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DOE OSTI2025

Hourly Electricity Demand Profiles for Each County in the Contiguous United States

This dataset provides estimated hourly electricity demand for each county in the contiguous United States from 2016-2023. The demand profiles represent the sum of two components: (1) Weighted averages of reported hourly demand profiles for North American Electric Reliability Corporation balancing authority (BA) regions and subregions, scaled to match annual estimates of county-level retail sales and direct use of electricity and weighted by the estimated percentage of county load served by each BA region or subregion. (2) Weighted averages of modeled hourly, county- and sector-level distributed photovoltaic (DPV) capacity factor profiles, scaled to match annual estimates of on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity for each county and weighted by the percentage of consumption attributable to each sector Annual county-level retail sales are estimated by aggregating utility-reported sales to the state level and allocating the results to counties according to each county's share of state population. Annual county-level direct use is calculated by aggregating power plant-reported direct use values. Annual county-level on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity is estimated by aggregating utility-reported net metering data to determine the amount of DPV-generated electricity sold back to the grid for each state, subtracting those values from modeled state-level DPV generation estimates, and allocating the results to counties according to each county's share of statewide modeled DPV generation. The open-source Python code used to develop this dataset is available at "Historical Load Data Repository" link below.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Test of Functional Balance Theory for Wetland Biomass Allocation in a Global Change Experiment

Abstract Forecasts of root growth and carbon sequestration under global change are compromised by uncertainty in how plants will allocate biomass between above and belowground pools. Here, we develop a simple model to assess whether functional balance theory can explain a complex biomass allocation response observed in a brackish marsh under experimental warming and elevated CO 2 . Our model shows how treatment‐driven changes in nitrogen supply and demand can explain divergent observations of root growth (i.e., maximum responses under intermediate warming and elevated CO 2 ). The model also reveals a surprising interaction between warming and eutrophication, where enhanced N loading to coastal marshes may reduce adverse impacts of warming on root growth. Our findings provide a mechanistic basis for incorporating biomass allocation into forecast models of marsh evolution. They also provide a general example of using ecological theory to decompose complex net responses observed in multi‐factor global change experiments into constituent processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Relative importance of high-latitude local and long-range-transported dust for Arctic ice-nucleating particles and impacts on Arctic mixed-phase clouds

Dust particles, serving as ice-nucleating particles (INPs), may impact the Arctic surface energy budget and regional climate by modulating the mixed-phase cloud properties and lifetime. In addition to long-range transport from low-latitude deserts, dust particles in the Arctic can originate from local sources. However, the importance of high-latitude dust (HLD) as a source of Arctic INPs (compared to low-latitude dust, LLD) and its effects on Arctic mixed-phase clouds are overlooked. In this study, we evaluate the contribution to Arctic dust loading and INP population from HLD and six LLD source regions by implementing a source-tagging technique for dust aerosols in version 1 of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Our results show that HLD is responsible for 30.7 % of the total dust burden in the Arctic, whereas LLD from Asia and North Africa contributes 44.2 % and 24.2 %, respectively. Due to its limited vertical transport as a result of stable boundary layers, HLD contributes more in the lower troposphere, especially in boreal summer and autumn when the HLD emissions are stronger. LLD from North Africa and East Asia dominates the dust loading in the upper troposphere with peak contributions in boreal spring and winter. The modeled INP concentrations show better agreement with both ground and aircraft INP measurements in the Arctic when including HLD INPs. The HLD INPs are found to induce a net cooling effect (-0.24 W m -2 above 60 °N) on the Arctic surface downwelling radiative flux by changing the cloud phase of the Arctic mixed-phase clouds. The magnitude of this cooling is larger than that induced by North African and East Asian dust (0.08 and -0.06 W m -2 , respectively), mainly due to different seasonalities of HLD and LLD. Uncertainties of this study are discussed, which highlights the importance of further constraining the HLD emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

Temporal and spatial mapping of surface albedo and atmospheric dust opacity on Mars

The Mariner 9 and Viking provided abundant evidence that eolian processes are active over much of the surface of Mars. Past studies have demonstrated that variations in regional albedo and wind-streak patterns are indicative of sediment transport through a region, while thermal inertia data (derived from the Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper (IRTM) dataset) are indicative of the degree of surface mantling by dust deposits. The visual and thermal data are therefore diagnostic of whether net erosion or deposition of dust-storm fallout is taking place currently and whether such processes have been active in a region over the long term. These previous investigations, however, have not attempted to correct for the effects of atmospheric dust loading on observations of the martian surface, so quantitative studies of current sediment transport rates have included large errors due to uncertainty in the magnitude of this 'atmospheric component' of the observations. We have developed a radiative transfer model that allows the atmospheric dust opacity to be determined from IRTM thermal observations. Corrections for the effects of atmospheric dust loading on observations of surface albedo can also be modeled. This approach to determining 'dust-corrected surface albedo' incorporates the atmospheric dust opacity, the single-scattering albedo and particle phase function of atmospheric dust, and the bidirectional reflectance of the surface, and it accounts for variable lighting and viewing geometry.

Lee, S. W.↗

NASA NTRS1995

An Overview of ANN Application in the Power Industry

The paper presents a survey on the development and experience with artificial neural net (ANN) applications for electric power systems, with emphasis on operational systems. The organization and constraints of electric utilities are reviewed, motivations for investigating ANN are identified, and a current assessment is given from the experience of 2400 projects using ANN for load forecasting, alarm processing, fault detection, component fault diagnosis, static and dynamic security analysis, system planning, and operation planning.

artificial neural networks ANN electric power syst↗

NASA NTRS2013

Fracture Analysis of Particulate Reinforced Metal Matrix Composites

A fracture analysis of highly loaded particulate reinforced composites was performed using laser moire interferometry to measure the displacements within the plastic zone at the tip of an advancing crack. Ten castings were made of five different particulate reinforcement-aluminum alloy combinations. Each casting included net-shape specimens which were used for the evaluation of fracture toughness, tensile properties, and flexure properties resulting in an extensive materials properties data. Measured fracture toughness range from 14.1 MPa for an alumina reinforced 356 aluminum alloy to 23.9 MPa for a silicon carbide reinforced 2214 aluminum alloy. For the combination of these K(sub Ic) values and the measured tensile strengths, the compact tension specimens were too thin to yield true plane strain K(sub Ic) values. All materials exhibited brittle behavior characterized by very small tensile ductility suggesting that successful application of these materials requires that the design stresses be below the elastic limit. Probabilistic design principles similar to those used with ceramics are recommended when using these materials. Such principles would include the use of experimentally determined design allowables. In the absence of thorough testing, a design allowable stress of 60 percent of the measured ultimate tensile stress is recommended.

Min, James B.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Low phase noise oscillator using two parallel connected amplifiers

A high frequency oscillator is provided by connecting two amplifier circuits in parallel where each amplifier circuit provides the other amplifier circuit with the conditions necessary for oscillation. The inherent noise present in both amplifier circuits causes the quiescent current, and in turn, the generated frequency, to change. The changes in quiescent current cause the transconductance and the load impedance of each amplifier circuit to vary, and this in turn results in opposing changes in the input susceptance of each amplifier circuit. Because the changes in input susceptance oppose each other, the changes in quiescent current also oppose each other. The net result is that frequency stability is enhanced.

Kleinberg, Leonard L.↗

NASA NTRS1939

Stress Concentration Around an Open Circular Hole in a Plate Subjected to Bending Normal to the Plane of the Plate

An aluminum-alloy plate containing an open circular hole of diameter large compared with the thickness of the plate was subjected to bending forces normal to the plane of the plate. Deflection and strain measurements were taken for two different loads. Stress concentrations occurred at the edge of the hole and the maximum stresses were tangential to the hole at the ends of the transverse diameter. The maximum stress at the edge of the hole was 1.59 times the computed stress on the net section and 1.85 times the computed stress in a solid plate of the same dimensions subjected to the same bending forces. The maximum deflections were about 20 percent greater than the corresponding deflection for a solid plate of the same size subjected to the same bending forces. The smallest edge distance was equal to 2-1/2 times the diameter of the hole and the stress concentration on this side of the hole was the same as on the side where the edge distance was about 4-1/2 diameters. A theoretical analysis of the problem shows that, for an aluminum plate of infinite width, the stress concentration at the edge of the hole would be 1.87 times the stress in a solid plate, which is substantially the same relation obtained for the plate tested.

Dumont, C↗

NASA NTRS1983

Space station needs, attributes and architectural options study review report

A manned space station (SS) produces a significant net economic benefit over its cost, as well as providing substantial social and performance benefits. The largest space station benefits arise from the ability of the SS to warehouse parts, orbit replacement units (ORUs) and fuel and thereby increase the Space Transportation System (STS) load factor. Substantial other benefits are made possibly by the basing of a returnable orbital transfer vehicles (ROTV) and the servicing of geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) satellites at the SS. It is recommended that a manned space station be placed in a 28.5 degree inclination orbit in 1990. This SS can be designed to grow, to be maintained and to incorporate new technology as it becomes available. It should be augmented with unmanned space platforms at both 28.5 degree and polar inclinations. These platforms are designed to have very high commonality with the SS resource models.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1996

Construction of a Piezoresistive Neural Sensor Array

The construction of a piezoresistive - piezoelectric sensor (or actuator) array is proposed using 'neural' connectivity for signal recognition and possible actuation functions. A closer integration of the sensor and decision functions is necessary in order to achieve intrinsic identification within the sensor. A neural sensor is the next logical step in development of truly 'intelligent' arrays. This proposal will integrate 1-3 polymer piezoresistors and MLC electroceramic devices for applications involving acoustic identification. The 'intelligent' piezoresistor -piezoelectric system incorporates printed resistors, composite resistors, and a feedback for the resetting of resistances. A model of a design is proposed in order to simulate electromechanical resistor interactions. The goal of optimizing a sensor geometry for improving device reliability, training, & signal identification capabilities is the goal of this work. At present, studies predict performance of a 'smart' device with a significant control of 'effective' compliance over a narrow pressure range due to a piezoresistor percolation threshold. An interesting possibility may be to use an array of control elements to shift the threshold function in order to change the level of resistance in a neural sensor array for identification, or, actuation applications. The proposed design employs elements of: (1) conductor loaded polymers for a 'fast' RC time constant response; and (2) multilayer ceramics for actuation or sensing and shifting of resistance in the polymer. Other material possibilities also exist using magnetoresistive layered systems for shifting the resistance. It is proposed to use a neural net configuration to test and to help study the possible changes required in the materials design of these devices. Numerical design models utilize electromechanical elements, in conjunction with structural elements in order to simulate piezoresistively controlled actuators and changes in resistance of sensors. The construction of these devices may show significant improvement in ability to interrogate signals and in the control of effective compliance. This work focuses on the development a variety of series/parallel interconnected piezoresistive control elements for the neural sensing function.

Carlson, W. B.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Techno-economic analysis of renewable energy generation at the South Pole

Transitioning from fossil-fuel power generation to renewable energy generation and energy storage in remote locations has the potential to reduce both carbon emissions and cost. Here, this study presents a techno-economic analysis for implementation of a hybrid renewable energy system at the South Pole in Antarctica, which currently hosts several high-energy physics experiments with nontrivial power needs. A tailored model of resource availability and economics for solar photovoltaics, wind turbine generators, lithium-ion energy storage, and long-duration energy storage at this site is explored in different combinations with and without existing diesel energy generation. The Renewable Energy Integration and Optimization (REopt) platform is used to determine the optimal system component sizing and the associated system economics and environmental benefit. We find that the least-cost system includes all three energy generation sources and lithium-ion energy storage. For an example steady-state load of 170 kW, this hybrid system includes 180 kW-DC of photovoltaic panels, 570 kW of wind turbines, and a 3.4 MWh lithium-ion battery energy storage system. This system reduces diesel consumption by 95% compared to an all -diesel configuration, resulting in approximately 1200 metric tons of carbon footprint avoided annually. Over the course of a 15-year analysis period the reduced diesel usage leads to a net savings of 57 million United States dollars, with a time to payback of approximately two years. All the scenarios modeled show that the transition to renewables is highly cost effective under the unique economics and constraints of this extremely remote site.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Utility Costs Savings and Resilience: A Case Study in Port Arthur, Texas

This study evaluates the techno-economic feasibility of integrating solar photovoltaics (PV), battery energy storage systems (BESS), and generators to enhance both cost savings and resilience in critical community facilities in Port Arthur, Texas. Using NREL's REopt model, we analyze four facilities: the Golden Triangle Empowerment Center (GTEC), Lamar State College (LSC), Port Arthur Independent School District (PAISD), and Port Arthur Transit (PAT). A key aspect of the analysis is the incorporation of the Value of Lost Load (VoLL) and microgrid upgrade costs to assess the hidden value of resilience during grid outages. While standalone PV scenarios show moderate cost reductions and a 10-15% decrease in CO2 emissions, the inclusion of resilience measures with BESS and generators significantly increases system costs. However, the hidden value of resilience - quantified through avoided outage costs - leads to a substantial improvement in financial outcomes, resulting in positive Net Present Value (NPV) at many sites. The study demonstrates that resilient solar and storage systems offer both economic and resilience benefits, particularly for underserved communities, by balancing energy savings and enhanced operational continuity during outages.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Increased nitrogen use efficiency in crop production can provide economic and environmental benefits

Potential economic and environmental benefits of increasing nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE) are widely recognized but scarcely quantified. This study quantifies the effects of increased NUE on 1) the national agricultural economy using a simulation model of US agriculture and 2) regional water quality effects using a biogeochemical model for the Arkansas-White-Red river basin. Here, national economic effects are reported for NUE improvement scenarios of 10%, 20%, 50%, and 100%, whereas regional water quality effects are estimated for a 20% NUE improvement scenario in the Arkansas-White-Red river basin. Simulating a 20% increase in NUE in row crops is shown to reduce N requirements by 1.4 million tonnes y-1 and increase farmer net profits by 1.6% ($743 million) per year by 2026 over the baseline simulation for the same period. For each 10% increase in NUE, annual farm revenues for commodity crops increased over the baseline by approximately $350 million per year by 2026. Changes in crop prices and land-use relative to the baseline were less than 2%. This suggests a net benefit even though fertilizer cost savings can result in increased cultivation of land, i.e., ‘Jevon's paradox’. Results from the biogeochemical model of the Arkansas-White-Red river basin suggest that a 20% increase in NUE corresponds to a 5.72% reduction in nitrate loadings to freshwaters, with higher reductions in agricultural watersheds. The value of these reductions was estimated as $43 ha-1, for a total of $15.3 to 136.7 million yr-1 in avoided water treatment costs. After estimating the social value of increased NUE, we conclude with a discussion of potential strategies to increase efficiency and the research needed to achieve this goal. These include perennialization of the agricultural landscape, genetic crop improvement, targeted fertilizer application, and manipulation of the plant-root microbiome.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

RODeO (Revenue Operation and Device Optimization Model) [SWR 20-67]

The Revenue, Operation, and Device Optimization (RODeO) model explores optimal system design and operation considering different levels of grid integration, equipment cost, operating limitations, financing, and credits and incentives. RODeO is a price-taker model formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model in the GAMS modeling platform. The objective is to maximizes the net revenue for a collection of equipment at a given site. The equipment includes generators (e.g., gas turbine, steam turbine, solar, wind, hydro, fuel cells, etc.), storage systems (batteries, pumped hydro, gas-fired compressed air energy storage, long-duration systems, hydrogen), and flexible loads (e.g., electric vehicles, electrolyzers, flexible building loads). The input data required by RODeO can be classified into three bins: 1) utility service data, which refers to retail utility rate information (meter cost, energy and demand charges), 2) electricity market data, which include energy and reserve prices, 3) other inputs, which refer to additional electrical demand, product output demand, technological assumptions, financial properties, and operational parameters.

Guerra Fernandez, Omar Jose↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Space-Conditioning Loads in Commercial Buildings

Space conditioning end-uses, which include heating, cooling, and ventilation, represent a significant fraction of commercial building energy use, with a wide variety of heating and cooling technology options available in the market. In the interest of improving the overall efficiency of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) technologies, governments, utilities and private sector entities have implemented a variety of market transformation policies that aim to influence consumer purchase decisions. To evaluate the costs and benefits of such programs, analysts typically postulate a hypothetical default equipment choice, and compare it to one that provides comparable service with lower energy and/or power use. The corresponding reduced operating cost provides a benefit that offsets the potential higher cost of improved efficiency. Typically, life-cycle cost or cash-flow analyses are used to quantify the net economic benefit. These analyses require the capability to assess how a given equipment design would perform across a broad range of characteristics, both of the building and of the local weather. While these assessments can be performed using customized building simulations, it is generally not practical to develop and validate detailed building simulation code to cover all the potential variations of equipment design and installation. An alternative, and somewhat simpler, approach is to solely use detailed building simulations to generate time series of heating and cooling loads in commercial buildings. These loads can then be used as input to more detailed, stand-alone engineering models that simulate HVAC system performance under different equipment designs. This approach was used to evaluate a range of high-efficiency commercial packaged air conditioner design options for the Department of Energy’s Appliance and Equipment Standards Program (DOE-EERE 2015). While there may be some loss of precision relative to full simulation, the accuracy of this approach is sufficient for practical applications of cost-benefit analysis. This report describes the development of a database of commercial building heating and cooling loads, generated using the EnergyPlus software package, a whole building energy use model supported by the Department of Energy (DOE-EERE 2020a). EnergyPlus takes as input a set of configuration files that describe the building itself (size, zoning, envelope characteristics, etc.) and the various systems within it (HVAC, lighting, water heating, etc.). This analysis uses a publicly available collection of commercial reference buildings (CRB), comprised of sixteen building types and three vintages (DOE-EERE 2020b; Deru et al 2011). Each building is simulated in eighteen different locations, covering a wide range of climatic conditions. The prototype building description files assign the type of HVAC equipment used, and capacities across climate zones.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Carbon emission responsive building control: A case study with an all-electric residential community in a cold climate

In the United States, buildings account for 35% of total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, making them important contributors to decarbonization. Carbon intensities in the power grid are time-varying and can fluctuate significantly within hours, so shifting building loads in response to the carbon intensities can reduce a building’s operational carbon emissions. This paper presents a rule-based carbon responsive control framework that controls the setpoints of thermostatically controlled loads responding to the grid’s carbon emission signals in real time. Based on this framework, four controllers are proposed with different combinations of carbon accounting methods and control rules. To evaluate their performance, we performed simulation studies using models of a 27-home, all-electric, net zero energy residential community located in Basalt, Colorado, United States. The carbon intensity data of four future years from the Cambium data set are adopted to account for the evolving resource mix in the power grid. Various performance metrics, including energy consumption, carbon emission, energy cost, and thermal discomfort, were used to evaluate the performance of the controllers. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to determine how the control thresholds and intervals affect the controllers’ performance. Simulation results indicate that the carbon responsive controllers can reduce the homes’ annual carbon emissions by 6.0% to 20.5%. However, the energy consumption increased by 0.9% to 6.7%, except in one scenario where it decreased by 2.2%. Compared to the baseline, the change in energy cost was between –2.9% and 3.4%, and thermal discomfort was also maintained within an acceptable range. The little impact on energy cost and thermal discomfort indicates there are no potential roadblocks for customer acceptance when rolling out the controllers in utility programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1986

SSME Long-life Bearings

Hybrid hydrostatic/ball bearings for LH2 and LO2 service in turbopumps were studied as a means of improving speed and life capabilities. Four hybrid bearing configurations were designed with emphasis on achieving maximum stiffness and damping. Parallel load bearings were tested at steady-state and transient conditions with LH2 (externally fed) and LN2 (internally fed). The hydrostatic elements were tested with Freon 113 for empirical determination of dynamic characteristics. Tests using an eccentric journal for loading showed the externally and internally fed hydrostatic bearings to have significant separated coefficients of direct stiffness and damping. For the internally fed bearing, the strongly speed-dependent cross-coupling stiffness arising from fluid swirl, along with significant cross-coupling damping, resulted in low net effective stiffness and damping. The test method used can produce separated coefficients with a sufficiently elliptic journal orbit; otherwise, only net effective coefficients combining direct and cross-coupling terms can be determined. Testing with nonsynchronous excitation is recommended to avoid this restriction. Investigation of hard materials, including ceramics, is recommended as a means of eliminating the need for the rolling bearing for startup and shutdown support. The testing was performed in 1984 (LH2), 1985 (LN2) and 1985-86 (Freon).

Butner, M. F.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microgrid Tiered Circuits Effects for a Planned Housing Community in Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico faced a double strike from hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017. The resulting damage required a comprehensive rebuild of electric infrastructure. There are plans and pilot projects to rebuild with microgrids to increase resilience. This paper provides a techno-economic analysis technique and case study of a potential future community in Puerto Rico that combines probabilistic microgrid design analysis with tiered circuits in building energy modeling. Tiered circuits in buildings allow electric load reduction via remote disconnection of non-critical circuits during an emergency. When coupled to a microgrid, tiered circuitry can reduce the chances of a microgrid's storage and generation resources being depleted. The analysis technique is applied to show 1) Approximate cost savings due to a tiered circuit structure and 2) Approximate cost savings gained by simultaneously considering resilience and sustainability constraints in the microgrid optimization. The analysis technique uses a resistive capacitive thermal model with load profiles for four tiers (tier 1-3 and non-critical loads). Three analyses were conducted using: 1) open-source software called Tiered Energy in Buildings and 2) the Microgrid Design Toolkit. For a fossil fuel based microgrid 30% of the total microgrid costs of 1.18 million USD were calculated where the non-tiered case keeps all loads 99.9% available and the tiered case keeps tier 1 at 99.9%, tier 2 at 95%, tier 3 at 80% availability, with no requirement on non-critical loads. The same comparison for a sustainable microgrid showed 8% cost savings on a 5.10 million USD microgrid due to tiered circuits. The results also showed 6-7% cost savings when our analysis technique optimizes sustainability and resilience simultaneously in comparison to doing microgrid resilience analysis and renewables net present value analysis independently. Though highly specific to our case study, similar assessments using our analysis technique can elucidate value of tiered circuits and simultaneous consideration of sustainability and resilience in other locations.

building energy modeling↗