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DOE OSTI2024

Cosmic Algorithms: Unveiling Mysteries of the Universe with Artificial Intelligence

In the boundless expanse of the cosmos lies a tapestry of mysteries waiting to be unraveled. In this talk, we delve into the realm of "Cosmic Algorithms," where the marriage of cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) and astrophysical inquiry paves the way for unprecedented discoveries. One of the foremost challenges we face in contemporary astrophysics is the staggering size and complexity of astronomical datasets. I will discuss how AI provides a transformative solution to these challenges, enabling us to efficiently sift through vast amounts of data to extract meaningful insights. Moreover, I will explore the fascinating realm of gravitationally lensed galaxies and merging galaxies, showcasing how AI algorithms play a pivotal role in identifying, characterizing, and understanding these phenomena. Today we stand at the threshold of unprecedented discovery, inspired by the boundless potential of Cosmic Algorithms to illuminate the darkest corners of space. The remarkable synergy between AI and astrophysics will continue to push the boundaries of human knowledge and open new roads to discovery.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mapping Dark Matter on Small Scales with the Cosmic Microwave Background (Final Report)

Sehgal was funded by DOE Grant DE-SC0020441 over the period from 11/1/2019 - 04/30/2024 (no remaining funds are anticipated). Most recently, Sehgal and her group completed a publication forecasting cosmological parameter constraints for a CMB-HD survey, in addition to SO and CMB-S4 (1). One focus of this work was determining the improvement in parameter constraints when removing the gravitational lensing effect from the primordial CMB (a process called delensing). This work also explored the bias to parameters from neglecting baryonic effects, and ways to mitigate that. In addition, this work highlighted that a CMB-HD N eff measurement could tightly constrain the QCD axion in a modelindependent way (see left panel of Figure 1). Sehgal also developed a novel way to probe inflation via CMB experiments by measuring inflationary magnetic fields (IMFs) (2). IMFs are thought to seed the large magnetic fields we observe in galaxies today, and can be measured by looking for anisotropic rotation of the CMB polarization vectors across the sky (an effect called cosmic birefringence). The cosmic birefringence from IMFs has a unique frequency dependence, allowing it to be separated from other sources of cosmic birefringence. In (2), Sehgal and her postdoc also presented a novel way to remove foreground contamination from Galactic magnetic fields using measurements of the polarization of nearby radio sources. The removal of this Galactic contamination is necessary when measuring IMFs at the level of 0.1 nG; IMFs with a strength of at least 0.1 nG are needed to seed the magnetic fields in galaxies we observe today. Since only inflation can generate such a strong magnetic field, measuring such a signal would be a “smoking gun” signature that inflation occurred. Sehgal showed in (2) that CMB-HD could detect such IMFs with at least 3σ significance (see right panel of Figure 1).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Addressing Experimental Challenges in Probing Dark Energy with Accuracy and Precision with the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space & Time (LSST)

With support from this award, the Stanford group under the leadership of PI Patricia Burchat focused on pixel-level algorithms that are key to the investigation of dark energy with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). The work was carried out through strong engagement in the DOE-supported LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), for which the PI served as Deputy Spokesperson (07/2019 - 07/2021) and Technical Coordinator (07/2021 - 07/2023). Members of the Burchat group are Full DESC members and are among scientists who have been accepted to join the Rubin Observatory System Integration, Test, and Commissioning (SIT-Com) effort. The specific intellectual focus of the group was the optimization of gravitational lensing as a probe of the evolution of the distribution of dark matter in space and time to learn about the nature of dark energy. The Stanford group pursued an integrated research program to understand in detail, and then remediate or calibrate, systematic effects that could limit the sensitivity of the LSST to cosmic shear as a dark energy probe -- particularly those related to our understanding of the atmospheric point spread function (PSF), challenges associated with blended galaxy images, and impacts of residual camera artifacts. Key to this work was developing, enhancing, and validating the fidelity of simulations that play a key role in the development of our understanding of subtle systematic biases and then using these simulations to develop techniques to characterize and mitigate biases, and associated algorithms for implementation in the LSST or DESC science pipelines. The group’s work included contributions to the open-source GalSim simulation package, which is widely used in the community; simulations and studies of spatial correlations of atmospheric PSFs; studies of temporal correlations of the atmospheric PSF; impacts of chromatic PSFs on cosmic shear calibration; continued studies of anisotropic Gaussian process interpolation of PSF models across the focal plane; and measuring and mitigating impacts of residual camera artifacts on cosmic shear. A primary impact of this work is that it increases the scientific discovery potential of the DOE and NSF investments in the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space \& Time, by addressing challenges in interpreting astronomical images through more accurate descriptions of the blurring of images due to the atmosphere. Specifically, this work impacts our ability to understand the fundamental nature of dark energy.

Burchat, Patricia Rose↗
DOE OSTI2024

Discovering Dark Matter Clumps and Primordial Particles with Galaxies

Cosmological observations and galaxy dynamics seem to imply that five out of six parts in mass of all matter in the universe is composed of dark matter, which is not accounted for by the Standard Model of particles. The cold dark matter (CDM) paradigm has been extremely successful at describing observations on large-cosmological scale. However, many different dark matter candidates have the same observable effects as CDM on large-length scales. One possible avenue to distinguish between these different models is to look on much smaller-length scales, where usually dark matter models become distinguishable. This research developed the theoretical framework and statistical tools needed to map the detailed distribution of dark matter on subgalactic scales using strong gravitational lensing. A second goal of this research was to build new statistical techniques that efficiently exploit the full power of cosmic-structure data from next-generation surveys. Galaxy clustering on large scales provides significant cosmological information through the power spectrum. Additional information can be gained from higher-order statistics. This research provided new ways to understand the initial conditions of the universe from current and upcoming cosmological surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Cosmology: Can NPE reliably replace MCMC?

Hierarchical neural posterior estimation has its place Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling (HBM) combined with MCMC algorithms has been shown to provide more robust and accurate inference for real-world phenomena in which nature takes a nested form. However, MCMC-based inference can be computationally expensive, and its performance often suffers for complex posterior geometries. These costs are especially pertinent for HBM. Studies have recently demonstrated the potential for a flexible, expressive, and amortized hierarchical neural posterior estimator (HNPE) built on Normalizing Flows. These studies have mostly been performed on simple datasets, or they focus on a single parameter from each level of the hierarchy. A systematic study analyzing how both hierarchical methods compare for more complex and realistic datasets is necessary before applying HNPE for scientific measurements. Here, we re-explore the theory behind HNPE and conduct comparative numerical experiments of HNPE and MCMC-based HBM methods on real and synthetic data, including strong gravitational lensing simulations. In particular, we use a suite of diagnostics to show trade-offs in terms of accuracy, precision, time to train or sample, reproducibility, and the need for expert domain knowledge. Especially for higher dimensional and complex posteriors, HNPE is expected to drastically improve on time for inference, accuracy, and precision with an upfront training time cost.

Hur, Rachel [Chicago U.] (ORCID:000900089890445X)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generation of realistic input parameters for simulating atmospheric point-spread functions at astronomical observatories

High-fidelity simulated astronomical images are an important tool in developing and measuring the performance of image-processing algorithms, particularly for high precision measurements of cosmic shear – correlated distortions of images of distant galaxies due to weak gravitational lensing caused by the large-scale mass distribution in the Universe. For unbiased measurements of cosmic shear, all other sources of correlated image distortions must be modeled or removed. One such source is the correlated blurring of images due to optical turbulence in the atmosphere, which dominates the point-spread function (PSF) for ground-based instruments. In this work, we leverage data from weather forecasting models to produce wind speeds and directions, and turbulence parameters, that are realistically correlated with altitude. To study the resulting correlations in the size and shape of the PSF, we generate simulated images of the PSF across a ~10 square-degree field of view – the size of the camera focal plane for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile – using weather data and historical seeing for a geographic location near the Observatory. We make quantitative predictions for two-point correlation functions (2PCF) that are used in analyses of cosmic shear. We observe a strong anisotropy in the two-dimensional 2PCF, which is expected based on observations in real images, and study the dependence of the orientation of the anisotropy on dominant wind directions near the ground and at higher altitudes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probing Anisotropic Cosmic Birefringence with Foreground-Marginalised SPT B-mode Likelihoods

In this work, we construct foreground-marginalised versions of the SPT-3G D1 and SPTpol cosmic microwave background (CMB) B-mode polarisation likelihoods. The compression is performed using the CMB-lite framework and we use the resulting data sets to constrain anisotropic cosmic birefringence, parametrised by the amplitude of a scale-invariant anisotropic birefringence spectrum, A CB . Using the new SPT-3G data we report a upper limit on of 95% upper limit on A CB of 1.2 x 10 -4 , which tightens to 0.53 x 10 -4 when imposing a prior on the amplitude of gravitational lensing based on CMB lensing reconstruction analyses. These are the tightest constraints on anisotropic birefringence from BB power spectrum measurements to-date, demonstrating the constraining power of the South Pole Telescope. The likelihoods used in this work are made publicly available at https://github.com/lbalkenhol/candl_data

Balkenhol, Lennart [Sorbonne Université, Paris (Fr↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Polarized Image of a Synchrotron-emitting Ring of Gas Orbiting a Black Hole

Synchrotron radiation from hot gas near a black hole results in a polarized image. The image polarization is determined by effects including the orientation of the magnetic field in the emitting region, relativistic motion of the gas, strong gravitational lensing by the black hole, and parallel transport in the curved spacetime. We explore these effects using a simple model of an axisymmetric, equatorial accretion disk around a Schwarzschild black hole. By using an approximate expression for the null geodesics derived by Beloborodov and conservation of the Walker–Penrose constant, we provide analytic estimates for the image polarization. We test this model using currently favored general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of M87*, using ring parameters given by the simulations. For a subset of these with modest Faraday effects, we show that the ring model broadly reproduces the polarimetric image morphology. Our model also predicts the polarization evolution for compact flaring regions, such as those observed from Sgr A* with GRAVITY. With suitably chosen parameters, our simple model can reproduce the EVPA pattern and relative polarized intensity in Event Horizon Telescope images of M87*. Under the physically motivated assumption that the magnetic field trails the fluid velocity, this comparison is consistent with the clockwise rotation inferred from total intensity images.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

How to Obtain the Redshift Distribution from Probabilistic Redshift Estimates

Abstract A reliable estimate of the redshift distribution n ( z ) is crucial for using weak gravitational lensing and large-scale structures of galaxy catalogs to study cosmology. Spectroscopic redshifts for the dim and numerous galaxies of next-generation weak-lensing surveys are expected to be unavailable, making photometric redshift (photo- z ) probability density functions (PDFs) the next best alternative for comprehensively encapsulating the nontrivial systematics affecting photo- z point estimation. The established stacked estimator of n ( z ) avoids reducing photo- z PDFs to point estimates but yields a systematically biased estimate of n ( z ) that worsens with a decreasing signal-to-noise ratio, the very regime where photo- z PDFs are most necessary. We introduce Cosmological Hierarchical Inference with Probabilistic Photometric Redshifts ( CHIPPR ), a statistically rigorous probabilistic graphical model of redshift-dependent photometry that correctly propagates the redshift uncertainty information beyond the best-fit estimator of n ( z ) produced by traditional procedures and is provably the only self-consistent way to recover n ( z ) from photo- z PDFs. We present the chippr prototype code, noting that the mathematically justifiable approach incurs computational cost. The CHIPPR approach is applicable to any one-point statistic of any random variable, provided the prior probability density used to produce the posteriors is explicitly known; if the prior is implicit, as may be the case for popular photo- z techniques, then the resulting posterior PDFs cannot be used for scientific inference. We therefore recommend that the photo- z community focus on developing methodologies that enable the recovery of photo- z likelihoods with support over all redshifts, either directly or via a known prior probability density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Variability of the Black Hole Image in M87 at the Dynamical Timescale

The black hole images obtained with the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) are expected to be variable at the dynamical timescale near their horizons. For the black hole at the center of the M87 galaxy, this timescale (5–61 days) is comparable to the 6 day extent of the 2017 EHT observations. Closure phases along baseline triangles are robust interferometric observables that are sensitive to the expected structural changes of the images but are free of station-based atmospheric and instrumental errors. We explored the day-to-day variability in closure-phase measurements on all six linearly independent nontrivial baseline triangles that can be formed from the 2017 observations. We showed that three triangles exhibit very low day-to-day variability, with a dispersion of ∼3°–5°. The only triangles that exhibit substantially higher variability (∼90°–180°) are the ones with baselines that cross the visibility amplitude minima on the u–v plane, as expected from theoretical modeling. We used two sets of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations to explore the dependence of the predicted variability on various black hole and accretion-flow parameters. We found that changing the magnetic field configuration, electron temperature model, or black hole spin has a marginal effect on the model consistency with the observed level of variability. On the other hand, the most discriminating image characteristic of models is the fractional width of the bright ring of emission. Models that best reproduce the observed small level of variability are characterized by thin ring-like images with structures dominated by gravitational lensing effects and thus least affected by turbulence in the accreting plasmas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Testing the ΛCDM Cosmological Model with Forthcoming Measurements of the Cosmic Microwave Background with SPT-3G

We forecast constraints on cosmological parameters enabled by three surveys conducted with SPT-3G, the third-generation camera on the South Pole Telescope. The surveys cover separate regions of 1500, 2650, and 6000 deg$^{2}$ to different depths, in total observing 25% of the sky. These regions will be measured to white noise levels of roughly 2.5, 9, and 12μK-armin, respectively, in cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature units at 150 GHz by the end of 2024. The survey also includes measurements at 95 and 220 GHz, which have noise levels a factor of ∼1.2 and 3.5 times higher than 150 GHz, respectively, with each band having a polarization noise level ∼2times higher than the temperature noise. We use a novel approach to obtain the covariance matrices for jointly and optimally estimated gravitational lensing potential band powers and unlensed CMB temperature and polarization band powers. We demonstrate the ability to test the ΛCDM model via the consistency of cosmological parameters constrained independently from SPT-3G and Planck data, and consider the improvement in constraints on ΛCDM extension parameters from a joint analysis of SPT-3G and Planck data. The ΛCDM cosmological parameters are typically constrained with uncertainties up to ∼2 times smaller with SPT-3G data, compared to Planck, with the two data sets measuring significantly different angular scales and polarization levels, providing additional tests of the standard cosmological model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strong Lens Discoveries in DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys DR10 with Two Deep Learning Architectures

Abstract We have conducted a search for strong gravitational lensing systems in the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Imaging Surveys Data Release 10 (DR10). This paper is the fourth in a series of searches. This is the first catalog of lens candidates covering nearly the entirety of the extragalactic sky south of declination δ ≈ +32 ∘ , all observed by DECam, covering ∼14,000 deg 2 . We impose a z -band magnitude cut of <20 in AB magnitude. We deploy a residual neural network and EfficientNet as an ensemble trained on a compilation of known lensing systems and high-grade candidates as well as nonlenses in the same footprint. The predictions from these two base models are aggregated using a meta-learner. After applying our ensemble to the survey data, we exclude known candidates and systems, and use our own visual inspection portal to rank images in the top 0.01 percentile of all neural network recommendations. We have found 811 lens candidates, five of which are confirmed through Euclid Quick Data Release (Q1). These include 484 new candidates in the Legacy Surveys DR9 footprint, all parts of which have been searched for strong lenses at least once before, either by our group or others. Combining the discoveries from this work with those from the first three papers in this series (335, 1210, and 1512), we have discovered a total of 3868 new candidates in the DESI Legacy Surveys.

Inchausti, Jose Carlos [University of San Francisc↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Cohesive Deep Drilling Field Strategy for LSST Cosmology

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will image billions of astronomical objects in the wide–fast–deep primary survey and in a set of minisurveys including intensive observations of a group of deep drilling fields (DDFs). The DDFs are a critical piece of three key aspects of the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) cosmological measurements: they provide a required calibration for photometric redshifts (photo- z ) and weak gravitational lensing (WL) measurements and they directly contribute to cosmological constraints from the most distant Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). We present a set of cohesive DDF strategies fulfilling science requirements relevant to DESC and following the guidelines of the Survey Cadence Optimization Committee. We propose a method to estimate the observing strategy parameters and we perform simulations of the corresponding surveys. We define a set of metrics for each science case to assess the performance of the proposed observing strategies. We show that the most promising results are achieved with deep rolling surveys characterized by two sets of fields: ultradeep fields ( z ≲ 1.1) observed at a high cadence with a large number of visits over a limited number of seasons, and deep fields ( z ≲ 0.7), observed with a cadence of ~3 nights for 10 yr. These encouraging results should be confirmed with realistic simulations using the LSST scheduler. A DDF budget of ~8.5% is required to design observing strategies satisfying all the cosmological requirements. A lower DDF budget leads to surveys that either do not fulfill the photo- z /WL requirements or are not optimal for SN Ia cosmology.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measuring Black Hole Light Echoes with Very Long Baseline Interferometry

Light passing near a black hole can follow multiple paths from an emission source to an observer due to strong gravitational lensing. Photons following different paths take different amounts of time to reach the observer, which produces an echo signature in the image. The characteristic echo delay is determined primarily by the mass of the black hole, but it is also influenced by the black hole spin and inclination to the observer. In the Kerr geometry, echo images are demagnified, rotated, and sheared copies of the direct image and lie within a restricted region of the image. Echo images have exponentially suppressed flux, and temporal correlations within the flow make it challenging to directly detect light echoes from the total light curve. In this Letter, we propose a novel method to search for light echoes by correlating the total light curve with the interferometric signal at high spatial frequencies, which is a proxy for indirect emission. We explore the viability of our method using numerical general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of a near-face-on accretion system scaled to M87-like parameters. We demonstrate that our method can be used to directly infer the echo delay period in simulated data. An echo detection would be clear evidence that we have captured photons that have circled the black hole, and a high-fidelity echo measurement would provide an independent measure of fundamental black hole parameters. Our results suggest that detecting echoes may be achievable through interferometric observations with a modest space-based very long baseline interferometry mission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Unified Model of Cosmic-Ray Propagation and Radio Extreme Scattering Events from Intermittent Interstellar Structures

Intermittent magnetic structures are a plausible candidate for explaining cosmic-ray (CR) diffusion rates derived from observed CR energy spectra. Independently, studies of extreme scattering events (ESEs) of radio quasars and pulsar scintillation have hinted that very straight, large aspect ratio magnetic current sheets may be responsible for the localized large scattering of radio waves. The required shortest axis of the typical structures producing ESEs is of the same scale (∼au) as the gyroradii of ∼GeV CRs. In this Letter, we propose that the same magnetic/density sheets can produce large scattering of both CRs and radio waves. We demonstrate that the geometry and volume-filling factor of the sheets derived from quasar ESEs can explain the observed mean free path of GeV CRs without introducing free parameters. The model places constraints on the sheet geometry, such as straightness and large aspect ratio, and assumes that the statistics of the sheets are similar throughout the Galactic volume. We therefore discuss observational tests of the sheet model, which includes observations of echoes in pulsars and fast radio bursts, gravitationally lensed quasars, the distribution of ESE durations, and spatial correlations between ESE events and rotation measure fluctuations. Such tests will be enabled by upcoming wide-field radio instruments, including the Canadian Hydrogen Observatory and Radio-transient Detector and Deep Synoptic Array 2000 Antennas.

Kempski, Philipp [Princeton Univ., NJ (United Stat↗
NASA NTRS1984

1E 0104.2 + 3153 - A broad absorption-line QSO viewed through a giant elliptical galaxy

The optical identification of the X-ray source 1E 0104.2 + 3153 is complicated by the close projection of a broad absorption-line (BAL) QSO (z = 2.027) 10 arcsec from a giant elliptical galaxy (z = 0.111) at the center of a compact group of galaxies. At only 1.2 de Vaucouleur radii (16 kpc for H sub 0 = 100 km/s Mpc) this QSO-galaxy projection is the closest yet discovered. Based upon current observations, the source of the X-ray emission cannot be conclusively determined. Present in the BAL QSO spectrum are extremely strong Ca II H and K absorption lines due to the intervening galaxy, the first optical detection of the cold interstellar medium in an elliptical galaxy. The strength of these lines (EW = 2 and 1 A) requires observation through several interstellar clouds in the line of sight to the QSO. By its proximity to the central regions of the elliptical galaxy and the relative distances of the galaxy and QSO, this QSO is a particularly good candidate for observing dramatic transient gravitational lensing phenomena due to halo stars in the foreground galaxy.

Stocke, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS1984

When clusters are superclusters

Recent research on substructure in clusters and superclusters of galaxies is critically surveyed, with an emphasis on the distinction (based on physical size and dynamic state) between the two classes of structures. The cosmological and large-scale structural implications of substructure in rich clusters are analyzed, using N-body-simulation results, and illustrated for the clusters A98 and A548. Consideration is also given to gravitational lensing of distant quasars by intervening clusters and the interpretation of the matter distribution on scales larger than about 5 Mpc. It is determined that A98 and A548 are superclusters.

Geller, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

New X-ray and optical observations of the X-ray discovered QSO-galaxy pair 1E 0104.2 + 3153

New X-ray and optical observations are presented of the QSO-galaxy pair 1E 0104.2 + 3153, originally discovered as a serendipitous source in the Einstein Observatory Medium Sensitivity Survey (Gioia et al., 1984). Results from an extremely deep Exosat observation are used to suggest that the QSO rather than the compact group of galaxies is the optical counterpart of the IPC source. High-resolution (1-A) spectroscopy of the broad-absorption-line QSO, which fails to confirm the Ca II H and K absorption features reported by Stocke et al., (1984), is presented and discussed. The presence of broad absorption lines in the QSO spectrum may indicate that intrinsic absorption is the cause of the nondetection of this source in the soft Exosat energy band. Optical monitoring of the QSO over a 2-yr period indicates variability. Possible interpretations of this phenomenon are intrinsic luminosity variation or a cessation of a gravitational lensing effect acting at the time of the Einstein observation.

Gioia, I. M.↗