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At least 397 records · Page 22

Occurrence of Low-Level Jets over the Eastern U.S. Coastal Zone at Heights Relevant to Wind Energy

Two years of high-resolution simulations conducted with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are used to characterize the frequency, intensity and height of low-level jets (LLJ) over the U.S. Atlantic coastal zone. Meteorological conditions and the occurrence and characteristics of LLJs are described for (i) the centroids of thirteen of the sixteen active offshore wind energy lease areas off the U.S. east coast and (ii) along two transects extending east from the U.S. coastline across the northern lease areas (LA). Flow close to the nominal hub-height of wind turbines is predominantly northwesterly and southwesterly and exhibits pronounced seasonality, with highest wind speeds in November, and lowest wind speeds in June. LLJs diagnosed using vertical profiles of modeled wind speeds from approximately 20 to 530 m above sea level exhibit highest frequency in LA south of Massachusetts, where LLJs are identified in up to 12% of hours in June. LLJs are considerably less frequent further south along the U.S. east coast and outside of the summer season. LLJs frequently occur at heights that intersect the wind turbine rotor plane, and at wind speeds within typical wind turbine operating ranges. LLJs are most frequent, intense and have lowest core heights under strong horizontal temperature gradients and lower planetary boundary layer heights.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Elastic Solutions to 2D Plane Strain Problems: Nonlinear Contact and Settlement Analysis for Shallow Foundations

The classical Neumann boundary value problem of an isotropic, homogeneous elastic half-plane under plane strain conditions is readdressed as the limiting case of the fully three-dimensional problem. Analytical solutions of the stress and strain tensors are obtained by taking the limit from known three-dimensional solutions. It is shown that the displacement fields for the plane strain problem are not well defined. A small number of simple expressions are developed, which provide a general solution for linearly-varying traction over arbitrary regions on the boundary. A simple, efficient, and rapidly convergent algorithm is developed which uses these solutions as analytic elements and provides a solution approach to the general boundary value problem. The method is verified against known solutions for Hertzian contact between parallel cylinders. Two numerical examples are presented for the analysis of shallow foundation systems. In the first, the boundary conditions are informed by analytical elastoplastic calculations and a strain influence analysis is performed and compared with the Schmertmann method. Subsequently, empirical laboratory contact traction distributions measured by Bauer et al., in both the normal and tangential directions are employed as boundary conditions for an analysis of the underlying stress field.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Simulating the Trajectory and Biomass Growth of Free-Floating Macroalgal Cultivation Platforms along the U.S. West Coast

Trajectory tracking and macroalgal growth models were coupled to support a novel macroalgae-harvesting concept known as the Nautical Off-shore Macroalgal Autonomous Device (NOMAD). The NOMAD consists of 5 km long carbon-fiber longlines that are seeded and free float southward along the U.S. West Coast for approximately 3 months before harvesting off the California coast, taking advantage of favorable environmental conditions. The trajectory and macroalgal growth models were applied to answer planning questions pertinent to the techno-economic analysis such as identifying the preferred release location, approximate pathway, timing until harvest, and estimated growth. Trajectories were determined with the General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) model, using 11 years of current and wind data, determining probabilities by running nearly 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations varying the start time and location. An accompanying macroalgal growth model was used to estimate the growth of macroalgae based on the trajectory tracks and environmental forcing products, including light, temperature and nutrients. Model results show that NOMAD lines transit south in the months of April to September due to seasonal currents, taking approximately 3 months to reach Southern California. During transit, NOMAD lines are dispersed but typically avoid beaching or passing through marine sanctuaries. NOMAD lines can yield up to 30 kg wet weight per meter of cultivation line.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Cloud condensation nuclei concentrations derived from the CAMS reanalysis

Determining number concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) is one of the first steps in the chain in analysis of cloud droplet formation, the direct microphysical link between aerosols and cloud droplets, and a process key for aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI). However, due to sparse coverage of in situ measurements and difficulties associated with retrievals from satellites, a global exploration of their magnitude, source as well as temporal and spatial distribution cannot be easily obtained. Thus, a better representation of CCN numbers is one of the goals for quantifying ACI processes and achieving uncertainty-reduced estimates of their associated radiative forcing. Here, we introduce a new CCN dataset which is derived based on aerosol mass mixing ratios from the latest Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis (CAMSRA) in a diagnostic model that uses CAMSRA aerosol properties and a simplified kappa-Köhler framework suitable for global models. The emitted aerosols in CAMSRA are not only based on input from emission inventories using aerosol observations, they also have a strong tie to satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) as this is assimilated as a constraining factor in the reanalysis. Furthermore, the reanalysis interpolates for cases of poor or missing retrievals and thus allows for a full spatiotemporal quantification of CCN numbers. The derived CCN dataset captures the general trend and spatial and temporal distribution of total CCN number concentrations and CCN from different aerosol species. A brief evaluation with ground-based in situ measurements demonstrates the improvement of the modelled CCN over the sole use of AOD as a proxy for CCN as the overall correlation coefficient improved from 0.37 to 0.71. However, we find the modelled CCN from CAMSRA to be generally high biased and find a particular erroneous overestimation at one heavily polluted site which emphasises the need for further validation. The CCN dataset (https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/QUAERERE_CCNCAMS_v1, Block, 2023), which is now freely available to users, features 3-D CCN number concentrations of global coverage for various supersaturations and aerosol species covering the years 2003–2021 with daily frequency. This dataset is one of its kind as it offers lots of opportunities to be used for evaluation in models and in ACI studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Abstract. Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Numerical coupling of aerosol emissions, dry removal, and turbulent mixing in the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1) – Part 1: Dust budget analyses and the impacts of a revised coupling scheme

Abstract. An earlier study evaluating dust life cycle in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1) has revealed that the simulated global mean dust lifetime is substantially shorter when higher vertical resolution is used, primarily due to significant strengthening of dust dry removal in source regions. This paper demonstrates that the sequential splitting of aerosol emissions, dry removal, and turbulent mixing in the model's time integration loop, especially the calculation of dry removal after surface emissions and before turbulent mixing, is the primary reason for the vertical resolution sensitivity reported in that earlier study. Based on this reasoning, we propose a revised numerical process coupling scheme that requires the least amount of code changes, in which the surface emissions are applied before turbulent mixing instead of before dry removal. The revised scheme allows newly emitted particles to be transported aloft by turbulence before being removed from the atmosphere, and hence better resembles the dust life cycle in the real world. Sensitivity experiments show that the revised process coupling substantially weakens dry removal and strengthens vertical mixing in dust source regions. It also strengthens the large-scale transport from source to non-source regions, strengthens dry removal outside the source regions, and strengthens wet removal and activation globally. In transient simulations of the years 2000–2009 conducted using 1∘ horizontal grid spacing, 72 vertical layers, and unchanged tuning parameters of emission strength, the revised process coupling leads to a 40 % increase in the global total dust burden and an increase of dust lifetime from 1.8 to 2.5 d in terms of 10-year averages. Weakened dry removal and increased mixing ratios are also seen for other aerosol species that have substantial surface emissions, although the changes in mixing ratio are considerably smaller for the submicron species than for dust and sea salt. Numerical experiments confirm that the revised coupling scheme significantly reduces the strong and non-physical sensitivities of model results to vertical resolution in the original EAMv1. This provides a motivation for adopting the revised scheme in EAM as well as for further improvements on the simple revision presented in this paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

LIGHT-bgcArgo-1.0: using synthetic float capabilities in E3SMv2 to assess spatiotemporal variability in ocean physics and biogeochemistry

Since their advent over 2 decades ago, autonomous Argo floats have revolutionized the field of oceanography, and, more recently, the addition of biogeochemical and biological sensors to these floats has greatly improved our understanding of carbon, nutrient, and oxygen cycling in the ocean. While Argo floats offer unprecedented horizontal, vertical, and temporal coverage of the global ocean, uncertainties remain about whether Argo sampling frequency and density capture the true spatiotemporal variability in physical, biogeochemical, and biological properties. As the true distributions of, e.g., temperature or oxygen are unknown, these uncertainties remain difficult to address with Argo floats alone. Numerical models with synthetic observing systems offer one potential avenue to address these uncertainties. Here, we implement synthetic biogeochemical Argo floats into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2), which build on the Lagrangian In Situ Global High-Performance Particle Tracking (LIGHT) module in E3SMv2 (E3SMv2-LIGHT-bgcArgo-1.0). Since the synthetic floats sample the model fields at model run time, the end user defines the sampling protocol ahead of any model simulation, including the number and distribution of synthetic floats to be deployed, their sampling frequency, and the prognostic or diagnostic model fields to be sampled. Using a 6-year proof-of-concept simulation, we illustrate the utility of the synthetic floats in different case studies. In particular, we quantify the impact of (i) sampling density on the float-derived detection of deep-ocean change in temperature or oxygen and on float-derived estimates of phytoplankton phenology, (ii) sampling frequency and sea-ice cover on float trajectory lengths and hence float-derived estimates of current velocities, and (iii) short-term variability in ecosystem stressors on estimates of their seasonal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Refactoring the elastic–viscous–plastic solver from the sea ice model CICE v6.5.1 for improved performance

This study focuses on the performance of the elastic–viscous–plastic (EVP) dynamical solver within the sea ice model, CICE v6.5.1. The study has been conducted in two steps. First, the standard EVP solver was extracted from CICE for experiments with refactored versions, which are used for performance testing. Second, one refactored version was integrated and tested in the full CICE model to demonstrate that the new algorithms do not significantly impact the physical results. The study reveals two dominant bottlenecks, namely (1) the number of Message Parsing Interface (MPI) and Open Multi-Processing (OpenMP) synchronization points required for halo exchanges during each time step combined with the irregular domain of active sea ice points and (2) the lack of single-instruction, multiple-data (SIMD) code generation. The standard EVP solver has been refactored based on two generic patterns. The first pattern exposes how general finite differences on masked multi-dimensional arrays can be expressed in order to produce significantly better code generation by changing the memory access pattern from random access to direct access. The second pattern takes an alternative approach to handle static grid properties. The measured single-core performance improvement is more than a factor of 5 compared to the standard implementation. The refactored implementation of strong scales on the Intel® Xeon® Scalable Processors series node until the available bandwidth of the node is used. For the Intel® Xeon® CPU Max series, there is sufficient bandwidth to allow the strong scaling to continue for all the cores on the node, resulting in a single-node improvement factor of 35 over the standard implementation. This study also demonstrates improved performance on GPU processors.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A stochastic covariance shrinkage approach to particle rejuvenation in the ensemble transform particle filter

Rejuvenation in particle filters is necessary to prevent the collapse of the weights when the number of particles is insufficient to properly sample the high-probability regions of the state space. Rejuvenation is often implemented in a heuristic manner by the addition of random noise that widens the support of the ensemble. This work aims at improving canonical rejuvenation methodology by the introduction of additional prior information obtained from climatological samples; the dynamical particles used for importance sampling are augmented with samples obtained from stochastic covariance shrinkage. A localized variant of the proposed method is developed. Numerical experiments with the Lorenz '63 model show that modified filters significantly improve the analyses for low dynamical ensemble sizes. Furthermore, localization experiments with the Lorenz '96 model show that the proposed methodology is extendable to larger systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A novel transformation of the ice sheet Stokes equations and some of its properties and applications

We introduce a novel transformation of the Stokes equations into a form closely resembling the shallow Blatter–Pattyn equations. The two forms differ by only a few additional terms, while their variational formulations differ only by a single term in each horizontal direction. Specifically, the variational formulation of the Blatter–Pattyn model drops the vertical velocity in the second invariant of the strain rate tensor. Here we make use of the new transformation in two ways. First, we consider incorporating the transformed equations into a code that can be very easily converted from a Stokes to a Blatter–Pattyn model, and vice versa, by switching these terms on or off. This may be generalized so that the Stokes model is switched on adaptively only where the Blatter–Pattyn model loses accuracy. Second, the key role played by the vertical velocity in the Blatter–Pattyn approximation motivates new approximations. Two examples are presented. These require a mesh that enables the discrete continuity equation to be invertible for the vertical velocity in terms of the horizontal velocity components. Examples of such meshes, such as the first-order P1–E0 mesh and the second-order P2–E1 mesh, are given in both 2D and 3D. However, the transformed Stokes model has the same type of gravity forcing as the Blatter–Pattyn model, determined by the ice surface slope, thereby forgoing some of the mesh generality of the traditional formulation of the Stokes model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

WRF-simulated low-level jets over Iowa: characterization and sensitivity studies

Abstract. Output from 6 months of high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are analyzed to characterize local low-level jets (LLJs) over Iowa for winter and spring in the contemporary climate. Low-level jets affect rotor plane aerodynamic loading, turbine structural loading and turbine performance, and thus accurate characterization and identification are pertinent. Analyses using a detection algorithm wherein the wind speed above and below the jet maximum must be below 80 % of the jet wind speed within a vertical window of approximately 20–530 m a.g.l. (above ground level) indicate the presence of an LLJ in at least one of the 14 700 4 km×4 km grid cells over Iowa on 98 % of nights. Nocturnal LLJs are most frequently associated with stable stratification and low turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and hence are more frequent during the winter months. The spatiotemporal mean LLJ maximum (jet core) wind speed is 9.55 m s−1, and the mean height is 182 m. Locations of high LLJ frequency and duration across the state are seasonally varying, with a mean duration of 3.5 h. The highest frequency occurs in the topographically complex northwest of the state in winter and in the flatter northeast of the state in spring. Sensitivity of LLJ characteristics to the (i) LLJ definition and (ii) vertical resolution at which the WRF output is sampled is examined. LLJ definitions commonly used in the literature are considered in the first sensitivity analysis. These sensitivity analyses indicate that LLJ characteristics are highly variable with definition. Use of different definitions identifies both different frequencies of LLJs and different LLJ events. Further, when the model output is down-sampled to lower vertical resolution, the mean jet core wind speed height decreases, but spatial distributions of regions of high frequency and duration are conserved. Implementation of a polynomial interpolation to extrapolate down-sampled output to full-resolution results in reduced sensitivity of LLJ characteristics to down-sampling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE Award No.: DE-FE0023919 Phase 3 Scientific/Technical Report

This is the Phase 3 Report for the ‘Deepwater Methane Hydrate Characterization and Scientific Assessment or Genesis of Methane Hydrates in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM2)’ research project (DOE Award No. DE-FE0023919). The report summarizes activities from January 16, 2018 to September 30, 2019. The project is led by the University of Texas at Austin (UT). The objective is to gain insight into the nature, formation, occurrence and physical properties of methane hydrate-bearing sediments for the purpose of methane hydrate resource appraisal through the planning and execution of drilling, coring, logging, testing and analytical activities that assess the geologic occurrence, regional context, and characteristics of marine methane hydrate deposits in the Gulf of Mexico outer continental shelf (OCS). We determined that it would not be possible to pursue the project with the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) and then developed a revised science and operations plan to maximize the science using a commercial vessel within the budget that is available. We improved the scientific capability of the UT pressure core center by adding the ability to X-ray pressure cores, and the ability to cut and store multiple core samples for experimental analysis. We transferred pressure cores to peer institutions, including the National Energy Technology Lab (NETL) the United States Geological Survey (USGS Woods Hole). We made advances in understanding the composition and source of gasses locked in the methane hydrate from Green Canyon 955 (GC-955). We developed approaches to determine the in-situ salinity of hydrate-bearing samples, revealing that the in situ salinity of the GC 955 reservoir is just above that of seawater. We determined that the GC-955 hydrate reservoir is composed of sandy silt with a high concentration of hydrate interbedded with clayey silt with no hydrate present. We determined that some or all of the intervals bounding the hydrate reservoir are composed of material similar to the reservoir (sandy silt with hydrate and clayey silt with no hydrate), but with a lower net to gross. We determined that the reservoir effective permeability at a hydrate saturation of ~80-90 % is ~0.1 mD (or 1.0×10-16 m2) to ~0.5 mD (or 5.0×10-16 m2) and the intrinsic permeability is ~12 mD (or 1.2×10-14 m2). The GC-955 reservoir in-situ porosity of sandy silt is 0.38 to 0.40 and is largely independent of effective stress, and that the porosity of clayey silt is 0.33 at an in situ effective stress of 3.8 MPa to ~0.37 at zero effective stress. We developed a systematic, repeatable approach to studying hydrate reservoir properties by reconstituting individual lithofacies from dissociated pressure cores. We determined index properties of GC-955 reservoir, including liquid limit and plasticity, porosity, capillary behavior, and particle size distribution. We developed a more robust pressure coring technology. We finalized and published the UT-GOM2-1 Expedition Volume and we finalized a dedicated volume on the UT-GOM2-1 expedition that will be published in the American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin (AAPG) in spring 2020.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

User-Centered Software Design in the All Hazards Analysis Application

To design good software, you must always keep the end user in mind. Some benefits of incorporating the user-centered design process include saving users time and effort and helping them to utilize all capabilites of an application. In my work on the All Hazards Analysis (AHA) application, I employed principles of user-centered design to make the application easier for new users to navigate. This poster describes user-centered software design in general and showcases some of my user-centered design work on the AHA application.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Visualizing a Vulnerability: Its Connections to Hardware and Software

All Hazards Analysis (AHA) is a framework developed by Idaho National Laboratory that provides capabilities to collect, store, analyze, and visualize critical infrastructure information. A core function of AHA is its ability to simulate faults or outages in networks of infrastructure originating from a plethora of causes, ranging from natural disasters to cyberattacks. AHA utilizes Hardware and Software Bills of Material (HBOM and SBOM, respectively) along with Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEVs) to document the potential attack vectors for each piece of infrastructure. The objective of this contribution to AHA was to create a visualization tool that could capture the small details held in each individual artifact as well as preserve the large-scale connections that link them together to aid threat modeling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗