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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth's carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth s carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth s carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O'Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Differential contagiousness of respiratory disease across the United States

The initial contagiousness of a communicable disease within a given population is quantified by the basic reproduction number, $R_0$. This number depends on both pathogen and population properties. On the basis of compartmental models that reproduce Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance data, we used Bayesian inference and the next-generation matrix approach to estimate region-specific $R_0$ values for 280 of 384 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States (US), which account for 95% of the US population living in urban areas and 82% of the total population. We focused on MSA populations after finding that these populations were more uniformly impacted by COVID-19 than state populations. Our maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates for $R_0$ range from 1.9 to 7.7 and quantify the relative susceptibilities of regional populations to spread of respiratory diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Statistical estimates of the binary properties of rotational variables

ABSTRACT We present a model to estimate the average primary masses, companion mass ranges, the inclination limit for recognizing a rotational variable, and the primary mass spreads for populations of binary stars. The model fits a population’s binary mass function distribution and allows for a probability that some mass functions are incorrectly estimated. Using tests with synthetic data, we assess the model’s sensitivity to each parameter, finding that we are most sensitive to the average primary mass and the minimum companion mass, with less sensitivity to the inclination limit and little to no sensitivity to the primary mass spread. We apply the model to five populations of binary spotted rotational variables identified in ASAS-SN, computing their binary mass functions using RV data from APOGEE. Their average primary mass estimates are consistent with our expectations based on their CMD locations ($\sim 0.75 \, {\rm M}_{\odot }$ for lower main sequence primaries and $\sim 0.9$–$1.2 \, {\rm M}_{\odot }$ for RS CVn and sub-subgiants). Their companion mass range estimates allow companion masses down to $M_2/M_1\simeq 0.1$, although the main sequence population may have a higher minimum mass fraction ($\sim 0.4$). We see weak evidence of an inclination limit $\gtrsim 50^{\circ }$ for the main sequence and sub-subgiant groups and no evidence of an inclination limit in the other groups. No groups show strong evidence for a preferred primary mass spread. We conclude by demonstrating that the approach will provide significantly better estimates of the primary mass and the minimum mass ratio and reasonable sensitivity to the inclination limit with 10 times as many systems.

Phillips, Anya (ORCID:000900051914974X)↗
NASA NTRS2021

Semi-Analytic Forecasts for JWST– V. AGN Luminosity Functions and Helium Reionization at z= 2–7

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) forming in the early universe are thought to be the pri-mary source of hard ionizing photons contributing to the reionization of intergalactic helium. However, the number density and spectral properties of high-redshift AGN remain largely unconstrained. In this work, we make use of physically-informed mod-els calibrated with a wide variety of available observations to provide estimates for the role of AGN throughout the Epoch of Reionization. We present AGN luminosity functions in various bands between z= 2 to 7 predicted by the well-established Santa Cruz semi-analytic model, which includes modelling of black hole accretion and AGN feedback. We then combine the predicted AGN populations with a physical spectral model for self-consistent estimates of ionizing photon production rates, which depend on the mass and accretion rate of the accreting supermassive black hole. We then couple the predicted comoving ionizing emissivity with an analytic model to compute the subsequent reionization history of intergalactic helium and hydrogen. This work demonstrates the potential of coupling physically motivated analytic or semi-analytic techniques to capture multi-scale physical processes across a vast range of scales (here, from AGN accretion disks to cosmological scales). Our physical model predicts an in-trinsic ionizing photon budget well above many of the estimates in the literature, meaning that helium reionization can comfortably be accomplished even with a rel-atively low escape fraction. We also make predictions for the AGN populations that are expected to be detected in future James Webb Space Telescope surveys

L Y Aaron Yung↗
NASA NTRS1995

Gamma-ray burst constraints on the galactic frequency of extrasolar Oort Clouds

With the strong Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory/Burst and Transient Source Experiment (CGRO/BATSE) evidence that most gamma-ray bursts do not come from galactic neutron stars, models involving the accretion of a comet onto a neutron star (NS) no longer appear to be strong contenders for explaining the majority of bursts. If this is the case, then it is worth asking whether the lack of an observed galactic gamma-ray burst population provides a useful constraint on the number of comets and comet clouds in the galaxy. Owing to the previously unrecognized structural weakness of cometary nuclei, we find the capture cross sections for comet-NS events to be much higher than previously published estimates, with tidal breakup at distances R(sub b) approx. equals 4 x 10(exp 10) cm from the NS. As a result, impacts of comets onto field NSs penetrating the Oort Clouds of other stars are found to dominate all other galactic NS-comet capture rates by a factor of 100. This in turn predicts that if comet clouds are common, there should be a significant population of repeater sources with (1) a galactic distribution, (2) space-correlated repetition, and (3) a wide range of peak luminosities and luminosity time histories. If all main sequence stars have Oort Clouds like our own, we predict approximately 4000 such repeater sources in the Milky Way at any time, each repeating on time scales of months to years. Based on estimates of the sensitivity of the CGRO/BATSE instrument and assuming isotropic gamma-ray beaming from such events, we estimate that a population of approximately 20-200 of these galactic NS-Oort Cloud gamma-ray repeater sources should be detectable by CGRO. In addition, if giant planet formation is common in the galaxy, we estimate that the accretion of isolated comets injected to the interstellar medium by giant planet formation should produce an additional source of galactic, nonrepeating, events. Comparing these estimates to the 3-4 soft gamma-ray repeater sources detected by BATSE, one is forced to conclude that (1) comet impacts on NSs are inefficient at producing gamma rays; or (2) the gamma rays from such events are highly beamed; or (3) the fraction of stars in the galaxy with Oort Clouds like our own is not higher than a few percent.

Shull, J. Michael↗
NASA NTRS1994

Gamma-ray burst constraints on the galactic frequency of extra-solar Oort clouds

With the strong CGRO/BATSE evidence that most gamma-ray bursts do not come from galactic neutron stars, models involving the accretion of a comet onto a neutron star (NS) no longer appear to be strong contenders for explaining the majority of bursts. If this is the case, then it is worth asking whether the lack of an observed galactic gamma-ray burst population provides a useful constraint on the number of comets and comet clouds in the galaxy. Owing to the previously unrecognized structural weakness of cometary nuclei, we find the capture cross sections for comet-NS events to be much higher than previously published estimates, with tidal breakup at distances R(sub b) approximately equals to 4 x 10(exp 10) cm from the NS. As a result, impacts of comets onto field NS's penetrating the Oort Clouds of other stars are found to dominate all other galactic NS-comet capture rates by a factor of 100. This in turn predicts that if comet clouds are common, there should be a significant population of repeater sources with (1) a galactic distribution, (2) space-correlated repetition, and (3) a wide range of peak luminosities and luminosity time histories. If all main sequences stars have Oort Clouds like our own, we predict approximately 4000 such repeater sources in the Milky Way at any time, each repeating on timescales of months to years. Based on estimates of the sensitivity of the CGRO/BATSE instrument and assuming isotropic gamma-ray beaming from such events, we estimate that a population of approximately 20-200 of these galactic NS-Oort Cloud gamma-ray repeater sources should be detectable by CGRO. In addition, if giant planet formation is common in the galaxy, we estimate that the accretion of isolated comets injected to the interstellar medium by giant planet formation should produce an additional source of galactic, nonrepeating events. Comparing these estimates to the three to four soft gamma-ray repeater sources detected by BATSE, one is forced to conclude that (1) comet impacts on NS's are inefficient at producing gamma-rays; or (2) the gamma-rays from such events are highly beamed; or (3) the fraction of stars in the galaxy with Oort Cloud like our own is not higher than a few percent.

Shull, J. Michael↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fate of Listeria monocytogenes Serotypes on Frozen Mixed Vegetables During Consumer‐Simulated Thawing and Storage

ABSTRACT Recent outbreaks and recalls associated with frozen vegetables in the United States and Europe have been linked to Listeria monocytogenes . This study aims to understand the extent to which frozen vegetables support the growth of L. monocytogenes once thawed and held at different temperatures. Six L. monocytogenes strains, two of each from serotypes 1/2a, 1/2b, and 4b, were individually inoculated onto frozen vegetables and stored at −18°C for 7 days. After 7 days, the vegetables were thawed and stored at 5°C or 10°C for up to 14 days or at 25°C for up to 7 days. L. monocytogenes was enumerated from the thawed vegetables throughout the storage period. Population data were fitted to the primary Baranyi model to estimate growth rates and lag phase durations; the secondary Ratkowsky square root model was used to model the relationship of the growth rates with storage temperature. Five of the L. monocytogenes strains survived and grew on the thawed vegetables (population increases of > 1 log CFU/g) stored at 5°C, and all six of the strains proliferated at 10°C and 25°C (population increases of > 3 log CFU/g after 14 days and > 4 log CFU/g after 7 days, respectively). A secondary model was successfully generated based on the growth rates of the six L. monocytogenes strains on the thawed vegetables ( r 2 = 0.8888, RMSE = 0.2057). Results from this study fill a data gap associated with L. monocytogenes survival on thawed vegetables and can be used to determine safe handling and storage practices for these products to protect public health.

Salazar, Joelle K. [Division of Food Processing Sc↗
NASA NTRS1997

Inference of a 7.75 eV lower limit in the ultraviolet pumping of interstellar polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon cations with resulting unidentified infrared emissions

The discrete infrared features known as the unidentified infrared (UIR) bands originating in starburst regions of other galaxies, and in H II regions and planetary nebulae within the Milky Way, are widely thought to be the result of ultraviolet pumped infrared fluorescence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) molecules and ions. These UIR emissions are estimated to account for 10%-30% of the total energy emitted by galaxies. Laboratory absorption spectra including the vacuum ultraviolet region, as described in this paper, show a weakening of the intensity of absorption features as the population of cations increases, suggesting that strong pi* <-- pi transitions are absent in the spectra of PAH cations. This implies a lower energy bound for ultraviolet photons that pump infrared emissions from such ions at 7.75 eV, an amount greater than previously thought. The implications include size and structure limitations on the PAH molecules and ions which are apparent constituents of the interstellar medium. Also, this might affect estimations of the population of early-type stars in regions of rapid star formation.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cross-national analysis of food security drivers: comparing results based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale and Global Food Security Index

Abstract The second UN Sustainable Development Goal establishes food security as a priority for governments, multilateral organizations, and NGOs. These institutions track national-level food security performance with an array of metrics and weigh intervention options considering the leverage of many possible drivers. We studied the relationships between several candidate drivers and two response variables based on prominent measures of national food security: the 2019 Global Food Security Index (GFSI) and the Food Insecurity Experience Scale’s (FIES) estimate of the percentage of a nation’s population experiencing food security or mild food insecurity (FI ). We compared the contributions of explanatory variables in regressions predicting both response variables, and we further tested the stability of our results to changes in explanatory variable selection and in the countries included in regression model training and testing. At the cross-national level, the quantity and quality of a nation’s agricultural land were not predictive of either food security metric. We found mixed evidence that per-capita cereal production, per-hectare cereal yield, an aggregate governance metric, logistics performance, and extent of paid employment work were predictive of national food security. Household spending as measured by per-capita final consumption expenditure (HFCE) was consistently the strongest driver among those studied, alone explaining a median of 92% and 70% of variation (based on out-of-sample R 2 ) in GFSI and FI , respectively. The relative strength of HFCE as a predictor was observed for both response variables and was independent of the countries used for model training, the transformations applied to the explanatory variables prior to model training, and the variable selection technique used to specify multivariate regressions. The results of this cross-national analysis reinforce previous research supportive of a causal mechanism where, in the absence of exceptional local factors, an increase in income drives increase in food security. However, the strength of this effect varies depending on the countries included in regression model fitting. We demonstrate that using multiple response metrics, repeated random sampling of input data, and iterative variable selection facilitates a convergence of evidence approach to analyzing food security drivers.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identification of hot water end-use process of electric water heaters from energy measurements

This paper presents an algorithm for the identification of parameters for a stochastic hot water end-use process that drives a homogeneous population of thermostatically controlled electric water heaters (EWH). Usually, only metered interval consumption data (kWh) is collected and the hot water end-use process is unobservable to utility and aggregators. However, the availability of EWHs for demand response (DR) is closely coupled with the hot water end-use process. In this context, the hot water end-use process is modeled as a two-state Markov chain (Use / No use), which causes the thermostatic ON-OFF switching process to behave as a Markov renewal process (MRP). A set of first passage-time problems is developed to obtain the moments of the transition probability densities of the MRP. These problems are addressed by establishing a system of coupled partial differential equations characterizing the temperature evolution of the EWH population. A key quantity in the methodology for estimating the parameters is the total time an EWH is ON within a period of interest. It is referred to as the total busy time. Total busy time in this approach is a random variable for which analytical expressions of the moments are developed as a function of the metered window length. The latter expressions become the basis of a hot water demand model identification algorithm which is validated using agent-based simulations of EWHs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Modernization of Radiation Therapy Services in Cambodia: A Model of International Collaboration

Cambodia is a Southeast Asian low-middle-income country with a population of >15 million. In 2020, Cambodia was estimated to have 18,375 new diagnoses of cancer and 12,638 deaths attributable to cancer. Cambodia was estimated to have a deficit of 16 megavoltage machines in 2012. Cambodia's radiation therapy services have suffered through the tumultuous events of the country's history, with intermittent services until the last decade. In recent years, Cambodia has undergone rapid economic growth and, with this, the development of its first comprehensive cancer center, the National Cancer Centre (NCC).

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ultrafast Relaxations in Ruthenium Polypyridyl Chromophores Determined by Stochastic Kinetics Simulations

Maximizing the efficiency of solar energy conversion using dye assemblies rests on understanding where the energy goes following absorption. Transient spectroscopies in solution are useful for this purpose, and the time-resolved data are usually analyzed with a sum of exponentials. This treatment assumes that dynamic events are well separated in time, and that the resulting exponential prefactors and phenomenological lifetimes are related directly to primary physical values. Such assumptions break down for coincident absorption, emission, and excited state relaxation that occur in transient absorption and photoluminescence of tris(2,2'-bipyridine)ruthenium(2+) derivatives, confounding the physical meaning of the reported lifetimes. Here, we use inductive modeling and stochastic chemical kinetics to develop a detailed description of the primary ultrafast photophysics in transient spectroscopies of a series of Ru dyes, as an alternative to sums of exponential analysis. Commonly invoked three-level schemes involving absorption, intersystem crossing (ISC), and slow nonradiative relaxation and incoherent emission to the ground state cannot reproduce the experimentally measured spectra. The kinetics simulations reveal that ultrafast decay from the singlet excited state manifold to the ground state competes with ISC to the triplet excited state, whose efficiency was determined to be less than unity. The populations predicted by the simulations are used to estimate the magnitudes of transition dipoles for excited state excitations and evaluate the influence of specific ligands. The mechanistic framework and methodology presented here are entirely general, applicable to other dye classes, and can be extended to include charge injection by molecules bound to semiconductor surfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Resilience Measurement Framework For Post-deployment Artificial Intelligence (ai) Integrated Systems

Resilience is largely defined as the ability to adapt or recover from adverse conditions, stresses, attacks, or compromises on systems that use or are enabled by digital resources. In Artificial Intelligence Management and Research for Advanced Networked Testbed Hub (AMARANTH), resilience is measured in the amount of time it took from the beginning of a testing period for the model to reach predictions outside of the original 95% confidence interval or using the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence theorem, the Population Stability Index (PSI), and traditional methods such as root mean squared error (RMSE) threshold. Artificial Intelligence (AI) model drift is of significant concern when deploying AI-integrated systems into critical and/or secure environments. Drift can impact resilience of the AI-integrated system post-deployment and requires consistent maintenance and upkeep to ensure the model is accurate and precise. To quantify model drift and predict the point when a model's drift becomes unacceptable, we describe using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, Population Stability Index (PSI) and/or confidence interval width estimations to determine the point of failure and time to failure of a model post-deployment. Through simple code functions, the KL-divergence, PSI, confidence interval, and root mean squared (RMSE) point of failures can be used to derive when a model needs to be maintained as well as the impact of adversarial action through statistical means.

Yockey, Patience [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗
DOE OSTI2022

Can we use antipredator behavior theory to predict wildlife responses to high-speed vehicles?

Animals seem to rely on antipredator behavior to avoid vehicle collisions. There is an extensive body of antipredator behavior theory that have been used to predict the distance/time animals should escape from predators. These models have also been used to guide empirical research on escape behavior from vehicles. However, little is known as to whether antipredator behavior models are appropriate to apply to an approaching high-speed vehicle scenario. We addressed this gap by (a) providing an overview of the main hypotheses and predictions of different antipredator behavior models via a literature review, (b) exploring whether these models can generate quantitative predictions on escape distance when parameterized with empirical data from the literature, and (c) evaluating their sensitivity to vehicle approach speed using a simulation approach wherein we assessed model performance based on changes in effect size with variations in the slope of the flight initiation distance (FID) vs. approach speed relationship. The slope of the FID vs. approach speed relationship was then related back to three different behavioral rules animals may rely on to avoid approaching threats: the spatial, temporal, or delayed margin of safety. We used literature on birds for goals (b) and (c). Our review considered the following eight models: the economic escape model, Blumstein’s economic escape model, the optimal escape model, the perceptual limit hypothesis, the visual cue model, the flush early and avoid the rush (FEAR) hypothesis, the looming stimulus hypothesis, and the Bayesian model of escape behavior. We were able to generate quantitative predictions about escape distance with the last five models. However, we were only able to assess sensitivity to vehicle approach speed for the last three models. The FEAR hypothesis is most sensitive to high-speed vehicles when the species follows the spatial (FID remains constant as speed increases) and the temporal margin of safety (FID increases with an increase in speed) rules of escape. The looming stimulus effect hypothesis reached small to intermediate levels of sensitivity to high-speed vehicles when a species follows the delayed margin of safety (FID decreases with an increase in speed). The Bayesian optimal escape model reached intermediate levels of sensitivity to approach speed across all escape rules (spatial, temporal, delayed margins of safety) but only for larger (> 1 kg) species, but was not sensitive to speed for smaller species. Overall, no single antipredator behavior model could characterize all different types of escape responses relative to vehicle approach speed but some models showed some levels of sensitivity for certain rules of escape behavior. We derive some applied applications of our findings by suggesting the estimation of critical vehicle approach speeds for managing populations that are especially susceptible to road mortality. Overall, we recommend that new escape behavior models specifically tailored to high-speeds vehicles should be developed to better predict quantitatively the responses of animals to an increase in the frequency of cars, airplanes, drones, etc. they will face in the next decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mechanisms for Microseismicity Occurrence Due to CO 2 Injection at Decatur, Illinois: A Coupled Multiphase Flow and Geomechanics Perspective

Here, we numerically investigate the mechanisms that resulted in induced seismicity occurrence associated with CO 2 injection at the Illinois Basin–Decatur Project (IBDP). We build a geologically consistent model that honors key stratigraphic horizons and 3D fault surfaces interpreted using surface seismic data and microseismicity locations. We populate our model with reservoir and geomechanical properties estimated using well-log and core data. We then performed coupled multiphase flow and geomechanics modeling to investigate the impact of CO 2 injection on fault stability using the Coulomb failure criteria. We calibrate our flow model using measured reservoir pressure during the CO 2 injection phase. Our model results show that pore-pressure diffusion along faults connecting the injection interval to the basement is essential to explain the destabilization of the regions where microseismicity occurred, and that poroelastic stresses alone would result in stabilization of those regions. Slip tendency analysis indicates that, due to their orientations with respect to the maximum horizontal stress direction, the faults where the microseismicity occurred were very close to failure prior to injection. These model results highlight the importance of accurate subsurface fault characterization for CO 2 sequestration operations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗