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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization and response of three TNT equivalent materials in subsurface explosions

Energetic compositions utilized for inducing seismic responses are often referred to in terms of their TNT equivalent, a metric which is often misused because observations of interest are not often understood with respect to explosive characteristics. Here, in this investigation, we characterize three energetic compositions used to elicit seismic responses in a highly instrumented testbed to further our understanding of subsurface TNT equivalence. Three different energetic sources are prepared and studied for their fidelity to thermochemically predicted detonation behavior. We present effects of subsurface detonation on subsurface rock and seismic emission as a function of energetic source material within the testbed. Field experiments were conducted using a single thermochemical yield of 5 kg using diverse sources consisting of nitromethane, ammonal, and PBXN‐5 (an HMX based plastic bonded explosive) mixtures at the Energetic Materials Research and Testing Center in Socorro, New Mexico. Relative performance of energy density‐related detonation parameters, such as detonation velocity and pressure, affect the observed response in the subsurface. Most notable, equal thermochemical yields described in terms of TNT equivalence do not correlate to equal thermochemical effects in the subsurface.

Blue Canyon Dome↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of partially observed epidemics through Bayesian inference: application to COVID-19

We demonstrate a Bayesian method for the "real-time'" characterization and forecasting of partially observed COVID-19 epidemic. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients.The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique. The data used in this study was sourced before the arrival of the second wave of infection in July 2020. The proposed modeling approach, when applied at the country level, generally provides accurate forecasts at the regional, state and country level. The epidemiological model detected the flattening of the curve in California, after public health measures were instituted.The method also detected different disease dynamics when applied to specific region of New Mexico

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Modeling of Brine Migration in a Heated Borehole Test in Bedded Salt

Abstract This research paper focuses on the thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) modeling of brine migration in a heated borehole test conducted as part of the ongoing Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in New Mexico. It is a component of the international collaboration project DECOVALEX-2023 (DEvelopment of COupled models and their VALidation against EXperiments), which aims to understand the THM processes governing brine flow in heated rock salt repositories through collaborative analysis by multiple research teams. Using the TOUGH–FLAC simulator, THM simulations were performed and compared with data from the BATS phase 1a. This experiment involved two identical horizontal-borehole arrays, one heated and one serving as a control, both equipped with sensor arrays. Analysis of measurements revealed water flow rate surges during heater power transitions, with the highest jump observed during cooling. Acoustic emission activity exhibited distinct patterns in response to heater power changes, suggesting that damage to rock salt is particularly pronounced during the cooling phase. The THM simulations successfully captured these phenomena, highlighting the significance of thermal effects, brine migration, and mechanical behavior in predicting brine availability in heated and damaged rock salt. Our modeling also revealed the critical interplay between heating and cooling-induced damage and its influence on flow properties, particularly affecting brine inflow estimation. Notably, we found that cooling-induced brine inflow spikes result from increased permeability due to tensile dilatancy. These findings have important implications for the development of robust containment strategies and enhance our understanding of the complex processes involved in repository performance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting Multi-Wave Epidemics Through Bayesian Inference

We present a simple, near-real-time Bayesian method to infer and forecast a multiwave outbreak, and demonstrate it on the COVID-19 pandemic. The approach uses timely epidemiological data that has been widely available for COVID-19. It provides short-term forecasts of the outbreak’s evolution, which can then be used for medical resource planning. The method postulates one- and multiwave infection models, which are convolved with the incubation-period distribution to yield competing disease models. The disease models’ parameters are estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and information-theoretic criteria are used to select between them for use in forecasting. The method is demonstrated on two- and three-wave COVID-19 outbreaks in California, New Mexico and Florida, as observed during Summer-Winter 2020. We find that the method is robust to noise, provides useful forecasts (along with uncertainty bounds) and that it reliably detected when the initial single-wave COVID-19 outbreaks transformed into successive surges as containment efforts in these states failed by the end of Spring 2020.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities for bioenergy crops to support transitions from irrigated agriculture and conserve the U.S. High Plains Aquifer

This study investigates potential economic and groundwater driven transitions from irrigated maize production—the dominant irrigated cropping system in the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) region—to alternative crops such as sorghum and switchgrass, two common bioenergy feedstocks. Unsustainable groundwater extraction in the U.S. High Plains presents critical challenges including reduced irrigation capacities, diminished crop yields, lower land values, and escalating energy costs. Using a spatially explicit optimization framework combined with comprehensive economic and hydrogeological data, we evaluate optimal land-use strategies and irrigation system investments over a 30-year planning period. Results indicate significant regional variability in the future economic viability of irrigated agriculture, driven by differences in aquifer recharge rates, groundwater availability, and market conditions. Nebraska and parts of northern Texas can sustain irrigated maize profitability due to relatively favorable groundwater conditions and lower land rents, respectively. In contrast, many portions of Kansas and southern Texas are more likely to transition to dryland agriculture within two decades. Colorado and New Mexico show potential for significant adoption of switchgrass production as an alternative biomass-based energy crop. Overall, over the 30-year horizon, our model implies that approximately 23% of currently irrigated maize area across the HPA region may transition to dryland farming under business-as-usual conditions. This transition is complemented by a threefold increase in non-irrigated sorghum production, from 0.20 to 0.77 Mt yr−1, indicating that groundwater-driven shifts in agricultural production may support a larger regional base for bioenergy feedstocks. The study also reveals opportunities for producers to optimize economic returns and biomass production potential.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Environmental evaluation of radioactivity levels and associated radiation hazards in groundwater around the WIPP site

Groundwater may contain radioactive substances which can be dangerous to human health. Concentrations of natural radionuclides polonium (Po), thorium (Th), uranium (U), and radium (Ra) isotopes were measured in groundwater samples collected from different locations in the vicinity of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) site in Carlsbad, New Mexico. The average values of gross activity concentrations of 210 Po, 228 Th, 238 U, 234 U, 226 Ra and 228 Ra isotopes were determined to be 1.62 Bq L -1 in shallow groundwater and 5.88 Bq L -1 in deep groundwater, respectively. The total radioactivity in deep groundwater was higher than that in shallow groundwater, and most of the radioactivity in the water is from 226 Ra. Furthermore, the effective doses for ingestion of natural radionuclides were about 0.333 mSv y–1 for shallow groundwater and about 1.338 mSv y –1 for deep groundwater samples, which are higher than the World Health Organization (WHO, 2017) guideline level (0.1 mSv y –1 ) for drinking water. Ra dominated the total ingestion dose, contributing 93.06 % and 75.40 % of the total effective doses to the deep and shallow groundwater, respectively. The ingrowth and decay of natural radionuclides suggested that 228 Ra/ 226 Ra ratio can be a useful indicator of the source of radioactive contamination. The radioactivity data obtained from the investigated groundwater samples can be used to establish a baseline for radioactivity levels in groundwater around the WIPP site.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Futures for electrochromic windows on high performance houses in arid, cold climates

This study investigates high performance electrochromic windows used on a passive house and residential dwelling to IECC 2021 (i.e., IECC dwelling). In the lab, the electrochromic film switches transmitted solar heat gain coefficient (SHGC) from 0.09 to 0.7 and visible transmittance from 0.15 to 0.82 with power consumption of 1.23 W/m 2 during switching times less than 3 minutes. We extrapolate these results to a window assembly. Building energy models of the houses were evaluated in Santa Fe, New Mexico. A Monte Carlo analysis for 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 was conducted for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5. Cases with and without the electrochromic windows and with and without electricity were used to determine energy use intensity and hours beyond thermal safety thresholds. The passive house showed 1.3-3.1% mean energy savings and the IECC dwelling 4.4-5.1% with electrochromic efficiency benefits growing into the future for both cases. Even so, overall savings decrease into the future for the passive house, due to growth in cooling load being dominant, conversely overall energy savings increase into the future for the IECC dwelling due to heating loads being dominant. For thermal resilience, the passive house exhibited a mean percent decrease of 0.02-0.31% hours in the extreme caution (i.e., > 32.2 °C, ≤ 39.4 °C) range while the IECC dwelling exhibited 0.38-4.38%. The study therefore shows that electrochromic windows will have smaller benefits for the passive house in comparison to the IECC dwelling. The relationship between electrochromic windows is shown to have a complex relationship between house efficiency and climate change by these results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

QUIC-URB and QUIC-fire extension to complex terrain: Development of a terrain-following coordinate system

Ensemble-based approaches to prescribed fire planning cannot be supported by CFD-based models like FIRETEC and WFDS because they are too computationally expensive and cannot leverage LES approaches like CAWFE and WRF-SFIRE because too coarse of resolution. QUIC-Fire was developed to fill this gap but it cannot currently address complex terrain, typical for instance of the Western United States. In this paper, we describe the extension of the diagnostic wind model QUIC-URB, the wind engine of QUIC-Fire, to a terrain-following coordinate system. In particular, the paper presents the mathematical derivation of the wind solver leading to a linear system of equations that are solved through the successive over-relaxation method. The model is validated against a standard test used in previous works (the Askervein Hill) and against a new dataset from measurements in the Socorro Mountains, New Mexico. The terrain-following implementation captured the correct phenomenology for the isolated Askervein Hill, with a wind speed up at the top of the hill. We report the model agreed well with measurements on the upwind side of the peak, but overestimated speed-up on the downwind side of the hill. This is due to the inability of the model to generate flow separation and wake-eddy dynamics. On a common laptop, the divergence-free wind field was obtained in 6 s, making the solver appealing for coupled fire–atmosphere simulations. The Socorro Mountain was highly complex, with many cliff faces, peaks, and valleys. Although the model captures the magnitude and direction of inlet and outlet areas of the domain, it performs rather poorly in the valley region and in the regions near the steep cliffs. Hence, the model shows good agreement with data in areas of open sloped terrain but lacks in areas where flow separation and thermally driven effects may be present (neither effect was addressed in this work). Results highlight that future work should focus on the implementation of parameterizations of wake-eddies, similar to QUIC-URB’s building parameterizations, and on thermodynamic-driven flow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A knowledge gap analysis for transient CHF prediction within RELAP5-3D

Here we compare several experimental pool and flow boiling critical heat flux experiments with corresponding computational models developed with RELAP5-3D. Encompassed within this paper are several sensitivity analyses for the boiling heat transfer correlations, critical heat flux (CHF) prediction within RELAP5-3D and the thermal properties of the cladding for experiments in the Transient Reactor Test Loop (TRTL) and Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facilities. The sensitivity analyses were consistent in determining that there is a large contribution from the critical heat flux multiplier which in this application, accounts for the effects of power transient critical heat flux. Comparison to experimental results of both the TREAT CHF-SERTTA experimental campaign and a University of New Mexico (UNM) pool boiling experimental campaign demonstrate both the under-prediction of transient CHF and nucleate boiling heat transfer. To address the gaps in knowledge regarding the transient heating effect for both boiling heat transfer and CHF prediction, we present an experimental test matrix for the TRTL facility that will isolate the power transient effect under PWR relevant operational conditions. The test matrix will incorporate 6 power pulses with a constant energy deposition and a timescale that spans over several orders of magnitude, including a steady state test with an exponential period of 10 s.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plant versus local soil inorganic ionic composition: The relationship to biomass smoke

Here, we examine the relationship between soil and plant inorganic chemical composition as a precursor to biomass smoke aerosol particle (PM 2.5 ) properties in desert landscapes of the Southwestern United States. Past work underscored the importance of plant species and in particular the dependence of smoke PM 2.5 water uptake on the water-soluble inorganics important in select plant species (e.g., halophytes) versus absent in other species (e.g., conifers). This study extends this work by looking at a range of soil types and salinity in examining native and invasive species in the Desert Southwest US region. Eighteen plant samples and surrounding soils were taken from four ecosystems in New Mexico, USA. Results here support the conclusion that plant species are the primary controller over the inorganic plant composition that is relevant to biomass smoke and controls its hygroscopicity. The role of soil type is secondary to plant inorganic composition but is found to be important on the ecosystem level in determining what plant species are viable in a given ecosystem. This ultimately affects the smoke properties, including PM 2.5 hygroscopicity (water uptake), produced in landscape fires. Knowledge of ecosystem features including plant species distribution and soil salinity may be combined as a first-order predictor of PM 2.5 hygroscopicity of the primary smoke emissions. This can be particularly useful when combined with knowledge of burn characteristics such as flame temperature, which also plays a key role in determining PM 2.5 water uptake response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Seasonality and Declining Intensity of Methane Emissions from the Permian and Nearby US Oil and Gas Basins

We quantify weekly methane emissions and trends from oil and gas production in the US Permian Basin for 2019-2023, and in nearby basins for 2022-2023, by analytical inversion of Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite observations with the Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) at 25 km resolution. Permian oil and gas emissions averaged 4.0 ± 1.1 Tg a-1 over 2019-2023, with large seasonal variation but little interannual variability. Methane intensity fell from 5.2 to 3.2% as production surged. Intensity in the New Mexico Permian fell from 4.5 to 2.1%, approaching the state's 2026 target of <2%. Emissions were on average 50 ± 10% higher in winter than summer, which we corroborate with Permian Basin Tower Network measurements, Insight M aircraft data, and GHGSat satellite observations. This seasonality may be driven in part by higher winter emissions from liquid storage tanks due to decreased separator efficiency in cold conditions. Similar but weaker seasonality along with decreasing emissions and intensities is found in weekly inversions for the Anadarko, Barnett, Eagle Ford, and Haynesville basins in 2022-2023. Our work suggests that better weatherization of oil and gas facilities could significantly reduce methane emissions.

Permian↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatiotemporal Variability in Transport and Reactive Processes Across a First- to Fifth-Order Fluvial Network

Fluvial networks integrate and transport constituents from terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. To date, most research on water quality dynamics has focused on process understanding at individual streams and, as a result, there is a lack of studies analyzing how small-scale, physical and biogeochemical drivers scale across fluvial networks. We performed tracer tests in five stream orders of the Jemez River continuum in New Mexico, USA, to quantify reach-scale hyporheic exchange during two different seasonal periods to address: how do hyporheic zone contributions to riverine processing change with space and time? And does the spatiotemporal variability of hyporheic exchange scale across fluvial networks? Combining conservative (i.e., bromide) and reactive (i.e., resazurin) tracer analyses with solute transport modeling, we found a dominance of reaction-limited transport conditions in space (for all stream orders) and time (two contrasting flow regimes). Moreover, we found a trend toward more reaction-limited conditions with increasing discharge across all stream orders. While our studied fluvial network did not consistently follow the expectations of decreasing hyporheic exchange contributions with increasing stream order, as it has been previously suggested from modeling studies, we found that processing rate coefficients and Damköhler numbers consistently decreased along the continuum with increasing discharge. Our findings suggest that knowledge transferability of hyporheic zone processing along fluvial networks may be possible if the scaling patterns that we found hold true in other catchments. Thus, more research on scaling patterns along fluvial networks is highly needed.

Gootman, Kaylyn S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Human Mobility to Parks Under the COVID-19 Pandemic and Wildfire Seasons in the Western and Central United States

In 2020, people's health suffered a great crisis under the dual effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the extensive, severe wildfires in the western and central United States. Parks, including city, national, and cultural parks, offer a unique opportunity for people to maintain their recreation behaviors following the social distancing protocols during the pandemic. However, massive forest wildfires in western and central US, producing harmful toxic gases and smoke, pose significant threats to human health and affect their recreation behaviors and mobility to parks. In this study, we employed the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) Models to investigate how COVID-19 and wildfires jointly shaped human mobility to parks, regarding the number of visits per capita, dwell time, and travel distance to parks, during June - September 2020. We detected strong correlations between visitations and COVID-19 incidence in southern Montana, western Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah before August. However, the pattern was weakened over time, indicating the decreasing trend of the degree of concern regarding the pandemic. Moreover, more park visits and lower dwell time were found in parks further away from wildfires and less air pollution in Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, and New Mexico, during the wildfire season, suggesting the potential avoidance of wildfires when visiting parks. This study provides important insights on people's responses in recreation and social behaviors when facing multiple severe crises that impact their health and wellbeing, which could support the preparation and mitigation of the health impacts from future pandemics and natural hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pore Pressure Diffusion and Onset of Induced Seismicity

The Raton Basin of Southern Colorado and Northern New Mexico experienced a significant increase in seismicity over the last several decades, including two M5+ earthquakes. The increase in seismicity started soon after an increase in wastewater disposal associated with coal-bed methane production. Twenty-nine wastewater injection wells have operated in the Basin, with several high-rate injectors located within a kilometer of the most seismically active regions. We developed a pore pressure model to investigate the relationship between pore pressure diffusion and onset of induced seismicity, with an emphasis on the Trinidad fault zones. Our model indicates that sufficient pore pressure increase had accumulated on the northern extent of the Trinidad fault zone to induce seismicity at the time of early-stage seismic activity. The hydrogeologic architecture of the Basin played a key role in controlling pore pressure perturbation. The basal sedimentary interval with moderately low diffusivity restricted vertical pore pressure diffusion, creating a substantial lag time between wells becoming active and the expression of perturbation in the fault zones. The spatiotemporal relationship between early-stage seismicity and wastewater injection in conjunction with modeled pore pressures suggests that the early-stage seismicity in the Raton Basin was likely triggered by pore pressure diffusion.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Multiscale Ethane/Methane Observations to Attribute Coal Mine Vent Emissions in the San Juan Basin From 2013 to 2021

Abstract Source attribution of natural gas emissions from fossil fuels in New Mexico's San Juan Basin (SJB) is challenging due to source heterogeneity and emissions transience. We demonstrate that ethane (C 2 H 6 ) to methane (CH 4 ) mixing ratios can identify and separate sources over different scales using various measurement techniques. We report simultaneous CH 4 and C 2 H 6 observations near a coal mine vent and oil and gas (O&G) emission sources using ground‐based in situ measurements in 2020/2021. During these campaigns, we observed a stable coal vent C 2 H 6 :CH 4 ratio of 1.28% ± 0.11%, discernibly different than nearby O&G source ratios ranging from 0.9% to 16.8%. We analyze airborne observations of the SJB taken in 2014/2015 that exhibit similar coal vent ratios and further show the region's heterogeneity. We identify episodic O&G sources, including a gas plant source detected in 2014/2015 that is absent in our 2020/2021 data. We examine total column observations of C 2 H 6 and CH 4 made in 2013 with a solar spectrometer and find a C 2 H 6 :CH 4 ratio of 1.3% ± 0.4% for the coal vent. The stable and unique coal vent ratio relative to other O&G sources in the region is used to demonstrate that consistent attribution is possible using various measurement methods at multiple scales across many years. Finally, we demonstrate that using C 2 H 6 as a proxy for fossil CH 4 inversions can inform detailed basin‐scale inversions, provided we understand source specific changes in the C 2 H 6 :CH 4 ratio like we report in the SJB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spectral Hardness of X- and Gamma-Ray Emissions From Lightning Stepped and Dart Leaders

During the 2022 New Mexico monsoon season, we deployed two X-ray scintillation detectors, coupled with a 180 MHz data acquisition system to detect X-rays from natural lightning at the Langmuir Lab mountain-top facility, located at 3.3 km above mean sea level. Data acquisition was triggered by an electric field antenna calibrated to pick up lightning within a few km of the X-ray detectors. We report the energies of over 240 individual photons, ranging between 13 keV and 3.8 MeV, as registered by the LaBr3(Ce) scintillation detector. These detections were associated with four lightning flashes. Particularly, four-stepped leaders and seven dart leaders produced energetic radiation. Importantly, the reported photon energies allowed us to confirm that the X-ray energy distribution of natural stepped and dart leaders follows a power-law distribution with an exponent ranging between 1.09 and 1.96, with stepped leaders having a harder spectrum. Characterization of the associated leaders and return strokes was done with four different electric field sensing antennas, which can measure a wide range of time scales, from the static storm field to the fast change associated with dart leaders.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Terrestrial Gamma‐Ray Flash Following Intense Negative Return Stroke Observed With BIMAP‐3D

We report ground-based observations of a terrestrial gamma-ray flash (TGF) associated with a strong negative cloud-to-ground lightning strike (-CG) which occurred near Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) in New Mexico, USA. Gamma photons were detected by the Terrestrial High-energy Observations of Radiation (THOR) instrument, developed at the University of California, Santa Cruz, which has been hosted at LANL since 2022. Simultaneous measurements were also made with the 3-Dimensional Broadband Interferometric Mapping and Polarization (BIMAP-3D) system, which includes 3D lightning mapping, two fast antennas, and an additional plastic scintillator. Additional field change waveforms were obtained from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN). The lightning initiated about 1 km above the ground, leading to a powerful -CG with an ENTLN peak current of −237 kA and bipolar field change matching the recently described “energetic compact stroke” (ECS) shape. The TGF was then observed ∼35 µs after the start of the return stroke. We also observe an electric field pulse likely produced by the TGF either in isolation or by coupling to the lightning channel. Based on modeling of the radiated electric field and photon propagation through the atmosphere we infer that the TGF source was on the order of 1⁢0 17 photons. This TGF and associated lightning are extremely similar to some recently reported ECS TGFs in coastal Japan in winter, but we report the first observation of this phenomenon outside of Japan in a different climate, terrain, and season.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Duration of super-emitting oil and gas methane sources

The duration of super-emitting events (>100 kg h -1 ) in oil and gas basins remains insufficiently understood but is key for reporting programs and mitigation strategies. Carbon Mapper conducted aerial surveys from April 30 to May 17, 2024, over the New Mexico Permian Basin, covering 276,000 wells, 1100 compressor stations, 175 gas processing plants, and 27,000 km of pipeline. We find over 500 super-emitting sources with 300 of these sources observed repeatedly across multiple days. We quantify total super emissions by integrating individual events with observationally constrained event durations (5.98 −14.7 Gg CH 4 ) and compare to total emissions derived from basin average snapshots (12.7 ± 0.92 Gg CH 4 ). This gap between emission estimates is reconciled through assumptions on missed detections, characteristic event duration, detection frequency, and diurnal variability. Emission events generally lasted for at least 2 hours, and a small subset of sources (18 total), persistently emitted throughout the entire campaign, representing a near-term opportunity for mitigation. When compared to regional flux estimates derived from independent observations, we estimate super-emitters to contribute approximately 50% (37-73%) towards total emissions. Frequent wide-area monitoring is crucial for capturing rare super-emitter events that, together with other emission sources, drive basin-level variability and emission intensity.

Cusworth, Daniel H. [Carbon Mapper, Pasadena, CA (↗