Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Probabilistic models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

MEDPRAT Treatment Clusters: Improving Representation of Mission Medical Risk

INTRODUCTION The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) implements a computational model that aims to quantify spaceflight medical risk by utilizing probabilistic techniques to simulate critical event incidence and outcomes over thousands of simulated mission trials. The goal of MEDPRAT is to characterize mission medical risk and provide insight into medical resource utilization. In order to analyze the medical resource space, treatment must be mapped from each simulated condition, and resources consumed as a result of this treatment must be tracked throughout the course of the mission. A new MEDPRAT feature, ‘treatment clusters’, provide a more sophisticated method of defining the structure and interaction between resources, more closely mimicking the way treatment is carried out clinically. METHODS Treatment clusters expand on the two existing treatment groupings (combination and alternate) adding a new grouping: bundled treatment. Treatment clusters may be combined to any depth, giving users the ability to specify complex treatment trees whose behavior is governed by several user-specified parameters. This approach emphasizes reusability, as treatment clusters, once defined, can be used to create more complex treatment trees or applied to many conditions. By configuring parameters for contribution, efficacy, necessity, primacy, and equivalence, resource relationships and dependencies can be more accurately represented, thereby allowing users to build capabilities with desired treatment properties, for example an intravenous capability for conditions such as anaphylaxis, acute radiation syndrome, etc. MEDPRAT v1.0 remains backward compatible with existing treatment structures, giving users the ability to define new treatment clusters as evidence becomes available, without having to recode their existing treatment databases. In addition to facilitating the representation of more complex treatment options, by pairing treatment clusters with the internal optimization routine, the MEDPRAT set selector, medical resources can be identified as organized in bundles, where appropriate, so that optimized resource sets include groups of highly-dependent resources only when all resources of the group are together. For example, it would be wasteful to include ultrasound gel but not an ultrasound machine, since the gel provides no benefit as a treatment without the ultrasound machine. With treatment clusters, the user may require that both resources are available to provide any benefit as treatment, so that if one resource is optimized out of the set, the other resource will be optimized out as well. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS We will report on MEDPRAT treatment clusters used in a bundling study under the IMPACT project of the ExMC element. We will discuss an example of a complex treatment tree. Through the implementation of this feature MEDPRAT enables treatment to be defined and applied in a way that is more representative of the real world, providing more accurate insight into mission medical risk and the medical resource space.

Lawrence Leinweber↗
NASA NTRS2011

Integration of NASA-Developed Lifing Technology for PM Alloys into DARWIN (registered trademark)

In recent years, Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) have worked independently on the development of probabilistic life prediction methods for materials used in gas turbine engine rotors. The two organizations have addressed different but complementary technical challenges. This report summarizes a brief investigation into the current status of the relevant technology at SwRI and GRC with a view towards a future integration of methods and models developed by GRC for probabilistic lifing of powder metallurgy (P/M) nickel turbine rotor alloys into the DARWIN (Darwin Corporation) software developed by SwRI.

McClung, R. Craig↗
NASA NTRS1993

Reliability based structural optimization - A simplified safety index approach

A probabilistic optimal design methodology for complex structures modelled with finite element methods is presented. The main emphasis is on developing probabilistic analysis tools suitable for optimization. An advanced second-moment method is employed to evaluate the failure probability of the performance function. The safety indices are interpolated using the information at mean and most probable failure point. The minimum weight design with an improved safety index limit is achieved by using the extended interior penalty method of optimization. Numerical examples covering beam and plate structures are presented to illustrate the design approach. The results obtained by using the proposed approach are compared with those obtained by using the existing probabilistic optimization techniques.

Reddy, Mahidhar V.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Pattern-recognition techniques applied to performance monitoring of the DSS 13 34-meter antenna control assembly

The results of applying pattern recognition techniques to diagnose fault conditions in the pointing system of one of the Deep Space network's large antennas, the DSS 13 34-meter structure, are discussed. A previous article described an experiment whereby a neural network technique was used to identify fault classes by using data obtained from a simulation model of the Deep Space Network (DSN) 70-meter antenna system. Described here is the extension of these classification techniques to the analysis of real data from the field. The general architecture and philosophy of an autonomous monitoring paradigm is described and classification results are discussed and analyzed in this context. Key features of this approach include a probabilistic time-varying context model, the effective integration of signal processing and system identification techniques with pattern recognition algorithms, and the ability to calibrate the system given limited amounts of training data. Reported here are recognition accuracies in the 97 to 98 percent range for the particular fault classes included in the experiments.

Mellstrom, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

An Advanced Hierarchical Hybrid Environment for Reliability and Performance Modeling

The key issue we intended to address in our proposed research project was the ability to model and study logical and probabilistic aspects of large computer systems. In particular, we wanted to focus mostly on automatic solution algorithms based on a state-space exploration as their first step, in addition to the more traditional discrete-event simulation approaches commonly employed in industry. One explicitly-stated goal was to extend by several orders of magnitude the size of models that can be solved exactly, using a combination of techniques: 1) Efficient exploration and storage of the state space using new data structures that require an amount of memory sublinear in the number states; and 2) Exploitation of the existing symmetries in the matrices describing the system behavior using Kronecker operators. Not only we have been successful in achieving the above goals, but we exceeded them in many respects.

Ciardo, Gianfranco↗
NASA NTRS2018

Demonstration of Probabilistic Sensitivity Analyses Tools on the Structural Response of a Representative Inflatable Space Structure

This work provides an initial step toward demonstrating a probabilistic numerical simulation capability to support trade studies and the development of a certification plan for inflatable space habitats. This study concentrates on interpreting the results from probabilistic analysis and numerical simulation tools to identify parameter sensitivities for a novel inflatable airlock concept, specifically the Non‐Axisymmetric Inflatable Pressure Structure (NAIPS) that was designed and tested under NASA's Minimalistic Advanced Softgoods Hatch (MASH) Program. A brief overview of the finite element model is provided along with the probabilistic sensitivity analysis approach. The sensitivity studies required a model that was numerically stable and efficient enough that hundreds of simulations could be completed in the allotted time. Therefore, the existing full model was simplified by: extracting a quarter symmetry section of the dome; focusing on a single inflation pressure; and replacing the non‐linear material stress‐strain curves with linear, isotropic materials defined by elastic moduli. Responses of interest include the sensitivity of various structural component loads to material properties, cord lengths, inflation pressure and friction. Multiple sensitivity studies were completed and three are reported here. The first study focused on utilizing wide input parameter ranges to provide an opportunity to assess numerical robustness. The next two studies narrowed the parameter ranges to enable focus on understanding uncertainty at a fixed operating condition. The completion of the sensitivity studies improved understanding of the interdependence of multiple inputs on the responses. In addition, numerical stability of the simulations over wide parameter ranges, shows the feasibility of incorporating uncertainty‐based methods in the design and certification of inflatable space habitats. With the experience and trust gained, it is anticipated that these same methods will be applied to nonlinear, orthotropic models in the future.

Lyle, Karen H.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Near Earth Asteroid Characterization for Threat Assessment

Physical characteristics of NEAs are an essential input to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry and to assess the risk of impact but determining these properties requires a non-trivial investment of time and resources. The characteristics relevant to these models include size, density, strength and ablation coefficient. Some of these characteristics cannot be directly measured, but rather must be inferred from related measurements of asteroids and/or meteorites. Furthermore, for the majority of NEAs, only the basic measurements exist so often properties must be inferred from statistics of the population of more completely characterized objects. The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project at NASA Ames Research Center has developed a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) model in order to assess the risk of asteroid impact. Our PAIR model and its use to develop probability distributions of impact risk are discussed in other contributions to PDC 2017 (e.g., Mathias et al.). Here we utilize PAIR to investigate which NEA characteristics are important for assessing the impact threat by investigating how changes in these characteristics alter the damage predicted by PAIR. We will also provide an assessment of the current state of knowledge of the NEA characteristics of importance for asteroid threat assessment. The relative importance of different properties as identified using PAIR will be combined with our assessment of the current state of knowledge to identify potential high impact investigations. In addition, we will discuss an ongoing effort to collate the existing measurements of NEA properties of interest to the planetary defense community into a readily accessible database.

Asteroid characterization↗
NASA NTRS2022

COMPACT KNN V2: Analogy-Based Cost Estimation Model for CubeSats

The CubeSat Or Microsat Probabilistic and AnalogiesCost Tool, or COMPACT, is a NASA Headquarters fundedeffort to fill the gap in cost estimating capabilities for CubeSats,as well as other microsat spacecraft. The COMPACT team hasfocused mainly on CubeSats to date, and has collected technical,programmatic and cost data on dozens of flown CubeSatsmissions led by NASA, research labs, and universities. In late2019, the team released the first tool prototype which uses a nonparametricregression technique, k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN),on actual data from historical CubeSat missions to produceearly ballpark analogy-based cost estimates for new CubeSatconcepts. Since the KNN prototype was first released, theCOMPACT team has normalized 17 new missions to be addedto the model in COMPACT V2. COMPACT V2 also featureschanges to the KNN tool algorithm including the introduction ofPrincipal Component Analysis (PCA) to the model developmentprocess and changes to the input parameters which have madethe analogy results more intuitive and have improved modelperformance. This paper describes the current COMPACTKNN dataset, improvements made to the model in COMPACTV2, an assessment of current model performance, and a forwardlook at COMPACT’s planned future enhancements.

Hooke, Melissa↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Landslide Runout Analysis Using Remote Sensing for Lower and Upper Barun Lakes

Landslides are recognized as common triggers of glacial lake outburst floods in high mountain regions, but the remoteness of dangerous glacial lakes makes monitoring and disaster management very difficult. Using a very high resolution digital elevation model produced from a series of stereo satellite images, we simulate debris flows and rock avalanche runout around two very dangerous lakes in high mountain Nepal. We constrain particularly likely sources of these slope failures to simulate 79,800 potential debris flows and rock avalanches of volumes ranging from 1,000 m3 to 1,000,000 m3. This allowed us to identify zones in and around dangerous glacial lakes that are most exposed to landslide runout hazards, along with the most frequent source areas that produced landslides that may run into either of the two glacial lakes. Although our empirical-statistical model presented limitations that numerical models attempt to overcome, our probabilistic approach combined with a very high resolution DEM may shed new light on how to identify sources and impact areas of debris flows and rock avalanches that may cascade into downstream disasters.

landslides↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilizing Earth Observations to Model Probable Coastal Wetland Extent, Sea-Level Rise Inundation Risk, and Assess Impacts on Historic Hawaiian Lands

Climate induced sea-level rise poses a risk to coastal areas on the Island of Hawai’i, and many of the island’s historic cultural lands are in danger of becoming overtaken by wetlands or inundation. In partnership with the County of Hawai’i, State of Hawai’i Department of Land and Natural Resources, and Arizona State University, NASA DEVELOP mapped wetland extent and short-term sea-level rise inundation risk. We utilized Earth observations over a 10-year span (2013 – 2022) that included the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies and MEaSUREs Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature datasets, United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hawaii Digital Elevation Models (DEM), and in situ tidal gauge data. Flood risk index values were acquired for 5 known Hawai’i flood events between 2019 – 2021 from the Global Flood Mapper tool on Google Earth Engine. We used a random forest model to predict short-term sea-level rise inundation risk along the entire coast of Hawai’i. Current wetland extents and probabilistic locations of new wetlands were modeled with the most recently available data from PlanetScope Surface Reflectance optical imagery (2022), USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) 10m DEM (2020), temperature and precipitation data from the Hawai’i Climate Atlas, and soils data from the Hawai’i Soil Atlas (2014) using the Wetland Intrinsic Potential tool. Results indicated locations that had the highest probability of wetland creation. The end products aimed to help the partners prioritize efforts to meeting regulation requirements for wetlands protection, evaluate the inundation risk to historical features, and support decision-making for their Shoreline Setback and Climate Adaption plans.

Lisa Tanh↗
NASA NTRS2012

Global CO2 Distributions over Land from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT)

January 2009 saw the successful launch of the first space-based mission specifically designed for measuring greenhouse gases, the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). We present global land maps (Level 3 data) of column-averaged CO2 concentrations (X(sub CO2)) derived using observations from the GOSAT ACOS retrieval algorithm, for July through December 2009. The applied geostatistical mapping approach makes it possible to generate maps at high spatial and temporal resolutions that include uncertainty measures and that are derived directly from the Level 2 observations, without invoking an atmospheric transport model or estimates of CO2 uptake and emissions. As such, they are particularly well suited for comparison studies. Results show that the Level 3 maps for July to December 2009 on a lO x 1.250 grid, at six-day resolution capture much of the synoptic scale and regional variability of X(sub CO2), in addition to its overall seasonality. The uncertainty estimates, which reflect local data coverage, X(sub CO2) variability, and retrieval errors, indicate that the Southern latitudes are relatively well-constrained, while the Sahara Desert and the high Northern latitudes are weakly-constrained. A probabilistic comparison to the PCTM/GEOS-5/CASA-GFED model reveals that the most statistically significant discrepancies occur in South America in July and August, and central Asia in September to December. While still preliminary, these results illustrate the usefulness of a high spatiotemporal resolution, data-driven Level 3 data product for direct interpretation and comparison of satellite observations of highly dynamic parameters such as atmospheric CO2.

Hammerling, Dorit M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Flood Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides, Rain and Sea Level Rise for a Tidal River Estuary

Cities and towns along the tidal Hudson River are highly vulnerable to flooding through the combination of storm tides and high streamflows, compounded by sea level rise. Here a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, validated by comparing peak water levels for 76 historical storms, is applied in a probabilistic flood hazard assessment. In simulations, the model merges streamflows and storm tides from tropical cyclones (TCs), offshore extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and inland "wet extratropical" cyclones (WETCs). The climatology of possible ETC and WETC storm events is represented by historical events (1931-2013), and simulations include gauged streamflows and inferred ungauged streamflows (based on watershed area) for the Hudson River and its tributaries. The TC climatology is created using a stochastic statistical model to represent a wider range of storms than is contained in the historical record. TC streamflow hydrographs are simulated for tributaries spaced along the Hudson, modeled as a function of TC attributes (storm track, sea surface temperature, maximum wind speed) using a statistical Bayesian approach. Results show WETCs are important to flood risk in the upper tidal river (e.g., Albany, New York), ETCs are important in the estuary (e.g., New York City) and lower tidal river, and TCs are important at all locations due to their potential for both high surge and extreme rainfall. The raising of floods by sea level rise is shown to be reduced by approximately 30-60 percent at Albany due to the dominance of streamflow for flood risk. This can be explained with simple channel flow dynamics, in which increased depth throughout the river reduces frictional resistance, thereby reducing the water level slope and the upriver water level.

Tidal river↗
NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic failure assessment with application to solid rocket motors

A quantitative methodology is being developed for assessment of risk of failure of solid rocket motors. This probabilistic methodology employs best available engineering models and available information in a stochastic framework. The framework accounts for incomplete knowledge of governing parameters, intrinsic variability, and failure model specification error. Earlier case studies have been conducted on several failure modes of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. Work in progress on application of this probabilistic approach to large solid rocket boosters such as the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor for the Space Shuttle is described. Failure due to debonding has been selected as the first case study for large solid rocket motors (SRMs) since it accounts for a significant number of historical SRM failures. Impact of incomplete knowledge of governing parameters and failure model specification errors is expected to be important.

Jan, Darrell L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Shielded-Twisted-Pair Cable Model for Chafe Fault Detection via Time-Domain Reflectometry

This report details the development, verification, and validation of an innovative physics-based model of electrical signal propagation through shielded-twisted-pair cable, which is commonly found on aircraft and offers an ideal proving ground for detection of small holes in a shield well before catastrophic damage occurs. The accuracy of this model is verified through numerical electromagnetic simulations using a commercially available software tool. The model is shown to be representative of more realistic (analytically intractable) cable configurations as well. A probabilistic framework is developed for validating the model accuracy with reflectometry data obtained from real aircraft-grade cables chafed in the laboratory.

Schuet, Stefan R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Integrated analysis and applications

An overview is presented of current research activities which, in a broad context, are focused on the development and verification of integrated structural analysis and optimal design capabilities for advanced aerospace propulsion and power systems. The overview encompasses a variety of subject areas including: (1) composite materials; (2) advanced structural analysis; (3) constitutive modeling; (4) computational simulation; (5) probabilistic analysis; and (6) multidisciplinary optimization. Typical results are presented which illustrate the benefit and utility of the emerging technologies as applied to propulsion and power system structures.

Hopkins, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Microstructure Modeling of 3rd Generation Disk Alloy

The objective of this initiative, funded by NASA's Aviation Safety Program, is to model, validate, and predict, with high fidelity, the microstructural evolution of third-generation high-refractory Ni-based disc superalloys during heat treating and service conditions. This initiative is a natural extension of the DARPA-AIM (Accelerated Insertion of Materials) initiative with GE/Pratt-Whitney and with other process simulation tools. Strong collaboration with the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is a key component of this initiative and the focus of this program is on industrially relevant disk alloys and heat treatment processes identified by GRC. Employing QuesTek s Computational Materials Dynamics technology and PrecipiCalc precipitation simulator, physics-based models are being used to achieve high predictive accuracy and precision. Combining these models with experimental data and probabilistic analysis, "virtual alloy design" can be performed. The predicted microstructures can be optimized to promote desirable features and concurrently eliminate nondesirable phases that can limit the reliability and durability of the alloys. The well-calibrated and well-integrated software tools that are being applied under the proposed program will help gas turbine disk alloy manufacturers, processing facilities, and NASA, to efficiently and effectively improve the performance of current and future disk materials.

Jou, Herng-Jeng↗
NASA NTRS2010

NASA Tech Briefs, March 2010

Topics covered include: Software Tool Integrating Data Flow Diagrams and Petri Nets; Adaptive Nulling for Interferometric Detection of Planets; Reducing the Volume of NASA Earth-Science Data; Reception of Multiple Telemetry Signals via One Dish Antenna; Space-Qualified Traveling-Wave Tube; Smart Power Supply for Battery-Powered Systems; Parallel Processing of Broad-Band PPM Signals; Inexpensive Implementation of Many Strain Gauges; Constant-Differential-Pressure Two-Fluid Accumulator; Inflatable Tubular Structures Rigidized with Foams; Power Generator with Thermo-Differential Modules; Mechanical Extraction of Power From Ocean Currents and Tides; Nitrous Oxide/Paraffin Hybrid Rocket Engines; Optimized Li-Ion Electrolytes Containing Fluorinated Ester Co-Solvents; Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior; Foldable Instrumented Bits for Ultrasonic/Sonic Penetrators; Compact Rare Earth Emitter Hollow Cathode; High-Precision Shape Control of In-Space Deployable Large Membrane/Thin-Shell Reflectors; Rapid Active Sampling Package; Miniature Lightweight Ion Pump; Cryogenic Transport of High-Pressure-System Recharge Gas; Water-Vapor Raman Lidar System Reaches Higher Altitude; Compact Ku-Band T/R Module for High-Resolution Radar Imaging of Cold Land Processes; Wide-Field-of-View, High-Resolution, Stereoscopic Imager; Electrical Capacitance Volume Tomography with High-Contrast Dielectrics; Wavefront Control and Image Restoration with Less Computing; Polarization Imaging Apparatus; Stereoscopic Machine-Vision System Using Projected Circles; Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool; Performance Bounds on Two Concatenated, Interleaved Codes; Parameterizing Coefficients of a POD-Based Dynamical System; Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition; Algorithm for Lossless Compression of Calibrated Hyperspectral Imagery; Universal Decoder for PPM of any Order; Algorithm for Stabilizing a POD-Based Dynamical System; Mission Reliability Estimation for Repairable Robot Teams; Processing AIRS Scientific Data Through Level 3; Web-Based Requesting and Scheduling Use of Facilities; AutoGen Version 5.0; Time-Tag Generation Script; PPM Receiver Implemented in Software; Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer Product File Readers; Reporting Differences Between Spacecraft Sequence Files; Coordinating "Execute" Data for ISS and Space Shuttle; Database for Safety-Oriented Tracking of Chemicals; Apparatus for Cold, Pressurized Biogeochemical Experiments; Growing B Lymphocytes in a Three-Dimensional Culture System; Tissue-like 3D Assemblies of Human Broncho-Epithelial Cells; Isolation of Resistance-Bearing Microorganisms; Oscillating Cell Culture Bioreactor; and Liquid Cooling/Warming Garment.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2010

Structural Health Monitoring Analysis for the Orbiter Wing Leading Edge

This viewgraph presentation reviews Structural Health Monitoring Analysis for the Orbiter Wing Leading Edge. The Wing Leading Edge Impact Detection System (WLE IDS) and the Impact Analysis Process are also described to monitor WLE debris threats. The contents include: 1) Risk Management via SHM; 2) Hardware Overview; 3) Instrumentation; 4) Sensor Configuration; 5) Debris Hazard Monitoring; 6) Ascent Response Summary; 7) Response Signal; 8) Distribution of Flight Indications; 9) Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA); 10) Model Correlation; 11) Impact Tests; 12) Wing Leading Edge Modeling; 13) Ascent Debris PRA Results; and 14) MM/OD PRA Results.

Yap, Keng C.↗