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At least 397 records · Page 22

From Diagnosis to Action: An Automated Failure Advisor for Human Deep Space Missions

The major goal of current space system development at NASA is to enable human travel to deep space locations such as Mars and asteroids. At that distance, round trip communication with ground operators may take close to an hour, thus it becomes unfeasible to seek ground operator advice for problems that require immediate attention, either for crew safety or for activities that need to be performed at specific times for the attainment of scientific results. To achieve this goal, major reliance will need to be placed on automation systems capable of aiding the crew in detecting and diagnosing failures, assessing consequences of these failures, and providing guidance in repair activities that may be required. We report here on the most current step in the continuing development of such a system, and that is the addition of a Failure Response Advisor. In simple terms, we have a system in place the Advanced Caution and Warning System (ACAWS) to tell us what happened (failure diagnosis) and what happened because that happened (failure effects). The Failure Response Advisor will tell us what to do about it, how long until something must be done and why its important that something be done and will begin to approach the complex reasoning that is generally required for an optimal approach to automated system health management. This advice is based on the criticality and various timing elements, such as durations of activities and of component repairs, failure effects delay, and other factors. The failure advice is provided to operators (crew and mission controllers) together with the diagnostic and effects information. The operators also have the option to drill down for more information about the failure and the reasons for any suggested priorities.

spacecraft health maintenance↗

A Diagnosis-Prognosis Feedback Loop for Improved Performance Under Uncertainties

The feed-forward relationship between diagnosis and prognosis is the foundation of both aircraft structural health management and the digital twin concept. Measurements of structural response are obtained either in-situ with mounted sensor networks or offline using more traditional techniques (e.g., nondestructive evaluation). Diagnosis algorithms process this information to detect and quantify damage and then feed this data forward to a prognostic framework. A prognosis of the structure's future operational readiness (e.g., remaining useful life or residual strength) is then made and is used to inform mission- critical decision-making. Years of research have been devoted to improving the elements of this process, but the process itself has not changed significantly. Here, a new approach is proposed in which prognosis information is not only fed forward for decision-making, but it is also fed back to the forthcoming diagnosis. In this way, diagnosis algorithms can take advantage of a priori information about the expected state of health, rather than operating in an uninformed condition. As a feasibility test, a diagnosis-prognosis feedback loop of this manner is demonstrated. The approach is applied to a numerical example in which fatigue crack growth is simulated in a simple aluminum alloy test specimen. A prognosis was derived from a set of diagnoses which provided feedback to a subsequent set of diagnoses. Improvements in accuracy and a reduction in uncertainty in the prognosis- informed diagnoses were observed when compared with an uninformed diagnostic approach.

Leser, Patrick E.↗

Framework for a space shuttle main engine health monitoring system

A framework developed for a health management system (HMS) which is directed at improving the safety of operation of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) is summarized. An emphasis was placed on near term technology through requirements to use existing SSME instrumentation and to demonstrate the HMS during SSME ground tests within five years. The HMS framework was developed through an analysis of SSME failure modes, fault detection algorithms, sensor technologies, and hardware architectures. A key feature of the HMS framework design is that a clear path from the ground test system to a flight HMS was maintained. Fault detection techniques based on time series, nonlinear regression, and clustering algorithms were developed and demonstrated on data from SSME ground test failures. The fault detection algorithms exhibited 100 percent detection of faults, had an extremely low false alarm rate, and were robust to sensor loss. These algorithms were incorporated into a hierarchical decision making strategy for overall assessment of SSME health. A preliminary design for a hardware architecture capable of supporting real time operation of the HMS functions was developed. Utilizing modular, commercial off-the-shelf components produced a reliable low cost design with the flexibility to incorporate advances in algorithm and sensor technology as they become available.

Hawman, Michael W.↗

Technical Reference Suite Addressing Challenges of Providing Assurance for Fault Management Architectural Design

Research into complexities of software systems Fault Management (FM) and how architectural design decisions affect safety, preservation of assets, and maintenance of desired system functionality has coalesced into a technical reference (TR) suite that advances the provision of safety and mission assurance. The NASA Independent Verification and Validation (IVV) Program, with Software Assurance Research Program support, extracted FM architectures across the IVV portfolio to evaluate robustness, assess visibility for validation and test, and define software assurance methods applied to the architectures and designs. This investigation spanned IVV projects with seven different primary developers, a wide range of sizes and complexities, and encompassed Deep Space Robotic, Human Spaceflight, and Earth Orbiter mission FM architectures. The initiative continues with an expansion of the TR suite to include Launch Vehicles, adding the benefit of investigating differences intrinsic to model-based FM architectures and insight into complexities of FM within an Agile software development environment, in order to improve awareness of how nontraditional processes affect FM architectural design and system health management.

Fitz, Rhonda↗

Technical Reference Suite Addressing Challenges of Providing Assurance for Fault Management Architectural Design

Research into complexities of software systems Fault Management (FM) and how architectural design decisions affect safety, preservation of assets, and maintenance of desired system functionality has coalesced into a technical reference (TR) suite that advances the provision of safety and mission assurance. The NASA Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Program, with Software Assurance Research Program support, extracted FM architectures across the IV&V portfolio to evaluate robustness, assess visibility for validation and test, and define software assurance methods applied to the architectures and designs. This investigation spanned IV&V projects with seven different primary developers, a wide range of sizes and complexities, and encompassed Deep Space Robotic, Human Spaceflight, and Earth Orbiter mission FM architectures. The initiative continues with an expansion of the TR suite to include Launch Vehicles, adding the benefit of investigating differences intrinsic to model-based FM architectures and insight into complexities of FM within an Agile software development environment, in order to improve awareness of how nontraditional processes affect FM architectural design and system health management. The identification of particular FM architectures, visibility, and associated IV&V techniques provides a TR suite that enables greater assurance that critical software systems will adequately protect against faults and respond to adverse conditions. Additionally, the role FM has with regard to strengthened security requirements, with potential to advance overall asset protection of flight software systems, is being addressed with the development of an adverse conditions database encompassing flight software vulnerabilities. Capitalizing on the established framework, this TR suite provides assurance capability for a variety of FM architectures and varied development approaches. Research results are being disseminated across NASA, other agencies, and the software community. This paper discusses the findings and TR suite informing the FM domain in best practices for FM architectural design, visibility observations, and methods employed for IV&V and mission assurance.

Fitz, Rhonda↗

Effects of Aircraft Health on Airspace Safety

This manuscript investigates the effects of aircraft health on the surrounding airspace, and proposes a methodology to understand how different aircraft-level faults (system faults, communication faults, etc.) can adversely affect the safety of the airspace, and qualitatively assess the impact of such faults on airspace safety metrics (such as congestion, controller/pilot workload, etc.). The topic of systems health management deals with continuously monitoring the performance of an engineering system, identifying and detecting the presence of faults, predicting the growth/progression of faults, computing the remaining useful life, and aiding online decision-making for the robust, continued operation of such engineering systems. The topic of real-time airspace modeling and safety analysis deals with defining and computing safety metrics for airspace operations in order to support risk-informed decision-making activities for various airspace entities including pilots, air traffic controllers, airlines, etc. This report presents recent research efforts that focus on combining multiple aspects of the aforementioned topics, and investigates the impact of aircraft-level faults on the airspace safety

Aircraft Health↗

Thin-Film Embedded Sensors for Battery Health Monitoring

Hybrid or all-electric aircraft are being developed as the next generation of aircraft to both allow new forms of aviation and decrease environmental impact. Since these types of aircraft are based on high-capacity battery technology, safe operation of these batteries becomes increasingly important. In particular, the potential for battery failure due to uncontrolled chemical reactions resulting in thermal runaway, catastrophic failure, and battery fires must be addressed in order for such battery technology to have the level of safety needed for standard aviation implementation. Efforts to ensure battery safety often involve engineering solutions that seek to contain rather than prevent such events by early detection. Such approaches increase the system weight and decrease the power per unit mass provided by the battery system. Existing methods for measuring battery parameters to determine the battery state-of-health are limited. These methods include electrical measurements of the cell current and/or voltage output as well as temperature measurements taken externally on the cell surface. Such external temperature measurements are limited in their ability to provide early warning of impending battery failure. In response, an effort to develop sensors operating internal to battery for health monitoring has been ongoing in the NASA Sensor-based Prognostics to Avoid Runaway Reactions & Catastrophic Ignition (SPARRCI) project. The basic approach associated with this sensor work is the deposition of thin film sensors on the battery separator located between the anode and cathode of the battery. These thin film sensors are then monitored to determine changes in battery parameters and health. Microfabrication techniques are employed to minimize the overall impact of the sensors on battery operation through the implementation of sensors with minimal size, weight, and power consumption. The thickness of the films, which are fabricated through physical vapor deposition (sputtering), are on the order of thousands of angstroms and can have minimal surface area. Thin film sensors for system health management have been implemented for a many decades on complex components for aerospace applications. However, the application of thin films of this type on a battery separator for internal battery monitoring applications has not previously been demonstrated to our knowledge. This paper describes the development of sensors for the internal battery monitoring through the use of thin film sensor technology. Thin metal films were successfully deposited on a battery separator polymer material with good adherence and electrical continuity. Multiple types of sensors have been deposited, as well as lead connections from the sensor to the edge of the separator material. The ability of these thin film sensors immersed in electrolyte to perform multiple types of battery parameter measurements has been demonstrated. For example, a multiparameter sensor system measured multiple properties simultaneously inside of a pouch cell over a wide temperature range. Further, real time measurement of interior temperature changes in a battery pouch cell with an integrated interior temperature sensor was demonstrated. These changes include detecting a fault in the battery (shorting) in situ with rapid response time (less than a minute) corresponding to a more limited response by a temperature sensor mounted externally. Other aspects of monitoring battery health were also explored, such as real-time measurement of simulated dendrite growth/metal deposition by sensor on separator material demonstrated. Future efforts will include improvements in the durability of the sensor structure to allow introduction of the approach into standard battery fabrication techniques. Overall, this work is a step forward in providing a method to prevent catastrophic battery failures and provide a foundation for safer, lighter, and higher energy batteries for the electric aircraft industry.

thin film battery health↗

ISHM Anomaly Lexicon for Rocket Test

Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) is a comprehensive capability. An ISHM system must detect anomalies, identify causes of such anomalies, predict future anomalies, help identify consequences of anomalies for example, suggested mitigation steps. The system should also provide users with appropriate navigation tools to facilitate the flow of information into and out of the ISHM system. Central to the ability of the ISHM to detect anomalies is a clearly defined catalog of anomalies. Further, this lexicon of anomalies must be organized in ways that make it accessible to a suite of tools used to manage the data, information and knowledge (DIaK) associated with a system. In particular, it is critical to ensure that there is optimal mapping between target anomalies and the algorithms associated with their detection. During the early development of our ISHM architecture and approach, it became clear that a lexicon of anomalies would be important to the development of critical anomaly detection algorithms. In our work in the rocket engine test environment at John C. Stennis Space Center, we have access to a repository of discrepancy reports (DRs) that are generated in response to squawks identified during post-test data analysis. The DR is the tool used to document anomalies and the methods used to resolve the issue. These DRs have been generated for many different tests and for all test stands. The result is that they represent a comprehensive summary of the anomalies associated with rocket engine testing. Fig. 1 illustrates some of the data that can be extracted from a DR. Such information includes affected transducer channels, narrative description of the observed anomaly, and the steps used to correct the problem. The primary goal of the anomaly lexicon development efforts we have undertaken is to create a lexicon that could be used in support of an associated health assessment database system (HADS) co-development effort. There are a number of significant byproducts of the anomaly lexicon compilation effort. For example, (1) Allows determination of the frequency distribution of anomalies to help identify those with the potential for high return on investment if included in automated detection as part of an ISHM system, (2) Availability of a regular lexicon could provide the base anomaly name choices to help maintain consistency in the DR collection process, and (3) Although developed for the rocket engine test environment, most of the anomalies are not specific to rocket testing, and thus can be reused in other applications.

Schmalzel, John L.↗

Rotorcraft Diagnostics

Health management (HM) in any engineering systems requires adequate understanding about the system s functioning; a sufficient amount of monitored data; the capability to extract, analyze, and collate information; and the capability to combine understanding and information for HM-related estimation and decision-making. Rotorcraft systems are, in general, highly complex. Obtaining adequate understanding about functioning of such systems is quite difficult, because of the proprietary (restricted access) nature of their designs and dynamic models. Development of an EIM (exact inverse map) solution for rotorcraft requires a process that can overcome the abovementioned difficulties and maximally utilize monitored information for HM facilitation via employing advanced analytic techniques. The goal was to develop a versatile HM solution for rotorcraft for facilitation of the Condition Based Maintenance Plus (CBM+) capabilities. The effort was geared towards developing analytic and reasoning techniques, and proving the ability to embed the required capabilities on a rotorcraft platform, paving the way for implementing the solution on an aircraft-level system for consolidation and reporting. The solution for rotorcraft can he used offboard or embedded directly onto a rotorcraft system. The envisioned solution utilizes available monitored and archived data for real-time fault detection and identification, failure precursor identification, and offline fault detection and diagnostics, health condition forecasting, optimal guided troubleshooting, and maintenance decision support. A variant of the onboard version is a self-contained hardware and software (HW+SW) package that can be embedded on rotorcraft systems. The HM solution comprises components that gather/ingest data and information, perform information/feature extraction, analyze information in conjunction with the dependency/diagnostic model of the target system, facilitate optimal guided troubleshooting, and offer decision support for optimal maintenance.

Haste, Deepak↗

Facility Monitoring: A Qualitative Theory for Sensor Fusion

Data fusion and sensor management approaches have largely been implemented with centralized and hierarchical architectures. Numerical and statistical methods are the most common data fusion methods found in these systems. Given the proliferation and low cost of processing power, there is now an emphasis on designing distributed and decentralized systems. These systems use analytical/quantitative techniques or qualitative reasoning methods for date fusion.Based on other work by the author, a sensor may be treated as a highly autonomous (decentralized) unit. Each highly autonomous sensor (HAS) is capable of extracting qualitative behaviours from its data. For example, it detects spikes, disturbances, noise levels, off-limit excursions, step changes, drift, and other typical measured trends. In this context, this paper describes a distributed sensor fusion paradigm and theory where each sensor in the system is a HAS. Hence, given the reach qualitative information from each HAS, a paradigm and formal definitions are given so that sensors and processes can reason and make decisions at the qualitative level. This approach to sensor fusion makes it possible the implementation of intuitive (effective) methods to monitor, diagnose, and compensate processes/systems and their sensors. This paradigm facilitates a balanced distribution of intelligence (code and/or hardware) to the sensor level, the process/system level, and a higher controller level. The primary application of interest is in intelligent health management of rocket engine test stands.

Figueroa, Fernando↗

Preliminary Investigation of Impact of Technological Impairment on Trajectory-Based Operations

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) incorporates collaborative air traffic management and Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) in order to significantly increase the capacity, efficiency, and predictability of operations in the National Airspace System (NAS), without decreasing safety. This is enabled by airspace users and service providers sharing knowledge about operations that allows prediction of the complete 4D flight trajectory with as little uncertainty as possible. Additionally, new software and hardware technology is critical to reaching NextGen goals, especially with regard to TBO. What if the technologies that are critical for TBO were to be impaired or fail completely? Should there be a malfunction of a piece of the technology, it must be ensured that the whole system does not break down completely or suffer severe impairment. Instead, operations need to be maintained proportionally to the problem and safety needs to be ensured (graceful degradation). This paper proposes a systematic framework to investigate the vulnerability of TBO to technology disruption, and determine the impact of technological impairment on TBO. Two representative technologies are chosen for detailed investigation and the impact of their impairment on the degradation of TBO is illustrated using a weather-related scenario. XXXX There are several possible directions of future work. We believe it is desirable to develop methods to quantitatively assess the impact of technological disruption on TBO and to have the simulation tools to validate the impact. The availability of prognostics and health management methods could be leveraged to predict technological failure/disruption, thus predicting how TBO will be a ected, and possibly pro-actively mitigating the impact. It is important to develop large-scale scenarios where the e ect of technological impairment is prominent, and identify methods to quantitatively assess the extent of TBO degradation. An important goal of such an investigation is the development of failure-resistant resilient trajectory-based oper- ations. Resilience14, 15 is the property of a system to \bounce back" and resume at least a signi cant portion of its functionalities after degradation due to technological impairment(s). A systems resilience includes properties such as \bu ering capacity" (quantifying disruptions the system can absorb or adapt to without a fundamental breakdown in performance or in the systems structure), \ exibility" (ability to restructure itself in response to external changes or pressures), "margin" (how closely the system is currently operating rela- tive to one or another kind of performance boundary), \tolerance" (whether the system gracefully degrades as stress/pressure increase, or collapses quickly when pressure exceeds adaptive capacity), etc. Future work needs to focus on quantifying and improving the resilience of TBO, and identifying resilient design solutions for aviation.

TBO↗

How Successful Site Preparation Work at a Large, Commercial, Hazardous and Toxic Waste Site Can Benefit DOE Cleanup Projects - 18111

Jacobs recently completed site preparation work supporting the private commercial development of a world-scale petrochemical complex (an 'ethylene cracker' to produce the primary building block for many forms of plastic) in Monaca, Pennsylvania - the first major U.S. project of its kind outside the Gulf Coast region in 20 years and one of the largest (multi-billion dollar) construction projects in the eastern U.S. Prior to beginning construction on the petrochemical complex, the site's previous large, industrial zinc smelter operations had to be decommissioned and the facilities had to be removed. During the previous 80 years, the smelting operations at the site were used to produce zinc, lead, mercury, and sulfuric acid (a by-product of smelting). The smelting operations left landfills and industrial soil over a large area that had to be removed or closed under regulatory review to allow development across the 81,000 m{sup 2} (200-acre) industrial site located near a major river and local populations. In order to meet Pennsylvania's site-specific Land Recycling Program (commonly referred to as 'Act 2') legislative requirements, the direct contact pathway for landfill soil and slag was removed or mitigated. The site preparation work, or 'Early Works', started in January 2015. As the selected Early Works overall Engineering, Procurement, and Construction Management (EPCM) contractor, Jacobs performed the front end engineering and design. Subsequently, Jacobs had overall responsibility for procurement, construction management, health and safety, quality, security, and environmental services for the entire site and all contractors. The Early Works project included eight separate work scope packages: 1) Site Preparation, 2) Site Development, 3) Marine Works, 4) Rail Works, 5) Road Works and Offsite Utilities, 6) Site Security, 7) Construction Facilities, and 8) High Voltage Line Relocation. The Early Works scope was successfully completed in 2017. The challenges faced by this privately funded commercial project have much in common with large DOE and government construction projects. This paper explores lessons learned from the project and compares how project challenges were addressed on this private commercial project with those anticipated at large DOE/government construction and remediation sites, particularly those in the areas of Safety, Logistics, Infrastructure, and Stakeholder Involvement. The identification of best practices demonstrated on this successful project are shared for the purpose of bringing outside, commercial perspectives to ongoing or planned DOE/government construction projects. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Automatic Testcase Generation for Flight Software

The TacSat3 project is applying Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) technologies to an Air Force spacecraft for operational evaluation in space. The experiment will demonstrate the effectiveness and cost of ISHM and vehicle systems management (VSM) technologies through onboard operation for extended periods. We present two approaches to automatic testcase generation for ISHM: 1) A blackbox approach that views the system as a blackbox, and uses a grammar-based specification of the system's inputs to automatically generate *all* inputs that satisfy the specifications (up to prespecified limits); these inputs are then used to exercise the system. 2) A whitebox approach that performs analysis and testcase generation directly on a representation of the internal behaviour of the system under test. The enabling technologies for both these approaches are model checking and symbolic execution, as implemented in the Ames' Java PathFinder (JPF) tool suite. Model checking is an automated technique for software verification. Unlike simulation and testing which check only some of the system executions and therefore may miss errors, model checking exhaustively explores all possible executions. Symbolic execution evaluates programs with symbolic rather than concrete values and represents variable values as symbolic expressions. We are applying the blackbox approach to generating input scripts for the Spacecraft Command Language (SCL) from Interface and Control Systems. SCL is an embedded interpreter for controlling spacecraft systems. TacSat3 will be using SCL as the controller for its ISHM systems. We translated the SCL grammar into a program that outputs scripts conforming to the grammars. Running JPF on this program generates all legal input scripts up to a prespecified size. Script generation can also be targeted to specific parts of the grammar of interest to the developers. These scripts are then fed to the SCL Executive. ICS's in-house coverage tools will be run to measure code coverage. Because the scripts exercise all parts of the grammar, we expect them to provide high code coverage. This blackbox approach is suitable for systems for which we do not have access to the source code. We are applying whitebox test generation to the Spacecraft Health INference Engine (SHINE) that is part of the ISHM system. In TacSat3, SHINE will execute an on-board knowledge base for fault detection and diagnosis. SHINE converts its knowledge base into optimized C code which runs onboard TacSat3. SHINE can translate its rules into an intermediate representation (Java) suitable for analysis with JPF. JPF will analyze SHINE's Java output using symbolic execution, producing testcases that can provide either complete or directed coverage of the code. Automatically generated test suites can provide full code coverage and be quickly regenerated when code changes. Because our tools analyze executable code, they fully cover the delivered code, not just models of the code. This approach also provides a way to generate tests that exercise specific sections of code under specific preconditions. This capability gives us more focused testing of specific sections of code.

Bushnell, David Henry↗

Technology Maturity Towards Highly Reusable Space Transportation Goals

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Advanced Space Transportation Program (ASTP) has advanced key propulsion and launch vehicle systems technologies towards enabling the concepts identified by the Highly Reusable Space Transportation (HRST) Study as having significant potential for reducing the cost of access to space. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) manages the ASTP for the NASA Aero-Space Technology Enterprise. The HRST Study was conducted from 1995 through 1997 to evaluated launch concepts with the potential to reduce launch cost to $100 to $200 per pound of payload to low Earth orbit in the 2016 to 2022 timeframe. The HRST represents a generation of launch vehicles beyond the Lockheed-Martin VentureStar concept with a goal of another factor of ten reduction in launch cost below the next generation Reusable Launch Vehicle. Several concepts were developed and evaluated during the initial HRST studies. At the completion of the concept development phase in 1997, four task forces were formed to integrate the results of the study. These task forces were System Concept Definition, Operations Assessment. Cost Assessment and Technology Assessment. The Operations Assessment task force published its final report in November 1998. The Operations Assessment task force evaluated both single stage to orbit (SSTO) and two-stage to orbit (TSTO) concepts. SSTO concepts included horizontal takeoff and horizontal landing, vertical takeoff and vertical landing and vertical takeoff and horizontal landing. Horizontally launched concepts including launch assist options. SSTO concepts included airbreathing and all rocket as well as combination propulsion systems. The Operations Assessment considered the significance of performance margin, flight rate capability, reliability, launch assist, design optimization and technology development. These studies serve as a guide for the ASTP to prioritize technology development towards future highly reusable launch systems. Although the ASTP supports the development of technology that is focused at a near term fully reusable launch vehicle, the core of the technology development is looking ahead to future generations of launch vehicles that will enable dramatic growth in civil and commercial space enterprise. The primary focus of the paper is to status the key enabling technologies including rocket based combined cycle (RBCC) propulsion, magnetic launch assist, long life, low weight rocket propulsion, integral hot structures. robust thermal protection systems and integrated vehicle health management. The ASTP technology roadmap is leading rapidly towards system demonstration and eventual future X vehicle flight demonstrations.

Lyles, Garry↗

Physics-Based Methods of Failure Analysis and Diagnostics in Human Space Flight

The Integrated Health Management (IHM) for the future aerospace systems requires to interface models of multiple subsystems in an efficient and accurate information environment at the earlier stages of system design. The complexity of modern aeronautic and aircraft systems (including e.g. the power distribution, flight control, solid and liquid motors) dictates employment of hybrid models and high-level reasoners for analysing mixed continuous and discrete information flow involving multiple modes of operation in uncertain environments, unknown state variables, heterogeneous software and hardware components. To provide the information link between key design/performance parameters and high-level reasoners we rely on development of multi-physics performance models, distributed sensors networks, and fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) technologies in close collaboration with system designers. The main challenges of our research are related to the in-flight assessment of the structural stability, engine performance, and trajectory control. The main goal is to develop an intelligent IHM that not only enhances components and system reliability, but also provides a post-flight feedback helping to optimize design of the next generation of aerospace systems. Our efforts are concentrated on several directions of the research. One of the key components of our strategy is an innovative approach to the diagnostics/prognostics based on the real time dynamical inference (DI) technologies extended to encompass hybrid systems with hidden state trajectories. The major investments are into the multiphysics performance modelling that provides an access of the FD&P technologies to the main performance parameters of e.g. solid and liquid rocket motors and composite materials of the nozzle and case. Some of the recent results of our research are discussed in this chapter. We begin by introducing the problem of dynamical inference of stochastic nonlinear models and reviewing earlier results. Next, we present our analytical approach to the solution of this problem based on the path integral formulation. The resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model parameters, provides optimal compensation for the effects of dynamical noise, and is robust for a broad range of dynamical models. In the following Section the strengths of the algorithm are illustrated illustrated by inferring the parameters of the stochastic Lorenz system and comparing the results with those of earlier research. Next, we discuss a number of recent results in application to the development of the IHM for aerospace system. Firstly, we apply dynamical inference approach to a solution of classical three tank problems with mixed unknown continuous and binary parameters. The problem is considered in the context of ground support system for filling fuel tanks of liquid rocket motors. It is shown that the DI algorithm is well suited for successful solution of a hybrid version of this benchmark problem even in the presence of additional periodic and stochastic perturbation of unknown strength. Secondly, we illustrate our approach by its application to an analysis of the nozzle fault in a solid rocket motor (SRM). The internal ballistics of the SRM is modelled as a set of one-dimensional partial differential equations coupled to the dynamics of the propellant regression. In this example we are specifically focussed on the inference of discrete and continuous parameters of the nozzle blocking fault and on the possibility of an application of the DI algorithm to reducing the probability of "misses" of an on-board FD&P for SRM. In the next section re-contact problem caused by first stage/upper stage separation failure is discussed. The reaction forces imposed on the nozzle of the upper stage during the re-contact and their connection to the nozzle damage and to the thrust vector control (TVC) signal are obtained. It is shown that transient impact induced torquean be modelled as a response of an effective damped oscillator. A possible application of the DI algorithm to the inference of damage parameters and predicting fault dynamics ahead of time using the actuator signal is discussed. Finally, we formulate Bayesian inferential framework for development of the IHM system for in-flight structural health monitoring (SHM) of composite materials. We consider the signal generated by piezoelectric actuator mounted on composite structure generating elastic waves in it. The signal received by the sensor is than compared with the baseline signal. The possibility of damage inference is discussed in the context of development of the SHM.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.↗

Sensor selection and tool wear prediction with data‐driven models for precision machining

Abstract Estimation of tool wear in precision machining is vital in the traditional subtractive machining industry to reduce processing cost, improve manufacturing efficiency and product quality. In this vein, fusion of time and frequency‐domain features of commonly sensed signals can provide an early indication of tool wear and improve its prediction accuracy for prognostics and health management. This paper presents a data‐driven methodology and a complete tool chain for the inference of precision machining tool wear from fused machine measurements, such as cutting force, power, audio and vibration signals, and quantify the usefulness of each measurement. Indicators of tool wear are extracted from time‐domain signal statistics, frequency‐domain analysis, and time‐frequency domain analysis. Correlation coefficients between the extracted features (indicators) and the tool wear are used to select the most informative features. Principal Component Analysis and Partial Least‐Squares are used to reduce the dimensionality of the feature space. Regression models, including linear regression, support vector regression, Decision tree regression, neural network regression and Gaussian process regression, are used to predict the tool wear using data from a Haas milling machine performing spiral boss face milling. The performance of the regression models based on subsets of sensors validates the preliminary estimates about the saliency of the sensors. The experimental results show that the proposed methods can predict the machine tool wear precisely, with readily available sensor measurements. Neural network and Gaussian process regression were able to achieve good estimates of tool wear at different machine operating conditions. The most informative signal in predicting tool wear was shown to be the vibration signal. Time‐frequency domain features were the most informative features among the combination of features of three domains. In addition, using partial least squares components extracted from the original features of signals led to higher prediction accuracy.

Han, Seulki↗

Physics-based modeling and information-theoretic sensor and settings selection for tool wear detection in precision machining

Precision machining of metals is an energy intensive process with applications and impacts across the manufacturing industry. The energy efficiency, product yield, and maintenance of the precision machine require a digital twin that can assist with prognostics and health management. In this report a physics-based model is developed and validated against face milling data, and then used for the timely and precise inference of machining faults that cannot be measured directly. Computer numerical control (CNC) measurements of power and force are used through this physics-based machining model to predict deviations of the outputs of power consumption and cutting forces during normal operation. A model-based fault detection and isolation methodology is applied to determine the optimal (traditional and available) sensor suite and the test settings (admissible input values) that improve the inference of tool wear in face milling. The optimal sensor suite and input test settings are obtained by solving a mixed integer non-linear program that optimizes information-theoretic metrics relevant to the detection and isolation of tool wear from steady-state or transient machining measurements. Dynamic time warping and k—NN classification are then used to validate the robustness of the optimal design for fault detection test design, including the optimal sensor suite.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multivariable degradation modeling and life prediction using multivariate fractional Brownian motion

In system prognostics and health management, multivariable degradation models have been widely developed to predict the life of complex systems using degradation data of multiple Performance Characteristics (PCs). Recent studies have detected a Long-Term Memory (LTM) effect among the degradation process of various PCs, implying a strong coupling phenomenon between the future degradation behavior and historical degradation trajectory. Although the LTM has been widely integrated into single-PC-based degradation modeling, it has not been considered in multi-PC-based scenarios. To capture LTM among multiple PCs, this article proposes a novel LTM-integrated Multivariate Degradation Model (MDM) for system life prediction based on multivariate fractional Brownian motion, which simultaneously incorporates the cross-correlation among different PCs. To estimate parameters of the LTM-integrated MDM, a maximum likelihood method is developed. Here, two likelihood-ratio hypothesis tests are developed to test the existence of the overall and individual LTM effect among multiple PCs. Both simulation studies and physical experiments on the performance degradation of solar energy conversion and storage devices are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results reveal that the proposed LTM-integrated MDM significantly outperforms existing MDMs in life prediction, while the lifetime uncertainty is heavily underestimated by those traditional approaches that neglect the LTM.

42 ENGINEERING↗