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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

An adaptive adversarial domain adaptation approach for corn yield prediction

Recently, statistical machine learning and deep learning methods have been widely explored for corn yield prediction. Though successful, machine learning models generated within a specific spatial domain often lose their validity when directly applied to new regions. To address this issue, we designed an unsupervised adaptive domain adversarial neural network (ADANN). Specifically, through domain adversarial training, the ADANN model reduced the impact of domain shift by projecting data from different domains into the same subspace. Also, the ADANN model was designed to be trained in an adaptive way, which guaranteed the model can learn the domain-invariant features and perform accurate yield prediction simultaneously. Informative variables including time-series vegetation indices and sequential weather observations were first collected from multiple data sources and aggregated to the county level. Then, we trained the ADANN model with the extracted features and corresponding reported county-level corn yield from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Finally, the trained model was evaluated in four testing years 2016–2019. The U.S. corn belt was used as the study area and counties under study were grouped into two diverse ecological regions. Overall, the experimental results showed that the developed ADANN model had better performance than three other state-of-the-art machine learning models in both local experiments (train and test in the same region) and transfer experiments (train and test in different regions). As the first study using adversarial learning for crop yield prediction, this research demonstrates a novel solution for improving model transferability on crop yield prediction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design of Digital Twin Sensing Strategies Via Predictive Modeling and Interpretable Machine Learning

This work develops a methodology for sensor placement and dynamic sensor scheduling decisions for digital twins. The digital twin data assimilation is posed as a classification problem, and predictive models are used to train optimal classification trees that represent the map from observed data to estimated digital twin states. In addition to providing a rapid digital twin updating capability, the resulting classification trees yield an interpretable mathematical representation that can be queried to inform sensor placement and sensor scheduling decisions. The proposed approach is demonstrated for a structural digital twin of a 12 ft wingspan unmanned aerial vehicle. Offline, training data are generated by simulating scenarios using predictive reduced-order models of the vehicle in a range of structural states. Furthermore, these training data can be further augmented using experimental or other historical data. In operation, the trained classifier is applied to observational data from the physical vehicle, enabling rapid adaptation of the digital twin in response to changes in structural health. Within this context, we study the performance of the optimal tree classifiers and demonstrate how they enable explainable structural assessments from sparse sensor measurements and also inform optimal sensor placement.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accessible, uniform protein property prediction with a scikit-learn based toolset AIDE

Summary Protein property prediction via machine learning with and without labeled data is becoming increasingly powerful, yet methods are disparate and capabilities vary widely over applications. The software presented here, “Artificial Intelligence Driven protein Estimation (AIDE)”, enables instantiating, optimizing, and testing many zero-shot and supervised property prediction methods for variants and variable length homologs in a single, reproducible notebook or script by defining a modular, standardized application programming interface (API), i.e. drop-in compatible with scikit-learn transformers and pipelines. Availability and implementation AIDE is an installable, importable python package inheriting from scikit-learn classes and API and is installable on Windows, Mac, and Linux. Many of the wrapped models internal to AIDE will be effectively inaccessible without a GPU, and some assume CUDA. The newest stable, tested version can be found at https://github.com/beckham-lab/aide_predict and a full user guide and API reference can be found at https://beckham-lab.github.io/aide_predict/. Static versions of both at the time of writing can be found on Zenodo.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Universal machine learning framework for defect predictions in zinc blende semiconductors

Our article introduces a universal predictive framework for point defect formation energies and charge transition levels in a wide chemical space of zinc blende semiconductors and possible impurity atoms selected from across the periodic table. This framework was developed by leveraging high-throughput quantum mechanical simulations benchmarked using some experimental data from the literature, as well as machine learning (ML)-based regressions techniques that map unique materials descriptors to computed defect properties and yield optimized and generalizable models. Furthermore, the power and utility of these models is revealed through quick predictions for thousands of new defects and screening of low-energy impurities, which may tune the equilibrium conductivity in the semiconductor. This work presents, to our knowledge, the largest density functional theory (DFT) dataset of defect properties in semiconductors and the largest DFT+ML-based screening of point defects in semiconductors to date.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

ELM2.1-XGBfire1.0: improving wildfire prediction by integrating a machine learning fire model in a land surface model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth system models (ESMs). Alternatively, fire models based on machine learning (ML), which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0) that integrates an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran–C–Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001–2019, the ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. The ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 has proven to be a new tool for studying vegetation–fire interactions and, more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate–fire feedback, working as an active component of E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Generalizable machine learning potentials for quantum-accurate predictions of non-equilibrium behavior in 2D materials

Machine learning interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) are emerging as transformative tools in materials modeling, promising quantum-level accuracy at a fraction of the computational cost. However, their ability to generalize beyond equilibrium configurations and to reliably capture defect- and temperature-driven behavior remains underexplored. Here, we develop and benchmark two state-of-the-art ML-IAPs, Spectral Neighbor Analysis Potential (SNAP) and Allegro, on a comprehensive dataset for monolayer MoSe₂. Using density functional theory (DFT) as the reference, we evaluate their performance in capturing stress–strain behavior, phase transition energetics, defect evolution, edge stability, and fracture toughness. Allegro, a deep equivariant neural network potential, surpasses both SNAP and the classical Tersoff potential in accuracy, efficiency, and transferability. Importantly, both ML potentials accurately reproduce experimental fracture measurements and ab initio predictions of inversion domain formation—phenomena well beyond their training sets. Our findings establish ML-IAPs as viable replacements for traditional force fields in the study of non-equilibrium mechanical phenomena, enabling large-scale, high-fidelity simulations in 2D materials and beyond. In conclusion, this work provides a broadly applicable framework for data-driven modeling of structural and functional transformations under extreme conditions.

2D materials↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning materials properties with accurate predictions, uncertainty estimates, domain guidance, and persistent online accessibility

One compelling vision of the future of materials discovery and design involves the use of machine learning (ML) models to predict materials properties and then rapidly find materials tailored for specific applications. However, realizing this vision requires both providing detailed uncertainty quantification (model prediction errors and domain of applicability) and making models readily usable. At present, it is common practice in the community to assess ML model performance only in terms of prediction accuracy (e.g. mean absolute error), while neglecting detailed uncertainty quantification and robust model accessibility and usability. Here, we demonstrate a practical method for realizing both uncertainty and accessibility features with a large set of models. We develop random forest ML models for 33 materials properties spanning an array of data sources (computational and experimental) and property types (electrical, mechanical, thermodynamic, etc). All models have calibrated ensemble error bars to quantify prediction uncertainty and domain of applicability guidance enabled by kernel-density-estimate-based feature distance measures. All data and models are publicly hosted on the Garden-AI infrastructure, which provides an easy-to-use, persistent interface for model dissemination that permits models to be invoked with only a few lines of Python code. We demonstrate the power of this approach by using our models to conduct a fully ML-based materials discovery exercise to search for new stable, highly active perovskite oxide catalyst materials.

domain of applicability↗
DOE OSTI2021

Streamflow simulation in data-scarce basins using Bayesian and physics-informed machine learning models

Hydrologic predictions at rural watersheds are important but also challenging due to data shortage. Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are a promising machine learning approach and have demonstrated good performance in streamflow predictions. However, due to its data-hungry nature, most LSTM applications focus on well-monitored catchments with abundant and high-quality observations. In this work, we investigate predictive capabilities of LSTM in poorly monitored watersheds with short observation records. To address three main challenges of LSTM applications in data-scarce locations, i.e., overfitting, uncertainty quantification (UQ), and out-of-distribution prediction, we evaluate different regularization techniques to prevent overfitting, apply a Bayesian LSTM for UQ, and introduce a physics-informed hybrid LSTM to enhance out-of-distribution prediction. Through case studies in two diverse sets of catchments with and without snow influence, we demonstrate that 1) when hydrologic variability in the prediction period is similar to the calibration period, LSTM models can reasonably predict daily streamflow with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency above 0.8, even with only 2 years of calibration data; 2) when the hydrologic variability in the prediction and calibration periods is dramatically different, LSTM alone does not predict well, but the hybrid model can improve the out-of-distribution prediction with acceptable generalization accuracy; 3) L2 norm penalty and dropout can mitigate overfitting, and Bayesian and hybrid LSTM have no overfitting; and 4) Bayesian LSTM provides useful uncertainty information to improve prediction understanding and credibility. In conclusion, these insights have vital implications for streamflow simulation in watersheds where data quality and availability are a critical issue.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting concrete compressive strength using hybrid ensembling of surrogate machine learning models

This study aims to implement a hybrid ensemble surrogate machine learning technique in predicting the compressive strength (CS) of concrete, an important parameter used for durability design and service life prediction of concrete structures in civil engineering projects. For this purpose, an experimental database consisting of 1030 records has been compiled from the machine learning repository of the University of California, Irvine. The database was used to train and validate four conventional machine learning (CML) models, namely Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Linear and Non-Linear Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS-L and MARS-C), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Minimax Probability Machine Regression (MPMR). Subsequently, the predicted outputs of CML models were combined and trained using ANN to construct the Hybrid Ensemble Model (HENSM). It is observed that the proposed HENSM produces higher predictive accuracy compared to the CML models used in the present study. The predictive performance of all models for CS prediction was compared using the testing dataset and it is found that the HENSM model attained the highest predictive accuracy in both phases. Based on the experimental results, the newly constructed HENSM model is very potential to be a new alternative in handling the overfitting issues of CML models and hence, can be used to predict the concrete CS, including the design of less polluting and more sustainable concrete constructions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Importance of Engineered and Learned Molecular Representations in Predicting Organic Reactivity, Selectivity, and Chemical Properties

Machine-readable chemical structure representations are foundational in all attempts to harness machine learning for the prediction of reactivities, selectivities, and chemical properties directly from molecular structure. The featurization of discrete chemical structures into a continuous vector space is a critical phase undertaken before model selection, and the development of new ways to quantitatively encode molecules is an active area of research. Here, we highlight the application and suitability of different representations, from expert-guided “engineered” descriptors to automatically “learned” features, in different prediction tasks relevant to organic and organometallic chemistry, where differing amounts of training data are available. These tasks include statistical models of stereo- and enantioselectivity, thermochemistry, and kinetics developed using experimental and quantum chemical data. The use of expert-guided molecular descriptors provides an opportunity to incorporate chemical knowledge, domain expertise, and physical constraints into statistical modeling. In applications to stereoselective organic and organometallic catalysis, where data sets may be relatively small and 3D-geometries and conformations play an important role, mechanistically informed features can be used successfully to obtain predictive statistical models that are also chemically interpretable. We provide an overview of several recent applications of this approach to obtain quantitative models for reactivity and selectivity, where topological descriptors, quantum mechanical calculations of electronic and steric properties, along with conformational ensembles, all feature as essential ingredients of the molecular representations used. Alternatively, more flexible, general-purpose molecular representations such as attributed molecular graphs can be used with machine learning approaches to learn the complex relationship between a structure and prediction target. This approach has the potential to out-perform more traditional representation methods such as “hand-crafted” molecular descriptors, particularly as data set sizes grow. One area where this is particularly relevant is in the use of large sets of quantum mechanical data to train quantitative structure–property relationships. A general approach toward curating useful data sets and training highly accurate graph neural network models is discussed in the context of organic bond dissociation enthalpies, where this strategy outperforms regression using precomputed descriptors. Finally, we describe how graph neural network predictions can be incorporated into mechanistically informed statistical models of chemical reactivity and selectivity. Once trained, this approach avoids the expensive computational overhead associated with quantum mechanical calculations, while maintaining chemical interpretability. We illustrate examples for which fast predictions of bond dissociation enthalpy and of the identities of radicals formed through cleavage of a molecule’s weakest bond are used in simple physical models of site-selectivity and reactivity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Performance and power modeling and prediction using MuMMI and 10 machine learning methods

Energy-efficient scientific applications require insight into how high performance computing system features impact the applications' power and performance. This insight can result from the development of performance and power models. Here, in this article, we use the modeling and prediction tool MuMMI (Multiple Metrics Modeling Infrastructure) and 10 machine learning methods to model and predict performance and power consumption and compare their prediction error rates. We use an algorithm-based fault-tolerant linear algebra code and a multilevel checkpointing fault-tolerant heat distribution code to conduct our modeling and prediction study on the Cray XC40 Theta and IBM BG/Q Mira at Argonne National Laboratory and the Intel Haswell cluster Shepard at Sandia National Laboratories. Our experimental results show that the prediction error rates in performance and power using MuMMI are less than 10% for most cases. By utilizing the models for runtime, node power, CPU power, and memory power, we identify the most significant performance counters for potential application optimizations, and we predict theoretical outcomes of the optimizations. Based on two collected datasets, we analyze and compare the prediction accuracy in performance and power consumption using MuMMI and 10 machine learning methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Recursive Multi-step Machine Learning Approach for Airport Configuration Prediction

Airport configuration selection is a complex decision-making process that involves several operational and human factors. In this paper we propose a novel recursive multi-step machine learning (ML) approach to predict airport configuration. The multi-step approach guarantees stability of the predicted configuration by taking as input the configuration predicted at the previous time step. The features of the proposed model include weather data, future arrival and departure counts and current configuration. Due to the importance of arrival and departure counts in predicting the airport configuration, arrival counts are calculated using landing time predictions selected from physics-based landing time predictions available in FAA System Wide Information Management data feeds for each flight. The selection rules were developed and refined to select the most accurate time for different phases of flight. The proposed model predicts the airport configurations up to 6 hours ahead. In this paper we show the predictive performance of the proposed model for six major US airports, including Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT), Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW), John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK), Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR), LaGuardia Airport (LGA) and Dallas Love Field Airport (DAL). We trained and evaluated models on 2019 and 2020 data in order to study the effect of the pandemic and how changes in traffic patterns affected the performance of the proposed model. Results are compared with a baseline assuming no airport configuration changes. In our results for DFW, we obtained a prediction accuracy of 89.3% for 3 hours ahead prediction, and 82.8% for 6 hours ahead when applied on 2019 data.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Recursive Multi-step Machine Learning Approach for Airport Configuration Prediction

Airport configuration selection is a complex decision-making process that involves several operational and human factors. In this paper we propose a novel recursive multi-step machine learning (ML) approach to predict airport configuration. The multi-step approach guarantees stability of the predicted configuration by taking as input the configuration predicted at the previous time step. The features of the proposed model include weather data, future arrival and departure counts and current configuration. Due to the importance of arrival and departure counts in predicting the airport configuration, arrival counts are calculated using landing time predictions selected from physics-based landing time predictions available in FAA System Wide Information Management data feeds for each flight. The selection rules were developed and refined to select the most accurate time for different phases of flight. The proposed model predicts the airport configurations up to 6 hours ahead. In this paper we show the predictive performance of the proposed model for six major US airports, including Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT), Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW), John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK), Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR), LaGuardia Airport (LGA) and Dallas Love Field Airport (DAL). We trained and evaluated models on 2019 and 2020 data in order to study the effect of the pandemic and how changes in traffic patterns affected the performance of the proposed model. Results are compared with a baseline assuming no airport configuration changes. In our results for DFW, we obtained a prediction accuracy of 89.3% for 3 hours ahead prediction, and 82.8% for 6 hours ahead when applied on 2019 data.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2021

Laboratory earthquake forecasting: A machine learning competition

Earthquake prediction, the long-sought holy grail of earthquake science, continues to confound Earth scientists. Could we make advances by crowdsourcing, drawing from the vast knowledge and creativity of the machine learning (ML) community? We used Google’s ML competition platform, Kaggle, to engage the worldwide ML community with a competition to develop and improve data analysis approaches on a forecasting problem that uses laboratory earthquake data. The competitors were tasked with predicting the time remaining before the next earthquake of successive laboratory quake events, based on only a small portion of the laboratory seismic data. The more than 4,500 participating teams created and shared more than 400 computer programs in openly accessible notebooks. Complementing the now well-known features of seismic data that map to fault criticality in the laboratory, the winning teams employed unexpected strategies based on rescaling failure times as a fraction of the seismic cycle and comparing input distribution of training and testing data. In addition to yielding scientific insights into fault processes in the laboratory and their relation with the evolution of the statistical properties of the associated seismic data, the competition serves as a pedagogical tool for teaching ML in geophysics. The approach may provide a model for other competitions in geosciences or other domains of study to help engage the ML community on problems of significance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging structure-informed machine learning for fast steric zipper propensity prediction across whole proteomes

Predicting the amyloid fold and the propensity of peptide segments to adopt amyloid-like structures remain a challenge. However, recent progress has facilitated structure-based prediction of steric zipper propensity and the use of machine learning to accelerate the calculation of predictive models across many scientific areas. Leveraging these advances, we have developed a new approach for rapid proteome-wide assessment of zipper profiles that is informed by four million steric zipper predictions collected over ten years. This collection is used to build a machine learning model capable of rapidly predicting steric zipper propensity, and allowing for the assessment of zippers at both the protein and proteome level. Our predictions show enrichment for zipper forming segments in proteins involved in cell wall reorganization in yeast, highlighting a potential category of interest for experimental characterization. Overall, our predictive model allows for the exploration of amyloid formation across the tree of life and provides a tool for assessment of both novel and designed sequences for zipper density.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using Machine Learning for Quantum Annealing Accuracy Prediction

Quantum annealers, such as the device built by D-Wave Systems, Inc., offer a way to compute solutions of NP-hard problems that can be expressed in Ising or quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) form. Although such solutions are typically of very high quality, problem instances are usually not solved to optimality due to imperfections of the current generations quantum annealers. In this contribution, we aim to understand some of the factors contributing to the hardness of a problem instance, and to use machine learning models to predict the accuracy of the D-Wave 2000Q annealer for solving specific problems. We focus on the maximum clique problem, a classic NP-hard problem with important applications in network analysis, bioinformatics, and computational chemistry. By training a machine learning classification model on basic problem characteristics such as the number of edges in the graph, or annealing parameters, such as the D-Wave’s chain strength, we are able to rank certain features in the order of their contribution to the solution hardness, and present a simple decision tree which allows to predict whether a problem will be solvable to optimality with the D-Wave 2000Q. We extend these results by training a machine learning regression model that predicts the clique size found by D-Wave.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗