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At least 397 records · Page 22

Interannual variability in global mean sea level estimated from the CESM Large and Last Millennium Ensembles

To better understand global mean sea level (GMSL) as an indicator of climate variability and change, contributions to its interannual variation are quantified in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Last Millennium Ensemble. Consistent with expectations, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to exert a strong influence due to variability in rainfall over land (PL) and terrestrial water storage (TWS). Other important contributors include changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and precipitable water (PW). The temporal evolution of individual contributing terms is documented. The magnitude of peak GMSL anomalies associated with ENSO generally are of the order of 0.5 mm·K -1 with significant inter-event variability, with a standard deviation (σ) that is about half as large The results underscore the exceptional rarity of the 2010/2011 La Niña-related GMSL drop and estimate the frequency of such an event to be about only once in every 75 years. In addition to ENSO, major volcanic eruptions are found to be a key driver of interannual variability. Associated GMSL variability contrasts with that of ENSO as TWS and PW anomalies initially offset the drop due to OHC reductions but short-lived relative to them. Furthermore, responses up to 25 mm are estimated for the largest eruptions of the Last Millennium.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TU-AB-BRA-04: Quantitative Radiomics: Sensitivity of PET Textural Features to Image Acquisition and Reconstruction Parameters Implies the Need for Standards

Purpose: Despite increased use of heterogeneity metrics for PET imaging, standards for metrics such as textural features have yet to be developed. We evaluated the quantitative variability caused by image acquisition and reconstruction parameters on PET textural features. Methods: PET images of the NEMA IQ phantom were simulated with realistic image acquisition noise. 35 features based on intensity histograms (IH), co-occurrence matrices (COM), neighborhood-difference matrices (NDM), and zone-size matrices (ZSM) were evaluated within lesions (13, 17, 22, 28, 33 mm diameter). Variability in metrics across 50 independent images was evaluated as percent difference from mean for three phantom girths (850, 1030, 1200 mm) and two OSEM reconstructions (2 iterations, 28 subsets, 5 mm FWHM filtration vs 6 iterations, 28 subsets, 8.6 mm FWHM filtration). Also, patient sample size to detect a clinical effect of 30% with Bonferroni-corrected α=0.001 and 95% power was estimated. Results: As a class, NDM features demonstrated greatest sensitivity in means (5–50% difference for medium girth and reconstruction comparisons and 10–100% for large girth comparisons). Some IH features (standard deviation, energy, entropy) had variability below 10% for all sensitivity studies, while others (kurtosis, skewness) had variability above 30%. COM and ZSM features had complex sensitivities; correlation, energy, entropy (COM) and zone percentage, short-zone emphasis, zone-size non-uniformity (ZSM) had variability less than 5% while other metrics had differences up to 30%. Trends were similar for sample size estimation; for example, coarseness, contrast, and strength required 12, 38, and 52 patients to detect a 30% effect for the small girth case but 38, 88, and 128 patients in the large girth case. Conclusion: The sensitivity of PET textural features to image acquisition and reconstruction parameters is large and feature-dependent. Standards are needed to ensure that prospective trials which incorporate textural features are properly designed to detect clinical endpoints. Supported by NIH grants R01 CA169072, U01 CA148131, NCI Contract (SAIC-Frederick) 24XS036-004, and a research contract from GE Healthcare.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Retracking Algorithms Using Airborne Radar and Laser Altimeter Measurements of the Greenland Ice Sheet

This paper compares four continental ice sheet radar altimeter retracking algorithms using airborne radar and laser altimeter data taken over the Greenland ice sheet in 1991. The refurbished Advanced Application Flight Experiment (AAFE) airborne radar altimeter has a large range window and stores the entire return waveform during flight. Once the return waveforms are retracked, or post-processed to obtain the most accurate altitude measurement possible, they are compared with the high-precision Airborne Oceanographic Lidar (AOL) altimeter measurements. The AAFE waveforms show evidence of varying degrees of both surface and volume scattering from different regions of the Greenland ice sheet. The AOL laser altimeter, however, obtains a return only from the surface of the ice sheet. Retracking altimeter waveforms with a surface scattering model results in a good correlation with the laser measurements in the wet and dry-snow zones, but in the percolation region of the ice sheet, the deviation between the two data sets is large due to the effects of subsurface and volume scattering. The Martin et al model results in a lower bias than the surface scattering model, but still shows an increase in the noise level in the percolation zone. Using an Offset Center of Gravity algorithm to retrack altimeter waveforms results in measurements that are only slightly affected by subsurface and volume scattering and, despite a higher bias, this algorithm works well in all regions of the ice sheet. A cubic spline provides retracked altitudes that agree with AOL measurements over all regions of Greenland. This method is not sensitive to changes in the scattering mechanisms of the ice sheet and it has the lowest noise level and bias of all the retracking methods presented.

Ferraro, Ellen J.↗

Holographic reconstruction of AdS exchanges from crossing symmetry

Motivated by AdS/CFT, we address the following outstanding question in large N conformal field theory: given the appearance of a single-trace operator in the O x O OPE of a scalar primary O, what is its total contribution to the vacuum four-point function (OOOO) as dictated by crossing symmetry? We solve this problem in 4d conformal field theories at leading order in 1/N. Viewed holographically, this provides a field theory reconstruction of crossing-symmetric, four-point exchange amplitudes in AdS 5 . Our solution takes the form of a resummation of the large spin solution to the crossing equations, supplemented by corrections at finite spin, required by crossing. The method can be applied to the exchange of operators of arbitrary twist τ and spin s, although it vastly simplifies for even-integer twist, where we give explicit results. The output is the set of OPE data for the exchange of all double-trace operators [OO] n,ℓ . We find that the double-trace anomalous dimensions γ n,ℓ are negative, monotonic and convex functions of ℓ, for all n and all ℓ > s. This constitutes a holographic signature of bulk causality and classical dynamics of even-spin fields. We also find that the “derivative relation” between double-trace anomalous dimensions and OPE coefficients does not hold in general, and derive the explicit form of the deviation in several cases. Finally, we study large n limits of γ n,ℓ , relevant for the Regge and bulk-point regimes.

1/N expansion↗

Ku-band radar threshold analysis

The statistics of the CFAR threshold for the Ku-band radar was determined. Exact analytical results were developed for both the mean and standard deviations in the designated search mode. The mean value is compared to the results of a previously reported simulation. The analytical results are more optimistic than the simulation results, for which no explanation is offered. The normalized standard deviation is shown to be very sensitive to signal-to-noise ratio and very insensitive to the noise correlation present in the range gates of the designated search mode. The substantial variation in the CFAR threshold is dominant at large values of SNR where the normalized standard deviation is greater than 0.3. Whether or not this significantly affects the resulting probability of detection is a matter which deserves additional attention.

Weber, C. L.↗

Indirect searches at CMS

In these proceedings, we present several new measurements of Standard Model (SM) processes, in the Higgs sector and beyond, that push the precision frontier forward at CMS. Results are presented in the context of a framework parameterizing deviations in Higgs boson couplings, as well as in the context of SM Effective Field Theory, where new analyses targeting Higgs, top, and multi-boson processes probe an increasingly diverse set of operators. Within these frameworks, CMS is efficiently exploring a large space of new physics models. No significant deviation from SM expectations is found.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Comparing Ocean Surface Boundary Vertical Mixing Schemes Including Langmuir Turbulence

Six recent Langmuir turbulence parameterization schemes and five traditional schemes are implemented in a common single-column modeling framework and consistently compared. These schemes are tested in scenarios versus matched large eddy simulations, across the globe with realistic forcing (JRA55-do,WAVEWATCH-III simulated waves) and initial conditions (Argo), and under realistic conditions as observed at ocean moorings. Traditional non-Langmuir schemes systematically underpredict large eddy simulation vertical mixing under weak convective forcing, while Langmuir schemes vary in accuracy. Under global, realistic forcing Langmuir schemes produce 6% (–1% to 14% for 90% confidence) or 5.2 m (–0.2 m to 17.4 m for 90% confidence) deeper monthly mean mixed layer depths than their non-Langmuir counterparts, with the greatest differences in extratropical regions, especially the Southern Ocean in austral summer. Discrepancies among Langmuir schemes are large (15% in mixed layer depth standard deviation over the mean): largest under wave-driven turbulence with stabilizing buoyancy forcing, next largest under strongly wave-driven conditions with weak buoyancy forcing, and agreeing during strong convective forcing. Non-Langmuir schemes disagree with each other to a lesser extent, with a similar ordering. Langmuir discrepancies obscure a cross-scheme estimate of the Langmuir effect magnitude under realistic forcing, highlighting limited understanding and numerical deficiencies. Maps of the regions and seasons where the greatest discrepancies occur are provided to guide further studies and observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of inflationary predictions to pre-inflationary phases

How sensitive are the predictions of inflation to pre-inflationary conditions when the number of efolds of inflation is not too large? In an attempt to address this question, we consider a simple model where the inflationary era is preceded by an era dominated by a radiation fluid, which is coupled to the inflaton only gravitationally and which extends back to the Planck era. We show that there is a natural generalized Bunch-Davies vacuum state for perturbations to the coupled inflaton-gravity-fluid system at early times. With this choice of initial state the model predicts interesting deviations from the standard power spectrum of single field slow-roll inflation at large scales. However, the deviations are too small to be observable in near future CMB observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Tempering stochastic density functional theory

Here, we introduce a tempering approach with stochastic density functional theory (sDFT), labeled t-sDFT, which reduces the statistical errors in the estimates of observable expectation values. This is achieved by rewriting the electronic density as a sum of a "warm" component complemented by "colder" correction(s). Since the warm component is larger in magnitude but faster to evaluate, we use many more stochastic orbitals for its evaluation than for the smaller-sized colder correction(s). This results in a significant reduction in the statistical fluctuations and systematic deviation compared to sDFT for the same computational effort. We demonstrate the method's performance on large hydrogen-passivated silicon nanocrystals, finding a reduction in the systematic deviation in the energy by more than an order of magnitude, while the systematic deviation in the forces is also quenched. Similarly, the statistical fluctuations are reduced by factors of ≈4-5 for the total energy and ≈1.5-2 for the forces on the atoms. Since the embedding in t-sDFT is fully stochastic, it is possible to combine t-sDFT with other variants of sDFT such as energy-window sDFT and embedded-fragmented sDFT.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Reproducibility of calculations on Li species with correlation-consistent basis sets

Here we have found that two different basis set series, both labeled cc-pVxZ, are widely available and widely used for calculation on Li compounds such that calculations that should be the same are different, causing a reproducibility problem. Here we study the magnitude of the disagreement of these nominally-the-same basis sets for wave function and density functional calculations of Li clusters. We find deviations among the basis sets of as large as 22 millihartrees. In most cases one obtains lower energies with the noncanonical choices. Therefore, it is important to specify which version of the basis set is used for calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Stabilization of Low Valent Zirconium Nitrides in Titanium Nitride via Plasma-Enhanced Atomic Layer Deposition and Assessment of Electrochemical Properties

The increasing awareness of metal nitrides as feasible electrocatalysts in numerous energy-relevant transformations motivates greater synthetic control of mixed metal nitride compositions and their valence states. We report plasma-enhanced atomic layer deposition of titanium zirconium nitride, with an emphasis on the experimental parameters that influence the valence states of the two metal ions. We further examined the consequence of various ratios of Ti and Zr on the electrochemically active surface areas (ECSAs). Films with a Zr-to-Ti ratio of 1:2 or 1:1 yielded the highest ECSA; deviation from these values led to a large fraction of electrically insulating or semiconducting titanium or zirconium oxynitrides/oxides. The systematic examination establishes a fundamental structure-property relationship critical to assessing the electrochemical/electrocatalytic properties of metal nitrides.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Turbulence Structures in the Very Stable Boundary Layer Under the Influence of Wind Profile Distortion

Abstract In very stable boundary layers (VSBL), a “cocktail” of submeso motions routinely result in elevated mean wind speed maxima above the ground, acting as a new source of turbulence generation. This new source of turbulent kinetic energy enhances turbulent mixing and causes mean wind profile distortion (WPD). As a results, this transient distortion in the wind profile adjusts the classical log‐law. Addressing how WPD‐induced turbulence regulates flow structures, turbulent fluxes, and transitions in stability regimes across layers remains a challenge. Eddy covariance data measured at four levels on a 62‐m tower are employed to address these questions. It is shown that the WPD initiates large turbulent eddies that penetrate downward, leading to enhanced vertical mixing and comparable turbulent transport efficiencies across layers. As a consequence, turbulence intensity and fluxes are increased. As the WPD is intensified, turbulent fluxes and turbulent flux transport caused by large eddies are also enhanced, leading to a transition from very stable to weakly stable regimes. Due to the influence of WPD‐induced large eddies, the large‐eddy turbulent Prandtl number does not deviate appreciably from unity and the partitioning between turbulent kinetic and potential energies is linearly related to the gradient Richardson number.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Investigation of flow regimes in arc plasma–gas interactions using a two-temperature arc in crossflow model

The perpendicular impingement of a gas stream on an electric arc, a configuration known as the arc in crossflow, is of primary relevance in the study of plasma-gas interactions, as well as in industrial applications such as circuit breakers and wire-arc spraying. The flow dynamics in the arc in crossflow are the result of coupled fluid-thermal-electromagnetic phenomena accompanied by large property gradients, which can produce significant deviations from Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE) among electrons and gas species. These characteristics can lead to the establishment of distinct flow regimes depending on the relative values of the controlling parameters of the system, such as inflow velocity, arc current, and inter-electrode spacing. A two-temperature non-LTE (NLTE) model is used to investigate the arc dynamics and the establishment of flow regimes in the arc in crossflow. The plasma flow model is implemented within a nonlinear Variational Multiscale (VMS) numerical discretization approach that is less dissipative, and hence better suited to capture unstable behavior, than traditional VMS methods commonly used in computational fluid dynamics simulations. The Reynolds and the Enthalpy dimensionless numbers, characterizing the relative flow strength and arc strength, respectively, are chosen as the controlling parameters of the system. Simulation results reveal the onset of dynamic behavior and the establishment of steady, periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic or potentially turbulent, regimes, as identified by distinct spatiotemporal fluctuations. The computational findings reveal the role of increasing the relative arc strength on enhancing flow stability by delaying the growth of fluctuating and unstable flow behavior.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A new step forward in realistic cluster lens mass modelling: analysis of Hubble Frontier Field Cluster Abell S1063 from joint lensing, X-ray, and galaxy kinematics data

We present a new method to simultaneously and self-consistently model the mass distribution of galaxy clusters that combines constraints from strong lensing features, X-ray emission, and galaxy kinematics measurements. We are able to successfully decompose clusters into their collisionless and collisional mass components thanks to the X-ray surface brightness, as well as use the dynamics of cluster members, to obtain more accurate masses exploiting the fundamental plane of elliptical galaxies. Knowledge from all observables is included through a consistent Bayesian approach in the likelihood or in physically motivated priors. We apply this method to the galaxy cluster Abell S1063 and produce a mass model that we publicly release with this paper. The resulting mass distribution presents different ellipticities for the intra-cluster gas and the other large-scale mass components as well as deviation from elliptical symmetry in the main halo. We assess the ability of our method to recover the masses of the different elements of the cluster using a mock cluster based on a simplified version of our Abell S1063 model. Thanks to the wealth of mutliwavelength information provided by the mass model and the detected X-ray emission, we also found evidence for an ongoing merger event with gas sloshing from a smaller infalling structure into the main cluster. In agreement with previous findings, the total mass, gas profile, and gas mass fraction are all consistent with small deviations from the hydrostatic equilibrium. This new mass model for Abell S1063 is publicly available, as the lenstool extension used to construct it.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The effect of UV variability on stratospheric thermal structure and trace constituents

The paper examines the effect of observed UV flux variability in the spectral region of 0.175-0.3 microns on: (1) atmospheric concentrations of O3, O(1 D), OH, NO2, HNO3, and N2O; (2) stratospheric temperature structure; and (3) the calculated surface temperature. It is shown that perturbations in the number densities of the above constituents may be as large as 90 percent and that temperature deviations may range from 2 to 8 K for the altitude interval 20-40 km. These results have been determined using a 1-D radiative-convective-photochemical model.

Callis, L. B.↗

Radar-anomalous, high-altitude features on Venus

Over nearly all of the surface of Venus the reflectivity and emissivity at centimeter wavelengths are about 0.15 and 0.85 respectively. These values are consistent with moderately dense soils and rock populations, but the mean reflectivity is about a factor of 2 greater than that for the Moon and other terrestrial planets. Pettingill and Ford, using Pioneer Venus reflectivities and emissivities, found a number of anomalous features on Venus that showed much higher reflectivities and much lower emissivities with both values approaching 0.5. These include Maxwell Montes, a number of high regions in Aphrodite Terra and Beta Regio, and several isolated mountain peaks. Most of the features are at altitudes above the mean radius by 2 to 3 km or more. However, such features have been found in the Magellan data at low altitudes and the anomalies do not exist on all high structures, Maat Mons being the most outstanding example. A number of papers have been written that attempt to explain the phenomena in terms of the geochemistry balance of weathering effects on likely surface minerals. The geochemists have shown that the fundamentally basaltic surface would be stable at the temperatures and pressures of the mean radius in the form of magnetite, but would evolve to pyrite and/or pyrrhotite in the presence of sulfur-bearing compounds such as SO2. Pyrite will be stable at altitudes above 4 or 5 km on Venus. Although the geochemical arguments are rather compelling, it is vitally important to rationally look at other explanations for radar and radio emission measurements such as that presented by Tryka and Muhleman. The radar reflectivity values are retrieved from the raw Magellan backscatter measurements by fitting the Hagfors' radar scattering model in which a surface roughness parameters and a normal incidence electrical reflectivity are estimated. The assumptions of the theory behind the model must be considered carefully before the results can be believed. These include that the surface roughness exists only at horizontal scales large compared to the wavelength, the vertical deviations are gaussianly distributed, there is no shadowing, and that the reflection occurs at the interface of two homogeneous dielectric half-spaces. Probably all these conditions are violated at the anomalous features under discussion. The most important of these is the homogeneity of the near surface of Venus, particularly in highlands. Under the assumptions of the theory, all of the radio energy is reflected by the impedance jump at the very boundary. However, in heterogeneous soil some fraction of the illuminating energy is propagated into the soil and then scattered back out by impedance discontinuities such as rock, voids, and cracks. In light soils, the latter effect can overwhelm the scattering effects of the true surface and greatly enhance the backscatter power, suggesting a much higher value of an effective dielectric constant that would be estimated from Hagfors' model.

Muhleman, Duane O.↗

Orientation illusions and heart-rate changes during short-radius centrifugation

Intermittent short-radius centrifugation is a promising countermeasure against the adverse effects of prolonged weightlessness. To assess the feasibility of this countermeasure, we need to understand the disturbing sensory effects that accompany some movements carried out during rotation. We tested 20 subjects who executed yaw and pitch head movements while rotating at constant angular velocity. They were supine with their main body axis perpendicular to earth gravity. The head was placed at the centrifuge's axis of rotation. Head movements produced a transient elevation of heart-rate. All observers reported head-contingent sensations of body tilt although their bodies remained supine. Mostly, the subjective sensations conform to a model based on semicircular canal responses to angular acceleration. However, some surprising deviations from the model were found. Also, large inter-individual differences in direction, magnitude, and quality of the illusory body tilt were observed. The results have implications for subject screening and prediction of subjective tolerance for centrifugation.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

Cosmic microwave background probes models of inflation

Inflation creates both scalar (density) and tensor (gravity wave) metric perturbations. We find that the tensor-mode contribution to the cosmic microwave background anisotropy on large-angular scales can only exceed that of the scalar mode in models where the spectrum of perturbations deviates significantly from scale invariance. If the tensor mode dominates at large-angular scales, then the value of DeltaT/T predicted on 1 deg is less than if the scalar mode dominates, and, for cold-dark-matter models, bias factors greater than 1 can be made consistent with Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) DMR results.

Davis, Richard L.↗