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At least 397 records · Page 22

Innovations in Building Energy Modeling: Research and Development Opportunities for Emerging Technologies

Building energy modeling (BEM) is a multipurpose tool for building energy efficiency (EE). The U.S. Department of Energy Building Technologies Office (BTO) seeks to expand the use and effectiveness of BEM in the design and operation of commercial and residential buildings with the goal of achieving lasting reductions in total and peak energy use. This report identifies gaps and outlines recommended initiatives to achieve this goal, based on a combination of technical analysis and stakeholder input. In addition to BTO, this report can benefit BEM professionals (architects, mechanical engineers, energy consultants, building auditors, equipment manufacturers, and BEM software vendors) and BEM clients (building owners and operators, EE program administrators, EE service providers, policymakers, and policy and code jurisdictions such as states and cities). This report was developed in two phases. In the first, BTO worked with a team from Navigant Consulting (now Guidehouse) to characterize objectives, opportunities, and current activities; identify gaps and barriers; and define initiatives. To collect input, Navigant conducted telephone interviews and workshops with industry experts. The initial phase produced a draft report, which was released for public review in 2016 and yielded over 400 comments. Based on these comments, BTO compiled a second draft report that addressed many of those comments while acknowledging changes that had occurred both at BTO and in the industry. Unlike the first draft report, the second focused much more heavily on BTO’s own role, portfolio, and activities. BTO is a direct player in the BEM field - it funds the development of several significant software packages that are embedded in commercial products - and transparency about its goals and future plans is requisite. BTO recognizes that a great number of other public and private organizations contribute to the BEM enterprise. With the second draft report, BTO did not attempt to produce a blueprint for the industry as a whole, but rather a working document BTO can use to iteratively solicit stakeholder input and synthesize it into a program. BTO released the second draft report for public review in 2019. The second round of review generated 83 pages of feedback and comments - almost exactly the length of the draft report itself - a significant portion of which was collected and synthesized by IBPSA-USA Advocacy Committee. This final report incorporates this feedback. This report does not address the use of BEM in support of building-based grid services, a recent BTO initiative called Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB). In 2019, BTO published a report that specifically addresses the role of BEM - and other “integration” technologies - in GEB.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Energy Infrastructure Dependency Curves Simulation Tool User’s Guide

Foundational studies of infrastructure interdependencies have attempted to make sense of the complex relationships among critical infrastructure. Beyond understanding the complexity of these interconnections, owner/operators and decision makers have a continuing need for a situational awareness capability tool to move beyond a conceptual understanding toward a more quantified, visual analytic method to enable more detailed real-world analysis and prioritization.The purpose and development of the Energy Infrastructure Dependency Curves Simulation Tool is to provide a means to display and analyze the complexities of infrastructure dependencies, in a way that is dynamic and can be easily manipulated. The tool focuses on the connections between two infrastructure assets, a natural gas-processing plant that relies on electric power, and an electric power-generating plant that depends on natural gas to produce electricity. The tool allows the user to enter information characterizing each asset and the dependence relationships, including details about core operations, backup function, shutdown, and resumption of service. Output is provided as a visualization of the performance of each asset over time, displaying impact, stages of operation, and resumption to full service. Input can be modified to enable the user to see how different scenarios or decisions would change the outcome. The intent of the tool is to provide the user with the ability to make informed decisions regarding operation of individual asset.This report presents an overview of the concepts used for developing the Energy Infrastructure Dependency Curves Simulation Tool and a detailed user guide that provides instructions on how to use the tool. Finally, three example scenarios are presented to illustrate dependency curve outputs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Support for Reactor Operators in Case of Cyber-Security Threats (NEUP Final Report)

Increasing use of digital technology in nuclear power plants (NPPs) poses cyber-security as a crucial threat to public safety and to continuous energy production. Cyber-security risks are comprised of complex known and unknown interactions between various entities, system vulnerabilities, network protocols, human users and malicious attacks. There is little understanding or research geared towards plant operators’ response under cyber-security threats and operational procedures to cope with such threats. This is particularly critical when a cyber-security event masquerades as a safety incident or an evolving accident. Instead of leading operators to the remediation of the accident, the masked cyber event may lead them to circumvent the safety mechanisms of the plant. Given these challenges, the objective of this project is to develop a tool to characterize abnormal NPP events as “cyber” or “safety” incidents, and to further develop this tool as a real-time operator aid to assist in response to the incident. This NEUP Final Report summarizes the research efforts towards the above goals and the results in the following three aspects. First, a methodology for classifying abnormal NPP events as cyber-attacks or safety incidents was developed. This provides the basis for responding to potential cyber-attacks. In this methodology, the causal relationships between various variables (i.e., physical variables, network variables, and control variables) for a nuclear system under consideration are modeled using dynamic Bayesian networks. Based on observations of certain variables (i.e., the evidence), inference is performed to identify the state of hidden variables, which helps indicate the occurrence of cyber-attacks or safety incidents. The proposed methodology was applied to the full scope NPP simulator system at The Ohio State University as a case study. The result shows that the proposed methodology is capable of distinguishing between cyber-attacks and safety incidents. Second, a game-theoretic approach for responding to cyber-attacks on nuclear power plants was developed. This is the second major goal of the project, and the method is used to recommend optimal responses to reactor operators in the case of cyber-attacks. We consider two cases in this research. In the first case, the interaction between the defender (i.e., the reactor operator) and the attacker is modeled as a two-player, nonzero-sum, Markov game with an infinite time horizon. In the second case, we consider a semi-Markov game between the defender and the attacker within a finite time horizon. The model in the second case enables us to consider the time sensitive response of the defender. In each case, the method for deriving the Nash equilibrium is developed. The Nash Equilibrium of the game provides the valid prediction of both players’ actions because no single player can benefit from unilaterally deviating from the equilibrium policy if the other player adheres to his/hers, hence it provides the best response of the defender to cyber-attacks. The proposed method in each case is demonstrated through a simplified benchmark digital feedwater control system. Third, a prototype display is developed to integrate the above information. The prototype display depicts the communication information to the operator and incorporates the cyber-security tool developed by the team into the interface. It consists of the regular display in current control rooms, as well as a panel used to indicate the occurrence of cyber-attacks or safety events and a panel used to guide the operator’s response to detected cyber-attacks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Management Practices and Tools: 2000-2004

This custom bibliography from the NASA Scientific and Technical Information Program lists a sampling of records found in the NASA Aeronautics and Space Database. The scope of this topic is divided into four parts and covers the adoption of proven personnel and management reforms to implement the national space exploration vision, including the use of "system-of-systems" approach; policies of spiral, evolutionary development; reliance upon lead systems integrators; and independent technical and cost assessments. This area of focus is one of the enabling technologies as defined by NASA s Report of the President s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy, published in June 2004.

Source record↗

System Verification Through Reliability, Availability, Maintainability (RAM) Analysis & Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs)

The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project, managed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), is authored by the Energy Policy Act of 2005, to research, develop, design, construct, and operate a prototype fourth generation nuclear reactor to meet the needs of the 21st Century. A section in this document proposes that the NGNP will provide heat for process heat applications. As with all large projects developing and deploying new technologies, the NGNP is expected to meet high performance and availability targets relative to current state of the art systems and technology. One requirement for the NGNP is to provide heat for the generation of hydrogen for large scale productions and this process heat application is required to be at least 90% or more available relative to other technologies currently on the market. To reach this goal, a RAM Roadmap was developed highlighting the actions to be taken to ensure that various milestones in system development and maturation concurrently meet required availability requirements. Integral to the RAM Roadmap was the use of a RAM analytical/simulation tool which was used to estimate the availability of the system when deployed based on current design configuration and the maturation level of the system.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Deep Learning and Likelihood Approaches for Viral Phylogeography Converge on the Same Answers Whether the Inference Model Is Right or Wrong

Abstract Analysis of phylogenetic trees has become an essential tool in epidemiology. Likelihood-based methods fit models to phylogenies to draw inferences about the phylodynamics and history of viral transmission. However, these methods are often computationally expensive, which limits the complexity and realism of phylodynamic models and makes them ill-suited for informing policy decisions in real-time during rapidly developing outbreaks. Likelihood-free methods using deep learning are pushing the boundaries of inference beyond these constraints. In this paper, we extend, compare, and contrast a recently developed deep learning method for likelihood-free inference from trees. We trained multiple deep neural networks using phylogenies from simulated outbreaks that spread among 5 locations and found they achieve close to the same levels of accuracy as Bayesian inference under the true simulation model. We compared robustness to model misspecification of a trained neural network to that of a Bayesian method. We found that both models had comparable performance, converging on similar biases. We also implemented a method of uncertainty quantification called conformalized quantile regression that we demonstrate has similar patterns of sensitivity to model misspecification as Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) and greatly overlap with HPDs, but have lower precision (more conservative). Finally, we trained and tested a neural network against phylogeographic data from a recent study of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Europe and obtained similar estimates of region-specific epidemiological parameters and the location of the common ancestor in Europe. Along with being as accurate and robust as likelihood-based methods, our trained neural networks are on average over 3 orders of magnitude faster after training. Our results support the notion that neural networks can be trained with simulated data to accurately mimic the good and bad statistical properties of the likelihood functions of generative phylogenetic models.

Evolutionary Biology↗

Policy-Driven Sustainable Saline Drainage Disposal and Forage Production in the Western San Joaquin Valley of California

Environmental policies to address water quality impairments in the San Joaquin River of California have focused on the reduction of salinity and selenium-contaminated subsurface agricultural drainage loads from westside sources. On 31 December 2019, all of the agricultural drainage from a 44,000 ha subarea on the western side of the San Joaquin River basin was curtailed. This policy requires the on-site disposal of all of the agricultural drainage water in perpetuity, except during flooding events, when emergency drainage to the River is sanctioned. The reuse of this saline agricultural drainage water to irrigate forage crops, such as ‘Jose’ tall wheatgrass and alfalfa, in a 2428 ha reuse facility provides an economic return on this pollutant disposal option. Irrigation with brackish water requires careful management to prevent salt accumulation in the crop root zone, which can impact forage yields. The objective of this study was to optimize the sustainability of this reuse facility by maximizing the evaporation potential while achieving cost recovery. This was achieved by assessing the spatial and temporal distribution of the root zone salinity in selected fields of ‘Jose’ tall wheatgrass and alfalfa in the drainage reuse facility, some of which have been irrigated with brackish subsurface drainage water for over fifteen years. Electromagnetic soil surveys using an EM-38 instrument were used to measure the spatial variability of the salinity in the soil profile. The tall wheatgrass fields were irrigated with higher salinity water (1.2–9.3 dS m -1 ) compared to the fields of alfalfa (0.5–6.5 dS m -1 ). Correspondingly, the soil salinity in the tall wheatgrass fields was higher (12.5 dS m -1 –19.3 dS m -1 ) compared to the alfalfa fields (8.97 dS mm -1 –14.4 dS mm -1 ) for the years 2016 and 2017. Better leaching of salts was observed in the fields with a subsurface drainage system installed (13–1 and 13–2). The depth-averaged root zone salinity data sets are being used for the calibration of the transient hydro-salinity computer model CSUID-ID (a one-dimensional version of the Colorado State University Irrigation Drainage Model). This user-friendly decision support tool currently provides a useful framework for the data collection needed to make credible, field-scale salinity budgets. In time, it will provide guidance for appropriate leaching requirements and potential blending decisions for sustainable forage production. This paper shows the tie between environmental drainage policy and the role of local governance in the development of sustainable irrigation practices, and how well-directed collaborative field research can guide future resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using the LandCast Model With Firm Maps for Population Distribution Estimation on a Local Scale in Houston, Texas

Flooding is a significant concern with ninety percent of all natural disasters in the U.S. involving a flood (Flood Insurance Reform, 2017). This study is intended to provide a model for greater understanding of the future population distribution impact of flood risk consideration in planning and development. The ‘LandCast’ model will be used as a tool to apply a local analysis for the Houston/Harris County, Texas area to understand how consideration of floodplain maps in development can change future population distribution. Using the LandCast model, this study looks at how the geographic population distribution of Houston/Harris County might change in 2030 and 2050 if flood risk were a stronger policy consideration in future development. The intention is not to propose solutions to the flooding problem, but rather provide greater understanding to local planners and policy-makers of how the population would shift geographically if floodplain areas were excluded from future development.

Whitlock, Carrie A.↗

Industrial Locomotive Inventory Analysis

Due to their captive and local operations, industrial locomotives present a unique potential to reduce energy consumption and associated costs through application of advanced locomotive technologies. However, until now, there has been no data source for the number, size (hp), usage, and energy consumption of these locomotives, which limits the ability to design and implement a research, development, and deployment strategy. This research addresses this gap by developing the first national inventory of locomotives in industrial use and provides a tool to explore the energy and emissions associated with this transportation segment.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Transition Dynamics in the Nascent Bioproducts Industry

Bioproducts are chemicals derived from a biomass feedstock that can be produced on their own or as biofuel co-products. Historically, bioproduct developers have faced significant barriers in scaling up bioproduct technologies and in bringing bioproducts to market, resulting in a high failure rate for bioproduct development projects. To date, there has been essentially no research done on the factors that lead to a bioproduct successfully capturing market share and why bioproduct projects fail. We address this knowledge gap with a model of the transition dynamics involved in taking a bioproduct technology from applied research to commercial production and the interactions between bioproduct developers, investors providing private funds, and federal government agencies which may provide cost-sharing and production incentives. This model incorporates several novel techniques including stochastic submodels and forecasts of market shares and company performance. Our research objectives are to identify relevant factors and mechanisms that impact bioproduct success and to develop a decision support tool, the Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) system dynamics model, that can be used by investors, bioproduct developers and government agencies to bring more bioproducts to market and to grow the nascent bioproducts industry.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

WAP Innovation and Collaboration: Updates from NREL

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) gives an update on initiatives supporting the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). This presentation explains how to leverage NREL's cutting-edge resources, tools, and workforce initiatives to strengthen organizations' impact within the WAP network.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗

The PHASE Project: New Research and Tools to Inform Pollinator Habitat on Utility-Scale Solar

The solar industry is responding to demand for building a clean energy future. At the same time, pollinator declines and habitat losses are resulting in listing consideration for once-common species like monarch butterflies, plus petitions to list bees and other species. How can projects responsibly co-locate pollinator plantings at solar facilities? What ecological and performance benefits can be realized from pollinator plantings? How do developers and owners weigh the costs and challenges of maintaining pollinator plantings and determine the effects it has on power generation, community acceptance, and operations? The Pollinator Habitat Aligned with Solar Energy (PHASE) project is a four-year research project that aims to answer these questions and better support the solar industry in successfully implementing pollinator plantings. This project is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Energy Technologies Office. In collaboration with an advisory group composed of industry and technical professionals, the PHASE team developed methodologies to evaluate the impacts of plantings on both biodiversity and the facility operations, including the diversity of plant and insect communities, pollinator services being provided by the site, and the effects of pollinator vegetation on panel temperature and efficiency. The PHASE team also used data to develop tools designed to better support solar industry decision-making on pollinator vegetation including a Pollinator Planting Implementation Manual, a Cost Comparison Tool, a Seed Selection Tool, and Habitat Assessment Module Guidance. Final versions of the four tools will be released this year.

agrivoltaic↗

Creative destruction: dismantling our past to build a better future - 15072

Innovation Economics hypothesizes that a firm's innovative capacity, stimulated by appropriable knowledge and technological externalities, has a greater impact on economic growth rather than the neoclassical view of capital accumulation. Under this theory, creative destruction is defined as the constant process of industrial evolution that cannibalizes older markets to create new enterprise. Economic momentum is stimulated through the creation of new markets based on demand for consumer goods and the resulting innovations for production and transportation. For firms currently engaged in the management of radioactive waste, listening to the 'Stakeholder's Voice' improves the product and service realization, leading to a competitive advantage in the marketplace. To illustrate the potential for economic development, a case study is provided on how a 'Recycle and Reuse' business strategy provides the tools to leverage unique resources to ensure a firm's survival and market prominence. As a concept, creative destruction serves to educate the reader on the mutual gains to the private and public sector fuelled by improvements in our ecosystem's capacity and capabilities. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

CoNNECT: Data Analytics for Energy Efficient Communities

Energy efficiency is the lowest cost option being promoted for achieving a sustainable energy policy. Thus, there have been some innovations to reduce residential and commercial energy usage. There have also been calls to the utility companies to give customers access to timely, useful, and actionable information about their energy use, in order to unleash additional innovations in homes and businesses. Hence, some web-based tools have been developed for the public to access and compare energy usage data. In order to advance on these efforts, we propose a data analytics framework called Citizen Engagement for Energy Efficient Communities (CoNNECT). On the one hand, CoNNECT will help households to understand (i) the patterns in their energy consumption over time and how those patterns correlate with weather data, (ii) how their monthly consumption compares to other households living in houses of similar size and age within the same geographic areas, and (iii) what other customers are doing to reduce their energy consumption. We hope that the availability of such data and analysis to the public will facilitate energy efficiency efforts in residential buildings. These capabilities formed the public portal of the CoNNECT framework. On the other hand, CoNNECT will help the utility companies to better understand their customers by making available to the utilities additional datasets that they naturally do not have access to, which could help them develop focused services for their customers. These additional capabilities are parts of the utility portal of the CoNNECT framework. In this paper, we describe the CoNNECT framework, the sources of the data used in its development, the functionalities of both the public and utility portals, and the application of empirical mode decomposition for decomposing usage signals into mode functions with the hope that such mode functions could help in clustering customers into unique groups and in developing guidelines for energy conservation.

CoNNECT↗

Case Studies and Model Guidance for Establishing Solar Cybersecurity Working Groups

This tool outlines actions that states can take to establish state-level working groups, which can be a critical first step to establishing state cybersecurity programs and efforts to support cybersecurity in distributed energy resources. Specifically, these working groups can lead the development of cybersecurity task forces focused around distributed energy resources, formal recommendations for policy makers and regulators, and the creation of a response strategies and plans for cybersecurity impacts or incidents in solar photovoltaic systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Low-Carbon City Policy Databook: 72 Policy Recommendations for Chinese Cities from the Benchmarking and Energy Savings Tool for Low Carbon Cities

This report is designed to help city authorities evaluate and prioritize more than 70 different policy strategies that can reduce their city’s energy use and carbon-based greenhouse gas emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ). Local government officials, researchers, and planners can utilize the report to identify policies most relevant to local circumstances and to develop a low carbon city action plan that can be implemented in phases, over a multi-year timeframe. The policies cover nine city sectors: industry, public and commercial buildings, residential buildings, transportation, power and heat, street lighting, water & wastewater, solid waste, and urban green space. See Table 1 for a listing of the policies. Recognizing the prominence of urban industry in the energy and carbon inventories of Chinese cities, this report includes low carbon city policies for the industrial sector. The policies gathered here have proven effective in multiple locations around the world and have the potential to achieve future energy and carbon savings in Chinese cities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Development of understanding of disposability of high-heat-generating wastes in the UK - 15359

The inventory of radioactive wastes planned for geological disposal in the UK is diverse. This inventory includes a range of high-heat-generating wastes and potentially some other nuclear materials (some spent fuel, uranium and plutonium) that are subject to government policy decisions and therefore may be declared as wastes for geological disposal in the future. To ensure that safe disposal solutions can be developed, it will be necessary to understand the influence of this heat on engineered barrier systems for the range of generic disposal concepts being considered in the UK. Furthermore, waste producers need to develop packaging solutions for these materials that take account of any thermal constraints. For these reasons, RWM has established the High-heat-generating Wastes Project (Project Ankhiale), a dedicated project to enhance understanding of the factors affecting geological disposal of high-heat-generating wastes with a view to supporting future decision making and concept selection. The project has been established around a multi-disciplinary Integrated Project Team (IPT), comprising members of RWM, Amec Foster Wheeler and external experts, to provide a comprehensive approach across a range of technical disciplines. Phase 2 of the project, which comprises a series of specific technical activities, commenced in March 2013 and, since then, progress has been made across the following five broad categories: - Compilation of the inventory of UK high-heat-generating wastes;- Waste package performance work; - Development of a better understanding of thermal constraints for different buffer materials; - Exploration of the range of disposal parameters using a thermal dimensioning modelling tool; and - Concept engineering design work. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

2015 Cost of Wind Energy Review

This report uses representative commercial projects to estimate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for both land-based and offshore wind plants in the United States for 2015. Scheduled to be published on an annual basis, the analysis relies on both market and modeled data to maintain an up-to-date understanding of wind generation cost trends and drivers. It is intended to provide insight into current component-level costs and a basis for understanding variability in the LCOE across the industry. Data and tools developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are used in this analysis to inform wind technology cost projections, goals, and improvement opportunities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗