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At least 397 records · Page 22

Time Series Explorer: Bayesian Blocks with Generalized Profiles and in Higher Dimensions

The Time Series Explorer (TSE) is a project aimed at provided new and advanced time series analysis algorithms in two forms: a tool kit and an automated pipeline applying selected tools in machine learning settings. I will present a sketch of TSE with emphasis on time-domain modeling in general and recent improvements of the Bayesian Block (BB) algorithm in particular. This includes generalizing the shape of the elementary blocks from the current constant-rate model to general shapes, such as two-sided exponentials. Related topics will include extension of BB to higher dimensions and a novel way to detect and characterize short time-scale bursts in time-tagged event data. The Fermi Gamma Ray Space Telescope light curve for the Crab Nebula will be used as an example for all of the algorithms discussed. This work is in collaboration with Tom Loredo.

Bayesian Block (BB) algorithm↗

On Neural Architectures for Astronomical Time-series Classification with Application to Variable Stars

Despite the utility of neural networks (NNs) for astronomical time-series classification, the proliferation of learning architectures applied to diverse data sets has thus far hampered a direct intercomparison of different approaches. Here we perform the first comprehensive study of variants of NN-based learning and inference for astronomical time series, aiming to provide the community with an overview on relative performance and, hopefully, a set of best-in-class choices for practical implementations. In both supervised and self-supervised contexts, we study the effects of different time-series-compatible layer choices, namely the dilated temporal convolutional neural network (dTCNs), long-short term memory NNs, gated recurrent units and temporal convolutional NNs (tCNNs). Additionally, we also study the efficacy and performance of encoder-decoder (i.e., autoencoder) networks compared to direct classification networks, different pathways to include auxiliary (non-time-series) metadata, and different approaches to incorporate multi-passband data (i.e., multiple time series per source). Performance—applied to a sample of 17,604 variable stars (VSs) from the MAssive Compact Halo Objects (MACHO) survey across 10 imbalanced classes—is measured in training convergence time, classification accuracy, reconstruction error, and generated latent variables. We find that networks with recurrent NNs generally outperform dTCNs and, in many scenarios, yield to similar accuracy as tCNNs. In learning time and memory requirements, convolution-based layers perform better. We conclude by discussing the advantages and limitations of deep architectures for VS classification, with a particular eye toward next-generation surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time, the Roman Space Telescope, and Zwicky Transient Facility.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

End-to-end jet classification of boosted top quarks with the CMS open data

Here we describe a novel application of the end-to-end deep learning technique to the task of discriminating top quark-initiated jets from those originating from the hadronization of a light quark or a gluon. The end-to-end deep learning technique uses low-level detector representation of high-energy collision event as inputs to deep learning algorithms. In this study, we use low-level detector information from the simulated Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) open data samples to construct the top jet classifiers. To optimize classifier performance we progressively add low-level information from the CMS tracking detector, including pixel detector reconstructed hits and impact parameters, and demonstrate the value of additional tracking information even when no new spatial structures are added. Relying only on calorimeter energy deposits and reconstructed pixel detector hits, the end-to-end classifier achieves an area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) score of 0.975 ± 0.002 for the task of classifying boosted top quark jets. After adding derived track quantities, the classifier AUC score increases to 0.9824 ± 0.0013, serving as the first performance benchmark for these CMS open data samples.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Using an Extended Kalman Filter Learning Algorithm for Feed-Forward Neural Networks to Describe Tracer Correlations

In this study a new extended Kalman filter (EKF) learning algorithm for feed-forward neural networks (FFN) is used. With the EKF approach, the training of the FFN can be seen as state estimation for a non-linear stationary process. The EKF method gives excellent convergence performances provided that there is enough computer core memory and that the machine precision is high. Neural networks are ideally suited to describe the spatial and temporal dependence of tracer-tracer correlations. The neural network performs well even in regions where the correlations are less compact and normally a family of correlation curves would be required. For example, the CH4-N2O correlation can be well described using a neural network trained with the latitude, pressure, time of year, and CH4 volume mixing ratio (v.m.r.). The neural network was able to reproduce the CH4-N2O correlation with a correlation coefficient between simulated and training values of 0.9997. The neural network Fortran code used is available for download.

Lary, David J.↗

Enhanced physics-constrained deep neural networks for modeling vanadium redox flow battery

Numerical simulation has become indispensable in advancing cost-effective process optimization and control of flow batteries. We propose an enhanced version of the physics-constrained deep neural network (PCDNN) approach to provide high-accuracy voltage predictions in the vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs). The purpose of the PCDNN approach is to enforce the physics-based zero-dimensional (0D) VRFB model in a neural network to assure model generalization for various battery operation conditions. However, limited by the simplifications of the 0D model, the PCDNN cannot capture sharp voltage changes in the extreme SOC regions. To improve the accuracy of voltage prediction at extreme ranges, we introduce a second (enhanced) DNN to mitigate the prediction errors carried from the 0D model itself and call the resulting approach enhanced PCDNN (ePCDNN). By comparing with experimental data, we demonstrate that the ePCDNN approach can accurately capture the voltage response throughout the charge–discharge cycle, including the tail region of the voltage discharge curve. The loss function for training the ePCDNN is designed to be flexible by adjusting the weights of the physics-constrained DNN and the enhanced DNN. In conclusion, this allows the ePCDNN framework to be transferable to battery systems with variable physical model fidelity.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Transfer Learning using Denoising Auto-Encoders for Cellular-Level Annotation of Tumor in Pathology Slides

Adversarial examples can produce altered classifications using only seemingly innocuous, imperceptible perturbations to the original image. The imperceptibility of adversarial perturbations suggests that the corresponding classifiers use decision criteria different than those of a human. In a medical setting, inexplicable decision criteria confound a pathologist’s willingness to trust machine-generated annotations. Here, we analyze denoising tumor detection models to see if they are robust to imperceptible adversarial perturbations. Moreover, to be more fully trusted by pathologists, we require tumor detectors that generate interpretable annotations which segment pathology slides into tumorous and normal regions at the cellular level. We therefore compare transfer learning based on two different autoencoder architectures, one derived from a deep denoising bottleneck autoencoder and one from an over-complete sparse autoencoder. Both autoencoders were first trained in an unsupervised manner on a set of pathology slides drawn from the Camelyon16 dataset. The latent representations produced by each autoencoder were then passed to separate neural networks that were trained in a supervised manner on binary tumor-normal masks generated by pathologists at cellular resolution. Both tumor detectors supported better than 90% AUC PR as measured by the area under the precision/recall curve on a held-out pathology slide. To assess the underlying decision criteria used by both tumor detectors, we constructed imperceptible adversarial examples which reduced the AUC PR of both models to less than 70%. Random noise of the same amplitude had almost no effect on the AUC PR of either model. Additionally, each tumor detector was resistant to adversarial “transfer” attacks targeting the other. The adversarial perturbations showed strong characteristic differences: the deep denoising models perturbations were a very diffuse, seemingly unrecognizable pattern while the sparse coding models perturbations showed traces of tissue cells.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Long-term survival and second malignant tumor prediction in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult cancer survivors using Random Survival Forests: a SEER analysis

Abstract Survival and second malignancy prediction models can aid clinical decision making. Most commonly, survival analysis studies are performed using traditional proportional hazards models, which require strong assumptions and can lead to biased estimates if violated. Therefore, this study aims to implement an alternative, machine learning (ML) model for survival analysis: Random Survival Forest (RSF). In this study, RSFs were built using the U.S. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results to (1) predict 30-year survival in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult cancer survivors; and (2) predict risk and site of a second tumor within 30 years of the first tumor diagnosis in these age groups. The final RSF model for pediatric, adolescent, and young adult survival has an average Concordance index (C-index) of 92.9%, 94.2%, and 94.4% and average time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) at 30-years since first diagnosis of 90.8%, 93.6%, 96.1% respectively. The final RSF model for pediatric, adolescent, and young adult second malignancy has an average C-index of 86.8%, 85.2%, and 88.6% and average time-dependent AUC at 30-years since first diagnosis of 76.5%, 88.1%, and 99.0% respectively. This study suggests the robustness and potential clinical value of ML models to alleviate physician burden by quickly identifying highest risk individuals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Interpreting strain tensor data to characterize and monitor reservoirs for CO2 storage and other applications

Recent advances in instrumentation have made it feasible to measure the transient strain tensor caused by small changes in fluid volume or pressure in the subsurface and this has opened the door to new opportunities for characterization and monitoring. We have deployed strainmeters and then conducted injection well tests in an underlying reservoir at 530m depth. The resulting data indicated that the horizontal strain at shallow strainmeters (30 to 40m depth) was tensile and the vertical strain was compressive. The radial strain was less than the horizontal strain, and the strain rates decreased from 100 nanostrain/day to roughly 10 n/d over a few days. The signal at two strainmeters at shallow depth were consistent, although the magnitude of the horizontal strains were different reflecting the different radial directions from the well. The signal at a deep strainmeter deployed at reservoir depth was much different, with tensile vertical strains and compressive horizontal strains. These data can be interpreted by inverting poroelastic forward models developed using numerical and analytical methods. The average horizontal strain in the caprock resembles the transient pressure in the underlying reservoir and classic type-curve methods from transient well testing can be used for preliminary interpretations of strain data. We have developed closed-form analytical solutions to a pressurized poroelastic inclusion and inhomogeneity in a half-space. This model is fast and can be inverted to estimate reservoir stiffness and geometry. Numerical models developed using finite element methods allow more details of the subsurface to be included in the inversion, but they require much longer run times and this makes inversion cumbersome using standard methods. We have developed an inversion approach that uses a proxy model created using machine learning to do most of the forward calculations. The proxy model is periodically updated and refined using the finite element model to ensure accuracy. This approach significantly reduces the computational requirements and makes it feasible to use Bayesian inversion with large numerical models. We have shown that the strain tensor in the caprock is sensitive to pressure in the reservoir, boundaries in the reservoir, and pressure in the caprock caused by leaks. These results indicate that coupling strain tensor data with inversion has the potential to help evaluate reservoirs during initial characterization, and to monitor them during the CO2 injection and storage process.

Murdoch, Larry↗

Machine-learning-based investigation of the variables affecting summertime lightning occurrence over the Southern Great Plains

Lightning is affected by many factors, many of which are not routinely measured, well understood, or accounted for in physical models. Several commonly used machine learning (ML) models have been applied to analyze the relationship between Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data and lightning data from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) in order to identify important variables affecting lightning occurrence in the vicinity of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) ARM site during the summer months (June, July, August and September) of 2012 to 2020. Testing various ML models, we found that the random forest model is the best predictor among common classifiers. When convective clouds were detected, it predicts lightning occurrence with an accuracy of 76.9 % and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.850. Using this model, we further ranked the variables in terms of their effectiveness in nowcasting lightning and identified geometric cloud thickness, rain rate and convective available potential energy (CAPE) as the most effective predictors. The contrast in meteorological variables between no-lightning and frequent-lightning periods was examined for hours with CAPE values conducive to thunderstorm formation. Besides the variables considered for the ML models, surface variables and mid-altitude variables (e.g., equivalent potential temperature and minimum equivalent potential temperature, respectively) have statistically significant contrasts between no-lightning and frequent-lightning hours. For example, the minimum equivalent potential temperature from 700 to 500 hPa is significantly lower during frequent-lightning hours compared with no-lightning hours. Finally, a notable positive relationship between the intracloud (IC) flash fraction and the square root of CAPE ($\sqrt{CAPE}$) was found, suggesting that stronger updrafts increase the height of the electrification zone, resulting in fewer flashes reaching the surface and consequently a greater IC flash fraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Uranus occults SAO158687

Experience gained in obtaining atmospheric parameters, oblatenesses, and diameters of Jupiter and Mars from recent stellar occultations by these planets is used to predict what can be learned from the March 1977 occultation of the star SAO158687 by Uranus. The spectra of this star and Uranus are compared to indicate the relative instrument intensities of the two objects, the four passbands where the relative intensities are most nearly equal are listed, and expected photon fluxes from the star are computed on the assumption that it has UBVRI colors appropriate for a K5 main-sequence object. It is shown that low photon noise errors can be achieved by choosing appropriate passbands for observation, and the rms error expected for the Uranus temperature profiles obtained from the occultation light curves is calculated. It is suggested that observers of this occultation should record their data digitally for optimum time resolution.

Elliot, J. L.↗

EXPRES. II. Searching for Planets around Active Stars: A Case Study of HD 101501

By controlling instrumental errors to below 10 cm s{sup −1}, the EXtreme PREcision Spectrograph (EXPRES) allows for a more insightful study of photospheric velocities that can mask weak Keplerian signals. Gaussian processes (GP) have become a standard tool for modeling correlated noise in radial velocity data sets. While GPs are constrained and motivated by physical properties of the star, in some cases they are still flexible enough to absorb unresolved Keplerian signals. We apply GP regression to EXPRES radial velocity measurements of the 3.5 Gyr old chromospherically active Sun-like star, HD 101501. We obtain tight constraints on the stellar rotation period and the evolution of spot distributions using 28 seasons of ground-based photometry, as well as recent Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite data. Light-curve inversion was carried out on both photometry data sets to reveal the spot distribution and spot evolution timescales on the star. We find that the >5 m s{sup −1} rms radial velocity variations in HD 101501 are well modeled with a GP stellar activity model without planets, yielding a residual rms scatter of 45 cm s{sup −1}. We carry out simulations, injecting and recovering signals with the GP framework, to demonstrate that high-cadence observations are required to use GPs most efficiently to detect low-mass planets around active stars like HD 101501. Sparse sampling prevents GPs from learning the correlated noise structure and can allow it to absorb prospective Keplerian signals. We quantify the moderate to high-cadence monitoring that provides the necessary information to disentangle photospheric features using GPs and to detect planets around active stars.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Bragg curve spectroscopy for improved fission fragment identification

We report on the development of Bragg curve spectroscopy techniques to improve fission fragment identification in the measurement of independent fission product yields. The NIFFTE collaboration’s fissionTPC detector provides ionization energy and particle tracking information from neutroninduced fission targets. A joint effort between PNNL, LLNL, LANL, and the Colorado School of Mines is investigating the ionization profiles deposited by U-235, U-238, and Pu-239 fission products in this detector, with the goal of including additional stopping power information beyond a standard 2E analysis. The aim is to improve the determination of fragment atomic and mass numbers with this information, via methods such as parametric fits and machine learning techniques.

Fulsom, Bryan G.↗

Bottom-up design of actinide materials from molecular clusters: Demonstration of a general-purpose simulation capability leveraging machine-learned atomic potentials

Actinide thin-film coatings such as uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) play an important role in nuclear reactors and other mission-relevant applications, but realization of their potential requires a deep fundamental understanding of the chemical vapor deposition (CVD) processes used for their growth. The slow experimental progress can be attributed, in part, to the standard safety guidelines associated with handling uranium byproducts, which are often corrosive, toxic, and radioactive. Accurate simulation techniques, when used in concert with experiment, can improve laboratory safety, material durability, and deliverable timeframes. However, state-of-the-art computational methods are either insufficiently accurate or intractably expensive. To remedy this situation, in this project we suggested a machine-learning (ML) accelerated workflow for simulating molecular clustering toward deposition. As a benchmark test case, we considered molecular clustering in steam and assessed independent components of our workflow by comparing with measured thermodynamic properties of water. After analyzing each component individually and finding no fundamental barrier to realization of the workflow, we attempted to integrate the ML component, a Sandia-developed tool called FitSNAP. As this was the first application of FitSNAP to atoms and molecules in the gas phase at Sandia, the method required more fitting data than was originally anticipated. Systematic improvements were made by including in the fit data diatomic potentials, molecular single-bond-breaking curves, and symmetry-constrained intermolecular potentials. We concluded that our strategy provides a feasible pathway toward modeling CVD and related processes, but that extensive training data must be generated before it can be of practical use.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Composite fuselage shell structures research at NASA Langley Research Center

Fuselage structures for transport aircraft represent a significant percentage of both the weight and the cost of these aircraft primary structures. Composite materials offer the potential for reducing both the weight and the cost of transport fuselage structures, but only limited studies of the response and failure of composite fuselage structures have been conducted for transport aircraft. The behavior of these important primary structures must be understood, and the structural mechanics methodology for analyzing and designing these complex stiffened shell structures must be validated in the laboratory. The effects of local gradients and discontinuities on fuselage shell behavior and the effects of local damage on pressure containment must be thoroughly understood before composite fuselage structures can be used for commercial aircraft. This paper describes the research being conducted and planned at NASA LaRC to help understand the critical behavior or composite fuselage structures and to validate the structural mechanics methodology being developed for stiffened composite fuselage shell structure subjected to combined internal pressure and mechanical loads. Stiffened shell and curved stiffened panel designs are currently being developed and analyzed, and these designs will be fabricated and then tested at Langley to study critical fuselage shell behavior and to validate structural analysis and design methodology. The research includes studies of the effects of combined internal pressure and mechanical loads on nonlinear stiffened panel and shell behavior, the effects of cutouts and other gradient-producing discontinuities on composite shell response, and the effects of local damage on pressure containment and residual strength. Scaling laws are being developed that relate full-scale and subscale behavior of composite fuselage shells. Failure mechanisms are being identified and advanced designs will be developed based on what is learned from early results from the LaRC research activities. Results from combined load tests will be used to validate analytical models of critical nonlinear response mechanisms as well as shell scaling laws.

Starnes, James H., Jr.↗

Approach for Structurally Clearing an Adaptive Compliant Trailing Edge Flap for Flight

The Adaptive Compliant Trailing Edge (ACTE) flap was flown on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Gulfstream GIII testbed at the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center. This smoothly curving flap replaced the existing Fowler flaps creating a seamless control surface. This compliant structure, developed by FlexSys Inc. in partnership with the Air Force Research Laboratory, supported NASA objectives for airframe structural noise reduction, aerodynamic efficiency, and wing weight reduction through gust load alleviation. A thorough structures airworthiness approach was developed to move this project safely to flight. A combination of industry and NASA standard practice require various structural analyses, ground testing, and health monitoring techniques for showing an airworthy structure. This paper provides an overview of compliant structures design, the structural ground testing leading up to flight, and the flight envelope expansion and monitoring strategy. Flight data will be presented, and lessons learned along the way will be highlighted.

flight test↗

Breath analysis by ultra-sensitive broadband laser spectroscopy detects SARS-CoV-2 infection

Rapid testing is essential to fighting pandemics such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Exhaled human breath contains multiple volatile molecules providing powerful potential for non-invasive diagnosis of diverse medical conditions. We investigated breath detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection using cavity-enhanced direct frequency comb spectroscopy (CE-DFCS), a state-of-the-art laser spectroscopic technique capable of a real-time massive collection of broadband molecular absorption features at ro-vibrational quantum state resolution and at parts-per-trillion volume detection sensitivity. Using a total of 170 individual breath samples (83 positive and 87 negative with SARS-CoV-2 based on reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction tests), we report excellent discrimination capability for SARS-CoV-2 infection with an area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve of 0.849(4). Our results support the development of CE-DFCS as an alternative, rapid, non-invasive test for COVID-19 and highlight its remarkable potential for optical diagnoses of diverse biological conditions and disease states.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Extending the Takagi-Taupin equations for x-ray nanobeam Bragg coherent diffraction

We present an approach for simulating x-ray nanobeam Bragg coherent diffraction patterns based on the Takagi-Taupin equations. Compared to conventional methods, the current approach can be universally applied to any weakly strained system including semi-infinite crystals that diffract dynamically. It addresses issues such as the curved wave front and redivergence of the focused incident beam. In conclusion, we show excellent agreement with experimental data for a strained La 0.7 ⁢Sr 0.3⁢ MnO 3 thin film on a SrTiO 3 substrate and a path to extracting physical information using automatic differentiation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗