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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Remote Americium Detection Using an Optical Sensor: A D-Optimal Strategy for Efficient PLS-Based Modeling

A fiber-optic visible–near-infrared absorption spectroscopy system in a glove box was demonstrated for remote quantification of Am(III) (0–500 µM) and HNO 3 (0.1–9 M) using partial least squares regression (PLSR) models. The sensor platform, featuring a simple plug-and-play spectrophotometer, can enable noninvasive, real-time monitoring of actinide process solutions. To establish a flexible PLSR model calibration strategy, a D-optimal design developed using Nd(III) in previous studies was successfully extended to an actinide system with Am(III) to effectively minimize sample set size while maintaining robust prediction performance. The results suggest strong spectral similarities between Nd(III) and Am(III) and validate Nd(III) as an effective optical surrogate for trivalent actinide species. This work also supports the generalizability of a D-optimal training set selection approach for two-factor systems. The PLS1 models for Am(III) and HNO 3 outperformed a PLS2 model and maintained reasonable performance in the presence of interfering U(VI). The resulting sensor system and multivariate approach provides a flexible and scalable solution for process monitoring, control, and safety in diverse nuclear applications.

actinide↗
DOE OSTI2025

Source Analysis of Ozone Pollution in Liaoyuan City’s Atmosphere Based on Machine Learning Models and HYSPLIT Clustering Method

Firstly, this study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the ozone (O 3 ) pollution in Liaoyuan City using monitoring data from 2015 to 2024. Then, three machine learning models (ML)—random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)—are employed to quantify the influence of meteorological and non-meteorological factors on O 3 concentrations. Finally, the HYSPLIT clustering method and CMAQ model are utilized to analyze inter-regional transport characteristics, identifying the causes of O 3 pollution. The results indicate that O 3 pollution in Liaoyuan exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern, with the highest concentrations found in spring and summer, peaking in the afternoon. Among the three ML models, the random forest model demonstrates the best predictive performance (R 2 = 0.9043). Feature importance identifies NO 2 as the primary driving factor, followed by meteorological conditions in the second quarter and land surface characteristics. Furthermore, regional transport significantly contributes to O 3 pollution, with approximately 80% of air mass trajectories in heavily polluted episodes originating from adjacent industrial areas and the sea. The combined effects of transboundary precursors and O 3 transport with local emissions and meteorological conditions further increase the O 3 pollution level. This study highlights the need to strengthen coordinated NO X and VOCs emission reductions and enhance regional joint prevention and control strategies in China.

HYSPLIT clustering↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian approach to evaluation of soil biogeochemical models

Abstract. To make predictions about the carbon cycling consequences of rising global surface temperatures, Earth system scientists rely on mathematical soil biogeochemical models (SBMs). However, it is not clear which models have better predictive accuracy, and a rigorous quantitative approach for comparing and validating the predictions has yet to be established. In this study, we present a Bayesian approach to SBM comparison that can be incorporated into a statistical model selection framework. We compared the fits of linear and nonlinear SBMs to soil respiration data compiled in a recent meta-analysis of soil warming field experiments. Fit quality was quantified using Bayesian goodness-of-fit metrics, including the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) and leave-one-out cross validation (LOO). We found that the linear model generally outperformed the nonlinear model at fitting the meta-analysis data set. Both WAIC and LOO computed higher overfitting risk and effective numbers of parameters for the nonlinear model compared to the linear model, conditional on the data set. Goodness of fit for both models generally improved when they were initialized with lower and more realistic steady-state soil organic carbon densities. Still, testing whether linear models offer definitively superior predictive performance over nonlinear models on a global scale will require comparisons with additional site-specific data sets of suitable size and dimensionality. Such comparisons can build upon the approach defined in this study to make more rigorous statistical determinations about model accuracy while leveraging emerging data sets, such as those from long-term ecological research experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Densely Connected G-invariant Deep Neural Networks with Signed Permutation Representations

We introduce and investigate, for finite groups G, G-invariant deep neural network (GDNN) architectures with ReLU activation that are densely connected- i.e., include all possible skip connections. In contrast to other G-invariant architectures in the literature, the preactivations of theG-DNNs presented here are able to transform by signed permutation representations (signed perm-reps) of G. Moreover, the individual layers of the G-DNNs are not required to be G-equivariant; instead, the preactivations are constrained to be G-equivariant functions of the network input in a way that couples weights across all layers. The result is a richer family of G-invariant architectures never seen previously. We derive an efficient implementation of G-DNNs after a reparameterization of weights, as well as necessary and sufficient conditions for an architecture to be "admissible"- i.e., nondegenerate and inequivalent to smaller architectures. We include code that allows a user to build a G-DNN interactively layer-by-layer, with the final architecture guaranteed to be admissible. We show that there are far more admissible G-DNN architectures than those accessible with the "concatenated ReLU" activation function from the literature. Finally, we apply G-DNNs to two example problems--(1) multiplication in --1, 1} (with theoretical guarantees) and (2) 3D object classification--finding that the inclusion of signed perm-reps significantly boosts predictive performance compared to baselines with only ordinary (i.e., unsigned) perm-reps.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quasi-Coherent Fluctuations Limiting the Pedestal Growth on Alcator C-Mod: Experiment and Modeling

Performance predictions for future fusion devices rely on an accurate model of the pedestal structure. The leading candidate for predictive pedestal structure is EPED, and it is imperative to test the underlying hypotheses to further gain confidence for ITER projections. Here, we present experimental work testing one of the EPED hypotheses, namely the existence of a soft limit set by microinstabilities such as the kinetic ballooning mode (KBM). This work extends recent work on Alcator C-Mod [Diallo, et al., Phys. Rev. Lett., , (2014), 115001], to include detailed measurements of the edge fluctuations and comparisons of edge simulation codes and experimental observations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Interface in Additively Manufactured Interpenetrating Composites

Additively Manufactured Interpenetrating Composites (AMIPCs) are a relatively new metal-metal chain composite in development for use in high energy absorption systems. In this system, reinforcing phase of additively manufactured continuous lattice configurations 316L austenitic stainless-steel is in melt infiltrated with a matrix phase of A356 aluminum-silicon casting alloy. Measurements and observations of this material system have shown that weakly bonded or open/porous interface between the reinforcement and matrix phases exhibits dramatically different mechanical properties of AMIPCs, which is not currently well understood. In this work, Finite Element Models (FEM) are used to model the effects of interfaces between the composite phases. Mechanical tensile tests measurements of various composite volume fractions and varying degrees of casting infiltration are also examined and used to show consistency with the FEM results. The outcome provides insight into material design criteria and performance predictions for new hybrid material systems with exceptional damage tolerance.

Allen, Jason↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multimodel ensemble predictions of precipitation using bayesian neural networks

Multimodel ensembling improves predictions and considers model uncertainties. In this study, we present a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) ensemble approach for large-scale precipitation predictions based on a set of climate models. BNN infers spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases through the calibration against observations. This ensemble scheme of BNN sufficiently leverages individual model skill for accurate predictions as well as provides interpretability about which models contribute more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times to inform model development. Additionally, BNN accurately quantifies epistemic uncertainty to avoid overconfident projections. We demonstrate BNN’s superior prediction performance to three state-of-the-art ensemble approaches and discuss its interpretability and uncertainty quantification.

Fan, Patrick↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multimodel Ensemble Predictions of Precipitation using Bayesian Neural Networks

Multimodel ensembling improves predictions and considers model uncertainties. In this study, we present a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) ensemble approach for large-scale precipitation predictions based on a set of climate models. BNN infers spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases through the calibration against observations. This ensemble scheme of BNN sufficiently leverages individual model skill for accurate predictions as well as provides interpretability about which models contribute more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times to inform model development. Additionally, BNN accurately quantifies epistemic uncertainty to avoid overconfident projections. We demonstrate BNN’s superior prediction performance to three state-of-the-art ensemble approaches and discuss its interpretability and uncertainty quantification.

Fan, Patrick↗
DOE OSTI2023

PRINTED, PLANAR MICROWAVE CONNECTOR WITH MULTIPLE SIGNAL LINES

Microwave connectors with a planar geometry have been demonstrated using additive manufacturing techniques. This planar form factor is expected to enable connectors to be integrated directly with other components onto a printed circuit board. The connectors were developed with multiple signal lines that will increase the density of signal connections to PCBs, eliminating the physical constraints of single-signal COTS microwave connectors. This work developed electromagnetic models (using Ansys HFSS) of these planar connectors to predict performance and optimize connector design. Materials and printing processes were developed to fabricate the connectors based on high-temperature PEEK thermoplastics. The multiple signal connectors were designed to operate over the 1-6GHz band and are built upon the single signal printed planar geometry connector introduced in a previous paper [1].

Additive Manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural Network Enhanced RKPM for Electrochemical-Mechanical Coupled Damage Modeling of Energy Storage Materials

Energy storage materials undergo significant charge cycling, which makes understanding their reliability and durability fundamental in predicting performance and service life. Strong electrochemical-mechanical coupling and highly anisotropic material properties contribute to the formation and propagation of micro-cracking, largely along material interfaces and grain boundaries. For Li-ion batteries, for example, lithium moving between electrodes during charging and discharging process causes expansion and contraction of grains, and the strongly anisotropic and nonlinearly [Li]-dependent grain material properties can cause grains to expand into and contract away from each other, leading to chemo-mechanical cracking. In the first part of this work, a RKPM based computational framework for solving the coupled solid-phase lithium conservation with Fickian diffusion and the lithium concentration dependent anisotropic mechanical problem subjected to a highly nonlinear Butler-Volmer boundary condition is introduced. The choice of RKPM completeness conditions for lithium concentration and mechanical deformation fields, and the variational consistency condition for the domain integration of the coupled problem is first determined. In the second part of this work, a neural network-enhanced reproducing kernel particle method (NN-RKPM) [1] is leveraged to accurately capture damage and crack propagation throughout the material, by learning the location, orientation, and sharpness of discontinuity while allowing for a coarser nodal distribution than that is necessary for capturing sharp solution transitions using traditional mesh-based methods. NN-RKPM is used to inform how crack opening and closure in turn affect the coupled chemical equations and material microstructure.

damage modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural Network-Enhanced Reproducing Kernel Particle Method for Image-Based Multiphysics Damage Modeling of Energy Storage Materials

Energy storage materials undergo significant stresses during charge/discharge cycling, which makes understanding their reliability and durability fundamental in predicting performance and service life. Strong electrochemical-mechanical coupling and highly anisotropic material properties contribute to the formation and propagation of micro-cracking, largely along material interfaces and grain boundaries. With microstructural images supplied by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), image-based modeling techniques are used to represent the complex material microstructures that dictate the coupled physics of these systems. Traditional electrochemical-mechanical models rely on mesh-based finite element methods, which can lead to difficulties in capturing crack propagation due to mesh dependency. Additionally, commonly used damage models, such as the continuous damage model and the cohesive zone model, often have steep tradeoffs between discontinuous field accuracy and computational expense. In this work, a neural network-enhanced reproducing kernel particle method (NN-RKPM) [1] is leveraged to accurately capture damage and crack propagation throughout the material by learning the location, orientation, and sharpness of discontinuity while allowing for a coarser nodal distribution than that necessary for capturing sharp solution transitions using traditional mesh-based methods. NN-RKPM is used to inform how crack opening and closure in turn affect the coupled chemical equations and material microstructure. Reference: [1] Baek, J., Chen, J. S., Susuki, K., "Neural Network enhanced Reproducing Kernel Particle Method for Modeling Localizations," International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering, Vol. 123, pp 4422-4454, https://doi.org/10.1002/nme.7040, 2022.

damage modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling for a Digital Twin-Based Remote Operation System Framework

New reactor designs and technologies are being developed to grow and advance the nuclear industry. Microreactors are one of the many new concepts for advancing the industry. Microreactors are very small reactors generally designed to have an operating power of 20 MWth or less. They are ideal for many applications in which it would not be feasible to have a large-scale reactor, such as powering remote communities, military bases, and mining sites. Many of these applications currently rely on diesel generators for power, and replacing those generators with the carbon-free energy of a microreactor is a major driving factor for microreactor development. However, most of the use cases for microreactors are in isolated locations where construction and labor costs are much higher. Microreactors will need to be comparable to other energy production methods for their deployment to be successful. Remotely operating the microreactor has a great potential to benefit the economics and make it more cost competitive. With remote operations, the operation facility location could be strategically chosen based on factors such as construction costs, workforce size, etc. The benefits of remote operations could be leveraged even more if the remote operation system is semi-autonomous. If the remote operation system is semi-autonomous, more microreactors could be operated and monitored from one remote operation facility. Additionally, with the system handling some tasks for the human operator, it could reduce the number of operating staff necessary for the microreactor. Digital twins can be used to introduce a level of automation to the remote operation system. Digital twins are capable of component monitoring, system operation and control, and predictive performance [1]. All of those features are important for a successful semi-autonomous remote operation system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fuel Performance Evaluation of THOR-C Experiments

The Temperature Heatsink Overpower Response Commissioning (THOR-C) and THOR-Metal (THOR-M) experiments will be performed as part of an ongoing project for testing sodium fast reactor fuels with the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). The THOR-C experiments consist of fresh metallic fuel pins and have been analyzed using the ABAQUS, Ansys codes and the BISON fuel performance code. THOR-M-Loss of Flow-1 (THOR-M-LOF-1) is designed to test an EBR-II irradiated fuel pin under LOF conditions. Simulation of the THOR-MLOF-1 experiment required first simulating the base irradiation of the fuel pin in EBR-II. MFUEL module of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 [1] is a physics-based metallic fuel performance model applicable to the normal operation, transient scenarios and fuel failure modeling including scenarios with bulk fuel melting. The model has been validated using EBR-II normal operation, separate effect transient tests as well as TREAT M-Series transient tests [2]. In this study, MFUEL models has been utilized together with a new capsule heat transfer model developed in this project. The new heat transfer model was necessary due to (1) significant amount of heat losses that required 2D heat transfer, (2) the presence of a titanium heat sink, rejecting a significant amount of heat, and (3) stagnant coolant conditions, which are inconsistent with SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) heat transfer model. Updates to SAS4A/SASSYS-1 and MFUEL has been described below, followed by a preliminary validation effort using the results from THOR-C-2 fresh fuel capsule experiment. A previous study for THOR-C-2 analysis using BISON code is also utilized in this study to model this test [3]. [1] D. O’Grady, A. J. Brunett, L. Ibarra, A. Karahan, T. Kim, T. S. Sumner, R. Thomas, T. H. Fanning, “The SAS4A/SASSYS-2 Version 5.7 Safety Analysis Code System,” Argonne National Laboratory,ANL/NSE-SAS/5.7, (2023). [2] A. Karahan, T. Kim, T. Fanning, D. O’Grady, “Validation of MFUEL Metal Fuel Performance Models of SAS4A/SASSYS-1,” Argonne National Laboratory, ANL/NSE-23/11, (2023). [3] M. Mihelish, A. Zabriskie, K. Paaren, P. Medvedev, C. Jensen, “Fuel Performance Predictions for the TREAT THOR-C Experiments,” Idaho National Laboratory, INL/RPT-23-73397, Revision 0, (2023)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydride Reprecipitation in Prototypical 17x17 PWR Fuel Rods after Simulated Vacuum Drying Conditions

Light water reactor (LWR) fuel rod cladding picks up hydrogen as it oxidizes in reactor. Once the hydrogen concentration exceeds the solubility limit, zirconium hydride platelets precipitate, generally in the circumferential direction. In preparation for dry storage, elevated temperatures can dissolve some of the circumferential hydrides, which during cooling can then reprecipitate in a direction perpendicular to the hoop stress (radially). From 2019 to 2024, ORNL published a series of reports that included metallographic observations of cladding after a thermal transient to 400°C followed by slow cooling. The simulated dry storage process was performed on three full-length 17x17 PWR fuel rods at their as-discharged rod internal pressure. There were two important observations from the metallographic examinations of these heat-treated rods: (1) the propensity for hydride reorientation is strongly influenced by nearby as-discharged precipitated hydrides, (2) the radial hydrides observed near the cladding inner diameter were often associated with cracks in the pellet. Subsequent modeling using the BISON fuel performance code that considered the effects of pellet cracks and pellet-cladding bonding observed in high-burnup fuel support the conclusion that pellet cracks enhance the local hoop stress in the cladding creating preferential sites for hydride reorientation, and that the influence of the pellet cannot be ignored in accurate fuel rod performance predictions.

Montgomery, Rose [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000286038936)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrating Immersive Visualization in Molten-Salt Reactor Waste Management for Experimental Design and Planning

The Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) represents a significant innovation in nuclear technology, offering several operational and safety benefits over traditional solid-fuel reactors. However, MSRs face uncertainties in waste management due to their flexible designs and variable waste compositions. To address these challenges, we propose a visualization platform that illustrates solutions and performance predictions for various waste management strategies, enhancing user experience and improving strategy and communication. Immersive visualizations are widely used in the nuclear industry for training, simulation, and safety enhancement. Our project aims to develop a visualization platform incorporating virtual reality (VR) technologies to illustrate MSR characteristics immediately following reactor shutdown. This immersive simulation will allow users to interact, explore, and understand different waste management strategies. The platform will display MSR reactor characterizations, including nuclide decay, salt solidification, and corrosion, which are crucial for assessing and selecting backend management strategies. Using the Meta Quest 3 VR headset with Unity software, our platform will provide real-scale visualizations, enabling users to experience and evaluate designs and plans as if they were physically present. This user-friendly interface will make complex data accessible and understandable for non-domain experts, aiding in decision-making for MSR waste management. Our proposed visualization workflow can be applied to other nuclear reactors, assisting in the design and planning of waste management strategies.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Challenges and Opportunities for HVAC + Phase Change Material Thermal Energy Storage in Buildings

Phase-change material (PCM) thermal-energy storage (TES) integrated with HVAC and domestic hot water (DHW) can shift a large share of building thermal loads. By flattening and shifting loads, PCM TES reduces peak electricity use, eases stress on local and grid infrastructure, and lowers costs. It can also defer costly upgrades to service panels, distribution, and transmission. Higher energy density relative to chilled or hot water storage makes PCM TES practical for small, space limited, and retrofit projects, while packaged HVAC-integrated systems expand cost-effective load shifting to commercial buildings that previously lacked options. Despite this promise, deployment faces barriers. This paper presents challenges, opportunities, and lessons learned from lab and field integrations of PCM TES with packaged HVAC systems. Key challenges include misalignment between default heat pump controls tuned for direct-to-load operation and TES charge/discharge objectives, PCM properties that diverge from manufacturer claims and evolve with cycling, and high integration and deployment costs with off-the-shelf products. These studies underscore the need for factory built, integrated systems that arrive as prepackaged modules with proven controls, reducing design and installation effort and delivering predictable performance across projects. The paper outlines steps to enable viable and scalable PCM TES HVAC and DHW systems, including 1) validated methods that can be used to characterize PCM properties and TES system performance, 2) supervisory controls that optimize charge/discharge scheduling, and 3) factory integrated packaging that eliminates bespoke field engineering.

Dutton, Spencer↗