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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Potential and Actual Evapotranspiration Fluxes Using Six Meteorological Data-Based Approaches for a Range of Climate and Land Cover Types

Evapotranspiration is the major component of the water cycle, so a correct estimate of this variable is fundamental. The purpose of the present research is to assess the monthly scale accuracy of six meteorological data-based models in the prediction of evapotranspiration (ET) losses by comparing the modelled fluxes with the observed ones from eight sites equipped with eddy covariance stations which differ in terms of vegetation and climate type. Three potential ET methods (Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor, and Blaney-Criddle models) and three actual ET models (the Advection-Aridity, the Granger and Gray, and the Antecedent Precipitation Index method) have been proposed. The findings show that the models performances differ from site to site and they depend on the vegetation and climate characteristics. Indeed, they show a wide range of error values ranging from 0.18 to 2.78. It has been not possible to identify a single model able to outperform the others in each biome, but in general, the Advection-Aridity approach seems to be the most accurate, especially when the model calibration in not carried out. It returns very low error values close to 0.38. When the calibration procedure is performed, the most accurate model is the Granger and Gray approach with minimum error of 0.13 but, at the same time, it is the most impacted by this process, and therefore, in a context of data scarcity, it results the less recommended for ET prediction. The performances of the investigated ET approaches have been furthermore tested in case of lack of measured data of soil heat fluxes and net radiation considering using empirical relationships based on meteorological data to derive these variables. Results show that, the use of empirical formulas to derive ET estimates increases the errors up to 200% with the consequent loss of model accuracy.

net radiation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying spectral albedo effects on bifacial photovoltaic module measurements and system model predictions

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the effect of spectral albedo on photovoltaic (PV) module measurements and system model predictions. We demonstrate how to account for albedo in indoor bifacial device measurements by adjusting the applied irradiance using the scaled rear irradiance method, exemplified on fabricated silicon heterojunction (SHJ) modules. System model performance is studied using a detailed 3D finite-element model, DUET, for fixed-tilt and horizontal single-axis tracked (SAT) arrays between 15 and 75°N. Spectral effects cause variations in measured SHJ module short-circuit current up to 2% and efficiency variation up to 0.3% abs. We further demonstrate that rear-side spectral mismatch factors (SMMs) resulting from including or omitting spectral albedo in PV system modeling vary between ±13%, while total (front+rear) SMMs vary up to 3%, depending on the deployment configuration and latitude. SAT array SMMs are weakly correlated with latitude, while fixed-tilt array SMMs increase with latitude, driven by an increasing proportion of ground-reflected light on the front-side of modules. Ground-reflections can constitute between 2% and 32% of total incident module irradiance, with notably high (>10%) contributions for fixed-tilt arrays at high latitude. Effects of spectral albedo are most significant for: (1) fixed-tilt deployments at high latitudes, (2) wide bandgap technologies such as perovskite and cadmium telluride cells, (3) albedos which vary steeply over the technology's absorption range, and (4) high albedo ground covers. Overall, we demonstrate that omitting spectral albedo effects can result in PV measurement and system-level modeling uncertainties on the order of several percent in these cases.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Steady-state fuel performance analyses for the preliminary fuel concept of general atomics fast modular reactor

Here this manuscript presents the fuel performance analysis results of the General Atomics Fast Modular Reactor (FMR) based on an axi-symmetric (2D-RZ) geometry. Three fuel performance model sets that fit the FMR fuel specifications best, i.e., a BISON baseline model set, a BISON diffusion enhancement model set, and a BISON-FASTGRASS model set, were identified and evaluated against a series of relevant experimental cases featuring high burnup and low irradiation temperature conditions. The three BISON-based model sets were then utilized to conduct a comprehensive fuel performance analysis of the FMR fuel under normal operation including the shutdown/restarting periods for refueling. The evaluation of the fuel performance parameters, represented by temperature, internal pressure, stress, and strain, shows that the FMR fuel maintains its thermal and mechanical integrity during normal operation. Technology gaps and limitations are also discussed to guide future efforts for extending the performance analysis to transient scenarios as well as improving the fuel performance evaluation through experiments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gene-informed decomposition model predicts lower soil carbon loss due to persistent microbial adaptation to warming

Abstract Soil microbial respiration is an important source of uncertainty in projecting future climate and carbon (C) cycle feedbacks. However, its feedbacks to climate warming and underlying microbial mechanisms are still poorly understood. Here we show that the temperature sensitivity of soil microbial respiration ( Q 10 ) in a temperate grassland ecosystem persistently decreases by 12.0 ± 3.7% across 7 years of warming. Also, the shifts of microbial communities play critical roles in regulating thermal adaptation of soil respiration. Incorporating microbial functional gene abundance data into a microbially-enabled ecosystem model significantly improves the modeling performance of soil microbial respiration by 5–19%, and reduces model parametric uncertainty by 55–71%. In addition, modeling analyses show that the microbial thermal adaptation can lead to considerably less heterotrophic respiration (11.6 ± 7.5%), and hence less soil C loss. If such microbially mediated dampening effects occur generally across different spatial and temporal scales, the potential positive feedback of soil microbial respiration in response to climate warming may be less than previously predicted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Performance Understanding and Analysis for Exascale Data Management Workflows (Collaboration)

The general approach of the MONA project is depicted in Figure 1. The figure shows performance monitoring applied to an I/O workflow associated with a scientific simulation, with online measurements captured from this workflow informing methods for workflow reconfiguration and dynamic adjustment. The goal is to maintain suitable levels of Quality of Service for workflow execution, by understanding the underlying causes of workflow performance and behavior. One outcome will be workflow performance models able to characterize realistic workflows. Another outcome will be performance ‘mini-apps’ implementing such workflow behavior. Out of scope for this project are advanced methods for online workflow control.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model Development for Multi-Component Fuel Vaporization and Flash Boiling

The objectives of this project are to improve the multi-component fuel droplet and film vaporization models used in internal combustion engine simulation, and to develop a comprehensive model to predict the characteristics of multi-component flash boiling spray. This work explores two approaches to fuel composition treatment for modeling multi-component fuel vaporization: one based on discretization and surrogates, and the other based on continuous thermodynamic distribution of fuel properties. The experimental data collected for model validation are done under three fuel form factors: droplet, spray, and thin film. The study on sprays also include experimentation under non-flash and flash boiling conditions, a phenomenon that enhances fuel vaporization. The main goals of this work are: Design and develop a multi-component fuel droplet and wall film vaporization model using both discrete and continuous thermodynamics methods. Design and develop an analytical model for multi-component flash boiling. Integrate the multi-component droplet and film model into multi-dimensional engine calculations to predict the fuel vaporization process under engine operation condition. Conduct multi-component droplet and fuel film vaporization experiments in a non-combusting chamber to verify the proposed vaporization models. Characterize flash boiling phenomena of multi-component fuel sprays by optical and laser diagnostic techniques. This report will detail the experimental setup and the numerical basis for developing a model to achieve the main goals listed above. Key features of observed multi-component fuel vaporization will be summarized at the end of each experimental sections, and corresponding model performance evaluation will be presented at the end of each model development section.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Building a DFT+U machine learning interatomic potential for uranium dioxide

Despite uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) being a widely used nuclear fuel, fuel performance models rely extensively on empirical correlations of material behavior, leveraging the historical operating experience of UO 2 . Mechanistic models that consider an atomistic understanding of the processes governing fuel performance (such as fission gas release and creep) will enable a better description of fuel behavior under non-prototypical conditions such as in new reactor concepts or for modified UO 2 fuel compositions. To this end, molecular dynamics simulation is a powerful tool for rapidly predicting physical properties of proposed fuel candidates. However, the reliability of these simulations depends largely on the accuracy of the atomic forces. Traditionally, these forces are computed using either a classical force field (FF) or density functional theory (DFT). While DFT is relatively accurate, the computational cost is burdensome, especially for f-electron elements, such as actinides. By contrast, classical FFs are computationally efficient but are less accurate. For these reasons, we report a new accurate machine learning interatomic potential (MLIP) for UO 2 that provides high-fidelity reproduction of DFT forces at a similar low cost to classical FFs. We employ an active learning approach that autonomously augments the DFT training data set to iteratively refine the MLIP. To further improve the quality of our predictions, we utilize transfer learning to retrain our MLIP to higher-accuracy DFT+U data. We validate our MLIPs by comparing predicted physical properties (e.g., thermal expansion and elastic properties) with those from existing classical FFs and DFT/DFT+U calculations, as well as with experimental data when available.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

PreMevE‐MEO: Predicting Ultra‐Relativistic Electrons Using Observations From GPS Satellites

Abstract Ultra‐relativistic electrons with energies greater than or equal to two megaelectron‐volt (MeV) pose a major radiation threat to spaceborne electronics, and thus specifying those highly energetic electrons has a significant meaning to space weather communities. Here we report the latest progress in developing our predictive model for MeV electrons in the outer radiation belt. The new version, primarily driven by electron measurements made along medium‐Earth‐orbits (MEO), is called PREdictive MEV Electron (PreMevE)‐MEO model that nowcasts ultra‐relativistic electron flux distributions across the whole outer belt. Model inputs include >2 MeV electron fluxes observed in MEOs by a fleet of GPS satellites as well as electrons measured by one Los Alamos satellite in the geosynchronous orbit. We developed an innovative Sparse Multi‐Inputs Latent Ensemble NETwork (SmileNet) which combines convolutional neural networks with transformers, and we used long‐term in situ electron data from NASA's Van Allen Probes mission to train, validate, optimize, and test the model. It is shown that PreMevE‐MEO can provide hourly nowcasts with high model performance efficiency and high correlation with observations. This prototype PreMevE‐MEO model demonstrates the feasibility of making high‐fidelity predictions driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure in MEO, thus has great potential of growing into an invaluable space weather operational warning tool.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of laser beam spatial profiles in a high-energy laser facility by use of deep learning

We adapt the significant advances achieved recently in the field of generative artificial intelligence/machine-learning to laser performance modeling in multipass, high-energy laser systems with application to high-shot-rate facilities relevant to inertial fusion energy. Advantages of neural-network architectures include rapid prediction capability, data-driven processing, and the possibility to implement such architectures within future low-latency, low-power consumption photonic networks. Four models were investigated that differed in their generator loss functions and utilized the U-Net encoder/decoder architecture with either a reconstruction loss alone or combined with an adversarial network loss. We achieved inference times of 1.3 ms for a 256 × 256 pixel near-field beam with errors in predicted energy of the order of 1% over most of the energy range. It is shown that prediction errors are significantly reduced by ensemble averaging the models with different weight initializations. These results suggest that including the temporal dimension in such models may provide accurate, real-time spatiotemporal predictions of laser performance in high-shot-rate laser systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

User's Manual for the FE/NETL Onshore CO 2 EOR Cost Model, Version 1

This user's manual describes the conceptual and mathematical basis for the FE/NETL Onshore CO 2 EOR Cost Model (a Fortran program). The model performs a cash flow analysis to estimate the cost of implementing CO 2 EOR using supercritical CO 2 by incorporating oil field performance outputs for a pattern from the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model (available on NETL's website along with its associated user's manuals under the Collection Name: FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model) and implementing patterns to develop an oil field for CO 2 EOR. The model calculates capital costs, operation and maintenance costs, and financing costs. The user’s manual also describes how to run the FE/NETL Onshore CO 2 EOR Cost Model, along with the model’s file structure, inputs and outputs. The FE/NETL Onshore CO 2 EOR Cost Model is available on NETL's website under the Collection Name: FE/NETL Onshore CO 2 EOR Cost Model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recovering the Star Formation Histories of Recently Quenched Galaxies: The Impact of Model and Prior Choices

Accurate models of the star formation histories (SFHs) of recently quenched galaxies can provide constraints on when and how galaxies shut down their star formation. The recent development of nonparametric SFH models promises the flexibility required to make these measurements. However, model and prior choices significantly affect derived SFHs, particularly for post-starburst galaxies (PSBs), which have sharp changes in their recent SFH. In this paper, we create mock PSBs, then use the Prospector SED fitting software to test how well four different SFH models recover key properties. We find that a two-component parametric model performs well for our simple mock galaxies, but is sensitive to model mismatches. The fixed- and flexible-bin nonparametric models included in Prospector are able to rapidly quench a major burst of star formation, but systematically underestimate the post-burst age by up to 200 Myr. We develop a custom SFH model that allows for additional flexibility in the recent SFH. Our flexible nonparametric model is able to constrain post-burst ages with no significant offset and just ~90 Myr of scatter. Our results suggest that while standard nonparametric models are able to recover first-order quantities of the SFH (mass, SFR, average age), accurately recovering higher-order quantities (burst fraction, quenching time) requires careful consideration of model flexibility. These mock recovery tests are a critical part of future SFH studies. Finally, we show that our new, public SFH model is able to accurately recover the properties of mock star-forming and quiescent galaxies and is suitable for broader use in the SED fitting community. https://github.com/bd-j/prospector

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning models of intermittent operation of RO wellhead water treatment for salinity reduction and nitrate removal

Machine learning models were developed for intermittent multi-mode operation of a wellhead reverse osmosis water purification and desalination system to predict salt passage, nitrate passage, and permeate flux. The models, based on long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture, included an attention mechanism to increase model performance in proximity of the regulatory limit for nitrate. Training and testing of the models for the Startup, Production, Shutdown and Flushing operational modes were based on operational data (consisting of 22 process variables per data sample) acquired every 2–5 s over a six-month period. The significant sets of model input attributes for the different operational modes were assessed via Spearman ranking correlation, Self-Organizing Map (SOM) analysis and feed forward feature selection (FFFS). Although the variability of nitrate passage, salt passage and permeate flux was significant over the four operational modes, prediction performance for the three outcomes were with R2 and Average Absolute Relative Error (AARE) of 0.78–0.95 and 2.96–6.16 %, respectively. Model updates post membrane elements replacement demonstrated similar levels of prediction accuracy. The study results suggest that there is merit in exploring the utility of multi-mode models for sensor fault detection, data imputation, and for potential use in model-predictive control.

Intermittent RO operation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Battery Performance and Cost Model (BatPaC) Version 6.0

SF-26-016 The Battery Performance and Cost model (BatPaC) is a calculation method based on Microsoft Excel spreadsheets that has been developed at Argonne for estimating the performance and manufacturing cost of lithium-ion batteries for electric-drive vehicles including hybrid-electrics (HEV), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and pure electrics. BatPaC was first developed in 2007, was subsequently peer reviewed, and it has served Argonne researchers and the greater battery community in studying the impact of material properties on performance at the pack level. BatPaC has been updated and re-released multiple times since its original public release in 2011. This current version is BatPaC 6.0, which contains additional functionality needed to handle advances in automotive batteries, like the use of lithium metal and silicon anodes and the need to accommodate cell expansion and apply high levels of pressure.

KNEHR, KEVIN [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A↗
DOE OSTI2026

Outdoor Deployment Data for a Four-Terminal GaAs//Si Tandem Solar Mini-Module

This dataset contains the complete outdoor measurement and analysis data for a mechanically stacked, four-terminal (4T) gallium arsenide (GaAs)//silicon (Si) tandem solar mini-module deployed from October 2019 to January 2021 at the Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) in Golden, Colorado, USA. The data support a performance modeling and degradation analysis framework for tandem photovoltaic devices, as described in the accompanying publication. The dataset includes: (1) current–voltage (J–V) characteristics of each sub-cell measured approximately every five minutes, with extracted performance parameters; (2) spectral irradiance from an EKO MS-710 WISER spectroradiometer, along with derived spectral mismatch ratios (SMR) and average photon energy (APE); (3) one-minute resolution meteorological data from the co-located SRRL weather station and GPS-derived precipitable water vapor (PWV); (4) pre-deployment laboratory characterization (external quantum efficiency, J–V curves, standard test conditions parameters); (5) outdoor-extracted temperature and PWV correction coefficients; and (6) PVcircuit equivalent-circuit simulation outputs used for model validation. Degradation rates of −4.1 ± 0.2 %/year (GaAs) and −2.5 ± 0.9 %/year (Si) were determined using a filtering and normalization methodology adapted for fixed-tilt tandem modules. All data are provided in open, portable formats (Apache Parquet, CSV, JSON) to enable full reproducibility of the published analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Battery Performance and Cost Modeling for Electric-Drive Vehicles (A Manual for BatPaC v5.0)

This manual details the fifth version of the Battery Performance and Cost (BatPaC v5.0) model developed at Argonne National Laboratory for lithium-ion battery packs used in transportation (file “BatPaC 5.0 2022-07-22.xlsm”). BatPaC is a publicly available model that performs a bottom-up lithium-ion battery design and cost calculation. The model designs the battery for a specified power, energy, and vehicle type (i.e., hybrid, plug-in hybrid, or full-electric). The cost of the designed battery is calculated by accounting for every step in the lithium-ion battery manufacturing process. The original model and manual were publicly peer-reviewed by battery experts assembled by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This revised model and manual include changes made in response to comments received from users and the observed trajectory of the industry.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

VRN3P: Variational Recurrent Neural Network Based Net-Load Prediction under High Solar Penetration

This is the final technical report for the SETO-funded VRN3P project (PNNL# 76914). The goal of this project, led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Portland General Electric (PGE), was to develop and validate a deep variational recurrent neural network-based net-load prediction (VRN3P) framework for probabilistic time-series forecasting of day-ahead net-load under high solar penetration scenarios. The project team reports successful design of a novel probabilistic net-load forecasting architecture, comprising of a variational autoencoder and a recurrent neural network, which demonstrates 30% improvement in forecast performance, 60% improvement in training time, and consumes 44% less memory, when compared with conventional baseline models. The team tested the VRN3P model performance on GridLAB-D test-cases representing varying BTM solar penetration levels of 20%, 30%, and 50%, with integrated time-series net-load profiles provided by the utility partner (PGE). The VRN3P model demonstrate <2% hourly MAPE (averaged over the year) for day- ahead net-load forecast on the test scenario with 20% BTM solar. Transfer learning extension of the VRN3P model has demonstrated 8.33× speed-up in training, while still achieving acceptable forecast performance of 2.24% hourly MAPE on the 30% BTM solar penetration test-scenario. A preliminary version of the VRN3P GridAPPS-D™has been developed, along with a web-based interactive user-interface (named ‘Forte’) which has made available on GitHub for public use.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data and scripts associated with the manuscript "Encoding Diel Hysteresis and the Birch Effect in Dryland Soil Respiration Models through Knowledge-Guided Deep Learning"

This package contains the data and scripts used in "Encoding Diel Hysteresis and the Birch Effect in Dryland Soil Respiration Models through Knowledge-Guided Deep Learning" (Jiang et al., 2022). The data.zip file contains the flux tower and automated chamber observations used for developing the deep learning model for modeling soil respiration. The scripts.zip file contains the Jupyter notebooks and python scripts for preprocessing the data, training the deep learning models, and postprocessing the results. The src.zip contains the source code for training the deep learning model, performing mutual information analysis, and plotting functions. The trained_models.zip contains multiple folders used for hosting the trained deep-learning models and the associated soil respiration predictions. The whole process is performed using python. We include the REAMD.md to document the python package requirements.Soil respiration in dryland ecosystems is challenging to model due to its complex interactions with environmental drivers. Knowledge-guided deep learning provides a much more effective means of accurately representing these complex interactions than traditional Q10-based models. Mutual information analysis revealed that future soil temperature shares more information with soil respiration than past soil temperature, consistent with their clockwise diel hysteresis. We explicitly encoded diel hysteresis, soil drying, and soil rewetting effects on soil respiration dynamics in a newly designed Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model. The model takes both past and future environmental drivers as inputs to predict soil respiration. The new LSTM model substantially outperformed three Q10-based models and the Community Land Model when reproducing the observed soil respiration dynamics in a semi-arid ecosystem. The new LSTM model clearly demonstrated its superiority for temporally extrapolating soil respiration dynamics, such that the resulting correlation with observational data is up to 0.7 while the correlations of both Q10-based models and the Community Land Model (CLM) are less than 0.4. Our results underscore the high potential for knowledge-guided deep learning to replace Q10-based soil respiration modules in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving the accessibility and transferability of machine learning algorithms for identification of animals in camera trap images: MLWIC2

Motion-activated wildlife cameras (or “camera traps”) are frequently used to remotely and noninvasively observe animals. The vast number of images collected from camera trap projects has prompted some biologists to employ machine learning algorithms to automatically recognize species in these images, or at least filter-out images that do not contain animals. These approaches are often limited by model transferability, as a model trained to recognize species from one location might not work as well for the same species in different locations. Furthermore, these methods often require advanced computational skills, making them inaccessible to many biologists. We used 3 million camera trap images from 18 studies in 10 states across the United States of America to train two deep neural networks, one that recognizes 58 species, the “species model,” and one that determines if an image is empty or if it contains an animal, the “empty-animal model.” Our species model and empty-animal model had accuracies of 96.8% and 97.3%, respectively. Furthermore, the models performed well on some out-of-sample datasets, as the species model had 91% accuracy on species from Canada (accuracy range 36%–91% across all out-of-sample datasets) and the empty-animal model achieved an accuracy of 91%–94% on out-of-sample datasets from different continents. Our software addresses some of the limitations of using machine learning to classify images from camera traps. By including many species from several locations, our species model is potentially applicable to many camera trap studies in North America. We also found that our empty-animal model can facilitate removal of images without animals globally. We provide the trained models in an R package (MLWIC2: Machine Learning for Wildlife Image Classification in R), which contains Shiny Applications that allow scientists with minimal programming experience to use trained models and train new models in six neural network architectures with varying depths.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗