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At least 397 records · Page 22
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DOE OSTI2022

Improving White Dwarfs as Chronometers with Gaia Parallaxes and Spectroscopic Metallicities

White dwarfs (WDs) offer unrealized potential in solving two problems in astrophysics: stellar age accuracy and precision. WD cooling ages can be inferred from surface temperatures and radii, which can be constrained with precision by high-quality photometry and parallaxes. Accurate and precise Gaia parallaxes along with photometric surveys provide information to derive cooling and total ages for vast numbers of WDs. Here we analyze 1372 WDs found in wide binaries with main-sequence (MS) companions and report on the cooling and total age precision attainable in these WD+MS systems. The total age of a WD can be further constrained if its original metallicity is known because the MS lifetime depends on metallicity at fixed mass, yet metallicity is unavailable via spectroscopy of the WD. We show that incorporating spectroscopic metallicity constraints from 38 wide binary MS companions substantially decreases internal uncertainties in WD total ages compared to a uniform constraint. Averaged over the 38 stars in our sample, the total (internal) age uncertainty improves from 21.04% to 16.77% when incorporating the spectroscopic constraint. Higher mass WDs yield better total age precision; for eight WDs with zero-age MS masses ≥2.0 M ⊙ , the mean uncertainty in total ages improves from 8.61% to 4.54% when incorporating spectroscopic metallicities. We find that it is often possible to achieve 5% total age precision for WDs with progenitor masses above 2.0 M ⊙ if parallaxes with ≤1% precision and Pan-STARRS g, r, and i photometry with ≤0.01 mag precision are available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quasars with Proper Motions and the Link to Double and Multiple AGNs

Gaia used a large sample of photometrically selected active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and quasars to remove the residual spin of its global proper motion system in order to achieve a maximally inertial reference frame. A small fraction of these reference objects have statistically significant astrometric proper motions in Gaia EDR3. We compile a source sample of 105,593 high-fidelity AGNs with accurate spectroscopically determined redshifts above 0.5 from the SDSS and normalized proper motions below 4. The rate of genuinely perturbed proper motions is at least 0.17%. A smaller high completeness sample of 152 quasars with excess proper motions at a confidence level of 0.9995 is examined in detail. Pan-STARRS images and Gaia-resolved pairs reveal that 29% of the sample are either double sources or gravitationally lensed quasars. An Anderson–Darling test on parameters of a smaller high-reliability sample and their statistical controls reveals 17 significant factors that favor multiplicity and multi-source structure as the main cause of perturbed astrometry. Using a nearest-neighbor distance statistical analysis and counts of close companions in Gaia on a much larger initial sample of AGNs, an excess of closely separated sources in Gaia is detected. At least 0.33% of all optical quasars are genuinely double or multiply imaged. We provide a list of 44 candidate double or multiple AGNs and four previously known gravitational lenses. Many proper motion quasars may be more closely separated, unresolved doubles exhibiting the variability imposed motion effect, and a smaller fraction may be chance alignments with foreground stars causing weak gravitational lensing.

Astrometric microlensing effect↗
DOE OSTI2022

Perfecting Our Set of Spectrophotometric Standard DA White Dwarfs

We verified for photometric stability a set of DA white dwarfs with Hubble Space Telescope magnitudes from the near-ultraviolet to the near-infrared and ground-based spectroscopy by using time-spaced observations from the Las Cumbres Observatory network of telescopes. The initial list of 38 stars was whittled to 32 final ones, which comprise a high-quality set of spectrophotometric standards. These stars are homogeneously distributed around the sky and are all fainter than r ~ 16.5 mag. Their distribution is such that at least two of them would be available to be observed from any observatory on the ground at any time at airmass less than 2. Light curves and different variability indices from the Las Cumbres Observatory data were used to determine the stability of the candidate standards. When available, Pan-STARRS1, Zwicky Transient Facility, and TESS data were also used to confirm the star classification. Our analysis showed that four DA white dwarfs may exhibit evidence of photometric variability, while a fifth is cooler than our established lower temperature limit, and a sixth star might be a binary. In some instances, due to the presence of faint nearby red sources, care should be used when observing a few of the spectrophotometric standards with ground-based telescopes. Light curves and finding charts for all the stars are provided.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

All-sky Faint DA White Dwarf Spectrophotometric Standards for Astrophysical Observatories: The Complete Sample

Hot DA white dwarfs (DAWDs) have fully radiative pure hydrogen atmospheres that are the least complicated to model. Pulsationally stable, they are fully characterized by their effective temperature T eff and surface gravity log g, which can be deduced from their optical spectra and used in model atmospheres to predict their spectral energy distributions (SEDs). Based on this, three bright DAWDs have defined the spectrophotometric flux scale of the CALSPEC system of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). In this paper we add 32 new fainter (16.5 < V < 19.5) DAWDs spread over the whole sky and within the dynamic range of large telescopes. Using ground-based spectra and panchromatic photometry with HST/WFC3, a new hierarchical analysis process demonstrates consistency between model and observed fluxes above the terrestrial atmosphere to <0.004 mag rms from 2700 to 7750 Å and to 0.008 mag rms at 1.6 μm for the total set of 35 DAWDs. These DAWDs are thus established as spectrophotometric standards with unprecedented accuracy from the near-ultraviolet to the near infrared, suitable for both ground- and space-based observatories. They are embedded in existing surveys like the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, Pan-STARRS, and Gaia, and will be naturally included in the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope survey by the Rubin Observatory. With additional data and analysis to extend the validity of their SEDs further into the infrared, these spectrophotometric standard stars could be used for JWST, as well as for the Roman and Euclid observatories.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Blueprint for the Milky Way’s Stellar Populations. IV. A String of Pearls—the Galactic Starburst Sequence

We continue our series of papers on phase-space distributions of stars in the Milky Way based on photometrically derived metallicities and Gaia astrometry, with a focus on the halo-disk interface in the local volume. To exploit various photometric databases, we develop a method of empirically calibrating synthetic stellar spectra based on a comparison with observations of stellar sequences and individual stars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, the SkyMapper Sky Survey, and the Pan-STARRS1 surveys, overcoming band-specific corrections employed in our previous work. In addition, photometric zero-point corrections are derived to provide an internally consistent photometric system with a spatially uniform metallicity zero-point. Using our phase-space diagrams, we find a remarkably narrow sequence in the rotational velocity (v $\phi$ ) versus metallicity ([Fe/H]) space for a sample of high proper-motion stars (>25 mas yr -1 ), which runs along Gaia Sausage/Enceladus (GSE) and the Splash substructures and is linked to the disk, spanning nearly 2 dex in [Fe/H]. Notably, a rapid increase of v $\phi$ from a nearly zero net rotation to ~180 km s -1 in a narrow metallicity interval (-0.6 ≲ [Fe/H] ≲ -0.4) suggests that some of these stars emerged quickly on a short gas-depletion timescale. Through measurements of a scale height and length, we argue that these stars are distinct from those heated dynamically by mergers. This chain of high proper-motion stars provides additional support for recent discoveries suggesting that a starburst took place when the young Milky Way encountered the gas-rich GSE progenitor, which eventually led to the settling of metal-enriched gas onto the disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Dark Energy Bedrock All-sky Supernova Program: Cross Calibration, Simulations, and Cosmology Forecasts

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have been essential for probing the nature of dark energy; however, most SN analyses rely on the same low-redshift sample, which may lead to shared systematics. In a companion paper, we introduce the Dark Energy Bedrock All-Sky Supernova (DEBASS) program, which has already collected more than 500 low-redshift SNe Ia on the Dark Energy Camera, and present an initial release of 77 SNe Ia within the Dark Energy Survey (DES) footprint observed between 2021 and 2024. Here, we examine the systematics, including photometric calibration and selection effects. We find agreement at the 10 mmag level among the tertiary standard stars of DEBASS, DES, and Pan-STARRS1. Our simulations reproduce the observed distributions of DEBASS SN light-curve properties, and we measure a bias-corrected Hubble residual scatter of 0.08 mag, which, while small, is found in 10% of our simulations. We compare the DEBASS SN distances to the Foundation sample and find consistency with a median residual offset of 0.016 ± 0.019 mag. Selection effects have negligible impacts on distances, but a different photometric calibration solution shifts the median residual −0.015 ± 0.019 mag, highlighting calibration sensitivity. Using conservative simulations, we forecast that replacing historical low-redshift samples with the full DEBASS sample will improve the statistical uncertainties on dark energy parameters w 0 and w a by 30% and 24%, respectively, enhance the dark energy Figure of Merit by up to 60%, and enable a measurement of fσ 8 at the 25% level.

Acevedo, Maria [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United Sta↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Dark Energy Camera Plane Survey 2 (DECaPS2): More Sky, Less Bias, and Better Uncertainties

Abstract Deep optical and near-infrared imaging of the entire Galactic plane is essential for understanding our Galaxy’s stars, gas, and dust. The second data release of the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) Plane Survey extends the five-band optical and near-infrared survey of the southern Galactic plane to cover 6.5% of the sky, ∣ b ∣ ≤ 10°, and 6° > ℓ > −124°, complementary to coverage by Pan-STARRS1. Typical single-exposure effective depths, including crowding effects and other complications, are 23.5, 22.6, 22.1, 21.6, and 20.8 mag in g , r , i , z , and Y bands, respectively, with around 1″ seeing. The survey comprises 3.32 billion objects built from 34 billion detections in 21,400 exposures, totaling 260 hr open shutter time on the DECam at Cerro Tololo. The data reduction pipeline features several improvements, including the addition of synthetic source injection tests to validate photometric solutions across the entire survey footprint. A convenient functional form for the detection bias in the faint limit was derived and leveraged to characterize the photometric pipeline performance. A new postprocessing technique was applied to every detection to debias and improve uncertainty estimates of the flux in the presence of structured backgrounds, specifically targeting nebulosity. The images and source catalogs are publicly available at http://decaps.skymaps.info/ .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Powerful Radio Sources in the Southern Sky. I. Optical Identifications

Since the early sixties, our view of radio galaxies and quasars has been drastically shaped by discoveries made thanks to observations of radio sources listed in the Third Cambridge Catalog and its revised version (3CR). However, the largest fraction of data collected to date on 3CR sources was performed with relatively old instruments, rarely repeated and/or updated. Importantly, the 3CR contains only objects located in the Northern Hemisphere, thus having limited access to new and innovative astronomical facilities. To mitigate these limitations, we present a new catalog of powerful radio sources visible from the Southern Hemisphere, extracted from the GLEAM 4 Jy (G4Jy) catalog and based on equivalent selection criteria as the 3CR. This new catalog, named G4Jy-3CRE, where the E stands for “equivalent,” lists a total of 264 sources at decl. below -5° and with 9 Jy limiting sensitivity at ~178 MHz. We explored archival radio maps obtained with different surveys and compared them with optical images available in the Pan-STARRS, DES, and DSS databases to search for optical counterparts of their radio cores. We compared mid-infrared counterparts, originally associated in the G4Jy, with the optical ones identified here, and we present results of a vast literature search carried out to collect redshift estimates for all G4Jy-3CRE sources resulting in a total of 145 reliable z measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

DESI z ≳ 5 Quasar Survey. I. A First Sample of 400 New Quasars at z ~ 4.7–6.6

We report the first results of a high-redshift (z ≳ 5) quasar survey using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). As a DESI secondary target program, this survey is designed to carry out a systematic search and investigation of quasars at 4.8 < z < 6.8. The target selection is based on the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys (the Legacy Surveys) DR9 photometry, combined with the Pan-STARRS1 data and J-band photometry from public surveys. A first quasar sample has been constructed from the DESI Survey Validation 3 (SV3) and first-year observations until 2022 May. This sample includes more than 400 new quasars at redshift 4.7 ≤ z < 6.6, down to 21.5 magnitude (AB) in the z band, discovered from 35% of the entire target sample. Remarkably, there are 220 new quasars identified at z ≥ 5, more than one-third of existing quasars previously published at this redshift. The observations so far result in an average success rate of 23% at z > 4.7. The current spectral data set has already allowed analysis of interesting individual objects (e.g., quasars with damped Lyα absorbers and broad absorption line features), and statistical analysis will follow the survey's completion. A set of science projects will be carried out leveraging this program, including quasar luminosity function, quasar clustering, intergalactic medium, quasar spectral properties, intervening absorbers, and properties of early supermassive black holes. Additionally, a sample of 38 new quasars at z ~ 3.8–5.7 discovered from a pilot survey in the DESI SV1 is also published in this paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bounds on Velocity-dependent Dark Matter–Proton Scattering from Milky Way Satellite Abundance

We use the latest measurements of the Milky Way satellite population from the Dark Energy Survey and Pan-STARRS1 to infer the most stringent astrophysical bound to date on velocity-dependent interactions between dark matter particles and protons. We model the momentum-transfer cross section as a power law of the relative particle velocity v with a free normalizing amplitude, σ MT = σ 0 v n , to broadly capture the interactions arising within the nonrelativistic effective theory of dark matter–proton scattering. The scattering leads to a momentum and heat transfer between the baryon and dark matter fluids in the early universe, ultimately erasing structure on small physical scales and reducing the abundance of low-mass halos that host dwarf galaxies today. From the consistency of observations with the cold collisionless dark matter paradigm, using a new method that relies on the most robust predictions of the linear perturbation theory, we infer an upper limit on σ0 of 1.4 × 10 -23 , 2.1 × 10 -19 , and 1.0 × 10 -12 cm 2 , for interaction models with n = 2, 4, and 6, respectively, for a dark matter particle mass of 10 MeV. These results improve observational limits on dark matter–proton scattering by orders of magnitude and thus provide an important guide for viable sub-GeV dark matter candidates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reducing Sample Loss in Measurement of Heat of Vaporization of Ethanol/Gasoline Blends by Differential Scanning Calorimetry/Thermogravimetric Analysis

Higher gasoline Heat of Vaporization (HOV) can enable higher compression-ratio direct injection spark ignition engines by providing evaporative cooling that effectively increases fuel knock resistance. Methods to directly measure this fuel property in complex gasoline samples are not well developed. The objective of the present study was to further improve a Differential Scanning Calorimetry/Thermogravimetric Analyzer (DSC/TGA) method to measure the total and partial HOV of gasoline. Ten market gasoline samples were chosen to have a wide range of properties to assess the method's capability across the entire volatility range with an emphasis on understanding how well the method captures the initial 10 percent (%) of sample evaporation and how much sample is left unevaporated at the end of the experiment. Modifications to the sample preparation/introduction method as well as to the instrument itself were made to reduce initial sample losses which included measurements of the HOV at 10 degrees C and 5 degrees C (in a cold chamber) as well as under (uncontrolled) ambient conditions. Experimental results from the DSC/TGA were compared to calculated total HOV results based on Detailed Hydrocarbon Analysis (DHA). Results from the two methods agreed very well with the difference being 5% or less in almost every case. In addition, the repeatability of the method was investigated by analyzing samples in triplicate at the three temperatures investigated. One valuable conclusion from the study was that the lower temperatures of 10 degrees C and 5 degrees C enabled more reproducible measurements for both total and partial HOV. This improved precision may be caused by the fact that temperature control in the cold chamber was more reliable than the ambient laboratory temperature control. Additionally, cold chamber experiments, due to ergonomic limitations, did not allow for the use of a lid on the sample pan. The reproducibility of the evaporation rate was found to be highly dependent on the pan/lid fit which can vary significantly such that elimination of the lid improved measurement precision while operation at sub-ambient temperature slowed the evaporation rate. Results detailing sample preparation and instrument modifications as well as a detailed comparison of total and partial HOV results are presented.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combining Particle Tracking with Electromagnetic Radiation Showers: Merging GPT and Geant4 with Visualization

Field emitted electrons can seriously affect the operation of high-field, high-duty factor electron accelerators. Accelerated field emission can result in high average power beams which can radiation damage beamline components. In addition, localized losses generate thermal hot spots whose outgassing degrades the ultra-high vacuum required in photoinjectors and cryomodules. However, despite their importance, the effects of field emission are rarely included in the design and engineering of electron injectors. This work attempts to remedy this situation by combining two well-known and well-documented programs, GPT and Geant4, to track electrons and their losses in an injector beamline. This paper describes a system of programs which simulates electron paths and losses along the beamline. In addition, the tracking results can be zoomed and panned along and about the beampipe envelope using an open-source 3D CAD program. The scattering albedo calculations of the combined program, GPT-Geant4, are shown to be in good agreement with the literature albedos. The paper concludes with a dark current simulation for the LCLS-II injector from the cathode to the collimator at 1.5 m from the cathode.

Dowell, David H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observations of high-time-resolution and size-resolved aerosol chemical composition and microphysics in the central Arctic: implications for climate-relevant particle properties

Abstract. Aerosols play a critical role in the Arctic's radiative balance, influencing solar radiation and cloud formation. Limited observations in the central Arctic leave gaps in understanding aerosol dynamics year-round, affecting model predictions of climate-relevant aerosol properties. Here, we present the first annual high-time-resolution observations of submicron aerosol chemical composition in the central Arctic during the Arctic Ocean 2018 (AO2018) and the 2019–2020 Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expeditions. Seasonal variations in the aerosol mass concentrations and chemical composition in the central Arctic were found to be driven by typical Arctic seasonal regimes and resemble those of pan-Arctic land-based stations. Organic aerosols dominated the pristine summer, while anthropogenic sulfate prevailed in autumn and spring under haze conditions. Ammonium, which impacts aerosol acidity, was consistently less abundant, relative to sulfate, in the central Arctic compared to lower latitudes of the Arctic. Cyclonic (storm) activity was found to have a significant influence on aerosol variability by enhancing emissions from local sources and the transport of remote aerosol. Local wind-generated particles contributed up to 80 % (20 %) of the cloud condensation nuclei population in autumn (spring). While the analysis presented herein provides the current central Arctic aerosol baseline, which will serve to improve climate model predictions in the region, it also underscores the importance of integrating short-timescale processes, such as seasonal wind-driven aerosol sources from blowing snow and open leads/ocean in model simulations. This is particularly important, given the decline in mid-latitude anthropogenic emissions and the increase in local ones.

Heutte, Benjamin (ORCID:0000000173727460)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Remote-sensing detectability of airborne Arctic dust

Remote-sensing (RS)-based estimates of Arctic dust are oftentimes overestimated due to a failure in separating out the dust contribution from that of spatially homogeneous clouds or low-altitude cloud-like plumes. A variety of illustrations are given with a particular emphasis on questionable claims of using brightness temperature differences (BTDs) as a signature indicator of Arctic dust transported from mid-latitude deserts or generated by local Arctic sources. While there is little dispute about the presence of both Asian and local dust across the Arctic, the direct RS detectability of airborne dust, as ascribed to satellite (MODIS and AVHRR) measurements of significantly negative brightness temperature differences at 11 and 12 µm (BTD 11–12 ), has been misrepresented in certain cases. While it is difficult to account for all examples of strongly negative BTD 11–12 values in the Arctic, it is unlikely that airborne dust plays a significant role. One much more likely contributor would be water clouds in the Arctic inversion layer. The RS detectability of the impact of Arctic dust (notably due to Arctic dust from local sources) can, however, be of significance. Sustained dust deposition can substantially decrease (visible to shortwave IR) snow and ice reflectance albedo (pan-chromatic reflectance) and the signal measured by satellite sensors. Significantly negative BTD 11–12 values would, however, only represent a limited area near the drainage basin sources according to our event-level case studies. The enhanced ice-nucleating particle (INP) role of local Arctic dust can, for example, induce significant changes in the properties of low-level mixed-phase clouds (cloud optical depth changes <~ 1) that can readily be detected by active and passive RS instruments. It is critical that the distinction between the RS detectability of airborne Arctic dust versus the RS detectability of the impacts of that dust be understood if we are to appropriately parameterize, for example, the radiative forcing influence of dust in this climate-sensitive region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of sea ice leads on sea salt aerosols and atmospheric chemistry in the Arctic

Abstract. The processes contributing to Arctic cold-season (November–April) sea salt aerosols (SSAs) remain uncertain. Observations from coastal Alaska suggest that emissions from open leads in sea ice, which are not included in climate models, may play a dominant role. Their Arctic-wide significance has not yet been quantified. Here, we create an emission parameterization of SSAs from leads by combining satellite data of lead area (the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observation System (AMSR-E) product) and a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to quantify pan-Arctic SSA emissions from leads during the cold season from 2002 to 2008 and to predict their impacts on atmospheric chemistry, evaluating the results of our simulated SSAs against in situ observations. The AMSR-E product detects large leads with certainty (> 3 km in size), and, hence, our study is limited to quantifying emissions from large leads. Lead emissions vary seasonally and interannually. Simulated total monthly SSA emissions increase by 1.1 %–1.8 % (≥60° N latitude) and 5.6 %–7.5 % (≥75° N) for the 2002–2008 cold seasons. SSA concentrations primarily increase at the location of leads, where standard model concentrations are low. GEOS-Chem overestimates SSA concentrations at Arctic sites compared to ground observations, even when lead emissions are not included, suggesting underestimation of SSA sinks and/or uncertainties in SSA emissions from blowing snow and the open ocean. Multi-year monthly mean surface bromine atom (Br) concentrations increase by 2.8 %–8.8 % due to SSAs from leads for the 2002–2008 cold seasons. Changes in ozone concentrations are negligible. While leads contribute < 10 % to Arctic-wide SSA emissions in the years 2002–2008, these emissions occur in regions of low background aerosol concentrations. Leads may increase in frequency under future climate change, which could increase SSA emissions from leads.

Emme, Erin J. (ORCID:0000000268406352)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Special Observing Period (SOP) data for the Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP)

The rapid changes occurring in the polar regions require an improved understanding of the processes that are driving these changes. At the same time, increased human activities such as marine navigation, resource exploitation, aviation, commercial fishing, and tourism require reliable and relevant weather information. One of the primary goals of the World Meteorological Organization's Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) project is to improve the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at high latitudes. During YOPP, two Canadian “supersites” were commissioned and equipped with new ground-based instruments for enhanced meteorological and system process observations. Additional pre-existing supersites in Canada, the United States, Norway, Finland, and Russia also provided data from ongoing long-term observing programs. These supersites collected a wealth of observations that are well suited to address YOPP objectives. In order to increase data useability and station interoperability, novel Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs) were created for the seven supersites over two Special Observing Periods (February to March 2018 and July to September 2018). All observations collected at the supersites were compiled into this standardized NetCDF MODF format, simplifying the process of conducting pan-Arctic NWP verification and process evaluation studies. This paper describes the seven Arctic YOPP supersites, their instrumentation, data collection and processing methods, the novel MODF format, and examples of the observations contained therein. MODFs comprise the observational contribution to the model intercomparison effort, termed YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP). All YOPPsiteMIP MODFs are publicly accessible via the YOPP Data Portal (Whitehorse: https://doi.org/10.21343/a33e-j150, Huang et al., 2023a; Iqaluit: https://doi.org/10.21343/yrnf-ck57, Huang et al., 2023b; Sodankylä: https://doi.org/10.21343/m16p-pq17, O'Connor, 2023; Utqiagvik: https://doi.org/10.21343/a2dx-nq55, Akish and Morris, 2023c; Tiksi: https://doi.org/10.21343/5bwn-w881, Akish and Morris, 2023b; Ny-Ålesund: https://doi.org/10.21343/y89m-6393, Holt, 2023; and Eureka: https://doi.org/10.21343/r85j-tc61, Akish and Morris, 2023a), which is hosted by MET Norway, with corresponding output from NWP models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sea ice breakup and freeze-up indicators for users of the Arctic coastal environment

Abstract. The timing of sea ice retreat and advance in Arctic coastal waters varies substantially from year to year. Various activities, ranging from marine transport to the use of sea ice as a platform for industrial activity or winter travel, are affected by variations in the timing of breakup and freeze-up, resulting in a need for indicators to document the regional and temporal variations in coastal areas. The primary objective of this study is to use locally based metrics to construct indicators of breakup and freeze-up in the Arctic and subarctic coastal environment. The indicators developed here are based on daily sea ice concentrations derived from satellite passive-microwave measurements. The “day of year” indicators are designed to optimize value for users while building on past studies characterizing breakup and freeze-up dates in the open pack ice. Relative to indicators for broader adjacent seas, the coastal indicators generally show later breakup at sites known to have landfast ice. The coastal indicators also show earlier freeze-up at some sites in comparison with freeze-up for broader offshore regions, likely tied to earlier freezing of shallow-water regions and areas affected by freshwater input from nearby streams and rivers. A factor analysis performed to synthesize the local indicator variations shows that the local breakup and freeze-up indicators have greater spatial variability than corresponding metrics based on regional ice coverage. However, the trends towards earlier breakup and later freeze-up are unmistakable over the post-1979 period in the synthesized metrics of coastal breakup and freeze-up and the corresponding regional ice coverage. The findings imply that locally defined indicators can serve as key links between pan-Arctic or global indicators such as sea ice extent or volume and local uses of sea ice, with the potential to inform community-scale adaptation and response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming

Abstract. Anthropogenic warming in the Arctic is causing hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw, with implications for flows of water, carbon, and energy from terrestrial biomes to coastal zones. To better understand the likely impacts of these changes, we used a hydrology model driven by meteorological data from atmospheric reanalysis and two global climate models for the period 1980–2100. The hydrology model accounts for soil freeze–thaw processes and was applied across the pan-Arctic drainage basin. The simulations point to greater changes over northernmost areas of the basin underlain by permafrost and to the western Arctic. An acceleration of simulated river discharge over the recent past is commensurate with trends drawn from observations and reported in other studies. Between early-century (2000–2019) and late-century (2080–2099) periods, the model simulations indicate an increase in annual total runoff of 17 %–25 %, while the proportion of runoff emanating from subsurface pathways is projected to increase by 13 %–30 %, with the largest changes noted in summer and autumn and across areas with permafrost. Most notably, runoff contributions to river discharge shift to northern parts of the Arctic Basin that contain greater amounts of soil carbon. Each season sees an increase in subsurface runoff; spring is the only season where surface runoff dominates the rise in total runoff, and summer experiences a decline in total runoff despite an increase in the subsurface component. The greater changes that are seen in areas where permafrost exists support the notion that increased soil thaw is shifting hydrological contributions to more subsurface flow. The manifestations of warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw will impact Arctic terrestrial and coastal environments through altered river flows and the materials they transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗