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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Investigating Extreme Events in the NASA GEOS Multiscale Modeling System

Advances in computing capabilities and scientific development have come together to evolve general circulation models into multi-scale Earth system modeling tools. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model is one such example of this evolution. The GEOS model is driven by the finite-volume cubed-sphere (FV3) non-hydrostatic dynamical core. Surrounding FV3 is a scale-aware physics package and data assimilation capability permitting multi-scale application of GEOS for sub-seasonal to seasonal climate prediction, medium range weather prediction, and global mesoscale modeling at convection allowing resolutions. GEOS also includes a comprehensive chemistry package representing a range of capabilities from basic chemistry and interactve aerosols and gaseous species, to carbon emissions and uptake, and complex ozone photochemistry. In this study, we apply the GEOS model to study the fidelity of these processes with increasing horizontal resolution and scale-aware processes in GEOS on extreme events. The GEOS model is run for 40-days beginning in August 2016 at three uniform global resolutions of 13-km (c768), 6-km (c1536) and 3-km (c3072) with 72 vertical levels up to 0.01mb. The model physics use the Grell-Freitas scale-aware convection scheme to dynamically reduce the role of parameterized deep convection as resolved scale processes in the model take over at higher resolutions. We will include high-resolution global emissions and fluxes of aerosols and carbon downscaled from recent satellite observations. We will compare these simulations with reanalyses and observations, focusing on rainfall, clouds and radiative forcing at hourly to monthly timescales. We will closely examine the probability distribution of precipitation intensities and radiative properties of clouds on a daily time scale. In addition, we will focus on extreme events, in particular the diurnal cycle of convection over the US and the frequency and physical nature of organized convection and heavy rain events across the globe.

Putman, William↗
NASA NTRS2017

Review of a Draft - Avoiding the Impossible: Re-focusing a Non-Feasible Mission 2-Hrs into a 3-Day Engineering Session

Concurrent engineering offers a great many benefits to engineers and mission designers throughout the world of aerospace. The only downside of concurrent engineering, and this is somewhat unavoidable, is that you don’t know the results of a design session until the end when it is completed. Usually, this is not a problem – you wouldn’t start building a spacecraft before the design is finished. However, within mass and cost constrained systems, you may end up with a final design that although technically sound – is not feasible due to mass or cost limits. Employing in-session mass and cost models with flexible inputs that refine their estimates and variance as more detailed information comes in throughout a design session allows major design changes to be made when the probability of breaching a mass or cost cap exceeds a threshold level. This enables mission designers to re-focus the study, and avoid spending 3-days with 15 engineers designing a non-feasible mission. By understanding key correlations and nested relationships within mass or cost, and specifically mass or cost allocations per mission element by mission type, it’s possible to get flexible-input, statistically based mass and cost estimates very early in the design process. Baseline models are seeded using mission characteristics and general parameters (outer planetary orbiter-probe mission, $500M cost cap for example) to provide a rough estimate of the expected mass or cost. As information gets solidified during the session, it gets added to the model and the estimates are updated. Continuing the orbiter-probe mission example, modeling probe heat shield cost as a percent of total probe cost, and probe cost as a percent of total flight system cost, and total flight system cost as a percent of total mission cost allows a design team to roll-up solidified information to estimate the probability of fitting within a mass or cost constraint early in a concurrent design session. When only the heat shield cost is known, the variance of the final estimate is higher, whereas when the full probe gets defined, naturally, the variance of the estimate decreases. A methodology, model, verification and demo implementation for cost limit breach are presented.

Hihn, Jairus M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Evolution of Structure in the Intergalactic Medium and the Nature of the LY-Alpha Forest

We have performed a detailed statistical study of the evolution of structure in a photoionized intergalactic medium (IGM) using analytical simulations to extend the calculation into the mildly nonlinear density regime found to prevail at z = 3. Our work is based on a simple fundamental conjecture: that the probability distribution function of the density of baryonic diffuse matter in the universe is described by a lognormal (LN) random field. The LN distribution has several attractive features and follows plausibly from the assumption of initial linear Gaussian density and velocity fluctuations at arbitrarily early times. Starting with a suitably normalized power spectrum of primordial fluctuations in a universe dominated by cold dark matter (CDM), we compute the behavior of the baryonic matter, which moves slowly toward minima in the dark matter potential on scales larger than the Jeans length. We have computed two models that succeed in matching observations. One is a nonstandard CDM model with OMEGA = 1, h = 0.5, and GAMMA = 0.3, and the other is a low-density flat model with a cosmological constant (LCDM), with OMEGA = 0.4, OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) = 0.6, and h = 0.65. In both models, the variance of the density distribution function grows with time, reaching unity at about z = 4, where the simulation yields spectra that closely resemble the Ly-alpha forest absorption seen in the spectra of high-z quasars. The calculations also successfully predict the observed properties of the Ly-alpha forest clouds and their evolution from z = 4 down to at least z = 2, assuming a constant intensity for the metagalactic UV background over this redshift range. However, in our model the forest is not due to discrete clouds, but rather to fluctuations in a continuous intergalactic medium. At z = 3; typical clouds with measured neutral hydrogen column densities N(sub H I) = 10(exp 13.3), 10(exp 13.5), and 10(exp 11.5) /sq cm correspond to fluctuations with mean total densities approximately 10, 1, and 0.1 times the universal mean baryon density. Perhaps surprisingly, fluctuations whose amplitudes are less than or equal to the mean density still appear as "clouds" because in our model more than 70% of the volume of the IGM at z = 3 is filled with gas at densities below the mean value.

Bi, Hongguang↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilizing Earth Observations to Model Probable Coastal Wetland Extent, Sea-Level Rise Inundation Risk, and Assess Impacts on Historic Hawaiian Lands

Climate induced sea-level rise poses a risk to coastal areas on the Island of Hawai’i, and many of the island’s historic cultural lands are in danger of becoming overtaken by wetlands or inundation. In partnership with the County of Hawai’i, State of Hawai’i Department of Land and Natural Resources, and Arizona State University, NASA DEVELOP mapped wetland extent and short-term sea-level rise inundation risk. We utilized Earth observations over a 10-year span (2013 – 2022) that included the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies and MEaSUREs Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature datasets, United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hawaii Digital Elevation Models (DEM), and in situ tidal gauge data. Flood risk index values were acquired for 5 known Hawai’i flood events between 2019 – 2021 from the Global Flood Mapper tool on Google Earth Engine. We used a random forest model to predict short-term sea-level rise inundation risk along the entire coast of Hawai’i. Current wetland extents and probabilistic locations of new wetlands were modeled with the most recently available data from PlanetScope Surface Reflectance optical imagery (2022), USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) 10m DEM (2020), temperature and precipitation data from the Hawai’i Climate Atlas, and soils data from the Hawai’i Soil Atlas (2014) using the Wetland Intrinsic Potential tool. Results indicated locations that had the highest probability of wetland creation. The end products aimed to help the partners prioritize efforts to meeting regulation requirements for wetlands protection, evaluate the inundation risk to historical features, and support decision-making for their Shoreline Setback and Climate Adaption plans.

Lisa Tanh↗
NASA NTRS1982

Mars: Definition and characterization of global surface units with emphasis on composition

Viking 2 approach maps of red and violet normal albedo are used to define units of similar optical properties for a large area of the Martian surface. Computer processing of these data reveals clusters of albedo values relating to specific, contiguous regions of the planet, with some unit boundaries being of a gradational nature while others are more discrete. A study of the albedo properties of analog materials measured in the laboratory, and of telescopic spectrophotometry of Mars, indicates that both hydroxylated and hematitic oxidized materials exist on the surface. The most probable surface expression of global dust and/or high albedo soils is in the classical bright region, Arabia. Most low albedo features in the region studied have red and violet albedos that are consistent with a dark substrate, such as basalt, coated by, or mixed with, a fine grained alteration product.

Mccord, T. B.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and the unidentified infrared emission bands - Auto exhaust along the Milky Way

The unidentified infrared emission features (UIR bands) are attributed to a collection of partially hydrogenated, positively charged polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). This assignment is based on a spectroscopic analysis of the UIR bands. Comparison of the observed interstellar 6.2 and 7.7-micron bands with the laboratory measured Raman spectrum of a collection of carbon-based particulates (auto exhaust) shows a very good agreement, supporting this identification. The infrared emission is due to relaxation from highly vibrationally and electronically excited states. The excitation is probably caused by UV photon absorption. The infrared fluorescence of one particular, highly vibrationally excited PAH (chrysene) is modeled. In this analysis the species is treated as a molecule rather than bulk material and the non-thermodynamic equilibrium nature of the emission is fully taken into account. From a comparison of the observed ratio of the 3.3 to 11.3-micron UIR bands with the model calculations, the average number of carbon atoms per molecule is estimated to be about 20. The abundance of interstellar PAHs is calculated to be about 2 x 10 to the -7th with respect to hydrogen.

Allamandola, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Hypervelocity impact effects on solar cells

One of the space hazards of concern is the problem of natural matter and space debris impacting spacecraft. This phenomena has been studied since the early sixties and a methodology has been established to determine the relative abundance of meteoroids as a function of mass. As the mass decreases, the probability of suffering collisions increases, resulting in a constant bombardment from particles in the sub-micron range. The composition of this 'cosmic dust' is primarily Fe, Ni, Al, Mg, Na, Ca, Cr, H, O, and Mn. In addition to mechanical damage, impact velocities greater than 5 k m/sec can produce shock induced ionization effects with resultant surface charging and complex chemical interactions. The upper limit of the velocity distribution for these particles is on the order of 70 km/sec. The purpose of this work was to subject samples from solar power arrays to debris flux typical of what would be encountered in space, and measure the degradation of the panels after impact.

Rose, M. Frank↗
NASA NTRS1993

Wavelets and spacetime squeeze

It is shown that the wavelet is the natural language for the Lorentz covariant description of localized light waves. A model for covariant superposition is constructed for light waves with different frequencies. It is therefore possible to construct a wave function for light waves carrying a covariant probability interpretation. It is shown that the time-energy uncertainty relation (Delta(t))(Delta(w)) is approximately 1 for light waves is a Lorentz-invariant relation. The connection between photons and localized light waves is examined critically.

Han, D.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Theoretical and Observational Studies of the Central Engines of AGN

In Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) the luminosity is so intense that the effect of radiation pressure on a particle may exceed the gravitational attraction. It was shown that when such luminosities are reached, relatively cold (not completely ionized) thermal matter clouds may form in the central engines of AGN, where most of the luminosity originates. We show that the spectrum of emission from cold clouds embedded in hot relativistic matter is similar to the observed spectrum. We also show that within the hot relativistic matter, cold matter moves faster than the speed of sound or the Alfven speed, and shocks form. The shocks provide a mechanism by which a localized perturbation can propagate throughout the central engine. The shocked matter can emit the observed luminosity, and can explain the flux and spectral variability. It may also provide an efficient mechanism for the outward transfer of angular momentum and provide the outward flow of winds. With observations from X-ray satellites, emission features from the cold and hot matter may be revealed. Our analysis of X-ray data from the Seyfert 1 galaxy MCG - 6-30-15 over five years using detectors on the Ginga and Rosat satellites, revealed some interesting variable features. A source with hot matter emits non-thermal radiation which is Compton reflected from cold matter and then absorbed by warm (partially ionized) absorbing matter in the first model, which can be fit to the data if both the cold and warm absorbers are near the central engine. An alternative model in which the emission from the hot matter is partially covered by very warm matter (in which all elements except Iron are mostly ionized) is also successful. In this model the cold and warm matter may be at distances of up to 100 times the size of the central engine, well within the region where broad optical lines are produced. The flux variability is more naturally explained by the second model. Our results support the existence of cold matter in, or near, the central engine of MCG -6-30-15. Cold matter in the central engine, and evidence of the effects of shocks, is probably forthcoming with future X-ray satellites.

Sivron, Ran↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Principle of Energetic Consistency

A basic result in estimation theory is that the minimum variance estimate of the dynamical state, given the observations, is the conditional mean estimate. This result holds independently of the specifics of any dynamical or observation nonlinearity or stochasticity, requiring only that the probability density function of the state, conditioned on the observations, has two moments. For nonlinear dynamics that conserve a total energy, this general result implies the principle of energetic consistency: if the dynamical variables are taken to be the natural energy variables, then the sum of the total energy of the conditional mean and the trace of the conditional covariance matrix (the total variance) is constant between observations. Ensemble Kalman filtering methods are designed to approximate the evolution of the conditional mean and covariance matrix. For them the principle of energetic consistency holds independently of ensemble size, even with covariance localization. However, full Kalman filter experiments with advection dynamics have shown that a small amount of numerical dissipation can cause a large, state-dependent loss of total variance, to the detriment of filter performance. The principle of energetic consistency offers a simple way to test whether this spurious loss of variance limits ensemble filter performance in full-blown applications. The classical second-moment closure (third-moment discard) equations also satisfy the principle of energetic consistency, independently of the rank of the conditional covariance matrix. Low-rank approximation of these equations offers an energetically consistent, computationally viable alternative to ensemble filtering. Current formulations of long-window, weak-constraint, four-dimensional variational methods are designed to approximate the conditional mode rather than the conditional mean. Thus they neglect the nonlinear bias term in the second-moment closure equation for the conditional mean. The principle of energetic consistency implies that, to precisely the extent that growing modes are important in data assimilation, this term is also important.

Cohn, Stephen E.↗
NASA NTRS2013

LEGEND, a LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris Model

LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model) is a three-dimensional orbital debris evolutionary model that is capable of simulating the historical and future debris populations in the near-Earth environment. The historical component in LEGEND adopts a deterministic approach to mimic the known historical populations. Launched rocket bodies, spacecraft, and mission-related debris (rings, bolts, etc.) are added to the simulated environment. Known historical breakup events are reproduced, and fragments down to 1 mm in size are created. The LEGEND future projection component adopts a Monte Carlo approach and uses an innovative pair-wise collision probability evaluation algorithm to simulate the future breakups and the growth of the debris populations. This algorithm is based on a new "random sampling in time" approach that preserves characteristics of the traditional approach and captures the rapidly changing nature of the orbital debris environment. LEGEND is a Fortran 90-based numerical simulation program. It operates in a UNIX/Linux environment.

Liou, Jer Chyi↗
NASA NTRS2013

Ground Water and Climate Change

As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS1991

Nature and history of the organic compounds in comets - An astrophysical view

The chemical similarities between comets, carbonaceous chondrites, and interstellar molecules and grains are reviewed first. The evolution of frosty interstellar grains is then followed during the collapse of a molecular cloud fragment and the subsequent formation of the Solar System. The paradigm clarifies the probable origin of the two populations of comets of different symmetry (the Oort Cloud and the Kuiper Belt) and implies an exogenous origin for all carbon and water on earth. This origin is explained by the orbital diffusion of planetesimals that is required by the growth of protoplanets.

Delsemme, A. H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Monte-Carlo methods make Dempster-Shafer formalism feasible

One of the main obstacles to the applications of Dempster-Shafer formalism is its computational complexity. If we combine m different pieces of knowledge, then in general case we have to perform up to 2(sup m) computational steps, which for large m is infeasible. For several important cases algorithms with smaller running time were proposed. We prove, however, that if we want to compute the belief bel(Q) in any given query Q, then exponential time is inevitable. It is still inevitable, if we want to compute bel(Q) with given precision epsilon. This restriction corresponds to the natural idea that since initial masses are known only approximately, there is no sense in trying to compute bel(Q) precisely. A further idea is that there is always some doubt in the whole knowledge, so there is always a probability p(sub o) that the expert's knowledge is wrong. In view of that it is sufficient to have an algorithm that gives a correct answer a probability greater than 1-p(sub o). If we use the original Dempster's combination rule, this possibility diminishes the running time, but still leaves the problem infeasible in the general case. We show that for the alternative combination rules proposed by Smets and Yager feasible methods exist. We also show how these methods can be parallelized, and what parallelization model fits this problem best.

Kreinovich, Vladik YA.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Presumed PDF Modeling of Early Flame Propagation in Moderate to Intense Turbulence Environments

The present paper describes the results obtained from a one-dimensional time dependent numerical technique that simulates early flame propagation in a moderate to intense turbulent environment. Attention is focused on the development of a spark-ignited, premixed, lean methane/air mixture with the unsteady spherical flame propagating in homogeneous and isotropic turbulence. A Monte-Carlo particle tracking method, based upon the method of fractional steps, is utilized to simulate the phenomena represented by a probability density function (PDF) transport equation. Gaussian distributions of fluctuating velocity and fuel concentration are prescribed. Attention is focused on three primary parameters that influence the initial flame kernel growth: the detailed ignition system characteristics, the mixture composition, and the nature of the flow field. The computational results of moderate and intense isotropic turbulence suggests that flames within the distributed reaction zone are not as vulnerable, as traditionally believed, to the adverse effects of increased turbulence intensity. It is also shown that the magnitude of the flame front thickness significantly impacts the turbulent consumption flame speed. Flame conditions studied have fuel equivalence ratio s in the range phi = 0.6 to 0.9 at standard temperature and pressure.

Carmen, Christina↗
NASA NTRS2016

Magnetospheric Multiscale Observations of Magnetic Reconnection Associated with Kelvin-Helmholtz Waves

The four Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) spacecraft recorded the first direct evidence of reconnection exhausts associated with Kelvln-Helmholtz (KH) waves at the duskside magnetopause on 8 September 2015 which allows for local mass and energy transport across the flank magnetopause. Pressure anisotropy-weighted Walen analyses confirmed in-plane exhausts across 22 of 42 KH-related trailing magnetopause current sheets (CSs). Twenty-one jets were observed by all spacecraft, with small variations in ion velocity, along the same sunward or antisunward direction with nearly equal probability. One exhaust was only observed by the MMS-1,2 pair, while MMS-3,4 traversed a narrow CS (1.5 ion inertial length) in the vicinity of an electron diffusion region. The exhausts were locally 2-D planar in nature as MMS-1, 2 observed almost identical signatures separated along the guide-field. Asymmetric magnetic and electric Hall fields are reported in agreement with a strong guide-field and a weak plasma density asymmetry across the magnetopause CS.

Eriksson, S.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Boulder tracks and nature of lunar soil.

Boulder tracks from 19 different locations on the Moon, observable in Lunar Orbiter photographs, have been examined. Measurements of the track width indicate that some of the boulders sank considerably deeper than others. It is suggested that lunar surface materials vary from place to place; the state of compaction (density of lunar soil) is probably one of the significant variables. Using bearing capacity theory, modified to be applicable to the rolling boulder problem by theoretical studies and extensive testing, the friction angle of the lunar soil was estimated. Most of the results were between 24 and 47 degrees with an arithmetic average of 37 degrees.

Hovland, H. J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

On the nature of the X-ray pulsar near Lynds 1457

The rotation of a magnetized white dwarf or neutron star accidentally located within or behind the Lynds 1457 molecular cloud, is considered as a model for the hard X-ray source H0253 + 193. It is calculated that all models of this type have a low a priori probability because the positions are so remarkably coincident and because the objects involved are not sufficiently common. A neutron star accreting in a close binary is rejected because its likelihood is extremely small and because the observed position, luminosity, and spectrum of the object are all quite atypical for X-ray binaries. Two other possibilities are considered: (1) an isolated white dwarf or neutron star drifting accidentally into the cloud and accreting sufficient gas to power the X-ray source and (2) a white dwarf accreting in a close binary.

Patterson, J.↗