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NASA NTRS2014

Anisotropic Solar Wind Sputtering of the Lunar Surface Induced by Crustal Magnetic Anomalies

The lunar exosphere is generated by several processes each of which generates neutral distributions with different spatial and temporal variability. Solar wind sputtering of the lunar surface is a major process for many regolith-derived species and typically generates neutral distributions with a cosine dependence on solar zenith angle. Complicating this picture are remanent crustal magnetic anomalies on the lunar surface, which decelerate and partially reflect the solar wind before it strikes the surface. We use Kaguya maps of solar wind reflection efficiencies, Lunar Prospector maps of crustal field strengths, and published neutral sputtering yields to calculate anisotropic solar wind sputtering maps. We feed these maps to a Monte Carlo neutral exospheric model to explore three-dimensional exospheric anisotropies and find that significant anisotropies should be present in the neutral exosphere depending on selenographic location and solar wind conditions. Better understanding of solar wind/crustal anomaly interactions could potentially improve our results.

exosphere↗

NASA NTRS2015

Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.

Koerner, Stephan↗

NASA NTRS2015

Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

Koerner, Stephan↗

NASA NTRS2017

Multimodel Ensemble Methods for Prediction of Wake-Vortex Transport and Decay Originating NASA

Several multimodel ensemble methods are selected and further developed to improve the deterministic and probabilistic prediction skills of individual wake-vortex transport and decay models. The different multimodel ensemble methods are introduced, and their suitability for wake applications is demonstrated. The selected methods include direct ensemble averaging, Bayesian model averaging, and Monte Carlo simulation. The different methodologies are evaluated employing data from wake-vortex field measurement campaigns conducted in the United States and Germany.

Korner, Stephan↗

NASA NTRS2019

Full Inversion of Solar Relativistic Electron Events Measured by the Helios Spacecraft

The Parker Solar Probe and the incoming Solar Orbiter mission will provide measurements of solar energetic particle (SEP) events at close heliocentric distances from the Sun. Up to present, the largest data set of SEP events in the inner heliosphere are the observations by the two Helios spacecraft. Aims.We re-visit a sample of 15 solar relativistic electron events measured by the Helios mission with the goal of better characterizing the injection histories of solar energetic particles and their interplanetary transport conditions at heliocentric distances <1AU. Methods. The measurements provided by the E6 instrument on board Helios provide us with the electron directional distributionsin eight di erent sectors that we use to infer the detailed evolution of the electron pitch-angle distributions. The results of a Monte Carlo interplanetary transport model, combined with a full inversion procedure, were used to fit the observed directional intensities in the 300â€“800 keV nominal energy channel. Unlike previous studies, we have considered both the energy and angular responses of the detector. This method allowed us to infer the electron release time profile at the source and determine the electron interplanetary transport conditions. Results. We discuss the duration of the release time profiles and the values of the radial mean free path, and compare them with thevalues reported previously in the literature using earlier approaches. Five of the events show short injection histories (<30 min) at the Sun and ten events show long-lasting (>30 min) injections. The values of mean free path range from 0.02AU to 0.27AU.Conclusions. The inferred injection histories match with the radio and soft X-ray emissions found in literature.We find no dependence of the radial mean free path on the radial distance. In addition, we find no apparent relation between the strength of interplanetary scattering and the size of the solar particle release.

Pacheco, D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Computational Bayesian Methods Applied to Complex Problems in Bio and Astro Statistics

In this dissertation we apply computational Bayesian methods to three distinct problems. In the first chapter, we address the issue of unrealistic covariance matrices used to estimate collision probabilities. We model covariance matrices with a Bayesian Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, which we fit with Gibbs sampling. In the second chapter, we are interested in determining the sample sizes necessary to achieve a particular interval width and establish non-inferiority in the analysis of prevalences using two fallible tests. To this end, we use a third order asymptotic approximation. In the third chapter, we wish to synthesize evidence across multiple domains in measurements taken longitudinally across time, featuring a substantial amount of structurally missing data, and fit the model with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in a simulation to analyze how estimates of a parameter of interest change across sample sizes.

Elrod, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2018

Optical Performance Prediction of the Thirty Meter Telescope after Initial Alignment Using Optical Modeling

We present an estimate of the optical performance of the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) after execution of the full telescope alignment plan. The TMT alignment is performed by the Global Metrology System (GMS) and the Alignment and Phasing System (APS). The GMS ﬁrst measures the locations of the telescope optics and instruments as a function of elevation angle. These initial measurements will be used to adjust the optics positions and build initial elevation look-up tables. Then the telescope is aligned using starlight as the input for the APS at multiple elevation angles. APS measurements are used to reﬁne the telescope alignment to build elevation and temperature dependent look-up tables. Due to the number of degrees of freedom in the telescope (over 10,000), the ability of the primary mirror to correct aberrations on other optics, the tight optical performance requirements and the multiple instrument locations, it is challenging to develop, test and validate these alignment procedures. In this paper, we consider several GMS and APS operational scenarios. We apply the alignment procedures to the model-generated TMT, which consists of various quasi-static errors such as polishing errors, passive supports errors, thermal and gravity deformations and installation position errors. Using an integrated optical model and Monte-Carlo framework, we evaluate the TMT’s aligned states using optical performance metrics at multiple instrument and ﬁeld of view locations. The optical performance metrics include the Normalized Point Source Sensitivity (PSSN), RMS wavefront error before and after Adaptive Optics (AO) correction, pupil position change, and plate scale distortion.

Rogers, John↗

NASA NTRS2023

Development of the Ames Global Hyperspectral Synthetic Data Set: Surface Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function

This study introduces the Ames Global Hyperspectral Synthetic Data set (AGHSD), in particular the surface bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) product, to support the NASA Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) mission development. The data set is generated based on the corresponding multispectral BRDF products from NASA's MODIS satellite sensor. Based on theories of radiative transfer in vegetation canopies, we derive a simple but robust relationship that indicates that the hyperspectral surface BRDF can be accurately approximated as a weighted sum of the soil surface reflectance, the leaf single albedo, and the canopy scattering coefficient, where the weights or coefficients are spectrally invariant and thus readily estimated from the multispectral MODIS products. We validate the algorithm with simulations by a Monte Carlo Ray Tracing model and find the results highly consistent with the theoretic derivation. Using reflectance spectra of soil and vegetation derived from existing spectral libraries, we apply the algorithm to generate the AGHSD BRDF product at 1 km and 8-day resolutions for the year of 2019. The data set is biogeochemically and biogeophysically coherent and consistent, and serves the goal to support the SBG community in developing sciences and applications for the future global imaging spectroscopy mission.

Hyperspectral Remote Sensing↗

NASA NTRS2016

Construction of Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test (SFDT-2) Vehicle Monte Carlo Splashdown Footprints for Use in Range Safety and Recovery Planning

Overview of Low Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) SFDT-2 ( Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test-2) flight profile; Description of Monte Carlo flight dynamics simulations performed; Modeling and uncertainties; Results with statistical prediction of test vehicle splashdown location; Use of Monte Carlo results for range safety and recovery planning.

Strauss, Bill↗

NASA NTRS1994

Damage Mechanisms and Controlled Crack Propagation in a Hot Pressed Silicon Nitride Ceramic

The subcritical growth of cracks from pre-existing flaws in ceramics can severely affect the structural reliability of a material. The ability to directly observe subcritical crack growth and rigorously analyze its influence on fracture behavior is important for an accurate assessment of material performance. A Mode I fracture specimen and loading method has been developed which permits the observation of stable, subcritical crack extension in monolithic and toughened ceramics. The test specimen and procedure has demonstrated its ability to generate and stably propagate sharp, through-thickness cracks in brittle high modulus materials. Crack growth for an aluminum oxide ceramic was observed to be continuously stable throughout testing. Conversely, the fracture behavior of a silicon nitride ceramic exhibited crack growth as a series of subcritical extensions which are interrupted by dynamic propagation. Dynamic initiation and arrest fracture resistance measurements for the silicon nitride averaged 67 and 48 J/sq m, respectively. The dynamic initiation event was observed to be sudden and explosive. Increments of subcritical crack growth contributed to a 40 percent increase in fracture resistance before dynamic initiation. Subcritical crack growth visibly marked the fracture surface with an increase in surface roughness. Increments of subcritical crack growth loosen ceramic material near the fracture surface and the fracture debris is easily removed by a replication technique. Fracture debris is viewed as evidence that both crack bridging and subsurface microcracking may be some of the mechanisms contributing to the increase in fracture resistance. A Statistical Fracture Mechanics model specifically developed to address subcritical crack growth and fracture reliability is used together with a damaged zone of material at the crack tip to model experimental results. A Monte Carlo simulation of the actual experiments was used to establish a set of modeling input parameters. It was demonstrated that a single critical parameter does not characterize the conditions required for dynamic initiation. Experimental measurements for critical crack lengths, and the energy release rates exhibit significant scatter. The resulting output of the model produces good agreement with both the average values and scatter of experimental measurements.

Calomino, Anthony Martin↗

NASA NTRS1964

Monte Carlo techniques for solving transport problems

The Monte Carlo procedure is a model sampling technique. A model is established, and the behavior of sample units in this model is followed. A sufficient number of sample units are followed to obtain a statistical average or macroscopic quantities, which are the quantities of interest. This technique was used in crude form by Fermi in connection with the building of the first atomic pile. Later, Von Neumann and Ulam developed and used the Monte Carlo procedure extensively in developing the atomic bomb. Since then this technique has gained considerable use in nuclear reactor problems (refs. 1 and 2), and we at the Lewis Research Center have been extending it to thermal radiation (refs. 3 and 4), rarefied gas flows, and plasma flow problems (ref. 5). This technique, which requires a large number of sample histories to obtain solutions with small variances, is receiving greater use because of the development of the high-speed electronic computers.

SAMPLED DATA SYSTEM↗

NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of a High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model’s Simulated Clouds Using Observations from CloudSat, GOES-13 and in Situ Aircraft

This study aimed to assess tropical cloud properties predicted by Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM)modelwhen run with the Milbrandt–Yau double-moment cloud microphysical scheme and one-way nesting that culminated at a (∼300 km)2 inner domain with 0.25 km horizontal grid spacing. The assessment utilized satellite and in situ data collected during the High Ice Water Content (HIWC) and High Altitude Ice Crystals (HAIC) projects for a mesoscale convective system on 16May 2015 over French Guiana.Data fromCloud- Sat’s cloud-profiling radar and GOES-13’s imager were compared to data either simulated directly by GEM or produced by operating on GEM’s cloud data with both the CFMIP (Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) instrument simulator and a three-dimensional Monte Carlo solar radiative transfer model. In situ observations were made from research aircraft – Canada’s National Research Council Convair-580 and the French SAFIRE Falcon-20 – whose flight paths were aligned with CloudSat’s ground-track. Spatial and temporal shifts of clouds simulated by GEM compared well to GOES-13 imagery. There are, however, differences between simulated and observed amounts of high and low cloud. While GEM did well at predicting ranges of ice-water content (IWC) near 11 km altitude (Falcon-20), it produces too much graupel and snow near 7 km (Convair-580). This produced large differences between CloudSat’s and COSP-generated radar reflectivities and two-way attenuations. On the other hand, CloudSat’s inferred values of IWC agree well with in situ samples at both altitudes. Generally, GEM’s visible reflectances exceeded GOES-13’s on account of having produced too much low-level liquid cloud. It is expected that GEM’s disproportioning of cloud hydrometeors will improve once it includes a better representation of secondary ice production.

Qu, Zhipeng↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerothermal Uncertainty Quantification of Deployable Entry Technologies Using Multi-Fidelity Modeling

The objective of this work was to investigate the use of a co-Kriging based multi-fidelity modeling approach with a Monte Carlo uncertainty quantification analyses of surface heating on hypersonic inflatable aerodynamic decelerator vehicles and adaptable, deployable entry placement technology vehicles in Mars entry. A previously developed co-Kriging based multi-fidelity modeling approach was used to model the laminar and turbulent convective and radiative heat fluxes along the vehicle. Monte Carlo analyses of surface heat load for nine different vehicle nose radii was performed for both vehicles, assuming the same thermal protection system is used for both vehicles. The maximum heat loads and heat load uncertainties were found to occur at either the stagnation point or the vehicle shoulder. The maximum 95% confidence intervals for the total heat load for the hypersonic inflatable aerodynamic decelerator vehicle were found to be [-9.27, 7.81] % of the nominal value and [-6.09, 13.1] % of the nominal value for laminar and turbulent flow, respectively. The maximum 95% confidence intervals for the total heat load for the adaptable, deployable entry placement technology vehicle were found to be [-8.85, 7.22] % of the nominal value and [-9.33, 9.35] % of the nominal value for laminar and turbulent flow, respectively. The difference in heating uncertainties based on vehicle geometry between the two vehicle technologies was found to be minimal.

Mario Santos↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Discrete Rotational Energy for Polyatomic Molecules in Direct Simulation Monte Carlo

Accurate prediction of aerothermodynamic loads in thermal non-equilibrium flows requires precise modeling of internal energy exchange. While previous direct simulation Monte Carlo frameworks have successfully implemented discrete rotational energy models for diatomic species, the treatment of polyatomic molecules has traditionally relied on continuous energy assumptions that break down at low temperatures and neglect critical high-temperature corrections. This study extends the discrete rotational energy models of Boyd and Gimelshein to fully encompass polyatomic molecules. The proposed framework implements quantized rotational energy level sampling for linear, spherical, and symmetric/asymmetric top rotors. Crucially, the model incorporates centrifugal distortion to address the limitations of the rigid-rotor assumption at hypersonic temperatures, and accounts for nuclear spin parity, which dictates the permissible rotational states and macroscopic specific heats at low temperatures. The model is verified through equilibrium sampling procedures, demonstrating agreement with theoretical quantum Boltzmann distributions and accurately reproducing thermophysical properties across a wide range of temperatures.

DSMC↗

NASA NTRS1999

Vertical Photon Transport in Cloud Remote Sensing Problems

Photon transport in plane-parallel, vertically inhomogeneous clouds is investigated and applied to cloud remote sensing techniques that use solar reflectance or transmittance measurements for retrieving droplet effective radius. Transport is couched in terms of weighting functions which approximate the relative contribution of individual layers to the overall retrieval. Two vertical weightings are investigated, including one based on the average number of scatterings encountered by reflected and transmitted photons in any given layer. A simpler vertical weighting based on the maximum penetration of reflected photons proves useful for solar reflectance measurements. These weighting functions are highly dependent on droplet absorption and solar/viewing geometry. A superposition technique, using adding/doubling radiative transfer procedures, is derived to accurately determine both weightings, avoiding time consuming Monte Carlo methods. Superposition calculations are made for a variety of geometries and cloud models, and selected results are compared with Monte Carlo calculations. Effective radius retrievals from modeled vertically inhomogeneous liquid water clouds are then made using the standard near-infrared bands, and compared with size estimates based on the proposed weighting functions. Agreement between the two methods is generally within several tenths of a micrometer, much better than expected retrieval accuracy. Though the emphasis is on photon transport in clouds, the derived weightings can be applied to any multiple scattering plane-parallel radiative transfer problem, including arbitrary combinations of cloud, aerosol, and gas layers.

Platnick, S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Calibration of Expensive Models using Efficiently Trained Surrogates

Calibration of computational models in the presence of uncertainty is often cast as a Bayesian inference problem and solved via sampling methods, e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo. When the computational model is expensive, this task becomes intractable due to the large number of samples required to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of the calibration parameters. A popular solution to this problem is to use machine learning to develop a faster-to-evaluate, lower-fidelity substitute for the original model to serve as a surrogate while solving the inference problem. Although considered an offline cost, generating training data to construct this surrogate model can still be an expensive task in practice. An active learning algorithm is presented that focuses training on improving surrogate accuracy specifically in and around the bulk of the posterior distribution, as this is where the model is exercised during calibration. Candidate samples are drawn from families of distributions related to an approximation of the posterior. The sample maximizing predictive variance is then selected for evaluation by the original computational model, yielding a label for the training point. Iterating this approach increases efficiency relative to space filling designs (e.g., Latin hypercube sampling) by avoiding low probability points. Practical considerations are discussed, including the benefits of using a sequential Monte Carlo sampling approach, convergence heuristics, and the importance of both exploration and exploitation given that the true posterior is unknown a priori.

uncertainty quantification↗

NASA NTRS2014

Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

Assessment↗

NASA NTRS1977

Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainty propagation in a stratospheric model. 1: Development of a concise stratospheric model

A concise model has been developed to analyze uncertainties in stratospheric perturbations, yet uses a minimum of computer time and is complete enough to represent the results of more complex models. The steady state model applies iteration to achieve coupling between interacting species. The species are determined from diffusion equations with appropriate sources and sinks. Diurnal effects due to chlorine nitrate formation are accounted for by analytic approximation. The model has been used to evaluate steady state perturbations due to injections of chlorine and NO(X).

Rundel, R. D.↗