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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2018

Scalable deep text comprehension for Cancer surveillance on high-performance computing

Background: Deep Learning (DL) has advanced the state-of-the-art capabilities in bioinformatics applications which has resulted in trends of increasingly sophisticated and computationally demanding models trained by larger and larger data sets. This vastly increased computational demand challenges the feasibility of conducting cutting-edge research. One solution is to distribute the vast computational workload across multiple computing cluster nodes with data parallelism algorithms. In this study, we used a High-Performance Computing environment and implemented the Downpour Stochastic Gradient Descent algorithm for data parallelism to train a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for the natural language processing task of information extraction from a massive dataset of cancer pathology reports. We evaluated the scalability improvements using data parallelism training and the Titan supercomputer at Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. To evaluate scalability, we used different numbers of worker nodes and performed a set of experiments comparing the effects of different training batch sizes and optimizer functions.Results: We found that Adadelta would consistently converge at a lower validation loss, though requiring over twice as many training epochs as the fastest converging optimizer, RMSProp. The Adam optimizer consistently achieved a close 2nd place minimum validation loss significantly faster; using a batch size of 16 and 32 allowed the network to converge in only 4.5 training epochs.Conclusions: We demonstrated that the networked training process is scalable across multiple compute nodes communicating with message passing interface while achieving higher classification accuracy compared to a traditional machine learning algorithm.

Qiu, John X.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Baseflow Identification via Explainable AI With Kolmogorov‐Arnold Networks

Abstract Hydrological models often involve constitutive laws that may not be optimal in every application. We propose to replace such laws with the Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KANs), a class of neural networks designed to identify symbolic expressions. We demonstrate KAN's potential on the problem of baseflow identification, a notoriously challenging task plagued by significant uncertainty. KAN‐derived functional dependencies of the baseflow components on the aridity index outperform their original counterparts; they demonstrate that water availability, rather than potential evapotranspiration, drives baseflow by constraining actual evapotranspiration under arid conditions. On a test set, they increase the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) by 65%, decrease the root mean squared error by 29%, and increase the Kling‐Gupta efficiency by 34%. This superior performance is achieved while reducing the number of fitting parameters from three to two. Next, we use data from 378 catchments across the continental United States to refine the water‐balance equation at the mean‐annual scale. The KAN‐derived equations based on the refined water balance outperform both the current aridity index model, with up to a 105% increase in NSE, and the KAN‐derived equations based on the original water balance. While the performance of our model and tree‐based machine learning methods is similar, KANs offer the advantage of simplicity and transparency and require no specific software or computational tools. This case study focuses on the aridity index formulation, but the approach is flexible and transferable to other hydrological processes. Plain Language Summary Equations used in hydrologic model are often suboptimal, resulting in reduced prediction accuracy and efficiency. We implemented Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KAN), a machine learning algorithm for deriving symbolic formulations, to estimate groundwater recharge and showed that it outperforms an existing state‐of‐the‐art semi‐empirical formulation. In hydrology, Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE) are commonly used to evaluate model performance. Higher NSE and KGE values indicate better performance, while lower RMSE values are preferable. Our results show that NSE increased by 71%, RMSE decreased by 32%, and KGE improved by 25%. In addition, KAN identifies an optimal functional form and can be used to derive new analytical formulas using the prior knowledge. The KAN‐inspired equation outperformed the original formulation and reduced the fitting parameters. Furthermore, we refined the water‐balance equation at the mean‐annual scale and showed that, based on the new water‐balance equation, KAN can derive new formulations that are superior to the original aridity index formulations (up to 105% increase in NSE) and KAN‐derived equations based on the original water balance. These findings highlight the significant potential of KAN to advance the scientific understanding of a wide range of hydrologic processes. Key Points Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KANs) enhance interpretability of machine‐learned hydrological models KAN‐derived symbolic formulations outperform state‐of‐the‐art semi‐empirical aridity indices KAN‐identified functional form yields an analytical index with fewer fitting parameters and improved performance

baseflow↗

DOE OSTI2018

Geologic CO 2 sequestration monitoring design: A machine learning and uncertainty quantification based approach

Monitoring is a crucial aspect of geologic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration risk management. Effective monitoring is critical to ensure CO 2 is safely and permanently stored throughout the life-cycle of a geologic CO 2 sequestration project. Effective monitoring involves deciding: (i) where is the optimal location to place the monitoring well(s), and (ii) what type of data (pressure, temperature, CO 2 saturation, etc.) should be measured taking into consideration the uncertainties at geologic sequestration sites. We have developed a filtering-based data assimilation procedure to design effective monitoring approaches. To reduce the computational cost of the filtering-based data assimilation process, a machine-learning algorithm: Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines is used to derive computationally effcient reduced order models from results of full-physics numerical simulations of CO 2 injection in saline aquifer and subsequent multi-phase fluid flow. We use example scenarios of CO 2 leakage through legacy wellbore and demonstrate a monitoring strategy can be selected with the aim of reducing uncertainty in metrics related to CO 2 leakage. We demonstrate the proposed framework with two synthetic examples: a simple validation case and a more complicated case including multiple monitoring wells. The examples demonstrate that the proposed approach can be effective in developing monitoring approaches that take into consideration uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predictive Models of Genetic Redundancy in Arabidopsis thaliana

Abstract Genetic redundancy refers to a situation where an individual with a loss-of-function mutation in one gene (single mutant) does not show an apparent phenotype until one or more paralogs are also knocked out (double/higher-order mutant). Previous studies have identified some characteristics common among redundant gene pairs, but a predictive model of genetic redundancy incorporating a wide variety of features derived from accumulating omics and mutant phenotype data is yet to be established. In addition, the relative importance of these features for genetic redundancy remains largely unclear. Here, we establish machine learning models for predicting whether a gene pair is likely redundant or not in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana based on six feature categories: functional annotations, evolutionary conservation including duplication patterns and mechanisms, epigenetic marks, protein properties including posttranslational modifications, gene expression, and gene network properties. The definition of redundancy, data transformations, feature subsets, and machine learning algorithms used significantly affected model performance based on holdout, testing phenotype data. Among the most important features in predicting gene pairs as redundant were having a paralog(s) from recent duplication events, annotation as a transcription factor, downregulation during stress conditions, and having similar expression patterns under stress conditions. We also explored the potential reasons underlying mispredictions and limitations of our studies. This genetic redundancy model sheds light on characteristics that may contribute to long-term maintenance of paralogs, and will ultimately allow for more targeted generation of functionally informative double mutants, advancing functional genomic studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

An application of survival analysis to disruption prediction via Random Forests</strong

We report one of the most pressing challenges facing the fusion community is adequately mitigating or, even better, avoiding disruptions of tokamak plasmas. However, before this can be done, disruptions must first be predicted with sufficient warning time to actuate a response. The established field of survival analysis provides a convenient statistical framework for time-to-event (i.e. time-to-disruption) studies. This paper demonstrates the integration of an existing disruption prediction machine learning algorithm with the Kaplan–Meier estimator of survival probability. Specifically discussed are the implied warning times from binary classification of disruption databases and the interpretation of output signals from Random Forest algorithms trained and tested on these databases. This survival analysis approach is applied to both smooth and noisy test data to highlight important features of the survival and hazard functions. In addition, this method is applied to three Alcator C-Mod plasma discharges and compared to a threshold-based scheme for triggering alarms. In one case, both techniques successfully predict the disruption; although, in another, neither warns of the impending disruption with enough time to mitigate. For the final discharge, the survival analysis approach could avoid the false alarm triggered by the threshold method. Limitations of this analysis and opportunities for future work are also presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Land surface dynamics and meteorological forcings modulate land surface temperature characteristics

This study examines the effect of land cover, vegetation health, climatic forcings, elevation heat loads, and terrain characteristics (LVCET) on land surface temperature (LST) distribution over West Africa (WA). We employ fourteen machine-learning models, which preserve nonlinear relationships, to downscale LST and other predictands while preserving the geographical variability of WA. Our results showed that the random forest model performs best in downscaling predictands. This is important for the sub-region since it has limited access to mainframes to power multiplex machine-learning algorithms. In contrast to the northern regions, the southern regions consistently exhibit healthy vegetation. Also, areas with unhealthy vegetation coincide with hot LST clusters. The positive Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trends in the Sahel underscore rainfall recovery and subsequent Sahelian greening. The southwesterly winds cause the upwelling of cold waters, lowering LST in southern WA and highlighting the cooling influence of water bodies on LST. Identifying regions with elevated LST is paramount for prioritizing greening initiatives, and our study underscores the importance of considering LVCET factors in urban planning. Topographic slope-facing angles, heat loads, and diurnal anisotropic heat all contribute to variations in LST, emphasizing the need for a holistic approach when designing resilient and sustainable landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Demand Response Optimization and Management System for Real-TIme (DROMS-RT)

To design and demonstrate DROMS-RT, a highly distributed Demand Response Optimization and Management System for Real-Time (DROMS-RT) power flow control to support large scale integration of distributed renewable generation into the grid. AutoGrid developed a novel control and communications platform to allow highly dispatchable demand response (DR) services in time frames suitable for providing ancillary services to the transmission grid. These services will be substantially less expensive and more efficient than other forms of ancillary services options currently available to manage the intermittency associated with large-scale renewable integration. DROMSRT successfully leveraged Automated Demand Response (ADR) by fundamentally re-thinking the architecture of the DR platform from the ground up and by developing innovative new technologies in a number of areas related to DR. DROMS-RT leveraged the low-cost, open, interoperable DR signaling technology, OpenADR, and low-cost, internet-protocol based telemetry solutions to reduce the cost of hardware. This allowed DROMS-RT to provide dynamic price signals to millions of OpenADR clients. Statistically rigorous signal processing techniques were developed to reliably detect even small load reductions in the presence of noisy baseline profiles. Novel forecasting engines based on modern online machine learning algorithms enabled accurate individualized forecasts for customer loads in the presence of dynamic pricing signals, and a real-time decision engines enabled continuous optimization and optimal dispatch of DR resources across a large portfolio of heterogeneous loads that respond at varying time-scales. Moreover, the real-time optimization conducted by the decision engine can utilize grid physics to maximize load reduction at the transmission system in addition to the distribution sites, for more efficient grid operation. Finally, the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) availability of the DROMS-RT platform has reduced the cost of deployment and enable participation of small commercial and residential customers in DR who otherwise would not be able to do so.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Discovery of structure–property relations for molecules via hypothesis-driven active learning over the chemical space

The discovery of the molecular candidates for application in drug targets, biomolecular systems, catalysts, photovoltaics, organic electronics, and batteries necessitates the development of machine learning algorithms capable of rapid exploration of chemical spaces targeting the desired functionalities. Here, we introduce a novel approach for active learning over the chemical spaces based on hypothesis learning. We construct the hypotheses on the possible relationships between structures and functionalities of interest based on a small subset of data followed by introducing them as (probabilistic) mean functions for the Gaussian process. This approach combines the elements from the symbolic regression methods, such as SISSO and active learning, into a single framework. The primary focus of constructing this framework is to approximate physical laws in an active learning regime toward a more robust predictive performance, as traditional evaluation on hold-out sets in machine learning does not account for out-of-distribution effects which may lead to a complete failure on unseen chemical space. Here, we demonstrate it for the QM9 dataset, but it can be applied more broadly to datasets from both domains of molecular and solid-state materials sciences.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

DER Cybersecurity Detection and Response Suite

SAND2024-08475O The Distributed Energy Resource (DER) Cybersecurity Detection and Response Suite is a solution for distributed energy resource (DER) systems. The DER Security Orchestration, Automation, and Response (SOAR) solution that uses alerts from signature- and behavior-based Intrusion Detection Systems are intended to be deployed as bump-in-the-wire (BITW) devices in front of DER equipment. The fielded application would use multiple intrusion detection systems that report data to SOAR to respond to cyberattacks. The suite consists of two software components: • The proactive intrusion detection and mitigation system (PIDMS) secures grid-edge photovoltaic smart inverters and other equipment in distributed energy resource systems. It is a distributed BITW solution; cyber and physical data are automatically processed using network inspection tools and custom machine learning algorithms to detect abnormal events and correlate cyber-physical events. • The Security Orchestration, Automation, and Response for Distributed Energy Resources (SOAR4DER) application ingests data from several intrusion detection systems to quickly block attacks and revert DER systems to good states. Using a collection of intrusion detection system technologies on a BITW device, it incorporates physical and cyber data to detect abnormal and potential malicious behaviors. Multiple SOAR playbooks then use the intrusion detection system data streams to automatically defend the system. SOAR4DER system testing showed detection and response times under 30 seconds for all adversary reconnaissance, denial-of-service attacks, malicious Modbus commands, brute-force logins, and machine-in-the-middle attacks. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Johnson, Jay↗

DOE OSTI2017

Predicting Solar Flares Using SDO /HMI Vector Magnetic Data Products and the Random Forest Algorithm

Adverse space-weather effects can often be traced to solar flares, the prediction of which has drawn significant research interests. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) produces full-disk vector magnetograms with continuous high cadence, while flare prediction efforts utilizing this unprecedented data source are still limited. Here we report results of flare prediction using physical parameters provided by the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) and related data products. We survey X-ray flares that occurred from 2010 May to 2016 December and categorize their source regions into four classes (B, C, M, and X) according to the maximum GOES magnitude of flares they generated. We then retrieve SHARP-related parameters for each selected region at the beginning of its flare date to build a database. Finally, we train a machine-learning algorithm, called random forest (RF), to predict the occurrence of a certain class of flares in a given active region within 24 hr, evaluate the classifier performance using the 10-fold cross-validation scheme, and characterize the results using standard performance metrics. Compared to previous works, our experiments indicate that using the HMI parameters and RF is a valid method for flare forecasting with fairly reasonable prediction performance. To our knowledge, this is the first time that RF has been used to make multiclass predictions of solar flares. We also find that the total unsigned quantities of vertical current, current helicity, and flux near the polarity inversion line are among the most important parameters for classifying flaring regions into different classes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predictive analytics of selections of russet potatoes

We explore the application of machine learning algorithms specifically to enhance the selection process of Russet potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) clones in breeding trials by predicting their suitability for advancement. This study addresses the challenge of efficiently identifying high-yield, disease-resistant, and climate-resilient potato varieties that meet processing industry standards. Leveraging manually collected data from trials in the state of Oregon, we investigate the potential of a wide variety of state-of-the-art binary classification models. The dataset includes 1086 clones, with data on 38 attributes recorded for each clone, focusing on yield, size, appearance, and frying characteristics, with several control varieties planted consistently across four Oregon regions from 2013 to 2021. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dataset that includes preprocessing, feature engineering, and imputation to address missing values. We focus on several key metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for model evaluation. The top-performing models, namely a feedforward neural network classifier (Neural Net), a histogram-based gradient boosting classifier (HGBC), and a support vector machine classifier (SVM), demonstrate consistent and significant results. To further validate our findings, we conducted a simulation study using the aims, data-generating mechanisms, estimands, methods, and performance measures (ADEMP) framework, simulating different data-generating scenarios to assess model robustness and performance through true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative distributions, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and MCC. The simulation results highlight that non-linear models like SVM and HGBC consistently show higher AUC-ROC and MCC than logistic regression, thus outperforming the traditional linear model across various distributions, and emphasizing the importance of model selection and tuning in agricultural trials. Variable selection further enhances model performance and identifies influential features in predicting trial outcomes. The findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in streamlining the selection process for potato varieties, offering benefits such as increased efficiency, substantial cost savings, and judicious resource utilization. Our study contributes insights into precision agriculture and showcases the relevance of advanced technologies for informed decision-making in breeding programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Real‐time monitoring and diagnosis of photovoltaic system degradation only using maximum power point—the Suns‐Vmp method

Abstract The uncertainties associated with technology‐specific and geography‐specific degradation rates make it difficult to calculate the levelized cost of energy, and thus the economic viability of solar energy. In this regard, millions of fielded photovoltaic modules may serve as a global testbed, where we can interpret the routinely collected time series maximum power point (MPP) data to assess the time‐dependent “health” of solar modules. The existing characterization methods, however, cannot effectively mine/decode these datasets to identify various degradation pathways. In this paper, we propose a new methodology called the Suns‐Vmp method , which offers a simple yet powerful approach to monitoring and diagnosing time‐dependent degradation of solar modules by using the MPP data. The algorithm reconstructs “IV” curves by using the natural illumination‐dependent and temperature‐dependent daily MPP characteristics as constraints to fit physics‐based circuit models. These synthetic IV characteristics are then used to determine the time‐dependent evolution of circuit parameters (eg, series resistance), which in turn allows one to deduce the dominant degradation modes (eg, solder bond failure) of solar modules. The proposed method has been applied to a test facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Our analysis indicates that the solar modules degraded at a rate of ~0.7%/year because of discoloration and weakened solder bonds. These conclusions are validated by independent outdoor IV measurements and on‐site imaging characterization. Integrated with physics‐based degradation models or machine learning algorithms, the method can also serve to predict the lifetime of photovoltaic systems.

Sun, Xingshu↗

DOE OSTI2026

Automation of Laser Plasma Focused Ion Beam Microscopy for Next-Gen Energy Materials

Automation can revolutionize the use of ultrafast laser ablation and plasma-focused ion beam (PFIB) techniques for high-throughput, reproducible cross-sectioning and various sample preparation in materials characterization. As these methods become essential for analyzing complex energy materials and next-generation devices, efficient, standardized workflows are needed to minimize variability and enhance precision. This work highlights our advancements in developing automated processes for sample preparation that integrates machine learning, workflow optimization, and large-scale data acquisition to improve efficiency and scalability in applications such as electrolyzers, photovoltaic cells, and microelectronics. To streamline cross-sectioning and lamella fabrication, we have implemented fully automated workflows that standardize laser ablation and PFIB milling sequences. These workflows incorporate pre-programmed protocols for material removal, alignment, and thinning, reducing user intervention and ensuring consistency across different sample types. Machine learning algorithms further enhance automation by predicting optimal milling strategies and adapting parameters based on material properties and sectioning requirements. This approach significantly improves throughput while maintaining the structural integrity of prepared samples for high-resolution imaging and analysis, including transmission electron microscopy. Beyond sample preparation, our automation platform enables the acquisition of large, high-resolution datasets through serial sectioning, image alignment, and 3D reconstruction. These automated routines facilitate multi-scale characterization, capturing structural and compositional details from the nanoscale to the device level. By reducing variability and increasing efficiency, our automated approach enhances defect analysis, failure diagnostics, and process optimization, accelerating advancements in materials research and device engineering.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Reanalysis and Satellite Cloud Information to Estimate Surface Downward Long-Wave Radiation

The estimation of downward long-wave radiation (DLR) at the surface is very important for the understanding of the Earth’s radiative budget with implications in surface–atmosphere exchanges, climate variability, and global warming. Theoretical radiative transfer and observationally based studies identify the crucial role of clouds in modulating the temporal and spatial variability of DLR. In this study, a new machine learning algorithm that uses multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and the combination of near-surface meteorological data with satellite cloud information is proposed. The new algorithm is compared with the current operational formulation used by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF). Both algorithms use near-surface temperature and dewpoint temperature along with total column water vapor from the latest European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis ERA5 and satellite cloud information from the Meteosat Second Generation. The algorithms are trained and validated using both ECMWF-ERA5 and DLR acquired from 23 ground stations as part of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility. Results show that the MARS algorithm generally improves DLR estimation in comparison with other model estimates, particularly when trained with observations. When considering all the validation data, root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 18.76, 23.55, and 22.08 W·m –2 are obtained for MARS, operational LSA-SAF, and ERA5, respectively. The added value of using the satellite cloud information is accessed by comparing with estimates driven by ERA5 total cloud cover, showing an increase of 17% of the RMSE. The consistency of MARS estimate is also tested against an independent dataset of 52 ground stations (from FLUXNET2015), further supporting the good performance of the proposed model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Allosterically coupled conformational dynamics in solution prepare the sterol transfer protein StarD4 to release its cargo upon interaction with target membranes

Complex mechanisms regulate the cellular distribution of cholesterol, a critical component of eukaryote membranes involved in regulation of membrane protein functions directly and through the physiochemical properties of membranes. StarD4, a member of the steroidogenic acute regulator-related lipid-transfer (StART) domain (StARD)-containing protein family, is a highly efficient sterol-specific transfer protein involved in cholesterol homeostasis. Its mechanism of cargo loading and release remains unknown despite recent insights into the key role of phosphatidylinositol phosphates in modulating its interactions with target membranes. We have used large-scale atomistic Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to study how the dynamics of cholesterol bound to the StarD4 protein can affect interaction with target membranes, and cargo delivery. We identify the two major cholesterol (CHL) binding modes in the hydrophobic pocket of StarD4, one near S136&S147 (the Ser-mode), and another closer to the putative release gate located near W171, R92&Y117 (the Trp-mode). We show that conformational changes of StarD4 associated directly with the transition between these binding modes facilitate the opening of the gate. To understand the dynamics of this connection we apply a machine-learning algorithm for the detection of rare events in MD trajectories (RED), which reveals the structural motifs involved in the opening of a front gate and a back corridor in the StarD4 structure occurring together with the spontaneous transition of CHL from the Ser-mode of binding to the Trp-mode. Further analysis of MD trajectory data with the information-theory based NbIT method reveals the allosteric network connecting the CHL binding site to the functionally important structural components of the gate and corridor. Mutations of residues in the allosteric network are shown to affect the performance of the allosteric connection. These findings outline an allosteric mechanism which prepares the CHL-bound StarD4 to release and deliver the cargo when it is bound to the target membrane.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-J-254: Evaluating the Role of Mid-Treatment and Post-Treatment FDG-PET/CT in Predicting Progression-Free Survival and Distant Metastasis of Anal Cancer Patients Treated with Chemoradiotherapy

Purpose: To evaluate the role of mid-treatment and post-treatment FDG-PET/CT in predicting progression-free survival (PFS) and distant metastasis (DM) of anal cancer patients treated with chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Methods: 17 anal cancer patients treated with CRT were retrospectively studied. The median prescription dose was 56 Gy (range, 50–62.5 Gy). All patients underwent FDG-PET/CT scans before and after CRT. 16 of the 17 patients had an additional FDG-PET/CT image at 3–5 weeks into the treatment (denoted as mid-treatment FDG-PET/CT). 750 features were extracted from these three sets of scans, which included both traditional PET/CT measures (SUVmax, SUVpeak, tumor diameters, etc.) and spatialtemporal PET/CT features (comprehensively quantify a tumor’s FDG uptake intensity and distribution, spatial variation (texture), geometric property and their temporal changes relative to baseline). 26 clinical parameters (age, gender, TNM stage, histology, GTV dose, etc.) were also analyzed. Advanced analytics including methods to select an optimal set of predictors and a model selection engine, which identifies the most accurate machine learning algorithm for predictive analysis was developed. Results: Comparing baseline + mid-treatment PET/CT set to baseline + posttreatment PET/CT set, 14 predictors were selected from each feature group. Same three clinical parameters (tumor size, T stage and whether 5-FU was held during any cycle of chemotherapy) and two traditional measures (pre- CRT SUVmin and SUVmedian) were selected by both predictor groups. Different mix of spatial-temporal PET/CT features was selected. Using the 14 predictors and Naive Bayes, mid-treatment PET/CT set achieved 87.5% accuracy (2 PFS patients misclassified, all local recurrence and DM patients correctly classified). Post-treatment PET/CT set achieved 94.0% accuracy (all PFS and DM patients correctly predicted, 1 local recurrence patient misclassified) with logistic regression, neural network or support vector machine model. Conclusion: Applying radiomics approach to either midtreatment or post-treatment PET/CT could achieve high accuracy in predicting anal cancer treatment outcomes. This work was supported in part by the National Cancer Institute Grant R01CA172638.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate models for development of unconventional shale reservoirs by an integrated numerical approach of hydraulic fracturing, flow and geomechanics, and machine learning

We develop well-completion surrogate models by taking an integrated workflow of hydraulic fracturing, flow, geomechanics, and machine learning simulation. There are three steps in the proposed workflow. First, history-matching processes are conducted with the field data including pumping and production data for characterization. Second, full-physics simulation is performed with various parameters of the field development (e.g., cluster spacing, clusters per stage, pumping rates and times, amount of proppant, and well spacing) to generate multiple simulation results by changing the parameters of the completion design with well-known hydraulic fracturing, reservoir, geomechanics simulators to calculate fracture geometry, reservoir depressurization, induced stress changes. The workflow is demonstrated over a field in the Southern Midland Basin. Here, we take two completion scenarios: a single well case followed by a multi-well case. Finally, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) machine learning algorithm is employed to create surrogate models that can replicate the full-physics simulation results. Furthermore, results show that the trained models applied in the single well and multi-well cases for a particular geological system can provide good accuracy close to those provided by full-physics simulations. Specifically, the site-specific surrogate models can predict fracture parameters (length, height, and surface area) and cumulative production accurately with computational efficiency, suggesting our proposed workflow can be used as a pragmatic tool for expediting the well completion optimization process.

Geomechanics↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Intrinsic Scatter of the Broad Lines–Narrow Line Correlation in Type I AGN

A correlation between the FWHM of the broad Balmer lines and the narrow [O iii]/H{sub β} line ratio was recently applied to the black hole (BH) mass estimation in type II active galactic nuclei (AGN), where only the narrow lines are visible to the observer. The correlation was initially quantified with type I AGN using stacked spectra, in groups automatically created using a machine-learning algorithm. Such an analysis does not provide information about the intrinsic scatter of the correlation. In addition, it does not necessarily reproduce the true underlying correlation, for example, due to the stacking of spectra with different properties. Testing these two issues requires measurements of individual objects. In this work, we perform such a test by fitting the broad and narrow lines for 8302 type I AGN from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Due to the difficulty in reliably measuring the narrow Balmer lines in such objects, which are, in many cases, a small contribution on top of the broad lines, we visually inspect all of the fits and identify 1561 objects with robust measurements. Using these measurements, we find that while a correlation does exist, it shows a large scatter and is not well described by a linear relation. This should be taken into account when using the broad H{sub β} FWHM versus narrow [O iii]/H{sub β} correlation for type II AGN BH mass estimation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗