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At least 397 records · Page 22

Maximum predictive power and the superposition principle

In quantum physics the direct observables are probabilities of events. We ask how observed probabilities must be combined to achieve what we call maximum predictive power. According to this concept the accuracy of a prediction must only depend on the number of runs whose data serve as input for the prediction. We transform each probability to an associated variable whose uncertainty interval depends only on the amount of data and strictly decreases with it. We find that for a probability which is a function of two other probabilities maximum predictive power is achieved when linearly summing their associated variables and transforming back to a probability. This recovers the quantum mechanical superposition principle.

Summhammer, Johann↗

Modular Engine Noise Component Prediction System (MCP) Technical Description and Assessment Document

This report describes an empirical prediction procedure for turbofan engine noise. The procedure generates predicted noise levels for several noise components, including inlet- and aft-radiated fan noise, and jet-mixing noise. This report discusses the noise source mechanisms, the development of the prediction procedures, and the assessment of the accuracy of these predictions. Finally, some recommendations for future work are presented.

Herkes, William H.↗

Assessment of Near-Field Sonic Boom Simulation Tools

A recent study for the Supersonics Project, within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, has been conducted to assess current in-house capabilities for the prediction of near-field sonic boom. Such capabilities are required to simulate the highly nonlinear flow near an aircraft, wherein a sonic-boom signature is generated. There are many available computational fluid dynamics codes that could be used to provide the near-field flow for a sonic boom calculation. However, such codes have typically been developed for applications involving aerodynamic configuration, for which an efficiently generated computational mesh is usually not optimum for a sonic boom prediction. Preliminary guidelines are suggested to characterize a state-of-the-art sonic boom prediction methodology. The available simulation tools that are best suited to incorporate into that methodology are identified; preliminary test cases are presented in support of the selection. During this phase of process definition and tool selection, parallel research was conducted in an attempt to establish criteria that link the properties of a computational mesh to the accuracy of a sonic boom prediction. Such properties include sufficient grid density near shocks and within the zone of influence, which are achieved by adaptation and mesh refinement strategies. Prediction accuracy is validated by comparison with wind tunnel data.

Casper, J. H.↗

Verification of a Remaining Flying Time Prediction System for Small Electric Aircraft

This paper addresses the problem of building trust in online predictions of a battery powered aircraft's remaining available flying time. A set of ground tests is described that make use of a small unmanned aerial vehicle to verify the performance of remaining flying time predictions. The algorithm verification procedure described here uses a fully functional vehicle that is restrained to a platform for repeated run-to-functional-failure experiments. The vehicle under test is commanded to follow a predefined propeller RPM profile in order to create battery demand profiles similar to those expected in flight. The fully integrated aircraft is repeatedly operated until the charge stored in powertrain batteries falls below a specified lower-limit. The time at which the lower-limit on battery charge is crossed is then used to measure the accuracy of remaining flying time predictions. Accuracy requirements are considered in this paper for an alarm that warns operators when remaining flying time is estimated to fall below a specified threshold.

Hogge, Edward F.↗

Comparing Simulation Results from CHARM and RotCFD to the Multirotor Test Bed Experimental Data

Advanced multirotor vertical flight aircraft concepts are emerging faster than rigorous individualized tests can investigate their utility and performance. There are several analysis tools that predict multirotor performance and flow characteristics, but the accuracy of these predictions is still being debated due to lack of experimental data from multirotor tests that are needed to validate the analyses. The objective of this paper is to simulate multirotor configurations using two different mid-fidelity rotorcraft analysis tools, Comprehensive Hierarchical Aeromechanics Rotorcraft Model (CHARM) and Rotorcraft Computational Fluid Dynamics (RotCFD), and compare the simulation results to experimental data from a wind tunnel test of the Multirotor Test Bed (MTB). The MTB, developed by NASA Ames Research Center, is a new capability for testing a wide array of advanced vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) rotor configurations, with a primary focus on testing in the U.S. Army 7-by 10-Foot Wind Tunnel at NASA Ames Research Center. The MTB was designed to allow adjustment of the vertical, lateral, and longitudinal placement of up to six rotors, as well as allow tilt adjustment of each rotor and pitch adjustment of the whole assembly. The six-axis load cells under each rotor give the MTB the capability of measuring the rotor performance in a wide array of configurations. The overall goal of the MTB project is to help gain a better understanding of the performance, control, interactional aerodynamics, and acoustics of multirotor and tilting-rotor systems. For the work presented here, the MTB data were used to validate RotCFD and CHARM results for several multirotor test configurations. With confidence in both analyses established by the validation exercise, additional simulations were performed to explore quadrotor configurations that will be tested during the MTB’s second wind tunnel entry planned for 2022. This second tunnel entry will examine quadrotor configurations that represent published NASA reference designs for urban air mobility concept vehicles. Results from this paper confirm the ability of RotCFD and CHARM to simulate multirotor aerodynamic interactions on individual rotor performance under edgewise forward-flight conditions.

CHARM↗

Prediction of nacelle aerodynamic interference effects at low supersonic Mach numbers

The accuracy of analytical predictions of nacelle aerodynamic interference effects at low supersonic speeds are studied by means of test versus theory comparisons. Comparisons shown include: (1) isolated wing body lift, drag, and pitching moments; (2) isolated nacelle drag and pressure distributions; (3) nacelle interference shock wave patterns and pressure distributions on the wing lower surface; (4) nacelle interference effects on wing body lift, drag, and pitching moments; and (5) total installed nacelle interference effects on lift, drag, and pitching moment. The comparisons also illustrate effects of nacelle location, nacelle spillage, angle of attack, and Mach numbers on the aerodynamic interference. The initial results seem to indicate that the methods can satisfactorily predict lift, drag, pitching moment, and pressure distributions of installed engine nacelles at low supersonic Mach numbers with mass flow ratios from 0.7 to 1.0 for configurations typical of efficient supersonic cruise airplanes.

Kulfan, R. M.↗

The Evaluation of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System in the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) evaluated the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) contained within the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System (ERDAS). ERDAS provides emergency response guidance for Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center operations in the event of an accidental hazardous material release or aborted vehicle launch. The RAMS prognostic data are available to ERDAS for display and are used to initialize the 45th Space Wing/Range Safety dispersion model. Thus, the accuracy of the dispersion predictions is dependent upon the accuracy of RAMS forecasts. The RAMS evaluation consisted of an objective and subjective component for the 1999 and 2000 Florida warm seasons, and the 1999-2000 cool season. In the objective evaluation, the AMU generated model error statistics at surface and upper-level observational sites, compared RAMS errors to a coarser RAMS grid configuration, and benchmarked RAMS against the nationally-used Eta model. In the subjective evaluation, the AMU compared forecast cold fronts, low-level temperature inversions, and precipitation to observations during the 1999-2000 cool season, verified the development of the RAMS forecast east coast sea breeze during both warm seasons, and examined the RAMS daily thunderstorm initiation and precipitation patterns during the 2000 warm season. This report summarizes the objective and subjective verification for all three seasons.

Case, Jonathan↗

On the Accuracy of CFD-Based Pressure Drop Predictions for Right-Angle Ducts

The predictive capability of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes for turbulent flow through curved ducts is of significant importance to the design and performance analysis of modern rocket engine flowpaths. Code calibration and validation studies for this class of flow are desireable to estimate the performance margin and operating range of components designed using Navier-Stokes methods. Parametric experimental studies such as that of Weske (NACA ARR W-39) provided a wealth of performance data for the design of single- and compound elbow configurations with various cross-sections, curvature and aspect ratios at varying Reynolds numbers. In that work, the majority of data is presented in the form of loss coefficients, characterizing pressure losses due to duct curvature, and including losses due to wall friction. Using measured friction coefficients, losses of equivalent straight lengths of duct are subtracted, resulting in performance curves useful for design computations. These data are currently used in a CFD-based parametric study covering a broad range of operating conditions. Of particular interest for the accuracy of CFD predictions are the effects on pressure loss due to inlet boundary layer thickness (dependent on upstream development length), and the wall treatment for the turbulence equations (conventional wall functions vs. wall integration using a two-layer model). The experimental data are reassessed in the form of an error analysis, and are compared with CFD predictions for 18 computational cases. Grid-independence, grid spacing, and convergence requirements of the cases are discussed. Conclusions regarding the relative importance of the parametric variables will be presented.

Brankovic, Andreja↗

Evaluation of insulation materials and composites for use in a nuclear radiation environment, phase 2

The nuclear heating of the propellant in all of the four baseline RNS configurations studied was much lower than that of the nuclear flight module configuration with the 5000-MW NERVA analyzed previously. Although the nuclear heating has been reduced, the effect of nuclear heating on the propellant as well as the effect of nuclear heating on internal structures such as antivortex baffles, screens, and sump components cannot be neglected. In addition, it was found that the present analytical precedures were not able to predict boundary layer initiation and breakoff points with the accuracy necessary to predict propellant thermodynamic nonequilibrium (stratification) and/or mixing.

Westerheide, D. E.↗

Methods for in-flight robustness evaluation

The goal of this program was to combine modern control concepts with new identification techniques to develop a comprehensive package for estimation of 'robust flutter boundaries' based on experimental data. The goal was to use flight data, combined with a fundamental physical understanding of flutter dynamics, to generate a prediction of flutter speed and an estimate of the accuracy of the prediction. This report is organized as follows: the specific contributions of this project will be listed first. Then, the problem under study will be stated and the general approach will be outlined. Third, the specific system under study (F- 18 SRA) will be described and a preliminary data analysis will be performed. Then, the various steps of the flutter boundary determination will be outlined and applied to tile F-18 SRA data and others.

Brenner, Marty↗

Integrating the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) in CTAS Trajectory Synthesizer

The Center-Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) Automation System (CTAS), developed at NASA Ames Research Center for assisting controllers in the management and control of air traffic in the extended terminal area, supports the modeling of more than four hundred aircraft types. However, 90% of them are supported indirectly by mapping them to one of a relatively few aircraft types for which CTAS has detailed drag and engine thrust models. On the other hand, the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA), developed and maintained by Eurocontrol, supports more than 300 aircraft types, about one third of which are directly supported, i.e. they have validated performance data. All these data were made available for CTAS by integrating BADA version 3.8 into CTAS Trajectory Synthesizer (TS). Several validation tools were developed and used to validate the integrated code and to evaluate the accuracy of trajectory predictions generated using CTAS "native" and BADA Aircraft Performance Models (APM) comparing them with radar track data. Results of these comparisons indicate that the two models have different strengths and weaknesses. The BADA APM can improve the accuracy of CTAS predictions at least for some aircraft types, especially small aircraft, and for some flight phases, especially climb.

Abramson, Michael↗

Flight Tests of a Remaining Flying Time Prediction System for Small Electric Aircraft in the Presence of Faults

This paper addresses the problem of building trust in the online prediction of a battery powered aircraft's remaining flying time. A series of flight tests is described that make use of a small electric powered unmanned aerial vehicle (eUAV) to verify the performance of the remaining flying time prediction algorithm. The estimate of remaining flying time is used to activate an alarm when the predicted remaining time is two minutes. This notifies the pilot to transition to the landing phase of the flight. A second alarm is activated when the battery charge falls below a specified limit threshold. This threshold is the point at which the battery energy reserve would no longer safely support two repeated aborted landing attempts. During the test series, the motor system is operated with the same predefined timed airspeed profile for each test. To test the robustness of the prediction, half of the tests were performed with, and half were performed without, a simulated powertrain fault. The pilot remotely engages a resistor bank at a specified time during the test flight to simulate a partial powertrain fault. The flying time prediction system is agnostic of the pilot's activation of the fault and must adapt to the vehicle's state. The time at which the limit threshold on battery charge is reached is then used to measure the accuracy of the remaining flying time predictions. Accuracy requirements for the alarms are considered and the results discussed.

Hogge, Edward F.↗

A signal detection model predicts the effects of set size on visual search accuracy for feature, conjunction, triple conjunction, and disjunction displays

Recently, quantitative models based on signal detection theory have been successfully applied to the prediction of human accuracy in visual search for a target that differs from distractors along a single attribute (feature search). The present paper extends these models for visual search accuracy to multidimensional search displays in which the target differs from the distractors along more than one feature dimension (conjunction, disjunction, and triple conjunction displays). The model assumes that each element in the display elicits a noisy representation for each of the relevant feature dimensions. The observer combines the representations across feature dimensions to obtain a single decision variable, and the stimulus with the maximum value determines the response. The model accurately predicts human experimental data on visual search accuracy in conjunctions and disjunctions of contrast and orientation. The model accounts for performance degradation without resorting to a limited-capacity spatially localized and temporally serial mechanism by which to bind information across feature dimensions.

Non-NASA Center↗

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

In engineering and aerospace applications, it is vital to operational success to have insight into the expected performance and health of physical systems. The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring, predicting, and managing system health. Prognostics algorithms can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. While they can provide accurate prediction results, effective prognostics algorithms can be challenging to use in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for future remaining useful life predictions. In this work, we implement new algorithmic approaches for prediction, quantitatively compare them via a battery degradation use-case, and provide recommendations of potential improvements to a prognostics framework. One approach to prediction is through sampling, whereby the current state of a physical system is sampled many times and each sample is propagated forward until failure is reached, resulting in a distribution of failure values. To improve the efficiency of this process, we implemented five new algorithmic approaches to prediction, including three distinct sampling methods (standard Monte Carlo, Quasi-Monte Carlo, and Latin Hypercube Sampling), a variable time step algorithm, and a variable sample size algorithm. To compare the algorithms, we employ a variety of metrics designed specifically to analyze both computational efficiency and model accuracy. Our metrics include accuracy to compare the average predicted value to ground truth, mean absolute deviation to illustrate dispersion, specific percentile error to describe accuracy within a user-defined risk tolerance, and code run-time. To quantitatively analyze our results, we employ a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. We use an electrochemistry-based model to describe the current health state of the battery, and implement our prediction algorithms to propagate forward in time until end-of-discharge (EOD) is reached. Notably, through this work it was found that none of our sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. We find that while the sampling methods are unique, the distributions they generate are similar, ultimately producing final predictions that are nearly identical. In exploring the effect of the time step within the prediction algorithm, we found that prediction accuracy was highly dependent on the time step used, and that implementing a variable time step within a particular prediction may provide an increase in computational efficiency while also maintaining prediction accuracy. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment can result in improved computation speed and maintained prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency.

prognostics↗

Recent developments in the micromechanics of advanced composites

A summary of recent developments and results in the area of inelastic response of advanced composites obtained with the micromechanics model proposed by Aboudi is presented. The recent developments include investigation of linear viscoelastic response of polymer matrix composites and yielding and elastoplastic response of metal matrix composites. The predictive capability and accuracy of the model is demonstrated through comparison of the predicted results with experimental data and results of finite-element analyses.

Pindera, M.-J.↗

The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM): Community-Focused Collaborative Model Development Accelerating Research to Operations

The Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is a fast, 1-D radiative transfer model used in numerical weather prediction, calibration/validation, etc. across multiple federal agencies and universities. The key benefit of the CRTM is that it is a satellite simulator. It provides a highly accurate representation of satellite radiances by using the specific sensor response functions convolved with a line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM). CRTM covers the spectral ranges consistent with all present operational and most research satellites, from visible to microwave. The capability to simulate ultraviolet radiances and support space-based radar sensors is being added over the next two years in CRTM Version 3.0. In addition to simulated radiances, the CRTM also provides Jacobian outputs needed to interpret satellite observations for numerical weather prediction. The Jacobian estimates how changes in geophysical parameters affect simulated measurements from satellite sensors. Using the Jacobian in modeling and weather prediction improves the accuracy and efficiency of data analysis, leading to better weather predictions. The CRTM model's success and growth depend on community contributions and evaluation. To facilitate this, we have made the CRTM highly accessible through modular programming, clear documentation and tutorials, public domain licensing, unfettered public access via Github, and a clear path to operational implementation for innovative research. We encourage and welcome contributions from the community to help us continue to improve the CRTM.

Benjamin T Johnson↗

Verification of Prognostic Algorithms to Predict Remaining Flying Time for Electric Unmanned Vehicles

This paper addresses the problem of building trust in the online prediction of a eUAV’s remaining available flying time powered by lithium-ion polymer batteries. A series of ground tests are described that make use of an electric unmanned aerial vehicle (eUAV) to verify the performance of remaining flying time predictions. The algorithm verification procedure described is implemented on a fully functional vehicle that is restrained to a platform for repeated run-to-functional-failure (charge depletion) experiments. The vehicle under test is commanded to follow a predefined propeller RPM profile in order to create battery demand profiles similar to those expected during flight. The eUAV is repeatedly operated until the charge stored in powertrain batteries falls below a specified limit threshold. The time at which the limit threshold on battery charge is crossed is then used to measure the accuracy of the remaining flying time prediction. In our earlier work battery aging was not included. In this work we take into account aging of the batteries where the parameters were updated to make predictions. Accuracy requirements are considered for an alarm that warns operators when remaining flying time is estimated to fall below the specified limit threshold.

Edward F. Hogge↗

Fabrication of Thermoplastic Composite Laminates Having Film Interleaves By Automated Fiber Placement

Experiments were carried out at the NASA Langley Research Center automated Fiber placement facility to determine an optimal process for the fabrication of composite materials having polymer film interleaves. A series of experiments was conducted to determine an optimal process for the composite prior to investigation of a process to fabricate laminates with polymer films. The results of the composite tests indicated that a well-consolidated, void-free laminate could be attained. Preliminary interleaf processing trials were then conducted to establish some broad guidelines for film processing. The primary finding of these initial studies was that a two-stage process was necessary in order to process these materials adequately. A screening experiment was then performed to determine the relative influence of the process variables on the quality of the film interface as determined by the wedge peel test method. Parameters that were found to be of minor influence on specimen quality were subsequently held at fixed values enabling a more rapid determination of an optimal process. Optimization studies were then performed by varying the remaining parameters at three film melt processing rates. The resulting peel data were fitted with quadratic response surfaces. Additional specimens were fabricated at levels of high peel strength as predicted by the regression models in an attempt to gage the accuracy of the predicted response and to assess the repeatability of the process. The overall results indicate that quality laminates having film interleaves can be successfully and repeatably fabricated by automated fiber placement.

Hulcher, A. B.↗