U.S. Iron and Steel Sector and Potential Trading with China and India: Analysis with ISEEM Energy Model
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29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
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Gauging Improvements in Urban Building Energy Policy in India
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29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Smart Grid Actualization in India using Advanced Converters.
Abstract not provided.
Johnson, Jay Tillay↗
Observation of sub-3nm particles and new particle formation at an urban location in India
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Atmospheric ice nuclei concentration measurements over a high altitude-station in the Western Ghats, India
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
An assessment of the global cooling supply chain and implications for critical minerals
The global room air conditioner (AC) industry has undergone rapid growth, and the U.S. and India now face new supply chain risks due to China’s dominant role in manufacturing and driving demand. As India’s room AC market and related electricity consumption increases with continued economic development, it faces dual challenges of supply chain vulnerabilities and power grid blackouts from higher peak loads. To mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities for high-efficiency cooling equipment and critical mineral inputs to AC components, there is an increasing need to diversify the supply chain and address energy security and peak load risks to both the U.S. and India. This report assesses the potential for diversifying supply chains and scaling up manufacturing of highly efficient cooling equipment technologies and related critical mineral inputs in the U.S. and India. Successful cooperation on these technologies will enable the U.S., India, and their Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) partners to diversify AC supply chains while meeting India’s large and growing demand for efficient cooling. In the similarly concentrated supply chain for critical minerals, the U.S. and India can work with Japan and Australia to leverage each country’s strengths in diversifying mining, processing, and refining while pursuing alternatives to materials with high supply chain risks and supporting increased recycling and circular economy approaches.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Complete genome sequencing and evolutionary analysis of Indian isolates of Dengue virus type 2
Highlights: •Complete genome of Indian DENV-2 was deciphered for the first time in this study. •The recent Indian DENV-2 revealed presence of many unique amino acid residues. •Genotype shift (American to Cosmopolitan) characterizes evolution of DENV-2 in India. •Circulation of a unique clade of DENV-2 in South Asia was identified. -- Abstract: Dengue is the most important arboviral infection of global public health significance. It is now endemic in most parts of the South East Asia including India. Though Dengue virus type 2 (DENV-2) is predominantly associated with major outbreaks in India, complete genome information of Indian DENV-2 is not available. In this study, the full-length genome of five DENV-2 isolates (four from 2001 to 2011 and one from 1960), from different parts of India was determined. The complete genome of the Indian DENV-2 was found to be 10,670 bases long with an open reading frame coding for 3391 amino acids. The recent Indian DENV-2 (2001–2011) revealed a nucleotide sequence identity of around 90% and 97% with an older Indian DENV-2 (1960) and closely related Sri Lankan and Chinese DENV-2 respectively. Presence of unique amino acid residues and non-conservative substitutions in critical amino acid residues of major structural and non-structural proteins was observed in recent Indian DENV-2. Selection pressure analysis revealed positive selection in few amino acid sites of the genes encoding for structural and non-structural proteins. The molecular phylogenetic analysis based on comparison of both complete coding region and envelope protein gene with globally diverse DENV-2 viruses classified the recent Indian isolates into a unique South Asian clade within Cosmopolitan genotype. A shift of genotype from American to Cosmopolitan in 1970s characterized the evolution of DENV-2 in India. Present study is the first report on complete genome characterization of emerging DENV-2 isolates from India and highlights the circulation of a unique clade in South Asia.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
The Response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon to Temporal and Spatial Variations in Absorbing Aerosol Radiative Forcing
Previous studies on the response of the South Asian summer monsoon to the direct radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic absorbing aerosols have emphasized the role of premonsoonal aerosol forcing. This study examines the roles of aerosol forcing in both pre- and postonset periods using the Community Earth System Model, version 1.0.4, with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4. Simulations were perturbed by model-derived radiative forcing applied (i) only during the premonsoonal period (May–June), (ii) only during the monsoonal period (July–August), and (iii) throughout both periods. Soil water storage is found to retain the effects of premonsoonal forcing into succeeding months, resulting in monsoonal central India drying. Monsoonal forcing is found to dry all of India through local responses. Large-scale responses, such as the meridional rotation of monsoon jet during June and its weakening during July–August, are significant only when aerosol forcing is present throughout both premonsoonal and monsoonal periods. Monsoon responses to premonsoonal forcing by the model-derived “realistic” distribution versus a uniform wide-area distribution were compared. Both simulations exhibit central India drying in June. June precipitation over northwestern India (increase) and southwestern India (decrease) is significantly changed under realistic but not under wide-area forcing. Finally, the same aerosol forcing is found to dry or moisten the July–August period following the warm or cool phase of the simulations’ ENSO-like internal variability. The selection of years used for analysis may affect the precipitation response obtained, but the overall effect seems to be an increase in rainfall variance over northwest and southwest India.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Evidence for Highly Variable, Region-Specific Patterns of T-Cell Epitope Mutations Accumulating in Mycobacterium tuberculosis Strains
Vaccines that confer protection through induction of adaptive T-cell immunity rely on understanding T-cell epitope (TCE) evolution induced by immune escape. This is poorly understood in tuberculosis (TB), an ancient, chronic disease, where CD4 T-cell immunity is of recognized importance. We probed 905 functionally validated, curated human CD4 T cell epitopes in 79 Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) whole genomes from India. This screen resulted in identifying 64 mutated epitopes in these strains initially using a computational pipeline and subsequently verified by single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis. SNP based phylogeny revealed the 79 Mtb strains to cluster to East African Indian (EAI), Central Asian Strain (CAS), and Beijing (BEI) lineages. Eighty-nine percent of the mutated T-cell epitopes (mTCEs) identified in the 79 Mtb strains from India has not previously been reported. These mTCEs were encoded by genes with high nucleotide diversity scores including seven mTCEs encoded by six antigens in the top 10% of rapidly divergent Mtb genes encoded by these strains. Using a T cell functional assay readout, we demonstrate 62% of mTCEs tested to significantly alter CD4 T-cell IFNγ and/or IL2 secretion with associated changes in predicted HLA-DR binding affinity: the gain of function mutations displayed higher predicted HLA-DR binding affinity and conversely mutations resulting in loss of function displayed lower predicted HLA-DR binding affinity. Most mutated antigens belonged to the cell wall/cell processes, and, intermediary metabolism and respiration families though all known Mtb proteins encoded mutations. Analysis of the mTCEs in an SNP database of 5,310 global Mtb strains identified 82% mTCEs to be significantly more prevalent in Mtb strains isolated from India, including 36 mTCEs identified exclusively in strains from India. These epitopes had a significantly higher predicted binding affinity to HLA-DR alleles that were highly prevalent in India compared to HLA-DR alleles rare in India, highlighting HLA-DR maybe an important driver of these mutations. This first evidence of region-specific TCE mutations potentially employed by Mtb to escape host immunity has important implications for TB vaccine design.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model
Daily moderate rainfall events, which constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 through 2005. On the other hand, mean and extreme near-surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4) and prescribed land cover of years 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC), which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over central India coincides with the region of decrease in forest and increase in crop cover. Our results also show that LULCC alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by a maximum of 1–1.2 °C, which is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease in forest cover and simultaneous increase in crops not only reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, but also contributes toward decrease in moisture convergence through reduced surface roughness. These factors act together in reducing significantly the moderate rainfall events and the amount of rainfall in that category over central India. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean. As a result, enhanced warming at the surface and greater decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India compared to the earlier set of simulations are noticed. Results from these additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of LULCC in the decrease in moderate rainfall events and increase in daily mean and extreme temperature over India. Therefore, this study demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over India during the monsoon season. Although, the regional climate model helps in better resolving land–atmosphere feedbacks over the Indian region, the inferences do depend on the fidelity of the model in capturing the features of Indian monsoon realistically. Lastly, it is proposed that similar studies using a suite of climate models will further enrich our understanding about the role of LULCC in the Indian monsoon climate.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Examination of lead concentrations in new decorative enamel paints in four countries with different histories of activity in lead paint regulation
Paints with high lead concentrations (ppm) continue to be sold around the world in many developing countries and those with economies in transition representing a major preventable environmental health hazard that is being increased as the economies expand and paint consumption is increasing. Prior lead paint testing had been performed in Brazil and India and these countries were selected to examine the impact of a new regulatory limit in Brazil and the impact of efforts of non-governmental organizations and others to stop the use of lead compounds in manufacturing paints. Armenia and Kazakhstan, in Central Asia, were selected because no information on lead concentration in those regions was available, no regulatory activities were evident and non-governmental organizations in the IPEN network were available to participate. Another objective of this research was to evaluate the lead loading (µg/cm{sup 2}) limit determined by X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) for areas on toys that are too small to obtain a sample of sufficient size for laboratory analysis. The lead concentrations in more than three-fourths of the paints from Armenia and Kazakhstan exceeded 90 ppm, the limit in the United States, and 600 ppm, the limit in Brazil. The percentages were about one-half as high in Brazil and India. The average concentration in paints purchased in Armenia, 25,000 ppm, is among the highest that has been previously reported, that in Kazakhstan, 15,700 ppm, and India, 16,600, about median. The average concentration in Brazil, 5600 ppm, is among the lowest observed. Paints in Brazil that contained an average of 36,000 ppm before the regulatory limit became effective were below detection (<9 ppm) in samples collected in the current study. The lack of any apparent public monitoring of paint lead content as part of regulatory enforcement makes it difficult to determine whether the regulation was a major factor contributing to the decline in lead use in these paints. Using data from the current study and those available from other studies 24 of 28 paints from major brands in India decreased from high concentrations to 90 ppm or lower. Since lead concentrations in golden yellow paints from these brands were found to decrease to ≤90 ppm, it is possible that all 28 of these paints now contain ≤90 ppm since yellow paints usually have the highest lead concentrations. Other brands in Brazil and India that have been analyzed only one time had lead concentrations up to 59,000 ppm and 134,000 ppm, respectively. Less than one-third of the paints had notations on their labels with information about lead content and these were sometimes inaccurate. The label from one brand indicating “no added lead” contained paint with 134,000 ppm lead, the highest found in this study. Three percent (3 of 98) of the paints with surface lead loading that did not exceed 2 µg/cm{sup 2}, the limit established by the Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act for small areas on toys, contained greater than 90 ppm lead and thus were false negatives. Of the new paint samples that contained ≤600 ppm, 88% contained ≤90 ppm. Of the samples that contained ≤90 ppm, 97% contained ≤45 ppm and 92% contained ≤15 ppm. Based on these data it appears to be technically feasible to manufacture paints containing ≤90 ppm and in many cases to produce paints that have lead concentrations that do not exceed 15 ppm. - Highlights: • Brazilian paints with high lead (avg. 36,000 ppm) contained <9 ppm after regulation. • Lead in major Indian paint brands decreased to low levels by efforts of NGOs/others. • Most paints with lead ≤600 ppm also are ≤90 ppm and many also ≤15 ppm. • At the CPSIA limit of 2 µg Pb/cm{sup 2} for small areas on toys, 3% exceeded 90 ppm lead. • Most paint brands in Armenia and Kazakhstan based/manufactured outside the country.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Air-conditioning adoption and electricity demand highlight climate change mitigation–adaptation tradeoffs
Abstract We elucidate mid-century climate change impacts on electricity demand accounting for endogenous adoption of residential air-conditioning (AC) in affluent, cooler countries in Europe, and in poorer, hotter states in India. By 2050, in a high-warming scenario (SSP585) AC prevalence grows twofold in Europe and fourfold in India, reaching around 40% in both regions. We document a mitigation-adaptation tradeoff: AC expansion reduces daily heat exposures by 150 million and 3.8 billion person degree-days (PDDs), but increases annual electricity demand by 34 TWh and 168 TWh in Europe and India, respectively (corresponding to 2% and 15% of today’s consumption). The increase in adoption and use of AC would result in an additional 130 MMTCO2, of which 120 MMTCO2 in India alone, if the additional electricity generated were produced with today’s power mix. The tradeoff varies geographically and across income groups: a one PDD reduction in heat exposure in Europe versus India necessitates five times more electricity (0.53 kWh vs 0.1 kWh) and two times more emissions (0.16 kgCO $$_2$$ 2 vs 0.09 kgCO $$_2$$ 2 ), on average. The decomposition of demand drivers offers important insights on how such tradeoff can be moderated through policies promoting technology-based and behavioral-based adaptation strategies.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Invisible water, visible impact: groundwater use and Indian agriculture under climate change
India is one of the world's largest food producers, making the sustainability of its agricultural system of global significance. Groundwater irrigation underpins India's agriculture, currently boosting crop production by enough to feed 170 million people. Groundwater overexploitation has led to drastic declines in groundwater levels, threatening to push this vital resource out of reach for millions of small-scale farmers who are the backbone of India's food security. Historically, losing access to groundwater has decreased agricultural production and increased poverty. We take a multidisciplinary approach to assess climate change challenges facing India's agricultural system, and to assess the effectiveness of large-scale water infrastructure projects designed to meet these challenges. We find that even in areas that experience climate change induced precipitation increases, expansion of irrigated agriculture will require increasing amounts of unsustainable groundwater. Finally, the large proposed national river linking project has limited capacity to alleviate groundwater stress. Thus, without intervention, poverty and food insecurity in rural India is likely to worsen.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector
The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’s and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing details are represented, in addition to the extensive data compiled from recent studies on bottom-up representation of efficiency measures for the sector. We also defined various mitigation scenarios including long-term production trends to project country-specific production, energy use, trading, carbon emissions, and costs of mitigation. Such analyses can provide useful information to assist policy-makers when considering and shaping future emissions mitigation strategies and policies. The technical objective is to analyze the costs of production and CO 2 emission reduction in the U.S, China, and India’s iron and steel sectors under different emission reduction scenarios, using the ISEEM-IS as a cost optimization model. The scenarios included in this project correspond to various CO 2 emission reduction targets for the iron and steel sector under different strategies such as simple CO 2 emission caps (e.g., specific reduction goals), emission reduction via commodity trading, and emission reduction via carbon trading.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Interannual variability of Indian monsoon rainfall
The interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon and its relationships with other atmospheric fluctuations were studied in hopes of gaining some insight into the predicability of the rainfall. Rainfall data for 31 meteorological subdivisions over India were provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Fifty-three years of seasonal mean anomaly sea-level pressure (SLP) fields were used to determine if any relationships could be detected between fluctuations in Northern Hemisphere surface pressure and Indian monsoon rainfall. Three month running mean sea-level pressure anomalies at Darwin (close to one of the centers of the Southern Oscillation) were compiled for months preceding and following extreme years for rainfall averaged over all of India. Anomalies are small before the monsoon, but are quite large in months following the summer season. However, there is a large decrease in Darwin pressure for months preceding a heavy monsoon, while a deficient monsoon is preceded by a sharp increase in Darwin pressure. If a time series is constructed of the tendency of Darwin SLP between the Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) and a correlation coefficient is computed between it and 81 years of rainfall average over all of India, one gets a C. C. of -.46, which is higher than any other previously computed predictor of the monsoon rainfall. This relationship can also be used to make a qualitative forecast for rainfall over the whole of India by considering the sign of the tendency in extreme monsoon years.
Paolino, D. A.↗