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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Fast model-based scenario optimization in NSTX-U enabled by analytic gradient computation

Model-based optimization offers a systematic approach to advanced scenario planning. In this case, the feedforward-control inputs (actuator trajectories) that are needed to attain and sustain a desired scenario are obtained by solving a nonlinear constrained optimization problem. This class of problems generally minimize a cost function that measures the difference between desired and actual plasma states. Several numerical optimization algorithms, such as sequential quadratic programming, require repeated calculation of the cost function gradients with respect to the input trajectories. Calculating these gradients numerically can be computationally intensive, increasing the time needed to solve the feedforward-control optimization problem. Here, this work introduces a method to analytically calculate these cost function gradients from the current profile evolution model. This can significantly reduce the computational time and allow for fast feedforward-control optimization, which would eventually enable optimal scenario planning between discharges. The performance of the feedforward optimizer with analytical gradients is compared to a traditional optimization algorithm based on numerical gradients for different NSTX-U scenarios. The plasma dynamics in the optimization algorithm are simulated using the Control Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM). Results of the work show that analytical gradients consistently reduce the computation time while achieving trajectories that are comparable to those obtained by traditional optimization algorithms based on numerical gradients.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2021

Optimal Experimental Design With Fast Neural Network Surrogate Models

Designing optimal experiments minimizes the uncertainty of results and maximizes the efficient use of resources. Herein, machine learning surrogate models and the approximate coordinate exchange (ACE) algorithm are used to determine optimum experimental designs over large or arbitrarily restrictive design spaces. Optimal experimental design is particularly salient in materials science where experiments are expensive and material properties must often be inferred indirectly. The proposed framework is demonstrated by finding optimal experiments with which the hidden constituent properties of composite materials can be most efficiently inferred from observable experimental outcomes. The optimum experimental design is given by an information-theoretic criteria, which maximizes the conditional mutual information between the hidden properties and the expected experimental outcomes. To perform tractable optimization a neural network is trained as a surrogate model to mimic a physics based simulation, which can calculate the expected experimental outcome based on a candidate experimental design and sampled constituent properties. The ACE algorithm is used to optimize over large design spaces with many tests and controlled parameters where an exhaustive search would be intractable even with the surrogate model. Using this approach, optimal experimental designs that are consistent with those produced by heuristic knowledge and established best practices are found; then optimal designs in larger design spaces where heuristic knowledge is unavailable are examined.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRS1989

Generalized mathematical models in design optimization

The theory of optimality conditions of extremal problems can be extended to problems continuously deformed by an input vector. The connection between the sensitivity, well-posedness, stability and approximation of optimization problems is steadily emerging. The authors believe that the important realization here is that the underlying basis of all such work is still the study of point-to-set maps and of small perturbations, yet what has been identified previously as being just related to solution procedures is now being extended to study modeling itself in its own right. Many important studies related to the theoretical issues of parametric programming and large deformation in nonlinear programming have been reported in the last few years, and the challenge now seems to be in devising effective computational tools for solving these generalized design optimization models.

Papalambros, Panos Y.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing the cooling performance of thermocouples: a power-constrained topology optimization procedure

Abstract Heat pumping through thermoelectric devices has many advantages over traditional cooling. However, their current efficiency is a limiting factor in their implementation. In this paper, we approach the non-convex topology optimization of thermoelectrical elements for cooling applications through the method of moving asymptotes (MMA) to improve their cooling capabilities per watt usage. The optimization problem is defined for a given power budget, aiming for the minimum temperature with a known heat pumping need. The introduction of power as a constraint justifies the introduction of the voltage gradient across the thermocouple as a design variable to maintain the thermoelectrical device in its optimum power-to-heat extraction ratio. To better understand the convergence of this non-convex problem, we present a two-variable analytical thermoelectric optimization model. This example provides information on how to select the penalty parameters used to scale the three material coefficients involved in the problem to obtain lower objective values and better convergence using MMA. The analytical model shows the non-convexity of the problem and provides the recommendation to use penalization coefficients of the form $$p_k=p_{\sigma }>p_{\alpha }=1$$ p k = p σ > p α = 1 for the thermal conductivity, electrical conductivity, and Seebeck coefficients. We tested these penalization coefficients through optimizations of a model based on the 1MC10-031 commercial thermoelectric-cooler (TEC) using the finite element method (FEM). These penalization coefficients provided local minima without the need for volume constraints. With this procedure, we found designs that provided temperatures close to 10 degrees lower using 60% less semiconductor material volume compared to the initial design.

Gutiérrez, G. Reales↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2025

Refinery Integration Analysis: Pathways, Challenges, and Opportunities

Integrating biomass-derived intermediates into traditional petroleum refineries presents unique challenges and opportunities, requiring innovative analysis approaches that account for biofuel producers and refiners. Consequently, teams within the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have developed a comprehensive refinery integration analysis framework that combines experimental data, detailed techno-economic analyses of bio-conversion pathways, and economic projections within refinery linear programming (LP) optimization models. These models enable the identification of promising bio-integration strategies tailored to specific refinery configurations, economic conditions, and production goals. They also capture upstream and downstream impacts, highlighting critical bottlenecks and research opportunities for increasing the share of biogenic feedstocks in traditional refining operations. Refinery models are also packaged into a broader bio-economy optimization framework which enables biofuel supply chain optimization with standalone biofuel production and refinery co-processing/repurposing options. This presentation discusses promising refinery bio-integration strategies along with key challenges and opportunities identified using NREL's refinery and bio-economy optimization frameworks.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1980

Model error estimation for large space systems

In-flight estimation of large structure model errors may have to be carried out in order to detect inevitable deficiencies in large structure controller/estimator models. These error estimates can most efficiently be obtained by the minimization of a quadratic functional of the model errors and on the subsequent analysis of the resulting optimal model error estimates. An integral operator approach to estimation leads to a geometrical interpretation of the model error estimation process. One of the significant insights gained with this interpretation is that the actual but unknown model errors can be decomposed as the sum of two distinct components that are orthogonal in some sense. One of these components is a so-called minimal error vector that retains many of the significant dynamics of the actual errors. The basic ideas in the model error estimation approach are first set forth with a two-dimensional analogy that has most of the essential features of the general estimation problem. The generalized results are then established and their application to a reference large structure model illustrated.

Rodriguez, G.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Inducing Bistability in Collapsible Tubular Masts Booms with Thin-Ply Composite Shells

Bistable rollable booms are favorable when a low strain energy requirement for the coiled state is imposed and have more controllable deployment when compared to monostable booms. An inextensional analytical model describing the bending deformation mechanics of Collapsible Tubular Mast (CTM) booms was used to determine how design variables induce bistability, or the existence of two strain energy wells in the rolled-up and unrolled states. The effects of varying lamina material, laminate layup, and shell arc geometries between different inner and outer shell segments on the second strain energy well and stiffness properties were determined for boom cross-sections formed by circular segments. The full design space for two-walled composite CTM booms was explored to evaluate the validity of the developed analytical model. Optimized CTM boom designs were experimentally characterized for comparisons against model results. The model under-predicted the stable coiled diameter of the co-cured two-walled booms by up to 8.9% and 23.4% for the individual thin shells wrapped alone.

Andrew J Lee↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Human Factors in Dynamic Rideshare Assignment: Willingness-To-Pay for Delay

Dynamic ride-sharing (DRS) has been projected to be a key solution to lowering system-wide congestion. Despite recent developmental progress, demand studies for DRS suggest low levels of willingness for travelers to use such services. The disconnect between DRS system designs and user preferences limits the application impacts of DRS in the real world. Therefore, this paper aims to design a new DRS trip/vehicle assignment strategy by considering the user preferences of choices under different levels of service. In this study, an agent-based simulation approach is used to model a fleet of shared vehicles that allows DRS. An optimization model is developed to match riders to vehicles while accounting for traveler delay and delay acceptance. Travelers are also dynamically issued predictive discounts, catered to their expected willingness to pay, to incentivize them to accept longer trip delays. Results show that the proposed approach can improve system efficiency by increasing average vehicle occupancy by up to 1.0 persons/trip and DRS acceptance by up to 38.9% depending on fleet size. Additionally, congestion is eased through the decrease of empty vehicle miles traveled by up to 7.1%.

Paul, Joseph↗
DOE OSTI2025

Revenue-Maximizing Shared Parking and Electric Vehicle Charging Management in Multi-Unit Dwellings

In urban areas, searching for parking and electric vehicle (EV) charging can result in cruising, congestion, and environmental externalities. Recognizing the business opportunity of offering private parking and charging infrastructure access within multi-unit dwellings (MUDs) during daytime, we model a shared parking and EV charging management system. We maximize the revenue of MUD charging hubs in mixed land use, catering to public demand. Our approach accounts for the objectives of the two stakeholders involved: a demand model is fitted on the choices of EV charging users, and the supply model optimizes the allocation of parking and charging requests in an MUD parking lot. A binary integer linear programming model for the allocation of parking and charging spaces with a rolling horizon is integrated with matching rules that handle both parking and charging requests. In our numerical experiments in a neighborhood of Chicago, Illinois, we estimate the performance of the MUD parking and charging system with metrics that include revenue, number of matchings, and utilization rates. At any given time, MUDs with lower prices attract more charging requests, particularly those of longer duration, resulting in higher revenue and greater charging utilization. Dynamic pricing facilitates a more equitable distribution of requests; as MUD parking lots reach capacity and their fees increase, other MUDs become more competitive, attracting additional requests. Comparing our method against first-come-first-served and optimal-solution benchmarks, we demonstrate our model’s effectiveness in dynamically managing mixed parking and charging demand in MUD charging hubs.

electric vehicle, multi-unit dwelling, charging in↗
DOE OSTI2023

gLaSDI: Parametric physics-informed greedy latent space dynamics identification

A parametric adaptive physics-informed greedy Latent Space Dynamics Identification (gLaSDI) method is proposed for accurate, efficient, and robust data-driven reduced-order modeling of high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems. In the proposed gLaSDI framework, an autoencoder discovers intrinsic nonlinear latent representations of high-dimensional data, while dynamics identification (DI) models capture local latent-space dynamics. Here, an interactive training algorithm is adopted for the autoencoder and local DI models, which enables identification of simple latent-space dynamics and enhances accuracy and efficiency of data-driven reduced-order modeling. To maximize and accelerate the exploration of the parameter space for the optimal model performance, an adaptive greedy sampling algorithm integrated with a physics-informed residual-based error indicator and random-subset evaluation is introduced to search for the optimal training samples on the fly. Further, to exploit local latent-space dynamics captured by the local DI models for an improved modeling accuracy with a minimum number of local DI models in the parameter space, a -nearest neighbor convex interpolation scheme is employed. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated by modeling various nonlinear dynamical problems, including Burgers equations, nonlinear heat conduction, and radial advection. The proposed adaptive greedy sampling outperforms the conventional predefined uniform sampling in terms of accuracy. Compared with the high-fidelity models, gLaSDI achieves 17 to 2,658× speed-up with 1 to 5% relative errors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rolling Optimization of Transmission Network Recovery and Load Restoration Considering Hybrid Wind-Storage System and Cold Load Pickup

A common solution to deal with the stochasticity introduced by fast-ramping wind power integration is to equip wind farms (WFs) with energy storage systems (ESSs) to formulate hybrid WF-ESSs. In addition to leveling off wind power fluctuations during normal operations, a hybrid WF-ESS can be a flexible power source to accumulate the power system restoration. In this paper, we propose a rolling optimization model for transmission network recovery and load restoration considering the contributions of WF-ESSs. The proposed model is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming problem that simultaneously optimizes the amount and location of restorable load blocks as well as the restoration lines. The cold load pickup features of interrupted loads considering the outage duration are modeled in detail. A chance-constrained method is employed to deal with the uncertainty of wind power, and a rolling horizon-based framework is adopted to reduce the influence of forecast error. Case studies are conducted on both New England 39-bus system and part of a provincial power system in China. The results show that the load restoration process can be significantly accelerated by employing the proposed method and contributions of hybrid WF-ESSs to power system restoration are validated.

chance-constrained optimization↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Asset Allocation with Expected Shortfall via Quantum Annealing

Recent advances in quantum hardware offer new approaches to solve various optimization problems that can be computationally expensive when classical algorithms are employed. We propose a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm to solve a dynamic asset allocation problem where a target return and a target risk metric (expected shortfall) are specified. We propose an iterative algorithm that treats the target return as a constraint in a Markowitz portfolio optimization model, and dynamically adjusts the target return to satisfy the targeted expected shortfall. The Markowitz optimization is formulated as a Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) problem. The use of the expected shortfall risk metric enables the modeling of extreme market events. We compare the results from D-Wave’s 2000Q and Advantage quantum annealers using real-world financial data. Both quantum annealers are able to generate portfolios with more than 80% of the return of the classical optimal solutions, while satisfying the expected shortfall. We observe that experiments on assets with higher correlations tend to perform better, which may help to design practical quantum applications in the near term.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1984

The role of optimization in structural model refinement

To evaluate the role that optimization can play in structural model refinement, it is necessary to examine the existing environment for the structural design/structural modification process. The traditional approach to design, analysis, and modification is illustrated. Typically, a cyclical path is followed in evaluating and refining a structural system, with parallel paths existing between the real system and the analytical model of the system. The major failing of the existing approach is the rather weak link of communication between the cycle for the real system and the cycle for the analytical model. Only at the expense of much human effort can data sharing and comparative evaluation be enhanced for the two parallel cycles. Much of the difficulty can be traced to the lack of a user-friendly, rapidly reconfigurable engineering software environment for facilitating data and information exchange. Until this type of software environment becomes readily available to the majority of the engineering community, the role of optimization will not be able to reach its full potential and engineering productivity will continue to suffer. A key issue in current engineering design, analysis, and test is the definition and development of an integrated engineering software support capability. The data and solution flow for this type of integrated engineering analysis/refinement system is shown.

Lehman, L. L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Introduction to Special Section: Machine Learning for Image-based Geologic Interpretation

Image-based geological interpretation has been a labor-intensive and time-consuming process because it requires well-trained geoscientists to identify geological structures, features, and textures from various types of images. These images include scanning electron microscopic images, optical microscopic images, optical photos, resistivity images, seismic volumes, remote-sensing images, etc. With fast-evolving machine learning (ML) technology and computing power in recent decades, computers can achieve nearhuman-level to super-human-level performance with scalable high efficiency in the computer vision field. These technological revolutions facilitated image-based geological interpretation in petroleum exploration and production. For example, a fault picking method applied to 3-D seismic volume data using deep learning can achieve superior performance in comparison to conventional auto-picking methods. In addition, under the new normal of low oil prices, the petroleum industry seeks cost-effective strategies such as automating traditionally labor-intensive processes. Nevertheless, the potential of applying ML to geological image interpretation is still facing a few key challenges including data scarcity, data distribution, poor data and/or label quality, data leakage, learning algorithms, model architecture, training methodologies, testing and evaluation metrics, hyper-parameters optimization, model drift, production deployment, and the like.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benefits of Dual Fuel Heat Pump Grid-responsive Control: A Model-based Control Optimization Approach Using Building and Equipment Co-simulation

Conventional dual fuel heat pumps lack the intelligent control mechanisms to efficiently manage the switch between heat pump and furnace, leading to sub-optimal energy usage and, in some cases, increased operating costs. To resolve this gap, this study applies optimized control on hybrid heat pumps. With a focus on equipment control strategies, we compare the performances of five spacing heating equipment, including a conventional heat pump (HP), a conventional furnace, a dual fuel heat pump (DFHP) with conventional control, a dual fuel heat pump with smart control, and a novel seamlessly fuel flexible heat pump (SFFHP). While DFHP runs on either gas or electricity at any given moment, SFFHP concurrently consumes gas and electricity by continuously optimizing the proportion of each. In this research, a co-simulation framework is developed by integrating a building envelope model with a physics-based heat pump simulation model to analyze the benefits of grid-responsive controls of DFHP and SFFHP. The model-based optimal controls adjust the operation of the heat pump and gas furnace based on utility price signals and marginal grid emission to minimize utility cost and CO 2 emissions for multiple climate zones, different utility tariffs, and marginal grid emission scenarios. Case studies in Chicago and Los Angeles demonstrate that SFFHP and DFHP, with model-based optimal control, can deliver significant reductions in peak demand, utility cost, and CO 2 emission. In Chicago, SFFHP and smart controlled DFHP yield up to 64.7% and 61.7% utility cost reduction and up to 15.7% and 8.5% CO 2 emission reduction compared to the gas furnace. In Los Angeles, SFFHP and smart controlled DFHP achieve up to 43.6% and 40.1% utility cost reduction and up to 13.8% and 14.1% CO2 emission reduction compared to conventional heat pumps. In conclusion, by leveraging the fuel flexibility nature of dual fuel heat pumps, the model-based control optimization approach makes dual fuel heat pump an attractive option for demand response programs.

Control↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Enabled Fusion Technology (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Advancing Scientific Understanding in Fusion Energy and Machine Learning This research represented a significant step forward in machine learning (ML) applications for fusion energy experiments. The project integrated advanced data-driven modeling, optimization techniques, and artificial intelligence to enhance the predictive capabilities and operational efficiency of plasma-based fusion systems. Specifically, tasks focused on ML-enhanced diagnostics, operator guidance tools, and predictive modeling helped improve the ability to interpret complex fusion experiments. Key areas of advancement included: 1) data-driven plasma control, i.e., using ML algorithms to optimize experimental conditions and classify plasma behaviors based on historical data; 2) spectroscopy and diagnostics, i.e., applying AI models to extract previously inaccessible insights from experimental spectroscopy data; and 3) configuration mapping and operator guidance, i.e., developing a predictive framework to assist scientists in identifying the most effective experimental parameters, reducing reliance on manual adjustments. By refining these ML-driven techniques, the project contributed to the broader scientific community’s understanding of plasma dynamics and fusion energy viability. Technical Effectiveness and Economic Feasibility The methods investigated demonstrated high technical effectiveness, as reflected in milestones assessing the predictive accuracy, performance, and optimization of fusion configurations. The development of an Operator Guidance Tool (OGT), for example, led to more precise control of plasma conditions by learning from experimental data and offering real-time adjustments. From an economic standpoint, DeFT provided: 1) the ability to reduce trial-and-error experimentation, which lowered operational costs; 2) improved data interpretation methods, which enabled more efficient resource allocation in large-scale fusion research projects; and 3) the automation of key diagnostic tasks, which reduced manual labor and human error, increasing overall efficiency. 13 The final assessments of predictive models and optimization strategies demonstrated that these approaches were scalable and could be implemented across multiple fusion energy research programs. Public Benefit and Societal Impact This project contributed directly to the broader goal of achieving sustainable and commercially viable fusion energy, which had profound implications for clean energy production and climate change mitigation. The integration of AI-driven solutions into fusion research: 1) sped up scientific discovery, accelerating progress towards achieving energy breakthroughs; 2) reduced the cost of experimentation, making fusion research more accessible; and 3) provided a framework for future AI applications in high-energy physics, benefiting adjacent fields like space exploration, material science, and renewable energy. Additionally, by fostering collaborations between AI researchers and plasma physicists, this project promoted interdisciplinary innovation that could lead to broader applications beyond fusion research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗