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At least 397 records · Page 22

Interactions of CO2, temperature and management practices: simulations with a modified version of CERES-Wheat

A new growth subroutine was developed for CERES-Wheat, a computer model of wheat (Triticum aestivum) growth and development. The new subroutine simulates canopy photosynthetic response to CO2 concentrations and light levels, and includes the effects of temperature on canopy light-use efficiency. Its performance was compared to the original CERES-Wheat V-2 10 in 30 different cases. Biomass and yield predictions of the two models were well correlated (correlation coefficient r > 0.95). As an application, summer growth of spring wheat was simulated at one site. Modeled crop responses to higher mean temperatures, different amounts of minimum and maximum warming, and doubled CO2 concentrations were compared to observations. The importance of irrigation and nitrogen fertilization in modulating the wheat crop climatic responses were also analyzed. Specifically, in agreement with observations, rainfed crops were found to be more sensitive to CO2 increases than irrigated ones. On the other hand, low nitrogen applications depressed the ability of the wheat crop to respond positively to CO2 increases. In general, the positive effects of high CO2 on grain yield were found to be almost completely counterbalanced by the negative effects of high temperatures. Depending on how temperature minima and maxima were increased, yield changes averaged across management practices ranged from -4% to 8%.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗

Endoscopic surgery in weightlessness: the investigation of basic principles for surgery in space

BACKGROUND: Performing a surgical procedure in weightlessness, also called 0-gravity (0-g), has been shown to be no more difficult than in a 1-g environment if the requirements for the restraint of the patient, operator, surgical hardware, are observed. The performance of laparoscopic and thorascopic procedures in weightlessness, if feasible, would offer several advantages over the performance of an open operation. Concerns about the feasibility of performing minimally invasive procedures in weightlessness have included impaired visualization from the absence of gravitational retraction of the bowel (laparoscopy) or thoracic organs (thoracoscopy) as well as obstruction and interference from floating debris such as blood, pus, and irrigation fluid. The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of performing laparoscopic and thorascopic procedures and the degree of impaired surgical endoscopic visualization in weightlessness. METHODS: From 1993 to 2000, laparoscopic and thorascopic procedures were performed on 10 anesthetized adult pigs weighing approximately 50 kg in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Microgravity Program using a modified KC-135 airplane. The parabolic simulation system for advanced life support was used in this project, and 20 to 40 parabolas were used for laparoscopic or thorascopic investigation, each containing approximately 30 s of 0-g alternating with 2-g pullouts. The animal model was restrained in the supine position on a floor-level Crew Medical Restraint System, and the abdominal cavity was insufflated with carbon dioxide. The intraabdominal and intrathoracic anatomy was visualized in the 1-g, 0-g, and 2-g periods of parabolic flight. Bleeding was created in the animals, and the behavior of the blood in the abdominal and thoracic cavities was observed. In the thoracic cavity, gas insufflation and mechanical retraction was used at times unilaterally to decrease pulmonary ventilation enough to increase the thoracic domain. RESULTS: Visualization was improved in laparoscopy, from tethering of the bowel by the elastic mesentery, and from the strong tendency for debris and blood to adhere to the abdominal wall because of surface tension forces. The lack of adequate thoracic domain made thorascopy more difficult. Fluid in the thoracic cavity did not impair visualization because the fluid at 0-g does not loculate posteriorly, but disperses along the thoracic wall and mediastinal reflections. CONCLUSIONS: Performing minimally invasive procedures instead of open surgical procedures in a weightless environment has theoretical advantages, especially in the ability to prevent cabin atmosphere contamination from surgical fluids (blood, pus, irrigation). Visualization will become more important and practical as the endoscopic hardware is miniaturized from its current form, as endoscopic technology becomes more advanced, and as more surgically capable medical crew officers are present in future long-duration space exploration missions.

short duration↗

Vegetation Water Content Mapping in a Diverse Agricultural Landscape: National Airborne Field Experiment 2006

Mapping land cover and vegetation characteristics on a regional scale is critical to soil moisture retrieval using microwave remote sensing. In aircraft-based experiments such as the National Airborne Field Experiment 2006 (NAFE 06), it is challenging to provide accurate high resolution vegetation information, especially on a daily basis. A technique proposed in previous studies was adapted here to the heterogenous conditions encountered in NAFE 06, which included a hydrologically complex landscape consisting of both irrigated and dryland agriculture. Using field vegetation sampling and ground-based reflectance measurements, the knowledge base for relating the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and the vegetation water content was extended to a greater diversity of agricultural crops, which included dryland and irrigated wheat, alfalfa, and canola. Critical to the generation of vegetation water content maps, the land cover for this region was determined from satellite visible/infrared imagery and ground surveys with an accuracy of 95.5% and a kappa coefficient of 0.95. The vegetation water content was estimated with a root mean square error of 0.33 kg/sq m. The results of this investigation contribute to a more robust database of global vegetation water content observations and demonstrate that the approach can be applied with high accuracy. Keywords: Vegetation, field experimentation, thematic mapper, NDWI, agriculture.

Cosh, Michael H.↗

An Integrated Hydrological and Water Management Study of the Entire Nile River System - Lake Victoria to Nile Delta

The Nile basin River system spans 3 million km(exp 2) distributed over ten nations. The eight upstream riparian nations, Ethiopia, Eretria, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, Tanzania and Kenya are the source of approximately 86% of the water inputs to the Nile, while the two downstream riparian countries Sudan and Egypt, presently rely on the river's flow for most of the their needs. Both climate and agriculture contribute to the complicated nature of Nile River management: precipitation in the headwaters regions of Ethiopia and Lake Victoria is variable on a seasonal and inter-annual basis, while demand for irrigation water in the arid downstream region is consistently high. The Nile is, perhaps, one of the most difficult trans-boundary water issue in the world, and this study would be the first initiative to combine NASA satellite observations with the hydrologic models study the overall water balance in a to comprehensive manner. The cornerstone application of NASA's Earth Science Research Results under this project are the NASA Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) and the USDA Atmosphere-land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model. These two complementary research results are methodologically independent methods for using NASA observations to support water resource analysis in data poor regions. Where an LDAS uses multiple sources of satellite data to inform prognostic simulations of hydrological process, ALEXI diagnoses evapotranspiration and water stress on the basis of thermal infrared satellite imagery. Specifically, this work integrates NASA Land Data Assimilation systems into the water management decision support systems that member countries of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD, located in Nairobi, Kenya) use in water resource analysis, agricultural planning, and acute drought response to support sustainable development of Nile Basin water resources. The project is motivated by the recognition that accurate, frequent, and spatially distributed estimates of the water balance are necessary for effective water management. This creates a challenge for watersheds that are large, include data poor regions, and/or span multiple nations. All of these descriptors apply to the Nile River basin, yet successful management of the Nile is critical for development and political stability in the region. For this reason, improved hydrological data to support cooperative water management in the Nile basin is a priority for USAID, the US State Department, the World Bank and other international organizations. In this project, the U.S. based research team is working with partners at RCMRD, Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), and their member national-level agencies to develop satellite-based land cover maps, satellite-derived evapotranspiration estimates (using the ALEXI algorithm), and NASA's Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) customized to match identified information needs. The cornerstone applied sciences product of the project is the development of a customized "Nile LDAS" that will produce optimal estimates of hydrological states and fluxes, as vetted against the in situ observations of NBI and RCMRD member organizations and independent satellite-derived hydrological estimates. Nile LDAS will be applied to improve the reliability of emerging Decision Support Systems in applications that include drought monitoring, reservoir management, and irrigation planning. The end-users such as RCMRD, NBI, Ethiopian and Kenya Meteorological and Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNet) will be the eventual benefactors of this work. There will be a capacity building process involving the above end-user organizations and transfer the models and the results for these organizations to execute for future use. The team has already initiated this study and the early results of first years' work are shown. The plan is to complete this work by late 2013.

Habib, Shahid↗

Overview of US AID-World Bank-NASA Collaboration to Address Water Management Issues in the MENA Region

The World Bank, USAID and NASA have recently established a joint project to study multiple issues pertaining to water related applications in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region. The main concentration of the project is on utilization of remote sensing data and hydrological models to address crop irrigation and mapping, flood mapping and forecasting, evapotranspiration and drought problems prevalent in this large geographic area. Additional emphases are placed on understanding the climate impact on these areas as well. Per IPCC 2007 report, by the end of this century MENA region is projected to experience an increase of 3 C to 5 C rise in mean temperatures and a 20% decline in precipitation. This poses a serious problem for this geographic zone especially when majority of the hydrological consumption is for the agriculture sector and the remaining amount is for domestic consumption. The remote sensing data from space is one of the best ways to study such complex issues and further feed into the decision support systems. NASA's fleet of Earth Observing satellites offer a great vantage point from space to look at the globe and provide vital signs necessary to maintain healthy and sustainable ecosystem. These observations generate multiple products such as soil moisture, global precipitation, aerosols, cloud cover, normalized difference vegetation index, land cover/use, ocean altimetry, ocean salinity, sea surface winds, sea surface temperature, ozone and atmospheric gases, ice and snow measurements, and many more. All of the data products, models and research results are distributed-via the Internet freely through out the world. This project will utilize several NASA models such as global Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) to generate hydrological states and fluxes in near real time. These LDAS products will then be further compared with other NASA satellite observations (MODIS, VIIRS, TRMM, etc.) and other discrete models to compare and optimize evapotranspiration, soil moisture and crop irrigation, droUght assessment and water balance. The floods being a critical disaster in many of the MENA countries, NASA's global flood mapping and modeling framework (CREST) will be customized for country specific needs and delivered to the remote sensing organizations for their future use. Finally, capacity building is a critical part of this project and NASA will assist in this effort as well.

Habib, Shahid↗

Estimating the Relative Water Content of Leaves in a Cotton Canopy

Remotely sensing plant canopy water status remains a long-term goal of remote sensing research. Established approaches to estimating canopy water status the Crop Water Stress Index, the Water Deficit Index and the Equivalent Water Thickness involve measurements in the thermal or reflective infrared. Here we report plant water status estimates based upon analysis of polarized visible imagery of a cotton canopy measured by ground Multi-Spectral Polarization Imager (MSPI). Such estimators potentially provide access to the plant hydrological photochemistry that manifests scattering and absorption effects in the visible spectral region.Twice during one day, +- 3 hours from solar noon, we collected polarized imagery and relative water content data on a cotton test plot located at the Arid Land Agricultural Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Maricopa, AZ. The test plot, a small portion of a large cotton field, contained stressed plants ready for irrigation. The evening prior to data collection we irrigated several rows of plants within the test plot. Thus, ground MSPI imagery from both morning and afternoon included cotton plants with a range of water statuses. Data analysis includes classifying the polarized imagery into sunlit reflecting, sunlit transmitting, shaded foliage and bare soil. We estimate the leaf surface reflection and interior reflection based upon the per pixel polarization and sunview directions. We compare our cotton results with our prior polarization results for corn and soybean leaves measured in the lab and corn leaves measured in the field.

Cotton Canopy↗

A Comparison of Satellite Data-Based Drought Indicators in Detecting the 2012 Drought in the Southeastern US

The drought of 2012 in the North America devastated agricultural crops and pastures, further damaging agriculture and livestock industries and leading to great losses in the economy. The drought maps of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) and various drought monitoring techniques based on the data collected by the satellites orbiting in space such as the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are inter-compared during the 2012 drought conditions in the southeastern United States. The results indicated that spatial extent of drought reported by USDM were in general agreement with those reported by the MODIS-based drought maps. GRACE-based drought maps suggested that the southeastern US experienced widespread decline in surface and root-zone soil moisture and groundwater resources. Disagreements among all drought indicators were observed over irrigated areas, especially in Lower Mississippi region where agriculture is mainly irrigated. Besides, we demonstrated that time lag of vegetation response to changes in soil moisture and groundwater partly contributed to these disagreements, as well.

drought indicators↗

Spatial Variations in Crop Growing Seasons Pivotal to Reproduce Global Fluctuations in Maize and Wheat Yields

Testing our understanding of crop yield responses to weather fluctuations at global scale is notoriously hampered by limited information about underlying management conditions, such as cultivar selection or fertilizer application. Here, we demonstrate that accounting for observed spatial variations in growing seasons increases the variance in reported national maize and wheat yield anomalies that can be explained by process-based model simulations from 34 to 58% and 47 to 54% across the 10 most weather-sensitive main producers, respectively. For maize, the increase in explanatory power is similar to the increase achieved by accounting for water stress, as compared to simulations assuming perfect water supply in both rainfed and irrigated agriculture. Representing water availability constraints in irrigation is of second-order importance. We improve the model’s explanatory power by better representing crops’ exposure to observed weather conditions, without modifying the weather response itself. This growing season adjustment now allows for a close reproduction of heat wave and drought impacts on crop yields.

Maize↗

CMIP6 Historical Simulations (1850‐2014) with GISS‐E2.1

Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850‐‐2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth System ModelE2.1. The GISS‐E2.1 ensembles are more sensitive to forcing than their CMIP5 predecessors (GISS‐E2), but warm less during recent decades due to reduced total forcing. This forcing reduction is attributed to an increase in longwave opacity in pre‐industrial simulations, resulting in an atmosphere less sensitive to further increases in opacity that result from rising greenhouse gas concentrations. This demonstrates the importance of the base climatology to forcing and forced climate trends. Most model versions match observed temperature trends since 1979 from the ocean to the stratosphere. The choice of ocean model is important to the transient climate response, as found in CMIP5 GISS‐E2: the model that more efficiently exports heat to the deep ocean shows a smaller rise in tropospheric temperature. Model sea level rise over the historical period is traced to excessive drawdown of aquifers to meet irrigation demand with a smaller contribution from thermal expansion. This shows how fully coupled models can provide indirect observational constraints upon forcing, in this case, constraining irrigation rates with observed sea level changes. The overall agreement of GISS‐E2.1 with observed trends is familiar from evaluation of its predecessors, as is the conclusion that these trends are almost entirely anthropogenic in origin.

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Ea↗

Improving Drought Monitoring for the Middle East and North Africa Region via Data Assimilation Using the NASA Land Information System (LIS)

Food and water security become an increasingly pressing concern for countries within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region under climate change. Droughts are among the most important issues facing this region in both economic and social terms, which have become much more severe in recent decades. An effective drought monitoring and early warning system is, therefore, critical to support drought impact assessment and risk management. This presentation describes the effort to improve the simulation of hydrological conditions for such semi-arid environment by Noah Multi-parameterization Land Surface Model within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) via assimilating remotely sensed leaf area index and soil moisture in the presence of irrigation. Multi-source satellite evapotranspiration products are used to evaluate the model performance under the impact of the choice of met-forcings, the presence of irrigation and data assimilation. The improved model configuration is aimed to deliver a better soil moisture estimation for the composite drought indicator (CDI) for drought monitoring and to provide a better initial condition in support for hydrological drought forecasting.

Wanshu Nie↗

Remote monitoring of agricultural systems using NDVI time series and machine learning methods: a tool for an adaptive agricultural policy

This study aims to provide accurate information about changes in agricultural systems (AS) using phenological metrics derived from the NDVI time series. Use of such information could help land managers optimize land use choices and monitor the status of agricultural lands, under a variety of environmental and socioeconomic conditions. For this purpose, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI data were used to derive phenological metrics over the Oum Er-Rbia basin (central Morocco). Random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) classifiers were explored and compared on their ability to classify AS classes over the study area. Four main AS classes have been considered: (1) irrigated annual crop (IAC), (2) irrigated perennial crop (IPC), (3) rainfed area (RA), and (4) fallow (FA). By comparing the accuracy of the three classifiers, the RF method showed the best performance with an overall accuracy of 0.97 and kappa coefficient of 0.96.The RF method was then chosen to examine time variations in AS over a 16-year period (2000–2016). The AS main variations were detected and evaluated for the four AS classes. These variations have been found to be linked well with other indicators of local agricultural land management, as well as the historical agricultural drought changes over the study area. Overall, the results present a tool for decision makers to improve agricultural management and provide a different perspective in understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of agricultural systems.

Youssef Lebrini↗

Combining Satellite Data and Spatial Analysis to Assess the UHI Amplitude and Structure within Urban Areas: The Case of Moroccan Cities

Landsat-8 surface temperature and the European Space Agency land cover are used to assess the impact of land cover on the Urban Heat Island (UHI) and Urban Heat Sink (UHS). We analyzed five Moroccan cities selected for their different local climate, size, and typology during summer at three different spatial scales. The results show multiple causes defining the different forms and amplitudes of the UHI, namely: the ambient climate, the proximity to the sea, the presence of landscaped areas, and the color of building roofs and walls. Contrary to what was expected, the vegetation was not systematically an island of coolness, either because of its typology or its irrigation status. In the coastal cities of Tangier and Casablanca, UHIs around 20°C are observed on the seaside, whereas a UHS of up to 11°C is observed between the city center and the southern periphery of Casablanca. A moderate amplitude UHI of 7°C is formed in the mountainous city of Ifrane. For cities built in desert-like environments, well-defined UHSs between 9°C and 12°C are observed in Smara and Marrakech, respectively. At a finer scale, towns recorded lower temperatures than their immediate surroundings, which are attributed to evaporation from irrigated plants.

Laila El Ghazouani↗

KSC to EDEN ISS: Outredgeous Lettuce Growth on the Passive Porous Tube Nutrient Delivery System (PPTNDS)

EDEN ISS is a controlled environment greenhouse established near the Neumayer Station III in Antarcticawith the mission to enable fresh crop production for the crew who are working in this remote location. EDEN provides a space to conduct plant biology and related research in a unique and isolated controlled environment (CE), while providing a platform to test developing methods relevant to long duration manned space missions. In 2021, Kennedy Space Center (KSC) scientist Jess Bunchek fulfilled a one-year mission at EDEN. During that time a variety of fresh crops were grown to record horticultural and microbiological data as well as provide the crew with fresh food to eat. One method for crop growth included an experimental irrigation system called the Passive Porous Tube Nutrient Delivery System (PPTNDS) which was developed at KSC as a microgravity-capable plant irrigation system designed to support Space Plant Biology investigations and/or crop growth during space missions. The PPTNDS was employed to grow Outredgeous Lettuce (OL) during two growouts at EDEN, (harvesting at Day After Planting (DAP) 61 and 63) and two growouts at KSC where plant growth and micro sample data were captured. This paper presents the data collected from the PPTNDS and compares it to growth on a Nutrient Film Technique (NFT) hydroponic system operated in the same environment. The result shows a system that grows OL at a reduced rate compared to the NFT system but uses less water and crew interaction to operate.

Jacob Torres↗

Maipo River Valley Agriculture: Determining Crop Coefficients Using Remote Sensing for the Maipo River Valley Basin in Chile

Agriculture is the primary use of water in the Maipo River basin of Central Chile, accounting for ~ 75% of the total demand. Assessment of irrigation needs for agricultural production has commonly relied on reference crop coefficients (Kc) derived from geographic and climatic conditions that differ from those of Chile. In partnership with the Centro de Información de Recursos Naturales (CIREN), this work focused on calculating site-specific crop coefficients tailored to crop production in the water-stressed Maipo River Valley. Two distinct approaches were implemented, each relying on remotely-sensed Earth observation datasets from NASA over consecutive growing seasons from 2019 to 2022. The first method estimated Kc values based on their linear relationship with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from either Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) or Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) surface reflectance. The second technique leveraged information from the ISS Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) by computing the ratio between actual crop evapotranspiration (ET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET). Both procedures showed promising results that can build on one another. The former approach best captured vegetation signals of annual crops while the latter appeared suited for perennials. Overall, this study provides a strong basis and novel way to accurately estimate Kc using remote sensing, with the potential for improved irrigation management and reduction in water consumption.

Benjamin Goffin↗

Determining Crop Coefficients Using Remote Sensing for the Maipo River Valley Basin in Chile

Agriculture is the primary use of water in the Maipo River Valley of Central Chile, accounting for ~ 75% of the total demand. Assessment of irrigation needs for agricultural production has commonly relied on reference crop coefficients (Kc) derived from geographic and climatic conditions that differ from those of Chile. This work focused on calculating site-specific Kc values tailored to crop production in the water-stressed Maipo River Valley over consecutive growing seasons from 2019 to 2022. Two distinct approaches were implemented, each relying on remotely-sensed NASA Earth observation datasets. The first method estimated Kc values based on the linear relationship with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from either Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) or Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) surface reflectance. The second technique leveraged information from the ISS Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) by computing the ratio between actual crop evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration. The former approach best captured vegetation signals of annual crops while the latter appeared best suited for perennials. Overall, this study provides a strong basis and novel way to accurately estimate Kc using remote sensing, with the potential for improved irrigation management and reduction in water consumption.

Rishudh Thadur↗

Groundwater Depletion in California’s Central Valley Accelerates During Megadrought

Groundwater provides nearly half of irrigation water supply, and it enables resilience during drought, but in many regions of the world, it remains poorly, if at all managed. In heavily agricultural regions like California’s Central Valley, where groundwater management is being slowly implemented over a 27-year period that began in 2015, groundwater provides two-thirds or more of irrigation water during drought, which has led to falling water tables, drying wells, subsiding land, and its long-term disappearance. Here we use nearly two decades of observations from NASA’s GRACE satellite missions and show that the rate of groundwater depletion in the Central Valley has been accelerating since 2003 (1.86 km3 /yr, 1961-2021; 2.41 km3 /yr, 2003- 2021; 8.58 km3 /yr, 2019-2021), a period of megadrought in southwestern North America. Results suggest the need for expedited implementation of groundwater management in the Central Valley to ensure its availability during the increasingly intense droughts of the future.

Hydrology↗

Aconcagua Basin Agriculture: Analyzing Hydrological Norms, Evapotranspiration, and Soil Moisture to Assess Crop Water Demand and Water Usage in Chile’s Aconcagua River Basin

The Aconcagua basin has experienced a prolonged drought since 2010, posing a significant concern to the agricultural sector, which contributes to 12% of the national agriculture output. Reduced precipitation and warmer conditions have led to water constraints for agricultural activities. As the agriculture sector relies more on irrigation, there has been a decline in surface water availability and a shrinking groundwater supply, both primarily sourced from snow and glacial melt. This study focuses on evaluating crop water demand and water usage in the Aconcagua Basin, leveraging in-situ and available satellite data from Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), 1-km downscaled Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Global Precipitation Measurement Mission IMERG (GPM), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI). Remote sensing hydrologic norms from pre- and intra-drought conditions provided a baseline for our water use analysis. We have identified areas of the basin where water usage is exaggerated compared to other regions by analyzing soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and vegetation index trends across agricultural lands. The study highlights the presence of irrigation and exaggerated water usage categorized by crop type while normalizing the data by the quantity of water allocation (m3/s) to each subregion. The findings have the potential to assist our partners, the Centro de Información de Recursos Naturales (CIREN) and the Ministry of Agriculture, in refining water allocation approaches; showcasing the feasibility of leveraging remote sensing and earth observation datasets to monitor agricultural practices within the context of water scarcity.

Remote sensing↗

Wheat Crop Traits Conferring High Yield Potential May Also Improve Yield Stability Under Climate Change

Increasing genetic wheat yield potential is considered by many as critical to increasing global wheat yields and production, baring major changes in consumption patterns. Climate change challenges breeding by making target environments less predictable, altering regional productivity and potentially increasing yield variability. Here we used a crop simulation model solution in the SIMPLACE framework to explore yield sensitivity to select trait characteristics (radiation use efficiency [RUE], fruiting efficiency and light extinction coefficient) across 34 locations representing the world’s wheat-producing environments, determining their relationship to increasing yields, yield variability and cultivar performance. The magnitude of the yield increase was trait-dependent and differed between irrigated and rainfed environments. RUE had the most prominent marginal effect on yield, which increased by about 45 % and 33 % in irrigated and rainfed sites, respectively, between the minimum and maximum value of the trait. Altered values of light extinction coefficient had the least effect on yield levels. Higher yields from improved traits were generally associated with increased inter-annual yield variability (measured by standard deviation), but the relative yield variability (as coefficient of variation) remained largely unchanged between base and improved genotypes. This was true under both current and future climate scenarios. In this context, our study suggests higher wheat yields from these traits would not increase climate risk for farmers and the adoption of cultivars with these traits would not be associated with increased yield variability.

Climate change↗