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At least 397 records · Page 22

Application of PoF Based Virtual Qualification Methods for Reliability Assessment of Mission Critical PCBs

Reliability is the ability of a product to perform the function for which it was intended for a specified period of time (or cycles) for a given set of life cycle conditions. In today's compressed mission development cycles where designing, building and testing the physical models has to occur in a matter of months not years, Projects don't have the luxury of iteratively building and testing those models. Physics of failure (PoF) is an engineering-based approach to reliability that begins with an understanding of materials, processes, physical interactions, degradation and failure mechanisms, as well as identifying failure models. The PoF approach uses modeling and simulation to qualify a design and manufacturing process, with the ultimate intent of eliminating failures early in the design process by addressing the root cause. The physics-of-failure analysis proactively incorporates reliability into the design process by establishing a scientific basis for evaluating new materials, structures and technologies. Virtual physics-of-failure modeling allows engineers to determine if new technological node can be added to an existing system. This presentation will illustrate an application of a PoF based tool during the initial phases of a printed circuit board assembly development and how the NASA GSFC team was able to dynamically study the effects of electronics parts and printed circuit board material configuration changes under simulated thermal and vibrational stresses

Electronics packaging↗

Transfer-AE: A novel autoencoder-based impact detection model for structural digital twin

Accurately detecting the location and intensity of impacts is crucial for ensuring structural safety. Currently, AI-based structural impact detection methods are widely used for their excellent detection accuracy. However, their generalization capability is limited by the scenarios present in the training data. Many complex and dangerous impact scenarios are difficult to conduct real-world experiments on to collect sufficient samples. To capture all impact scenarios and fully leverage the advantages of AI-based detection technologies, advanced methods involve combining real-world structural monitoring data with corresponding numerical models to construct digital twins. These methods continuously refine the created numerical models with limited real-world data and provide diverse impact scenarios through numerical model simulations. However, there are inevitable differences between digital models and physical models that are challenging to correct through mechanical means. This discrepancy in data distribution between the two models significantly hinders the application of digital twin technology in impact/event identification tasks. To address this challenge, this study proposes a novel model based on autoencoders, named Transfer-AE. Transfer-AE encodes the common features of digital twins in the latent space to bridge the uncertainty gap at a macro scale between numerical models and physical models and synchronously fits the magnitude and location of the impact load in the decoder. This enables consistent detection results for the same impact event, whether the sample comes from the numerical model or the physical model. Transfer-AE includes two operating modes: Mode 1 has a fixed computational complexity with stable inference speed, but the training cost and difficulty increase with data distribution. Mode 2's computational complexity increases with data distribution, but it has a fixed training cost and speed. In both cases involving the geodesic dome structure simulating a deep space habitat and the IASC-ASCE benchmark structure, Transfer-AE demonstrated the best performance in impact localization and quantification tasks compared to mainstream domain-adaptive transfer models.

Chengjia Han↗

Sharp Interface Tracking in Rotating Microflows of Solvent Extraction

The objective of this project is to develop a specialized sharp interface tracking simulation capability for predicting interaction of micron-sized drops and bubbles in rotating flows relevant to optimized design of contactor devices used in solvent extraction processes of spent nuclear fuel reprocessing. The primary outcomes of this project include the capability to resolve drops and bubbles micro-hydrodynamics in solvent extraction contactors, determining from first principles continuum fluid mechanics how micro-drops and bubbles interact with each other and the surrounding shearing fluid for realistic flows. In the near term, this effort will play a central role in providing parameters and insight into the flow dynamics of models that average over coarser scales, say at the millimeter unit length. In the longer term, it will prove to be the platform to conduct full-device, detailed simulations as parallel computing power reaches the exaflop level. The team will develop an accurate simulation tool for flows containing interacting droplets and bubbles with sharp interfaces under conditions that mimic those found in realistic contactor operations. The main objective is to create an off-line simulation capability to model drop and bubble interactions in a domain representative of the averaged length scale. The technical approach is to combine robust interface tracking software, subgrid modeling, validation quality experiments, powerful computational hardware, and a team with simulation modeling, physical modeling and technology integration experience. Simulations will then fully resolve the microflow of drops and bubbles at the microsecond time scale. This approach is computationally intensive but very accurate in treating important coupled physical phenomena in the vicinity of interfaces. The method makes it possible to resolve spatial scales smaller than the typical distance between bubbles and to model some non-equilibrium thermodynamic features such as finite critical tension in cavitating liquids

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Comparison of the USU ionospheric model with the UCL-Sheffield coupled thermospheric-ionospheric model

Several physical models of the high-latitude ionosphere have been developed that describe the time-dependent evolution of the E- and F-region plasma density. The models require a variety of inputs, including solar EUV fluxes, magnetospheric convection, auroral precipitation, and neutral atmosphere. Of specific relevance to this study is how the neutral atmosphere is incorporated into the ionospheric models. For the USU ionospheric model, the neutral atmosphere is the MSIS 1986 empirical model, while for the UCL-Sheffield coupled thermospheric-ionospheric model the neutral atmosphere is computed simultaneously with the ionosphere. Both models were run for similar solar and magnetospheric conditions (solar maximum, moderate geomagnetic activity, and winter solstice). Solar maximum conditions ensured a strong coupling between the ionosphere and thermosphere, which provided the possibility of a large ionospheric difference between the two physical models. This was further enhanced by choosing winter conditions so that the densities were not dominated by sunlight. The comparison of the two models indicated that both models predict the same morphological features with similar ionospheric densities, generally within about 30 percent.

Sojka, J. J.↗

Search for physics beyond the standard model in dilepton mass spectra in proton-proton collisions at √s = 8 TeV

Dimuon and dielectron mass spectra, obtained from data resulting from proton-proton collisions at 8 TeV and recorded by the CMS experiment, are used to search for both narrow resonances and broad deviations from standard model predictions. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 20.6 (19.7) fb –1 for the dimuon (dielectron) channel. No evidence for non-standard-model physics is observed and 95% confidence level limits are set on parameters from a number of new physics models. The narrow resonance analyses exclude a Sequential Standard Model Z SSM ' resonance lighter than 2.90 TeV, a superstring-inspired Z ψ ' lighter than 2.57 TeV, and Randall-Sundrum Kaluza-Klein gravitons with masses below 2.73, 2.35, and 1.27 TeV for couplings of 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01, respectively. A notable feature is that the limits have been calculated in a model-independent way to enable straightforward reinterpretation in any model predicting a resonance structure. The observed events are also interpreted within the framework of two non-resonant analyses: one based on a large extra dimensions model and one based on a quark and lepton compositeness model with a left-left isoscalar contact interaction. Lower limits are established on MS, the scale characterizing the onset of quantum gravity, which range from 4.9 to 3.3 TeV, where the number of additional spatial dimensions varies from 3 to 7. Thus lower limits on Λ, the energy scale parameter for the contact interaction, are found to be 12.0 (15.2) TeV for destructive (constructive) interference in the dimuon channel and 13.5 (18.3) TeV in the dielectron channel.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Natural Air-Sea Flux of CO2 in Simulations of the NASA-GISS Climate Model: Sensitivity to the Physical Ocean Model Formulation

Results from twin control simulations of the preindustrial CO2 gas exchange (natural flux of CO2) between the ocean and the atmosphere are presented here using the NASA-GISS climate model, in which the same atmospheric component (modelE2) is coupled to two different ocean models, the Russell ocean model and HYCOM. Both incarnations of the GISS climate model are also coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (NOBM) which estimates prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2. Model intercomparison is carried out at equilibrium conditions and model differences are contrasted with biases from present day climatologies. Although the models agree on the spatial patterns of the air-sea flux of CO2, they disagree on the strength of the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean sinks mainly because of kinematic (winds) and chemistry (pCO2) differences rather than thermodynamic (SST) ones. Biology/chemistry dissimilarities in the models stem from the different parameterizations of advective and diffusive processes, such as overturning, mixing and horizontal tracer advection and to a lesser degree from parameterizations of biogeochemical processes such as gravitational settling and sinking. The global meridional overturning circulation illustrates much of the different behavior of the biological pump in the two models, together with differences in mixed layer depth which are responsible for different SST, DIC and nutrient distributions in the two models and consequently different atmospheric feedbacks (in the wind, net heat and freshwater fluxes into the ocean).

Gas exchange↗

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS)

Prediction of climate relies on models, and better model prediction depends on good model physics. Improving model physics requires the maximal utilization of climate data of the past, present and future. CEOP provides the first example of a comprehensive, integrated global and regional data set, consisting of globally gridded data, reference site in-situ observations, model location time series (MOLTS), and integrated satellite data for a two-year period covering two complete annual cycles of 2003-2004. The monsoon regions are the most important socio-economically in terms of devastation by floods and droughts, and potential impacts from climate change md fluctuatinns nf the hydrologic cyc!e. Scientifically, it is most challenging, because of complex interactions of atmosphere, land and oceans, local vs. remote forcings in contributing to climate variability and change in the region. Given that many common features, and physical teleconnection exist among different monsoon regions, an international research focus on monsoon must be coordinated and sustained. Current models of the monsoon are grossly inadequate for regional predictions. For improvement, models must be confronted with relevant observations, and model physic developers must be made to be aware of the wealth of information from existing climate data, field measurements, and satellite data that can be used to improve models. Model transferability studles must be conducted. CIMS is a major initiative under CEOP to engage the modeling and the observational communities to join in a coordinated effort to study the monsoons. The objectives of CIMS are (a) To provide a better understanding of fundamental physical processes (diurnal cycle, annual cycle, and intraseasonal oscillations) in monsoon regions around the world and (b) To demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. In this talk, I will present the basic concepts of CIMS and the key scientific problems facing monsoon climates and provide examples of common monsoon features, and possible monsoon induced teleconnections linking different parts of the world.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Improving River Routing Using a Differentiable Muskingum‐Cunge Model and Physics‐Informed Machine Learning

Recently, rainfall-runoff simulations in small headwater basins have been improved by methodological advances such as deep neural networks (NNs) and hybrid physics-NN models—particularly, a genre called differentiable modeling that intermingles NNs with physics to learn relationships between variables. However, hydrologic routing simulations, necessary for simulating floods in stem rivers downstream of large heterogeneous basins, had not yet benefited from these advances and it was unclear if the routing process could be improved via coupled NNs. We present a novel differentiable routing method (δMC-Juniata-hydroDL2) that mimics the classical Muskingum-Cunge routing model over a river network but embeds an NN to infer parameterizations for Manning's roughness (n) and channel geometries from raw reach-scale attributes like catchment areas and sinuosity. The NN was trained solely on downstream hydrographs. Synthetic experiments show that while the channel geometry parameter was unidentifiable, n can be identified with moderate precision. With real-world data, the trained differentiable routing model produced more accurate long-term routing results for both the training gage and untrained inner gages for larger subbasins (>2,000 km2) than either a machine learning model assuming homogeneity, or simply using the sum of runoff from subbasins. The n parameterization trained on short periods gave high performance in other periods, despite significant errors in runoff inputs. The learned n pattern was consistent with literature expectations, demonstrating the framework's potential for knowledge discovery, but the absolute values can vary depending on training periods. The trained n parameterization can be coupled with traditional models to improve national-scale hydrologic flood simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MeVPrtl: An Event Generator for Dark Sector Particles in the Short-Baseline Neutrino Program

MeVPrtl is a modular event generator of beyond the Standard Model (BSM) physics particles developed for use in the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program. A large class of BSM physics models predict that new particles could be produced in the intense Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) and Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) beams at Fermilab, travel to the SBN Program detectors, and decay into Standard Model (SM) particles. These new physics models are motivated by dark matter, the neutrino mass scale, and a solution to the strong CP problem. MeVPrtl provides an interface to implement the overlapping phenomenology of these models, and to connect them with meson flux inputs and object outputs used by the SBN Program's LArSoft-based detector simulation. Implementations for the Higgs portal, heavy neutral lepton, and heavy QCD axion models exist within MeVPrtl. In this paper these implementations and their validation, as well as details of the MeVPrtl interface, are specified.

Abratenko Ao, P.↗

Integrating physics-based models with sensor data: An inverse modeling approach

Physics-based building energy models (e.g., EnergyPlus) rely on some unknown input parameters (e.g., zone air infiltration) that are hard to measure, leading to uncertainty in simulation results especially for existing buildings with varying operating conditions. With the increasing deployment of smart thermostats, zone air temperature data are readily available, posing a new opportunity for building energy modeling if such data can be harnessed. This study presents a novel inverse modeling approach which inverses the zone air heat balance equation and uses the measured zone air temperature to analytically calculate the zone air infiltration rate and zone internal thermal mass (e.g., furniture, interior partitions), which are two important model parameters with great variability and difficult to measure. This paper introduces the technical concept and algorithms of the inverse models, their implementation in EnergyPlus, and verification using EnergyPlus simulated building performance data. The inverse modeling approach provides new opportunities for integrating data from massive IoT sensors and devices to enhance the accuracy of simulation results which are used to inform decision making on energy retrofits and efficiency improvements of existing buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Statistically Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification for Physical Parameter Model Calibration with Functional Output

In experiments conducted on the Z-machine at Sandia National Laboratories, dynamic material properties cannot be analyzed using traditional analytic methods, necessitating solving an inverse problem. Bayesian model calibration is a statistical framework for solving an inverse problem to estimate parameters input into a computational model in the presence of multiple uncertainties. Disentangling input parameter uncertainty and model misspecification is often poorly identified problem. When using computational models for physical parameter estimation, the issue of parameter identifiability must be carefully considered to obtain accurate and precise estimates of physical parameters. Additionally, in dynamic material properties applications, the experimental output is a function, velocity over time. While we can sample an arbitrarily large number of points from the measured velocity, these curves only contain a finite amount of information about the calibration parameters. In this report, we propose modifications to the Bayesian model calibration framework to simplify and improve the estimation of physical parameters with functional outputs. Specifically, we propose scaling the likelihood function by an effective sample size rather than modeling the discrepancy function; and modularizing input nuisance parameters with weakly identified parameters. We evaluate the performance of these proposed methods using a statistical simulation study and then apply these methods to estimate parameters of the tantalum equation of state. We conclude that these proposed methods can provide simple, fast, and statistically valid alternatives to the full Bayesian model calibration procedure; and that these methods can be used to estimate parameters of the equation of state for tantalum.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

On a physics-based model equation for shock-position evolution in PMMA

A governing differential equation for shock position in PMMA was derived from momentum conservation and an experimentally determined decay law for shock pressure. A new multi-diagnostic characterization method for measuring detonator pressure and wave shape output in PMMA witness blocks provided temporally resolved, 1-D, shock-position data that was iteratively fit by solutions to the governing equation via a unique genetic algorithm solver. The goal was to calculate a solution that describes the temporal evolution of shock pressure in PMMA starting at the detonator interface. The empirical decay law was investigated using experimental data, where different regimes were considered for the decay coefficients. A successful solution provides extensive performance information that is directly relevant to the understanding and characterization of detonator function.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

GeantV alpha release

In the fall 2016, GeantV went through a thorough community evaluation of the project status and of its strategy for sharing the R&D results with the LHC experiments and with the HEP simulation community in general. Following this discussion, GeantV has engaged onto an ambitious 2-year road-path aiming to deliver a beta version that has most of the final design and several performance features of the final product, partially integrated with some of the experiment’s frameworks. The initial GeantV prototype has been updated to a vector-aware concurrent framework, which is able to deliver high-density floating-point computations for most of the performance-critical components such as propagation in field and physics models. Electromagnetic physics models were adapted for the specific GeantV requirements, aiming for the full demonstration of shower physics performance in the alpha release at the end of 2017. We have revisited and formalized GeantV user interfaces and helper protocols, allowing to: connect to user code, provide recipes to access efficiently MC truth and generate user data in a concurrent environment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Calibration of cloud and aerosol related parameters for solar irradiance forecasts in WRF-solar

Model parameters are a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction. Recently, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar) has been upgraded by enhancing the treatment of sub-grid scale cloud and aerosols with augmentations of a sub-grid scale cloud scheme (CLD3) and an upgraded aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer scheme (TE14). However, the value of model parameters associated with these parameterizations are assigned based on limited measurements or theoretical calculations. Calibrating the most sensitive parameters has the potential to improve solar irradiance predictions. Here, we adopted a multiobjective surrogate-based optimization (SBO) framework to calibrate nine parameters used in CLD3 and TE14 that lead to the largest sensitivity in simulated irradiance. The normalized mean-absolute-error (NMAE) of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are minimized by calibrating WRF-Solar over two regions including the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Central California, in order to focus on parameter calibration under cloudy conditions with different aerosol loading. The results show that generalized linear model (GLM)-based surrogate models approximate physical models well, particularly when the third order and three-way interaction terms are considered. The SBO framework efficiently searches the parameter space for optimal solutions with less computational costs than directly calibrating the physical model. We first calibrate CLD3 parameters over the less-polluted SGP region. Optimized CLD3 parameters alone result in NMAE reduction by 14% for the site-mean and up to 33% for individual cases over the SGP region. With further calibration of TE14 parameters over the Central California during active fire periods, the optimized parameters lead to over 20% reductions of NMAE. Our investigation reveals, however, that optimizing TE14 has a limited impact on irradiance simulations under less-polluted conditions in the SGP.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DESS (Differential Equation System Solver) [SWR-24-48]

The Differential Equation System Solver (DESS) is a Rust crate implementing fixed-step and adaptive-step solvers and designed especially for modeling physical systems. Seven explicit ordinary differential equation (ODE) solver methods have been added so far: Euler’s, Heun’s, Midpoint, Ralston’s, Classic Runge-Kutta, Bogacki-Shampine, and Cash-Karp. These comprise five fixed-step methods and two adaptive-step methods. Few solver packages are implemented in the Rust ecosystem and none are intended specifically for physical system modeling, so the goal of DESS is to create a Rust ODE solver crate designed to easily specify and model physical systems with modular, configurable solver options. In addition to allowing users to directly input equations to solve, DESS allows users to optionally specify and define relationships between nodes in their system, which the package then translates into a system of equations via the Rust macro system, leading to simpler and more intuitive code.

Steuteville, Robin↗