B(IM)), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), E(FF) was 9.5±0.5 GtC/yr, E(LUC) 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, G(ATM) 4.9±0.02 GtC/yr (2.3±0.01 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) 2.5±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) 3.2±0.6 GtC/yr, with a budget imbalance B(IM) of 0.4 GtC/yr indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in E(FF) was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC/yr, reaching 10 GtC/yr for the first time in history, E(LUC) was 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC/yr (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, G(ATM) was 5.1±0.2 GtC/yr (2.4±0.1 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) was 2.6±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) was 3.5±0.7 GtC/yr, with a B(IM) of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in E(FF) of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC/yr persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).

global carbon budget 2019↗
NASA NTRS1999

Formation of Amino Acid Thioesters for Prebiotic Peptide Synthesis: Catalysis By Amino Acid Products

The origin of life can be described as a series of events in which a prebiotic chemical process came increasingly under the control of its catalytic products. In our search for this prebiotic process that yielded catalytic takeover products (such as polypeptides), we have been investigating a reaction system that generates peptide-forming amino acid thioesters from formaldehyde, glycolaldehyde, and ammonia in the presence of thiols. As shown below, this model process begins by aldol condensation of formaldehyde and glycolaldehyde to give trioses and releases. These sugars then undergo beta-dehydration yielding their respective alpha-ketoaldehydes. Addition of ammonia to the alpha-ketoaldehydes yields imines which can either: (a) rearrange in the presence of thesis to give amino acid thioesters or (be react with another molecule of aldehyde to give imidazoles. This 'one-pot' reaction system operates under mild aqueous conditions, and like modem amino acid biosynthesis, uses sugar intermediates which are converted to products by energy-yielding redox reactions. Recently, we discovered that amino acids, such as the alanine reaction product, catalyze the first and second steps of the process. In the presence of ammonia the process also generates other synthetically useful products, like the important biochemical -- pyruvic acid.

Weber, Arthur L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Unified Simulation and Analysis Framework for Deep Space Navigation Design

As the technology that enables advanced deep space autonomous navigation continues to develop and the requirements for such capability continues to grow, there is a clear need for a modular expandable simulation framework. This tool's purpose is to address multiple measurement and information sources in order to capture system capability. This is needed to analyze the capability of competing navigation systems as well as to develop system requirements, in order to determine its effect on the sizing of the integrated vehicle. The development for such a framework is built upon Model-Based Systems Engineering techniques to capture the architecture of the navigation system and possible state measurements and observations to feed into the simulation implementation structure. These models also allow a common environment for the capture of an increasingly complex operational architecture, involving multiple spacecraft, ground stations, and communication networks. In order to address these architectural developments, a framework of agent-based modules is implemented to capture the independent operations of individual spacecraft as well as the network interactions amongst spacecraft. This paper describes the development of this framework, and the modeling processes used to capture a deep space navigation system. Additionally, a sample implementation describing a concept of network-based navigation utilizing digitally transmitted data packets is described in detail. This developed package shows the capability of the modeling framework, including its modularity, analysis capabilities, and its unification back to the overall system requirements and definition.

Anzalone, Evan↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Implementation of Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Space Launch System Vehicle Design

The Space Launch System uses a Maximum Likelihood Estimation process in conjunction with Design of Experiments to develop statistically representative vehicles for the Block 1 configuration. These vehicles are then used to estimate maximum load conditions for simulating stressing cases in other simulations. This paper discusses the modeling process and how SLS captures manufacturing uncertainty in the launch vehicle design. It also provides an overview of the differences between Block 1 statistical representations. This paper also discusses proper grid choice as well as which uncertainties drive the vehicle design.

Stein, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Experimental validation of a phenomenological model of the plasma contacting process

A preliminary model of the plasma coupling process is presented which describes the phenomena observed in ground-based experiments using a hollow cathode plasma contactor to collect electrons from a dilute ambient plasma under conditions where magnetic field effects can be neglected. The locations of the double-sheath region boundaries are estimated and correlated with experimental results. Ion production mechanisms in the plasma plume caused by discharge electrons from the contactor cathode and by electrons streaming into the plasma plume through the double-sheath from the ambient plasma are also discussed.

Williams, John D.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Conceptual Design Methods and the Application of a Tradespace Modeling Tool for Deep Space Missions

Concept studies for deep space missions are typically time-consuming and costly, given the variety of missions and uniqueness of each design. Yet, in an increasingly cost-constrained environment, it is critical to identify the most scientifically valuable and cost-effective designs early in the design process. Modeling is an integral part in helping to identify the most desirable design option. While some spacecraft design models currently exist for Earth-orbiting spacecraft, there has been less success with deep space missions. Instead, these missions require a modified design and modeling approach to enable the same construction of a comprehensive, yet credible, mission tradespace. This paper presents an approach for efficiently constructing such a mission tradespace. In addition to a proposed design and modeling approach, three case study missions are presented including a solar orbiter, a Europa orbiter, and a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) sample return mission.

space vehicles↗
NASA NTRS1996

Spray Combustion Modeling with VOF and Finite-Rate Chemistry

A spray atomization and combustion model is developed based on the volume-of-fluid (VOF) transport equation with finite-rate chemistry model. The gas-liquid interface mass, momentum and energy conservation laws are modeled by continuum surface force mechanisms. A new solution method is developed such that the present VOF model can be applied for all-speed range flows. The objectives of the present study are: (1) to develop and verify the fractional volume-of-fluid (VOF) cell partitioning approach into a predictor-corrector algorithm to deal with multiphase (gas-liquid) free surface flow problems; (2) to implement the developed unified algorithm in a general purpose computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code, Finite Difference Navier-Stokes (FDNS), with droplet dynamics and finite-rate chemistry models; and (3) to demonstrate the effectiveness of the present approach by simulating benchmark problems of jet breakup/spray atomization and combustion. Modeling multiphase fluid flows poses a significant challenge because a required boundary must be applied to a transient, irregular surface that is discontinuous, and the flow regimes considered can range from incompressible to highspeed compressible flows. The flow-process modeling is further complicated by surface tension, interfacial heat and mass transfer, spray formation and turbulence, and their interactions. The major contribution of the present method is to combine the novel feature of the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method and the Eulerian/Lagrangian method into a unified algorithm for efficient noniterative, time-accurate calculations of multiphase free surface flows valid at all speeds. The proposed method reformulated the VOF equation to strongly couple two distinct phases (liquid and gas), and tracks droplets on a Lagrangian frame when spray model is required, using a unified predictor-corrector technique to account for the non-linear linkages through the convective contributions of VOF. The discontinuities within the sharp interface will be modeled as a volume force to avoid stiffness. Formations of droplets, tracking of droplet dynamics and modeling of the droplet breakup/evaporation, are handled through the same unified predictor-corrector procedure. Thus the new algorithm is non-iterative and is flexible for general geometries with arbitrarily complex topology in free surfaces. The FDNS finite-difference Navier-Stokes code is employed as the baseline of the current development. Benchmark test cases of shear coaxial LOX/H2 liquid jet with atomization/combustion and impinging jet test cases are investigated in the present work. Preliminary data comparisons show good qualitative agreement between data and the present analysis. It is indicative from these results that the present method has great potential to become a general engineering design analysis and diagnostics tool for problems involving spray combustion.

Chen, Yen-Sen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lessons Learned from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s Product Development Lead Training Schedule and Cost Development Workshop: Continuous Improvement

This presentation provides a status of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) effort to increase foundational knowledge of Product Development Leads (PDLs) in schedule and cost management including earned value management (EVM). In 2012, GSFC’s Engineering and Technology Directorate (ETD) implemented an in-house training program to prepare PDLs for managing the technical, cost, schedule, and risk aspects of spaceflight systems to meet their subsystem commitments. Developed in-house, the PDL training program provides an integrated approach to requirements development, risk, schedule and cost management, EVM, performance tracking, and other areas. The program has been held twice yearly since its inception with 531 participating and 451 completing the curriculum. In 2017, the program won the Robert H. Goddard award for Quality and Process Improvement. Program development and evolution were presented in the 2018 NASA Schedule and Cost Symposium. The presentation was so well received that this year we focus on one workshop within the program: Schedule and Cost Development, including EVM. We examine the on-going logic modeling process and how participant and stakeholder data influence workshop content and design, and how the disciplines of schedule and cost contribute to mission success. In this presentation we refresh you on how the approach integrates lecture, small group discussion, estimating, case study exercises, and problem solving. We update you on the data collected from participants and stakeholders, and we discuss how we use these data to measure training effectiveness. Specific topics include: • How the logic model is used as the backbone for continuous program improvement, • How feedback influences implementation and curriculum updates, • How data collection and analysis inform workshop content and development, including participant discoveries of EVM data, • How including the resource analyst and planner in the product development team supports project success.

Lessons Learned↗
NASA NTRS1977

Study of photon correlation techniques for processing of laser velocimeter signals

The objective was to provide the theory and a system design for a new type of photon counting processor for low level dual scatter laser velocimeter (LV) signals which would be capable of both the first order measurements of mean flow and turbulence intensity and also the second order time statistics: cross correlation auto correlation, and related spectra. A general Poisson process model for low level LV signals and noise which is valid from the photon-resolved regime all the way to the limiting case of nonstationary Gaussian noise was used. Computer simulation algorithms and higher order statistical moment analysis of Poisson processes were derived and applied to the analysis of photon correlation techniques. A system design using a unique dual correlate and subtract frequency discriminator technique is postulated and analyzed. Expectation analysis indicates that the objective measurements are feasible.

Mayo, W. T., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Application of SIR-C SAR to Hydrology

The progress, results and future plans regarding the following objectives are presented: (1) Determine and compare soil moisture patterns within one or more humid watersheds using SAR data, ground-based measurements, and hydrologic modeling; (2) Use radar data to characterize the hydrologic regime within a catchment and to identify the runoff producing characteristics of humid zone watersheds; and (3) Use radar data as the basis for scaling up from small scale, near-point process models to larger scale water balance models necessary to define and quantify the land phase of GCM's (Global Circulation Models).

Engman, Edwin T.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Software Smarts

Under an SBIR (Small Business Innovative Research) contract with Johnson Space Center, Knowledge Based Systems Inc. (KBSI) developed an intelligent software environment for modeling and analyzing mission planning activities, simulating behavior, and, using a unique constraint propagation mechanism, updating plans with each change in mission planning activities. KBSI developed this technology into a commercial product, PROJECTLINK, a two-way bridge between PROSIm, KBSI's process modeling and simulation software and leading project management software like Microsoft Project and Primavera's SureTrak Project Manager.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2006

Engine System Model Development for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

In order to design, analyze, and evaluate conceptual Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) engine systems, an improved NTP design and analysis tool has been developed. The NTP tool utilizes the Rocket Engine Transient Simulation (ROCETS) system tool and many of the routines from the Enabler reactor model found in Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS). Improved non-nuclear component models and an external shield model were added to the tool. With the addition of a nearly complete system reliability model, the tool will provide performance, sizing, and reliability data for NERVA-Derived NTP engine systems. A new detailed reactor model is also being developed and will replace Enabler. The new model will allow more flexibility in reactor geometry and include detailed thermal hydraulics and neutronics models. A description of the reactor, component, and reliability models is provided. Another key feature of the modeling process is the use of comprehensive spreadsheets for each engine case. The spreadsheets include individual worksheets for each subsystem with data, plots, and scaled figures, making the output very useful to each engineering discipline. Sample performance and sizing results with the Enabler reactor model are provided including sensitivities. Before selecting an engine design, all figures of merit must be considered including the overall impacts on the vehicle and mission. Evaluations based on key figures of merit of these results and results with the new reactor model will be performed. The impacts of clustering and external shielding will also be addressed. Over time, the reactor model will be upgraded to design and analyze other NTP concepts with CERMET and carbide fuel cores.

Nelson, Karl W.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Study of design and control of remote manipulators. Modeling manipulator arms with distributed flexibility for design and control

The interactions of control system and distributed flexible structural dynamics is explored for mechanical arms. A modeling process using 4 x 4 transfer matrices is described which permits the closed loop response of many current arm configurations to be evaluated. Root locus, frequency response, modal shapes, and time impulse response have all been obtained from the digital computer implementation of this model, which is oriented to arm design and allows for easy variation of the arm configuration through data cards. The model corresponds with experimentally observed natural frequencies with an average error of less than 5% in the first three flexible modes in the seven cases considered. The model was used to explore the limits imposed by structural flexibility on a nondimensionalized two link arm with one and two joints for planar motion.

Book, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Geomorphic and Aqueous Chemistry of a Portion of the Upper Rio Tinto System, Spain

Observations from the two Mars rovers, Spirit and Opportunity, combined with discoveries of extensive hydrated sulfate deposits from OMEGA and CRISM show that aqueous deposition and alteration involving acidic systems and sulfate deposition has been a key contributor to the martian geologic record. Rio Tinto, Spain, provides a process model for formation of sulfates on Mars by evaporation of acidic waters within shallow fluvial pools, particularly during dry seasons. We present results from a detailed investigation of an upper portion of the Rio Tinto, focusing on geomorphology, clastic sediment transport, and acidic aqueous processes. We also lay out lessons-learned for under-standing sulfate formation and alteration on Mars.

Osburn, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Using EO-1 Hyperion to Simulate HyspIRI Products for a Coniferous Forest: The Fraction of PAR Absorbed by Chlorophyll (fAPAR(sub chl)) and Leaf Water Content(LWC)

This paper presents development of prototype products for terrestrial ecosystems in preparation for the future imaging spectrometer planned for the Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) mission. We present a successful demonstration example in a coniferous forest of two product prototypes: fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorbed by chlorophyll of a canopy (fAPARchl) and leaf water content (LWC), for future HyspIRI implementation at 60-m spatial resolution. For this, we used existing 30-m resolution imaging spectrometer data available from the Earth Observing One (EO-1) Hyperion satellite to simulate and prototype the level one radiometrically corrected radiance (L1R) images expected from the HyspIRI visible through shortwave infrared spectrometer. The HyspIRIlike images were atmospherically corrected to obtain surface reflectance and spectrally resampled to produce 60-m reflectance images for wavelength regions that were comparable to all seven of the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land bands. Thus, we developed MODIS-like surface reflectance in seven spectral bands at the HyspIRI-like spatial scale, which was utilized to derive fAPARchl and LWC with a coupled canopy-leaf radiative transfer model (PROSAIL2) for the coniferous forest. With this paper, we provide additional evidence that the fAPARchl product is more realistic in describing the physiologically active canopy than the traditional fAPAR parameter for the whole canopy (fAPARcanopy), and thus, it should replace it in ecosystem process models to reduce uncertainties in terrestrial carbon cycle and ecosystem studies.

Earth Observing One↗
NASA NTRS2011

Using EO-1 Hyperion to Simulate HyspIRI Products for a Coniferous Forest: The Fraction of PAR Absorbed by Chlorophyll (fAPAR(sub chl)) and Leaf Water Content (LWC)

This study presents development of prototype products for terrestrial ecosystems in preparation for the future imaging spectrometer planned for the Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) mission. We present a successful demonstration example in a coniferous forest of two product prototypes: fraction of photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) absorbed by chlorophyll of a canopy (fAPAR(sub chl)) and leaf water content (LWC), for future HyspIRI implementation at 60 m spatial resolution. For this, we used existing 30 m resolution imaging spectrometer data available from the Earth Observing One (EO-1) Hyperion satellite to simulate and prototype the level one radiometrically corrected radiance (L1R) images expected from the HyspIRI visible through shortwave infrared spectrometer. The HyspIRI-like images were atmospherically corrected to obtain surface reflectance, and spectrally resampled to produce 60 m reflectance images for wavelength regions that were comparable to all seven of the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land bands. Thus, we developed MODIS-like surface reflectance in seven spectral bands at the HyspIRI-like spatial scale, which was utilized to derive fAPARchl and LWC with a coupled canopy-leaf radiative transfer model (PROSAIL2) for the coniferous forest[1]. With this study, we provide additional evidence that the fAPARchl product is more realistic for describing the physiologically active canopy than the traditional fAPAR parameter for the whole canopy (fAPAR(sub canopy)), and thus should replace it in ecosystem process models to reduce uncertainties in terrestrial carbon cycle studies and ecosystem studies.

Zhang, Qingyuan↗
NASA NTRS2005

NASA Land Information System (LIS) Water Availability to Support Reclamation ET Estimation

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation identified the remote sensing of evapotranspiration (ET) as an important water flux for study and designated a test site in the Lower Colorado River basin. A consortium of groups will work together with the goal to develop more accurate and cost effective techniques using the enhanced spatial and temporal coverage afforded by remote sensing. ET is a critical water loss flux where improved estimation should lead to better management of Reclamation responsibilities. There are several areas where NASA satellite and modeling data may be useful to meet Reclamation's objectives for improved ET estimation. In this paper we outline one possible contribution to use NASA's data integration capability of the Land Information System (LIS) to provide a merger of observational (in situ and satellite) with physical process models to provide estimates of ET and other water availability outputs (e.g., runoff, soil moisture) retrospectively, in near real-time, and also providing short-term predictions.

Toll, David↗