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Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

This paper describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness relationship for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes If the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980's in order to refine our understanding of intra-annual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global 1o gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: degree days (growing/chilling), annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the geographic variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same annual climate index values from the previous year explains no substantial additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes is closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from lo grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI for several different years at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes are not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude zones, mixed and disturbed vegetation types, and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Potter, C. S.↗

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

This study describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness function for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes of the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980s in order to refine our empirical understanding of intraannual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global l(sup o) gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: growing degree days, annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same climate index values from the previous year explained no significant additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes was closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from l(sup o) grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes were not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude ecosystems and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Potter, C. S.↗

Validation of the Pulmonary Function System for Use on the International Space Station

Aerobic deconditioning occurs during long duration space flight despite the use of exercise countermeasures (Convertino, 1996). As a part of International Space Station (ISS) medical operations, periodic tests designed to estimate aerobic capacity are performed to track changes in aerobic fitness and to determine the effectiveness of exercise countermeasures. These tests are performed prior to, during, and after missions of greater than 30 days in duration. Crewmembers selected for missions aboard the ISS perform a graded exercise test on a cycle ergometer approximately 270 days prior to their scheduled launch date in order to measure peak oxygen consumption (VO2PK) and peak heart rate (HRpk). Approximately 30 to 45 days prior to launch, crewmembers perform a submaximal cycle ergometer test at work rates set to elicit 25, 50 and 75% of their pre-flight VO2PK. This test, known as the Periodic Fitness Evaluation (PFE), serves as a baseline measure to which subsequent in-and post-flight exercise tests are compared. While onboard the ISS, crewmembers are normally scheduled to perform the PFE beginning with flight day (FD) 14 and every 30 days thereafter. The PFE is also conducted 5 and 30 days following flight. Using PFE data, aerobic fitness is estimated by quantifying the VO2 vs. HR relationship using linear regression and calculating the VO2 that would occur at the crewmember s previously measured HRpk. Currently, for data collected during flight, this technique assumes that the pre- vs. in-flight oxygen consumption per given cycle workload is similar. However, the validity of this assumption is based upon a sparse amount of data collected during the Skylab era (Michel, et al. 1977). The method of using heart rate and cycle ergometer work rates has been used to estimate aerobic fitness in normal gravity (Astrand and Ryhming, 1954; Lee, 1993). Due to spaceflight induced physiological alterations, such as shifts in extracellular fluid (e.g. plasma) volume, this method may not be valid during space flight. In addition, the ergometer onboard ISS is vibration-isolated and moves with the astronaut s application of force into the pedals. The effect of this movement on the VO2 of cycle exercise on ISS has not been quantified.

McCleary, Frank A.↗

Aeroelastic Model Structure Computation for Envelope Expansion

Structure detection is a procedure for selecting a subset of candidate terms, from a full model description, that best describes the observed output. This is a necessary procedure to compute an efficient system description which may afford greater insight into the functionality of the system or a simpler controller design. Structure computation as a tool for black-box modeling may be of critical importance in the development of robust, parsimonious models for the flight-test community. Moreover, this approach may lead to efficient strategies for rapid envelope expansion that may save significant development time and costs. In this study, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) technique is investigated for computing efficient model descriptions of non-linear aeroelastic systems. The LASSO minimises the residual sum of squares with the addition of an l(Sub 1) penalty term on the parameter vector of the traditional l(sub 2) minimisation problem. Its use for structure detection is a natural extension of this constrained minimisation approach to pseudo-linear regression problems which produces some model parameters that are exactly zero and, therefore, yields a parsimonious system description. Applicability of this technique for model structure computation for the F/A-18 (McDonnell Douglas, now The Boeing Company, Chicago, Illinois) Active Aeroelastic Wing project using flight test data is shown for several flight conditions (Mach numbers) by identifying a parsimonious system description with a high percent fit for cross-validated data.

Kukreja, Sunil L.↗

String resistance detector

Method and system are disclosed for determining individual string resistance in a network of strings when the current through a parallel connected string is unknown and when the voltage across a series connected string is unknown. The method/system of the invention involves connecting one or more frequency-varying impedance components with known electrical characteristics to each string and applying a frequency-varying input signal to the network of strings. The frequency-varying impedance components may be one or more capacitors, inductors, or both, and are selected so that each string is uniquely identifiable in the output signal resulting from the frequency-varying input signal. Numerical methods, such as non-linear regression, may then be used to resolve the resistance associated with each string.

Hall, A. Daniel↗

Cloud Radiative Forcing at the ARM Climate Research Facility: Technique, Validation, and Comparison to Satellite-derived Diagnostic Quantities - Part 1

It has been hypothesized that continuous ground-based remote sensing measurements from active and passive remote sensors combined with regular soundings of the atmospheric thermodynamic structure can be combined to describe the effects of clouds on the clear sky radiation fluxes. We critically test that hypothesis in this paper and a companion paper (Part II). Using data collected at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, we explore an analysis methodology that results in the characterization of the physical state of the atmospheric profile at time resolutions of five minutes and vertical resolutions of 90 m. The description includes thermodynamics and water vapor profile information derived by merging radiosonde soundings with ground-based data, and continues through specification of the cloud layer occurrence and microphysical and radiative properties derived from retrieval algorithms and parameterizations. The description of the atmospheric physical state includes a calculation of the infrared and clear and cloudy sky solar flux profiles. Validation of the methodology is provided by comparing the calculated fluxes with top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface flux measurements and by comparing the total column optical depths to independently derived estimates. We find over a 1-year period of comparison in overcast uniform skies, that the calculations are strongly correlated to measurements with biases in the flux quantities at the surface and TOA of less than 10% and median fractional errors ranging from 20% to as low as 2%. In the optical depth comparison for uniform overcast skies during the year 2000 where the optical depth varies over 3 orders of magnitude we find a mean positive bias of 46% with a median bias of less than 10% and a 0.89 correlation coefficient. The slope of the linear regression line for the optical depth comparison is 0.86 with a normal deviation of 20% about this line. In addition to a case study where we examine the cloud radiative effects at the TOA, surface and atmosphere by a middle latitude synoptic-scale cyclone, we examine the cloud top pressure and optical depth retrievals of ISCCP and LBTM over a period of 1 year. Using overcast period from the year 2000, we find that the satellite algorithms tend to bias cloud tops into the middle troposphere and underestimate optical depth in high optical depth events (greater than 100) by as much as a factor of 2.

Mace, Gerald G.↗

Ozone Observations by the Gas and Aerosol Measurement Sensor during SOLVE II

The Gas and Aerosol Measurement Sensor (GAMS) was deployed aboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the second SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE II). GAMS acquired line-of-sight (LOS) direct solar irradiance spectra during the sunlit portions of ten science flights of the DC-8 between 12 January and 4 February 2003. Differential line-of-sight (DLOS) optical depth spectra are produced from the GAMS raw solar irradiance spectra. Then, DLOS ozone number densities are retrieved from the GAMS spectra using a multiple linear regression spectral fitting technique. Both the DLOS optical depth spectra and retrieved ozone data are compared with coincident measurements from two other solar instruments aboard the DC-8 platform to demonstrate the robustness and stability of the GAMS data. The GAMS ozone measurements are then utilized to evaluate the quality of the Wulf band ozone cross sections, a critical component of the SAGE III aerosol, water vapor, and temperature/pressure retrievals. Results suggest the ozone cross section compilation of Shettle and Anderson currently used operationally in SAGE III data processing may be in error by as much as 10-20% in theWulf bands, and their lack of reported temperature dependence is a significant deficiency. A second, more recent, cross section database compiled for the SCIAMACHY satellite mission appears to be of much better quality in the Wulf bands, but still may have errors as large as 5% near the Wulf band absorption peaks, which is slightly larger than their stated uncertainty. Additional laboratory measurements of the Wulf band cross sections should be pursued to further reduce their uncertainty and better quantify their temperature dependence.

Pitts, M. C.↗

Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

This report describes work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in predicting peak winds at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron requested the AMU develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network , Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) surface observations, and CCAFS sounding s from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created mul tiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence , the temperature inversion depth and strength, wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

Vivid Motor Imagery as an Adaptation Method for Head Turns on a Short-Arm Centrifuge

Artificial gravity (AG) has been proposed as a potential countermeasure to the debilitating physiological effects of long duration space flight. The most economical means of implementing AG may be through the use of a short-radius (2m or less) centrifuge. For such a device to produce gravitational forces comparable to those on earth requires rotation rates in excess of 20 revolutions per minute (rpm). Head turns made out of the plane of rotation at these rates, as may be necessary if exercise is combined with AG, result in cross-coupled stimuli (CCS) that cause adverse side effects including motion sickness, illusory sensations of motion, and inappropriate eye movements. Recent studies indicate that people can adapt to CCS and reduce these side effects by making multiple head turns during centrifuge sessions conducted over consecutive days. However, about 25% of the volunteers for these studies have difficulty tolerating the CCS adaptation paradigm and often drop out due to motion sickness symptoms. The goal of this investigation was to determine whether vivid motor imagery could be used as a pseudostimulus for adapting subjects to this unique environment. Twenty four healthy human subjects (14 males, 10 females), ranging in age from 21 to 48 years (mean 33, sd 7 years) took part in this study. The experimental stimuli were produced using the NASA JSC short-arm centrifuge (SAC). Subjects were oriented supinely on this device with the nose pointed toward the ceiling and head centered on the axis of rotation. Thus, centrifuge rotation was in the body roll plane. After ramp-up the SAC rotated clockwise at a constant rate of 23 rpm, producing a centrifugal force of approximately 1 g at the feet. Semicircular canal CCS were produced by having subjects make yaw head turns from the nose up (NU) position to the right ear down (RED) position and from RED to NU. Each head turn was completed in about one second, and a 30 second recovery period separated consecutive head movements. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three groups (n=8 per group): physical adapters (PA), mental adapters (MA), or a control group (CG). Each subject participated in a one hour test session on each of three consecutive days. Each test session consisted of an initial (preadaptation) period during which the subject performed six CCS maneuvers in the dark, followed by an adaptation period with internal lighting on the centrifuge, and a final (postadaptation) period during which six more CCS maneuvers were performed in the dark. For the PA group, the adaptation period consisted of performing 30 additional CCS maneuvers in the light. For the MA and CG group the centrifuge was ramped down to 0 rpm after the pre-adaptation period and ramped back up to 23 rpm before the post-adaptation period. For the both of these groups, the adaptation period consisted of making 30 CCS maneuvers in the light with the centrifuge stationary (so no cross-coupling occurred). MA group subjects were instructed to vividly imagine the provocative sensations produced by the preadaptation CCS maneuvers in terms of magnitude, duration, and direction of illusory body tilt, as well as any accompanying levels of motion sickness. CG group subjects were asked to answer low imagery content questions (trivial pursuit) during each adaptation period head turn. During the 30 second recovery following each head turn, psychophysical data were collected including self reports of motion sickness, magnitude and direction estimates of illusory body tilt, and the overall duration of these sensations. A multilevel mixed effects linear regression analysis performed on all response variables indicated that all three groups experienced some psychophysical adaptation across the three test sessions. For illusory tilt magnitude, the PA group exhibited the most overall adaptation, followed by the MA group, and the CG group. The slopes of these adaptation trajectories by group over day were significantly diffent from one another. For the perceived duration of sensations, the CG group again exhibited the least amount of adaptation. However, the rates of adaptation of the PA and the MA groups were indistinguishable, suggesting that the imagined pseudostimulus appeared to be just as effective a means of adaptation as the actual stimulus. The MA group's rate of adaptation to motion sickness symptoms was also comparable to the PA group. The use of vivid motor imagery may be an effective method for adapting to the illusory sensations and motion sickness symptoms produced by cross-coupled stimuli. For space-based AG applications, this technique may prove quite useful in retaining astronauts considered highly susceptible to motion sickness as it reduces the number of actual CCS required to attain adaptation.

Newby, N. J.↗

Parathyroid Hormone Levels and Cognition

Hyperparathyroidism is a well-recognized cause of impaired cognition due to hypercalcemia. However, recent studies have suggested that perhaps parathyroid hormone itself plays a role in cognition, especially executive dysfunction. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship of parathyroid hormone levels in a study cohort of elders with impaied cognition. Methods: Sixty community-living adults, 65 years of age and older, reported to Adult Protective Services for self-neglect and 55 controls matched (on age, ethnicity, gender and socio-economic status) consented and participated in this study. The research team conducted in-home comprehensive geriatric assessments which included the Mini-mental state exam (MMSE), the 15-item geriatric depression scale (GDS) , the Wolf-Klein clock test and a comprehensive nutritional panel, which included parathyroid hormone and ionized calcium. Students t tests and linear regression analyses were performed to assess for bivariate associations. Results: Self-neglecters (M = 73.73, sd=48.4) had significantly higher PTH levels compared to controls (M =47.59, sd=28.7; t=3.59, df=98.94, p<.01). There was no significant group difference in ionized calcium levels. Overall, PTH was correlated with the MMSE (r=-.323, p=.001). Individual regression analyses revealed a statistically significant correlation between PTH and MMSE in the self-neglect group (r=-.298, p=.024) and this remained significant after controlling for ionized calcium levels in the regression. No significant associations were revealed in the control group or among any of the other cognitive measures. Conclusion: Parathyroid hormone may be associated with cognitive performance.

Burnett, J.↗

On the Period-Amplitude and Amplitude-Period Relationships

Examined are Period-Amplitude and Amplitude-Period relationships based on the cyclic behavior of the 12-month moving averages of monthly mean sunspot numbers for cycles 0.23, both in terms of Fisher's exact tests for 2x2 contingency tables and linear regression analyses. Concerning the Period-Amplitude relationship (same cycle), because cycle 23's maximum amplitude is known to be 120.8, the inferred regressions (90-percent prediction intervals) suggest that its period will be 131 +/- 24 months (using all cycles) or 131 +/- 18 months (ignoring cycles 2 and 4, which have the extremes of period, 108 and 164 months, respectively). Because cycle 23 has already persisted for 142 months (May 1996 through February 2008), based on the latter prediction, it should end before September 2008. Concerning the Amplitude-Period relationship (following cycle maximum amplitude versus preceding cycle period), because cycle 23's period is known to be at least 142 months, the inferred regressions (90-percent prediction intervals) suggest that cycle 24's maximum amplitude will be about less than or equal to 96.1 +/- 55.0 (using all cycle pairs) or less than or equal to 91.0 +/- 36.7 (ignoring statistical outlier cycle pairs). Hence, cycle 24's maximum amplitude is expected to be less than 151, perhaps even less than 128, unless cycle pair 23/24 proves to be a statistical outlier.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Gender-related Changes in Dorsal Hand and Foot Vein Function Following 60 Days of Head Down Bed Rest

It is well known that female astronauts are more likely to experience post-flight orthostatic hypotension and presyncope compared to male astronauts. It has been suggested that the disproportionally higher incidence of presyncope (83% of female vs. 20% male crewmembers) may be due to sex-related differences in vascular function between the upper and lower limbs. However, much of this evidence is specific to changes in resistance vessels. Given that more than 70% of the circulating blood volume resides in compliance vessels, it is conceivable that even small changes in venous function may contribute to post-flight orthostatic hypotension. In spite of this, little is currently known regarding the influence of microgravity exposure on venous function between males and females. PURPOSE: To determine the influence of 60 days of HDBR on dorsal foot and hand vein function between healthy males (M) and females (F). METHODS: Using 2-D ultrasound, dorsal hand and foot vein diameter responses to intravenous infusions phenylephrine (PE), acetylcholine (ACh), and nitroglycerine (NTG) were determined in 26 adults; 10 females (age:37 +/- 2 yr ) and 16 males (age:34 +/- 2 yr ). Changes in venous function were calculated as the difference between diameter at baseline and following each venoactive drug. Differences in venous function between limb and sexes across HDBR were determined using mixed-effects linear regression. RESULTS: In response to 60 days of HDBR, the change in venousconstrictor response to PE in the dorsal hand veins was not significantly different between M and F. Interestingly, the change in constrictor response in the dorsal foot veins (compared to pre HDBR) was approximately 30% greater in the F, whereas the constrictor response was approximately 45% less in the M (p=0.026). HDBR had no influence on the change in dilator response to ACh, or NTG between M and F and between vascular beds. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate that 60 days of HDBR contributes to sex-related differences in venous function. Importantly, the changes are specific to dorsal foot veins and do not appear to be related to changes in endothelial or smooth muscle function. Previous data from our laboratory indicate that females have an impaired sympathetic response following HDBR. However, the results from the current investigation imply that F maintain the ability to respond to sympathetic stimulation but may not be able to adequately activate a proper response following HDBR.

Westby, Christian M.↗

Roles of Engineering Correlations in Hypersonic Entry Boundary Layer Transition Prediction

Efforts to design and operate hypersonic entry vehicles are constrained by many considerations that involve all aspects of an entry vehicle system. One of the more significant physical phenomenon that affect entry trajectory and thermal protection system design is the occurrence of boundary layer transition from a laminar to turbulent state. During the Space Shuttle Return To Flight activity following the loss of Columbia and her crew of seven, NASA's entry aerothermodynamics community implemented an engineering correlation based framework for the prediction of boundary layer transition on the Orbiter. The methodology for this implementation relies upon the framework of correlation techniques that have been in use for several decades. What makes the Orbiter boundary layer transition correlation implementation unique is that a statistically significant data set was acquired in multiple ground test facilities, flight data exists to assist in establishing a better correlation and the framework was founded upon state of the art chemical nonequilibrium Navier Stokes flow field simulations. The basic tenets that guided the formulation and implementation of the Orbiter Return To Flight boundary layer transition prediction capability will be reviewed as a recommended format for future empirical correlation efforts. The validity of this approach has since been demonstrated by very favorable comparison of recent entry flight testing performed with the Orbiter Discovery, which will be graphically summarized. These flight data can provide a means to validate discrete protuberance engineering correlation approaches as well as high fidelity prediction methods to higher confidence. The results of these Orbiter engineering and flight test activities only serve to reinforce the essential role that engineering correlations currently exercise in the design and operation of entry vehicles. The framework of information-related to the Orbiter empirical boundary layer transition prediction capability will be utilized to establish a fresh perspective on this role, to illustrate how quantitative statistical evaluations of empirical correlations can and should be used to assess accuracy and to discuss what the authors' perceive as a recent heightened interest in the application of high fidelity numerical modeling of boundary layer transition. Concrete results will also be developed related to empirical boundary layer transition onset correlations. This will include assessment of the discrete protuberance boundary layer transition onset data assembled for the Orbiter configuration during post-Columbia Return To Flight. Assessment of these data will conclude that momentum thickness Reynolds number based correlations have superior coefficients and uncertainty in comparison to roughness height based Reynolds numbers, aka Re(sub k) or Re(sub kk). In addition, linear regression results from roughness height Reynolds number based correlations will be evaluated, leading to a hypothesis that non-continuum effects play a role in the processes associated with incipient boundary layer transition on discrete protuberances.

Campbell, Charles H.↗

60 Days of Head-down Bedrest Differentially Alters Venous Function in Lower and Upper Body Between Healthy Men and Women

The incidence of orthostatic intolerance after space flight is disproportionally higher in female compared to male crewmembers (83% vs. 20%). Experimental and human data suggest that the loss of orthostatic tolerance is due, at least in part, to microgravity-induced changes in venous compliance and that these changes are specific to the lower body. It is unknown however, whether the changes in venous compliance are different between males and females after space flight, and whether this is related to the disparity in orthostatic intolerance between the sexes. Using 6deg head-down bed rest (BR) as a model of space flight, we tested the following hypotheses; 1) females, compared to males, would experience a greater increase in venous compliance in dorsal foot veins as an effect of BR and 2) no differences in venous compliance would be found in dorsal hand veins between sexes and across BR days. Using 2-D ultrasound, dorsal hand (DHV) and foot vein (DFV) responses (diameter; expressed as sq mm) to 40 mmHg of congestion pressure (compliance) and to intravenous infusion of phenylephrine (PE; 3160ng/min) were determined in 10 females and 16 males before and after 60 days of BR. The relation between changes in vein diameter (in response to pressure and PE), sex, limb, and BR days were determined using a mixed-effect linear regression. It was found that after 60 days of BR, DFV dilator response to pressure was significantly greater in females and significantly less in males compared to pre-BR. As expected, there were no differences in DHV dilator response between sexes nor was there a significant difference between pre and post measures within groups. Notably, the venoconstrictor response to infusions of PE in the DHV and DFV where similar between sexes and across BR days. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that after 60 days of BR, dorsal foot veins are more compliant in women and less compliant in men. Moreover, the changes in lower body vein compliance in females do not appear to be due to changes in vasoconstrictor tone as their response to PE was preserved and similar to that in males. Taken together these data suggest that the higher incidence of orthostatic intolerance in females after space flight is due to increased venous compliance in the lower body which could translate to lower venous filling pressures and a reduced stroke volume.

Westby, Christian M.↗

Mechanisms and Feedbacks Causing Changes in Upper Stratospheric Ozone in the 21st Century

Stratospheric ozone is expected to increase during the 21st century as the abundance of halogenated ozone-depleting substances decrease to 1960 values. However, climate change will likely alter this "recovery" of stratospheric ozone by changing stratospheric temperatures, circulation, and abundance of reactive chemical species. Here we quantity the contribution of different mechanisms to changes in upper stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 in the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM), using multiple linear regression analysis applied to simulations using either Alb or A2 greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios. In both these scenarios upper stratospheric ozone has a secular increase over the 21st century. For the simulation using the Alb GHG scenario, this increase is determined by the decrease in halogen amounts and the greenhouse gas induced cooling, with roughly equal contributions from each mechanism. There is a larger cooling in the simulation using the A2 GHG scenario, but also enhanced loss from higher NOy and HOx concentrations, which nearly offsets the increase due to cooler temperatures. The resulting ozone evolutions are similar in the A2 and Alb simulations. The response of ozone due to feedbacks from temperature and HOx changes, related to changing halogen concentrations, are also quantified using simulations with fixed halogen concentrations.

Oman, Luke↗

An Investigation of Widespread Ozone Damage to the Soybean Crop in the Upper Midwest Determined From Ground-Based and Satellite Measurements

Elevated concentrations of ground-level ozone (O3) are frequently measured over farmland regions in many parts of the world. While numerous experimental studies show that O3 can significantly decrease crop productivity, independent verifications of yield losses at current ambient O3 concentrations in rural locations are sparse. In this study, soybean crop yield data during a 5-year period over the Midwest of the United States were combined with ground and satellite O3 measurements to provide evidence that yield losses on the order of 10% could be estimated through the use of a multiple linear regression model. Yield loss trends based on both conventional ground-based instrumentation and satellite-derived tropospheric O3 measurements were statistically significant and were consistent with results obtained from open-top chamber experiments and an open-air experimental facility (SoyFACE, Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment) in central Illinois. Our analysis suggests that such losses are a relatively new phenomenon due to the increase in background tropospheric O3 levels over recent decades. Extrapolation of these findings supports previous studies that estimate the global economic loss to the farming community of more than $10 billion annually.

Fishman, Jack↗

Multi-Model Assessment of the Factors Driving Stratospheric Ozone Evolution Over the 21st Century

The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from fourteen chemistry-climate models. There is general agreement among the models at the broadest levels, showing column ozone decreasing at all latitudes from 1960 to around 2000, then increasing at all latitudes over the first half of the 21st century, and latitudinal variations in the rate of increase and date of return to historical values. In the second half of the century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off or even decrease depending on the latitude, resulting in variable dates of return to historical values at latitudes where column ozone has declined below those levels. Separation into partial column above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely due to differences in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels before the end of the century, although there is a spread among the models in dates that ozone returns to historical values. Using multiple linear regression, we find decreasing halogens and increasing greenhouse gases contribute almost equally to increases in the upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere an increase in tropical upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in all models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels.

Oman, L. D.↗

Design and Development of a Model to Simulate 0-G Treadmill Running Using the European Space Agency's Subject Loading System

Develop a model that simulates a human running in 0 G using the European Space Agency s (ESA) Subject Loading System (SLS). The model provides ground reaction forces (GRF) based on speed and pull-down forces (PDF). DESIGN The theoretical basis for the Running Model was based on a simple spring-mass model. The dynamic properties of the spring-mass model express theoretical vertical GRF (GRFv) and shear GRF in the posterior-anterior direction (GRFsh) during running gait. ADAMs VIEW software was used to build the model, which has a pelvis, thigh segment, shank segment, and a spring foot (see Figure 1).the model s movement simulates the joint kinematics of a human running at Earth gravity with the aim of generating GRF data. DEVELOPMENT & VERIFICATION ESA provided parabolic flight data of subjects running while using the SLS, for further characterization of the model s GRF. Peak GRF data were fit to a linear regression line dependent on PDF and speed. Interpolation and extrapolation of the regression equation provided a theoretical data matrix, which is used to drive the model s motion equations. Verification of the model was conducted by running the model at 4 different speeds, with each speed accounting for 3 different PDF. The model s GRF data fell within a 1-standard-deviation boundary derived from the empirical ESA data. CONCLUSION The Running Model aids in conducting various simulations (potential scenarios include a fatigued runner or a powerful runner generating high loads at a fast cadence) to determine limitations for the T2 vibration isolation system (VIS) aboard the International Space Station. This model can predict how running with the ESA SLS affects the T2 VIS and may be used for other exercise analyses in the future.

Caldwell, E. C.↗