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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment Report Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base

Motor systems are an integral part of our industrial and commercial facilities. They provide the motive force behind the fans, pumps, compressors, chillers, and conveyors in these facilities. Given their centrality to any facility’s operations, they are a critical energy end use to understand, particularly when developing technologies and policies to meet sustainability goals, improve productivity, and enhance resilience. In the late 1990s, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducted two seminal studies to better understand the installed stock and energy savings opportunities of industrial and commercial motor systems. In the industrial sector, The United States Industrial Electric Motor Systems Market Opportunities Assessment used primary data collected through onsite assessments and led to a greater understanding of the installed base of motor systems, their characteristics, and the opportunities for energy savings (U.S. Department of Energy, 2002). Notable findings included the following: Industrial motor systems consumed 679 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 1994, representing 23 percent of U.S. electricity consumption. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 62-104 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Sixty-two percent of the energy savings potential was from fan, pump, and compressor end use equipment. Nearly half of motor system electricity consumption was attributable to approximately 3,500 facilities, or 1.5 percent of U.S. manufacturing facilities. Opportunities for Energy Savings in the Residential and Commercial Sectors with High Efficiency Electric Motors provided an evaluation of the installed stock of motor driven equipment in U.S. commercial and residential buildings and opportunities for utilization of high efficiency motors and variable speed technologies (Arthur D. Little, 1999). Notable findings included the following: Commercial motor systems consumed 343 billion kWh in 1995, with refrigeration and space conditioning constituting 93 percent of the total. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 51 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Due in no small part to these seminal studies, motor system technologies and usage characteristics have changed drastically since the late 1990s. Greater awareness of cost-effective strategies for reducing motor system electricity consumption have been developed and deployed. This includes several software tools, literature, and utility and government programs promoting energy efficiency improvements in motor driven systems. Additionally, several rounds of energy efficiency standards have been enacted, resulting in improved installed motor efficiency. The cost of variable speed drives has dropped substantially, and combined with utility rebate programs, has led to their greater adoption. Further, since these results were published, the U.S. manufacturing sector has undergone a massive transformation. Due to global competition, some sectors have relocated operations overseas. Others have brought operations onshore to avail low cost and abundant natural gas. Additionally, automation and robotics have pervaded the entire sector. Consequently, these two reports likely do not represent the current state of motor driven systems in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities. As cited in recent studies, the lack of current information on motor system electricity consumption and use characteristics limits the ability to conduct analysis on energy savings potential, develop technologies to address energy and productivity gaps, and develop programs to promote energy efficiency practices and technologies for motor systems (International Energy Agency, 2007; UNIDO, 2010; McKane and Hasanbeigi, 2011; Waide and Brunner, 2011). Specifically, the lack of information affects a range of stakeholders: Governments must rely on outdated information when setting research agendas, developing policies, and designing energy efficiency programs and offerings. Utilities and energy efficiency programs cannot identify the current market needs or potential impact when designing rebate and energy efficiency programs. Electric grid planners cannot identify motor system usage characteristics when developing plans to support the resilience of the electric grid. Manufacturers of motors, motor driven equipment, and drives are hampered when developing technologies to meet the needs of their market. Motor system end users are limited in their ability to identify energy saving opportunities within their own facilities because they do not have reliable benchmark information. In response to the lack of current information and analysis on industrial and commercial motor systems, the DOE initiated an update to these two studies. Launched in 2016 and led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), the Motor System Market Assessment (MSMA) provides an updated, more comprehensive assessment of the installed stock of motor systems in both the industrial and commercial sectors, a review of the supply chains supporting motor and drives in the U.S., and the performance improvement opportunity available from using best available technologies and maintenance and operation practices. The outcomes of the MSMA are documented in three U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment reports, with this report being the first listed: 1. Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base (this report) documents the findings on the installed base of motor systems in the U.S. industrial and commercial sectors. Quantification of energy savings potential is not documented in this report but in Volume 3. 2. Volume 2: Motors and Drives Supply Chain Review reviews the state of supply chains for motors and drives installed in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities, focusing on advanced motor and drive technologies and their constituent materials. 3. Volume 3: Energy Savings Opportunity analyzes the energy performance improvement opportunity for the installed base of U.S. industrial and commercial motor systems. This report has been prepared as a reference for motor system stakeholders. It provides factual information as could be best determined by the assessment results and avoids speculating on any findings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hardtack II

Armed and ready to fire, Adams remained suspended under a balloon high over the Nevada Test Site throughout the day and night of October 31, 1958. Shortly after midnight, Adams was lowered to the ground and disarmed. With that, Operation Hardtack II ended and a test moratorium, primarily a gentlemen’s agreement between the United States and the Soviet Union, took effect. As the possibility of a moratorium became more and more likely in late 1957, the Atomic Energy Commission and its two weapon laboratories sought Presidential approval for an unprecedented number of tests for the coming year, including a proposal by the UCRL for a series of underground and safety tests in an operation called Millrace. Not wanting to jeopardize ongoing international disarmament talks as well as the moratorium, itself, Eisenhower resisted giving approval for Millrace until late August 1958, barely two months before the anticipated start of the moratorium. Millrace, quickly renamed Hardtack II, was expanded to thirty-seven tests beginning with Otero on September 12 th and concluding with Titania on October 30 th . Eighteen devices, including Otero and Titania, were safety tests. Three of these tests explored “safety characteristics for underground detonations” in tunnels. Two of the three such tests vented. In this respect, Hardtack II was a harbinger of the future in that the problem of venting was never fully resolved. Other safety tests, designed to give no yield, were more successful with San Juan, Oberon, and Ganymede having “no measurable yield.”

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Texas A&M University Mobile Facility Measurements during TRACER (Field Campaign Report)

One of the main goals of the U.S Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) near Houston, Texas is to improve understanding of how meteorology and aerosols impact storm dynamical and microphysical processes in deep convection to better constrain and improve their model representation. The Houston area is strongly influenced by sea- and bay-breeze circulations that generate convergence and help to initiate and organize deep convection. To properly isolate and understand the roles of varied meteorological conditions and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nucleation particles (INP) distributions in different air masses, co-located thermodynamic, kinematic, and aerosol vertical profile observations are needed. The focus of this campaign was to provide key measurements in air masses both in front of and behind sea/bay breeze fronts moving through the greater Houston area to sample the airmass heterogeneity. The overarching scientific goal of this campaign is to understand how the vertical distributions of both CCN and INP correspond to the inflow layer of deep convection in maritime, background continental, and polluted continental air masses, and how these variations influence deep convection. To fully sample the heterogeneity in both meteorological conditions and aerosols across the sea-breeze front (SBF), Texas A&M University (TAMU) deployed a InterMet 3050A 403 MHz mobile unit launching iMet-4 radiosondes and the new Rapid Onsite Atmospheric Measurement Van (ROAM-V) for aerosol sampling during the TRACER intensive operational period (IOP) from June to September 2022. The suite of instruments deployed on ROAM-V included a condensation particle counter (CPC; GRIMM Model 5.403 CPC), scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS; TSI 3750 detector, TSI 3082 classifier, TSI 3088 neutralizer, TSI 3081A differential mobility analyzer), cloud condensation nuclei counter (Droplet Measurement Technologies CCN counter), micropulse lidar (Droplet Measurement Technologies micropulse lidar [miniMPL]), and a Davis Rotating Uniform size-cut Monitor (DRUM; DRUMAir 4-DRUM). Before sampling at each location, the latitude and longitude were recorded using the Global Positioning System (GPS) on the phone application “My Altitude”. The DRUM data were collected as part of a closely related ARM field campaign and also supported by DOE Atmospheric System Research grant DE-SC0021047. The TAMU team sampled these airmass heterogeneities by strategically choosing deployment sites in a different airmass than the ARM fixed sites in La Porte and Guy, Texas. On days when the sea/bay breeze boundary was pushing inland, the TAMU team would usually sample the airmass on the maritime side of the SBF at a coastal site in Galveston, Texas in the early afternoon (1730-1900 UTC) and then move inland ahead of the SBF to sample the airmass on the continental side during late afternoon (2030-2230). Figure 1 shows the Galveston maritime site and the array of sites for the late afternoon continental measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Direct Measurement of Small Particle Growth and Aging at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains Observatory Field Campaign Report

Two identical Captive Aerosol Growth and Evolution (CAGE) chambers were operated at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory in the late summer and fall of 2021. The field study was scheduled to begin in spring, 2020, but was delayed because of the pandemic. CAGE chambers are designed to expose particles to an environment that mirrors that of the surroundings with or without a controlled perturbation designed to assess a sensitivity. The analysis here focuses on roughly the last two months of the overall study period during which measurements were almost continuous and when several perturbation experiments were conducted. Though the utility of a dual-chamber system is the ability to measure the influence of a single change on top of ambient conditions, both chambers were initially operated in the same way, with ambient air pulled through the gas exchange channel in both and ammonium sulfate particles injected into both. The similar time-dependent particle growth observed in the chambers for those periods provides confidence in differences observed during the subsequent perturbation experiments. The growth rate of particles in the reference chamber into which only ammonium sulfate particles were injected and for which only ambient air was pulled through were used to describe time-of-day averages. The average growth rate was highest in the evening and in the morning after sunrise and lowest in the late afternoon. The sensitivity of particle growth to secondary aerosol precursor gases was studied by adding them at a controlled rate to the ambient air flow pulled through one of the two chambers. Addition of 5 ppb of α-pinene resulted in an average particle growth rate of 4.4 nm hr -1 , compared with that of just 0.8 nm hr -1 in the reference chamber. The added α-pinene also triggered one new particle formation (NPF) event in the early evening just before sunset and another in the morning just after sunrise. Similarly, addition of 5 ppb of SO 2 to one chamber led to a pair of NPF events and to increased particle growth rate, though unlike the impact of added α-pinene, growth was enhanced only during the daytime when OH concentration is highest. The influence of aerosol liquid water on secondary aerosol formation and particle growth was investigated by injecting ammonium sulfate seed particles into one chamber and potassium sulfate particles into the other. Particles were injected into the two chambers four times over a 1.5-day period. The chamber relative humidity (RH) history during and following each injection was used to determine whether each particle type was crystalline or aqueous. For the case when both particle types remained crystalline throughout the period, they were tracked and for the case when they remained aqueous, the magnitude and time-dependence of the growth of both were almost exactly the same. For the other two cases the ammonium sulfate particles deliquesced upon injection and remained aqueous, while the potassium sulfate particles remained crystalline. For those two cases, the aqueous particles grew substantially faster than did the crystalline particles, providing evidence of the role of aerosol liquid water on secondary aerosol formation and particle growth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing a Novel Neutron Time-of-Flight Diagnostic Platform for Z: Ultrafast Pixel Array Camera System

This report describes a Late-Start LDRD project on a compact neutron time-of-flight (nTOF) diagnostic, based on the Ultra-Fast Pixel Array Camera (UPAC) platform. By leveraging advancements in microelectronics, the UPAC nTOF is designed to address existing challenges of current nTOFs at the Z-machine that rely on large scintillators and photomultiplier tubes using bulky, discrete digitizing units hindering scalability with signal routing presenting an additional challenge. The report describes the UPAC diagnostic platform, outlines the calibration of the diagnostic and the latest results of fielding the UPAC as a ride-a-long diagnostic on the Magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) campaigns at the Z-machine supported by the Late-Start LDRD, and finally discusses conclusions and proposed future work.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Evaluation of Refrigerant Leak Characteristics for Different HVAC&R Equipment Types–Phase 2

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technology Office (BTO) and the Air-conditioning, Heating & Refrigeration Technology Institute (AHRTI) collaborated to sponsor an experimental study of refrigerant leak characteristics at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); AHRTI project 9012. The project has been conducted in two phases with objectives to conduct refrigerant leak tests on several heating, ventilating, air-conditioning and refrigeration (HVAC&R) systems under operating conditions representative of actual applications to document the pressure decay rate and the mass flow rate of leaked refrigerant as a function of time. Phase 1 of the project ran from late 2017 to late 2018 with refrigerant leaks imposed on five systems and the collection of data to meet the project objectives. Systems chosen covered three air-conditioning (AC) applications (packaged terminal AC or PTAC, 3-ton residential split system AC, and 5-ton packaged rooftop AC) and two refrigeration applications (split system unit cooler, and standalone display case). AHRTI members donated the test systems used for the project. The systems were tested at two different leak rates (catastrophic high rate simulating full line break and a lower flow rate), two leak locations (high-pressure side and low-pressure side), and two operating conditions (compressor ON or OFF). Phase 1 results were summarized in a project report by Baxter, et al. (2019)1. The leak rates imposed in Phase 1 led to much more rapid charge releases than the more typical much slower rates seen in practice that would take days, weeks, or months to empty a system of its entire charge. For Phase 2, the project sponsors asked that the “higher” leak rate target a total charge release time of about 4 min. This was intended to represent a “reasonable” worst case release scenario to match the refrigerant leak rate assumption used in the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) standard IEC 60335-2-40 (2016 version [IEC 2016]. A charge release time of about 20–40 min (leak release rate 5 to 10 times lower than higher rate) was targeted for the “lower” leak rate. This report provides a summary of the Phase 2 effort. Two additional HVAC systems were selected for testing in this phase. First was a multi-split air-conditioning (MS-AC) system with one outdoor section and two indoor units and a nameplate refrigerant charge of 1.75 kg (3.86 lb.) of R-410A. The MS-AC was tested in cooling only or AC operation. Second was a split system heat pump coupled to two different representative supply duct systems (HP-duct) and a nameplate charge of 3.83 kg (8.44 lb.) of R-410A. This system was tested in both space heating and AC modes. As in Phase 1 of the project, all tests were conducted using R-410A.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

2024 Stor4Build Annual Meeting: Exploring Challenges and Opportunities in Thermal Energy Storage for Buildings

In late August 2024, Stor4Build brought nearly 80 stakeholders from the thermal energy storage industry to Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), including researchers, startups, electric utilities, nonprofits, implementers, state energy efficiency offices, and original equipment manufacturers. During the two-day Stor4Build Annual Meeting, participants engaged in vital discussions about the current challenges and opportunities for scaling thermal energy storage solutions in buildings. The event featured panel discussions led by leading technology experts and industry practitioners, as well as updates on Stor4Build–funded projects from national laboratories, highlighting advancements in the thermal energy storage field crucial to achieving the consortium’s mission.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Controlling Variables for Mercury Vapors in Alpha-4 at Y-12: Two Year Data Collection Update

Multiple sensor packages were deployed at Alpha-4 by SRNL, in collaboration with United Cleanup Oak Ridge LLC (UCOR), to monitor mercury vapor concentrations and meteorological parameters. These sensors collected data, inside and outside of the legacy-use facility, for approximately two years. Though data gaps still exist, particularly in colder months, several controlling variables were identified that govern mercury vapor concentrations within Alpha-4. Temperature, barometric pressure gradients, humidity, and wind speed have been identified as controlling variables. A strong positive correlation was seen between mercury vapor concentrations and temperature which generally followed diurnal fluctuations. Temperatures below approximately 10 degrees Celsius did not show any spikes above the PEL, indicating more work can be performed at any time during the winter months – more data should be collected to confirm consistency in this finding. Additionally, spikes in mercury vapor concentrations above that of the permissible exposure limit (PEL; 100 µg/m 3 ) occurred primarily in late afternoon or evening/overnight hours (between 3 PM and 6 AM), which suggests D&D operations might be best scheduled during morning or daytime hours prior to the late afternoon. However, a limited number of spikes did occur outside of the identified window, although this may be attributed to disturbances in air flow and mercury vapor release from work activities performed inside of the Alpha-4 building. The analysis conducted allows for a strong predictive capability for estimating mercury vapor concentrations based upon accurate meteorological parameters. Still, additional data collection, particularly in the winter months, could help to strengthen the predictive power and validate the identified data trends. Further, increased temporal resolution could also help to better characterize the incipient stages of the increases and decreases in the mercury vapor concentration. Continued monitoring support by SRNL at Y-12 is underway at Alpha-4 to further close remaining data gaps and support deactivation and decommissioning work. Within a collaborative effort with UCOR, the SRNL team is collecting mercury vapor data to study the efficacy of a novel mercury suppressant, FerroBlack® which was recently deployed at Alpha-4. In addition, modifications to the current monitoring setup to increase measurement resolution is also being investigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aeroelastic Validation of the Sandia Offshore Wind Energy Simulator (OWENS) for Vertical-Axis Wind Turbines

Vertical-axis wind turbines (VAWTs) have been the subject of research and development for nearly a century. However, this turbine architecture has fallen in and out of favor on multiple occasions. Beginning in the late 1970s, the U.S. Department of Energy sponsored an extensive experimental program through Sandia National Laboratories which produced a mass of experimental data from several highly instrumented turbines. Turbines designed, built, and tested include the 2 meter, 5 meter, 17 meter, and 34 meter and their respective configurations. This program kicked off a commercial collaboration and resulted in the FloWind turbines. The FloWind turbines had several notable design changes from the experimental turbines that, in conjunction with a general lack of understanding regarding predicting fatigue at the time, led to the majority of the turbines failing prematurely during the late 80s.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temperature and Pressure Instrumentation for LYNM PE1 Chemical Explosive Testing

Underground chemical explosive testing has been conducted at the Nevada National Security Site under the Physics Experiment 1 (PE1) to validate explosive computer modeling and, ultimately, improve the accuracy of subsurface explosive detection. This SAND Report describes the dynamic temperature and pressure measurements within the chamber induced by the chemical explosive for the first of three experiments, PE1-A. The report details the instrumentation used for the experiment, the emplacement of the hardware, and the measured results. Dynamic temperature measurements were accomplished with the use of optical spectrometers and dynamic pressure was measured with a series of high-rated pressure transducers. This report includes details of the design and results of four cavity sensor systems used to measure early-time temperature, early-time pressure, late-time temperature, and late time pressure. The outcomes of PE1-A were used to inform the design of the remaining PE1 series experiments, PE1-B and PE1-DL.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing chemical bioproduction with rational control of bacterial post-translational modifications

Efficient conversion of inexpensive feedstocks to valuable chemicals by microbes is critical for a robust bioeconomy, but the ability to rationally design bacteria is hampered by insufficient knowledge of how post translational modifications (PTMs) control bacterial protein function and thus bioproduction phenotypes. Our study will focus on the lysine acetylation, a ubiquitous bacterial PTM that can affect the function of enzymes in central metabolism that are often critical for bioproduction processes, disrupt transcriptional regulation, and reduce translation. However, most lysine acetylation data is observational, which means that we do not know when, how, and what specific acetylated residues affect protein function and bacterial physiology. For our model host, we will use a Pseudomonas putida strain that we previously engineered to convert lignocellulosic feedstocks into chemicals such as itaconic acid (ITA). With this strain, we use a dynamic two-stage bioproduction process in which ITA is produced during a non-growth associated production phase. Production is highest during growth stages when lysine acetylation is low in other organisms (early stationary phase) and stalls in conditions where acetylation is highest (late stationary phase). The switch from high to stalled ITA production is also correlated with an unexpected increase in acetate levels – the precursor to non-enzymatic lysine acetylation. As such, we predict that lysine acetylation plays a substantial role in regulating the metabolic pathways required for ITA production. We will develop a generalizable approach that combines high-throughput genetic screens and cutting-edge genome engineering with state-of-the-art proteomics, metabolomics, and genetic code expansion methods to identify and modulate lysine acetylation patterns in bacteria. Ultimately, these strategies aim to manipulate protein expression and acetylation patterns to enhance bioproduction phenotypes (e.g., sustained ITA production in late stationary phase).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal Characterization and Exhumation of Northwest San Juan Basin Area, NM

The San Juan Basin (SJB), located in southwestern Colorado northwestern New Mexico, containing Paleozoic through middle Cenozoic strata, formed as a partitioned basin approximately 80 Ma in response to the Laramide orogeny. The SJB is a commercially mature, petroleum-producing basin, and currently being explored for CCUS and geothermal resources. Modern heat flow within the SJB is spatially variable with higher geothermal gradients in its northern and eastern portions. The temporal history of the basin thermal history is essential for understanding capacity for carbon storage and geothermal exploration. We present thermochronometric analyses of two surface and two subsurface samples to constrain spatial-temporal thermal evolution of the northwestern San Juan Basin. Apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronometric analyses were conducted on Cliff House and Kirtland Formation outcrops and subsurface samples of the Ojo Alamo and Pictured Cliffs Formations from a DOE funded, CCUS project pilot-well. In addition, vitrinite reflectance data and 1D basin modelling constrain possible time-temperature pathways of the samples in an area where no previous studies have constrained the uplift/exhumation of the Hogback Monocline using thermochronometry. Modeling suggests that elevated subsurface temperatures developed simultaneously with regional late Oligiocene volcanism in the San Juan Volcanic field and timing of maximum burial in the SJB. Late Miocene to Pliocene cooling/exhumation through the apatite (U-Th)/He partial retention zone support stratigraphic evidence of the Colorado Plateau uplift, possibly regional epeirogenic uplift driven by mantle processes.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structural Evolution of the Hogback Monocline and Its Tectonic Significance in the San Juan Basin

The San Juan Basin is recognized as a Laramide foreland basin. It is located within the Colorado Plateau, a broad tectonic province characterized by a thick sedimentary sequence that was segmented into smaller sub basins during the Late Cretaceous to Paleogene Laramide orogeny. The Hogback Monocline lies along the northwestern margin of the San Juan Basin and is considered a Laramide-age structure formed in response to compressional stress. In this study, we interpret surface and subsurface datasets to construct a structural geological model and evaluate its tectonic significance. Through seismic data, we identify key fault and fold geometries at depth. The seismic dataset used in this study was reprocessed in depth and constrained with well log velocity data to enhance seismic imaging quality. Additionally, we performed well log correlations to identify formation tops and assess variations in basin infill and thickness geometry. A series of structural cross-sections, constructed using seismic data and a high density of boreholes, are presented to evaluate geometric variations along the structure and its evolution during basin development. Furthermore, kinematic restoration and forward modeling analyses were conducted to validate our structural interpretation. This work suggests that the Hogback Monocline formed through fault-propagation folding and flexural slip affecting the pre-Laramide sedimentary sequence under compressional stresses associated with the Laramide orogeny. This structure is interpreted as a high-angle reverse fault that influenced the geometry of the late basin infill. Additionally, monocline bending along the structure may have been controlled by fault relay systems and, in some cases, influenced by strike-slip faulting.

Reyes, Martin [New Mexico Bureau o fGeology and Mi↗
DOE OSTI2021

Muon to electron conversion search in the presence of Al nuclei at the Fermilab Mu2e experiment: Motivation, Design and Progress

The Mu2e experiment aims to find charged lepton flavor violation(CLFV) by measuring the monochromatic electrons from $\mu^- N\rightarrow e^- N$ conversion with an unprecedented single event sensitivity of $3 \times 10^{-17}$. When completed the experiment will improve the current limit by four orders of magnitude and make a previously unexplored phase space available for the search for beyond the standard model physics. Physics motivation for the experiment is discussed and design choices for the detectors and various sub systems are explained in this document. The construction of the Mu2e experiment is well underway and commissioning will begin in late 2022 with first data taking in late 2025 and 4-5 years of data taking thereafter to reach our goal.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Towards Scaling Law Analysis For Spatiotemporal Weather Data

Compute-optimal scaling laws are relatively well studied for NLP and CV, where objectives are typically single-step and targets are comparatively homogeneous. Weather forecasting is harder to characterize in the same framework: autoregressive rollouts compound errors over long horizons, outputs couple many physical channels with disparate scales and predictability, and globally pooled test metrics can disagree sharply with per-channel, late-lead behavior implied by short-horizon training. We extend neural scaling analysis for autoregressive weather forecasting from single-step training loss to long rollouts and per-channel metrics. We quantify (1) how prediction error is distributed across channels and how its growth rate evolves with forecast horizon, (2) if power law scaling holds for test error, relative to rollout length when error is pooled globally, and (3) how that fit varies jointly with horizon and channel for parameter, data, and compute-based scaling axes. We find strong cross-channel and cross-horizon heterogeneity: pooled scaling can look favorable while many channels degrade at late leads. We discuss implications for weighted objectives, horizon-aware curricula, and resource allocation across outputs.

Kiefer Jr, Alexander [ORNL] (ORCID:000000025398874↗
DOE OSTI2024

Personalized, disease-stage specific, rapid identification of immunosuppression in sepsis

Introduction Data overlapping of different biological conditions prevents personalized medical decision-making. For example, when the neutrophil percentages of surviving septic patients overlap with those of non-survivors, no individualized assessment is possible. To ameliorate this problem, an immunological method was explored in the context of sepsis. Methods Blood leukocyte counts and relative percentages as well as the serum concentration of several proteins were investigated with 4072 longitudinal samples collected from 331 hospitalized patients classified as septic (n=286), non-septic (n=43), or not assigned (n=2). Two methodological approaches were evaluated: (i) a reductionist alternative, which analyzed variables in isolation; and (ii) a non-reductionist version, which examined interactions among six (leukocyte-, bacterial-, temporal-, personalized-, population-, and outcome-related) dimensions. Results The reductionist approach did not distinguish outcomes: the leukocyte and serum protein data of survivors and non-survivors overlapped. In contrast, the non-reductionist alternative differentiated several data groups, of which at least one was only composed of survivors (a finding observable since hospitalization day 1). Hence, the non-reductionist approach promoted personalized medical practices: every patient classified within a subset associated with 100% survival subset was likely to survive. The non-reductionist method also revealed five inflammatory or disease-related stages (provisionally named ‘early inflammation, early immunocompetence, intermediary immuno-suppression, late immuno-suppression, or other’). Mortality data validated these labels: both ‘suppression’ subsets revealed 100% mortality, the ‘immunocompetence’ group exhibited 100% survival, while the remaining sets reported two-digit mortality percentages. While the ‘intermediary’ suppression expressed an impaired monocyte-related function, the ‘late’ suppression displayed renal-related dysfunctions, as indicated by high concentrations of urea and creatinine. Discussion The data-driven differentiation of five data groups may foster early and non-overlapping biomedical decision-making, both upon admission and throughout their hospitalization. This approach could evaluate therapies, at personalized level, earlier. To ascertain repeatability and investigate the dynamics of the ‘other’ group, additional studies are recommended.

Immunology↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Polar Vortex and Extreme Weather: The Beast from the East in Winter 2018

Public attention has recently focused on high-impact extreme weather events in midlatitudes that originate in the sub-Arctic. We investigate movements of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and related changes in lower atmospheric circulation during the February-March 2018 “Beast from the East” cold winter event that dramatically affected much of Europe and north-central North America. This study demonstrates that the movement of the SPV is a key linkage in late winter subarctic and northern midlatitude extreme weather events. February–March 2018 saw two types of subarctic-midlatitude weather connections. In the first type, the SPV was displaced from the pole to lower latitudes over North America in February and then was found over northern Siberia in March. Mid-February and mid-March are examples of persistent near vertically aligned geopotential height structures of the atmospheric circulation. These structures over North America and Eurasia advected cold Arctic air southward. The second type of cold surface event was associated with a weak regional SPV and a sudden stratospheric warming event over Europe during the second half of February. These late winter linkage events that arise through dynamic instabilities of the SPV are more common in the last decade, but the potential role of enhanced Arctic amplification is uncertain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Metal-Catalyzed Thermo-Catalytic Decomposition and Continuous Catalyst Generation

In this study, metal dusting is utilized to initiate a two-stage thermo-catalytic decomposition (TCD) process. Stage 1 starts with metal-catalyzed TCD, and in stage 2 the metal-catalyzed carbon catalyzes additional TCD. TEM is presented of the early- versus late-stage TCD to qualitatively illustrate the second-stage TCD by the metal-catalyzed carbons. Corresponding SEM illustrates differences in growth type and surface density between early versus late reaction times, with backscattered imaging differentiating the first- versus second-stage TCD. TGA supports the microscopic inference of a second carbon phase by the presence of an early (low-temperature) reaction peak, characteristic of low-structure or disordered carbon as the second-stage TCD carbon. Raman analysis confirms that the second-stage carbon deposit is more disordered and unstructured, especially at 1000 °C, supported by the ID/IG and La value changes from 0.068 to 0.936 and 65 nm to 4.7 nm, respectively. To further confirm second-stage TCD occurrence upon pre-catalyzed carbons, two carbon blacks are tested. Exposing a combination of edge and basal or exclusively basal sites for the graphitized form, they afford a direct comparison of TCD carbon nanostructure dependence upon the initial carbon catalyst nanostructure. Pre-oxidation of the stainless-steel wool (SSW) prior to TCD is advantageous, accelerating TCD rates and increasing carbon yield relative to the nascent SSW for an equivalent reaction duration.

Chemistry↗