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DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate the Fourier Forecasting Neural Network (FourCastNet), a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 global reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Here, our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Data assimilation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Battery Charge Curve Prediction via Feature Extraction and Supervised Machine Learning

Real-time onboard state monitoring and estimation of a battery over its lifetime is indispensable for the safe and durable operation of battery-powered devices. In this study, a methodology to predict the entire constant-current cycling curve with limited input information that can be collected in a short period of time is developed. A total of 10 066 charge curves of LiNiO 2 -based batteries at a constant C-rate are collected. With the combination of a feature extraction step and a multiple linear regression step, the method can accurately predict an entire battery charge curve with an error of < 2% using only 10% of the charge curve as the input information. The method is further validated across other battery chemistries (LiCoO 2 -based) using open-access datasets. The prediction error of the charge curves for the LiCoO 2 -based battery is around 2% with only 5% of the charge curve as the input information, indicating the generalization of the developed methodology for predicting battery cycling curves. The developed method paves the way for fast onboard health status monitoring and estimation for batteries during practical applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning using host/guest energy histograms to predict adsorption in metal–organic frameworks: Application to short alkanes and Xe/Kr mixtures

A machine learning (ML) methodology that uses a histogram of interaction energies has been applied to predict gas adsorption in metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) using results from atomistic grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulations as training and test data. In this work, the method is first extended to binary mixtures of spherical species, in particular, Xe and Kr. In addition, it is shown that single-component adsorption of ethane and propane can be predicted in good agreement with GCMC simulation using a histogram of the adsorption energies felt by a methyl probe in conjunction with the random forest ML method. Here, the results for propane can be improved by including a small number of MOF textural properties as descriptors. We also discuss the most significant features, which provides physical insight into the most beneficial adsorption energy sites for a given application.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predicting homopolymer and copolymer solubility through machine learning

In this work, we report the development of multiple new machine learning (ML) models to accurately predict homopolymer/copolymer solubility over a diverse set of polymers & solvents, using explainable AI to provide polymer design recommendations.

Stubbs, Christopher D. [Department of Chemistry, C↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-Throughput Screening and Accurate Prediction of Ionic Liquid Viscosities Using Interpretable Machine Learning

Ionic liquids (ILs) are a novel group of green solvents with great promise for various industrial applications, including carbon capture and lignocellulosic biomass deconstruction. However, the use of ILs at the industrial scale remains challenging due to their high viscosities at ambient temperatures. To develop ILs with lower viscosities, a systematic study of their quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) is desirable. Here, we developed four machine learning (ML) models to predict viscosity at various temperature and pressure ranges, trained over a wide range of ILs consisting of various cationic and anionic families. ML methods including two-factor polynomial regression (two-factor PR), support vector regression (SVR), feed-forward neural networks (FFNN), and categorical boosting (CATBoost) were developed based on features that have proven useful in previous ML studies: COSMO-RS (conductor-like screening model for real solvents)-derived surface screening charge densities (sigma profiles). FFNN and CATBoost were the most accurate in predicting IL viscosities with lower average absolute relative deviation and higher R2 values on the test set. Tanimoto similarity scores were calculated to characterize the chemical space and structural similarity of the investigated ions. Furthermore, SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) analysis was employed to interpret the ML results. Temperature, the polar area of ILs, and the nonpolar regions of ions are key features that influence the viscosity predictions. Importantly, the IL viscosity prediction here is the most accurate reported to date.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Phase Selection Rules of Multi‐Principal Element Alloys

Abstract Computational prediction of phase stability of multi‐principal element alloys (MPEAs) holds a lot of promise for rapid exploration of the enormous design space and autonomous discovery of superior structural and functional properties. Regardless of many plausible works that rely on phenomenological theory and machine learning, precise prediction is still limited by insufficient data and the lack of interpretability of some machine learning algorithms, e.g., convolutional neural network. In this work, a comprehensive approach is presented, encompassing the development of a complete dataset that contains 72 387 density functional theory calculations, as well as a predictive global phenomenological descriptor. The phase selection descriptor, based on atomic electronegativity and valence electron concentration, significantly outperforms the widely used valence electron concentration, excelling in both accuracy (with an f1 score of 63% compared to 47%) and its ability to predict the HCP phase (0.48 recall compared to 0). The comprehensive data mining on the global design space of 61 425 quaternary MPEAs made from 28 possible metals, together with the phenomenological theory and physical interpretation, will set up a solid computational science foundation for data‐driven exploration of MPEAs.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2022

Constructing A New CHF Look-Up Table Based on the Domain Knowledge Informed Machine Learning Methodology

Accurate prediction of CHF under various fluid flow conditions continues to be required for design, operation and safety analysis of light water reactor rod bundles. Due to the lack of in-depth physical understanding as well as limited high-resolution data in the micro-scale flow and heat transfer, the existing models feature a sub-optimal uncertainty band. In this study, driven by the prior domain knowledge information obtained, an improved CHF look-up table is developed through unified machine learning algorithms for the vertical flow conditions within tube and annulus geometry. The Groeneveld 2006 look-up table is used as the domain knowledge to train machine learning process against tube and annulus CHF data for both DNB and DO type. The new look-up table shows improved accuracy for conditions relevant to PWRs and BWRs. In addition, its domain knowledge informed nature ensures that a rationale prediction can be made, thus accounting for previous valuable information in the machine learning model training process.

Jin, Yue↗

DOE OSTI2020

Prediction of condition-specific regulatory genes using machine learning

Recent advances in genomic technologies have generated data on large-scale protein–DNA interactions and open chromatin regions for many eukaryotic species. How to identify condition-specific functions of transcription factors using these data has become a major challenge in genomic research. To solve this problem, we have developed a method called ConSReg, which provides a novel approach to integrate regulatory genomic data into predictive machine learning models of key regulatory genes. Using Arabidopsis as a model system, we tested our approach to identify regulatory genes in data sets from single cell gene expression and from abiotic stress treatments. Our results showed that ConSReg accurately predicted transcription factors that regulate differentially expressed genes with an average auROC of 0.84, which is 23.5–25% better than enrichment-based approaches. To further validate the performance of ConSReg, we analyzed an independent data set related to plant nitrogen responses. ConSReg provided better rankings of the correct transcription factors in 61.7% of cases, which is three times better than other plant tools. We applied ConSReg to Arabidopsis single cell RNA-seq data, successfully identifying candidate regulatory genes that control cell wall formation. Our methods provide a new approach to define candidate regulatory genes using integrated genomic data in plants.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate FourCastNet, a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 data. Our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Adrian, Melissa [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United Stat↗

DOE OSTI2022

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

Geothermal exploration and production are challenging, expensive and risky. The GeoThermalCloud uses Machine Learning to predict the location of hidden geothermal resources. This submission includes a training dataset for the GeoThermalCloud neural network. Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Early calendar life and health prediction of silicon batteries via machine learning with uncertainty quantification

Lithium-ion batteries with silicon anodes promise high energy density but are limited by calendar lifetime. Reducing the long iteration time to obtain experimental results requires predicting calendar lifetime early in a cell's life. In this study, we demonstrate that lightweight machine learning models with feature engineering can provide calendar lifetime estimates from early electrochemical signals. After 1 month of electrochemical aging, the best models achieve 10% error in calendar-life prediction and can separate "bad" from "good" lifetime cells with a mean F1 score of 0.857. As battery systems exhibit inherent variability, four methods for uncertainty quantification are compared, and confidence intervals are demonstrated with an uncertainty of +-3.6 months in lifetime prediction. A feature importance analysis indicates that early patterns in voltage decay are the strongest indicators of calendar lifetime. Finally, this modeling approach has high error when generalizing to new electrode chemistries or testing conditions but with appropriately low confidence.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Augmenting machine learning of energy landscapes with local structural information

We present a machine learning approach for accurately predicting formation energies of binary compounds in the context of crystal structure predictions. The success of any machine learning model depends significantly on the choice of representation used to encode the relevant physical information into machine-learnable data. We test different representation schemes based on partial radial and angular distribution functions (RDF+ADF) on Al–Ni and Cd–Te structures generated using our genetic algorithm for structure prediction. We observe a remarkable improvement in predictive accuracy upon transitioning from global to atom-centered representations, resulting in a threefold decrease in prediction errors. We show that a support vector regression model using a combination of atomic radial and angular distribution functions performs best at the formation energy prediction task, providing small root mean squared errors of 3.9 meV/atom and 10.9 meV/atom for Al–Ni and Cd–Te, respectively. We test the performance of our models against common traditional descriptors and find that RDF- and ADF-based representations significantly outperform many of those in the prediction of formation energies. The high accuracy of predictions makes our machine learning models great candidates for the exploration of energy landscapes.

Honrao, Shreyas J. (ORCID:0000000166155257)↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Machine Learning-based Approach to Predict the Aggregate Flexibility of HVAC Systems

Use of renewable energy resources can play a significant role in mitigation of climate change since they reduce the dependency on fossil fuels. However, high penetration of renewable energy resources into the power grid may cause some reliability problems. Ancillary services are key to realize the potential of renewable resources without disturbing the grid reliability. In recent years, many control approaches focused on exploiting the aggregate flexible heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) loads of buildings. However, there are still research gaps in assessing in advance the resulting indoor temperature responses for given total power and weather profiles before implementing the controls in the buildings. Such an assessment is critical to guarantee satisfying both the grid related objective (reliability) and the building related objective (occupants' comfort). Towards addressing this research gap, this paper presents a machine-learning approach for predicting the ratings of indoor temperature responses. In this approach, a prediction model was developed using a dataset generated by a set of model-free control simulations. The developed model achieved high prediction accuracy and showed the potential of the proposed approach.

Amasyali, Kadir↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-fidelity model-driven deception platform for cyber-physical systems

A system is described for protecting a cyber-physical system against a potential attacker of the cyber-physical system. The system includes at least one processor configured to: collect historical information about the cyber-physical system, and train, based on the historical information, a machine-learned model to predict future conditions of at least a portion of the cyber-physical system. Responsive to detecting an input signal to the cyber-physical system, the system is configured to output an alert to the cyber-physical system indicative of a potential attacker, and respond to the input signal by simulating, based on the future conditions predicted by the machine-learned model, functionality and communications of the at least a portion of the cyber-physical system.

Edgar, Thomas W.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine-learning-guided descriptor selection for predicting corrosion resistance in multi-principal element alloys

More than $270 billion is spent on combatting corrosion annually in the USA alone. As such, we present a machine-learning (ML) approach to down select corrosion-resistant alloys. Our focus is on a non-traditional class of alloys called multi-principal element alloys (MPEAs). Given the vast search space due to the variety of compositions and descriptors to be considered, and based upon existing corrosion data for MPEAs, we demonstrate descriptor optimization to predict corrosion resistance of any given MPEA. Our ML model with descriptor optimization predicts the corrosion resistance of a given MPEA in the presence of an aqueous environment by down selecting two environmental descriptors (pH of the medium and halide concentration), one chemical composition descriptor (atomic % of element with minimum reduction potential), and two atomic descriptors (difference in lattice constant (Δa) and average reduction potential). Our findings show that, while it is possible to down select corrosion-resistant MPEAs by using ML from a large search space, a larger dataset and higher quality data are needed to accurately predict the corrosion rate of MPEAs. This study shows both the promise and the perils of ML when applied to a complex chemical phenomenon like corrosion of alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

General Protocol for the Accurate Prediction of Molecular 13 C/ 1 H NMR Chemical Shifts via Machine Learning Augmented DFT

An accurate prediction of NMR chemical shifts at affordable computational cost is very important for different types of structural assignments in experimental studies. Density functional theory (DFT) and gauge-including atomic orbital (GIAO) are two of the most popular computational methods for NMR calculation, yet they often fail to resolve ambiguities in structural assignments. In this work, we present a new method that uses machine learning (ML) techniques (DFT + ML) that significantly increases the accuracy of 13 C/ 1 H NMR chemical shift prediction for a variety of organic molecules. The input of the generalizable DFT + ML model contains two critical parts: one is a vector providing insights into chemical environments, which can be evaluated without knowing the exact geometry of the molecule; the other one is the DFT-calculated isotropic shielding constant. The DFT + ML model was trained with a data set containing 476 13 C and 270 1 H experimental chemical shifts. For the DFT methods used here, the root mean square deviations (RMSDs) for the errors between predicted and experimental 13 C/ 1 H chemical shifts can be as small as 2.10/0.18 ppm, which is much lower than those from simple DFT (5.54/0.25 ppm), or DFT + linear regression (LR) (4.77/0.23 ppm) approaches. It also has a smaller maximum absolute error than two previously proposed NMR-predicting ML models. The robustness of the DFT + ML model is tested on two classes of organic molecules (TIC10 and hyacinthacines), where the correct isomers were unambiguously assigned to the experimental ones. Overall, the DFT + ML model shows promise for structural assignments in a variety of systems, including stereoisomers, that are often challenging to determine experimentally.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Generalized and Mechanistic PV Module Performance Prediction From Computer Vision and Machine Learning on Electroluminescence Images

Electroluminescence (EL) imaging of photovoltiac (PV) modules offers high-speed, high-resolution information about device performance, affording opportunities for greater insight and efficiency in module characterization across manufacturing, research and development, and power plant operations and management. Predicting module electrical properties from EL image features is a critical step toward these applications. In this article, we demonstrate quantification of both generalized and performance mechanism-specific EL image features, using pixel intensity-based and machine learning classification algorithms. From EL image features, we build predictive models for PV module power and series resistance, using time-series current-voltage (I-V) and EL data obtained stepwise on five brands of modules spanning three Si cell types through two accelerated exposures: damp heat (DH) (85°C/85% RH) and thermal cycling (TC) (IEC 61215). Overall, 195 pairs of EL images and I-V characteristics were analyzed, yielding 11700 individual PV cell images. A convolutional neural network was built to classify cells by the severity of busbar corrosion with high accuracy (95%). Generalized power predictive models estimated the maximum power of PV modules from EL images with high confidence and an adjusted-R 2 of 0.88, across all module brands and cell types in extended DH and TC exposures. Mechanistic degradation prediction was demonstrated by quantification of busbar corrosion in EL images of three module brands in DH, and subsequent modeling of series resistance using these mechanism-specific EL image features. For modules exhibiting busbar corrosion, we demonstrated series resistance predictive models with adjusted-R 2 of up to 0.73.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗