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At least 397 records · Page 22

The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2): Observational Field Campaign

The science of wind energy forecasting has taken a leap forward with the unique meteorological observations gathered in complex terrain during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) funded program, with private-sector and university partners, which aims to improve the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts of wind speed in complex terrain for wind energy applications. A core component of WFIP2 was an 18-month field campaign which took place in the U.S. Pacific Northwest between October 2015 and March 2017. A large suite of instrumentation was deployed in a series of telescoping arrays, ranging from 500 km across to a densely instrumented 2 x 2 km area similar in size to a high-resolution NWP model grid cell. Observations from these instruments are being used to improve our understanding of the meteorological phenomena that affect wind energy production in complex terrain, and to evaluate and improve model physical parameterization schemes. We present several brief case studies using these observations to describe phenomena that are routinely difficult to forecast, including wintertime cold pools, diurnally driven gap flows, and mountain waves/wakes. Observing system and data product improvements developed during WFIP2 are also described.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

OCHRE

OCHRE™ uses a variety of input data sources to run time-series simulations. Building models can be taken from the ResStock™ database or generated using the Building Energy Optimization Tool (BEopt™) or other OpenStudio-HPXML workflows. EV charging profiles can be taken from datasets used in NLR's 2030 National Charging Network project. Weather data can be taken from the National Solar Radiation Database or EnergyPlus® weather files. There are no public datasets with OCHRE outputs at this time. However, a recent project dataset on water heater and EV demand flexibility can be requested. OCHRE is a Python-based energy modeling tool designed to model flexible loads in residential buildings. OCHRE includes detailed models and controls for flexible devices including HVAC equipment, water heaters, EVs, solar PV, and batteries. It is designed to run in co-simulation with custom controllers, aggregators, and grid models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A numerical analysis of shipboard and coastal zone color scanner time series of new production within Gulf Stream cyclonic eddies in the South Atlantic Bight

Eddy-induced upwelling occurs along the western edge of the Gulf Stream between Cape Canaveral, Florida, and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB). Coastal zone color scanner images of 1-km resolution spanning the period April 13-21, 1979, were processed to examine these eddy features in relation to concurrent shipboard and current/temperature measurements at moored arrays. A quasi-one-dimensional (z), time dependent biological model, using only nitrate as a nutrient source, has been combined with a three-dimensional physical model in an attempt to replicate the observed phytoplankton field at the northward edge of an eddy. The model is applicable only to the SAB south of the Charleston Bump, at approximately 31.5 deg N, since no feature analogous to the bump exists in the model bathymetry. The modeled chlorophyll, nitrate, and primary production fields of the euphotic zone are very similar to those obtained from the satellite and shipboard data at the leading edges of the observed eddies south of the Charleston Bump. The horizontal and vertical simulated fluxes of nitrate and chlorophyll show that only approximately 10% of the upwelled nitrate is utilized by the phytoplankton of the modeled grid box on the northern edge of the cyclone, while approximately 75% is lost horizontally, with the remainder still in the euphotic zone after the 10-day period of the model. Loss of chlorophyll due to sinking is very small in this strong upwelling region of the cyclone. The model is relatively insensitive to variations in the sinking parameterization and the external nitrate and chlorophyll fields but is very sensitive to a reduction of the maximum potential growth rate to half that measured. Given the success of this model in simulating the new production of the selcted upwelling region, other upwelling regions for which measurements or successful models of physical and biological quantities and rates exist could be modeled similarly.

Pribble, J. Raymond↗

Object-Oriented Controllable High-Resolution Residential Energy (OCHRE) (TM) Model

This presentation describes the OCHRE model as part of NREL's Powered By webinar series. OCHRE is a building energy modeling tool designed to model flexible loads in residential buildings. OCHRE includes detailed models and controls for flexible devices including HVAC equipment, water heaters, electric vehicles, solar PV, and batteries. It is designed to run in co-simulation with custom controllers, aggregators, and grid models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The energy distributions of B supergiants in the Large Magellanic Cloud

It is shown that line-blanketed, LTE, plane-parallel model atmosphere calculations provide excellent fits to the ultraviolet-through-visual energy distributions of B supergiants in the Large Magellanic Cloud. The models were computed using Kurucz's (1979) ATLAS atmosphere program, but with lower gravities than were contained in Kurucz's published model grid. The ultraviolet continua of low gravity stars are found to be sensitive to changes in temperature and gravity. Measurements of Teff and log g for ten LMC B supergiants from model atmosphere fits to the energy distributions yield estimates of their radii, luminosities, and masses. Model atmosphere fits suggest that the late B supergiants have significantly lower masses than the earlier B types of the same luminosity, contrary to stellar evolution theory which predicts that B supergiants are in a post-core hydrogen burning phase and should evolve very quickly and at essentially constant mass.

Fitzpatrick, Edward L.↗

Integrating Nuclear and Renewable Electricity in a Low-Carbon World: MIT-Japan Future of Nuclear Power Studies

Affordable reliable energy made possible a large middle class in the industrial world. Concerns about climate change require a transition to nuclear, wind, and solar—but these energy sources in current forms do not have the capability to meet the requirements for variable affordable energy. Researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of Tokyo, the Tokyo Institute of Technology and the Institute for Energy Economics are undertaking a series of studies to address how to make this transition to a low carbon world. Three areas are being investigated. The first area is the development of electricity grid models to understand the impacts of different choices of technologies and different limits on greenhouse gas emissions. The second area is the development of technologies to enable variable electricity to the grid while capital-intensive nuclear, wind and solar generating plants operate at full capacity to minimize costs. Technologies to enable meeting variable electricity demand while operating plants at high-capacity factors include use of heat and hydrogen storage. The third area is the development of electricity market rules to enable transition to a low-carbon grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Super Tuesday Outbreak: Forecast Sensitivities to Single-Moment Microphysics Schemes

Forecast precipitation and radar characteristics are used by operational centers to guide the issuance of advisory products. As operational numerical weather prediction is performed at increasingly finer spatial resolution, convective precipitation traditionally represented by sub-grid scale parameterization schemes is now being determined explicitly through single- or multi-moment bulk water microphysics routines. Gains in forecasting skill are expected through improved simulation of clouds and their microphysical processes. High resolution model grids and advanced parameterizations are now available through steady increases in computer resources. As with any parameterization, their reliability must be measured through performance metrics, with errors noted and targeted for improvement. Furthermore, the use of these schemes within an operational framework requires an understanding of limitations and an estimate of biases so that forecasters and model development teams can be aware of potential errors. The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Spring Experiments have produced daily, high resolution forecasts used to evaluate forecast skill among an ensemble with varied physical parameterizations and data assimilation techniques. In this research, high resolution forecasts of the 5-6 February 2008 Super Tuesday Outbreak are replicated using the NSSL configuration in order to evaluate two components of simulated convection on a large domain: sensitivities of quantitative precipitation forecasts to assumptions within a single-moment bulk water microphysics scheme, and to determine if these schemes accurately depict the reflectivity characteristics of well-simulated, organized, cold frontal convection. As radar returns are sensitive to the amount of hydrometeor mass and the distribution of mass among variably sized targets, radar comparisons may guide potential improvements to a single-moment scheme. In addition, object-based verification metrics are evaluated for their utility in gauging model performance and QPF variability.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

DeepONet-grid-UQ: A trustworthy deep operator framework for predicting the power grid’s post-fault trajectories

This paper proposes a novel data-driven method for the reliable prediction of the power grid’s post-fault trajectories, i.e., the power grid’s dynamic response after a disturbance or fault. Here, the proposed method is based on the recently proposed concept of Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets). Unlike traditional neural networks that learn to approximate functions, DeepONets are designed to approximate nonlinear operators, i.e., mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces. Under this operator framework, we design a novel and efficient DeepONet that (i) takes as inputs the trajectories collected before and during the fault and (ii) outputs the predicted post-fault trajectories. In addition, we endow our method with the much-needed ability to balance efficiency with reliable/trustworthy predictions via uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose and compare two novel methods that enable quantifying the predictive uncertainty. First, we propose a Bayesian DeepONet (B-DeepONet) that uses stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo to sample from the posterior distribution of the DeepONet trainable parameters. Then, we design a Probabilistic DeepONet (Prob-DeepONet) that uses a probabilistic training strategy to enable quantifying uncertainty at virtually no extra computational cost. Finally, we validate the proposed methods’ predictive power and uncertainty quantification capability using the New York-New England power grid model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Three-dimensional compressible jet-in-crossflow calculations using improved viscosity models and adapted grid

Previous calculations of jet-in-crossflow problems have been sensitive to the turbulence and artificial viscosity models and to the grid. Consequently, the eddy viscosity model in the PARC3D code was modified to consider the turbulent jet by switching from the Baldwin-Lomax (1978) model to an axisymmetric jet model. A modified artificial viscosity model has been utilized and evaluated in this study as well. The new model includes cell size scaling and a directional dependence in the coefficients. Computational results from PARC3D demonstrate the effects of the viscosity models on the pressure distribution fore and aft of the jet and the ability of the adaptive grid scheme to adjust to the three-dimensional gradients around the jet.

Lytle, John K.↗

Virtual Synchronous Machine Grid-Forming Inverter Model Specification (REGFM_B1)

This report describes a generic virtual synchronous machine (VSM) grid-forming inverter (GFM) model - REGFM_B1. The initial model specification was proposed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), General Electric (GE), and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy (SGRE) also provided inputs to the specification. The model specification has been revised multiple times based on the discussions between all the contributors listed in this report. This work was funded by the Universal Interoperability for Grid-Forming Inverters (UNIFI) Consortium. This generic model is developed to help the utility industry understand the concept of VSM GFMs. The model could be used to represent equipment for long-term planning studies where vendor-specific models are not available. As equipment mature and improve, generic models will be updated to capture the new functionalities of GFMs. It is not intended that these models will always remain representative of all future GFM technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Total Water Level Prediction at Continental Scale: Coastal Ocean

We demonstrate recent progress made in the simulation of total water level (TWL) at continental scale, using the coastal ocean of US East Coast/Gulf of Mexico coast as an example. A key difference between the continental-scale and small-scale modeling is that the former requires a more accurate vertical datum. Using a geoid-based datum (xGEOID20b), a satellite altimetry product, and a state-of-the-art 3D unstructured-grid model, we significantly improve the accuracy for TWL both near- and off-shore. The average root-mean-square error at all NOAA stations is 14 cm. The non-tidal signals are found to be sensitive to the representation of a large-scale current system near the boundary and extending the domain extent to accommodate this system improves these signals.

Cui, Linlin↗

Implementations and Evaluations of Wind Turbine Inertial Controls With FAST and Digital Real-Time Simulations

This paper presents a novel simulation approach to evaluate new ancillary service controls in the context of large-scale wind power integration. We adopt and compare different types of turbine inertial control methods with the proposed modifications to cope with realistic wind conditions in the field. The simulation procedure is started with the software-based simulation, in which we employ the high-fidelity wind turbine simulator FAST that models a real three-bladed controls advanced research turbine (CART3). The advantages of using FAST are that it can provide convincing simulation results and address the interactions between turbine electrical and mechanical systems. The developed controller model is then rapidly prototyped for the real-time simulation with the hardware-in-the-loop scheme. CART3 will respond to a virtual frequency event triggered in the emulated electric grid modeled in a digital real-time simulator. The introduced simulation platform streamlines the procedure of designing turbine auxiliary controls, and these simulations results give insights on the turbine controls and their impacts on the interconnected power system, as well as the effects on turbine mechanical components. For example, the results indicate that the inertial controls tend to reduce the out-of-plane mechanical loadings in region 2, while such loadings are dominated by the pitch actions in region 3.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Downscaling atmospheric chemistry simulations with physically consistent deep learning

Abstract. Recent advances in deep convolutional neural network (CNN)-based super resolution can be used to downscale atmospheric chemistry simulations with substantially higher accuracy than conventional downscaling methods. This work both demonstrates the downscaling capabilities of modern CNN-based single image super resolution and video super-resolution schemes and develops modifications to these schemes to ensure they are appropriate for use with physical science data. The CNN-based video super-resolution schemes in particular incur only 39 % to 54 % of the grid-cell-level error of interpolation schemes and generate outputs with extremely realistic small-scale variability based on multiple perceptual quality metrics while performing a large (8×10) increase in resolution in the spatial dimensions. Methods are introduced to strictly enforce physical conservation laws within CNNs, perform large and asymmetric resolution changes between common model grid resolutions, account for non-uniform grid-cell areas, super-resolve lognormally distributed datasets, and leverage additional inputs such as high-resolution climatologies and model state variables. High-resolution chemistry simulations are critical for modeling regional air quality and for understanding future climate, and CNN-based downscaling has the potential to generate these high-resolution simulations and ensembles at a fraction of the computational cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An ML-based terrestrial data fusion and augmentation framework to enable advanced understanding of the terrestrial carbon and water interactions

Soil moisture is essential to the terrestrial carbon and water cycles and land–atmosphere interactions. There are various types of soil moisture data, and each type has the distinct spatiotemporal strengths and limitations, depending on the diverse applications and retrieval methodologies of different data types (Li et al., in review; The PNNL-82151 FY23 Report). However, the limitations of different soil moisture data in terms of accuracy and spatiotemporal coverage hinder our ability to further understand the soil moisture dynamics across scales. To have a gap free soil moisture data product with a fine spatiotemporal coverage and vertical profiles, we train extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models by using (1) in-situ soil moisture measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN), (2) soil moisture from the ECMWF reanalysis (ERA) at the 9 km and sub-daily spatiotemporal resolution, (3) the Daymet meteorological fields, and (4) data products that characterize surface conditions, including soil texture, organic content, topography, vegetation type, and rooting depth. We use the trained XGBoost models that have consistent performance across seven soil layers, i.e., 0–5 cm, 5–10 cm, 10–20 cm, 20–40 cm, 40–60 cm, 60–100 cm, and 100–200 cm, and the gridded model predictors to generate a soil moisture data at the 1 km and daily spatiotemporal resolution for the Continental United States (CONUS) from 2001–2020. This dataset can be broadly used for Earth system model benchmark, monitoring extreme weathers, making informed decisions regarding agriculture, water resource management, climate change mitigation, and ecosystem preservation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Large-Scale Inverter Integration in Bulk Power Grids Using Heterogeneous Grid-Forming Control Strategies

The conventional generation within the grid is gradually being replaced by inverter based resources. However, the integration of inverters into realistic transmission grid models has not been thoroughly explored. To address this gap, this work develops an automation framework aimed at facilitating the integration of a large number of inverter-based resources into a large-scale grid. Two types of grid-forming controlled inverters—namely droop-controlled inverters and virtual synchronous machine-controlled inverters—are developed for use in positive-sequence simulation packages. Various penetration levels ranging from 23% to 100% of grid-forming inverters are tested in a grid setup in the US Western Interconnection. The dynamic performance of inverters under different control schemes is compared in response to various disturbances.

Lyu, Xue [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗

Computational fluid dynamics for propulsion technology: Geometric grid visualization in CFD-based propulsion technology research

The coordination is examined of necessary resources, facilities, and special personnel to provide technical integration activities in the area of computational fluid dynamics applied to propulsion technology. Involved is the coordination of CFD activities between government, industry, and universities. Current geometry modeling, grid generation, and graphical methods are established to use in the analysis of CFD design methodologies.

Ziebarth, John P.↗

Development and Evaluation of a Cloud-Gap-Filled MODIS Daily Snow-Cover Product

The utility of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover products is limited by cloud cover which causes gaps in the daily snow-cover map products. We describe a cloud-gap-filled (CGF) daily snowcover map using a simple algorithm to track cloud persistence, to account for the uncertainty created by the age of the snow observation. Developed from the 0.050 resolution climate-modeling grid daily snow-cover product, MOD10C1, each grid cell of the CGF map provides a cloud-persistence count (CPC) that tells whether the current or a prior day was used to make the snow decision. Percentage of grid cells "observable" is shown to increase dramatically when prior days are considered. The effectiveness of the CGF product is evaluated by conducting a suite of data assimilation experiments using the community Noah land surface model in the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The Noah model forecasts of snow conditions, such as snow-water equivalent (SWE), are updated based on the observations of snow cover which are obtained either from the MOD1 OC1 standard product or the new CGF product. The assimilation integrations using the CGF maps provide domain averaged bias improvement of -11 %, whereas such improvement using the standard MOD1 OC1 maps is -3%. These improvements suggest that the Noah model underestimates SWE and snow depth fields, and that the assimilation integrations contribute to correcting this systematic error. We conclude that the gap-filling strategy is an effective approach for increasing cloud-free observations of snow cover.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Integrated Modeling of Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation and Land Processes at Satellite-Resolved Scales

In this talk, I will present recent results from a project led at NASA/GSFC, in collaboration with NASA/MSFC and JHU, focused on the development and application of an observation-driven integrated modeling system that represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation and land processes at satellite-resolved scales. The project, known as the NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF), is funded by NASA's Modeling and Analysis Program, and leverages prior investments from the Air Force Weather Agency and NASA's Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO). We define "satellite-resolved" scales as being within a typical mesoscale atmospheric modeling grid (roughly 1-25 km), although this work is designed to bridge the continuum between local (microscale), regional (mesoscale) and global (synoptic) processes. NU-WRF is a superset of the standard NCAR Advanced Research WRF model, achieved by fully integrating the GSFC Land Information System (LIS, already coupled to WRF), the WRF/Chem enabled version of the Goddard Chemistry Aerosols Radiation Transport (GOCART) model, the Goddard Satellite Data Simulation Unit (SDSU), and boundary/initial condition preprocessors for MERRA and GEOS-5 into a single software release (with source code available by agreement with NASA/GSFC). I will show examples where the full coupling between aerosol, cloud, precipitation and land processes is critical for predicting local, regional, and global water and energy cycles, including some high-impact phenomena such as floods, hurricanes, mesoscale convective systems, droughts, and monsoons.

Peters-Lidard, Christa↗