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Preliminary estimates are prepared of the weighting functions of the infrared bands of methane, ammonia, and hydrogen for the Jovian atmosphere. Together with the infrared spectral emission observations of Jupiter, these weighting functions are used to obtain a rough estimate of the vertical temperature profile in the Jovian atmosphere.
This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.
This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.
The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has used various optical assets to acquire photometric data of Earth-orbiting objects to define the orbital debris environment. To better characterize and model optical data acquired from ground-based telescopes, the Optical Measurements Center (OMC) at NASA Johnson Space Center emulates illumination conditions seen in space by using equipment and techniques that parallel telescopic observations and source-target-sensor orientations. One of the OMC goals is to improve the size calculation used for optical data by developing an optical-based Size Estimation Model. The current size estimation requires applying a Lambertian phase function, a set albedo value, and range to the observed magnitude. The first step to improving the sampled brightness of laboratory targets is to remove aspect-angle dependencies. Then, the volume of possible object viewing angles is sampled at 21 combinations of azimuth and elevation angles for each solar phase angle. Finally, the acquired images are input into an image processing program that generates approximations for the object’s Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) and phase function. The BRDF is a radiometric concept that identifies an object’s material composition by matching a BRDF approximated with photometric data collected by ground-based telescopes with a BRDF generated experimentally from a known object in the laboratory. This paper presents the initial BRDF and phase function approximations for various fragments/targets acquired in the OMC and how the findings will be incorporated into ODPO models. A Lambertian sphere is used as a baseline for initial size estimation calculations and phase function comparisons. Spacecraft materials and fragments from hypervelocity laboratory impact tests are also presented to compare against the current assumed Lambertian phase function used for size estimates. This paper presents the preliminary phase function analysis and plan forward to utilize a laboratory-based phase function to improve the current optical size estimates using BRDF measurements for a large volume of targets composed of various shapes, sizes, and materials.
An approximation theory is presented for the LQG (Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian) optimal control problem for flexible structures whose distributed models have bounded input and output operators. The main purpose of the theory is to guide the design of finite dimensional compensators that approximate closely the optimal compensator. The optimal LQG problem separates into an optimal linear-quadratic regulator problem and an optimal state estimation problem. The solution of the former problem lies in the solution to an infinite dimensional Riccati operator equation. The approximation scheme approximates the infinite dimensional LQG problem with a sequence of finite dimensional LQG problems defined for a sequence of finite dimensional, usually finite element or modal, approximations of the distributed model of the structure. Two Riccati matrix equations determine the solution to each approximating problem. The finite dimensional equations for numerical approximation are developed, including formulas for converting matrix control and estimator gains to their functional representation to allow comparison of gains based on different orders of approximation. Convergence of the approximating control and estimator gains and of the corresponding finite dimensional compensators is studied. Also, convergence and stability of the closed-loop systems produced with the finite dimensional compensators are discussed. The convergence theory is based on the convergence of the solutions of the finite dimensional Riccati equations to the solutions of the infinite dimensional Riccati equations. A numerical example with a flexible beam, a rotating rigid body, and a lumped mass is given.
A function space approach is used to develop a theory for estimation of the errors inherent in an elliptic partial differential equation model for a distributed parameter system. By establishing knowledge of the inevitable deficiencies in the model, the error estimates provide a foundation for updating the model. The function space solution leads to a specification of a method for computation of the model error estimates and development of model error analysis techniques for comparison between actual and estimated errors. The paper summarizes the model error estimation approach as well as an application arising in the area of modeling for static shape determination of large flexible systems.
System optimization techniques - motion stability study on Liapunov function application to finding estimators and connection with differential equations
A document describes an algorithm created to estimate the mass placed on a sample verification sensor (SVS) designed for lunar or planetary robotic sample return missions. A novel SVS measures the capacitance between a rigid bottom plate and an elastic top membrane in seven locations. As additional sample material (soil and/or small rocks) is placed on the top membrane, the deformation of the membrane increases the capacitance. The mass estimation algorithm addresses both the calibration of each SVS channel, and also addresses how to combine the capacitances read from each of the seven channels into a single mass estimate. The probabilistic approach combines the channels according to the variance observed during the training phase, and provides not only the mass estimate, but also a value for the certainty of the estimate. SVS capacitance data is collected for known masses under a wide variety of possible loading scenarios, though in all cases, the distribution of sample within the canister is expected to be approximately uniform. A capacitance-vs-mass curve is fitted to this data, and is subsequently used to determine the mass estimate for the single channel s capacitance reading during the measurement phase. This results in seven different mass estimates, one for each SVS channel. Moreover, the variance of the calibration data is used to place a Gaussian probability distribution function (pdf) around this mass estimate. To blend these seven estimates, the seven pdfs are combined into a single Gaussian distribution function, providing the final mean and variance of the estimate. This blending technique essentially takes the final estimate as an average of the estimates of the seven channels, weighted by the inverse of the channel s variance.
Thermal properties of high-temperature fibrous insulation materials were estimated from transient thermal tests using an inverse heat transfer technique. Transient temperature data from an experimental set up was collected and a simple, one-dimensional numerical model was constructed to replicate the temperatures within the test assembly. The Continuous Genetic Algorithm optimization technique in conjunction with a numerical thermal model and transient test data was used to estimate coefficients of a functional representation of the thermal property. The thermal properties, i.e., thermal conductivity and specific heat, of an alumina insulation felt were estimated over the temperature range of 300 K to 1700 K at various constant static pressures in nitrogen gas and compared with published data. The resulting thermal property estimates were within 10% of published values over the entire temperature range at various pressures. The methodology, application, and results are presented.
Optimum estimates of nonobservable random variables or random processes which influence the rate functions of a discrete time jump process (DTJP) are derived. The approach used is based on the a posteriori probability of a nonobservable event expressed in terms of the a priori probability of that event and of the sample function probability of the DTJP. Thus a general representation is obtained for optimum estimates, and recursive equations are derived for minimum mean-squared error (MMSE) estimates. In general, MMSE estimates are nonlinear functions of the observations. The problem is considered of estimating the rate of a DTJP when the rate is a random variable with a beta probability density function and the jump amplitudes are binomially distributed. It is shown that the MMSE estimates are linear. The class of beta density functions is rather rich and explains why there are insignificant differences between optimum unconstrained and linear MMSE estimates in a variety of problems.
This review was prepared in support of a geothermal planning activity of the County of Imperial. Engineering features of potential geothermal development are outlined. Acreage requirements for drilling and powerplants are estimated, as are the costs for wells, fluid transmission pipes, and generating stations. Rough scaling relationships are developed for cost factors as a function of reservoir temperature. Estimates are made for cooling water requirements, and possible sources of cooling water are discussed. Availability and suitability of agricultural wastewater for cooling are emphasized. The utility of geothermal resources for fresh water production in the Imperial Valley is considered.
The structure function of rotation measures of extragalactic sources and birefringence in interstellar scintillations are used to investigate variations in the interstellar magnetic field on length scales of about 0.01-100 pc and 10 to the 11th cm, respectively. Model structure functions are derived for the case of a power-law power spectrum of irregularities in the quantity (n(e)B), and an estimate for the structure function is computed for several regions of the sky using data on extragalactic sources. The results indicate an outer angular scale for rotation measure (RM) variations of not less than about 5 deg (a linear scale of about 9-90 pc at a distance of 0.1-1 kpc). There is also evidence for RM variations on angular scales as small as 1 arcmin, but it cannot be determined whether these are intrinsic to the source or caused by the interstellar medium. The effect of a random, Faraday-active medium on the diffraction of radio waves is derived, and an upper limit to the variations in n(e)B on a length scale of 10 to the 11th cm is obtained from available observations.
Analysis of measurements of the scattered and direct components of Voyager 1 radio occultation signals at 3.5 and 13 cm wavelengths yield estimates of the distribution functions of supracentimeter-size particles and thickness of relatively broad regions in Saturn's rings. If mearurements of signal amplitude at a shorter wavelength are combined with the previously analyzed data, the shape of the distribution functions characterizing the smaller particles can be constrained. If size distributions of arbitrary form were considered, many solutions are found that are consistent with the three available observations of signal amplitude. The best-fit power law was calculated to the three observations at three wavelengths for several of the embedded Saturn ringlets. Mie scattering theory predicts that the measured phase of the radio occultation signal is highly sensitive to particles ranging from 0.1 to 1.0 wavelengths in size, thus additional constraints on the subcentimeter-size distribution functions for both the Saturn and Uranus rings can in principle be derived from radio phase measurements.
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Future NASA exploration missions will increasingly require sampling, in-situ analysis and possibly the return of material to Earth for further tests. One of the challenges to addressing this need is the ability to drill using for low axial loading while operating from light weight platforms (e.g., lander, rover, etc.) as well as operate at planets with low gravity. For this purpose, the authors developed the Ultrasonic/Sonic Driller/Corer (USDC) jointly with Cybersonics Inc. Studies of the operation of the USDC at high power have shown there is a critical need to self-tune to maintain the operation of the piezoelectric actuator at resonance. Performing such tuning is encountered with difficulties and to address them an extremum-seeking control algorithm is being investigated. This algorithm is designed to tune the driving frequency of a time-varying resonating actuator subjected to both random and high-power impulsive noise disturbances. Using this algorithm the performance of the actuator is monitored on a time-scale that is compatible with its slowly time-varying physical characteristics. The algorithm includes a parameter estimator, which estimates the coefficients of a function that characterizes the quality factor of the USDC. Since the parameter estimator converges sufficiently faster than the time-varying drift of the USDC's physical parameters, the proposed extremum-seeking estimation and control algorithm is potentially applicable for use as a closed-loop health monitoring system. Specifically, this system may be programmed to automatically adjust the duty-cycle of the sinusoidal driver signal to guarantee that the quality factor of the USDC does not fall below a user-defined set-point. Such fault-tolerant functionality is especially important in automated drilling applications where it is essential not to inadvertently drive the piezoelectric ceramic crystals of the USDC beyond their capacities. The details of the algorithm and experimental results will be described and discussed in this paper.
Research in the correlative and noncorrelative approaches to image registration and the spectral estimation of corn canopy phytomass and water content is reported. Scene radiation research results discussed include: corn and soybean LANDSAT MSS classification performance as a function of scene characteristics; estimating crop development stages from MSS data; the interception of photosynthetically active radiation in corn and soybean canopies; costs of measuring leaf area index of corn; LANDSAT spectral inputs to crop models including the use of the greenness index to assess crop stress and the evaluation of MSS data for estimating corn and soybean development stages; field research experiment design data acquisition and preprocessing; and Sun-view angles studies of corn and soybean canopies in support of vegetation canopy reflection modeling.
The properties of very low luminosity active galactic nuclei are not well studied, and, in particular, their possible contribution to the diffuse X-ray background is not known. In the present investigation, an X-ray luminosity function for the range from 10 to the 39th to 10 to the 42.5th ergs/s is constructed. The obtained X-ray luminosity function is integrated to estimate the contribution of these very low luminosity active galaxies to the diffuse X-ray background. The construction of the X-ray luminosity function is based on data obtained by Keel (1983) and some simple assumptions about optical and X-ray properties.
In many realistic data filtering problems, the cross correlation of the state estimation error and the state forcing function is unknown due to the poor knowledge of the time history of the forcing function. In this paper, the conservative and minimal approximation to the cross correlation terms is presented. It requires only the knowledge of the estimation error covariance and the forcing function covariance, with the choice of an associated free parameter left to the user. If the estimation error covariance and/or the forcing function covariance are bounded from above but not known exactly, the cross correlation approximation using those upper bounds remains conservative. This cross correlation approximation leads to a conservative approximation to the estimation error covariance matrix differential equation between measurement times. The free parameter is determined as the analytic solution to an associated optimal control problem. The procedure is expanded to include discrete linear measurement incorporation.