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DOE OSTI2023

Prepare Ground States of Highly Frustrated Magnetic Clusters on Quantum Computers

Solving challenging problems in physical, chemical, and materials sciences is one of the most promising applications of quantum utility that can be realized on current noisy hardware, considering (i) the direct map (encoding) from the quantum particles and their interactions to the qubits and their entangling gates and (ii) the rapidly improved quantum hardware and advanced error-mitigation techniques. Understanding quantum spin liquid in frustrated magnetic materials is a longstanding challenge in condensed matter physics and the nature of the ground-state phases is highly debated among researchers. Using IBM quantum computers with superconducting qubits, we implemented a variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) algorithm to prepare the ground states of two 12-site cluster approximations of these highly frustrated magnetic materials. The interaction graphs of the two corresponding Hamiltonians are (a) the six-pointed star graph (a unit cell of the kagome lattice) and (b) the cuboctahedral graph (the kagome on a sphere). These are also two instances of Quantum Max Cut problem. With the VQE based on the Hamiltonian variational ansatz acting on a valence bond solid initial trial state, we prepared the ground states and obtained the exact ground energy on simulator and high accuracy on noisy hardware. The deep ansatz necessary to reach the ground state of the cuboctahedral graph indicates that it is a hard instance of Quantum Max Cut.

Wang, Yan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermal stability of anisotropic bonded magnets prepared by additive manufacturing

Abstract In this research, anisotropic NdFeB + SmFeN hybrid and NdFeB bonded magnets are additively printed in a polyphenylene sulfide (PPS) polymer binder. Printed NdFeB + SmFeN PPS bonded magnets displayed excellent magnetic properties ( B r [remanence] = 6.9 kG [0.69 T], H cj [coercivity] = 8.3 kOe [660 kA/m], and BH max [energy product] = 9.9 MGOe [79 kJ/m 3 ]) with superior corrosion resistance and thermal stability. The anisotropic NdFeB bonded magnet shows a high coercivity of 14.6 kOe (1162 kA/m) with a BH max of 8.7 MGOe (69 kJ/m 3 ). The coercivity and remanence temperature coefficients for NdFeB + SmFeN hybrid bonded magnets are −0.10%/K and −0.46%/K, and for NdFeB bonded magnets are −0.14%/K and −0.53%/K in the range of 300–400 K, indicating that the hybrid bonded magnets are thermally stable. The average flux aging loss for hybrid magnets was also determined to be very stable over 2000 h at 448 K (175°C) in air with 2.04% compared to that of NdFeB magnets with 3.62%.

thermal stability↗

DOE OSTI2025

Environmental factors have a greater influence on photosynthetic capacity in C 4 plants than biochemical subtypes or growth forms

Our understanding of how photosynthetic capacity varies among C 4 species and across growth and measurement conditions remains limited. We collated 1696 CO 2 response curves of net CO 2 assimilation rate (A/C i curves) from C 4 species grown and measured at various environmental conditions and used these data to estimate the apparent maximum carboxylation activity of phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase (V pmaxA ) and CO 2 -saturated net photosynthetic rate (A max ), two key parameters describing photosynthetic capacity. We examined how V pmaxA and A max vary with species-specific traits, growth and measurement conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stomatal conductance, not biochemistry, drives low temperature acclimation of photosynthesis in Populus balsamifera , regardless of nitrogen availability

Low temperature thermal acclimation may require adjustments to nitrogen and water use to sustain photosynthesis due to slow enzyme functioning and high-water viscosity. However, understanding of photosynthetic acclimation to temperatures below 11°C is limited. Here, we acclimated Populus balsamifera to 6 °C and 10 °C (6A and 10A, respectively) and provided the trees with either high or low N fertilizer. We measured net CO 2 assimilation rates (A net ), stomatal conductance (g s ), maximum rates of Rubisco carboxylation (V cmax ) and electron transport (J max ), and dark respiration (R d ) at leaf temperatures of 2, 6, 10, 14 and 18 °C, along with leaf N concentrations. The 10A trees had higher A net than the 6A trees at warmer leaf temperatures, which was correlated with higher g s in the 10A trees. The instantaneous temperature responses of V cmax , J max and R d were similar for trees from both acclimation temperatures. While soil N availability increased leaf N concentrations, this had no effect on acclimation of photosynthesis or respiration. Our results indicate that acclimation below 11°C occurred primarily through changes in stomatal conductance, not photosynthetic biochemistry, and was unaffected by short-term N supply. Thermal acclimation of stomatal conductance should therefore be a priority for future carbon cycle model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Direct synthesis and chemical vapor deposition of 2D carbide and nitride MXenes

Two-dimensional transition-metal carbides and nitrides (MXenes) are a large family of materials actively studied for various applications, especially in the field of energy storage. MXenes are commonly synthesized by etching the layered ternary compounds, called MAX phases. We demonstrate a direct synthetic route for scalable and atom-economic synthesis of MXenes, including compounds that have not been synthesized from MAX phases, by the reactions of metals and metal halides with graphite, methane, or nitrogen. The direct synthesis enables chemical vapor deposition growth of MXene carpets and complex spherulite-like morphologies that form through buckling and release of MXene carpet to expose fresh surface for further reaction. The directly synthesized MXenes showed excellent energy storage capacity for lithium-ion intercalation.

Wang, Di↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accelerated Constrained Sparse Tensor Factorization on Massively Parallel Architectures

This study presents the first constrained sparse tensor factorization (cSTF) framework that optimizes and fully offloads computation to massively parallel GPU architectures, and the first performance characterization of cSTF on GPU architectures. In contrast to prior work on tensor factorization, where the matricized tensor times Khatri-Rao product (MTTKRP) is the primary performance bottleneck, our systematic analysis of the cSTF algorithm on GPUs reveals that adding constraints creates an additional bottleneck in the update operation for many real-world sparse tensors. While executing the update operation on the GPU brings significant speedup over its CPU counterpart, it remains a significant bottleneck. To further accelerate the update operation, we propose cuADMM, a new update algorithm that leverages algorithmic and code optimization strategies to minimize both computation and data movement on GPUs. As a result, our framework delivers significantly improved performance compared to prior state-of-the-art. On 10 real-world sparse tensors, our framework achieves geometric mean speedup of 5.1 × (max 41.59 ×) and 7.01 × (max 58.05 ×) on the NIVIDA A100 and H100 GPUs, respectively, over the state-of-the-art SPLATT library running on a 26-core Intel Ice Lake Xeon CPU.

Soh, Yongseok↗

DOE OSTI2022

Correlating Crystallography, Magnetism, and Electronic Structure Across Anhysteretic First-Order Phase Transition in Pr 2 In

Here, temperature-dependent powder X-ray diffraction and magnetization measurements of Pr 2 In conclusively prove that the unusual anhysteretic first-order paramagnetic-ferromagnetic phase transition in the compound is related to concurrent changes in both the magnetic and crystallographic lattices. At the same time, the hexagonal Ni 2 In-type structure is stable at least between 6 and 298 K, including at T C = ~57 K. From the density functional theory calculations, the electronic structure of the compound is extraordinarily sensitive to minor changes in lattice parameters that occur across the phase transition, revealing the origin of strong magnetoelastic coupling. In the vicinity of T C , the maximum entropy change, ΔS Max = -16 J Kg -1 K -1 induced by a moderate magnetic field change of 20 kOe (ΔS Max = -20 J Kg -1 K -1 for 50 kOe magnetic field change) is comparable to other known potentially functional materials demonstrating large cryogenic magnetocaloric effect.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Caldera Infrastructure Charge Module (ICM)

Caldera ICM is part of Caldera software platform, a suite of collective, open-source tools that was developed to improve the state of the art in modeling the impacts of Electric Vehicle (EV) charging on the grid. The foundation of Caldera ICM is it’s first-of-its-kind library of high-fidelity charging models for a wide variety of vehicles, validated by test data under a range of operating conditions. The charging models are used to accurately model the EV charging on an electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) – also known as a charger. ICM uses as inputs, the EV characteristics such as battery size, battery chemistry (i.e. NMC, LTO), watt hour per mile, inverter efficiency and max charge rate; as well as EVSE characteristics such as max current and supply equipment type (i.e. L2 vs XFC). Using these inputs Caldera ICM creates an uncontrolled charging profile curve for each compatible EV-EVSE pair. These charge profiles can be used stand alone to estimate charge duration given start State Of Charge (SOC) and end SOC or charge energy size given start SOC and charge duration. In Caldera Grid, another tool in the Caldera software platform, these charge profiles are used to represent EV charging as a load on the grid using charge event data such as EV type, SE type, start SOC, final SOC, park start time and park end time. ICM currently supports energy shifting Smart Charge Management (SCM) strategies such as "Time Of Use (TOU) immediate”, “TOU random” and “random start” by delaying the charge to start at a preferable time with respect to the strategy and, one voltage support SCM strategy named autonomous voltage control strategy by providing reactive power back to the electric grid.

Sundarrajan, ManojKumar Cebol↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dependence of Convective Cloud Microphysical Properties on Environmental Conditions during the TRACER and ESCAPE Field Campaigns: A Synergistic Approach of Observations, Machine Learning and Parcel Models

The sensitivity of convective clouds to aerosols and their interactions with environment, combined with limited observational constraints in parameterizations, introduces significant uncertainties in atmospheric models. Here, this study investigates the dependence of convective cloud microphysical properties on environmental conditions using a synergistic approach that combines unique observations from the TRACER and ESCAPE field campaigns, machine learning techniques, and parcel model simulations with a super-droplet microphysics scheme. A random forest algorithm identifies in-situ vertical velocity (w), temperature (T), and surface fine-mode aerosol mass concentration as the three most important environmental conditions influencing cloud properties including liquid water content (LWC), number concentration for particles with D max < 50 μm (N c ,<50), 50 μm ≤ D max ≤ 3000 μm (N c,50–3000 ), and droplet effective diameter (D e ). Results show that LWC, N c,<50 , and N c,50–3000 significantly increase with w in updrafts. Across w bins, as T decreases, LWC, D e , and N c,50–3000 increase, while N c,<50 decreases, which are closely linked to the distance above cloud bases. Warmer cloud bases yield higher LWC, greater N c,50–3000 , and smaller N c,<50 , while polluted environments produce greater N c,<50 . Parcel model simulations successfully replicate these observed dependencies. The simulation results indicate that warmer cloud bases enhance condensation generating larger droplets, and differences in droplet sizes are then amplified through collision-coalescence, resulting in a greater N c,50–3000 . Polluted conditions result in a greater N c,<50 primarily due to enhanced cloud condensation nuclei activation despite increased collision-coalescence rates compared to pristine conditions. This study provides observed quantitative patterns characterizing cloud microphysical properties as a function of key environmental parameters, offering valuable constraints for improving physics parameterizations and numerical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

West African Monsoon System’s Responses to Global Ocean–Regional Atmosphere Coupling

This study explores the added value (AV) of a regional Earth system model (ESM) compared to an atmosphere-only regional climate model (RCM) in simulating West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall. The primary goals are to foster discussions on the suitability of coupled RCMs for WAM projections and deepen our understanding of ocean–atmosphere coupling’s influence on the WAM system. The study employs results from dynamical downscaling of the ERA-Interim reanalysis and Max Plank Institute ESM, low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR), by two RCMs, atmosphere only (REMO) and REMO coupled with Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) (ROM), at ~25-km horizontal resolution. Results show that in regions distant from coupling domain boundaries such as West Africa (WA), constraint conditions from ERA-Interim are more beneficial than coupling effects. REMO, reliant on oceanic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from observations and influenced by ERA-Interim, is biased under coupling conditions, although coupling offers potential advantages in representing heat and mass fluxes. Contrastingly, as intended, coupling improves SSTs and monsoon fluxes’ relationships under ESM-forced conditions. In this latter case, the coupling features a dipole-like spatial structure of AV, improving precipitation over the Guinea Coast but degrading precipitation over half of the Sahel. Our extensive examination of physical processes and mechanisms underpinning the WAM system supports the plausibility of AV. Additionally, we found that the monsoonal dynamics over the ocean respond to convective activity, with the Sahara–Sahel surface temperature gradient serving as the maintenance mechanism. While further efforts are needed to enhance the coupled RCM, we advocate for its use in the context of WAM rainfall forecasts and projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Immediate Impacts of Soybean Cover Crop on Bacterial Community Composition and Diversity in Soil Under Long-Term Saccharum Monoculture

Saccharum yield decline results from long-term monoculture practices. Changes in cropping management can improve soil health and productivity. Below-ground bacterial community diversity and composition across soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr) cover crop, Saccharum monoculture (30+ year) and fallowed soil were determined. Near full length (~1,400 base pairs) of 16S rRNA gene sequences were extracted from the rhizospheres of sugarcane and soybean and fallowed soil were compared. Higher soil bacterial diversity was observed in the soybean cover crop than sugarcane monoculture across all measured indices (observed operationational taxonomic units, Chao1, Shannon, reciprocal Simpson and Jackknife). Acidocateria, Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes and Planctomycetes were the most abundant bacterial phyla across the treatments. Indicator species analysis identified nine indicator phyla. Planctomycetes, Armatimonadetes and candidate phylum FBP were associated with soybean; Proteobacteria and Firmicutes were linked with sugarcane and Gemmatimonadetes, Nitrospirae, Rokubacteria and unclassified bacteria were associated with fallowed soil. Non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis showed distinct groupings of bacterial operational taxonomic units (97% identity) according to management system (soybean, sugarcane or fallow) indicating compositional differences among treatments. This is confirmed by the results of the multi-response permutation procedures (A = 0.541, p = 0.00045716). No correlation between soil parameters and bacterial community structure was observed according to Mantel test (r = 211865, p = 0.14). Use of soybean cover-crop fostered bacterial diversity and altered community structure. This indicates cover crops could have a restorative effect and potentially promote sustainability in long-term Saccharum production systems.

Field Data↗

DOE OSTI2020

GPU Lifetimes on Titan Supercomputer: Survival Analysis and Reliability

George Ostrouchov, Don Maxwell, Rizwan Ashraf, Mallikarjun Shankar, and James Rogers. 2020. GPU Lifetimes on Titan Supercomputer: Survival Analysis and Reliability. In Proceedings of the International Conference for High Performance Computing, Networking, Storage and Analysis (SC '20). Association for Computing Machinery, New York, NY, USA. Data and code for SC20 paper about Titan GPU reliability analysis: https://github.com/olcf/TitanGPULife. Includes R code to generate graphics for paper and additional analyses. See code/README for instructions. Includes original Titan GPU reliability data on over 100,000 collective hours of operation: data/titan.gpu.history.txt - history data, data/titan.service.txt - service nodes for exclusion. Includes output data files produced by code/TitanGPUmodel.Rmd: data/gc_full.csv - cleaned up data (see paper and R code); data/gc_summary_loc.csv - one record per GPU (variables: SN, time, nlife, nloc, last, col, row, cage, slot, node, max_loc_events, time_max_loc, dbe, dbe_loc, otb, otb_loc, out, batch, days, years, dead, dead_otb, dead_dbe) (see paper and R code). Includes .Rmd analysis document as TitanGPUmode.html. Includes Python code to process data/gc_full.csv into graphics from time-between-failure analyses: See code/tbf-analyses/README for instructions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Design and execution of a verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification plan for a numerical model of left ventricular flow after LVAD implantation

Left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) are implantable pumps that act as a life support therapy for patients with severe heart failure. Despite improving the survival rate, LVAD therapy can carry major complications. Particularly, the flow distortion introduced by the LVAD in the left ventricle (LV) may induce thrombus formation. While previous works have used numerical models to study the impact of multiple variables in the intra-LV stagnation regions, a comprehensive validation analysis has never been executed. The main goal of this work is to present a model of the LV-LVAD system and to design and follow a verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) plan based on the ASME V&V40 and V&V20 standards to ensure credible predictions. The experiment used to validate the simulation is the SDSU cardiac simulator, a bench mock-up of the cardiovascular system that allows mimicking multiple operation conditions for the heart-LVAD system. The numerical model is based on Alya, the BSC’s in-house platform for numerical modelling. Alya solves the Navier-Stokes equation with an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation in a deformable ventricle and includes pressure-driven valves, a 0D Windkessel model for the arterial output and a LVAD boundary condition modeled through a dynamic pressure-flow performance curve. The designed VVUQ plan involves: (a) a risk analysis and the associated credibility goals; (b) a verification stage to ensure correctness in the numerical solution procedure; (c) a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact of the inputs on the four quantities of interest (QoIs) (average aortic root flow $Q^{avg}_{Ao}$, maximum aortic root flow $Q^{max}_{Ao}$, average LVAD flow $Q^{avg}_{VAD}$, and maximum LVAD flow $Q^{max}_{VAD}$; (d) an uncertainty quantification using six validation experiments that include extreme operating conditions. Numerical code verification tests ensured correctness of the solution procedure and numerical calculation verification showed a grid convergence index (GCI)95% <3.3%. The total Sobol indices obtained during the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the ejection fraction, the heart rate, and the pump performance curve coefficients are the most impactful inputs for the analysed QoIs. The Minkowski norm is used as validation metric for the uncertainty quantification. It shows that the midpoint cases have more accurate results when compared to the extreme cases. The total computational cost of the simulations was above 100 [core-years] executed in around three weeks time span in Marenostrum IV supercomputer. This work details a novel numerical model for the LV-LVAD system, that is supported by the design and execution of a VVUQ plan created following recognised international standards. We present a methodology demonstrating that stringent VVUQ according to ASME standards is feasible but computationally expensive.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Extraction of the electron excess temperature in terahertz quantum cascade lasers from laser characteristics

Abstract We propose a method to extract the upper laser level’s (ULL’s) excess electronic temperature from the analysis of the maximum light output power ( P max ) and current dynamic range Δ J d = ( J max − J th ) of terahertz quantum cascade lasers (THz QCLs). We validated this method, both through simulation and experiment, by applying it on THz QCLs supporting a clean three-level system. Detailed knowledge of electronic excess temperatures is of utmost importance in order to achieve high temperature performance of THz QCLs. Our method is simple and can be easily implemented, meaning an extraction of the excess electron temperature can be achieved without intensive experimental effort. This knowledge should pave the way toward improvement of the temperature performance of THz QCLs beyond the state-of-the-art.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dataset for 'Ombadi et al. (2023). A warming-induced reduction in snow fraction amplifies rainfall extremes, Nature'

This package contains the main codes, sample input data and main result files to reproduce the analysis and results presented in the article: “Ombadi et al. (2023), A warming-induced reduction in snow fraction amplifies rainfall extremes, Nature”. The folder consists of the following: (1) “Raw data”: a folder that contains sample input data which is used in some of the codes for demonstration purposes. It also contains data that was not pre-processed such as Elevation data; (2) “Results”: this folder contains files of the main results presented in the paper including: “Annual-Max-Series”, “Change-rainfall-extremes”, “Change-snow-fraction”, “Warming levels_By scenario_model_year” and “Masks”. Description of these folders is detailed in the "Readme.rtf" file; (3) Python jupyter notebooks (Extract_Annual Max Series (AMS).ipynb, Elevation-dependent amplification of rainfall extremes.ipynb, Sensitivity_to_global_warming.ipynb) demonstrate the main steps of analysis. Further description of those notebooks is provided in the "Readme.rtf" file; (4) R code for extreme value analysis (Extreme_Value_Analysis.R). The sample and pre-processed dataset in "Raw data" is obtained from publicly available repositories of CMIP6 and ERA5 datasets; see Methods for more detail. This research was supported by Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the US Department of Energy under contract no. DE-AC02-05CH11231 for the CASCADE Scientific Focus (funded by the Regional and Global Model Analysis Program area within the Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program) and the iNAIADS Early Career Research Project (funded by the Environmental Systems Science program).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data for Photosynthetic responses to temperature across the tropics: a meta-analytic approach

This data package contains raw data, data output, and code of photosynthetic temperature response curves from tropical forests. Data are used in "Photosynthetic responses to temperature across the tropics: a meta-analytic approach". The research investigates how photosynthetic optimum temperatures and shapes of photosynthetic temperature response curves varies across tropical forest climates and growth conditions. Growth climate variables include mean annual temperature, max and max temperature, diurnal temperature range, and aridity index. Meta-analysis combines 18 datasets with representation from Africa, Oceana, North American, and South America. Growth conditions analyzed considers deciduousness, successional status, light conditions, and whether plants are grown in situ or ex situ. All files, except for the raw datafile (Tropical_MetaAnalysis_Master_3.8.22_Edit.csv), have been processed using R code, which is provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

One-shot holography

Following the work of [J. High Energy Phys. 04, 062 (2021)], we define a generally covariant max-entanglement wedge of a boundary region B, which we conjecture to be the bulk region reconstructible from B. We similarly define a covariant min-entanglement wedge, which we conjecture to be the bulk region that can influence the state on B. We prove that the min- and max-entanglement wedges obey various properties necessary for this conjecture, such as nesting, inclusion of the causal wedge, and a reduction to the usual quantum extremal surface prescription in the appropriate special cases. These proofs rely on one-shot versions of the (restricted) quantum focusing conjecture (QFC) that we conjecture to hold. We argue that these QFCs imply a one-shot generalized second law (GSL) and quantum Bousso bound. Moreover, in a particular semiclassical limit we prove this one-shot GSL directly using algebraic techniques. Finally, in order to derive our results, we extend both the frameworks of one-shot quantum Shannon theory and state-specific reconstruction to finite-dimensional von Neumann algebras, allowing nontrivial centers.

Akers, Chris (ORCID:0000000227929827)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Risk Importance Ranking of Fire Data Parameters to Enhance Fire PRA Model Realism

Fire is historically and analytically a significant contributor to nuclear power plant risk. The level of fire risk and the methods, tools and data for modeling this risk is highly debated by experts. One area of debate is the input data used in fire modeling and how to deal with this data’s high uncertainty. This report outlines initial work performed for determining the key parameters causing this uncertainty and how it propagates into nuclear power plant models. This research paves the way for the development of methods to reduce fire data uncertainty used in modeling. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has mandated that nuclear power plants perform fire risk modeling. However, there are several issues with the current risk modeling implementation that affect the results. Approved modeling methods can be overly conservative and often do not match plant experience. Also, the data used in the modeling can have high uncertainties and is influenced by expert judgement. To evaluate input data uncertainty, researchers performed an initial review of several fire experiments done at Sandia National Laboratories. Uncertainties for fire data can come from many sources, such as experiment design constraints, environmental conditions, or other plant-specific aspects. There are many different significant and insignificant parameters driving the uncertainty. Additionally, the uncertainty of the different input data used in the fire modeling could have a significant or insignificant effect on the entire plant risk. A four-step methodology was developed to perform Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment Importance Ranking. A demonstration case using these steps was set up and three of the four steps were completed in fiscal year (FY) 2019 and the fourth step done FY 2020. These steps are: 1. The qualitative analysis of potential sources was conducted with the following items identified for the demonstration. • Maximum heat release rate • Time to maximum heat release rate • Duration of max heat release rate • Time to decay • Thermal conductivity of concrete • Specific heat of concrete • Density of concrete • Cable jacket thickness 2. A quantitative characterization of dominant sources of uncertainty was performed. A list of distributions and determined values of the dominant sources is shown in Appendix A. 3. A quantitative screening of the potential sources of uncertainty using Morris Elementary Effects Analysis was completed. An experimental model using the physics-based fire modeling tool Fire Dynamics Simulator was developed and coupled with the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment. The Morris analysis identified at least two parameters that can be eliminated as significant contributors (specific heat of concrete and cable jacket thickness). 4. Global importance measure (Global IM) analysis to generate a comprehensive ranking based on their influence on the plant risk. In this research, a moment-independent Global IM is used since it can address (a) uncertainty in the input parameters of the fire model, (b) uncertainty in the risk outputs, and (c) non-linearity and interactions among input parameters in the fire model, more accurately than the correlation-based and variance-based global methods. The observations from the research showed that, depending on the initial and boundary conditions of the fire scenarios, fire-induced damage could have a very small probability and could be dominated by the tail of the uncertainty distribution; hence, the accuracy of the correlation-based and variance-based methods is questionable. The moment-independent Global IM analysis in this research provides a better understanding of how experimental uncertainty data affects industry’s plant models and where improvements in that data will have the largest benefit for improving fire modeling accuracy in causing core damage. Among the five unscreened parameters obtained from the Morris EE analysis, the Global IM analysis results for the case study indicated that max heat release rate and fire location are the most important parameters. The report also outlines benefits of using a unified computational platform that integrates the underlying simulations (e.g., a fire progression model), quantitative screening (using the Morris EE method), and the Global IM analysis. A unified platform can (i) facilitate the ranking of input parameters considering multiple key fire scenarios simultaneously, rather than considering one scenario at a time, (ii) contribute to more explicit and accurate treatment of dependencies at multiple levels of Fire PRA, (iii) facilitate the sampling-based uncertainty quantification for Fire PRA, and (iv) help generating both “industry-wide” and "plant-specific" ranking of uncertainty sources in Fire PRA. Future research should be done to include additional parameters such as detection/suppression or cable fire spread. Adding a PRA software such as SAPHIRE to the RAVEN platform would help with plant model integration and improve treatment of fire-induced dependency. The I-PRA risk importance ranking methodology offered in this report can provide valuable information for efficiently (a) enhancing the realism of Fire PRA for existing plants and (b) supporting the development of Dynamic Fire PRA for advanced reactors and new plants.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗